The document discusses Canada's slowing economic growth and identifies several contributing factors, including global economic difficulties, geopolitical events, and automation. It analyzes GDP forecasts, growth rates, and deficits across various economies. Specific attention is given to analyzing GDP and employment data in Canada, and factors impacting key industries like housing, exports, and retail. A variety of policy approaches are discussed to potentially address challenges and support stronger growth, such as reforms to education, immigration, infrastructure investment, and trade agreements.

1. CANADA SLOW
GROWTH –
WHAT NEEDS
TO HAPPEN?
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Date: October 15, 2019

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. INTRODUCTION
• This presentation will discuss issues facing the Canadian economy as it heads for
slower economic growth.
• World economies are facing difficulties due to many factors like Brexit or China/USA
trade wars or Excessive Government Regulations or lack of investment infrastructure
• Geopolitical events in Middle East, South Asia Sea, Government changes in UK,
Australia, etc.

4. AGENDA
• GDP Forecast
• Blog - IMF
• Slow Growth / IMF
• Canada (GDP and Deficits)
• EU – Germany
• United States
• Automation/Technology
• Education / Skills
• Trade / Canada
• Employment / Canada
• Middle Class
• Keynesian Economics – Obama
• Keynesian Economics – Trudeau
• Deficits/Debt – Canada Government
• Real Estate

5. GDP GLOBAL FORECAST

6. Source -
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news
/research-and-markets/big-six-economists-
forecast-moderate-growth-for-
2019/?platform=hootsuite
PRIVATE ECONOMIST

7. IMF SLOW GROWTH
• https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/exporting-and-importing/imf-downgrades-outlook-for-world-economy-citing-
trade-wars-240314/
• IMF does not get there are unfair trade practices including lack of environmental law and labor laws, restriction on capital
leaving a country, tax avoidance, productivity and other issues.
• Emissions and emerging markets -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019
-06-11/global-emissions-rose-the-most-in-7-
years-bp-review-shows
• Environment –” On the positive side, the average
continues to increase and this improvement has
generally been driven by rising ecosystem vitality
scores. Improvements in environmental health
scores have proven more difficult, particularly in
the areas of water and air quality. Rapid
urbanisation and continued industrialisation in a
number of the larger emerging markets
countries continues to put pressure on these two
resources. ” Source – RBC.com

8. IMF AND CANADA
Source - https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/imf-says-canadian-economy-to-grow-at-1-5-per-
cent-lower-than-previous-forecast-1.4372147
• Why did Liberal forced a carbon tax
on a slowing economy?
• Goods producing sector continues to
lose FDI -
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/stephe
n-harper-tells-private-audience-
investors-have-lost-faith-in-canada-
1.1241538
Harper/CPC

9. SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH
• Liberal Economic Council – Key Quotes “The global expert who heads the
Trudeau government’s economic advisory council has offered a glimpse
into the group’s brainstorming sessions on how best to lift Canada’s
drooping growth prospects. Dominic Barton shared details of the team’s
focal points during his appearance this week at a public policy summit in
Ottawa. They include easing immigration rules to attract more talent,
retraining swaths of the workforce to adjust to the rapid rise in
automation and creating what he calls the world’s first infrastructure
agency designed to rake in private and foreign capital. Source:
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/regulation/trudeaus-economic-
guru-offers-sneak-peak-on-reviving-growth-177211/

10. SLOW GROWTH
• Growth is measure by change in GDP. Canada has been experiencing slow growth
for over 12+ years.
• Source - https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/global-economics/scotiabank-
forecast-tables.html
• You will see based on BNS Analysis
Factors impacting Growth
• Commodity Prices
• Consumer Demand
• Exports
• Demographics
• Government Policies

11. CANADA GDP BY SEGMENT
Source – Stats Canada
GDP Analysis
• Approximately 30% of GDP
is good producing
• Approximately 70% of GDP
is the service sector
How do you grow GDP?
• Opening new markets (Exports)
• Innovation/R&D to support next
generation of businesses
• Government policies related to
consumer spending

12. SLOW WORLD
GROWTH
Source -
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/
exporting-and-importing/imf-sees-a-
weaker-global-economy-but-upgrades-u-
s-forecast-236295/

13. GERMANY AND UNITED KINGDOM
Source - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/08/germany-and-uk-will-be-in-recession-if-third-quarter-gdp-growth-is-
negative.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfutur
e%29

14. USA SLOW ECONOMY
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/business-economists-foresee-slowdown-in-u-s-growth-
239939/

