This research report provides an overview and investment rationale for Godfrey Phillips India Ltd (GPIL). The summary is as follows:
1) GPIL is one of the largest cigarette companies in India and owns popular brands like Four Square, Red & White, and North Pole. It also distributes Marlboro cigarettes in India under an agreement with Philip Morris.
2) The report recommends buying GPIL at current levels, citing the strong growth in its cigarette sales and ability to pass on excise tax increases. It expects the cigarette business and overall revenues to continue growing robustly.
3) In addition to cigarettes, GPIL is expanding into other businesses like tea, pan masala, and retail,
Alba Casta Pharma Solutions, India possesses brand SugrLite, which is capable of bringing disruption in FMCG sector. Combined sale potential of SugrLite brand is USD $8-10 billions per annum.
AlCaS invites interested parties to invest as seed funds in this exciting opportunity.
Discuss these opportunities at arvind.mittal@albacasta.co.in
Alba Casta Pharma Solutions, India possesses brand SugrLite, which is capable of bringing disruption in FMCG sector. Combined sale potential of SugrLite brand is USD $8-10 billions per annum.
AlCaS invites interested parties to invest as seed funds in this exciting opportunity.
Discuss these opportunities at arvind.mittal@albacasta.co.in
marico description and it is divided into hair care health care and skin care also included with the future growth and the international boundaries.........
Portfolio
Braxxon India Ltd. is the most smart, innovative, highly competitive company with a strong mental outlook and visionary approach towards future.
Our introduction in the marketing arena with Presty Coconut and Amla Oil, BIL is a grand success . This has inspired us to take huge leaps spanning multiple brands in many distinct categories such as soaps, detergents, shampoos, skin care products, toothpastes, deodorant sprays, cosmetics, packaged foods and beverages for further growth in marketing. BIL is successfully planning to be a part of the day to day life of many customers across India. We desire to make all the brands associated with us a household name very soon. Our endeavour is to cater the ever growing middle class consumer population to fulfil their everyday needs and desire for good quality products.
Portfolio
Braxxon India Ltd. is the most smart, innovative, highly competitive company with a strong mental outlook and visionary approach towards future.
Our introduction in the marketing arenawith Presty Coconut and AmlaOil, BIL is a grand success.This has inspired us to take huge leaps spanning multiple brands in many distinct categories such as soaps, detergents, shampoos, skin care products, toothpastes, deodorant sprays, cosmetics, packaged foods and beverages for further growth in marketing. BIL is successfully planning to be a part of the day to day life of many customers across India. We desire to make all the brands associated with us a household name very soon.Our endeavour is to cater the ever growing middle class consumer population to fulfil their everyday needs and desire for good quality products.
marico description and it is divided into hair care health care and skin care also included with the future growth and the international boundaries.........
Portfolio
Braxxon India Ltd. is the most smart, innovative, highly competitive company with a strong mental outlook and visionary approach towards future.
Our introduction in the marketing arena with Presty Coconut and Amla Oil, BIL is a grand success . This has inspired us to take huge leaps spanning multiple brands in many distinct categories such as soaps, detergents, shampoos, skin care products, toothpastes, deodorant sprays, cosmetics, packaged foods and beverages for further growth in marketing. BIL is successfully planning to be a part of the day to day life of many customers across India. We desire to make all the brands associated with us a household name very soon. Our endeavour is to cater the ever growing middle class consumer population to fulfil their everyday needs and desire for good quality products.
Portfolio
Braxxon India Ltd. is the most smart, innovative, highly competitive company with a strong mental outlook and visionary approach towards future.
Our introduction in the marketing arenawith Presty Coconut and AmlaOil, BIL is a grand success.This has inspired us to take huge leaps spanning multiple brands in many distinct categories such as soaps, detergents, shampoos, skin care products, toothpastes, deodorant sprays, cosmetics, packaged foods and beverages for further growth in marketing. BIL is successfully planning to be a part of the day to day life of many customers across India. We desire to make all the brands associated with us a household name very soon.Our endeavour is to cater the ever growing middle class consumer population to fulfil their everyday needs and desire for good quality products.
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How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
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financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
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Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
Buy Godfrey Philips India for a target of Rs3897 - HDFC Sec
1. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 1
Scrip Code Industry CMP Recommendation Target Time Horizon
GODPHIEQNR Cigarettes Rs. 3221.1 Buy at CMP and add on dips to Rs. 2853‐2992 Rs. 3897 1‐2 quarters
We expect GPIL’s net sales & PAT to grow at a CAGR of 18.6% & 30.5% respectively over FY13‐15. We expect cigarettes
business to continue to grow at a robust rate despite regulatory hurdles like ban on smoking in public places and burdensome
tax structure, likely to be driven by demand inelasticity, structural shifts in the Indian economy of rising disposable income,
improvements in standard of living, rising urbanization and aspirational needs. We feel GPIL would not find it very difficult to
pass on the excise hikes to the consumers and the impact on volumes could be only for short term. GPIL is scaling up its other
businesses like Tea, Confectionery, Chewing tobacco and Retail rapidly by making huge investments and expects them to
perform well going forward. Once the segments become profitable, GPIL’s margins could improve significantly. Exports
growth has improved over the last two years and with the significant efforts of GPIL to expand the overseas reach, we expect
the exports business to grow at a robust rate going forward.
We expect the overall margins to improve on the back of cost rationalisation, margin improvement in cigarettes business &
gradual reduction in losses expected in Tea & Related segment.
Considering its sound business model, its ability to generate strong cash flows in cigarettes despite regulatory hurdles & high
tax burden and diversification into new business, which are not prone to government intervention, we feel that GPIL deserves
to trade at better valuations. Further the Indian market offers better scope in terms of likely increase in cigarettes volume
growth due to demographic factors and also due to the absence of consumer litigation in India. Strong cash flows, healthy and
improving return ratios, lower market cap to sales ratio further provide support to the valuations.
We feel that GPIL could trade at 14xFY15E EPS, which gives us price target of Rs. 3897. We feel investors could buy this scrip at
current level and add it on dips in the price band of Rs. 2853‐2992 (10.25‐10.75xFY15E EPS) for our price target over the next
one to two quarters. Promoter restructuring (i.e. if KK Modi or Philip Morris buy majority stake in GPIL) could result in value
unlocking and further re‐rating in the stock price.
