Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
FLIR
1.
Key Statistics
BUY
Recommendation
Sector: Technology
Industry: Communications
Market cap: $4.55B
52 week high: $33.75
52 week low: $25.12
Trailing P/E: 19.25x
Forward P/E: 17.71x
P/S: 2.96x
EV/EBITDA: 12.49x
Beta: 1.09
ROA: 10.15%
ROE: 14.83%
Investment ThesisCatalysts
Current Price: $33 Intrinsic Value: $43 Target Price: $53 Implied Return: 31%NASDAQ: FLIR
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
70%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
FLIR S&P 500
FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR) is engaged in designing, developing, marketing, and
distributing solutions that detect people and objects for use in various industries. Its
technologies include thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locator
systems, and measurement and diagnostic systems. The shift by governments towards
preventative defense through surveillance will drive demand going forward.
Company Profile
FLIR is the leader in the infrared sensor market. The large majority of
worldwide defense spending growth, especially in surveillance and
border control will be captured by the firm. Growth in the consumer
segments will be spurred by Lepton technology.
- Global shift by governments towards surveillance
- Margin expansion through Lepton technology
- High growth in emerging technologies including auto applications
- Commercialization of Lepton Technology
- Geopolitical Instability
- Domestic Surveillance Spending
- Growth in Surveillance & Security Segments
- Emerging Market Growth
Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR
Price Performance
2.
Recommendation: BUY
Investment Thesis Breakdown
Increased Surveillance Budgets
Margin Expansion
FLIR is the worldwide leader in detection technology with a
focus on infrared solutions. Its technology is used in
surveillance, detection, and security applications by
governments around the world.
Due to the continued geopolitical instability around the
world, coupled with the hesitation by governments to enter
into war, many of the world’s governments are entering a
state of Cold War-like surveillance in order to mitigate
attacks. With the focus shifting from supplying missiles and
armaments to the fortifying and surveillance of borders and
other critical points, such as transportation hubs, FLIR will
supply the majority of the large defense contractors
supplying surveillance solutions to governments worldwide.
The continued pressure from governments to curtail excessive defense spending should provide further
compression of traditional defense outlets and drive the further focus towards preventative surveillance solutions.
Thus, instead of spending money on resolving conflicts and responding to threats, governments will have a more
active role in the prevention of said events in order to save lives and cut overall costs.
Furthermore, the updating of current surveillance systems with state-of-the-art imaging technology will promote
this effort, but also provide a wide opportunity for FLIR to capitalize on meeting this new demand. The expected
upgrade cycle from governments in Europe and the Middle East will lead the growth in this segment.
With the introduction of new technologies, FLIR has historically been able to expand margins as the majority of its
revenues have been contract based. By having predictable revenues and the ability to expand margins by way
of technological change, FLIR will observe continued gross margin growth.
The Lepton thermal imaging core is the newest innovation in the long history of margin expanding inputs. Lepton
will allow for continued margin expansion by making future products cheaper to mass produce. Additionally, this
technology will lead FLIR to enter new emerging markets, which carry higher margins as they are at the forefront
of technology. As demand for these markets remain on the higher end throughout our investment horizon, the
margin expected should be higher, coupled with the natural expansion expected from Lepton technology.
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 2
International Terrorism
Iranian Nuclear Weapons
Cyberterrorism
Biological Warfare
Syrian Conflict
North Korea
Refugee Influx 52%
58%
58%
63%
73%
75%
79%
American’s Top Threat Consensus
3.
Recommendation: BUY
Investment Thesis Continued
Growth in Domestic Security Sector
Worldwide Shift Towards Surveillance
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 3
Home security expenditure growth is expected to continue
well into the future. Over the past 7 years, the household
security industry has seen revenue growth in new home
installations every year. Additionally, overall household
security purchases have largely grown to accommodate the
added demand brought on by instability.
Security measures are being ramped up across the board,
from airports and transportation hubs, to homes and
apartments. FLIR’s sensors enhance the detection
capabilities of home systems and provide an outlet for a
switch to higher end technology.
The connected home will drive growth in household products. Where firms like Nest and Phillips attempt to
penetrate this new market with their thermostat and color LED lighting, FLIR provides homeowners with the
technology to feel safer at home. Additionally, cities have began to install FLIR technology to ramp up community
security efforts throughout the U.S., and the trend is expected to develop in European and Asian markets.
Over the past 10 years, terrorism has caused around
130,000 fatalities worldwide. To combat the growing fear of
attacks, governments are taking a more direct and active
approach towards surveillance.
