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  1. 1. Shell Global Solutions The Future of Transportation Fuels Colin Chin 22nd November 2006, JakartaThe 1st Indonesia Fuel and Lubes Conference and Exhibition 2006
  2. 2. Content • Changes effecting fuel and vehicle technology • Latest in conventional fuels • Diesel • Gasoline • Emerging Fuels • Bio fuels • X-to-Liquid (GtL, BtL, CtL) • Hydrogen • Conclusions
  3. 3. Challenges of increased mobility • ‘Sustainable mobility’ - maintaining mobility while reducing local and global environmental impacts • Economic and social sustainability criteria also need to be met • Consumer acceptance a challenge. changes to automotive technology and fuels are required to meet sustainability challenges
  4. 4. Global Issues & EU Vehicle/Fuel responses 0.16 0.14 Environmental Technology 0.14 issue issue PM (g/km) 0.121992 Euro Acid rain Lower SOx 0.1 0.08 1 0.08 0.06 0.051996 Euro Acid Rain Lower SOx 0.04 0.025 2 0.022000 Euro Ozone NOx/HC 0 Pre Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 3 Euro 1 10000 5000 First Better Diesel Sulphur (ppm,w)2005 Euro Ozone NOx 2000 Oxycats Oxycats 4 Particles Lower PM 1000 500 Ce traps 350 Global warming CRT 100 50 Ba NOx2008/20 Euro Ozone/NOx NOx Particle traps09 5 Particle no. mass & no. 10 10 Global Warming2012/20 Euro Global Warming ? 113 6 ? Pre 1992 1996 2000 2005 2008/9 1992
  5. 5. In many developed markets, significant progress has already beenmade reducing local emissions. 140 Emissions, % of 1995 lev 120 CO CO2 100 NOx PM-diesel 80 VOC 60 Focus is shifting to Benzene … due to Greenhouse Gases 40 improvements in SO2 (GHG) conventional vehicles 20 and fuels CO2 (global warming) 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source : European Commission Future challenge: reduce CO2 while maintaining low regulated emissions
  6. 6. There is no single Future Fuels Solution • The next 20-30 years will see a wider range of vehicle technologies and fuel types, especially in developed markets % of New cars 100 LPG/CNG 90 80 Diesel (inc Bio-diesel/GTL) 70 60 a view of the future - 50 Hybrid not a forecast 40 Gasoline (inc Ethanol) 30 20 Naphtha/Methanol 10 Hydrogen 0 2000 2010 2020 conventional liquid fuels will continue to dominate for a long time to come
  7. 7. Improved Fuels enable more Efficient and lower Emissions EngineTechnologies Toyota, GM, Honda, DaimlerChrysler Subaru Fuel Cell Purchase/maintenance Vehicles Hybrid Diesel Engines Daimler/Chrysler, d r en VW/Audi, g yT Peugeot/Citroen HCCI Engine olo costs hn Hybrid T ec Gasoline Highly Optimized Engines Diesel Engines Diesel Engine Direct Injection Gasoline Gasoline Engine Engine Mitsubishi VW/Audi Thermodynamic Efficiency/Reduced Emissions
  8. 8. Shell Global Solutions Latest developments in Conventional Fuels 1. Diesel 2. Gasoline
  9. 9. More than 50 years of diesel fuel innovation Shell’s international experience in the area of fuel development and is well recognized as being of World Class standardShell & Audi made historybeing the first to win 24hrsLeMans race with a dieselcar powered by Shell V-Power Diesel.
  10. 10. Shell Diesel – Performance in a DI Diesel Deposits controlled Deposits built up Scanning electron micrographs of direct injection light duty fuel injector holes showing lower deposits with detergent fuel (applicable to modern light vehicles, taxis and passenger cars)
  11. 11. The effect of dirty fuel on injection equipment is clearly and quickly visible Comparison of DI injector cleanliness Clean fuel Dirty fuel
  12. 12. Shell Global Solutions Latest developments in Conventional Fuels 1. Diesel 2. Gasoline
  13. 13. Higher Octane for better efficiency • Octane quality is still the most important fuel property for gasoline engines. • Performance, economy and CO2 emissions would all benefit from higher octane quality for modern engines. • Most engine designers outside North America would like to see higher octane fuels, but with no increase in aromatics, olefins or use of alcohols. • There are substantial performance benefits in many vehicles from operating on high octane (98 RON or higher) fuels. • The most recent “Optimum Octane” studies show that the optimum has increased, and the refining energy and CO2 penalties from higher octane fuels are small (though the cost may be substantial).