Particulars (Rs. in Mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 16024.5 18728.2 20524.6 24797.0 28847.5
% Growth y‐o‐y 15.8 16.9 9.6 20.8 16.3
Operating Profit 2757.2 3261.5 3269.4 4299.7 5291.2
% Growth y‐o‐y 58.4 18.3 0.2 31.5 23.1
PAT (Adjusted) 1661.3 1815.0 1700.2 2326.3 2894.7
% Growth y‐o‐y 44.4 9.3 ‐6.3 36.8 24.4
EPS (Fully Diluted) 159.8 174.5 163.5 223.7 278.4
PE 20.2 18.5 19.7 14.4 11.6
(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)
RETAIL RESEARCH STOCK NOTE
Price Chart
Stock Details
BSE Code 500163
NSE Code GODFRYPHLP
Bloomberg GP IN
Price (Rs) on May 14, 2014 3221.1
Equity Capital (Rs Mn) 104.0
Face Value (Rs) 10.0
Eq. Shares O/s (mn) 10.4
Market Cap (Rs Mn.) 33,496.2
Book Value (Rs) 1016.8
Avg. Volume (52 Week) 1,165
52 wk H/L (Rs) 3660.6/ 2500
Shareholding Pattern
(As on March 31, 2014) % Holding
Promoters 71.1
FII 10.0
Institutions 3.3
Others (incl. body corporate) 15.6
Total 100.0
May 15, 2014
Godfrey Phillips India Ltd.
Mehernosh K. Panthaki
Research Analyst ‐ FMCG, IT, Midcaps
mehernosh.panthaki@hdfcsec.com
2. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 2
Company Overview
Incorporated in 1936, the K. K. Modi group promoted Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. (GPIL) is one of the largest players in the
domestic cigarette industry. The company owns some of the most popular cigarette brands in the country like Four Square,
Red and White, North Pole, Cavanders and Tipper. Over the years, GPIL has set its own benchmarks in innovation with
revolutionary brands like Stellar, the first slim cigarette and I‐gen, the first euro norm cigarette in India. GPIL also
manufactures and distributes iconic brand Marlboro in an arrangement with Philip Morris to manufacture and distribute its
brands, including the iconic Marlboro cigarettes, available from around 65,000 retail outlets across India. GPIL also has a
formidable presence in the cigar market with a market share of over 50% and in recent years it has ramped up activity in this
relatively untapped segment. The cigar division is the largest importer of Cigars in India, and appointed distributor of world
famous companies like Habanos SA (Cuba), Altadis (SA), Oettinger Davidoff (Switzerland), Altadis (USA), Scandinavian Tobacco
Group, and Villiger Sons (Switzerland). The entire range of renowned brands , hand and machine rolled, like Cohiba,
Montecristo, Romeo y Julieta, Partagas, Guantanamera, Davidoff, Phillies, Hav‐A‐Tampa, Don Diego, Santa Damiana, Flor de
Copan, Henri Wintermans etc. are now available for the discerning consumer. The company is having an exclusive cigar shop in
Delhi and plans to open one in Bangalore, Express Kiosks in Delhi and NCR, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Kolkata. The company has
interest in other businesses like in tea, pan masala and confectionary.
Product Profile:
The company’s business can be categorized into two segments, i) Cigarettes & Tobacco products and ii) Tea & Related
Products. The cigarettes & tobacco products segment accounts for 88.9% (in 9MFY14; 89.9% in FY13) of GPIL’s total revenue.
The balance is contributed by diverse businesses like Tea, Confectionery, Chewing Products, and Retail (included under Tea &
Related products). The table below gives a brief overview of GPIL’s businesses & its brands.
Product Category Brands Description
Cigarettes Stellar It is India’s first slim cigarette. It has been specially engineered to deliver low nicotine
without a compromise in taste and flavor.
Four Square This is GPIL’s flagship brand. GPIL has different brands in this category namely; Four Square
Kings, Four Square Lights, Four Square Premiums, Four Square Special Filter, Four Square
Fine Blend, Four Square Rich Gold.
Red & White One of the most renowned brand names of the nation, it has been rated in the top 50
brands in the FMCG sector.
Cavanders Filter variant of cavanders, which acts as an economical upgrade option to non‐filter
smokers.
Tipper Under the new excise regime, Tipper was introduced in the filter genre at an extremely
affordable price.
North Pole North Pole is the largest selling menthol cigarette in India.
Tea Symphony A premium assortment of original brews and flavours is available in three variants, Assam
3. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 3
Premium Teas Tea, Darjeeling Tea and Green Tea.
Super Cup A mid premium segment brand of Tea City is a blend from sprawling tea gardens of Assam
which gives a full bodied brew. It is for them who like their tea ‘strong’. Super Cup comes in
two formats: Leaf & Dust
Samovar Samovar Green tea is a special blend of pure long leaves.
Super Cup Duet Along with strong granular CTC one can enjoy the aromatic Darjeeling tea, which comes in a
pouch inside.
Utsav An economy brand that comes in leaf as Utsav Chai & dust variant as Utsav Dust Chai.
Rangoli It is an economy brand that comes in two variants to suit all taste palates – Leaf and Dust.
Madhuban
Festive Pack
Madhuban Assam Tea is a black tea with invigorating, malty flavor and a beautiful ruby‐
amber hue. Madhuban Darjeeling Tea gives the taste of luxury and has golden hued liquor
and aromatic muscatel flavor. Madhuban Nilgiri Tea is a dark and intensely fragrant brew,
with a full bodied flavour.
Chewing Products
[Pan Masala]
Pan Vilas Launched in January 2010. Magnesium Carbonate‐free pan masala which is compliant to the
stringent requirements of PFA rules
Confectionery Funda Mint &
Funda Goli
Funda Mint available in four flavours saunf fresh, double thanda, Kaccha Aam and Rasili
Lychee. Funda Goli available in two flavours viz; Kaccha Aam & Rasili Lychee.
Retail 24X7 24X7 Stores are 24‐hour convenience chain of stores located in the central areas of the city
of Delhi offering wide variety of products and services to customers. Providing international
shopping experience, the store stocks packaged foods & beverages, personal & home care
items, has a pharmacy & other service counters where one can pay bills or courier
documents.
