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![New RES Directive
EU electricity generation
installed capacity net change,
2000-2011 [MW], EWEA
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/forum2012duic-140101100346-phpapp02/75/Iskoristavanje-obnovljivih-izvora-energije-energetska-ucinkovitost-i-smanjenje-emisija-staklenickih-plinova-kao-pokretac-razvoja-zelene-ekonomije-u-Hrvatskoj-do-2050-31-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byNeven Duic
Iskorištavanje obnovljivih izvora energije, energetska učinkovitost i smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova kao pokretač razvoja “zelene ekonomije” u Hrvatskoj do 2050.
The document discusses the exploitation of renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as drivers for developing a 'green economy' in Croatia by 2050. It emphasizes the potential for significant job creation through increased energy efficiency and the integration of energy systems, aiming for up to 100% renewable energy, while recognizing challenges in electrifying transport sectors. Key points include achieving 80% reduction in GHG emissions and the interesting yet currently unviable idea of producing synthetic fuels through CO2 electrolysis.
Iskorištavanje obnovljivih izvora energije, energetska učinkovitost i smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova kao pokretač razvoja “zelene ekonomije” u Hrvatskoj do 2050.
- 1. Iskorištavanje obnovljivih izvoraenergije, energetska učinkovitost i smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova kao pokretač razvoja “zelene ekonomije” u Hrvatskoj do 2050. Goran Krajačić, Tomislav Pukšec, Boris Ćosić, Tomislav Novosel, Iva Ridjan, Neven Duić Sveučilište u Zagrebu - Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje Zagreb, Croatia 23.11. 2012, Forum DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 2. CO2 emissions –2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase? IEA Energy Technology Perspectives DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 3. Fully economically viablebut not being done? IEA Energy Technology Perspectives DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 4. Fossil fuel subsidies –10 times bigger than RES subsidies DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 5. Estimate of FossilFuel-related Subsidies Country Albania Energy related subsidies as % of GDP 7-8% Bosnia-Herzegovina 9-10% Croatia 5-6% Macedonia 8-9% Montenegro 10-11% Serbia 7-9% Kosovo 35-36% Aleksandar Kovacevic, UNDP: Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 6. Electricity price =average cost Fuel oil Demand Supply Import Gas Marginal cost Wholesale price Coal NE HE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT Base load
- 7. Electricity price =average cost Fuel oil Marginal cost Supply Demand Wholesale price Import Gas Coal NE HE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT Peak load
- 8. EU energy context Securityof energy supply • Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030 Employment and regional development policies • Deindustrialization and trade liberalization • “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our climate change commitments” Mitigation of global warming Environmental protection Sustainable development DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 9. Torwards 2050 80%lower GHG emissions by 2050 Decarbonising power RES 40%-100% + nuclear + CCS Buildings – nearly zero energy from 2018 Electrification of transport Roadmap 2050 RE-thinking 2050: 100% renewable DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 10. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY,POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 11. Decoupling is possible– Danish case DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 12. Energy efficiency Buildings nearly zero energy from 2018 Reconstruction rate 1-3% per year Transport CO2 emission regulation Electrification of personal cars Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo, shipping and aviation Modal shift Industry, appliances, lighting - BAT DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 13. Buildings – energyfor heating Izuzetni potencijal za energetske uštede u narednom periodu! Novogradnja strogo pridržavanje postojećih i svih budućih propisa (nakon 2020 prijelaz na skoro pa energetski neutralnu gradnju) Korisna energija - referentni scenarij Korisna energija bez skoro pa energetski neutralnih zgrada 50 48 46 J P 44 42 40 38 36 34 Zadovoljiti lokalno OiE (scenarij 20% porasta specifičnog životnog prostora) DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT Year
- 14. Buildings – energyfor heating Korisna energija s 3% godišnje obnove Korisna energija s 1% godišnje obnove 50 48 46 J P 44 42 40 38 36 34 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT Korisna energija s 2% godišnje obnove
