Environmental

1. Climate Change and consequences

2. Contents
1. Climate change and its impacts
2. Global forests and climate change
3. Ecosystem services of forests
4. Forests and mitigation
5. Forests and adaptation
6. Conclusion

3. 1. Climate Change and its impacts
 Our understanding of climate change is largely the result of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was
created in 1988.
 Climate change occurs when long-term weather patterns are altered,
caused by trapping excess carbon in Earth’s atmosphere
 Global warming is one measure of climate change, and is a rise in
the average global temperature
 It is due to greenhouse effect, which is a natural phenomenon,
essential for life on Earth

4. Climate Change Impacts
Source: GRID Arenal

5. 2. Global forests and climate change
 Potential impacts of a climate change on a forest: a complex
set of linked factors
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

6. Examples of potential impacts
Source: Fischlin et al., 2007; Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

7. 3. Forest ecosystem services and
climate change
 Forest ecosystem services
 Carbon storage  mitigation
 Water regulation and quality  adaptation
 Microclimate regulation  adaptation
 Economic opportunities  adaptation
 Biodiversity, cultural values  adaptation
 Forest and their ecosystem services are vulnerable to climate
variability and change
 Practices to reduce forest vulnerabilities  adaptation

8. 4. Forests and mitigation: Storing
carbon on land
I. Forests and carbon at the global scale
II. Forests and carbon at the ecosystem scale
III. Forests activities that mitigate climate change

9. I. Forests and carbon at the global scale
Atmospheric increase 4.1
Billions of tonnes
per year
Fossil carbon
emissions
Ocean
uptake Deforestation
Residual land
sink
7.2 2.6
2.2
1.6

10. II. Forests and carbon at the ecosystem scale
A forest = carbon stocks
Leaves
Branches
Dead wood
and litter
Soil
Roots
Trunks
Understory
1 kilogram of dry wood equals
about 0.5 kilogram of carbon
Stocks

11. Fluxes
Atmospheric CO2
Net absorption flux
A forest = carbon fluxes with the atmosphere
Products
A forest = a set of carbon fluxes
Atmospheric CO2
Products
Photosynthesis
Respiration
Mortality
Mineralisation
Humification

12. Links between stock and flux

13. Links between stock and flux: Examples

14. Which figure represents the simplified evolution of aboveground
carbon stocks in the following cases?
Years
Carbon stock
Years
Carbon stock
Years
Carbon stock
Years
Carbon stock
Years
Carbon stock
Years
Carbon stock
1
2
3
4
5
6
Non-forested land
Forest conversion to non-
forested land use
Unsustainably managed forest
Plantation established on non-
forested land and harvested
regularly
Forest converted to a
plantation
Conserved primary forest
6
5
4
1
3
2

15. Comparing scenarios
 For climate change mitigation, which is the best alternative?
 A degraded pasture (A)
 A forest plantation, even destroyed or burnt regularly (B)?
Years
Carbon
A
Years
Carbon
B
Answer: B
Additional stored carbon in alternative
B compared to A = carbon that does not
contribute to climate change
Years
Carbon

16. Years
Carbon
A
Years
Carbon
B
 For climate change mitigation, which is the best alternative?
 Conserving an undisturbed forest (A)
 Converting this forest to forest plantation (B)
Carbon emitted into the atmosphere under
scenario B compared to A= Carbon that
contributes to climate change
Answer: A
Years
Carbon
Comparing scenarios

17. III. Forest activities that mitigate climate change
 Increasing carbon stocks
 Avoiding losses of carbon stocks
 Reducing emissions caused by forest
activities: Less energy, oil, fertilizers…
 Producing biomaterials and bio-energy

18. Forest activities: Example
Brown, 1997

19. 5. Forests and adaptation: Supportive
ecosystem services
I. Mitigation vs Adaptation
II. Why is adaptation?
III. The adaptive capacity of ecosystems
IV. Forests for adaptation of society

20. I. Mitigation vs Adaptation
• A reminder
The problem
Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Climate Change
Impacts
Reducing
concentration
of greenhouse
gases
Reducing
vulnerability
The solutions
Mitigation
Adaptation
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

21. Mitigation vs Adaptation
 Adaptation is a local or national issue; mitigation is a global issue
 There has been a taboo on adaptation because it is perceived by
some critics as a way to avoid mitigation
 Adaptation is complex- it is difficult to estimate vulnerability and to
quantify impact of adaptation
 There are no simple metrics, such as the tonnes of CO2 used to
measure mitigation efforts
 There are no markets or few international funds for adaptation
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

22. II. Why is adaptation important?
 Mitigation measures alone are insufficient
 Even with an immediate end to emissions of
green house gases, climate change will occur
 Climate change will continue to occur because
of the inertia of the climate system
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

23. Definitions
 What is adaptation?
 Adaptation is adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
 What is vulnerability?
 Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to,
and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes.
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

24. III. The adaptive capacity of
ecosystems
The adaptive capacity of ecosystems
depends on:
 Biodiversity
More biodiversity=more potential for species
to occupy new environmental niches
More biodiversity=more organism with
phenotypic plasticity
 Migration capacity
Limited by plant life cycle duration, seed
dispersal ability and landscape connectivity
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

25. Planned adaptation for forests
 Ecosystem integrity
 Reduces present threats
 Maintains genetic diversity and promotes ecosystem health via
restoration
 Landscape management
 Avoids fragmentation and provides connectivity
 Maximizes size of management units, enabling decision making
on a large, bio-geographic scale
 Provides buffer zones and flexibility of land uses
 Conserves forest types across environmental gradients
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

26. Planned adaptation for forests
 Protection of key species and ecosystems
 Protects mature forest stands
 Protects functional groups and key stone species
 Protects climatic refugia
 Protects most highly threatened species outside their own habitat
 Active management
 Actively manages pests
 Prevents fire and maintains natural fire regimes
 Silvicultural techniques to promote forest productivity
 Assists migration with species introductions to new areas
Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2006; Carroll et al., 2004

27. IV. Forests can decrease the
vulnerability of society

28. Adaptation options for
forest to climatic variability
Land Use Adaptation Options
Tree plantation  Plant species that can adjust to variable climate situations
 Proper timing of tree-planting or other activities
 Supplemental watering of seedlings
 Adjust silvicultural treatment schedules
 Implement proper silvicultural practices
 Construction of fire breaks
 Controlled burning
Natural forest  Cancellation of logging ban
 Coordination between local government units
 Safety net measures for farmers by local and national government
 Adaptation options were identified by villagers in response to climatic variability
observed
 Below, options identified for forest resources management are identified

29. Trade-offs (cross-sectoral impacts) for adaptation measures (*)
Adaptation Measures
for Forests
Effect on Water
Resources
Effect on Local
Communities
Effect on Institutions
Tree planting (+) Better hydrology (+) Steady supply of
fuelwood
(-) Less area for crops
(-) Increasing cost
Total logging ban (+) More forest cover (-) Less income from timber
(-) Fewer sources of income
(-) Increasing cost of
enforcement and
protection
Use of appropriate
silvicultural practices
(+/-) Could promote or
impair hydrology
depending on the practice
(-) Increasing cost of
implementation
(-) Increasing cost of
implementation
Better implementation of
forest laws
(+) Promotes better
watershed management
(+/-) Could adversely affect
current livelihood of farmers
(‘illegal’activities)
(-) Increasing cost of
implementation
(*) Identified by villagers
(+) Positive outcome
(-) Negative outcome

30. Conclusion
 Climate change occurs when long-term weather patterns are altered, caused
by trapping excess carbon in Earth’s atmosphere.
 The potential impacts of climate change on forests results from a complex
set of linked factors and is generally accepted as a major determinant of
forest ecosystems structure and productivity.
 Forested landscapes provide a variety of ecosystem services which can
either be enhanced and protected by management or can be degraded.
 Many forest activities can contribute to climate change mitigation which
includes carbon sequestration in the ecosystem and energy-related
emissions reduction.
 Adaptation measures reduce the vulnerability of society and ecosystems. It
includes ecosystem integrity, landscape connectivity, protection of key
species and ecosystems and active management.

31. References
Mitigation
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 Brown, S. 1999 Guidelines for Inventorying and Monitoring Carbon Offsets in Forest-Based Projects.
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32. Adaptation
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33. Forests for Adaptation
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