While the company generates most of its revenues from domestic business (83% of the total sales), GPIL has also spread its
footprint into the overseas markets. Through its International Business Division (17% of the total sales), GPIL collaborates with
some of the top players in the international tobacco industry to assist them in marketing their products and providing various
professional and expert services including contract manufacturing, cut tobacco, smoke analysis and various other consultancy
services. Many countries from the Middle East to West Africa, South East Africa, South East Asia, East Europe, Australia, South
America, Southeast Asia & Central America have been added on to its portfolio of exporting cigarettes as well as cut tobacco.
GPIL’s has five manufacturing facilities, located in Ghaziabad (near Delhi), Andheri (Mumbai), Rabale (Mumbai), Baramati and
Bazpur (UP), and a state‐of‐the‐ art R&D centre in Mumbai and a tobacco buying unit in Guntur (Andhra Pradesh). Cigarette
plant located at Guldhar (Ghaziabad) is owned by Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, International Tobacco Company Ltd.
The company’s products are distributed over an extensive India wide network of more than 520 distributors and 800,000 retail
outlets. With the Corporate Office in Delhi, the Company has offices over 8‐9 locations in India. GPIL has two major
stakeholders, one of India's leading industrial houses ‐ the K. K. Modi Group, which holds 46% stake and one of the world's
largest tobacco companies, Philip Morris Inc, US, which holds 25.1%. Nationally, GPIL enjoys ~12‐13% market share in
cigarettes in terms of volume and 11‐12% share in value.
4. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 4
K. K. Modi Group
The K. K. Modi Group is part of Modi Enterprises that was founded by Rai Bahadur Gujarmal Modi in 1933. The group spans a
diverse range of businesses’ which include agro‐chemicals, tobacco, tea and beverages, education, entertainment, direct
selling, network marketing and gourmet restaurants. These businesses further include steel, sugar, textiles, chemicals, tyres,
computers, copiers, cosmetics, telecommunications, entertainment, homecare, pharmaceuticals and on line lottery.
Philip Morris Inc (PMI)
Philip Morris Inc. joined hands with the K. K. Modi Group in 1979. Philip Morris, the owner of some of the world's most
respected brands including Marlboro, is one of the largest shareholders in GPIL and has an agreement with the Company to
provide technological services and assistance in all areas of business.
In 1968 Philip Morris International Finance Corp, a wholly owned subsidiary of Philip Morris Inc., U.S.A. acquired full ownership
of Godfrey Phillips Ltd., London, U.K., which was the Holding Company of Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. till the issue of shares to
the Indian public during 1975. As a result of acquisition of Godfrey Phillips Ltd., London, U.K. as above, Philip Morris Inc.
through its wholly owned subsidiary, Philip Morris International Finance Corporation became the Holding Company of GPIL.
After the public issue in 1975, offer for sale to Indian public in 1979 and a rights issue in 1981 the shareholding of Philip Morris
International Finance Corp in GPIL came down to 35.93% & further to 25.1% post the alliance of GPIL with Philip Morris.
Subsidiary Companies: GPIL has six subsidiaries (two direct & four indirect). International Tobacco Company Ltd & Chase
Investments Ltd are direct subsidiaries. The indirect subsidiaries include Kashyap Metal & Allied Industries Ltd (66.23% stake),
Unique Space Developers Ltd. (66.67%), Gopal Krishna Infra & Real Estate Ltd. (66.67%) and Rajputana Infra Corp Ltd.
(66.23%). All the direct & indirect subsidiaries have been incorporated in India. International Tobacco Company (which owns a
plant at Guldhar, Ghaziabad) manufactures cigarettes on behalf of GPIL, which account for 57.6% of GPIL’s total sales quantity
of cigarettes. GPIL pays manufacturing charges (Rs. 403.9 mn in FY13) to International Tobacco for manufacturing on its
behalf, which is netted off in the consolidated accounts. Chase investments & Kashyap Metal revenues in FY13 were negligible
at Rs. 1.7 mn & Rs. 8.7 mn respectively, while PAT stood at Rs. 2.1 mn for Chase Investments and loss of Rs. 4.9 mn in Kashyap
Metal.
Associate companies: GPIL has three Indian associate companies viz; Success Principles India Ltd. (48.89% stake), IPM India
wholesale trading private Ltd. (24.8% stake) and KKM Management Centre Private Ltd (36.75% stake).
5. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 5
Investment Rationale
Cigarettes business doing well despite regulatory hurdles
GPIL is the second largest player (after ITC) in the Indian cigarette industry. The company owns some of the most popular
cigarette brands in the country like Four Square, Red and White, North Pole, Cavanders and Tipper. GPIL also manufactures
and distributes iconic brand Marlboro in an arrangement with Philip Morris to manufacture and distribute its brands, including
the iconic Marlboro cigarettes, available from around 65,000 retail outlets across India. Nationally, GPIL enjoys ~12‐13%
market share in cigarettes in terms of volume and 11‐12% share in value. The business is a major growth driver for GPIL,
accounting for 88.9% of its total net revenues (in 9MFY14). The company continues to channelize its efforts and resources
towards consolidating its presence in existing markets (strong presence in northern and western markets) & expanding in new
markets in the eastern and southern regions, i.e. West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, and is confident of achieving the desired
growth targets. GPIL constantly endeavours to benefit from inherent capabilities to introduce innovative products suited to
customer preferences and its products in new markets have been widely appreciated by its consumers and trade partners.
The domestic cigarettes business was subject to increased rates of central and state taxes over the last two years. In FY13 &
FY14 Union Budget, there was an increase of ~18% in excise duty on cigarettes (except for cigarettes less than 65 mm).
Although the resultant pricing pressure caused domestic volumes to decline, GPIL still managed to register a growth of over
5% in terms of value in FY13 and also captured a healthy market share of the newly‐created 64 mm segment. In 9MFY14, the
growth was better as the overall gross sales cigarettes and tobacco related products grew by 18.8% (domestic cigarette sales
form a major portion, 80‐85%). The growth was driven by steep price hikes undertaken (ITC has hiked cigarettes prices by
~15% on weighted average basis in 9MFY14, hence we assume that GPIL must also have undertaken price hikes to the same
extent). GPIL has successfully responded by reiterating collective representation, product customization, diversification and
geographical expansion. Despite the influence of various environmental factors, GPIL has maintained its growth momentum.
