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––––––– ––––––– –––– –––

        Winter 2008/2009
                                            The Global Snapshot
       A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

                                           The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’

                                           The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’ is a quarterly survey
                    +44 (0)870 770 1606
              UK
                                           of hiring (and firing) trends in some of the world’s most
                    +32 (0)2 719 04 85
       Belgium
                    +55 62 8131 7723
          Brazil                           important employment markets and in those likely to join this
                    +359 2 9523660
       Bulgaria                            group over the coming decade. This second report in the
                    +86(10) 6410 8866
          China                            series, covering the winter of 2008/09, is based upon material
                    +385 1 4576 200
        Croatia
                                           sourced from over 2700 businesses in commerce, industry
                    +20 2 3337 4663
          Egypt
                                           and the financial services sector in 107 countries on four
                    +33 (0) 143 49 52 21
         France
                                           continents.
                    +49 69 976 750
      Germany
                    +233 277 551 561
         Ghana
                    +36 1 336 2414
       Hungary
                    +91 (0)22 4010 8100
           India
                    +39 02 80 60 601
            Italy
                    +352 276 26 701
   Luxembourg
                    +356 27 377443
          Malta
                    +31 (0) 20 751 6100
   Netherlands
                    +234 1 741 4783
        Nigeria
                    +00 92 21 4312155
      Pakistan
                    +63 2 479 1859
    Philippines
                    +48 22 58 36 800
         Poland
                    +4 031 6201 025
      Romania
                    +7 (495) 935 8606
         Russia
                    +65 6622 5570
     Singapore
                    +27 11 455 2744
   South Africa
                    +34 91 310 60 15
          Spain
                    +00 41 (0)71912 4850
    Switzerland
                    +9 0212 244 08 41
         Turkey
                    +971 4 397 4541
            UAE                            We hope that you find it both interesting and useful.

                                           Tony Goodwin
                                           Chairman and CEO
                                           Antal International




   snapshot@antal.com                          www.antal.com                                                 1
                                                                                        INTRODUCTION
––––––– ––––––– –––– –––

        Winter 2008/2009
                                            The Global Snapshot
       A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

                                           About Antal International

                    +44 (0)870 770 1606
              UK                           Founded in 1993, Antal International is a management and
                    +32 (0)2 719 04 85
       Belgium
                                           professional recruitment specialist with a particular focus on
                    +55 62 8131 7723
          Brazil
                                           the sourcing and retention of candidates at middle and
                    +359 2 9523660
       Bulgaria
                                           senior level. One of the first recruitment organisations to
                    +86(10) 6410 8866
          China
                    +385 1 4576 200        devote substantial resources to emerging markets, the
        Croatia
                    +20 2 3337 4663
          Egypt                            company now has 52 offices in 28 countries and works with
                    +33 (0) 143 49 52 21
         France                            many of the world’s most successful and ambitious multi-
                    +49 69 976 750
      Germany                              nationals.
                    +233 277 551 561
         Ghana
                    +36 1 336 2414
       Hungary
                    +91 (0)22 4010 8100
           India
                    +39 02 80 60 601
            Italy
                    +352 276 26 701
   Luxembourg
                    +356 27 377443
          Malta
                    +31 (0) 20 751 6100
   Netherlands
                    +234 1 741 4783
        Nigeria
                    +00 92 21 4312155
      Pakistan
                    +63 2 479 1859
    Philippines
                    +48 22 58 36 800
         Poland
                    +4 031 6201 025
      Romania
                                           Methodology
                    +7 (495) 935 8606
         Russia
                    +65 6622 5570
     Singapore                             This edition of the Antal
                    +27 11 455 2744
   South Africa
                                           International ‘Global Snapshot’
                    +34 91 310 60 15
          Spain
                                           is based upon survey forms
                    +00 41 (0)71912 4850
    Switzerland
                                           and     telephone      interviews
                    +9 0212 244 08 41
         Turkey
                    +971 4 397 4541
            UAE                            completed by line and HR
                                           managers in 2762 companies,
                                           professional partnerships and
                                           financial institutions across 107 countries in the winter of
                                           2008/09. In-depth information is provided on 23 key
                                           employment markets.

