Summary:
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $73.7 billion for the April to November period of the current fiscal year.
The Finance Department says the result compared with a deficit of $232 billion in the same period a year earlier.
Source - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/eight-month-deficit-feds-spent-73-7-billion-more-than-they-took-in/
1. YTD deficit of $73B - https://infotel.ca/newsitem/fiscal-monitor/cp2130154807
2. Currency - https://www.reuters.com/article/canada-forex/canada-fx-debt-c-posts-biggest-weekly-decline-since-august-on-risk-aversion-idUKL1N2U829F
3. GDP - https://betterdwelling.com/bank-of-canada-quietly-revised-its-gdp-forecast-to-show-a-larger-housing-contraction/
4. Green inflation - https://euobserver.com/climate/154220
5. Trade - https://worldrepublicnews.com/united-states-defeats-canada-in-first-dispute-under-new-north-american-trade-pact/
6. Skills gaps - https://worldrepublicnews.com/united-states-defeats-canada-in-first-dispute-under-new-north-american-trade-pact/
7. Input Costs / AG - https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/planting/farming-input-costs-are-rising-how-producers-are-managing-risk
8. Middle class taxes - https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/planting/farming-input-costs-are-rising-how-producers-are-managing-risk
9. Wealth taxes - https://financesofthenation.ca/2022/01/26/why-wont-canada-increase-taxes-on-capital-gains-of-the-wealthiest-families/
10. Value for money - https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/01/26/value-for-money-audit-could-unlock-police-ingenuity-creativity-and-innovation.html
11. Funding transit - https://fcm.ca/en/news-media/news-release/big-city-mayors-federal-government-public-transit-needs-our-help
12. What plans?
a. https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-development/news/2022/01/government-of-canada-delivers-on-commitment-to-reduce-cell-phone-wireless-plans-by-25.html
i. This is misleading because it is based on plans. https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/carriers/rogers/rogers-telus-bell-have-lowered-cellphone-plans-by-25-as-agreed-says-ottawa/
1. If you renew your plan than you will see different rates due to what is being offered.
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - March 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Federal fiscal deficit hit nearly 96B for the FY ending March 2022
OPP costs continue to plague municipal and local government budgets
More needs to be done from all levels of government to mitigate the impacts of climate change
All levels of government need to address issues with housing
Governments need to start looking at the operational model as part of managing costs.
All levels of government need revisit tax policies to ensure fairness.
More needs to be done to address skill gaps and economic development
More needs to be done to address issues with healthcare wait times
Better alignment of education with the jobs of today and tomorrow
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Public Sector – What is next for Canada – June 2022
The federal public services have expanded by over 50K job and yet there are backlogs with passports, immigration, and other areas of government
Federal government deficits pre-covid nineteen did little to address productivity, innovation, skills gaps, and affordable housing.
Canada per capita GDP trails other countries like Qatar https://georank.org/economy/canada/qatar and Australia https://georank.org/economy/australia/canada
Canada continues to struggle with high inflation - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chrystia-freeland-inflation-1.6501750
There was a budgetary deficit of $3.7 billion in October 2021, compared to a deficit of $18.5 billion in October 2020. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses and gains was $5.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $17.2 billion in the same period of 2020–21. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses and gains is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses and gains arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans
Source - https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/10.html
1. Fiscal update - https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/feds-fiscal-update-is-all-about-covid-but-does-too-little-to-address-root-cause/
2. Housing - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-forecast-to-rise-while-incomes-fall-fitch-ratings/
3. Fitch - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/canadian-provinces-rebound-in-2022-debt-bears-watching-13-12-2021
4. Food costs - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/canadian-provinces-rebound-in-2022-debt-bears-watching-13-12-2021
5. Income and food costs - https://globalnews.ca/video/8458094/most-canadians-dont-believe-their-income-will-keep-up-with-rising-food-prices/amp/
6. 2B trees - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-trees-planting-climate-1.6288938
7. Critical metals - https://www.sudbury.com/beyond-local/mining-the-future-canadas-high-hopes-to-become-a-global-critical-mineral-powerhouse-4870557
8. China - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-china-is-buying-up-the-critical-green-revolution-minerals-sector-in/
9. LNG - https://thenarwhal.ca/bc-last-lng-project/
10. Oil Production - https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-canada-set-to-smash-oil-production-record-in-2022-and-thats-a-little-bearish-for-oil
11. Manufacturing - https://www.conferenceboard.ca/insights/featured/canadian-economics/manufacturing-sales-show-signs-of-life
The federal government ran a deficit of nearly $69 billion over the first half its fiscal year, almost $130 billion less than the treasury pumped out during the same stretch one year earlier.
The Finance Department’s fiscal monitor says the budgetary deficit between April and September was $68.6 billion, down from the $198.1 billion recorded over the same months in 2020 when Covid-19 first struck.