The company has been able to generate robust revenue streams over the years despite onerous tax structure. Also the
government ban on smoking in public and pictorial warnings on the cigarette pack in the past has shown a minimal impact on
the cigarette revenues of GPIL. Over the last 4 years (FY09‐13), GPIL’s domestic cigarettes sales have grown at a CAGR of 11%.
GPIL is working on a roadmap to strengthen key brands like, Four Square, Red & White and Cavanders, through a combination
of product innovation, distribution‐led initiatives and consumer engagement programs. New research methodologies are
being used to understand consumers in a more holistic manner. It is also embarking on a series of critical strategic projects to
improve brand saliency and offer unique value propositions to consumers which would help it place its key brands at a higher
growth path.
6. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 6
Future growth in cigarettes is dependent on future income growth of the population at large. A large portion of India is set to
emerge from “Deprived” and “Aspirers” to the “Seekers” and “Strivers” class in the next twenty years, raising the number of
potential cigarette smokers, as consumers switch from bidis to cigarettes. While we do not expect an inspiring growth in the
cigarettes business on the back of higher tax incidence and regulatory hurdles like ban on cigarettes advertising, government
ban on smoking in public and pictorial warnings on the cigarette pack, the structural shifts in the Indian economy of rising
disposable income, improvements in standard of living, rising urbanisation and aspiration needs will lead to a decent rise in
consumption of cigarettes over the next few years. Further the compulsion of pictoral warnings on the cigarette packets have
had / likely to have a minimal impact on the sales volumes largely due to India having significant sales of single stick purchases
of cigarettes and also because smoking is an addiction and not easy to quit.
Being one of the leading players in the Indian cigarettes industry, GPIL is expected to benefit from the expected rise in the
consumption of cigarettes in India. Moreover, the addition of PMI’s Marlboro to its cigarettes portfolio is expected to further
boost its turnover. We expect GPIL’s overall cigarettes sales to grow at a decent rate going forward. While there can be
another round of excise duty hike (steep hike unlikely) in the upcoming union budget (to be presented by new government in
July 2104), we expect the impact on the volume growth to remain only for a few quarters. Further traction in 64 mm cigarettes
launched by GPIL (which has lower excise duty) could prevent sharp contraction in volumes in the event of steep hike in excise
duties. In medium to long run, we expect the volume growth to improve once customers get accustomed to steep price hikes.
7. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 7
Leveraging its position by diversifying into other business, which are growing at a fast pace
In order to reduce its dependency on its highly Government regulated cigarettes business, GPIL has been leveraging its
position by diversifying into other businesses like Tea, Confectionery, Retail and Chewing products. All these businesses are
classified under the segment “Tea & Related Products”. The segment accounts for 11.1% to GPIL’s total net revenue (in
9MFY14; 10.1% in FY13) and has grown at a CAGR of 19.6% over FY09‐13. The tea business has been a major contributor to
the segment’s revenues (50.5% in FY13). The company has some of the well‐known tea brands in its portfolio like Symphony
Premium Teas, Super Cup, Samovar, Super Cup Duet, Utsav, Rangoli & Madhuban.
Tea segment: The tea segment has been marked with continuous growth, riding on the overall corporate strategy of
consolidation and expansion along with new portfolio development and product innovations. Post the slight dip witnessed in
FY12, the domestic tea business bounced back on track and recorded sales growth of 12% in FY13. The Company undertook
various initiatives such as launching new product offerings for both general and institutional customers and expanding modern
trade business with entry into new chains and trade formats, which contributed to the growth story. Apart from inroad made
into the HORECA, HTS (hot tea shops) and Railways, various other alternative distribution channels are being targeted for
business expansion. Heightened print mass media campaigns and ground activations have led to greater salience and traction
for the Tea City portfolio. Post complete automation, both the tea blending and packing units at Kolkata and Bazpur have
become ISO 22000:2005 certified. Supercup franchise rejuvenation progressed well on track with upgraded product quality
and contemporary packaging leading to a volume growth of 11% in FY13. Targeted innovative campaigns & offering have
helped in stabilizing and growing other franchises like Utsav and Samovar.
Confectionery: GPIL also has presence in the confectionery category (Funda Mint & Funda Goli brands). With its strong
distribution strength in the paan plus channel and impactful brand building initiatives, Funda Mint has achieved a decent share
of the paan plus channel over the last two years. Buoyed by Funda Mint’s success, GPIL also entered into the hard‐boiled
confectionery market with the launch of Funda Goli, in ‘Kaccha Aam’ and ‘Rasili Lychee’ flavours.
Retail business making steady progress: GPIL diversified into retail segment a few years back with the launch of Twenty Four
Seven Stores. Open round‐the‐clock selectively, these convenience stores serve as a one‐stop destination. Its range of
offerings comprise of fresh food, groceries, vegetables, RTE (ready to eat) meals, frozen food, wide assortment of beverages,
imported products, OTC pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, personal care products, travel accessories, pet food, toys, music, movies,
magazines, cigarettes, hukkas, gifts and souvenirs. It also offer a wide range of services which includes couriers domestic and
international, credit cards and utility bills payment, mobile recharge, DTH recharge, PVR movie tickets, Air, Rail & Bus tickets,
Drop boxes for cheque payments and various services. The business is making steady progress. GPIL is currently operating
through 35 stores spread across NCR and expects to more than double this number during the current year. New business
models are currently under evaluation with the help of Japanese consultants and the company has aim to scale greater heights
in times to come.
8. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 8
Chewing products: With a view to achieve its growth objectives, GPIL entered into Chewing Products category in Jan 2010
with the launch of Pan Masala brand “Pan Vilas”. This brand has set the benchmark for the Pan Masala Industry in many ways.
Firstly, it is free of Magnesium Carbonate, a banned substance and replaces the same with a natural alternate and it is India’s
first pan masala, which is made fully compliant with the stringent requirements of PFA (Prevention of Food Adulteration) rules.
Secondly, it is manufactured in a state‐of‐the‐art plant setup at Baramati, near Pune, which employs some of the world’s best
food processing technologies ‐ imported multi‐stage cleaning unit which removes finest of impurities, cutting edge Supari
roasting unit which ensures uniform crispness of supari and high speed packaging machines. Finally, the sales and marketing
strategies are based on in‐depth consumer, competitor and trade understanding, which has raised the bar in the manner this
category has been traditionally marketed.
