The document discusses the problem of global warming caused by increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. It explains that CO2 interferes with the Earth's natural cooling system by trapping infrared radiation, leading the planet to continue warming even if emissions levels stabilize. The only way to stop global warming is to cap CO2 levels by transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy technologies. The presentation provides examples of policy steps and individual actions that can help adopt clean energy solutions and halt the dangerous impacts of climate change.

1. Framing the Global
Warming Challenge:
A presentation for churches
Steven Howard Johnson
January 2012

2. What I Hope You’ll Remember
• CO2 is up 40% and rising rapidly
• CO2 affects Earth’s ability to cool itself
• Slower Emissions: NOT ENOUGH
• Real Solution: Clean Energy Portfolio
• Church can witness for clean energy

3. Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem

4. Fossil Fuels are VERY Popular
Buildings use Vehicles use
natural gas petroleum
Industry uses natural Electric utilities use coal and
gas, oil, and coal natural gas

5. Fossil Fuel Consumption in U.S.
• Coal: 1 Billion Tons Per Year
• Petroleum: 7.5 Billion Barrels/Year
• Natural Gas: 22 Trillion Cubic Feet Per Year
 Almost 6 Billion Tonnes Carbon Dioxide

6. Tonnes? Or Parts Per Million?
• On the ground, governments measure
carbon dioxide emissions in Billions of
Tonnes
• In the atmosphere, scientists measure
stocks of carbon dioxide in Parts Per
Million

7. For now, let’s use Tonnes, not PPM
• One millionth part CO2 in the
atmosphere weighs 7.77 billion tonnes
• So 280 PPM, the norm before the
Industrial Revolution, weighed 2,175
billion tonnes

8. CO2 Rough Rules of Thumb
• If global emissions = 30 billion tonnes/year
• Then:
– 8 billion tonnes are taken up by forests . . .
– 7 billion tonnes are absorbed by the ocean
– 15 billion tonnes stay in atmosphere (~2 PPM)

9. Total CO2 Now: 3,044 Billion Tonnes
(up 16.5 Billion Tonnes in 2011)
Atmospheric CO2
3,200
3,000 +40%
Billions of Tonnes
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200 (Pre-Industrial Norm)
2,000
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010

10. CO2 rise is accelerating
Annual Increase in Stock of CO2
(5 Year Averages)
New CO2, in Billions of Tonnes
18.0
16.2
16.0 14.8
14.4
14.0
12.4
11.8 11.3
12.0
9.2 9.7
10.0
8.1
8.0
6.0 4.5
4.0
2.0
0.0
1961 - 1966 - 1971 - 1976 - 1981 - 1986 - 1991 - 1996 - 2001 - 2006 -
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

11. Takeaway:
• Atmospheric stock of carbon dioxide is up
40% from its pre-industrial norm
• This total is now growing at 7% a decade
• There’s no going back

12. Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem

13. Emissions are accelerating
The stock of CO2 is growing
Why Do We Care?

14. The Earth takes in
loads of energy
from the sun . . .

15. Energy IN: 2.9 Million TWH/Day
ENERGY IN
Visible Light

16. Why doesn’t the Earth just get
hotter and hotter?

17. Maybe the Earth has
its own cooling
system?

18. Cars cool themselves using
radiators and water . . .

19. People cool themselves by
sweating . . .

20. Dogs cool themselves by panting .
..

21. How does the Earth cool
itself?

22. By radiating infrared energy
back into space . . .
(the Earth’s natural cooling system)

23. Energy OUT: 2.9 Million TWH/Day
ENERGY IN ENERGY OUT
Visible Light Infrared

24. Infrared cooling helps the
Earth maintain a stable
average temperature . . .

25. . . . unless . . .

26. . . . New CO2 reduces Energy OUT . . .
ENERGY IN ENERGY OUT
Visible Light Infrared

27. With ENERGY OUT shrinking . . .

28. . . . the Earth gets warmer

29. . . . the Earth gets warmer
• How much warmer?
+ 2.0 degrees Celsius per century
+ 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade
One eighteen-thousandth of a degree per
day

30. Retained infrared warms the Earth
ENERGY IN ENERGY OUT
WARMER
EARTH
Visible Light Infrared

31. . . . and because the Earth is
warmer, its daily production
of infrared goes up . . .