As the continued instability in the Middle East drives anxiety
in the West, a concentrated focus towards preventative
security and surveillance will drive future demand for the
firm. Solutions, including border security should see future
funding as the current geopolitical environment points
towards stricter entry requirements and tougher border
security in order to mitigate foreign terrorism efforts.
The Schengen Area, the world’s largest borderless territory will come under review following the events throughout
Europe resulting from the widespread foreign refugee influx and the area’s ease of travel. The Schengen Area
becoming securitized would result in a massive opportunity for FLIR to supply the necessary technology to surveil
the area. Furthermore, the border control overhaul expected around Europe in securitized zones provides
additional opportunities.
17,000M
18,250M
19,500M
20,750M
22,000M
3M
4M
5M
6M
7M
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Household Purchases Revenue
U.S. Terrorism Deaths & Injuries
0
25
50
75
100
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
4.
Recommendation: BUY
Markets
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 4
Surveillance Security
OEM & Emerging Markets Detection
The Surveillance segment develops products used
to protect borders, conduct search and rescue
missions, gather intelligence, and protect critical
infrastructure by providing the capability to see
over long distances, day or night, through adverse
weather conditions, and from a variety of vehicle,
man-portable, and fixed-installation platforms.
Customers generally consist of United States and
foreign government agencies, including civilian,
military, paramilitary, and police forces, as well as
defense contractors and aircraft manufacturers.
The Security segment provides security solutions
for home and small business monitoring, and
enterprise and infrastructure security. The segment
develops video security solutions for use in
commercial, critical infrastructure, and home
security. Solutions include thermal and digital
cameras, and related video management software.
Customers for the visible-spectrum solutions
include high-end critical infrastructure users, and
homeowners. Thermal security cameras are sold
into the high-end critical infrastructure category.
The OEM & Emerging Markets segment develops
and manufactures thermal imaging camera cores
and related components. A thermal camera core is
an integrated camera system that includes the
infrared sensor, related image processing
electronics and an optical lens. The segment also
includes high-potential products that do not have
the scale to represent their own segment.
Customers include makers of military aircraft and
vehicles, automotive safety equipment, firefighting
equipment, security cameras, hunting equipment,
and unmanned aerial systems. FLIR sell its Mobile
products to homeowners, outdoors people, and
technology enthusiasts.
The Detection segment develops and manufactures
field-ready sensor instruments for the detection,
identification, classification, and suppression of
chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and
explosive threats for military force protection,
homeland security, and commercial applications.
Solutions combine detection technologies into
single hand-held instrument.
Customers include federal, state, and local
government; all branches of the U.S. military,
foreign militaries, private sector businesses; and
commercial ports. FLIR sells to agencies including
the Departments of Homeland Security, Defense,
and Energy, as well as the FBI and Secret Service.
5.
Recommendation: BUY
Competitive Advantage
Competitor Analysis
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 5
- BAE Systems: Headquartered in London, provides defense, aerospace and
security solutions operating in five segments: Electronic Systems, Cyber &
Intelligence, Platforms & Services (US), P&S (UK) and P&S (International)
- L-3 Communications: Engaged as a system contractor in aircraft
modernization & maintenance, Command, Control, Communications,
Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance systems, and governments
- Danaher Corporation: Offers thermal imaging products and sensors that
compete with FLIR’s products in its Test & Measurement segment
- Raytheon: Develops integrated products, services and solutions in the
sensing, control, and intelligence sectors
Due to FLIR’s broad product reach and market reach, it operates in a highly concentrated industry. Many of its
competitors operate in other industries, and thus may have a larger market capitalization than FLIR. However,
based on our research and because FLIR has a focus for infrared and thermal imaging systems, it remains the
highest quality primary global provider for infrared and thermal imaging systems and products.
Commercial Operating Model: The business model that FLIR uses has a commercial approach, starting with its
R&D, which is geared toward meeting the demands and wants of its end-users. Additionally, FLIR develops its
products at high-volume levels with the ability to control multiple production inputs, driving low-cost production.
Vertical Integration: FLIR has developed a competitive advantage through its vertical integration. Its ability to
operate its processes completely internally, from the R&D, to its supply network, to its manufacturing process,
rather than use external sourcing for these steps of the process provides significant cost advantages. While FLIR
sees these benefits in its margins, it also benefits from its vertical integration with engineering advantages by
designing products exactly towards the target market.
Broad Product Mix: The firm has a broad product mix that has a variety of applications that can reach several
markets and end-users. The ability for FLIR to reach a wide variety of end-users helps grow the top line and
mitigate fluctuations of demand. Moreover, FLIR is constantly developing and improving its products with more
applications to reach a wider end-market.