                                           Each respondent was asked whether they were currently
                                           hiring or letting go professional/managerial staff and whether
                                           they intended to over the coming quarter. All respondents
                                           were guaranteed anonymity to encourage open and honest
                                           answers.




   snapshot@antal.com                           www.antal.com                                               2
                                                                                         ABOUT ANTAL
––––––– ––––––– –––– –––

          Winter 2008/2009
                                                                  The Global Snapshot
––––––– ––––––– –––– –––
         A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world
 Germany
 Germany
                                                                    Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
 Despite the fact that the global downturn has now hit the
 Reflecting the fact levelsGermany has activity arerelatively
 German economy, that of recruitment been left actually
                                                                    Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
 unscathed by they‘credit crunch’, employers with 81% of
 higher than the were in the autumn in the country
                                                                    Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
 are recruiting looking for managerial and professional level
 respondents heavily at                                  staff
 andopposed to 57% lastdemand for such staff will actually
 as are expecting that quarter. However there are some              Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
 increase uncertainty about the early part of 2009 with only
 signs of over the next quarter.
 64% of those questioned expecting to hire during this time.
 Hiring plans are particularly positive in the country in
                                                                   Western Europe
 the key discipline of engineering
 UK
 Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous
 quarter with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at
 managerial and professional level in contrast to 31% in the
 autumn. Optimism about the future also seems to have
                                                                    Germany
 been eroded with only 18% expecting to hire over the next
 three months, down from 48% last time. However, the
 effects of the general downturn are by no means uniform.
 The market for senior sales and marketing professionals,
 for example, appears to be particularly active, perhaps due
 to a desire get the most out of this key business function by
 UK
 recruiting and retaining high quality staff.
 The survey helped to give credence to the perception that                 UK
 the country is experiencing a downturn in economic activity
 Netherlands is feeding into the demand for managerial and
 and that this
 Despite predictionsHowever the polleconomy will two into
 professional staff. that the Dutch did produce fall key
 recession in 2009, it appears better placed topicture. First,
 findings which qualify this generally gloomy weather the
 storm than do appear its European Union about the future
 employers many of relatively optimistic partners. As a
 resultare consequently expecting to ramp up their hiring
 and current and future hiring intentions remain relatively
                                                                    Scotland
 positive, the year progresses. And secondly, medium-sized
 plans as particularly amongst smaller and the hiring and
 companies that are no means a uniform the downturn the
 firing picture is by taking advantage of one. Whilst to
 seize market and property sectors and certain parts larger
 construction share and high quality staff from their of the
 counterparts. Thereindustry are suffering a real crisisthe
 financial services are also signs that businesses in of
 country are organisations in other areas suchout’ telecoms
 confidence, in the process of ‘clearing as weaker
 members of their generally positive about hiring.
 and technology are management teams right across the
                                                                  Netherlands
 spectrum.

 Spain
 The well-publicised troubles of the Spanish economy are
 now being reflected in the jobs market with current hiring
 intentions dropping sharply from 63% in the autumn to 31%
 now and future hiring plans down from 50% to 22%.
                                                                        Spain
 Italy
 Hiring at managerial/professional level was looking
 considerably healthy in the poll in the autumn of 2008, yet
 Spain
 in the current climate this has dropped from 73% to 51%.
 Although wellItaly the downturn has businesses an increase
 However, for over half of Spanish not meant questioned                   Italy
 arefiring since autumn the deteriorating economy and a
 in currently hiring, resulting in relative stability across
 slowing ofjobs marketplace. seem set to bite into the
 the senior growth in GDP
 managerial/professional employment market next quarter
 Switzerland
 unless the government can take strong remedial action as a
 matter of urgency.
 The figures reflect a relatively static market at present, but
 suggest a more positive outlook for hiring and a drop in the
 shedding of professional and managerial staff over the
 Italy                                                            Switzerland
 coming months.
 Whilst Italy shares many economic and social
 characteristics with Spain, the employment market for
 Malta
 Current and future hiring intentions in Malta appearspositive
 managers and professionals in the country remain to be a
 although there are one. relatively employers questioned
 much more healthy a           47% of high percentage of
 believed that trends for intending to shed professional and
                            business were positive, 29% that
 businesses on the island                                               Malta
 managerial staff. and only 23% felt that they were negative.
 they were stable




  snapshot@antal.com                                                  www.antal.com
  snapshot@antal.com                                                                                                     Western Europe 3
Winter 2008/2009
                                                                    The Global Snapshot
        A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

               Western Europe
UK                                                                   Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous           Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
                 Sector Analysis
quarter with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at
                                                                     Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
managerial and professional level in contrast to 31% in the
autumn. Optimism about the future also seems to have                 Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
been eroded with only 18% expecting to hire over the next
three months, down from 48% last time. However, the
effects of the general downturn are by no means uniform.
The market for senior sales and marketing professionals,
                                                            UK   by Sector
for example, appears to be particularly active, perhaps due
to a desire get the most out of this key business function by
recruiting and retaining high quality staff.
                                                    Energy,
                                               Renewable,
Netherlands
                                               Oil and Gas
Despite predictions that the Dutch economy will fall into
recession in 2009, it appears better placed to weather the
storm than many of its European Union partners. As a
result current and future hiring intentions remain relatively
                                        Financial Services
positive, particularly amongst smaller and medium-sized
companies that are taking advantage of the downturn to
seize market share and high quality staff from their larger
counterparts. There are also signs that businesses in the
                                          IT and Telecoms
country are in the process of ‘clearing out’ weaker
members of their management teams right across the
spectrum.


