- The document describes developing a multiple linear regression model to forecast municipal solid waste generation based on factors like population, population density, education levels, access to services, and income levels.
- The model was developed using data from various municipalities in Italy. Exploratory data analysis was conducted to determine linear relationships between waste generation and predictors.
- The linear regression model achieved a high R-squared value of 91.81%, indicating a close fit to the data. Various error metrics like MAE, MSE and RMSE were calculated to evaluate model performance.
- The regression model provides a simple yet accurate means of predicting municipal solid waste that requires minimal data and can be generalized to other locations.
Computer model simulations are widely used in the investigation of complex hydrological systems. In particular, hydrological models are tools that help both to better understand hydrological processes and to predict extreme events such as floods and droughts. Usually, model parameters need to be estimated through calibration, in order to constrain model outputs to observed variables.
Relevant model parameters used for calibration are usually selected based on expert knowledge of the modeller or by using a local one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis (SA). However, in case of complex models those approaches may not result in proper identification of the most sensitive parameters for model calibration. In particular local OAT SA methods are only effective for assessing the relative importance of input factors when the model is linear, monotonic, and additive, which is rarely the case for complex environmental models. In contrast Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA)
is a formal method for statistical evaluation of relevant parameters that contribute significantly to model performance. GSA techniques explore the entire feasible space of each model parameter, and they do not require any assumptions on the model nature (such as linearity or additivity).
In this work we apply the GSA to LISFLOOD, a fully-distributed hydrological model used for flood forecasting at Pan-European scale within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Two case studies are considered, snowmelt- and evapotranspiration-driven catchments, to identify sensitive parameters for both types of hydrological regimes. Results of the GSA will then be used for selecting parameters that need to be estimated during model calibration. Considering the large
number of parameters of a fully-distributed model, a two-step GSA framework is applied. First, we implement the computationally efficient screening method of Morris. This method requires a limited number of simulations and produces a qualitative ranking and selection of important factors. As a second step, we apply the variance-based method of Sobol, only to the subset of factors determined as important during the previous screening. The method of Sobol provides quantitative estimates for first order and total order sensitivity indexes of input factors.
The calibration results after the GSA will be described for both case studies and compared against those obtained by using only prior expert knowledge
Rule Optimization of Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno using Evolution Strategy f...IJECEIAES
The need for accurate load forecasts will increase in the future because of the dramatic changes occurring in the electricity consumption. Sugeno fuzzy inference system (FIS) can be used for short-term load forecasting. However, challenges in the electrical load forecasting are the data used the data trend. Therefore, it is difficult to develop appropriate fuzzy rules for Sugeno FIS. This paper proposes Evolution Strategy method to determine appropriate rules for Sugeno FIS that have minimum forecasting error. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used to evaluate the goodness of the forecasting result. The numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed optimized Sugeno FIS for several test-case problems. The optimized Sugeno FIS produce lower RMSE comparable to those achieved by other wellknown method in the literature.
Atmospheric Pollutant Concentration Prediction Based on KPCA BPijtsrd
PM2.5 prediction research has important significance for improving human health and atmospheric environmental quality, etc. This paper uses a model combining nuclear principal component analysis method and neural network to study the prediction problem of meteorological pollutant concentration, and compares the experimental results with the prediction results of the original neural network and the principal component analysis neural network. Based on the O3, CO, PM10, SO2, NO2 concentrations and parallel meteorological conditions data of Beijing from 2016 to 2020, the PM2.5 concentration was predicted. First, reduce the latitude of the data, and then use the KPCA BP neural network algorithm for training. The results show that the average absolute error, root mean square error and expected variance score of the combined model are relatively good, the generalization ability is strong, and the extreme value prediction is the best, which is better than that of the single model. Xin Lin | Bo Wang | Wenjing Ai "Atmospheric Pollutant Concentration Prediction Based on KPCA-BP" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-5 , August 2022, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd51746.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/environment-engineering/51746/atmospheric-pollutant-concentration-prediction-based-on-kpcabp/xin-lin
Computer model simulations are widely used in the investigation of complex hydrological systems. In particular, hydrological models are tools that help both to better understand hydrological processes and to predict extreme events such as floods and droughts. Usually, model parameters need to be estimated through calibration, in order to constrain model outputs to observed variables.
Relevant model parameters used for calibration are usually selected based on expert knowledge of the modeller or by using a local one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis (SA). However, in case of complex models those approaches may not result in proper identification of the most sensitive parameters for model calibration. In particular local OAT SA methods are only effective for assessing the relative importance of input factors when the model is linear, monotonic, and additive, which is rarely the case for complex environmental models. In contrast Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA)
is a formal method for statistical evaluation of relevant parameters that contribute significantly to model performance. GSA techniques explore the entire feasible space of each model parameter, and they do not require any assumptions on the model nature (such as linearity or additivity).
In this work we apply the GSA to LISFLOOD, a fully-distributed hydrological model used for flood forecasting at Pan-European scale within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Two case studies are considered, snowmelt- and evapotranspiration-driven catchments, to identify sensitive parameters for both types of hydrological regimes. Results of the GSA will then be used for selecting parameters that need to be estimated during model calibration. Considering the large
number of parameters of a fully-distributed model, a two-step GSA framework is applied. First, we implement the computationally efficient screening method of Morris. This method requires a limited number of simulations and produces a qualitative ranking and selection of important factors. As a second step, we apply the variance-based method of Sobol, only to the subset of factors determined as important during the previous screening. The method of Sobol provides quantitative estimates for first order and total order sensitivity indexes of input factors.
The calibration results after the GSA will be described for both case studies and compared against those obtained by using only prior expert knowledge
Rule Optimization of Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno using Evolution Strategy f...IJECEIAES
The need for accurate load forecasts will increase in the future because of the dramatic changes occurring in the electricity consumption. Sugeno fuzzy inference system (FIS) can be used for short-term load forecasting. However, challenges in the electrical load forecasting are the data used the data trend. Therefore, it is difficult to develop appropriate fuzzy rules for Sugeno FIS. This paper proposes Evolution Strategy method to determine appropriate rules for Sugeno FIS that have minimum forecasting error. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used to evaluate the goodness of the forecasting result. The numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed optimized Sugeno FIS for several test-case problems. The optimized Sugeno FIS produce lower RMSE comparable to those achieved by other wellknown method in the literature.
Atmospheric Pollutant Concentration Prediction Based on KPCA BPijtsrd
PM2.5 prediction research has important significance for improving human health and atmospheric environmental quality, etc. This paper uses a model combining nuclear principal component analysis method and neural network to study the prediction problem of meteorological pollutant concentration, and compares the experimental results with the prediction results of the original neural network and the principal component analysis neural network. Based on the O3, CO, PM10, SO2, NO2 concentrations and parallel meteorological conditions data of Beijing from 2016 to 2020, the PM2.5 concentration was predicted. First, reduce the latitude of the data, and then use the KPCA BP neural network algorithm for training. The results show that the average absolute error, root mean square error and expected variance score of the combined model are relatively good, the generalization ability is strong, and the extreme value prediction is the best, which is better than that of the single model. Xin Lin | Bo Wang | Wenjing Ai "Atmospheric Pollutant Concentration Prediction Based on KPCA-BP" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-5 , August 2022, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd51746.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/environment-engineering/51746/atmospheric-pollutant-concentration-prediction-based-on-kpcabp/xin-lin
The final cost of public school building projects, like other construction projects, is unknown
to the owner till the account closure. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is used in an attempt to
predict the final cost of two story (12 classes) school projects under lowest bid system of award
before work starts. A database of (65) school projects records completed in (2007-2012) are used to
develop and verify the ANN model. Based on expert opinions, nine out of eleven parameters are
considered to have the most significant impact on the magnitude of final cost. Hence they are used as
model inputs while the output of the model is going to be the final cost (FC). These parameters are;
accepted bid price, average bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, supervising engineer
experience, project location, number of bidders, year of contracting, and contractual duration. It was
found that ANN has the ability to predict the final cost for school projects with very good degree of
accuracy having a coefficient of correlation (R) of (91%), and an average accuracy percentage of
(99.98%).
ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...IJDKP
Environmental air pollution studies fail to consider the fact that air pollution is a spatio-temporal problem.
The volume and complexity of the data have created the need to explore various machine learning models,
however, those models have advantages and disadvantages when applied to regional air pollution analysis,
furthermore, most environmental problems are global distribution problems. This research addressed
spatio-temporal problem using decentralized computational technique named Online Scalable SVM
Ensemble Learning Method (OSSELM). Evaluation criteria for computational air pollution analysis
includes: accuracy, real time & prediction, spatio-temporal and decentralised analysis, we assert that these
criteria can be improved using the proposed OSSELM. Special consideration is given to distributed
ensemble to resolve spatio-temporal data collection problem (i.e. the data collected from multiple
monitoring stations dispersed over a geographical location). Moreover, the experimental results
demonstrated that the proposed OSSELM produced impressive results compare to SVM ensemble for air
pollution analysis in Auckland region.
ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...IJDKP
Environmental air pollution studies fail to consider the fact that air pollution is a spatio-temporal problem. The volume and complexity of the data have created the need to explore various machine learning models, however, those models have advantages and disadvantages when applied to regional air pollution analysis, furthermore, most environmental problems are global distribution problems. This research addressed spatio-temporal problem using decentralized computational technique named Online Scalable SVM Ensemble Learning Method (OSSELM). Evaluation criteria for computational air pollution analysis includes: accuracy, real time & prediction, spatio-temporal and decentralised analysis, we assert that these criteria can be improved using the proposed OSSELM. Special consideration is given to distributed ensemble to resolve spatio-temporal data collection problem (i.e. the data collected from multiple monitoring stations dispersed over a geographical location). Moreover, the experimental results demonstrated that the proposed OSSELM produced impressive results compare to SVM ensemble for air pollution analysis in Auckland region.
ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...IJDKP
Environmental air pollution studies fail to consider the fact that air pollution is a spatio-temporal problem.
The volume and complexity of the data have created the need to explore various machine learning models,
however, those models have advantages and disadvantages when applied to regional air pollution analysis,
furthermore, most environmental problems are global distribution problems. This research addressed
spatio-temporal problem using decentralized computational technique named Online Scalable SVM
Ensemble Learning Method (OSSELM). Evaluation criteria for computational air pollution analysis
includes: accuracy, real time & prediction, spatio-temporal and decentralised analysis, we assert that these
criteria can be improved using the proposed OSSELM. Special consideration is given to distributed
ensemble to resolve spatio-temporal data collection problem (i.e. the data collected from multiple
monitoring stations dispersed over a geographical location). Moreover, the experimental results
demonstrated that the proposed OSSELM produced impressive results compare to SVM ensemble for air
pollution analysis in Auckland region.
Investigation of the Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Municipal Solid Waste ...mustansar khan
Investigation of the Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Development of Waste Generation forecast Model Using Machine Learning for Dubai
Multi-task learning using non-linear autoregressive models and recurrent neur...IJECEIAES
Tide level forecasting plays an important role in environmental management and development. Current tide level forecasting methods are usually implemented for solving single task problems, that is, a model built based on the tide level data at an individual location is only used to forecast tide level of the same location but is not used for tide forecasting at another location. This study proposes a new method for tide level prediction at multiple locations simultaneously. The method combines nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and incorporates them into a multi-task learning (MTL) framework. Experiments are designed and performed to compare single task learning (STL) and MTL with and without using non-linear autoregressive models. Three different RNN variants, namely, long short- term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) are employed together with non-linear autoregressive models. A case study on tide level forecasting at many different geographical locations (5 to 11 locations) is conducted. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed architectures outperform the classical single-task prediction methods.
- Complexity of climate systems
- Climate modelling
- The need for modelling
- System thinking
- Analytical vs Numerical modeling
- Mathematical models
- Modeling process and model selection
- Model Uncertainty
- Modeling application and tools
The final cost of public school building projects, like other construction projects, is unknown
to the owner till the account closure. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is used in an attempt to
predict the final cost of two story (12 classes) school projects under lowest bid system of award
before work starts. A database of (65) school projects records completed in (2007-2012) are used to
develop and verify the ANN model. Based on expert opinions, nine out of eleven parameters are
considered to have the most significant impact on the magnitude of final cost. Hence they are used as
model inputs while the output of the model is going to be the final cost (FC). These parameters are;
accepted bid price, average bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, supervising engineer
experience, project location, number of bidders, year of contracting, and contractual duration. It was
found that ANN has the ability to predict the final cost for school projects with very good degree of
accuracy having a coefficient of correlation (R) of (91%), and an average accuracy percentage of
(99.98%).
ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...IJDKP
Environmental air pollution studies fail to consider the fact that air pollution is a spatio-temporal problem.
The volume and complexity of the data have created the need to explore various machine learning models,
however, those models have advantages and disadvantages when applied to regional air pollution analysis,
furthermore, most environmental problems are global distribution problems. This research addressed
spatio-temporal problem using decentralized computational technique named Online Scalable SVM
Ensemble Learning Method (OSSELM). Evaluation criteria for computational air pollution analysis
includes: accuracy, real time & prediction, spatio-temporal and decentralised analysis, we assert that these
criteria can be improved using the proposed OSSELM. Special consideration is given to distributed
ensemble to resolve spatio-temporal data collection problem (i.e. the data collected from multiple
monitoring stations dispersed over a geographical location). Moreover, the experimental results
demonstrated that the proposed OSSELM produced impressive results compare to SVM ensemble for air
pollution analysis in Auckland region.
ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...IJDKP
Environmental air pollution studies fail to consider the fact that air pollution is a spatio-temporal problem. The volume and complexity of the data have created the need to explore various machine learning models, however, those models have advantages and disadvantages when applied to regional air pollution analysis, furthermore, most environmental problems are global distribution problems. This research addressed spatio-temporal problem using decentralized computational technique named Online Scalable SVM Ensemble Learning Method (OSSELM). Evaluation criteria for computational air pollution analysis includes: accuracy, real time & prediction, spatio-temporal and decentralised analysis, we assert that these criteria can be improved using the proposed OSSELM. Special consideration is given to distributed ensemble to resolve spatio-temporal data collection problem (i.e. the data collected from multiple monitoring stations dispersed over a geographical location). Moreover, the experimental results demonstrated that the proposed OSSELM produced impressive results compare to SVM ensemble for air pollution analysis in Auckland region.
ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...IJDKP
Environmental air pollution studies fail to consider the fact that air pollution is a spatio-temporal problem.
The volume and complexity of the data have created the need to explore various machine learning models,
however, those models have advantages and disadvantages when applied to regional air pollution analysis,
furthermore, most environmental problems are global distribution problems. This research addressed
spatio-temporal problem using decentralized computational technique named Online Scalable SVM
Ensemble Learning Method (OSSELM). Evaluation criteria for computational air pollution analysis
includes: accuracy, real time & prediction, spatio-temporal and decentralised analysis, we assert that these
criteria can be improved using the proposed OSSELM. Special consideration is given to distributed
ensemble to resolve spatio-temporal data collection problem (i.e. the data collected from multiple
monitoring stations dispersed over a geographical location). Moreover, the experimental results
demonstrated that the proposed OSSELM produced impressive results compare to SVM ensemble for air
pollution analysis in Auckland region.
Investigation of the Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Municipal Solid Waste ...mustansar khan
Investigation of the Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Development of Waste Generation forecast Model Using Machine Learning for Dubai
Multi-task learning using non-linear autoregressive models and recurrent neur...IJECEIAES
Tide level forecasting plays an important role in environmental management and development. Current tide level forecasting methods are usually implemented for solving single task problems, that is, a model built based on the tide level data at an individual location is only used to forecast tide level of the same location but is not used for tide forecasting at another location. This study proposes a new method for tide level prediction at multiple locations simultaneously. The method combines nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and incorporates them into a multi-task learning (MTL) framework. Experiments are designed and performed to compare single task learning (STL) and MTL with and without using non-linear autoregressive models. Three different RNN variants, namely, long short- term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) are employed together with non-linear autoregressive models. A case study on tide level forecasting at many different geographical locations (5 to 11 locations) is conducted. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed architectures outperform the classical single-task prediction methods.