GPIL had another good year for its Chewing business as in FY13, as it achieved turnover growth of 17.4%. This growth was
achieved in the backdrop of significant changes in the industry during the year including ban on Gutkha in most of the States in
India. This growth could have been still higher but for the surprise move by the Maharashtra government to cover tobacco‐
free pan masala category also under its order to ban Gutkha invoked in July 2012. Full implementation of the Gutkha ban is
expected to result in upsides in the pan masala business going forward. In FY13, GPIL entered the market in Jharkhand. While
‘Pan Vilas’ continues to be the flagship offering, an economy pan masala variant under the brand ‘Raag’ is in the process of
being launched in the markets like: UP, MP, Jharkhand, Orissa, and Gujarat. We are operating in zarda segment with the
brands ‘Swarn Vilas’ and ‘Tarana’. GPIL is looking to further streamline its operations to drive efficiency and contain costs
while strengthening distribution reach to tap into new markets, especially in rural segments and thereby improve market
share. The Company will look to enter newer segments within the chewing products category such as flavoured elaichi and
supari, and mouth freshener, in both premium and midpremium categories.
Overall sales growth of Tea & Related products segment to remain robust; however, could take time to breakeven: The tea
& related products segment’s revenues have grown at a robust rate over FY09‐13. Infact in FY13 & in 9MFY14, it has grown at
a faster rate by 40.2% & 41.5% respectively. However, the segment has struggled on the profitability front and has not yet
achieved a break‐even level. The segment is posting losses for quite some years, which is a cause of concern. This could be due
to higher ad spends being incurred to scale up the business size rapidly. While we expect the segment to continue to report
robust turnover growth (which is likely to be faster than cigarettes & tobacco products segment), it could take some more
time to breakeven. While the timing of the same is uncertain, once the segment starts adding to the bottomline, GPIL margins
could improve significantly. GPIL is looking at making its tea & Pan Vilas products the new growth drivers going forward.
9. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 9
1209.5
1388.3
1497.3
2099.8
1465
2072.5
17.7
14.8
7.9
40.2
41.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 9MFY13 9MFY14
Year End
Revenue (Rs. in Mn) % growth
Alliance with PMI has helped to have an access to the flagship brand “Marlboro” and PMI’s technology
GPIL has an arrangement with Philip Morris Inc (PMI), US [alliance entered into somewhere in April 2009] to manufacture and
distribute their brands, including the iconic Marlboro brand of cigarettes. In 2003, PMI had launched Marlboro, its largest
selling cigarette brand, in India on its own, through an arrangement with a local distributor, Barakat Foods & Tobacco (BFT).
Philip Morris directly imported the product, which was then distributed by BFT under a non‐exclusive agreement. The
company wanted to retain control over its flagship brand (Marlboro) due to which PMI sidelined its partner GPIL and formed
an alliance with BFT for distributing its Marlboro brand in India. This alliance between the PMI and BFT had created a rift
between the PMI and GPIL, which was affecting both the companies.
However, in 2009, PMI and its Indian JV partner, the KK Modi group settled their dispute over the sale of Marlboro cigarettes
in India, which we feel was a tactical retreat by both companies keen on gaining market share. As per the current alliance
between GPIL & PMI, GPIL has taken up manufacturing, distribution and sales of Marlboro while PMI has kept the marketing
duties. GPIL manufactures the brand in India by utilizing idle capacity at its plants in Mumbai and Ghaziabad and pays royalty
to PMI for using the manufacturing technologies. The brand has given GPIL an access to PMI’s technology & has added to
GPIL’s portfolio a high‐end brand with strong consumer pull, which it always lacked. The brand is available at selected cities in
India in approximately 65,000 retail outlets and has 7‐8 variants. With the expansion of retail outlets and launch of new
variants, we expect this brand to grow at a decent rate over the next few years, which would boost GPIL’s revenues & profits.
10. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 10
Strengthening its presence in the export market
Striving towards its vision to become a leading tobacco player in India and beyond, GPIL is fast strengthening its presence in
the export markets with successful new business ventures. Through its International Business Division (17% of the total sales),
GPIL collaborates with some of the top players in the international tobacco industry to assist them in marketing their
products and providing various professional and expert services including contract manufacturing, cut tobacco, smoke
analysis and various other consultancy services. Many countries from the Middle East to West Africa, South East Africa, South
East Asia, East Europe, Australia, South America, Southeast Asia and Central America have been added on to its portfolio of
exporting cigarettes as well as cut tobacco.
Further the company has been continuously developing new markets and adding many international buyers to its existing
portfolio of tea. It also exports Bulk and Specialty teas to Germany, USA, Japan, UAE, Kazakhstan & Iran with the objective to
expand our consumer base horizontally as well as vertically across segments. GPIL is continually making efforts to forge new
global contacts to facilitate tea exports. The primary tea brand, Tea City has already made a successful entry into the export
market. Under the brand, it offers Indian teas from various origins such as Assam, Darjeeling, Dooars, Terai, Nilgiris and South
India to meet the requirements of cup quality.
In order to further expand its overseas business, GPIL has set up a new factory at Rabale in the suburbs of Mumbai. The
facility would be able to meet the increasing demand from overseas markets (along with demand from domestic market)
The table below gives an overview of GPIL’s export performance since FY10:
Commodity / Product (Rs. in Mn) FY10 FY11 VAR [%] FY12 VAR [%] FY13 VAR [%]
Cigarette 711.5 1206.8 69.6 1076.3 ‐10.8 1092.2 1.5
Unmanufactured tobacco 2068.6 1044.2 ‐49.5 1265.3 21.2 1721.8 36.1
Cut tobacco 337.6 428.6 27.0 660.2 54.0 390.1 ‐40.9
Tea 34.0 161.1 373.8 183.6 14.0 392.7 113.9
Total 3151.7 2840.7 ‐9.9 3185.4 12.1 3596.8 12.9
After decline by 9.9% in FY11, the export business recovered well, growing by 12.1% & 12.9% in FY12 & FY13 respectively. The
growth was despite the recessionary and turbulent times in many parts of the importing world. In FY13, Cigarettes and cut
tobacco business faced challenges on account of increase in global manufacturing capacity, slowdown in some of the
consumption markets and new regulatory guidelines from Government in few of the importing countries. Despite the odds,
GPIL increased its customer base by adding quite a few new clients and introduced several new brands. Going forward, the
Company will increase focus on high volume markets. Its plans to set up offices in key overseas locations are on track. A long
term business plan is being worked out for a sustained growth of international cigarette business.
11. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 11
The unmanufactured tobacco, which accounts for a major portion of GPIL’s exports (48% in FY13), has grown at a robust rate
over the last two years. Tea exports also registered substantial growth in FY13 over the previous year. In wake of continued
business expansion with additional clients and entry to new geographies, exports catapulted itself to more than double in
terms of value. While in terms of volume, the business grew itself to 2339 tonnes in FY13 vs 1508 tonnes in FY12. The Tea
business has increased its revenue share significantly from 1% in FY10 to 11% in FY13.
With these significant efforts to expand the overseas reach, we expect the exports business to grow at a robust rate going
forward.
Decent growth expected in topline, margins to improve
We expect GPIL’s net sales to grow by 18.6% over FY13‐15, which is likely to be driven by robust growth in cigarettes & faster
growth in tea & related products segment.
We expect the operating profit to grow by 27.2% over FY13‐15, while OPM is estimated to improve from 15.9% in FY13 to
17.3% in FY14 and further to 18.3% in FY15. The margin expansion is likely to be driven by cost rationalisation, margin
improvement in cigarettes business & gradual reduction in losses expected in Tea & Related segment. PAT growth in 9MFY14
has been impressive at 47.3% (after adjusting for one‐time cost of Rs. 353.8 mn incurred towards VRS compensation paid).
Over FY13‐15, we expect the PAT to grow by 30.5%. PAT margins are estimated to improve from 8.3% in FY13 to 9.4% in FY14
and further to 10% in FY15.
12. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 12
Promoter restructuring could result in value unlocking
GPIL has two major stakeholders, one of India's leading industrial houses ‐ the K. K. Modi Group, which holds 46% stake and
one of the world's largest tobacco companies, Philip Morris Inc, US, which holds 25.1%. None of the promoters has a majority
stake at present. However, going forward, there is a possibility of either of the promoters acquiring majority stake in GPIL. This
could result in value unlocking. Majority stake by any of the promoters could result in better focus on revenue growth and
profitability. Aggressive steps could be taken towards distribution expansion, new launches of products / variants, which could
result in faster growth in revenues & profits and improved valuations. Philip Morris is the world's second‐biggest cigarette
seller behind state‐controlled China National Tobacco Corp. A majority stake by Philip Morris could result in faster re‐rating.
However timing of this is uncertain as the parties have to agree on valuations.
Competitive Profile
In the cigarettes business, which accounts for 88.9% to GPIL’s total revenues, GPIL faces stiff competition from other
established Indian cigarette players like ITC, VST & GTC. At CMP, GPIL trades at 15.1x TTM EPS, which is at a huge discount of
56% to ITC and at 23% discount to VST. The discount to ITC could be justified due to GPIL’s relatively much smaller business
size & market share and lower operating & PAT margins as compared to ITC. Further ITC’s dependence on cigarettes is lower,
as the business accounts for ~43% to the total revenue. ITC has presence in other businesses like FMCG, Hotels, Paper Board &
Packaging & Agri Business, which are not prone to frequent Government intervention. However, GPIL trades at a discount to
VST despite its relatively higher market share, lower tobacco leaf sales (which is profitable, but highly volatile) and larger
distribution network compared to VST. The premium could be due to its MNG tag. GPIL also faces competition from other
13. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 13
multinational cigarettes / tobacco players like British American Tobacco, Imperial Tobacco, Reynolds American, Altria Group
etc. GPIL trades at a discount to some of the global peers on TTM basis (GPIL’s PE: 15.1x TTM EPS; Global peers: Trading in the
range of 13‐17x TTM EPS).
GPIL’s business model is very sound. The company has been able to generate robust revenue streams over the years despite
onerous tax structure. Also the government ban on smoking in public and pictorial warnings on the cigarette pack in the recent
past has shown a minimal impact on the cigarettes revenue of the company. Further considering its wide distribution network,
strengthening overseas presence, diversification into other segments like Tea, Cosmetics, Chewing Products, Confectionery
and Retail and access to high margin flagship brand “Marlboro” to its high‐end cigarettes brand post the alliance with PMI, we
feel that GPIL deserves to trade at higher valuations going forward. Further the Indian market offers better scope in terms of
likely increase in cigarettes volume growth due to demographic factors and also due to the absence of consumer litigation in
India. This makes us believe that GPIL should trade at a premium to all its global cigarette peers going forward. Currently it is
cheaper on most parameters than its Indian peers.
Company Name TTM
OPM
(%)
NPM
(%)
EPS
(Rs.)
PE
(x)
Net Sales
(Rs. in Mn)
Mkt. Cap / Sales
(x)
P / BV
(x)
EV / EBITDA
(x)
ITC 37.5 26.4 10.6 34.5 319177.2 9.1 10.1 19.3
VST 26.3 17.6 86.1 19.5 7846.8 3.7 6.5 10.0
GPIL 15.2 9.2 212.9 15.1 24031.1 1.4 2.9 7.7
(Source: Capitaline)
Risks & Concerns
• The cigarette industry is regulated by high excise duties and multiple state taxes accompanied with a ban and restriction on
promotions & consumption of cigarettes, limiting growth of the industry. GPIL, along with other cigarette manufacturers
are vulnerable to these regulatory changes. In the last two years, the excise duty has been hiked by 18%. Any further
significant hike in excise duty & other taxes like VAT going forward could pose a negative effect on GPIL’s volumes &
margins. However, offlate, 64 mm filter tipped cigarette segment with relatively lower excise duty is gaining traction.
• In order to reduce its dependence on Cigarettes business, which is largely Government regulated, GPIL diversified into
other businesses like tea, confectionary & cosmetics (11.1% to the total revenues in 9MFY14). However, these businesses
(in totality) have not yet achieved a break‐even level, which is a cause of concern as it could impact its profitability.
• Average trading volume of the company in BSE and NSE is very low, which can create hurdles for the traders/investors to
enter or exit from the stock.
