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Joint Risk Assessment in South America

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SARA project (South America Risk Assessment)

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Joint Risk Assessment in South America

  1. 1. Joint Risk Assessment in South America Catalina Yepes Estrada GEM Foundation, Pavia -Italy
  2. 2. The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project South America Regional program • 13 countries • Total population > 402 Million • Developing countries – Big cities – Informal construction
  3. 3. The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project South America Regional program Magnitude Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue (GCMT) 1976 -2014 • 13 countries • Total population ~ 402 Million • Developing countries – Big cities – Informal construction
  4. 4. Population in 2012 ~ 191 million •Colombia 47’704.427 (25%) •Argentina 40’117.096 (21%) •Peru 29’987.800 (16%) •Venezuela 29’954.782 (16%) •Chile 17’464.814 (9%) •Ecuador 15’492.264 (8%) •Bolivia 10’496.285 (5%) The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project South America Regional program
  5. 5. Workshop in Medellin (Colombia) Special focus on exposure and vulnerability – Training on the Inventory Data Capture tools – Introduction to the GEM taxonomy – Derivation of Exposure Models
  6. 6. An initial attempt for a unified South American risk model hazard map –475 years Loss map –475 years
  7. 7. Colombia, a regional study for Antioquia (Univ. of EAFIT) • The second largest city (after Bogota) • >13% of the population of the country • The Metropolitan area has around 3.5 million of inhabitants (~60%) • The region is divided in: – 9 sub-regions – 125 municipalities EXPOSURE • Number of stories • Socio-economical strata • Virtual visual inspection (when needed)
  8. 8. Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia Medellin (Zone 1) Medellin (Zone 2) Medellin (Zone 3) Medellin (outskirts) Sonson(South-East) Caucasia (Bajocauca-North) Cisneros (North-East) Yondo(Magdalena medio-East) Apartado(Uraba, North–East)
  9. 9. Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia
  10. 10. Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia
  11. 11. • Chile has a population around 17 million Around 40% of the population is concentrated in Santiago • Detail exposure models for: – Iquique – Talca – Osorno A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN) EXPOSURE • Census • Data from the Chamber of Construction • Visual inspection in the selected cities • Virtual visual inspection in other regions
  12. 12. A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities Built area (m2) between 2002 a 2011 Reinforced concrete < 1972 Reinforced concrete 21-30 storeys, < 1972 Reinforced concrete 4-9 storeys, < 1972 Wood, 1 storey Confined masonry 3-5 storeys Confined masonry 1 storey + a 2nd light storey Confined masonry 1 storey Reinforced masonry 1 storey Reinforced masonry 3-5 storeys Adobe 1 storey Adobe 2storeys
  13. 13. Data collection after Iquique earthquake (April, 2014)
  14. 14. A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN)
  15. 15. Ecuador, a city scenario for Quito Universidad San Francisco de Quito + Quito Municipality What is the plan? • Create exposure model for the city • Developing of new fragility functions • Use microzonation study for hazard • Damage scenarios and risk (using OQ- engine) • Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal • Communication strategy Quito and the Metropolitan Area have around 2.5 million inhabitants (~20%)
  16. 16. Peru, a city scenario for Lima (CISMID) What is the plan? • Create a detailed exposure model for a significant area in the region • Create the exposure model for the metropolitan area • Develop fragility and vulnerability functions • Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine Lima and the Metropolitan Area have around 8.7 million inhabitants (~30%)
  17. 17. Country level model for Venezuela What is the plan? • Description of building typologies • Create exposure model at municipality level • Review of existing vulnerability models • Develop fragility and vulnerability functions • Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine • Socio-economic indicators and social risk • Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal
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  20. 20. Except where otherwise noted, thiswork is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org

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