Humans have always shared. More recently, enabled by technology, new forms of sharing and access have begun to transform industries as well as the way we live our lives, creating financial return and social reward for participants. From AirBnB (爱彼迎 ) to Uber and Didi Chuxing, the sharing economy has rapidly moved from niche to mainstream in a number of categories, most notably accommodation and transportation. But where next? Building on insights from the wider Future Agenda programme with recent research and interviews with a number of industry leaders and experts, we’re delighted to share an emerging view of the Future of the Sharing Economy. Over the next few weeks we are asking for feedback and opinion from around the world. We’d really welcome your perspective, comments, challenge and additional insights to co-create an enriched informed future view for all. We will then update and share. As with all Future Agenda output, this is being published under creative commons (share alike non commercial) so you are free to share and quote as suits.

1.
Future
of
the
Sharing
Economy
An
Emerging
View
30
March
2017
The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program

2.
Context
–
The
Sharing
Economy
Humans
have
always
shared.
More
recently,
enabled
by
technology,
new
forms
of
sharing
and
access
have
begun
to
transform
industries
as
well
as
the
way
we
live
our
lives,
creaEng
financial
return
and
social
reward
for
parEcipants.

3.
Asking
for
Feedback
This
document
brings
together
a
number
of
exisEng
insights
on
how
the
sharing
economy
is
evolving
across
varied
arenas.
To
build
a
richer
view
for
all,
we
are
inviEng
feedback
and
comments
on
what
is
here
and
what
is
missing.

4.
Thema<c
Shi=s
Building
on
insights
from
Future
Agenda
discussions
and
addiEonal
dialogue,
we
have
idenEfied
three
inter-­‐related
themes
around
which
future
change
will
impact
the
sharing
economy.
Crossing
the
chasm
Access
not
ownership
Data
interpretaEon
IoT
and
Blockchain
power
Deeper
collaboraEon
Crowd
Powered
FricEonless
TransacEons
Individual
Control
Human
Touch
PlaPorm
DisintermediaEon
Enabling
regulaEon
Distributed
trust
Fairer
sharing
Quality
markets
Augmented
reputaEon

5.
Access
to
Value
New
ways
to
access
greater
value
emerge.
Technology
unlocks
new
value,
increases
uElisaEon
and
reduces
cost
of
access.
As
access
improves,
so
the
sharing
market
broadens
and
deepens.
Crossing
the
chasm
Access
not
ownership
Data
interpretaEon
IoT
and
Blockchain
power
Deeper
collaboraEon

6.
Crossing
the
Chasm
Timely
access
to
informaEon
and
beSer
transparency
on
markets
enable
more
to
parEcipate
in
peer-­‐to-­‐peer
marketplaces.
Mass
market
penetraEon
is
supported
by
a
wider
ecosystem
of
enabling
ancillary
services.

7.
Future
Shi=
More
sharing
plaPorms
conEnue
to
proliferate,
growing
and
segmenEng
the
market
with
new
innovaEon.
Winners
emerge
to
dominate,
consolidate
and
broaden
their
service
offer.
Incumbents
respond.
Today
TradiEonal
economy
dominant
with
c.50%
of
consumers
aware
of
sharing.
Up
to
a
1/3
of
adults
have
parEcipated
in
sharing.
Sharing
economy
dominated
by
5
major
areas:
accommodaEon,
transport,
on-­‐demand
household
services,
on-­‐
demand
professional
services
and
collaboraEve
finance.
2022
Sharing
penetrates
the
mass
market.
Major
sharing
plaPorms
grow
to
equal
their
tradiEonal
market
equivalents.
Sharing
spreads
into
new
sectors
including
insurance,
uEliEes,
health
and
social
care.
More
incumbents
respond
incorporaEng
lessons
into
their
own
businesses
as
well
as
purchasing,
invesEng
in,
partnering
with
and
creaEng
new
ventures.

8.
Access
Not
Ownership
Rising
sustainability
imperaEves
and
increasing
cost
of
ownership
shi_
the
balance
from
ownership
to
access
and
we
prefer
to
rent
than
buy.