- 15. Buildings – energydemand DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 16. Buildings – fuelmix (heat pumps scenario) Tekuća goriva Ugljen Biomasa Solarna PTV Područno grijanje 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT Prirodni plin Električna energija
- 17. Transport – fueldemand DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 18. Transport – fuelmix DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 19. Final demand Decoupling ispossible – Danish case DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 20. Energy supply Buildings District heating, heat pumps, solar thermal, PV, biomass, grid as storage Transport Electrification of personal cars Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo, shipping and aviation Industry Electricity, biomass and waste, synthetic fuels DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 21. Energy supply Powersupply Wind, PV, hydro, biomass and waste Storage Heat storage - integration of heat and power systems Electric vehicles and other flexible demand Synthetic fuels (?) Pumped hydro storage DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 22. Electricity demand 2050(TWh) DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 23. Electricity capacity (MW) TE+ CHP plin Male hidroelektrane Akumulacijske hidroelektrane Geotermalne elektrane Vjetroelektrane TE Ugljen Protočne hidroelektrane Reverzibilne hidroelektrane CHP otpad, biomasa i bioplin Solarne fotonaponske elektrane 35000 30000 25000 W M 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2020 2030 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT 2040 2050
- 24. Electricity fuel mix2050 (TWh) DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 25. Primary energy supply2010-2050 (TWh) DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 26. Yearly cost ofenergy sector M€ 8000 7000 6000 5000 Godišnji investicijski trošak 4000 Fiksni trošak 3000 Varijabilni trošak 2000 1000 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 27. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY,POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 28. Jobs in energygeneration sector Izgradnja postrojenja i proizvodnja opreme Vođenje, održavanje i proizvodnja goriva 500000 250000 450000 191810 400000 200000 350000 i z m e u j n d v i o r p a 300000 150000 125134 200000 100000 50000 31031 50000 a n t k e r i D ) / v č k ( e t s o p u j n d a r g z i 100000 58493 ž i đ v z b o p t s e j m n d a r m a n d u t s e j 150000 g u d v z i m / a n e j r t s o p id j i r t s u 250000 0 0 2020 2030 2040 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT 2050
- 29. Jobs in residentialconstruction sector Tri razine generiranih radnim mjesta: •Direktno generirana u ind. građevinskog materijala •Indirektno generirana u sektorima prateće industrije •Radna mjesta inducirana rastom spomenutih industrija u neindustrijskim sektorima DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 30. New RES Directive DEPARTMENTOF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 31. New RES Directive EUelectricity generation installed capacity net change, 2000-2011 [MW], EWEA DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 32. Electricity price =marginal cost Fuel oil Demand Supply Marginal cost Import Gas Coal NE HE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT Base load
- 33. Electricity price =marginal cost Fuel oil Demand Supply Imports Gas Coal Marginal cost Wind NE HE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT Base load – windy night
- 34. Coal + wind DEPARTMENTOF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 35. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY,POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 36. Wind: Coal vs.gas? DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 37. PV revolution MW DEPARTMENT OFENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 38. Wind: Coal vs.gas? DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 39. Zaključci Povećanje energetskeefikasnosti nije samo kreativno knjigovodstvo, nego stvarno dolazi kroz propise o efikasnosti vozila i zgrada, te uređaja, te je potencijal za veliki broj radnih mjesta Integracijom električnog, toplinskog i transportnog energetskog sustava, uz skladištenje energije moguće je doći blizu 100% obnovljivom energetskom sustavu u HR do 2050 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 40. Zaključci Ostaje problemcestovnog teretnog, brodskog i avionskog transporta koji ne mogu biti elektrificirani Proizvodnja sintetskih goriva elektrolizom CO2 je trenutno najzanimljivija ideja u znanosti – nije još spremna za primjenu Bez sintetskih goriva možemo doći do 80% obnovljivih energetskih sustava što je bio zadatak na početku …. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
- 41. THANK YOU FORYOUR ATTENTION!!! Hvala na pažnji! Neven.Duic@fsb.hr DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT