FORMAT Final Conference - brief

FORMAT
Final Conference
FORMAT project team and guest speakers
Politecnico di Milano, May 14-15, 2015

FORMAT Final conference
Agenda
2©FORMAT CONSORTIUM ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
FORMAT FINAL CONFERENCE
MAY, 14-15 2015
FORMAT Final Conference
14-15 May 2015
Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Meccanica
DAY 1 (Thursday, 14th May 2015)
Welcoming Session and Introduction
13:00 - 14:00 Arrival and Registration
14:00 - 14.15 Official Welcome
and
Conference Overview
Gaetano Cascini
(Project Coordinator)
Politecnico di Milano
Invited Speakers Session
14:15 – 15:00 Invited Speaker 1
The Use of Multi-
Generation Diffusion
Models in Technology
Forecasting
Mohsen Hamoudia President
of the International Institute of
Forecasters

Agenda
MAY, 14-15 2015
Invited Speakers Session
15:00 – 15:45 Invited Speaker 2
The Science of Data-Driven
Prediction
Ralph Grothman Siemens Corporate
Technology
15:45 – 16:00 Coffee break
FORMAT Project in Practice
16:00 – 16:30 Introduction to the
FORMAT Methodology
What? FORMAT TF Approach
How? Methodology & Stages
Software & Tools
Management approach
Where to find info?
Website, Handbook & Newsletter
Gaetano Cascini
16:30 – 17:00 Case Studies at Whirlpool
Vacuum Forming
Pre-Coated Steel sheets
Decoration
Pierluigi Petrali
Operation Center of Excellence,
Whirlpool Europe S.r.l.

Agenda
MAY, 14-15 2015
FORMAT Project in Practice
17:00 – 17:30 External Case Study
in an Italian SME
Application of FORMAT in
Car Interiors Design
Sandro Feltrin
RIC S.r.l.
17:30 – 18:00 Open Q&A Session
18:00 Closure of Day 1
DAY 2 (Friday, 15th May
2015)
FORMAT Transfer of Knowledge
9:00 – 9:45 Technology Forecasting
for Industrial Processes
Dmitry Kucharavy
9:45 – 10:00 FORMAT Methodology
in Depth
Gaetano Cascini
10:00 – 10:15 Stage FOR:
Defining Forecast Questions &
Planning the Project
Igor Kaikov
Whirlpool Europe Srl
10:15 – 10:45 Stage M:
Modelling Existing Knowledge
& Extracting Limiting Resources
Mateusz Slupinski
Wroclaw University of Technology

Agenda
MAY, 14-15 2015
FORMAT Transfer of Knowledge
10:45 – 11:15 Coffee break
11:15 – 11:45 Stage A:
Act to Identify Future Traits of the
System to be Forecasted
Niccolò Becattini
Christopher Nikulin
11:45 – 12:05 Stage T:
Transferring Conclusions to Decision
Makers
Dmitry Kucharavy
12:05 – 12:30 Text Mining on patents Emanuele Festa
Massimo Tarantelli
Innovation Engineering Srl
12:30 – 12:45 FORMAT Methodology
Recap
Gaetano Cascini
12:45 – 13:00 Q&A Session
13.00 – 14.00 Lunch Break
Case Studies in detail
14:00 – 14:30 Case Study 1:
Decoration Technologies
Mateusz Slupinski
14:30 – 15:10 Case Study 2:
Pre-coated Steel Sheets
Niccolò Becattini

Agenda
MAY, 14-15 2015
Case Studies in detail
15:10 – 15:50 Case Study 3:
Post-industrial future of Konin
(Poland)
Mateusz Slupinski
15:50 – 16:20 Case Study 4:
A vehicle for everyday use in 2030
Sebastian Koziolek
16:20 – 17:00 Q&A Session & Final Discussion
17:00 Closure of Day 2

Welcome
and
Conference Overview
G. Cascini (Politecnico di Milano)

FORMAT project
8
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Academia Industry