9.
Future
Shi=
Increasing
depth
and
breadth
of
sharing
plaPorm
product
and
service
provision
reduces
barriers
to
adopEon
and
usage.
Today
Consumerism,
ready
access
to
credit
and
distant
environmental
concerns
ensure
ownership
dominates
ion
many
sectors.
Transport
and
accommodaEon
access
is
building
in
some
largely
urban
market.
Concerns
around
sharing
plaPorm
trust
and
quality
limit
uptake.
2022
Car
ownership
in
major
urban
centres
begins
to
decline
as
we
hit
peak
car.
Increased
sharing
plaPorm
liquidity
together
with
improvements
in
trust
and
quality
encourage
many
more
to
access
rather
than
own
products
across
a
broadening
porPolio.

10.
Data
Interpreta<on
Escala<on
AI
and
quantum
compuEng
increase
our
ability
to
combine
informaEon,
construct
models
to
make
beSer
use
of
data.
This
results
in
a
step
change
in
data
interpretaEon,
reducing
cost,
increasing
uElisaEon
and
providing
many
new
opportuniEes

11.
Future
Shi=
An
emergent
fronEer
with
abundance
of
data
but
liSle
knowledge
on
how
to
exploit
it
gives
way
to
a
more
mature
and
digiEsed
environment
where
real-­‐Eme
analyEcs,
pervasive
connecEvity
and
skilled
data
interpretaEon
are
the
norm.
Today
Much
data
interpretaEon
is
improving
across
the
consumer
and
business
arenas.
However
people
and
organisaEons
don’t
always
know
how
to
create
value
from
their
data.
DisrupEve
technologies
and
business
models
seek
to
exploit
opportuniEes
but
decisions
are
sEll
largely
made
on
judgements.
2022
Data
and
access
to
it
grows
exponenEally
as
digital
pervades
and
data
marketplaces
emerge.
Individuals
retain
more
ownership
of
their
data
and
opt
to
share
it.
We
become
more
digitally
capable
and
disciplined
in
creaEng
value
from
data.
Real-­‐Eme
analyEcs
and
data
interpretaEon
become
the
affordable
norm.

12.
IoT
and
Blockchain
Powered
Sharing
As
more
objects
and
people
become
interconnected,
so
the
opportunity
to
share
and
benefit
from
access
increases.
Blockchain
technologies
liberate
sharing
from
plaPorms.

13.
Future
Shi=
As
the
IoT
develops,
it
will
further
automate
the
exposing
of
idle
capacity
while
also
making
the
facilitaEon
of
booking
and
sharing
simpler.
Today
The
majority
of
Internet
enabled
sharing
takes
place
via
centralised
plaPorms.
The
potenEal
for
every
device
to
have
a
connecEon
is
recognised
but
is
not
yet
at
scale.
Human
users
acEvely
parEcipaEng
to
provide
and
manage
supply
and
demand.
2022
1
trillion
connected
things
drive
significantly
beSer
resource
use
and
add
even
more
connecEvity.
The
emergence
of
passive
sharing,
in
which
objects
manage
their
own
presence
(e.g.
updaEng
their
own
booking
calendar)
with
their
owners
permission.
Blockchain
enabled
sharing
enables
more
value
creaEon.

14.
Deeper
Collabora<on
and
Real
Sharing
Partnerships
shi_
to
become
more
dynamic,
long-­‐term,
democraEsed,
mulE-­‐party
collaboraEons.
CompeEtor
alliances
and
wider
public
parEcipaEon
drive
regulators
to
create
new
legal
frameworks
for
open,
empatheEc
collaboraEon.

15.
Future
Shi=
Going
forward,
addressing
the
big
problems
are
seen
to
require
completely
different
ways
of
thinking
and
cooperaEng
and
deeper,
wider,
more
meaningful
collaboraEon
is,
for
many,
an
important
part
of
the
puzzle.
Today
The
residual
approach
to
intellectual
property
creaEon,
ownership
and
trading
is
more
of
a
barrier
to
collaboraEon
than
an
enabler.
But
collaboraEon
in
innovaEon
is
increasingly
becoming
more
public
and
shi_ing
from
bilateral
partnerships
to
more
grand
challenges
such
as
X-­‐prizes
that
engage
a
wider
community.
2022
CollaboraEon
in
innovaEon
is
increasingly
open
as
mulEple
authors
are
recognised
and
shared
informaEon
is
no
longer
owned
by
any
individual.
A
real
sharing
economy
emerges
as
increasing
collaboraEon
drives
organisaEons
to
reconfigure
based
on
social
networks
and
impact.
Real
sharing
enterprises,
not
driven
solely
by
profits,
seek
to
share
resources,
knowledge,
and
decision-­‐
making
responsibiliEes.