15. WHAT ARE
THE NEXT
TYPES OF
BUSINESSES
3-D Printing Energy Storage Expert Farming
Microgrids Digital media Virtual Reality
Pre-fab housing Drones Driver-less cars
eCommerce
Source -
http://www.slideshare.n
et/paulyoungcga/2016
-employment-outlook-
canada or
https://www.slideshare.
net/paulyoungcga/top-
predictions-2019 or

16. HOW DOES THE GOVERNMENT CREATE
POLICIES TO SUPPORT NEXT
GENERATION OF BUSINESS
• Cultivate innovation
• Focusing on private and public partnership through creation innovation centers at
all Colleges and Universities across Canada
• Continue to promote tax programs, like R&D Tax Credits or Stock Options or cuts
to EI for small to medium size business
• Continue to look at programs like SDTC or Next Generation Biofuels or Industry
specific funds
• Partnering with all levels of government to cut down red tape and regulation to
help businesses spend more time growing their business.
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canadian-manufacturing-analysis-
including-trends-and-assessment-of-government-policies

17. REVAMPING EDUCATION
Education systems needs to be align with
needs of business
01
Provincial government need to revamp
apprenticeship programs as part opening
up the skills trades to more individuals
02
Tax Policies
•Hiring credits and/or other training credits should be
promoted as part of assisting companies with
development of their employees
•Source:
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/governmen
t-policies-education-skills-development-canada-
october-2-2016
03

18. • Analysis:
• Canada exports account for
about 25% of GDP. Canada
is export driven country.
• For each $1B in exports
there is 5,500
indirect/direct jobs created
• Goods producing jobs pay
on average $350/week as
compare to service sector
jobs - Sources:
http://www.slideshare.net/
paulyoungcga/wages-and-
employment-canada-july-
2016
Source – Stats Canada

19. EMPLOYMENT
Source – Stats Canada

20. LIBERALS / MIDDLE CLASS
Source - https://www.liberal.ca/trudeau-unveils-liberal-platform-for-a-strong-middle-class/
“Stephen Harper wants
us to think that if it
weren’t for him, our
economy would fall
apart. But Canada’s
economy doesn’t depend
on him. It depends on
Canadians. It depends on
the people I meet all
across this country,
every single day,” said
Mr. Trudeau. “People
want economic growth,
good jobs, and more
money in their pockets.
They want to see their
voices and values
represented in Ottawa.
Canadians want a better
government, not just a
different one. It’s time for
real change, and that is
exactly what the Liberal
Liberal 2015
GDP by PM @justintrudeau who feels regressive
taxation like carbon will help the
middle class as well as eliminated the
transit tax credit.
@Andrewscheer who feels removing
regressive taxation and focusing on
lowering taxes for the middle class (tax
rates and tax credits)
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcg
a/2019-election-middle-class-liberals-
vs-cpc-july-2019
Who is better for the middle class?

21. KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
Obama “Ronald Reagan explicitly scrapped Keynesian economics for the more modern supply side economics, which
holds that economic growth results from incentives meant to boost production. That results from reduced tax rates,
which enable producers to keep a higher proportion of what they produce. It results from reduced regulatory costs,
which also increases the net reward for increased production. And it results from monetary policies maintaining a
strong, stable dollar, without inflation, which assures investors that the value of their investments will not be depreciated
by inflation or a falling dollar, or threatened by repeated recessions resulting from policy induced boom/bust cycles, as
in the 1970s.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/07/12/obamanomics-the-final-nail-in-the-discredited-
keynesian-coffin/#b2d4debba7d7 - Obama – “” Apparently determined to prove once more that Keynesian economics
doesn’t work, Obama’s first major act in office was to pursue the unreconstructed Keynesianism of the nearly $1 trillion
so-called “stimulus,” which we now know didn’t stimulate anything except government spending, deficits and
debt. Obama promised us at the time that if his “stimulus” bill passed, the unemployment rate would never exceed 8%,
and would decline to 5.8% by May of this year. But in reality it was 8.2% and rising in May.
There right things to spend money that support economic growth which is infrastructure. @JustinTrudeau so call big dig
never happen! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-infrastructure-and-capital-spending-canada-
june-2019
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-fiscal-management-canada-june-2019 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-public-sector-efficiency-canada-july-2019
Trudeau promise small deficits, right? Trudeau failed and failed badly on GDP and the fiscal management cycle. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-budget-deficitsurpluses-and-debt-to-gdp-canada-
september-2019

22. TRUDEAU FAILED KEYNESIAN
ECONOMICS
@JustinTrudeau promise modest deficits which led to GDP growth of average of 2%.
Trudeau says trust him, right? If Trudeau cannot help Cdns with $14-18B deficits, then
what will $22-27B do for Cdns?
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-did-justin-trudeau-fail-at-
keynesian-economics