Source - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/federal-deficit-hits-nearly-69b-over-first-half-of-fiscal-year/
1. Deficit / Canada - https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/canada-records-c6857-bln-budget-deficit-over-first-six-months-202122-2021-11-26/
2. BOC / qualitative easing - https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/11/financial-stability-through-the-pandemic-and-beyond/
3. Inflation - https://financialpost.com/opinion/philip-cross-government-is-driving-inflation
4. Household debt - https://www.consolidatedcreditcanada.ca/financial-news/household-debt/
5. https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1464071997286232100 Hey Evan - Sep/19 also seen higher inflation compared to Oct/15 but there was no comment from you back in Sep/19, why? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-cost-of-living-canada-june-2019 There was also no comment how GDP growth went from 3.0% (2017) to 1.6% (2019), right? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
6. Interest rates - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/bank-of-canada-accelerates-potential-timing-of-rate-hikes
7. Housing - https://theconversation.com/want-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-address-super-charged-demand-169809
8. Consumer spending - https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker/
9. Infrastructure bank - https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/projects/2021/11/cib-hits-its-stride-with-20-projects-in-its-portfolio
10. https://globalnews.ca/news/8404028/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-bc-flood-zone/ Is @JustinTrudeau taking his surfboard? Many of us already know it will be lots of word salad and little said about all levels of government failing to safeguard assets! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-and-emergency-management-risk-management-how-best-to-manage-risk
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - January 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Canada heads to a very difficult time with a government that solely focus on its progressive agenda and climate change. The government continues push forward with new programs despite a structural deficit that has not been addressed since the December 2019.
Summary:
There was a budgetary deficit of $3.9 billion in July 2022, compared to a deficit of $10.9 billion in July 2021. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $3.0 billion, compared to a deficit of $9.6 billion in the same period of 2021-22. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government’s financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses arising from the revaluation of the government’s pension and other employee future benefit plans.
As expected, the government’s 2022-23 financial results continue to improve compared to the peak of the COVID-19 crisis and the unprecedented level of temporary COVID-19 response measures at the time.
Source – Government of Canada
Fiscal support / Economy
The IMF said that fiscal policy should stay in place to support vulnerable households and firms until recovery takes hold and even then, many low-income countries will need additional assistance through grants, concessional financing, longer suspensions of debt service and in some cases, debt restructurings.
It also called for fiscal policy to "enable a green, digital and inclusive transformation." This includes investments in health systems, job training and hiring subsidies, promoting greater tax fairness, and cutting wasteful spending.
https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/business/reuters/imf-says-fiscal-support-needed-until-recovery-takes-hold-546056/
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - March 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Federal fiscal deficit hit nearly 96B for the FY ending March 2022
OPP costs continue to plague municipal and local government budgets
More needs to be done from all levels of government to mitigate the impacts of climate change
All levels of government need to address issues with housing
Governments need to start looking at the operational model as part of managing costs.
All levels of government need revisit tax policies to ensure fairness.
More needs to be done to address skill gaps and economic development
More needs to be done to address issues with healthcare wait times
Better alignment of education with the jobs of today and tomorrow
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Public Sector – What is next for Canada – June 2022
The federal public services have expanded by over 50K job and yet there are backlogs with passports, immigration, and other areas of government
Federal government deficits pre-covid nineteen did little to address productivity, innovation, skills gaps, and affordable housing.
Canada per capita GDP trails other countries like Qatar https://georank.org/economy/canada/qatar and Australia https://georank.org/economy/australia/canada
Canada continues to struggle with high inflation - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chrystia-freeland-inflation-1.6501750
There was a budgetary deficit of $3.7 billion in October 2021, compared to a deficit of $18.5 billion in October 2020. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses and gains was $5.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $17.2 billion in the same period of 2020–21. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses and gains is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses and gains arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans
Source - https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/10.html
1. Fiscal update - https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/feds-fiscal-update-is-all-about-covid-but-does-too-little-to-address-root-cause/
2. Housing - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-forecast-to-rise-while-incomes-fall-fitch-ratings/
3. Fitch - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/canadian-provinces-rebound-in-2022-debt-bears-watching-13-12-2021
4. Food costs - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/canadian-provinces-rebound-in-2022-debt-bears-watching-13-12-2021
5. Income and food costs - https://globalnews.ca/video/8458094/most-canadians-dont-believe-their-income-will-keep-up-with-rising-food-prices/amp/
6. 2B trees - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-trees-planting-climate-1.6288938
7. Critical metals - https://www.sudbury.com/beyond-local/mining-the-future-canadas-high-hopes-to-become-a-global-critical-mineral-powerhouse-4870557
8. China - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-china-is-buying-up-the-critical-green-revolution-minerals-sector-in/
9. LNG - https://thenarwhal.ca/bc-last-lng-project/
10. Oil Production - https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-canada-set-to-smash-oil-production-record-in-2022-and-thats-a-little-bearish-for-oil
11. Manufacturing - https://www.conferenceboard.ca/insights/featured/canadian-economics/manufacturing-sales-show-signs-of-life
The federal government ran a deficit of nearly $69 billion over the first half its fiscal year, almost $130 billion less than the treasury pumped out during the same stretch one year earlier.
The Finance Department’s fiscal monitor says the budgetary deficit between April and September was $68.6 billion, down from the $198.1 billion recorded over the same months in 2020 when Covid-19 first struck.