16.
Improved
Trust
and
Transparency
Trust
remains
the
criEcal
enabler
of
the
sharing
economy.
Alongside
building
plaPorm
trust,
distributed,
regulatory
as
well
as
social
trust
all
grow.
Enabling
regulaEon
Distributed
trust
Fairer
sharing
Quality
markets
Augmented
reputaEon

17.
Enabling
Regula<on
and
Governance
As
society
adjusts
to
new
models
of
commerce,
regulaEon
on
sharing
moves
from
a
reacEve
to
proacEve
stance
-­‐
beSer
protecEng
consumers,
providers
and
plaPorms
alike.
PlaPorms
also
choose
to
lead
and
self-­‐regulate.

18.
Future
Shi=
Regulators
put
in
place
new
or
augmented
legislaEon
and
standards
that
are
beSer
designed
to
create
value
for
a
world
in
which
network
based
sharing
is
common.
Today
Regulators
lag
the
disruptors,
principally
seeking
to
check
that
they
fit
and
operate
within
exisEng
legislaEon.
Incumbents
and
unions
are
highly
acEve
in
lobbying
and
seeking
to
protect
the
status
quo.
2022
RegulaEon
is
put
in
place
to
embrace
the
sharing
economy.
Provider
worker
rights
in
the
sharing
economy
are
secured,
giving
them
not
only
a
social
safety
net
but
also
a
share
in
the
value
they
create.

19.
Distributed
Trust
(source:
RachelBotsman.com)
Trustworthiness
of
individuals
to
share
moves
from
pure
insEtuEonal
plaPorm-­‐based
mechanisms
to
be
augmented
by
more
distributed
approaches
that
are
more
transparent,
inclusive,
decentralised,
accountable
and
boSom-­‐up.

20.
Future
Shi=
Distributed
trust
mechanisms
and
networks
emerge,
enabled
by
more
pervasive
technology
and
wider
recogniEon.
Greater
control
within
the
network
builds
confidence.
Today
Consumer
trust
in
sharing
driven
by
plaPorms
own
acEvity
(e.g.
security,
regulaEon,
team,
delivery
partners)
and
brand
reputaEon
is
augmented
by
consumer
peer
reviews.
PlaPorms
provide
insurance
and
re-­‐
assurance
for
users.
Virtually
zero
carriage
of
trust
between
networks
(e.g.
eBay
raEngs
do
not
count
on
AirBnB
/
Uber).
2022
ExisEng
centralised
trust
mechanisms
are
augmented
with
more
portable
consumer
and
network
based
(e.g.
blockchain)
soluEons.
Consumer
access
to
and
control
of
their
own
data
and
its
ability
to
be
shared
with
mulEple
parEes
together
with
the
emergence
of
trusted
data
and
reputaEon
agents
all
contribute.

21.
Fairer
Sharing
To
miEgate
against
actual
or
perceived
abuse
of
power,
sharing
plaPorms
are
challenged
to
beSer
represent
the
needs
of
all
their
stakeholders
and
be
part
of
society.
Those
who
succeed
in
doing
so
build
greater
legiEmacy
and
trust.

22.
Future
Shi=
PlaPorm
operators
acEvely
seek
to
promote
fairer
sharing
for
the
wider
benefit
of
society
rather
than
for
a
select
few.
AuthenEc,
credible
impact
is
pivotal.
Today
Sharing
economy
is
perceived
by
some
as
circumnavigaEng
regulaEon
and
abusing
market
power,
especially
workers
rights.
Value
is
viewed
as
accruing
to
the
few
rather
than
the
many.
The
blurring
of
consumers
and
producers
to
‘prosumers’
-­‐
who
do
both
-­‐
is
a
complicaEon
for
regulators.
2022
Fairer,
more
equitable
and
more
‘human’
sharing
for
all
stakeholders
emerges.
Values
driven,
authenEc
and
fair
for
both
providers
and
consumers.
Major
plaPorms
make
efforts
to
increase
responsibility
and
produce
socially
beneficial
outcomes
–
being
part
of
society
rather
than
apart
from
it.

23.
Quality
Markets
As
new
plaPorms
proliferate
and
wider
market
consolidaEon
gets
underway,
the
winners
are
defined
by
the
quality
of
product,
service
and
communicaEons.
Global
and
regional
plaPorms
vie
to
demonstrate
impact
and
trust.