                                             IT Contract




                                   Sales and Marketing




                                                        The Netherlands by Sector



                                Accounting and finance




                                      Sales & Marketing




                                     IT and Technology




                                                 Energy




                                                                                                                                                        3
                                                                       www.antal.com                                      Western Europe 4
 snapshot@antal.com
Winter 2008/2009
                                                                  The Global Snapshot
          A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

Hungary                                                             Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
                                                                    Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Hungary ran into major economic problems shortly after the
publication of our last survey in the autumn, leading to an
                                                                    Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
IMF-led rescue loan of over $25 billion. As a result of the
                                                                    Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
turmoil hiring levels are down – from 74% to 45% -
although 50% firmly intend to hire over the next quarter in
comparison to 59% in the autumn.

Poland
                                                                      Eastern Europe and Eurasia
Even Eastern Europe’s most successful economy has been
hit by the downturn with current hiring levels down from
93% in the autumn to 60% now and the percentage of
organisations expecting to recruit in the coming quarter
dropping from 63% to 54%. However the employment
market is still relatively robust and the general consensus is
that the country will escape the worst effects of the financial
                                                                  Hungary
storm thanks to healthy domestic consumption, a strong
banking sector and a well-balanced economy less reliant on
exports than many of its neighbours.

Bulgaria
Hiring levels in Bulgaria have dropped dramatically over the       Poland
last quarter from 89% to 28% and intentions to recruit in the
next three months from 90% to 29%. However this is, to
some extent countered by an equally significant reduction
in the shedding of professional and managerial staff from
49% in the autumn to only 4% now, whilst none of the
businesses questioned expressed an expectation that they          Bulgaria
would further reduce staffing levels in the coming quarter.
Romania
In sharp contrast to most other countries featured in this
report, Romania is showing a significant increase in hiring
levels – up from 37% in the autumn to 54% now – although
                                                                  Romania
the current employment drive may mean that these high
levels drop over the coming three months.

Croatia
Croatia is one of the few other countries to join Romania
experiencing an upsurge in recruitment with 58% of
                                                                   Croatia
businesses currently hiring in comparison to 41% in the
autumn. Many of the employers questioned continued to
complain about the shortage of good professional and
managerial staff, particularly in highly technical areas such
as IT and engineering, and of the spiralling levels of pay
expected by the best candidates.
                                                                   Turkey
Turkey
Despite the fact that demand for qualified and able
managers and professionals is still exceeding supply hiring
levels are down, albeit slightly from 73% in the autumn to
60% this winter. Overall, however, the employment market
in Turkey remains relatively buoyant.                              Russia
Russia
Russia is not in recession, but it has experienced some of
the effects of the economic downturn in other markets.
Certain disciplines and industry sectors have been affected
and others less so. Investment banking has been very
volatile and there has been a significant outflow of talent in
this area with bleak prospects for the intermediate future.
Construction, being heavily reliant on financing, has also
seen significant problems relating to the lack of credit, as
have retail chains that have traditionally financed
aggressive regional expansion through debt. Large western
IT vendors are treating the market very cautiously, however
to take up the slack many medium and small companies in
the IT sector are actually expanding.
                                                                                                                          Eastern Europe 5
                                                                             www.antal.com
 snapshot@antal.com
––––––– ––––––– –––– –––

        Winter 2008/2009
                                                  The Global Snapshot
       A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

    Eastern Europe and Eurasia                     Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
            Sector Analysis                        Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
                                                   Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
                                                   Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter

                                     Poland by Sector

                               Accounting and
                                     Finance


                                        Legal




                                      Banking


                           Sales and Marketing


                              IT and Telecoms




                                Manufacturing
                               and Technology




                                       FMCG


                                    Pharmacy




                                         OGE


                                          HR




                                      Russia by Sector

                                            IT


                     Sales and Marketing




                    Banking and Finance


                                       FMCG


   snapshot@antal.com                                www.antal.com                                      Eastern Europe 6
Winter 2008/2009
                                                                    The Global Snapshot
          A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

                                                                     Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
                                                                     Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
                                                                     Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
                                                                     Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter




                                                                    Latin America, Africa and the Middle East
Brazil
Brazil, the region's largest economy, has now pumped tens
of billions of dollars into shoring up its currency and once-
                                                                           Brazil
booming housing and automotive sectors, while
announcing an additional $3.6 billion in tax cuts, along with
$10 billion in credit for indebted Brazilian firms. Hiring levels
still remain very high but seem set to drop during the first
quarter of 2009.