Source - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/federal-deficit-hits-nearly-69b-over-first-half-of-fiscal-year/
1. Deficit / Canada - https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/canada-records-c6857-bln-budget-deficit-over-first-six-months-202122-2021-11-26/
2. BOC / qualitative easing - https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/11/financial-stability-through-the-pandemic-and-beyond/
3. Inflation - https://financialpost.com/opinion/philip-cross-government-is-driving-inflation
4. Household debt - https://www.consolidatedcreditcanada.ca/financial-news/household-debt/
5. https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1464071997286232100 Hey Evan - Sep/19 also seen higher inflation compared to Oct/15 but there was no comment from you back in Sep/19, why? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-cost-of-living-canada-june-2019 There was also no comment how GDP growth went from 3.0% (2017) to 1.6% (2019), right? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
6. Interest rates - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/bank-of-canada-accelerates-potential-timing-of-rate-hikes
7. Housing - https://theconversation.com/want-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-address-super-charged-demand-169809
8. Consumer spending - https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker/
9. Infrastructure bank - https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/projects/2021/11/cib-hits-its-stride-with-20-projects-in-its-portfolio
10. https://globalnews.ca/news/8404028/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-bc-flood-zone/ Is @JustinTrudeau taking his surfboard? Many of us already know it will be lots of word salad and little said about all levels of government failing to safeguard assets! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-and-emergency-management-risk-management-how-best-to-manage-risk
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - January 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Canada heads to a very difficult time with a government that solely focus on its progressive agenda and climate change. The government continues push forward with new programs despite a structural deficit that has not been addressed since the December 2019.
Summary:
There was a budgetary deficit of $3.9 billion in July 2022, compared to a deficit of $10.9 billion in July 2021. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $3.0 billion, compared to a deficit of $9.6 billion in the same period of 2021-22. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government’s financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses arising from the revaluation of the government’s pension and other employee future benefit plans.
As expected, the government’s 2022-23 financial results continue to improve compared to the peak of the COVID-19 crisis and the unprecedented level of temporary COVID-19 response measures at the time.
Source – Government of Canada
Fiscal support / Economy
The IMF said that fiscal policy should stay in place to support vulnerable households and firms until recovery takes hold and even then, many low-income countries will need additional assistance through grants, concessional financing, longer suspensions of debt service and in some cases, debt restructurings.
It also called for fiscal policy to "enable a green, digital and inclusive transformation." This includes investments in health systems, job training and hiring subsidies, promoting greater tax fairness, and cutting wasteful spending.
https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/business/reuters/imf-says-fiscal-support-needed-until-recovery-takes-hold-546056/
Fiscal Management| Cycle| Analysis and Commentary| Canadapaul young cpa, cga
Military procurement - https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/RP-2021-040-C--cost-canada-surface-combatants-2021-update-options-analysis--cout-navires-combat-canadiens-mise-jour-2021-analyse-options or https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/frigate-fleet-cost-1.5926000
Failures on many procurement and policies like clean water for first nations – new audit reports - https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/mr_lp_e_1455.html
There is still no fiscal anchor - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-economy-idUSKBN2AG2AV
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary
Canada projected a 12B deficit for FY 2023. The current surplus of $5B is primarily to do with higher revenue and lower expenses being paid out. The economy is about hit major headway as such taxes should start to drop over the next 5-6 months. Government expenses will likely grow over the next few months.
Canada fiscal management - deficit and debt - february 2021paul young cpa, cga
1. digital and luxury levies - https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-s-budget-to-include-digital-and-luxury-levies-but-no-wealth-tax-reuters-sources-1.5392475
2. Tax havens and Panama Papers - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cra-panama-papers-audits-5-years-1.5974690
3. Public registry - https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/04/21/ottawa-targets-tax-evaders-with-public-registry-of-corporate-owners.html
4. AG and vaccines - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/04/13/federal-auditor-general-to-start-probe-into-vaccines-this-year/293209
5. Holding the govt accountable - https://www.pentictonherald.ca/opinion/article_b48b630e-9878-11eb-bbfe-8734610eab46.html
6. C10 - @s_guilbeault is the last person that should be speaking about restrictions of the internet. I am guessing that @gmbutts is still calling the shots as a way to protect @JustinTrudeau from being exposed as a fraud - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/governance-model-canada-federal-government-april-23-2021 or https://troymedia.com/politicslaw/crtc-overreaching-with-its-proposed-internet-regulations/#.YIxWAaEpBPY
7. We do not need a judge investigating. We need someone like Mercer or another HR organization investigating the issues. https://www.mercer.ca/en/what-we-do/workforce-and-careers/hr-transformation.html# Liberals’ record on making improvements after they have failed has been abysmal! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-justin-trudeau-accountability-and-transparency
8. CMHC spent nearly a million dollars to delete the word “mortgage” from its name, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Staff in internal emails enthused the marketing exercise “gave them chills” and wanted to celebrate with champagne, according to Access To Information records disclosed yesterday by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation: “I wish we could pop open some bubbly together!” https://www.blacklocks.ca/paid-925k-to-delete-a-word/
@MPJulian and the NDP
Shutdown tax-havens.
Fix the tax act.