Keynote #1
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
9
MAY, 14-15 2015
The Use of Multi-Generation
Diffusion Models in
Technology Forecasting
FORMAT Conference
Milan - Italy | 14-15 May 2015
Mohsen Hamoudia
International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and
Orange - France Telecom Group, Paris
mohsen.hamoudia@orange.com

Keynote #1
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
10
MAY, 14-15 2015
An example of Industry Multi-Generation
Different mobile generations and different markets situations
World
0
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2G
3G
4G China
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Japan
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Q42012
2G
3G
4G
USA
Sample slide, for more go to: http://handbook.format-project.eu section ‘Downloads’

The Science of
Data-Driven Predictions
Siemens Corporate Technology | Learning Systems
Restricted © Siemens AG 2014. All rights rese

Forecasting Supply
of Renewable Energy
Forecasting Secondary
Control Reserve Prices
Energy Load Forecasting Forecasting of Energy flows and Transmission
Losses
Energy Price Forecasting of Spot
and Future Markets
Accurate (data-driven) forecasts:
 increase the planning reliability of renewable
energy sources like wind or solar
 help to identify peak loads
 stabilize energy grids through a better estimation of
load flows and transmission losses
 price forecasts minimize market risks and support
optimal resource allocation and planning
Forecasting Solutions for the Energy IndustryForecasting Solutions for the Energy
Industry
© Siemens AG, Corporate Technology

Introduction to the
FORMAT Methodology
G. Cascini (Politecnico di Milano)

FORMAT Methodology:
Stages and Gates
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14
FORmulate
(stage)
Act
(stage)
Model
(Stage)
A
Gate
FOR
Gate
M
Gate
Transfer
(stage)
T
Gate
Next
round
DM requires
further study
Develop forecast for defined
system and contexts (A)
<identify> <a system of problems> <that drives
evolution of system>
<recognize> <evolutionary trends> <for identified
system>
<identify> <changes of performance
characteristic in time>
<aggregate and validate> <results of qualitative
and quantitative studies> <into forecast>

Case Studies at Whirlpool
Pierluigi Petrali (Whirlpool)

TF objectives: to support
decision
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
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16
MAY, 14-15 2015
Give consistency in technology /
product roadmap
Drive research activities (i.e. where
to allocate money and resources)
Design new products
Identify competences needed to
improve competitivity
Invest on technology

EXTERNAL CASE STUDY fOR ITALIAN SME’s
Application of the FORMAT Methodology to Car Interiors Design
Il Laboratorio della Camera di Commercio di Treviso
SANDRO FELTRIN (RIC S.r.l.)

Il Laboratorio della Camera di Commercio di Treviso
SubSystem Present
interno porte, zona
specchietto, ponte
centrale, plancia,
volante, sedili,
cappelliera
5th – WHAT
the STF and its
main
alternative(s) are,
were 10-15 years
ago and are
expected to be in
10 to 15 years
from today ?
Description for
STF (and its main
alternative?) with
• contexts=su
per-systems
(TEES) and
sub-systems
• past history
& expected
future
• present
trends
SuperSystem Future
(2015-2025)
System Present
System:
Interni auto (v. funzione
slide 27: <accogliere>
<passeggeri>)
System Past
(1990-2010)
SuperSystem Present
Abitacolo vettura:
includendo guida,
dispositivi di sicurezza,
cruscotto e
strumentazione,
navigazione, radio
SuperSystem Past
SubSystem Future
(2015-2025)
SubSystem Past
System Future
(2015-2025)

Technology Forecasting
for Industrial Processes
KUCHARAVY Dmitry (Politecnico di Milano)

why to predict
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
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20
MAY, 14-15 2015
During the last decades even the leading companies
• delay to recognize and to agree on problems and threats;
• delay to solve problems and to agree about solutions;
• delay to implement potential solutions and understand their limitations.
source of infographics: http://www.statista.com/