                                                                           Egypt
Egypt
The level of hiring remains high in Egypt with nearly three
quarters of organisations questioned in the process of
taking on new staff. 83% of businesses definitely intend to
recruit over the coming quarter.

                                                                            UAE

UAE
Despite a slight dampening of the ‘boom’ conditions seen in
recent years across the Gulf, the area’s economy remains
robust and demand for professional and managerial staff is
high. The UAE in particular is still benefiting from the
                                                                          Nigeria
migration of professional workers from the US and Western
Europe seeking refuge from actual or threatened downturns
in their own countries.

Nigeria
As is the case in many of the world’s emerging economies,
                                                                     South Africa
high calibre professional and managerial staff are in short
supply in Nigeria and current hiring rates are consequently
relatively high. However businesses in the country share
the general uncertainty about the coming year and are
particularly concerned about the possible adverse effects of
falling oil prices.


South Africa
Although certain sectors of the economy have already
entered recession and the government has responded by
cutting interest rates, there is still high demand for
managers and professionals, particularly in and around the
main population centres such as Cape Town and
Johannesburg and in key sectors such as FMCG and
engineering. Current recruitment is consequently healthy
although South African businesses appear as hesitant as
others around the globe about the coming quarter.




   snapshot@antal.com                                                  www.antal.com                                        Africa & UAE            7
Winter 2008/2009
                                           The Global Snapshot
  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

       South Africa                        Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
     Sector Analysis                       Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
                                           Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
                                           Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter




                          South Africa by Sector



                           Accountancy




                           Construction




                                Energy




                            Engineering




                      Financial Services




                                 FMCG




                      IT and Technology




snapshot@antal.com                           www.antal.com                                        Africa & UAE                8
Winter 2008/2009
                                                                The Global Snapshot
        A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

                                                                 Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
                                                                 Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
                                                                 Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
                                                                 Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter


                                                                Asia
India
After a period of extremely strong demand for qualified
managers and professionals across practically every sector
we are now seeing a degree of caution entering the hiring               India
process. Intentions to recruit in the coming quarter are
down since the last report in the autumn of 2008.


Singapore
Worries about Singapore’s economy have fed into the
recruitment of professional and managerial staff with only
6% of businesses firmly intending to hire in the coming
quarter.                                                          Singapore
Philippines
So far the employment market in the Philippines appears to
be relatively robust with current levels of hiring at
professional and managerial level at a high 70% and
expected to rise to 76% over the coming quarter. Firing
levels are currently low although organisations expect them
to rise slightly during the early part of 2009.
                                                                  Philippines
China
As confidence falters around the globe, even the world’s
newest economic superpower seems to have been
affected. Hiring levels are down noticeably from the
extremely high levels seen in the autumn 2008 survey,
although they still remain relatively buoyant in comparison
to those in many other countries. The global downturn
obviously has a part to play in this, but so too has the fact
                                                                       China
that China is still not producing enough of the right type of
graduate from its burgeoning university system. The
country is still struggling to train enough managers and
professionals with real understanding of the commercial
world or of key practical skills such as engineering or
industrial management.




  snapshot@antal.com                                               www.antal.com                                                Asia                9
Winter 2008/2009
                                     The Global Snapshot
  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

          China                      Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
                                     Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
     Sector Analysis
                                     Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
                                     Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter




                               China by Sector




                        Automotive




                       Accountancy




                           Banking




                            Media




snapshot@antal.com                     www.antal.com                                                 ASIA
                                                                                                    Asia            10
––––––– ––––––– –––– –––

        Winter 2008/2009
                                               The Global Snapshot
       A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world