Getting more value for money out of program spending
The focus should be on protecting the environment while growing the economy in a sustainable way.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/tax-fairness-and-business-competitiveness-analysis
9. Disaster mitigation fund - https://www.municipalworld.com/press-releases/amo-reveals-municipal-government-highlights-from-budget-2021/
a. This does not replace the need to have proper crisis and emergency management reporting - https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0
All governments have to follow their fiscal management cycle and that includes internal audit programs. The problem is too many governments put little focus on operational and performance audits as part of managing their fiscal cycle.
Fiscal and Economic Management| Canada| August 2020| Analysis and Commentarypaul young cpa, cga
The government under their mandate is faced with the election mandate along with facing geopolitical issues that drive both the fiscal management cycle and the economy. This presentation looks at various issues facing Canada including what is required to resolve the various issues
Bank of Canada| What is next for Canada's Monetary Policiespaul young cpa, cga
“Having said that, we knew that Omicron-induced restrictions will undoubtedly slow the economic recovery, making the Bank of Canada cautious. An increase in rates when two of Canada’s biggest provinces are under strict restrictions might have sent the wrong signals.”
Source - https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-0126-22
1. Canada household debt - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pattie-lovett-reid-are-you-going-to-get-hurt-by-higher-rates-it-doesn-t-have-to-be-that-way-1.1714123
2. Productivity - https://abacusdata.ca/shortage-economy-canada-polling/
3. Business investment - https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/news/canada/will-rate-hikes-dampen-canadas-already-lacklustre-business-investment-100685123/
4. Startups - https://financialpost.com/sponsored/business-sponsored/embracing-entrepreneurship-for-all-to-drive-canadas-innovation-economy-forward
5. AI - https://stories.td.com/ca/en/news/2022-01-26-td-builds-on-commitment-to-advance-ai-with-early-renewal-of
6. Skills - https://stories.td.com/ca/en/news/2022-01-26-td-builds-on-commitment-to-advance-ai-with-early-renewal-of
7. Supply chain - https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/january/covid-clampdown-guarantees-supply-chain-disruption/
8. Freight - https://www.fm-magazine.com/news/2022/jan/freight-rates-wont-ease-2022.html
9. Career - https://smartasset.com/data-studies/best-jobs-that-dont-require-a-bachelors-degree-2022
10. Trades - https://www.cimmigrationnews.com/canada-needs-to-reform-immigration-system-to-help-skill-trades-says-ontario-organization/
11. Business automation - https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/01/25/why-manufacturing-automation-should-dominate-the-2022-business-agenda/?sh=24b98668176e
Household Spending, Savings and Income (Income Inequality .pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Here is my latest look at household consumption, taxation, and income.
Justin Trudeau is continuing on his social spending plan. The problem is there was a structural deficit pre-covid19.
There has been little discussion of a economic road map as part of the managing COVID19. The economy has many parts to it as such govt needs to come up with fiscal and economic road map as part moving Canada through the COVID19 crisis.
Fiscal Management| Cycle| Analysis and Commentary| Canadapaul young cpa, cga
Military procurement - https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/RP-2021-040-C--cost-canada-surface-combatants-2021-update-options-analysis--cout-navires-combat-canadiens-mise-jour-2021-analyse-options or https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/frigate-fleet-cost-1.5926000
Failures on many procurement and policies like clean water for first nations – new audit reports - https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/mr_lp_e_1455.html
There is still no fiscal anchor - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-economy-idUSKBN2AG2AV
Canada - Fiscal Management - Deficit and Debt - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary
Canada projected a 12B deficit for FY 2023. The current surplus of $5B is primarily to do with higher revenue and lower expenses being paid out. The economy is about hit major headway as such taxes should start to drop over the next 5-6 months. Government expenses will likely grow over the next few months.
Canada fiscal management - deficit and debt - february 2021paul young cpa, cga
1. digital and luxury levies - https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-s-budget-to-include-digital-and-luxury-levies-but-no-wealth-tax-reuters-sources-1.5392475
2. Tax havens and Panama Papers - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cra-panama-papers-audits-5-years-1.5974690
3. Public registry - https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/04/21/ottawa-targets-tax-evaders-with-public-registry-of-corporate-owners.html
4. AG and vaccines - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/04/13/federal-auditor-general-to-start-probe-into-vaccines-this-year/293209
5. Holding the govt accountable - https://www.pentictonherald.ca/opinion/article_b48b630e-9878-11eb-bbfe-8734610eab46.html
6. C10 - @s_guilbeault is the last person that should be speaking about restrictions of the internet. I am guessing that @gmbutts is still calling the shots as a way to protect @JustinTrudeau from being exposed as a fraud - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/governance-model-canada-federal-government-april-23-2021 or https://troymedia.com/politicslaw/crtc-overreaching-with-its-proposed-internet-regulations/#.YIxWAaEpBPY
7. We do not need a judge investigating. We need someone like Mercer or another HR organization investigating the issues. https://www.mercer.ca/en/what-we-do/workforce-and-careers/hr-transformation.html# Liberals’ record on making improvements after they have failed has been abysmal! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-justin-trudeau-accountability-and-transparency
8. CMHC spent nearly a million dollars to delete the word “mortgage” from its name, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Staff in internal emails enthused the marketing exercise “gave them chills” and wanted to celebrate with champagne, according to Access To Information records disclosed yesterday by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation: “I wish we could pop open some bubbly together!” https://www.blacklocks.ca/paid-925k-to-delete-a-word/
@MPJulian and the NDP
Shutdown tax-havens.