24.
Future
Shi=
A
period
of
proliferaEon
is
followed
by
consolidaEon
with
standards
of
service
a
pre-­‐requisite
for
sustained
progress.
This
leaves
relaEvely
few
dominant
plaPorms
in
all
markets
and
geographies.
Today
Sharing
players
proliferate
to
fill
new
niches
and
emerging
markets.
PlaPorms
fight
for
liquidity
and
volume
to
saEsfy
both
users
and
investors
as
well
as
to
gain
market
dominance.
Performance
track
records
emerge.
Some
plaPorms
fail
and
close.
2022
By
2022,
the
winners
in
most
markets
and
regions
will
have
emerged.
The
are
defined
by
quality
and
service
provision
–
as
laid
bare
by
performance
track
records
and
consumer
reviews.
Laggards
close
or
are
merged
to
create
dominant
plaPorms.

25.
Augmented
Reputa<on
In
order
to
validate
the
quality
and
impact
of
plaPorms,
new
trusted
currencies
of
reputaEon,
exchange
and
meaning
emerge
to
facilitate
transacEons,
trade,
authenEcaEon
and
validaEon.

26.
Future
Shi=
We
move
from
a
human
driven
network
of
raEngs
to
one
where
technology
plays
a
greater
role
–
recording,
tracking
and
sharing
independent
accurate
performance
insights
that
complement
personal
feedback.
Today
Trust
and
reputaEon
provided
by
effecEve
but
relaEvely
linear
and
shallow
proxies
(e.g.
user
reviews,
providers
own
due
diligence
with
liSle
plaPorm
verificaEon
or
validaEon).
There
is
liSle
independent
verificaEon
and
validaEon
of
quality
of
service
beyond
personal
raEngs.
2022
ReputaEon
arises
from
from
mulEple
sources
to
build
deeper
levels
of
trust.
e.g.
sensors
that
capture
events
in
real
Eme
give
an
extra
level
of
performance
review,
helping
ensure
owners’
objects
are
being
looked
a_er.
New
social
currencies
(e.g.
collaboraEon
Eme)
build
reputaEon
and
social
status.

27.
Enhanced
Experience
Powered
by
technology
and
the
crowd,
services
become
beSer,
easier
to
use,
more
efficient
and
seek
to
put
the
user
in
control.
Leaders
broaden
their
service
offer.
Crowd
Powered
FricEonless
TransacEons
Individual
Control
Human
Touch
PlaPorm
DisintermediaEon

28.
Crowd
Powered
Crowd
feedback
enables
rapid
service
improvement
while
crowd
parEcipaEon
opens
up
enErely
new
service
offers
and
improves
engagement.
Leaders
seek
to
engage
to
create,
develop,
secure
and
maintain
legiEmacy.

29.
Future
Shi=
Deeper,
community
based
learning
cultures
and
the
ability
to
deploy
crowd
knowledge
quickly
into
live
environments
help
to
separate
the
plaPorm
winners
from
the
losers.
Today
PlaPorms
vary
in
their
embrace
of
the
crowd.
While
most
use
crowd
reviews
and
welcome
wide
community
feedback,
only
some
acEvely
seek
to
culEvate
members
as
acEve
parEcipants
in
their
own
business
development.
2022
The
crowd
becomes
central
to
service
evoluEon
and
as
a
result
become
more
engaged.
As
co-­‐creators
more
openly
collaborate,
mulEple
stories
emerge
from
the
everyday
fuelling
further
growth.
OrganisaEons
build
deep
learning
cultures
and
operaEonal
capability
to
apply
learning
quickly.

30.
Fric<onless
Transac<ons
Reducing
fricEon
at
every
stage
of
the
transacEon
enhances
customer
experience
and
removes
pain
points.
PlaPorm
liquidity,
inventory
management
as
well
as
transacEon
execuEon
are
all
powered
by
smarter
use
of
data
and
AI.