  14. 14. Higher Octane to reduce vehicle CO emissions 40.00 98/86.9 • Higher RON gives more power and fuel 39.00 95.6/85.8 efficiency because of Average Power at the wheels, kW 98.2/94.7 38.00 better anti-knock 90.2/81.4 quality. 37.00 36.00 • 37 European and 35.00 91.1/89.7 Japanese SI cars tested so far. 34.00 33.00 • Future engines will 32.00 require high RON 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 gasoline. OI=2.1RON -1.1MON
  15. 15. Higher Octane protects EnginesDamage caused by insufficient OctaneDamage starts at edgeof piston furthest fromsparkplug High heat transfer to the piston can cause local melting and burning leading to catastrophic engine failure
  16. 16. Clean Engines for low Emissions and optimum Performance • Clean inlet valves allow better flow of air and fuel into the combustion chamber • This optimizes engine power Clean valve • Reduces fuel wastage • Improves fuel efficiency • Makes engines run smoother • Reduces emissions DIRTY valve
  17. 17. Shell Global Solutions New Fuels Bio-Diesel Ethanol Shell XTL
  18. 18. Overview of bio-components Sweet corn Rapeseed Sugar beet Food crops Soya wheat 1st generation Sunflower Et s ha t er no - es l io B Gasoline ol Bi Diesel h an o- d t ie o-e s el Ec advanced biofuels BTL Enzymatic hydrolysis Waste Conversion Eco-ethanol ®• Shell is the largest blender of 1st generation transport bio-fuels.• Commercial 2nd generation bio-fuels plants are under construction
  19. 19. Shell Global Solutions Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAMEs) or (Bio-diesel)
  20. 20. Common FAMEs RME (Europe) – rapeseed methyl ester •approx. 2 million diesel vehicles now use RME and RME blends •key producers: France (RME-5) & Italy, Germany & Austria (RME- 100)SME (USA)- soy methyl ester•use increasing sinceregistered with EPA•mostly SME-100 and SME-20 POME + CME (Far East) -palm oil / coconut methyl esters -trials and research underway for use of POME in Malaysia & Thailand and CME in Philippines
  21. 21. The Impact of FAMEs on vehicle performance negligible impact for 5% blends re-fuelling times & foaming similar to AGOfuel consumption less visible smokeincreases up to exhaust odour OK20% (up to 30%)with FAME-100 fuel additive compatibility – material compatibility – in increased deposits ? some older vehicles reduced acceleration & lower average speed for FAME-100
  22. 22. Shell Global Solutions Bio-ethanol (gasoline)
  23. 23. The Impact of Ethanol (EtOH) on vehicle performance negligible impact for 5% blendsfuel consumption No impact onIncreases 3% with emissions with10% EtOH 3-way catalyst fuel additive compatibility – material compatibility – in increased deposits ? some older vehicles Drivability concerns engine tuning with >20% required
  24. 24. Ethanol from non-food sources: IOGEN Simplified Process Enzyme production enzymes Standard bio-ethanol production stepsStraw Pre-treatment Hydrolysis Fermentation Distillation- hemi-cellulose Lignin C5+C6 sugars ethanol- cellulose- lignin Steam generation ethanol/gasoline blends www.bio-fuels.dk Use non-food biomass to produce ethanol for blending into conventional gasoline Iogen’s EcoEthanolTM facility in Ottawa, to reduce CO2 emissions Canada
  25. 25. Bio-Fuels are Reality • Shell has successfully implemented “Gasohol” in Thailand. • “Gasohol” is a blend made from 10% Ethanol and 90% gasoline • “Gasohol” has a tax advantage resulting in 7% lower retail price. • Current market share of “Gasohol” is about 50% of Thai ULG95 market
  26. 26. Shell Global SolutionsShell XtL X= Gas- X= Biomass- to Liquid X =Coal-
  27. 27. XTL – Synthetic fuel from gas, coal and biomass • Synthetic fuel refers to liquids from gas (GTL), coal (CTL) and biomass (BTL) • Products from gas, coal and biomass are identical • Flexible feedstock options (e.g. coal and biomass co-firing) GTL ShellNatural Gasification Gas Process BTL GasifierBiomass Syngas CTL Fischer-Tropsch process Identical Products Shell CoalCoal Gasification Process
  28. 28. Comparison of Energy Cycles 1 year 24 hours Plant growth thru Sustainable Source Biomass Carbo-V ® Process photosynthesis Energy Source The Sun Plant growth thru Formation of fossil Exploration of fossil Traditional fuels photosynthesis energy sources energy sources Gasoline / Diesel 400 million years Following nature‘s practice – but much faster!