23. TOP CAREERS / CANADA
Source - http://globalnews.ca/news/2944692/the-top-eight-careers-of-the-
future-in-canada/ or https://www.trade-schools.net/ca/articles/careers-in-
demand.asp
Risks
• Healthcare funding –
Provinces are
strapped for cash
• Education funding –
declining enrolment
• Residential/non-
residential
investment has been
sluggish
1. Registered Nurse
2. Truck Driver
3. College or Vocational Instructor
4. Business Management Consultant
5. Welder
6. Licensed Practical Nurse
7. Occupational or Physiotherapy Assistant
8. Software Engineer or Designer
9. Aerospace Engineer
10. Industrial Electrician
11. Aircraft Pilot
12. Pharmacist
13. Psychologist
14. Steamfitter or Pipefitter
15. Construction Estimator
16. Veterinary Technician or Assistant
17. Dispensing Optician

24. WHAT CAN BE DONE TO SUPPORT
EXPORTS
Investment in infrastructure that supports moving goods to market (Bridges, ports, roads)
More Trade Agreements and FIPA Deals – FYI – Trade Deals to be fair deals
Cutting red and regulation down as part getting projects off the ground (mines, pipelines, food processing plants, etc.
Provincial Policies
Approval of Natural Resource projects
Controlling growth in Hydro Rates
Reducing red tape and regulations
Tax policies
Ensure Canada has competitive tax policies with the rest of the world
Encouraging more investment in capital assets by keeping the CCA rules for the
write-down of machinery and equipment

25. RETAIL SALES
Areas of focus:
Retail sales are approximately $540B and growing at about rate of
1.5% to 2.2%
Retail market is going through changes with more and more
adoption of eCommerce
Retail Market is influence by taxation (Duties, Tariffs, carbon
taxation, etc.)
Source: Stats Canada /
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-retail-sales-
for-july-2016

26. WHAT CAN BE
DONE TO
SUPPORT RETAIL
SALES
Reduction of Tariffs
and Duties (USA vs
Canadian Pricing)
No increases to sales
taxes (Provincial or
GST)
Towing the line when
it comes to payroll
tax increases
Capping growth in
hydro rates
Reducing red tape
and regulations
Promote local buying

27. HOUSING MARKET
Issues: Housing prices on
average have been
growing at rate of 8%
for the past few
years. The 8% growth
rate is higher than
wage growth and
GDP growth
Housing prices are
not sustainable as
income growth has
stagnated
Foreign ownership of
property has increase
the speculation and
push up prices
Ridiculous bids and
asks for housing
No Integrated
strategy when it
comes to the housing
market (Provinces,
Municipalities,
Federal Government
and the Private
Sector
Source:
http://www.slideshare
.net/paulyoungcga/re
al-estate-trends-and-
analysis-for-canada-
august-2016

28. HOUSING MARKET/COST OF LIVING
World Housing Market
• Affordability / Housing - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/7-cities-at-highest-risk-
of-real-estate-bubble-ubs-2019-9-1028563829 or https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2019/10/02/canada-
among-the-most-overpriced-city-housing-in-world/

29. GOVERNMENT SPENDING/DEFICITS
Issues:
Slow economic growth leads to pressure on government revenues
Today’s deficit and Debt are tomorrow hike in taxation or spending cut
Government needs to be transformed including more value for money as well as balance budget laws.

30. HOW DO GOVERNMENT DEFICITS AND
DEBT INFLUENCE ECONOMIC GROWTH
High government deficit may force
government into making cuts to
program spending.
Companies do not like to invest in
countries due to possibilities of taxes
will be increased
Raising taxes does not grow an
economy.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h
WarBMfshaA
Sources:
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungc
ga/what-does-government-deficits-
and-debt-mean-to-youppt

31. SUMMARY
WTO needs to be reform https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-global-trade-barriers-and-
protection-wto-canada-september-2019 -
Era of protectionism needs to end. All governments around the world need to bring tax reforms, changes to their labor
and environmental laws as part of opening their borders to more balance approach to both FDI and Trade.
Adding more regulations will not support economic growth – i.e. C69 - https://www.capp.ca/publications-and-
statistics/publications/326232?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social
Canada needs to become more competitive - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/business-competitiveness-
canada
Government cannot do tax increases and then expect business can absorb those new taxes. In the end the business will
pass those costs on to the consumers - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-do-corporate-profits-flow or
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-carbon-tax-or-a-price-for-carbon
Era of using Keynesian economics to support economic growth are done -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/07/12/obamanomics-the-final-nail-in-the-discredited-keynesian-
coffin/#53f9c93cba7d