Reference models
Growth under competition
• …
• For socio‐technical systems the
3‐parameter S‐shaped growth model
is applied for describing
"trajectories" of growth or decline in
time

Stage FOR:
Defining Forecast Questions &
Planning the Project
Kaykov Igor (Whirlpool Europe)

(FOR) Stage:
to set up the project
MAY, 14-15 2015
 What is expected by users and beneficiaries as a result of the forecast?
 What questions should be answered for decision makers?
 What is the necessary level of detail?
 How do the results need to be presented? (e.g. graphs, charts, report)
 How will these results be used by users and beneficiaries?
 Will the results of the forecast be used for other purposes? Which
ones?
 What is the approximate time span when a result may be used?
 Where are the results going to be useful?
 Who is going to use the results of the forecast?
These questions need to be answered during first working session

Stage M:
Modelling Existing Knowledge &
Extracting Limiting Resources
Mateusz Słupiński (Wroclaw University of Technology)

M_5 Context
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
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26
MAY, 14-15 2015
Super-systems for 2004
<Modify> <colors> <of surface>
1. Output is mostly non-changeable
(printed)
2. Decoration process:
• with large stock,
• it is off-line,
• recyclability of equipment was
not an issue
• energy consumption was not an
important issue.
3. Investment in equipment, tools, HR,
maintenance was lower.
4. Front surface used for decoration
<Modify > <colors> <of surface>
(to deliver information to users** & to
improve esthetic experience)
1. Output of decoration is printed and
changeable (display)
• with stock,
• it is off-line,
• recyclability of equipment and
tools (!)
• energy consumption (!)
3. Investment in equipment, HR and
maintenance is higher.
4. Rear surface is used for decoration
<Modify > <colors>
1. Output of decoration is printed and/or
dynamic
• without stock,
• it is in-line ,
• increased recyclability of
equipment and tools,
• reduced energy consumption.
3. More (??) investment for equipment,
HR and maintenances.
4. Back side of Intermediate layer used for
decoration
• Silk screening (60%)
• Pad printing (40%)
• Silk screening
• Pad printing
• Others 10%
• Laser marking
• More diversity of applied technologies
for different substrates and products.
• Time form operator’s involvement will
decrease;
• preprocess time decrease
2014 20242004
Super-systems for 2014 Super-systems for 2024
System Operator in ‘Decoration’ case study

Stage A:
Act to Identify Future Traits of the System
to be Forecasted
Niccolò Becattini (Politecnico di Milano)

Step A_4
MAY, 14-15 2015
Forecasting through the
analysis of quantitative
trends
Forecasting further
directions of evolution
through analogies
Forecasting problems
preventing technical
systems evolution
US: Average interior volume of new
refrigerators (1/2)
Parameter Value P-value
Parameter of the regression
Maximum average size expected for interior volume of household refrigerator [cubic feet] and [liters] 21,70 cu ft (614,47l) p<0,01
Period of time for 80% of the cycle [years] 52 years p<0,01
Middle time when interior volume growth achieve his 50% [years] 1953 years p<0,01
Results of the it
R-Squared [%] 98,5% -
Data source: Association of Home
Appliance Manufactures (AHAM)
and Appliance Standards
Awareness Project (ASAP).
FORMAT PUBLIC WORKSHOP
FEBRUARY, 21 2014
forecast
Forming
EXPECTED Evolution
1953 2003
-
- - Mold #1
-
- - Mold #2
Speed
Sucking
device
Holes in
the mold
Sucked
Air
-
- - Mold
Substitution of one
mold with air
(Su-Field interaction
+ Macro to Micro)
xxxx
-
- - Mold
Speed
Sucking
device
Magnetic
ﬁeld
metal particles
in the HIPS sheet
B
BB
Substitution of air with a
Magnetic Field (B)
(Su-Field interaction +
Macro to Micro)
Year
(Macro-to-Micro mold)
Analogical reasoning for envisioning future with pa erns of evolu on
MAY, 14-15 2015
Λ: not equal to
ambient
V: equal to
ambient
Desired result
2D sheet in
the pallet
Temperature
profil e
Example of
contradiction
R1-: • long stock me (3 days),
• big space for 2D sheet stock,
• high immobilized capital (WIP)
R2-: • scrap (3D open shape),
• Human interven on (for temp.
receipt adjustment in
thermoforming process)
R2+: • no scrap (3D open shape),
• No human interven on (for heater
power receipt adjustment in
thermoforming process)
R1+: • short stock me,
• no big space for 2D sheet stock,
• lower immobilized capital (WIP)
MAY, 14-15 2015
Since the maximum interior
volume expected in
refrigerators for next years is
expected to be 614.47 liters
(i.e. substantially STABLE)
THEN
There will be no need to
change vacuum forming
machines to obtain fridge
cavities larger than the current
ones