  29. 29. Shell Global Solutions Gaseous Fuels CNG & LPG Hydrogen
  30. 30. CNG and LPG have been advocated as clean alternatives, butattractiveness reduces as gasoline & diesel quality improves • CNG • LPG • Low Sulphur => low PM, NOx & • Lower sulphur => PM, NOx and SOx SOx • Can substitute oil imports • Overall emissions similar to • Expensive infrastructure CNG • Bulky on-board storage • Infrastructure costs lower than CNG • Shell companies retail CNG in countries like Argentina, • Less bulky storage Pakistan. • Supplied by Shell in many • Longer term, GTL diesel offers markets for both fleet and same advantages at lower private motorist, infrastructure costs. • LPG fuel quality is better controlled than CNG. CNG & LPG have potential as a niche fuel where conventional fuel is a laggard in addressing urban pollution.
  31. 31. All options can meet E4 PM2.5 emission standards as existing E2 diesel taxi isbeing replaced progressively Clean as Gas Engines Diesel Engines become as Emission Benefits E2 vs. E4 Options 120.00% PM NOx 100.00% HC CO 80.00% Emissions 60.00% Euro IV PM Limit 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Diesel EU2 Diesel EU4 (no DPF) Diesel EU4 (DPF) CNG EU3 / 4 LPG EU4 Vehicle Options
  32. 32. Hydrogen • Shell is actively involved in hydrogen demonstration projects all around the world • Operates hydrogen filling stations in Europe, the US and Japan, with plans to build more in the US and China • However there are many challenges to be overcome before hydrogen can be commercially viable on a large scale • Cost and performance of fuel cells • Onboard hydrogen storage capacity • Improvements in sustainable hydrogen production • Consistency in regulations and standards • Financial costs of infrastructure • Social acceptance
  33. 33. Conclusions
  34. 34. Low Green House Gas emissions are the target for the futureNeed for a Well-to-Wheels approach • Systematic approach • Assessment of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissionsWell Well-to-Tank Wheel
  35. 35. Better G as G ol in 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 as e g CO2/mile ol in D ie ICE e se Fu l el IC N D C E ap ie el ht se l H ha lI C EV Fu E H Petroleum el C EV FT el D l HE ie se V FT lI N C ap CN E Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gases h G Li tha IC M qu E et id FC ha no H2 HE V G l Fu FC as H eo el C E us el V Natural Gas H l HE El ec 2 FC V tr ol H ys E- EV Et ha is H 85 no 2 IC lF FC E ue HE lC V el lH EV Electricity Renewable/HEV – hybrid electrical vehicleICE- internal combustion engine
  36. 36. WTW Analysis of RME –A Shell Global Solutions Study W2W CO2 emissions (g/km) from Ford Focus 1.8 - Fossil diesel and RME under different scenarios 250 200 CO2 g/km 150 100 50 0 Diesel Base Case RME base case RME base case + Land Conversion Importation fertiliser N2O Scenario Presented at World Bio-fuels Conference, Seville (April 2002)
  37. 37. Summary – Key Options for the future local emissions global emissions GTL bio-ethanol Clean Diesel short-to-mid term Bio-Diesel solutions LPG* (& BTL (20 years) CNG*) long-term solutions Hydrogen* (2020+) improvements in conventional fuels & vehicles* require non-conventional vehicle technology
  38. 38. Shell’s Approach • Quality cost-competitive conventional fuels • Global leader in differentiated fuels • Early leader in GTL • OEM and technology partnerships • Selling first generation bio-fuels today Le Mans car using GTL Fuel blend • Proactively developing advanced bio-fuels (including BTL) • Preparing for longer term fuels (Hydrogen) Ferrari F1 Partnership
  39. 39. Shell Global Solutions Thank You! email: colin.chin@shell.com
  40. 40. Combustion engines remain the dominant form of propulsion for the next20-30 years Hydrogen Hydrogen Hybrids 1% Hybrids 4% 24% 4% IC Engines 75% IC Engines New car registrations USA 2030 92% Source : ExxonMobil Energy Outlook New car registrations Europe 2020 Source : EUCAR