- Complexity of climate systems
- Climate modelling
- The need for modelling
- System thinking
- Analytical vs Numerical modeling
- Mathematical models
- Modeling process and model selection
- Model Uncertainty
- Modeling application and tools
Hierarchical Digital Twin of a Naval Power SystemKerry Sado
A hierarchical digital twin of a Naval DC power system has been developed and experimentally verified. Similar to other state-of-the-art digital twins, this technology creates a digital replica of the physical system executed in real-time or faster, which can modify hardware controls. However, its advantage stems from distributing computational efforts by utilizing a hierarchical structure composed of lower-level digital twin blocks and a higher-level system digital twin. Each digital twin block is associated with a physical subsystem of the hardware and communicates with a singular system digital twin, which creates a system-level response. By extracting information from each level of the hierarchy, power system controls of the hardware were reconfigured autonomously. This hierarchical digital twin development offers several advantages over other digital twins, particularly in the field of naval power systems. The hierarchical structure allows for greater computational efficiency and scalability while the ability to autonomously reconfigure hardware controls offers increased flexibility and responsiveness. The hierarchical decomposition and models utilized were well aligned with the physical twin, as indicated by the maximum deviations between the developed digital twin hierarchy and the hardware.
Immunizing Image Classifiers Against Localized Adversary Attacksgerogepatton
This paper addresses the vulnerability of deep learning models, particularly convolutional neural networks
(CNN)s, to adversarial attacks and presents a proactive training technique designed to counter them. We
introduce a novel volumization algorithm, which transforms 2D images into 3D volumetric representations.
When combined with 3D convolution and deep curriculum learning optimization (CLO), itsignificantly improves
the immunity of models against localized universal attacks by up to 40%. We evaluate our proposed approach
using contemporary CNN architectures and the modified Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR-10
and CIFAR-100) and ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC12) datasets, showcasing
accuracy improvements over previous techniques. The results indicate that the combination of the volumetric
input and curriculum learning holds significant promise for mitigating adversarial attacks without necessitating
adversary training.
CFD Simulation of By-pass Flow in a HRSG module by R&R Consult.pptxR&R Consult
CFD analysis is incredibly effective at solving mysteries and improving the performance of complex systems!
Here's a great example: At a large natural gas-fired power plant, where they use waste heat to generate steam and energy, they were puzzled that their boiler wasn't producing as much steam as expected.
R&R and Tetra Engineering Group Inc. were asked to solve the issue with reduced steam production.
An inspection had shown that a significant amount of hot flue gas was bypassing the boiler tubes, where the heat was supposed to be transferred.
R&R Consult conducted a CFD analysis, which revealed that 6.3% of the flue gas was bypassing the boiler tubes without transferring heat. The analysis also showed that the flue gas was instead being directed along the sides of the boiler and between the modules that were supposed to capture the heat. This was the cause of the reduced performance.
Based on our results, Tetra Engineering installed covering plates to reduce the bypass flow. This improved the boiler's performance and increased electricity production.
It is always satisfying when we can help solve complex challenges like this. Do your systems also need a check-up or optimization? Give us a call!
Work done in cooperation with James Malloy and David Moelling from Tetra Engineering.
More examples of our work https://www.r-r-consult.dk/en/cases-en/
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
A case study of the used of Advanced Process Control at the Wastewater Treatment works at Lleida in Spain
A look back on an article on smart wastewater networks in order to see how the industry has measured up in the interim around the adoption of Digital Transformation in the Water Industry.
Water scarcity is the lack of fresh water resources to meet the standard water demand. There are two type of water scarcity. One is physical. The other is economic water scarcity.
Explore the innovative world of trenchless pipe repair with our comprehensive guide, "The Benefits and Techniques of Trenchless Pipe Repair." This document delves into the modern methods of repairing underground pipes without the need for extensive excavation, highlighting the numerous advantages and the latest techniques used in the industry.
Learn about the cost savings, reduced environmental impact, and minimal disruption associated with trenchless technology. Discover detailed explanations of popular techniques such as pipe bursting, cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) lining, and directional drilling. Understand how these methods can be applied to various types of infrastructure, from residential plumbing to large-scale municipal systems.
Ideal for homeowners, contractors, engineers, and anyone interested in modern plumbing solutions, this guide provides valuable insights into why trenchless pipe repair is becoming the preferred choice for pipe rehabilitation. Stay informed about the latest advancements and best practices in the field.
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