Fix the tax act.
Getting more value for money out of program spending
The focus should be on protecting the environment while growing the economy in a sustainable way.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/tax-fairness-and-business-competitiveness-analysis
9. Disaster mitigation fund - https://www.municipalworld.com/press-releases/amo-reveals-municipal-government-highlights-from-budget-2021/
a. This does not replace the need to have proper crisis and emergency management reporting - https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0
All governments have to follow their fiscal management cycle and that includes internal audit programs. The problem is too many governments put little focus on operational and performance audits as part of managing their fiscal cycle.
Fiscal and Economic Management| Canada| August 2020| Analysis and Commentarypaul young cpa, cga
The government under their mandate is faced with the election mandate along with facing geopolitical issues that drive both the fiscal management cycle and the economy. This presentation looks at various issues facing Canada including what is required to resolve the various issues
Bank of Canada| What is next for Canada's Monetary Policiespaul young cpa, cga
“Having said that, we knew that Omicron-induced restrictions will undoubtedly slow the economic recovery, making the Bank of Canada cautious. An increase in rates when two of Canada’s biggest provinces are under strict restrictions might have sent the wrong signals.”
Source - https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-0126-22
1. Canada household debt - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pattie-lovett-reid-are-you-going-to-get-hurt-by-higher-rates-it-doesn-t-have-to-be-that-way-1.1714123
2. Productivity - https://abacusdata.ca/shortage-economy-canada-polling/
3. Business investment - https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/news/canada/will-rate-hikes-dampen-canadas-already-lacklustre-business-investment-100685123/
4. Startups - https://financialpost.com/sponsored/business-sponsored/embracing-entrepreneurship-for-all-to-drive-canadas-innovation-economy-forward
5. AI - https://stories.td.com/ca/en/news/2022-01-26-td-builds-on-commitment-to-advance-ai-with-early-renewal-of
6. Skills - https://stories.td.com/ca/en/news/2022-01-26-td-builds-on-commitment-to-advance-ai-with-early-renewal-of
7. Supply chain - https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/january/covid-clampdown-guarantees-supply-chain-disruption/
8. Freight - https://www.fm-magazine.com/news/2022/jan/freight-rates-wont-ease-2022.html
9. Career - https://smartasset.com/data-studies/best-jobs-that-dont-require-a-bachelors-degree-2022
10. Trades - https://www.cimmigrationnews.com/canada-needs-to-reform-immigration-system-to-help-skill-trades-says-ontario-organization/
11. Business automation - https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/01/25/why-manufacturing-automation-should-dominate-the-2022-business-agenda/?sh=24b98668176e
Household Spending, Savings and Income (Income Inequality .pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Here is my latest look at household consumption, taxation, and income.
Justin Trudeau is continuing on his social spending plan. The problem is there was a structural deficit pre-covid19.
There has been little discussion of a economic road map as part of the managing COVID19. The economy has many parts to it as such govt needs to come up with fiscal and economic road map as part moving Canada through the COVID19 crisis.
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and
MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and
Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and
Platform
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
3. Introduction
This presentation looks at key planks by
the Liberals as well as fiscal
management cycle for each party.
Federal government has undertaken
$252B+ in deficit spending as part of the
COVID19 response.
4. Agenda
• Fiscal Update
• FY 19/20 – Fiscal Management Cycle – Canada
• FY 20/21 – Fiscal Management – Federal Government
• FY 20/21 – Fiscal Management Cycle – Provinces
• Pandemic Response
• Credit Downgrade
• Size of Government
• GDP Growth / Provinces
• Job Quality – USA vs Canada
• Affordability
• GDP / Canada
• Key Metrics / GDP comments
• Importance of Audit (Operational and Performance Audit)
• PBO / Deficit
• Paul Martin years
• 1980-1982 Recession
• 2009 Recession
• Failure of Trudeanomics
• Key Policy Reviews
5. Fiscal Management – 2021/2022
Source – Government of Canada -
Fiscal Monitor -
Canada - 20223001.pdf
6. Fiscal Update
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/4eaa72b1-7c11-45d3-927a-cc2227536362/
• Liberals cuts tax rates but made up for those tax cuts
• Liberals are leading to a structure deficit which
means higher taxes, like GST. Each point of GST is
worth about $5B.
