Forecasting your search results Estimating Traffic and Conversions By:  Graeme Benstead-Hume
Why estimate keyword traffic
<ul><li>Write content which  </li></ul><ul><li>will be read </li></ul>
<ul><li>Make sure you are optimising  </li></ul><ul><li>for keywords that people  </li></ul><ul><li>are searching for </li...
<ul><li>Identify new business opportunities </li></ul>
<ul><li>Forecasting check list </li></ul>
<ul><li>How many people  </li></ul><ul><li>are searching for our  </li></ul><ul><li>target keyword? </li></ul>
Estimating Search Volume
Google Adwords Keyword Tool ‘ Candy’ 11.1m Global Monthly Searches 673k Local Monthly Searches Low Competition
<ul><li>How does the season affect search volume? </li></ul>
Google  Insights
Other  uses  for Google Insights Add a seasonal touch to your keyword strategy Read long term trends to identify future  o...
<ul><li>How many people will click  </li></ul><ul><li>on our Google placing? </li></ul>
Click Through Rate Studies <ul><li>Based on our studies these figures are the most accurate CTR estimates produced so far....
Putting it all  together
<ul><li>6,600 </li></ul><ul><li>Estimate ‘Sweeties’ at first place in March </li></ul>March Weighting  March Search Volume...
<ul><li>And conversions? </li></ul><ul><li>2140 </li></ul>Estimated monthly  traffic Average conversion rate 0.02 x =42!
<ul><li>And revenue? </li></ul><ul><li>42 </li></ul>Estimated monthly conversions Average Revenue / Conversion £50 x =£2100
What else can I do with forecasting? Impress your friends and family with tales of the future! Choose which terms to focus...
Actually… how accurate is this? We also use real life data once we have it to add weights to search volume estimates. Base...
What next? Talk to me Stay Tuned
Thank you!
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Forecasting Search Traffic

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Search Innovation Seminar Presentation by Graeme Benstead-Hume, Digital Marketing Manager at SiteVisibility

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  • Hi, thanks for this presentation, did you use maybe tools like Metrics11 to increase your site traffic and you have some insight/opinion?
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  • Interesting presentation.

    We use the same approach at Propellernet but with various further levels of detail - I won't go into them all (unless talking to paying clients!) but one you need to consider for example is alternative click through rates by brand and non-brand terms and by sector. In the travel and retail sectors that we work in you often need to include web-originated call centre sales too within ROI calculations. But whatever factors you take into account, a confidence level of 20% is about as good as you'll get.
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  • Oh, and follow me at @mrgraeme to say hi! I should have added that to the slideshow ;)
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  • Hi, I have a full breakdown of this slideshow at http://mrmetrics.com/2011/forecasting-search-traffic/ Glad you all enjoyed it :)
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  • First we need to know how many people are searching for our target search term. Some tools are more accurate than others.
  • Some clever Math types took some leaked search data and estimated Click Through Rates for various positions on Google.
  • Forecasting Search Traffic

    1. Forecasting your search results Estimating Traffic and Conversions By: Graeme Benstead-Hume
    2. Why estimate keyword traffic
    3. <ul><li>Write content which  </li></ul><ul><li>will be read </li></ul>
    4. <ul><li>Make sure you are optimising </li></ul><ul><li>for keywords that people </li></ul><ul><li>are searching for </li></ul>
    5. <ul><li>Identify new business opportunities </li></ul>
    6. <ul><li>Forecasting check list </li></ul>
    7. <ul><li>How many people  </li></ul><ul><li>are searching for our  </li></ul><ul><li>target keyword? </li></ul>
    8. Estimating Search Volume
    9. Google Adwords Keyword Tool ‘ Candy’ 11.1m Global Monthly Searches 673k Local Monthly Searches Low Competition
    10. <ul><li>How does the season affect search volume? </li></ul>
    11. Google Insights
    12. Other uses for Google Insights Add a seasonal touch to your keyword strategy Read long term trends to identify future opportunities Justify recent changes in traffic volume
    13. <ul><li>How many people will click  </li></ul><ul><li>on our Google placing? </li></ul>
    14. Click Through Rate Studies <ul><li>Based on our studies these figures are the most accurate CTR estimates produced so far. </li></ul>
    15. Putting it all together
    16. <ul><li>6,600 </li></ul><ul><li>Estimate ‘Sweeties’ at first place in March </li></ul>March Weighting  March Search Volume ÷ Total Avg. Search Volume CTR at position 1 Estimated monthly search  volume 0.89 0.364 x x =2140
    17. <ul><li>And conversions? </li></ul><ul><li>2140 </li></ul>Estimated monthly traffic Average conversion rate 0.02 x =42!
    18. <ul><li>And revenue? </li></ul><ul><li>42 </li></ul>Estimated monthly conversions Average Revenue / Conversion £50 x =£2100
    19. What else can I do with forecasting? Impress your friends and family with tales of the future! Choose which terms to focus budget on! Calculate ROI!
    20. Actually… how accurate is this? We also use real life data once we have it to add weights to search volume estimates. Based on our latest studies we are looking at around a 20% error margin.
    21. What next? Talk to me Stay Tuned
    22. Thank you!

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