32. Warmer Earth = more Energy OUT
ENERGY IN ENERGY OUT
WARMER
EARTH
Visible Light Infrared

33. If the stock of CO2 were to
stabilize, the Earth’s
temperature would also
stabilize

34. However!
Since the stock of CO2 is still
growing, it will intercept
even more infrared . . .

35. And the Earth will continue
to warm

36. Takeaway:
• By boosting atmospheric CO2
we interfere with the Earth’s natural
cooling system . . .
• . . . and Global Warming continues

37. Interesting . . .

38. So what kind of problem is this?

39. Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem

40. If extreme danger begins at 4,000 . . .

41. . . . maybe we get there by 2070 . . .

42. . . . or maybe 2090. Does it matter?

43. In a slower emissions scenario . . .
• We burn the same amount of fossil fuel
• It just takes longer
• No matter when we reach the red zone, the
same amount of damage is in store

44. Capping CO2 is the only safe solution

45. TAKEAWAY:
Slower Emissions is NOT a
solution

46. Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem

47. First: Recognize the logic chain
Energy Technology  Fossil Fuel Consumption
Fossil Fuel Consumption  Carbon Dioxide Emissions
CO2 Emissions  Total Stock Atmospheric CO2
Total Stock Atmospheric CO2 Global Warming
Global Warming  Climate Change
Climate Change  Humanitarian Catastrophes

48. Climate change is different
• Rules of proportionality shape the first part
of the logic chain . . .
• But not climate change, which is triggered
when thresholds are reached
• Rules of proportionality cannot predict
total climate risk

49. Oceans and marine life also at risk
• As oceans absorb CO2 from the air, much of it
turns into carbonic acid
• This puts marine life at risk
– Greater acidity threatens reproduction
– Shellfish may lose access to calcium carbonate
• The greater the CO2 in the oceans, the greater
the threat to marine life

50. Now: Recognize the solution logic
To limit humanitarian tragedies, climate change must be halted.
For climate change to halt, global warming must be halted.
For global warming to halt, the stock of CO2 must be capped.
If CO2 is to be capped, CO2 emissions (FF) must be halted.
To halt CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption must be halted.
To halt fossil fuel consumption, clean energy must be adopted.

51. Takeaway:
• Global warming CAN be halted IF –
and only if – we commit ourselves
to a clean energy future

52. Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem

53. Clean Energy? How?

54. Here’s some good news
• America consumes 56 TWH/Day of energy
(terawatt-hours/day)
• America receives 50,000 TWH/Day of ambient
sunshine
• Capture only a thousandth and we can power
America’s economy

55. Here’s more good news . . .
• Clean energy will get cheaper and
cheaper over time

56. So What Do We Do?

57. Five Key Steps
1. Improve Energy Efficiency
2. Adopt Clean Source Technologies
3. Adopt Clean User Technologies
4. Develop Phase-Out Programs
5. Remember How We Got Here

58. 1. Improve Energy Efficiency
• Utilities will promote efficiency if rewarded
• Businesses are losing money by ignoring
efficiency
• Tighten auto mileage standards
• Great returns: $1 invested yields $3 in
savings

59. 2. Adopt Clean Source Technologies
• Clean Energy Electricity
• Clean Energy Liquid Fuel
• Clean Energy Heat

60. 3. Adopt Clean User Technologies
• Clean energy buildings (homes, offices,
stores)
• Clean energy vehicles
– autos, trucks, trains, planes, boats,
motorcycles . . .
• Clean energy industry

61. 4. Develop phase-out programs
• Not the fault of fossil fuel employees
that their fuels cause global warming
• Develop a forty year phase-out plan
• Provide transition assistance on many
fronts

62. 5. Remember how we got here
• We’ll dig ourselves out of this hole the
same way we dug ourselves in
– One consumer purchase at a time . . .
– One capital purchase at a time . . .

63. What Can the Church Say?

64. What the Church Can Say . . .
• Fossil Fuel Energy is Risky
–Climate Risks
–Humanitarian Risks
–Ocean Risks

65. What the Church Can Say . . .
• Only one atmosphere
• We are in this together
– As human communities across the
planet
– As nations
– As local communities
• We will solve this together
• Or we will fail together

66. What the Church Can Say . . .
• This is an worldwide energy
technology problem
• Likely to cause terrible damage
• “Emission reduction” isn’t enough
• Clean Energy Portfolios are essential
everywhere

67. What we can do . . .
. . . in our homes and churches
• Efficiency audits, efficiency
investments
• Buy the wind add-on from your utility
• Better home insulation
• Geothermal assist
• Solar panels

68. Remember the Solution:
Safer technologies  Safer future

69. What I Hope You’ll Remember
• CO2 is up 40% and rising rapidly
• CO2 affects Earth’s ability to cool itself
• Slower Emissions: NOT ENOUGH
• Real Solution: Clean Energy Portfolio
• Church can witness for clean energy

70. Thank You