• New Taxes or Hikes
• Elimination of boutique tax credits
• Hikes to CPP
• Estimated costs $150 to $300 more per year
- https://www.newswire.ca/news-
releases/january-1-cpp-hikes-to-hit-
employers-payroll-budgets-cut-take-home-
wages-for-workers-805159419.html
• Carbon Tax is adding $1,400 to 2,000K
additional costs to households -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-
real-truth-about-emissions-and-carbon-taxation
• Fuel Standard change / new carbon tax
• Estimated Costs $500 to $1,000 per
household - https://www.newswire.ca/news-
releases/clean-fuels-standard-will-increase-
household-costs-for-canadians-capp-
819531042.html
11. Blog – Path Forward for Canada
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail
/883e0db8-9758-4eb8-b867-7e2436f44c62/
Blog – Path Forward for Canada
Key benefits of the budget
EI reforms for sick leave
OAS changes
Training credits
My issues
Not enough is being done to address either the size of
government or fixing policies that will make Canada
more competitive.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/path-forward-
for-canada-budget-2021
13. Pandemic Stimulus – Canada
Source - https://covid19.pbo-dpb.ca/#/en/costing-economic-response-plan--etablissement-des-couts-plan-intervention-economique or https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/even-with-slow-burn-pandemic-deficit-on-track-to-hit-330b-
pbo-1.1500931 or https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-fiscal-update-morneau-projects-3432-billion-deficit-federal-debt/ or https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publications/economic-fiscal-
snapshot/summary.html or https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.fiscal-policy.fiscal-pulse.federal.federal-budget-analysis.federal-fiscal-update--july-8--2020-.html or
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/bfc3da39-09a0-4c85-a1ce-94605da45117/
• Canada was already in a deficit position pre-covid19 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-fiscal-management-plan-conservative-
party-of-canada-ndp-green-party-of-canada-liberal-party-of-canada-ppc
• Many aspects of the stimulus package have either been wasted or poorly targeted -
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/poor-cerb-targeting-wastes-billions or
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-about-41-of-small-businesses-surveyed-
say-landlords-have-applied-for/
14. Deficit as % of GDP
Source - https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/budget-deficit-canada_ca_5f89a94fc5b62dbe71c23326?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter
15. Downgrading
of Debt
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/
en/publications/detail/5f3625
7b-4df7-443b-b5d2-
c348e290327c/
Fitch Rating
itch Ratings - New York - 24 Jun 2020: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Canada's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The rating downgrade reflects the deterioration of Canada's public finances in 2020 resulting from the coronavirus pandemic.
Canada will run a much expanded general government deficit in 2020 and emerge from recession with much higher public debt
ratios. The higher deficit is largely driven by public spending to counteract a sharp fall in output as parts of the economy were
shuttered to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Although this will support recovery, the economy's investment and growth
prospects face challenges.
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that Canada's consolidated gross general government debt/GDP will stabilize
over the medium term, in line with the pre-coronavirus policies, and that the economy will gradually recover, supported by
significant counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies.
Canada's structural strengths also underpin the ratings. These include its advanced, well-diversified and high-income economy,
and Canada's political stability, strong governance and macro policy framework, which has delivered steady growth and low
inflation. Canada has a large positive net international investment position, driven by its foreign pension assets. However,
reliance on foreign portfolio flows to finance sustained current account deficits is a weakness, which has contributed to a
persistent and growing level of net external debt.
Source: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-canada-ratings-to-aa-outlook-stable-24-06-2020
Summary
Lower bond rating means higher interest rates as bond raters will demand a premium for Cdn bonds
Trudeau was warned about the govt debt, but Morneau kept saying all was well -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-and-insolvency-global-crisis
Trudeau has failed the goods producing sector with his carbon tax, small business tax reforms, excessive regulations, weak
infrastructure spending, etc. - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-going-on-with-canadas-competitiveness
Natural Resources were struggling since late last years as Trudeau stood back when there was blockades and other issues.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-natural-resources-sector-whats-next
17. Size of Government
Source - https://www.blacklocks.ca/average-staffer-costs-115k/
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pbo-more-spending-not-more-workers-driving-costs-for-federal-
employees-1.1492043
18. GDP / Growth
Source – BMO, Finance Canada, Scotiabank, CIBC, RBC and TD Economics
- Mining Nov/20 GDP had the highest growth compared to Oct/20.
- Retail Sales GDP Nov/20 were anemic despite Black Friday happening in November 2020.
- More and more people are holding on to their money.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-and-fiscal-management-canada-november-2020 or
Nov/16 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2016-november-2016-gdp-gross-domestic-product-canada
Apr/19 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-slow-growth-april-2019
May/21 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-naics-may-2021
24. GDP and restructuring
• Many of the economies continue to be impacted by COVID19 –
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-liberal-party-of-
canada-fiscal-and-economic
• Post-COVID 19 economy should include a focus on supply
management - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-
liberal-party-of-canada-fiscal-and-economic
• Countries around the world are going need to push for trade reforms
including reforming of key groups like WHO and WTO –
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-economy-whats-
next
• All levels of governments around the world will require a
restructuring - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/public-
sector-how-to-reform-all-levels-of-government
25. Importance of Audits
• More oversight i.e. Infrastructure funding -
https://nationalpost.com/news/opposition-pushes-for-audit-of-
trudeaus-187b-infrastructure-plans-underscoring-weakened-
liberal-position-in-house or medical supplies -
https://thepostmillennial.com/trudeau-governments-medical-
equipment-blunder-cost-taxpayers-1-8-billion
• In times of fiscal crisis there is need for more oversight and audits
- https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/auditor-general-says-lack-of-
funding-covid-19-demands-have-put-all-but-three-audits-on-
pause/
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-
of-value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits
26. Departmental Issues
1. Liberals have created a new entity called the Ocean Super cluster. This entity seems to be a duplicate of what work
is already being done through the fisheries agencies - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/aquaculture-fish-
farming-and-harvesting-analysis (see slide 17)
2. I have reviewed the coast guard and there are issues with the Coast Guard -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-policy-public-safety-canada-coast-guard
3. Trudeau has not been clear about 5G, especially in terms of contracts -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-security-threats-from-5g-leads-to-new-selection-of-5g-vendors
4. CRA needs to revisit its mandate in terms of auditing charities as well as shutting down tax havens -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/closing-down-of-tax-havens