• GPIL’s exports account for 17% of its total net sales (in FY13). The company is also looking to strengthen its overseas
presence, which is likely to increase the exports share going forward. Further, the company imports only 10.6% of its input
14. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 14
requirements, which takes care of just 2.5% of its net sales. Hence any significant rupee appreciation could impact GPIL’s
realisations and margins going forward.
• Cigarette industry is highly competitive, with players vying to increase market share. GPIL faces stiff competition from other
established Indian cigarette players like ITC & VST. Further, it also faces competition from international cigarettes &
tobacco players like British American Tobacco, Imperial Tobacco, Swedish Match, Reynolds American, Altria Group etc. To
remain in competition with domestic & global players, the company will have to continue to launch new brands and
constantly expand its distribution network.
• The ban on sale of tobacco, gutka & pan masala in several states could impact GPIL’s production & sales of pan masala (in
Chewing Products category). However, this risk is mitigated to a large extent as the non‐availability of chewing tobacco
products could indirectly encourage more smoking of cigarettes, thus boosting its cigarettes business.
• Import duty on cigarettes is ~41% ad valorem, hence imports / smuggling is a threat to Marlboro sales in India by GPIL.
• Relations between K. K. Modi & Philip Morris are not on best terms on ownership / management of company. Best
decisions in the interest of minority shareholders could get delayed. But this is an opportunity for investors from medium
to long term perspective.
Conclusion
We expect GPIL’s net sales & PAT to grow at a CAGR of 18.6% & 30.5% respectively over FY13‐15. Despite regulatory hurdles
like pictorial warnings, ban on smoking in public places and burdensome tax structure, the company has maintained its growth
momentum in cigarettes business, which is encouraging. This is evident from the fact that GPIL’s domestic cigarettes sales
have grown at a CAGR of 11% over FY09‐13. In 9MFY14, the performance was much better, led by price hikes. While we do not
expect an inspiring growth in the cigarettes business on the back of higher tax incidence and regulatory hurdles like ban on
cigarettes advertising, government ban on smoking in public and pictorial warnings on the cigarette pack, the structural shifts
in the Indian economy of rising disposable income, improvements in standard of living, rising urbanization and aspiration
needs will lead to a decent rise in consumption of cigarettes over the next few years. Further, cigarettes demand being largely
inelastic, GPIL would not find it very difficult to pass on the excise hikes to the consumers and the impact on volumes could be
only for short term.
To reduce its dependence on cigarettes business, which is largely government regulated, GPIL has diversified into other
business like Tea, Confectionery, Chewing tobacco and Retail. GPL is scaling up these businesses rapidly by making huge
investments and expects Tea and Pan Vilas products to be the new growth drivers over the next few years. While we expect
the topline of other businesses to grow at a robust pace, they could take some more time to breakeven. While the timing of
the same is uncertain, once the segment starts adding to the bottomline, GPIL’s margins could improve significantly.
Exports growth has improved over the last two years and with the significant efforts of GPIL to expand the overseas reach, we
expect the exports business to grow at a robust rate going forward.
15. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 15
We expect the margins to improve on the back of cost rationalisation, margin improvement in cigarettes business & gradual
reduction in losses expected in Tea & Related segment.
At CMP, GPIL trades at 15.1x TTM EPS, which is at a huge discount of 56% to ITC and at 23% discount to VST. Further GPIL
trades at a discount to some of its global peers like British American Tobacco, Imperial Tobacco, Reynolds American, Altria
Group etc on TTM basis (Global peers: Trading in the range of 13‐17x TTM EPS). Considering its sound business model, its
ability to generate strong cash flows in cigarettes despite regulatory hurdles & high tax burden and diversification into new
business, which are not prone to government intervention, we feel that GPIL deserves to trade at better valuations. Further
the Indian market offers better scope in terms of likely increase in cigarettes volume growth due to demographic factors and
also due to the absence of consumer litigation in India. This makes us believe that GPIL should trade at a premium to its global
cigarette peers going forward.
The company has been able to generate strong cash flows (PAT + Depreciation) of around Rs. 2.4 bn p.a. (average of the last
three years FY10‐13) and is expected to improve it going forward. The company’s cash earnings per share in FY13 stood at Rs.
252.5 and is expected to increase to Rs. 311.5 in FY14 & Rs. 377.1 in FY15. GPIL also has encouraging return ratios (FY13: ROCE
– 20.6%, ROE – 16.1%), which are expected to improve steadily going forward. We expect ROCE & ROE to improve to 28.3% &
19.7% respectively by FY15. Moreover, GPIL’s Market Cap / Sales for FY14E & FY15E stand at 1.4x & 1.2x, which further make
the valuations attractive.
We feel that GPIL could trade at 14xFY15E EPS, which gives us price target of Rs. 3897. We feel investors could buy this scrip at
current level and add it on dips in the price band of Rs. 2853‐2992 (10.25‐10.75xFY15E EPS) for our price target over the next
one to two quarters. Promoter restructuring (i.e. if any of the two largest shareholders viz KK Modi or Philip Morris buy
majority stake in GPIL) could result in value unlocking and further re‐rating in the stock price.