31.
Future
Shi=
As
transacEonal
fricEon
reduces,
organisaEons
become
increasingly
aware
of
the
benefits
to
be
gained
from
good
fricEon
–
curated
interacEons
that
add
value
and
enhance
the
users’
experience.
Today
OrganisaEons
focus
on
improving
process
flows
to
maximise
conversion
using
ex-­‐post
data
and
standard
analysis.
Decreasing
ficEon
is
an
increasingly
common
objecEve
across
many
sectors
but
o_en
one
that
is
not
executed
well
and
so
becomes
more
visible
at
pivotal
stages.
2022
OrganisaEons
focus
on
using
data
to
inform
process
change
and
decisioning,
o_en
in
real
Eme
and
using
AI
where
useful.
Seamless
payments
distance
consumers
from
understanding
monetary
value.
Brands
reconsider
the
way
they
connect
to
customers
providing
more
holisEc
and
emoEonal
value.

32.
Individual
Control
New
disrupEve
providers
seek
to
put
the
individual
in
control
of
their
personal
data,
dis-­‐intermediaEng
data-­‐intensive
businesses.
Power
over
data
shi_s
from
the
organisaEon
to
the
individual.

33.
Future
Shi=
Cross
industry
digital
idenEty
stores
increasingly
allow
consumer
to
control
and
manage
their
data
use,
supporEng
wider
acceptance
of
data
sharing
across
more
plaPorms.
Today
Individual
control
of
informaEon
is
perceived
but
not
effecEve.
Major
social
plaPorms
and
established
insEtuEons
control
ever
more
data
and
seek
to
gain
value.
The
need
for
personal
access
control
is
discussed
but
not
acted
upon
at
scale.
2022
Personal
data
stores
and
privacy
agents
are
increasingly
accepted
and
commonplace.
Pervasive
and
trusted
automated
authenEcaEon
allows
for
more
informed
consent.
Personal
informaEon
manager
apps
qualify
and
quanEfy
data
sharing
and
allocate
value.

34.
Human
Touch
As
service
provision
and
consumpEon
becomes
ever
more
digital,
automated
and
algorithmic,
those
brands
that
can
offer
more
emoEonal
engagement
and
human-­‐to-­‐human
contact
become
increasingly
aSracEve.

35.
Future
Shi=
Humans
possess
an
innate,
self-­‐correcEon
mechanism
that
is
sEll
difficult
to
replicate
in
machines.
As
automaEon
and
AI
have
ever
greater
impact
and
we
move
to
the
singularity,
the
role
of
people
at
key
points
in
the
process
is
prized.
Today
In
a
push
to
reduce
cost
and
provide
more
value
to
users,
services
become
ever
more
digital,
automated
and
algorithmic.
This
drives
transacEonal
efficiency
and
accelerates
growth
but
the
leaders
in
automaEon,
make
it
extremely
difficult,
if
not
impossible,
for
customers
to
meet
or
speak
to
an
employee.
2022
As
digital
efficiency
commodiEses,
real
differenEaEon
occurs
with
select
human
intervenEon
and
touches.
This
reassures
users
and
creates
significant
brand
differenEaEon.
Within
the
experience,
human
touch
increasingly
provides
and
enhances
the
moments
that
maSer
in
brand
experiences.

36.
PlaNorm
Disintermedia<on
Enabled
by
network-­‐based
soluEons
(e.g.
blockchain),
providers
and
buyers
by-­‐pass
centralised
sharing
plaPorms
to
go
direct
-­‐
taking
back
control,
value
and
equity.

37.
Future
Shi=
The
possibility
of
more
network
based
sharing
emerges
to
gradually
challenge
plaPorm
supremacy,
returning
more
value
and
control
to
users.
Today
The
sharing
economy
is
largely
dominated
by
centralised
plaPorms
that
provide
trusted
marketplaces
for
exchange
and
enforce
standards
(e.g.
Uber
–
the
vehicle,
driver,
insurance,
legal
etc.).
Many
of
these
centralised
plaPorms
extract
most
of
the
value.
2022
Enabled
by
new
technology
development,
some
transacEons
move
to
more
distributed
networks.
This
reduces
plaPorm
margins
and
returns
more
value
to
users.
A
baSle
for
efficiency
develops
between
plaPorms
and
would-­‐be
plaPorm
disintermediaries.

38.
Ques<ons
for
You
As
we
share
and
build
on
this
view
we
would
like
to
know
what
you
agree
with,
what
you
don’t,
what
is
missing
and,
most
importantly,
what
will
be
some
of
the
key
impacts
and
implicaEons
–
both
globally
and
regionally.

39.
More
InformaEon
and
Insights
www.futureagenda.org
hSp://tmiltd.com/products/future-­‐agenda
hSp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2

40.
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Agenda
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