5. I have seen little discussion on the cannabis policy including mental health as well as enforcement costs -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-policy-legalization-of-cannabis-canada
6. More work needs to be done to reform the delivery of healthcare -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-global-healthcare-post-covid19
7. Liberals policies for the AG sector need to have a full review - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-
next-for-farming-in-canada-analysis-of-economic-and-government-policies
8. eCommerce continues to expand as such so should the policies of the government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ecommerce-whats-next
9. The government needs a performance audit of its youth employment policies -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-youth-development
10. There needs to be performance audit of CERB as part of moving people off of CERB -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-analysis-guarantee-income
27. Departmental Issues
1. Commercial Rent - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-government-paying-84m-to-firm-employing-katie-telfords-husband-to-
manage-rent-assistance-aid-program?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1596846898 Trudeau government
paying $84M to firm employing Katie Telford's husband to manage rent assistance aid program. This another example of awarding friends without
having the AG do performance audits.- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-spouse-of-pms-chief-of-staff-had-meeting-on-liberals-rent-
relief/
2. EV sales have been sluggish despite the government support - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-electrical-vehicle-market
3. Masks companies with no facilities - https://torontosun.com/news/national/questions-arise-about-quebec-companys-federal-contract-for-masks -
Other companies were already producing masks - https://betakit.com/ppe-manufacturer-the-canadian-shield-launches-new-surgical-mask-line/ or
https://www.dupont.ca/en/personal-protective-equipment.html
4. Foreign Aid – There are still issues with reporting including performance audits - The distribution of Foreign Aid is very important to countries as part of
helping developing countries improve water, education, farming practices, infrastructure, and other areas of their economy.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/foreign-aid-bringing-more-accountability-transparency-and-oversight
5. Telefilm Canada releases its audit report - https://www.oag-
bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/mr_20200727_e_43597.html “We found that the corporation had some good
corporate management practices in place. However, we found areas for improvement in practices related to
board oversight; board independence; performance measurement, monitoring, and reporting; and risk
mitigation, monitoring, and reporting
6. Payroll management system - https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2020-foag-pm/index-
en.aspx
7. Lack of oversight / Beirut mission - https://www.international.gc.ca/gac-amc/publications/audits-
verification/2019/beirut-beyrouth.aspx?lang=eng
8. Audit of all COVID19 programs - https://www.todayville.com/191820-2/
28. Audits – Pandemic
• Liberals rushed out many
programs without the proper
controls
• Liberals pandemic plan was a
failure. The liberals never did
thorough testing of any of their
crisis management plans -
https://www.slideshare.net/pauly
oungcga/why-there-needs-to-be-
audited-reports-of-crisis-
emergency-management-
policies-and-procedures
• Many programs had issues with
delivery
29. PBO / Deficit
• CERB / extension cost “Eight more weeks of CERB to cost $17.9 billion,
budget officer says” https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-extension-pbo-
1.5623507
• Federal deficit will be much larger “The parliamentary budget officer says in a
new report that this year's federal deficit could hit $256 billion due to the
COVID-19 pandemic. The result, posted this morning, is the combination of
an estimated total of $169 billion in federal spending on emergency aid and a
historic drop in economic output. The budget office estimates the economy
could shrink by 6.8 per cent in 2020, the weakest showing since 1981 and
double the record of 3.2 per cent shrinkage in 1982. The overall deficit figure
is only $3.8 billion higher than budget officer Yves Giroux's previous
predictions, which his report says is due to a better economic outlook in the
second half of the year that offsets some new spending. ”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-deficit-pbo-1.5617221
• Government will require restructuring as part of post-covid19 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transforming-the-public-sector-
canada
30. PBO
• Issues with losses at Crown Corporations -
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pbo-flags-high-borrowing-
unusual-losses-at-crown-corporations-in-report-1.5027186
• Paid leave / government -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/pbo-report-699-
leave-during-covid-1.5661696 (Cost of leave has led to
$632M Productivity losses)
31. Paul Martin years
• It never seems to amaze me how little people research history. It is like they
take scripts from Liberals sites as the only source of the truth. The problem is
Liberals like any other party will not tell you the complete truth,
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-fiscal-management-
canada-june-2019 (see slide 26)
• Slashed transfers – Trudeau had no issues with slashing transfers under Paul
Martin - https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/justin-trudeau-weighs-in-on-
paul-martins-decision-to-slash-provincial-transfers/. Harper did fiscal discipline
and Trudeau calls that out - https://www.liberal.ca/growing-our-economy-ralph-
goodale/. No were does Trudeau and his team mention how Harper left $1B
surplus YTD Nov/15 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-stephen-
harper-years-pm-of-canada
• Restructure EI including taking surpluses into operations -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/government-broke-law-on-ei-financing-in-3-
years-top-court-1.750084
32. 1980-1982 Recession – Pierre Trudeau
• 1980-1982 Recession
• High interest rates
• Movement away from the branch manufacturing approach to
manufacturing
• High government debt and deficits
• https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/unemployment-reaches-all-time-high-in-
1982
Similarities
• 2020 will see labor force change due to automation - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-
automation-private-and-public-sector
• Youth unemployment will be an issue due to many lacking the skills required for today and tomorrow’s workplace -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/automation-and-human-capital-management-human-resources
• Issue is not with interest rates, but the size of the debt - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/covid19-global-
debt-crisis-july-2020
• Inflation is creeping up in Canada but is nowhere near the 14% -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/affordability-analysis-and-commentary-canada-june-2020 . There are
issues with food prices as well as wage growth - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-wages-and-
employment-canada-may-2020
33. 2009 Recession
The Great Recession that began in 2008 led to some of the highest recorded rates of unemployment and home
foreclosures in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Catalyzed by the crisis in subprime mortgage-backed
securities, the crisis spread to mutual funds, pensions, and the corporations that owned these securities, with
widespread national and global impacts. Ten years after the onset of the crisis, the impacts on workers and
economic inequality persist. In a series of policy briefs, IRLE will highlight work by Berkeley faculty on the causes
and long-term effects of the Recession. In this brief, we review research from IRLE faculty affiliate and UC
Berkeley sociologist Neil Fligstein on the root causes of the Great Recession.