                                              Conclusions

                                              “….like a duck hit over the head.”
                    +44 (0)870 770 1606
              UK
                    +32 (0)2 719 04 85
       Belgium
                                              The British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once remarked that a
                    +55 62 8131 7723
          Brazil
                                              week is a long time in politics.
                    +359 2 9523660
       Bulgaria
                    +86(10) 6410 8866
          China
                                              And so is three months in the middle of a credit crisis.
                    +385 1 4576 200
        Croatia
                    +20 2 3337 4663
          Egypt                               Despite all the doom and gloom in the media, when we undertook
                    +33 (0) 143 49 52 21
         France                               our last survey of hiring and firing around the globe, most countries
                    +49 69 976 750
      Germany                                 appeared confident about the future. Now that confidence has
                    +233 277 551 561
         Ghana
                                              faltered, but has it evaporated completely?
                    +36 1 336 2414
       Hungary
                    +91 (0)22 4010 8100
           India                              Let’s look at the good news. There is no denying that there has
                    +39 02 80 60 601
            Italy                             certainly been a slowdown in economies across the world and a
                    +352 276 26 701
   Luxembourg                                 consequent knock-on effect on jobs and career development
                    +356 27 377443
          Malta                               prospects for professionals and managers at all levels. However
                    +31 (0) 20 751 6100
   Netherlands
                                              this does not mean that recruitment has come to a complete stop
                    +234 1 741 4783
        Nigeria
                                              by any means. Overall the research found that well over half of all
                    +00 92 21 4312155
      Pakistan
                                              businesses questioned were currently hiring and 43% intended to
                    +63 2 479 1859
    Philippines
                                              hire in the coming quarter. The hiring of locals and returnees in
                    +48 22 58 36 800
         Poland
                                              preference to international staff in countries such as China, India
                    +4 031 6201 025
      Romania
                                              and Russia has really taken off, for example, as organisations look
                    +7 (495) 935 8606
         Russia
                                              for best value from their hires. Rather than being a classic
                    +65 6622 5570
     Singapore
                                              downturn, this one seems to be developing a very specific nature,
                    +27 11 455 2744
   South Africa
                    +34 91 310 60 15          which hits certain countries and sectors extremely hard whilst
          Spain
                    +00 41 (0)71912 4850
    Switzerland                               leaving others relatively or even completely unscathed. The major
                    +9 0212 244 08 41
         Turkey                               problem we face is one of uncertainty. To borrow another quote
                    +971 4 397 4541
            UAE                               from the past – this time from Abraham Lincoln commenting on one
                                              of his generals – it seems that a large part of the global business
                                              community is currently “confused and stunned, like a duck hit over
                                              the head” with obvious consequences for the professional and
                                              managerial jobs market.
  Contact Us
                                              This year, perhaps even the next couple of years in global jobs
  If you would like any further information
                                              markets will certainly be quieter than the preceding ones – the
  about material included in this report or
                                              boom is on hold, at least for now. What organisations and
  would like to reserve a copy of the next
                                              individuals need to do now is to accept that a downturn is here and
  ‘Global Snapshot’, contact Sarah Jones
                                              overcome it. That means acknowledging that pay will not keep
  at snapshot@antal.com or your local
                                              rising all the time, that desirable jobs will be more difficult to get and
  Antal office – see www.antal.com for
                                              that the workplace will be harder, more competitive and more
  more details.
                                              unforgiving than it has been for some time. Once this happens the
                                              panic will stop and organisations and individuals alike will get on
                                              with getting back to basics - focusing on their clients and
                                              customers, delivering good products and good service and starting
                                              us out on the path to economic recovery.




   snapshot@antal.com                              www.antal.com                                   Contact Us              11

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Global Snapshot Winter 2009 Final