Quarterly Financials (Consolidated)
Particulars Q3FY14 Q3FY13 VAR [%] Q2FY14 VAR [%] Q1FY14 Q4FY13
Gross Sales 10752.4 9083.8 18.4 10068.4 6.8 10036.7 9999.7
Excise Duty 4518.9 3770.9 19.8 4162.8 8.6 4036.0 4108.4
Net Sales 6233.5 5312.9 17.3 5905.6 5.6 6000.7 5891.3
Other Operating Income 169.8 101.6 67.1 129.3 31.3 149.0 166.4
Other Income 25.3 112.3 ‐77.5 48.2 ‐47.5 129.1 96.9
Total Income 6428.6 5526.8 16.3 6083.1 5.7 6278.8 6154.6
Total Expenditure 5073.2 4543.0 11.7 5167.8 ‐1.8 5722.4 5031.8
Raw Material Consumed 1473.4 1229.3 19.9 1312.4 12.3 1138.3 1285.3
Stock Adjustment ‐67.8 ‐74.0 ‐8.4 26.4 ‐356.8 250.9 ‐249.7
Purchase of Finished Goods 1033.7 939.8 10.0 1097.1 ‐5.8 1290.9 1663.4
Employee benefits expenses 554.3 491.7 12.7 548.7 1.0 591.8 548.6
17. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 17
Financial Estimates (Consolidated)
Profit & Loss A/c
YE March (Rs. Mn.) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 16024.5 18728.2 20524.6 24797.0 28847.5
Other Operating Income 259.1 376.8 451.3 623.1 747.7
Total Operating Income 16283.6 19105.0 20975.9 25420.1 29595.2
Material Cost 6335.1 7508.4 8370.1 10315.5 11914.0
Employee Benefits Expenses 1578.3 1804.1 2186.2 2306.1 2654.0
Conversion & Other Related charges 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Advertisement & Sales Promotion 2419.4 2741.0 2866.1 3000.4 3389.6
Other Expenditure 3193.6 3790.0 4284.1 5852.1 6346.4
Total Operating Expenses 13526.4 15843.5 17706.5 21474.2 24304.0
Operating Profit 2757.2 3261.5 3269.4 4299.7 5291.2
Other Income 231.7 296.7 293.8 242.6 266.9
EBITDA 2988.9 3558.2 3563.2 4184.0 5558.1
Interest 136.2 316.5 269.3 301.8 273.9
Depreciation 439.2 668.7 925.5 913.0 1027.2
PBT 2413.5 2573.0 2368.4 2969.2 4256.9
Tax (including FBT & DT) 754.8 762.5 674.0 935.3 1362.2
PAT (bef. min interest, profit / loss from Assc.) 1658.7 1810.5 1694.4 2033.9 2894.7
Minority Interest; Profit / Loss from Assc. ‐2.6 ‐4.5 ‐5.8 0.0 0.0
Reported PAT 1661.3 1815.0 1700.2 2033.9 2894.7
Extra‐ord Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐292.4 0.0
Adjusted PAT 1661.3 1815.0 1700.2 2326.3 2894.7
Balance Sheet
YE March (Rs. Mn.) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Equity & Liabilities
Shareholders’ Funds 8052.6 9360.6 10574.2 12380.5 14703.3
Share Capital 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0
Warrant Allotment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reserves & Surplus 7948.6 9256.6 10470.2 12276.5 14599.3
Share application money pending allotment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non‐Current Liabilities 1983.6 2672.5 2133.2 1762.0 1712.0
18. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 18
Minority Interest 23.2 20.4 18.8 0.0 0.0
Long Term borrowings 1681.7 2318.9 1661.3 1246.0 1121.4
Deferred Tax Liabilities (Net) 2.5 0.0 50.8 53.4 58.7
Other Long Term Liabilities 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5
Long Term Provisions 273.9 331.3 400.3 460.4 529.4
Current Liabilities 3811.9 4587.4 5458.9 7089.4 7695.5
Short Term Borrowings 246.8 343.7 592.6 177.8 195.5
Trade Payables 1022.0 1215.2 1598.5 1902.2 2206.6
Other Current Liabilities 1960.9 2396.2 2630.3 4340.0 4557.0
Short Term Provisions 582.2 632.4 637.6 669.5 736.4
Total Equity & Liabilities 13848.0 16620.5 18166.3 21231.9 24110.7
Assets
Non‐Current Assets 6334.8 8870.7 9338.4 10336.1 10987.9
Fixed Assets 5057.0 7058.2 7577.2 8438.7 9002.0
Gross Block 5649.9 8706.7 11266.9 12766.9 14266.9
Depreciation 2459.1 3078.2 3928.7 4841.7 5868.9
Net Block (Tangible Assets) 3190.7 5628.5 7338.2 7925.2 8398.0
Intangible Assets 29.4 23.2 59.1 88.6 97.5
Capital Work‐in‐Progress 1820.3 1390.0 163.3 408.4 490.0
Goodwill On Consolidation 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6
Non Current Investments 807.0 1266.9 1280.2 1344.2 1344.2
Long ‐term Loans and Advances 470.9 485.7 481.0 553.2 641.7
Other Non‐Current Assets 0.0 59.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Assets 7513.2 7749.8 8827.9 10895.8 13122.8
Current Investments 2412.6 1985.7 1579.7 2132.6 2825.7
Inventories 3539.6 3816.8 5433.5 6574.5 7626.5
Trade Receivables 453.9 749.5 793.0 959.5 1113.0
Cash & Cash Equivalents 539.8 241.5 244.7 357.5 546.5
Short Term Loans & Advances 390.8 821.7 622.6 684.9 794.5
Other Current Assets 176.5 134.7 154.4 186.8 216.7
Total Assets 13848.0 16620.5 18166.3 21231.9 24110.7
(Source: Company, HDFC Sec Estimates)
19. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 19
Key Ratios
YE March FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
FD EPS (Rs.) 159.8 174.5 163.5 223.7 278.4
PE (x) 20.2 18.5 19.7 14.4 11.6
Book Value (Rs.) 774.4 900.1 1016.8 1190.5 1413.9
P/BV (x) 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.3
OPM (%) 17.2 17.4 15.9 17.3 18.3
PBT (%) 15.1 13.7 11.5 12.0 14.8
NPM (%) 10.4 9.7 8.3 9.4 10.0
ROCE (%) 25.5 24.0 20.6 23.7 28.3
RONW (%) 20.6 19.4 16.1 18.8 19.7
Debt‐Equity (x) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
Current Ratio (x) 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7
Mkt. Cap / Sales (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.9 9.5 9.5 7.8 5.7
(Source: Company, HDFC Sec Estimates)
Cash Flow
YE March (Rs. in Million) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Profit Before Tax 2413.5 2573.0 2368.4 2969.2 4256.9
Net Opt Cash Flow 2564.7 2020.9 1908.8 4191.7 3449.6
Net Cash from Investing Activities ‐3125.4 ‐2045.1 ‐856.1 ‐2463.6 ‐2372.1
Net Cash from Financing Activities 737.5 38.6 ‐1059.7 ‐1615.4 ‐888.4
Cash & Cash Equivalents 539.8 241.5 244.7 357.5 546.5
Net Inc/(Dec) in Cash 176.9 14.4 ‐7.0 112.7 189.0
(Source: Company, HDFC Sec Estimates)
RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
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