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Goucher, Wong, Wu - Subway cleanliness
- 1. Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions Drew Goucher, William Wong, Po-Hsien Wu May 8, 2019
- 2. Overview • Why? • Declining subway ridership • Possible Causes • Riders don’t feel safe (crime) • System is dirty • Poor Service • Construction • More new modes available We chose to focus our research on safety and sanitary conditions. Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 2
- 3. Methodology • Conduct a survey on Qualtrics • Estimate a model • Propose a new system • Determine cost • Use model to estimate benefits Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 3
- 4. Survey • Survey Design • Qualtrics Survey with attention checks • Respondents recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk from CT, PA, NY, NJ • 333 validated respondents • Questions • Respondents provided personal data (income, trip length, access to personal car, etc.) • They provided estimates of the cost (to them) of using each of 5 modes • They were asked to rate the security and sanitary conditions of each, and state their choice • Each respondent was given 5 additional scenarios (subway settings) and asked to provide a mode choice, while ranking the Security and Sanitary Condition of the setting specifically Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 4
- 5. Survey Summary of Results • Mode Choice and Average Rating of Each (Security + Sanitary) • Subway – 73.9% (246/333) 3.1 Safety 1.9 Sanitary • Bus – 9.0% (30/333) 3.2 Safety 2.5 Sanitary • Taxi/Uber/Lyft/Via/Etc. – 7.8% (26/333) 3.6 Safety 3.8 Sanitary • Bikeshare – 0.6% (2/333) 2.6 Safety 3.3 Sanitary • Personal Auto – 8.7% (29/333) 4.3 Safety 4.8 Sanitary Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 5 Subway 73.9% Bus 9.0% Taxi 7.8% Bike 0.6% Auto 8.7% *All Safety and Sanitary Ratings from 1 (Worst) to 5 (Best)
- 6. Survey Summary of Results – Provided Settings: Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 6
- 7. System Design (Old) Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 7
- 8. System Design (New) Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 8
- 9. Estimating the Cost of Improvements • Doubling the Frequency of “Barn” cleaning • From every 8-10 weeks to 4-5 • Improve Terminal Cleaning from “light” to “moderate” We estimate these costs by doubling the number of Cleaners. • Estimate $68.6M in costs to do this We make the assumption that this can improve cleanliness by 1 point on a 5 point scale. Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 9
- 10. Next Steps • Estimate Mixed Logit Model (Panel Data) • Use simulation to develop simulated Betas based on the model • Validate model • Check estimated probabilities against sample population’s actual results • Apply model and existing ridership data to new system • Estimate change in ridership/utility/revenue with new system inputs for Sanitary Conditions • Make a final recommendation Improving Subway Ridership by Enhancing Sanitary and Security Conditions 10
- 11. Questions?
Editor's Notes
- Why? Declining subway ridership. Some of the passengers are concerned about safety and sanitary conditions. Thus, we want to understand the how those conditions affect behavior of the traveler in NY metropolitan region.
- 40 hours/week x 52 weeks x 1,076 CED Cleaners x $30.665 hourly rate