  • 1. ––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’ The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’ is a quarterly survey +44 (0)870 770 1606 UK of hiring (and firing) trends in some of the world’s most +32 (0)2 719 04 85 Belgium +55 62 8131 7723 Brazil important employment markets and in those likely to join this +359 2 9523660 Bulgaria group over the coming decade. This second report in the +86(10) 6410 8866 China series, covering the winter of 2008/09, is based upon material +385 1 4576 200 Croatia sourced from over 2700 businesses in commerce, industry +20 2 3337 4663 Egypt and the financial services sector in 107 countries on four +33 (0) 143 49 52 21 France continents. +49 69 976 750 Germany +233 277 551 561 Ghana +36 1 336 2414 Hungary +91 (0)22 4010 8100 India +39 02 80 60 601 Italy +352 276 26 701 Luxembourg +356 27 377443 Malta +31 (0) 20 751 6100 Netherlands +234 1 741 4783 Nigeria +00 92 21 4312155 Pakistan +63 2 479 1859 Philippines +48 22 58 36 800 Poland +4 031 6201 025 Romania +7 (495) 935 8606 Russia +65 6622 5570 Singapore +27 11 455 2744 South Africa +34 91 310 60 15 Spain +00 41 (0)71912 4850 Switzerland +9 0212 244 08 41 Turkey +971 4 397 4541 UAE We hope that you find it both interesting and useful. Tony Goodwin Chairman and CEO Antal International snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com 1 INTRODUCTION
  • 2. ––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world About Antal International +44 (0)870 770 1606 UK Founded in 1993, Antal International is a management and +32 (0)2 719 04 85 Belgium professional recruitment specialist with a particular focus on +55 62 8131 7723 Brazil the sourcing and retention of candidates at middle and +359 2 9523660 Bulgaria senior level. One of the first recruitment organisations to +86(10) 6410 8866 China +385 1 4576 200 devote substantial resources to emerging markets, the Croatia +20 2 3337 4663 Egypt company now has 52 offices in 28 countries and works with +33 (0) 143 49 52 21 France many of the world’s most successful and ambitious multi- +49 69 976 750 Germany nationals. +233 277 551 561 Ghana +36 1 336 2414 Hungary +91 (0)22 4010 8100 India +39 02 80 60 601 Italy +352 276 26 701 Luxembourg +356 27 377443 Malta +31 (0) 20 751 6100 Netherlands +234 1 741 4783 Nigeria +00 92 21 4312155 Pakistan +63 2 479 1859 Philippines +48 22 58 36 800 Poland +4 031 6201 025 Romania Methodology +7 (495) 935 8606 Russia +65 6622 5570 Singapore This edition of the Antal +27 11 455 2744 South Africa International ‘Global Snapshot’ +34 91 310 60 15 Spain is based upon survey forms +00 41 (0)71912 4850 Switzerland and telephone interviews +9 0212 244 08 41 Turkey +971 4 397 4541 UAE completed by line and HR managers in 2762 companies, professional partnerships and financial institutions across 107 countries in the winter of 2008/09. In-depth information is provided on 23 key employment markets. Each respondent was asked whether they were currently hiring or letting go professional/managerial staff and whether they intended to over the coming quarter. All respondents were guaranteed anonymity to encourage open and honest answers. snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com 2 ABOUT ANTAL
  • 3. ––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot ––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world Germany Germany Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Despite the fact that the global downturn has now hit the Reflecting the fact levelsGermany has activity arerelatively German economy, that of recruitment been left actually Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter unscathed by they‘credit crunch’, employers with 81% of higher than the were in the autumn in the country Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level are recruiting looking for managerial and professional level respondents heavily at staff andopposed to 57% lastdemand for such staff will actually as are expecting that quarter. However there are some Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter increase uncertainty about the early part of 2009 with only signs of over the next quarter. 64% of those questioned expecting to hire during this time. Hiring plans are particularly positive in the country in Western Europe the key discipline of engineering UK Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous quarter with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at managerial and professional level in contrast to 31% in the autumn. Optimism about the future also seems to have Germany been eroded with only 18% expecting to hire over the next three months, down from 48% last time. However, the effects of the general downturn are by no means uniform. The market for senior sales and marketing professionals, for example, appears to be particularly active, perhaps due to a desire get the most out of this key business function by UK recruiting and retaining high quality staff. The survey helped to give credence to the perception that UK the country is experiencing a downturn in economic activity Netherlands is feeding into the demand for managerial and and that this Despite predictionsHowever the polleconomy will two into professional staff. that the Dutch did produce fall key recession in 2009, it appears better placed topicture. First, findings which qualify this generally gloomy weather the storm than do appear its European Union about the future employers many of relatively optimistic partners. As a resultare consequently expecting to ramp up their hiring and current and future hiring intentions remain relatively Scotland positive, the year progresses. And secondly, medium-sized plans as particularly amongst smaller and the hiring and companies that are no means a uniform the downturn the firing picture is by taking advantage of one. Whilst to seize market and property sectors and certain parts larger construction share and high quality staff from their of the counterparts. Thereindustry are suffering a real crisisthe financial services are also signs that businesses in of country are organisations in other areas suchout’ telecoms confidence, in the process of ‘clearing as weaker members of their generally positive about hiring. and technology are management teams right across the Netherlands spectrum. Spain The well-publicised troubles of the Spanish economy are now being reflected in the jobs market with current hiring intentions dropping sharply from 63% in the autumn to 31% now and future hiring plans down from 50% to 22%. Spain Italy Hiring at managerial/professional level was looking considerably healthy in the poll in the autumn of 2008, yet Spain in the current climate this has dropped from 73% to 51%. Although wellItaly the downturn has businesses an increase However, for over half of Spanish not meant questioned Italy arefiring since autumn the deteriorating economy and a in currently hiring, resulting in relative stability across slowing ofjobs marketplace. seem set to bite into the the senior growth in GDP managerial/professional employment market next quarter Switzerland unless the government can take strong remedial action as a matter of urgency. The figures reflect a relatively static market at present, but suggest a more positive outlook for hiring and a drop in the shedding of professional and managerial staff over the Italy Switzerland coming months. Whilst Italy shares many economic and social characteristics with Spain, the employment market for Malta Current and future hiring intentions in Malta appearspositive managers and professionals in the country remain to be a although there are one. relatively employers questioned much more healthy a 47% of high percentage of believed that trends for intending to shed professional and business were positive, 29% that businesses on the island Malta managerial staff. and only 23% felt that they were negative. they were stable snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com snapshot@antal.com Western Europe 3