Stage T:
Transferring Conclusions to
Decision Makers
KUCHARAVY Dmitry (Politecnico di Milano)

Known issues
Ambiguous interpretations of obtained data
(time series) about system to forecast
How to capitalize the collected information
and acquired field-knowledge?
Lack of participation of Users and Beneficiaries
How to make the final presentation and elaborate
reports useful in practice for Users and Beneficiaries?
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
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30
MAY, 14-15 2015

Text Mining
on patents
Massimo Tarantelli (Innovation Engineering, Rome), Emanuele Festa (Politecnico di Milano)

How to do Text Mining?
MAY, 14-15 2015
Corpus selection Pre-processing Post-processing
Words table
(2907777rows)
Patent_statistic
table
(215887 rows)
Word_statistic table
(215887 rows)
Patent_statistic.csv
(215887 rows)
Word_statistic.csv
(215887 rows)
Output as MySQL tables Output as CSV files
Analysis steps 3
The 2 outputs contain the same information

Case Study 1: Decoration
Technologies

Quantitative forecasting
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
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34
MAY, 14-15 2015
2 Herreria, J. L. Bill of Process Decorations for Plastic, Glass & Metal Substrate (2011). Benton Harbor: Advanced Manufacturing, Whirlpool. Confidential
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Parameter #6
Parameter #5
Parameter #4
Parameter #3
Parameter #2
Parameter #1
silk printing pad printing hot stamping
laser marking chemical etching inkjet printing

Year Coating type Alternative Colors Finishing
2000
Polyester 19 (b/w + blue, green,
yellow)
?
PVC 16 (b/w + blue, red,
green, yellow)
?
PVDF 4 (white, light grey) ?
2014
Polyester 57 (full range) Smooth
Polyester Matt 15 (grey, brown, black,
green, red)
Grained
Polyester Nova 54 (full range) Grained
Polyester Nova
Matt
12 (b/w, grey, brown,
green, red)
Smooth
PVC 49 (full range) Embossed
PVDF 15 (b/w, grey, brown,
green, red)
Smooth
Colors and Finishing

Post-industrial future
of Konin city region

M_4: Alternatives
Selection
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
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MAY, 14-15 2015
Alternative solution
Measures
associated
Domains
related
1
Education programs answering to job market
demand
7 2
2 Entrepreneurship incubator 5 2
3 City-bike system 5 3
4 City-bike promotion program 3 3
5
Integrated cooperation between council, business
and NGO (Increased role of business council)
7 2
6 Municipal beach 5 3
7 Private and public zero-energy buildings 1 1
8 Turning a city towards a river 5 2

Stage: Model
Transport of human
with his belongings
from point A to B
Energy
Human in point A
Human in point B
Accidents
Resource usage
Gas emission
Parking
Stores
Protects
Gives pleasure
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Would you like to learn more?
Go to:
Our main site
Team, public deliverables, White Papers
http://www.format-project.eu
Handbook
handbook, case studies, conference materials
http://handbook.format-project.eu
Downloads: http://handbook.format-project.eu/?page_id=354
©FORMAT CONSORTIUM
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
41
MAY, 14-15 2015

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