Source - https://irle.berkeley.edu/what-really-caused-the-great-recession/
Government action:
• Government did a stimulus as part of supporting the economy
• Loans to business
• Infrastructure spending
• Liberals backed by NDP and Bloc demanded the stimulus -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/liberals-ndp-bloc-sign-deal-on-proposed-coalition-
1.700119
• Harper years - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-stephen-harper-years-pm-
of-canada
34. Failure of
Trudeaunomics
• The sad thing is the economy has been sliding for a few years due to Trudeaunomics being a failure!
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/failure-of-trudeaunomics
• Carbon tax and other changes have made things less affordable - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/justin-trudeau-
and-liberals-have-liberal-policies-made-things-more-affordable-for-canadians
• GDP growth pre-COVID was running at 2.0% which is about the same rate as the past 20 years -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-slow-growth-liberal-party-of-canada-december-7-2016
• Trudeau introduce policies that did little to get goods to market or support small business -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-whats-next-for-small-business or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-natural-resources-sector-whats-next
• There has been a job quality issues as Trudeau’s policies did little to support goods producing sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-quality-canada-235057299
• Trudeau continues to push guarantee income despite guarantee income being a failure around the world -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-guarantee-income-the-right-approach-for-canada-and-other-countries
35. Key Policy Review
• Indigenous Affairs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policies-and-affairs-indigenous-first-nations-analysis-
and-commentary
• Defense Spending - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-analysis-defense-spending-canada
• EI - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-analysis-employment-insurance-and-cerb-canada
• Cannabis - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/cannabis-legalization-canada-policy-analysis
• Innovation - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-support-business-startups
• Income inequality - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/pandemic-and-covid19-canada-and-the-world
• Post-Secondary Education - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/postsecondary-education-outcomes-canada
• Youth Employment - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-youth-employment-analysis-and-
commentary
• Social Welfare and Housing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canadas-reforming-of-social-welfare-
programs
• Foreign Policies and Affairs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/foreign-policies-and-affairs-middle-east-
238725972 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-review-october-2020-immigration-and-refugees-
canada
• Pharmacare/drug production - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-biotech-and-pharmaceutical-
manufacturing
• Rail Transportation and Safety - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-rail-transportation-shipments-
and-safety-239477073
• Water Management - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/water-management-and-systems-canada-and-the-
world
• Foreign Aid - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/foreign-aid-how-to-improve-outcomes
• Gender equality - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/women-and-the-great-2020-global-recession
• Emissions and Climate Change - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-emissions-and-climate-change-
canada-and-the-world
36. Summary
• Broken Promises - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/justin-trudeau-
era-of-broken-promises-and-deterioration-of-the-cost-of-living-for-canadians
• Canada will have a long road a head when it comes to fixing its economy and
fiscal management cycle by all levels of government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-gdp-and-economy-truth-
and-what-needs-to-change
• Canada will need a plan that deals with job quality, fdi, goods producing
sector, affordable housing, tax fairness and value for money social programs -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transforming-the-economy-
postcovid19-canada-and-the-world
• Getting goods to market - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-
address-issues-facing-getting-goods-to-market
• Reforming Government - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-
reform-the-public-sector-in-canada-and-around-the-world
• Circular Economy – https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-best-
support-a-circular-economy
• Global Economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-
the-global-economy-october-2020
• Ethics, accountable, transparent, and honest government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/governance-model-for-canada-are-
liberals-more-transparent-and-open or March 2021 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/governance-model-canada-federal-
government-march-22-2021
• Transit - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transit-and-canada-
analysis-and-commentary
• September 2020 and October 2020 – Scorecard -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-october-2020-and-
september-2020-canada or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-
macro-and-micro-indicators-for-canada-december-2020-and-january-2021
37. Other
Sources
• If you like to learn
more about trade
and/or other
subjects as part of
your professional
learning and
development then
feel free to review
my material on
https://www.udemy.
com/ (search Paul
Young CPA CGA