  • 4. Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world Western Europe UK Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Sector Analysis quarter with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level managerial and professional level in contrast to 31% in the autumn. Optimism about the future also seems to have Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter been eroded with only 18% expecting to hire over the next three months, down from 48% last time. However, the effects of the general downturn are by no means uniform. The market for senior sales and marketing professionals, UK by Sector for example, appears to be particularly active, perhaps due to a desire get the most out of this key business function by recruiting and retaining high quality staff. Energy, Renewable, Netherlands Oil and Gas Despite predictions that the Dutch economy will fall into recession in 2009, it appears better placed to weather the storm than many of its European Union partners. As a result current and future hiring intentions remain relatively Financial Services positive, particularly amongst smaller and medium-sized companies that are taking advantage of the downturn to seize market share and high quality staff from their larger counterparts. There are also signs that businesses in the IT and Telecoms country are in the process of ‘clearing out’ weaker members of their management teams right across the spectrum. IT Contract Sales and Marketing The Netherlands by Sector Accounting and finance Sales & Marketing IT and Technology Energy 3 www.antal.com Western Europe 4 snapshot@antal.com
  • 5. Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world Hungary Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Hungary ran into major economic problems shortly after the publication of our last survey in the autumn, leading to an Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level IMF-led rescue loan of over $25 billion. As a result of the Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter turmoil hiring levels are down – from 74% to 45% - although 50% firmly intend to hire over the next quarter in comparison to 59% in the autumn. Poland Eastern Europe and Eurasia Even Eastern Europe’s most successful economy has been hit by the downturn with current hiring levels down from 93% in the autumn to 60% now and the percentage of organisations expecting to recruit in the coming quarter dropping from 63% to 54%. However the employment market is still relatively robust and the general consensus is that the country will escape the worst effects of the financial Hungary storm thanks to healthy domestic consumption, a strong banking sector and a well-balanced economy less reliant on exports than many of its neighbours. Bulgaria Hiring levels in Bulgaria have dropped dramatically over the Poland last quarter from 89% to 28% and intentions to recruit in the next three months from 90% to 29%. However this is, to some extent countered by an equally significant reduction in the shedding of professional and managerial staff from 49% in the autumn to only 4% now, whilst none of the businesses questioned expressed an expectation that they Bulgaria would further reduce staffing levels in the coming quarter. Romania In sharp contrast to most other countries featured in this report, Romania is showing a significant increase in hiring levels – up from 37% in the autumn to 54% now – although Romania the current employment drive may mean that these high levels drop over the coming three months. Croatia Croatia is one of the few other countries to join Romania experiencing an upsurge in recruitment with 58% of Croatia businesses currently hiring in comparison to 41% in the autumn. Many of the employers questioned continued to complain about the shortage of good professional and managerial staff, particularly in highly technical areas such as IT and engineering, and of the spiralling levels of pay expected by the best candidates. Turkey Turkey Despite the fact that demand for qualified and able managers and professionals is still exceeding supply hiring levels are down, albeit slightly from 73% in the autumn to 60% this winter. Overall, however, the employment market in Turkey remains relatively buoyant. Russia Russia Russia is not in recession, but it has experienced some of the effects of the economic downturn in other markets. Certain disciplines and industry sectors have been affected and others less so. Investment banking has been very volatile and there has been a significant outflow of talent in this area with bleak prospects for the intermediate future. Construction, being heavily reliant on financing, has also seen significant problems relating to the lack of credit, as have retail chains that have traditionally financed aggressive regional expansion through debt. Large western IT vendors are treating the market very cautiously, however to take up the slack many medium and small companies in the IT sector are actually expanding. Eastern Europe 5 www.antal.com snapshot@antal.com
  • 6. ––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world Eastern Europe and Eurasia Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Poland by Sector Accounting and Finance Legal Banking Sales and Marketing IT and Telecoms Manufacturing and Technology FMCG Pharmacy OGE HR Russia by Sector IT Sales and Marketing Banking and Finance FMCG snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Eastern Europe 6
