This document discusses short-term improvements to wind farm production forecasts ranging from 0 to 60 minutes ahead. It recommends observing production changes using neighboring turbine data and LiDAR to detect wind conditions. Typical improvements from these methods include 2-5% over an hour and 5-10% over the first 20 minutes, with a 25% improvement for the worst ramp events. Using high frequency turbine level production data every 30 seconds instead of every 10 minutes and updating forecasts every 5-10 minutes can further increase accuracy by 8% over an hour and 13% over the first 20 minutes.

1. Further short-term improvements
Improve with Production Changes
• Observe and register production
changes
• ConWX STNS, Short Term Network
System uses information from
neighboring turbines to optimize
forecasts
• STNS improves intra-hour
forecasts for neighboring parks
• Variations depend on wind speeds
and atmospheric conditions
• Main strength is non-predicted
RAMP events and timing
Use LiDAR to detect more
• Use 1-2 LiDARs for your larger
scale wind park
• Use real-time measurements and
observations to further improve
your short-term forecasts (0 to
60 minutes ahead)
1. 2. 3.
Typical improvements:
• 2-5% over an hour
• 5-10% over the first 20 minutes
Typical improvements:
• 25% for top 8% worst events
Typical improvements:
• 8% over an hour
• 13% over the first 20 minutes
High-frequency production data
• Going from 10 minutes online
SCADA data to 30 seconds on
turbine level
• ConWX uses the high frequency
data and delivers forecast
updates every 5-10 minutes in
much higher accuracy
• Individual offshore farm
algorithms implementation
• Goes hand in hand with STNS