  • 7. Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Latin America, Africa and the Middle East Brazil Brazil, the region's largest economy, has now pumped tens of billions of dollars into shoring up its currency and once- Brazil booming housing and automotive sectors, while announcing an additional $3.6 billion in tax cuts, along with $10 billion in credit for indebted Brazilian firms. Hiring levels still remain very high but seem set to drop during the first quarter of 2009. Egypt Egypt The level of hiring remains high in Egypt with nearly three quarters of organisations questioned in the process of taking on new staff. 83% of businesses definitely intend to recruit over the coming quarter. UAE UAE Despite a slight dampening of the ‘boom’ conditions seen in recent years across the Gulf, the area’s economy remains robust and demand for professional and managerial staff is high. The UAE in particular is still benefiting from the Nigeria migration of professional workers from the US and Western Europe seeking refuge from actual or threatened downturns in their own countries. Nigeria As is the case in many of the world’s emerging economies, South Africa high calibre professional and managerial staff are in short supply in Nigeria and current hiring rates are consequently relatively high. However businesses in the country share the general uncertainty about the coming year and are particularly concerned about the possible adverse effects of falling oil prices. South Africa Although certain sectors of the economy have already entered recession and the government has responded by cutting interest rates, there is still high demand for managers and professionals, particularly in and around the main population centres such as Cape Town and Johannesburg and in key sectors such as FMCG and engineering. Current recruitment is consequently healthy although South African businesses appear as hesitant as others around the globe about the coming quarter. snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Africa & UAE 7
  • 8. Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world South Africa Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter South Africa by Sector Accountancy Construction Energy Engineering Financial Services FMCG IT and Technology snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Africa & UAE 8
  • 9. Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Asia India After a period of extremely strong demand for qualified managers and professionals across practically every sector we are now seeing a degree of caution entering the hiring India process. Intentions to recruit in the coming quarter are down since the last report in the autumn of 2008. Singapore Worries about Singapore’s economy have fed into the recruitment of professional and managerial staff with only 6% of businesses firmly intending to hire in the coming quarter. Singapore Philippines So far the employment market in the Philippines appears to be relatively robust with current levels of hiring at professional and managerial level at a high 70% and expected to rise to 76% over the coming quarter. Firing levels are currently low although organisations expect them to rise slightly during the early part of 2009. Philippines China As confidence falters around the globe, even the world’s newest economic superpower seems to have been affected. Hiring levels are down noticeably from the extremely high levels seen in the autumn 2008 survey, although they still remain relatively buoyant in comparison to those in many other countries. The global downturn obviously has a part to play in this, but so too has the fact China that China is still not producing enough of the right type of graduate from its burgeoning university system. The country is still struggling to train enough managers and professionals with real understanding of the commercial world or of key practical skills such as engineering or industrial management. snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Asia 9
  • 10. Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world China Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Sector Analysis Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter China by Sector Automotive Accountancy Banking Media snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com ASIA Asia 10
  • 11. ––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– Winter 2008/2009 The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world Conclusions “….like a duck hit over the head.” +44 (0)870 770 1606 UK +32 (0)2 719 04 85 Belgium The British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once remarked that a +55 62 8131 7723 Brazil week is a long time in politics. +359 2 9523660 Bulgaria +86(10) 6410 8866 China And so is three months in the middle of a credit crisis. +385 1 4576 200 Croatia +20 2 3337 4663 Egypt Despite all the doom and gloom in the media, when we undertook +33 (0) 143 49 52 21 France our last survey of hiring and firing around the globe, most countries +49 69 976 750 Germany appeared confident about the future. Now that confidence has +233 277 551 561 Ghana faltered, but has it evaporated completely? +36 1 336 2414 Hungary +91 (0)22 4010 8100 India Let’s look at the good news. There is no denying that there has +39 02 80 60 601 Italy certainly been a slowdown in economies across the world and a +352 276 26 701 Luxembourg consequent knock-on effect on jobs and career development +356 27 377443 Malta prospects for professionals and managers at all levels. However +31 (0) 20 751 6100 Netherlands this does not mean that recruitment has come to a complete stop +234 1 741 4783 Nigeria by any means. Overall the research found that well over half of all +00 92 21 4312155 Pakistan businesses questioned were currently hiring and 43% intended to +63 2 479 1859 Philippines hire in the coming quarter. The hiring of locals and returnees in +48 22 58 36 800 Poland preference to international staff in countries such as China, India +4 031 6201 025 Romania and Russia has really taken off, for example, as organisations look +7 (495) 935 8606 Russia for best value from their hires. Rather than being a classic +65 6622 5570 Singapore downturn, this one seems to be developing a very specific nature, +27 11 455 2744 South Africa +34 91 310 60 15 which hits certain countries and sectors extremely hard whilst Spain +00 41 (0)71912 4850 Switzerland leaving others relatively or even completely unscathed. The major +9 0212 244 08 41 Turkey problem we face is one of uncertainty. To borrow another quote +971 4 397 4541 UAE from the past – this time from Abraham Lincoln commenting on one of his generals – it seems that a large part of the global business community is currently “confused and stunned, like a duck hit over the head” with obvious consequences for the professional and managerial jobs market. Contact Us This year, perhaps even the next couple of years in global jobs If you would like any further information markets will certainly be quieter than the preceding ones – the about material included in this report or boom is on hold, at least for now. What organisations and would like to reserve a copy of the next individuals need to do now is to accept that a downturn is here and ‘Global Snapshot’, contact Sarah Jones overcome it. That means acknowledging that pay will not keep at snapshot@antal.com or your local rising all the time, that desirable jobs will be more difficult to get and Antal office – see www.antal.com for that the workplace will be harder, more competitive and more more details. unforgiving than it has been for some time. Once this happens the panic will stop and organisations and individuals alike will get on with getting back to basics - focusing on their clients and customers, delivering good products and good service and starting us out on the path to economic recovery. snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Contact Us 11