Internally Funded Research and Development: Research and development is funded internally, allowing FLIR to
have ownership of the development process and create products that are commercially viable. Additionally, FLIR
has a large portfolio of patents allowing them to develop certain high demand technologies.
6.
Industry Analysis
Recommendation: BUY
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 6
Electronic Equipment & Instruments Industry
FLIR operates in the infrared and thermal imaging segment
of the electronic equipment and instruments industry, which
currently has a total market value of around $3.3 billion and
is expected to grow to over $5 billion by 2020. The industry
is evolving to include more commercialized products, as
there has been increased demand based on the variety of
applications for infrared and thermal imaging and to
mitigate the impact of possible stagnation in defense
budgets worldwide.
The commercial and household security markets depend
largely on macroeconomic and disposable income to drive
demand for security equipment. In the high margin
household segment, we expect high growth driven by the
smart home industry for advanced security systems, which
will be spurred by growing per capita disposable income.
The largest driver of this industry is federal funding for
defense and homeland security, and carries political risk as
budgets largely depend on the administration and
congressional bias. In 2015, the U.S. government spent
approximately $606 billion on defense, which was down
from 2010 when the government spent the most on public
defense in the last decade with approximately $760 billion
in spending. While there is great uncertainty about the
public defense budget, based on our research alongside
the increased geopolitical risk and number of terror attacks
throughout the world recently, we expect the U.S.
government to spend around $616 billion in 2016 and
roughly $600 billion through 2020. Furthermore, the
Department of Homeland Security spent approximately
$45.7 billion in 2015, and is expected to spend
approximately $46.2 billion in 2016.
Infrared and thermal imaging sensors and systems have
several applications that are used by firefighters and law
enforcement officers. Thus, local and state government
spending for law enforcement departments and fire
departments is an important driver of this industry.
Department of Homeland Security
Spending
Inbillions
$0
$18
$35
$53
$70
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Per Capita Disposable Income
Forecast
Inmillions
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
7.
Industry Analysis Continued
Recommendation: BUY
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 7
Due to the nature of the product and the manufacturing business, the price of plastic and raw materials is an
important determinant of costs within the industry. The price of plastic is correlated to the price of crude oil as oil
products make up the primary materials used in the production of plastics. Thus, as oil rises, it is likely that the
price of plastic will also rise.
In 2015, the average price index for plastic was 233.3 and in 2016 is expected to rise to around 236, largely due
to the expectations in the price of oil. Also, as the industry becomes more commercialized and brings more
products that have consumer and business applications, the industry will begin to rely more heavily on corporate
profit and spending, especially for industrial products, as well as consumer disposable income.
Due to the macroeconomic headwinds and the expectations of increased interest rates over the intermediate
term, the cost of capital could increase while corporate profits are expected to decrease slightly. In 2015,
corporate profits were approximately $2,045 billion which was a 1.4% decrease from 2014. The 2015 per capita
disposable income was $38,050 compared to 2014 per capita disposable income of $37,077.
Moat
The infrared and thermal imaging industry is highly
competitive. The barriers to enter are high as companies that
operate in this space compete for government contracts,
pricing power, and cost efficiencies. The ability to obtain
government contracts is based on the company’s ability to
develop and manufacture products that are high quality and
reliable at a low cost. Firms compete for pricing power and
cost efficiencies, which can be obtained through vertical
integration of processes, starting at the research and
development through to the manufacturing phase.
Prospective firms face significant barriers to entry as the
industry requires a significant amount of investment capital
and economies of scale to successfully compete. Investments
include research and development, manufacturing and
assembly facilities, equipment, and labor, as well as the
ability to obtain affordable raw materials.
FLIR’s focus on cost and production effectiveness has allowed the firm to provide a specialized product for the
specific task needed in a shorter amount of time, at comparable to lower prices than its larger peers. Additionally,
the firm’s margin growth has led to its continued success in asset utilization far exceeding the industry average.
For a new entrant to effectively compete with FLIR, it would need to implement a cost structure that undercuts the
most cost and production effective firm in the industry while providing premium products to compete with the only
large firm strictly focused on infrared.
Gross Margin
Net Margin
ROA
0 12.5 25 37.5 50
FLIR Industry
8.
Recommendation: BUY
Catalysts
The FLIR Lepton is the world’s smallest infrared sensor
available as an OEM product. It packs a resolution of 80 × 60
pixels into a camera body that is smaller than a dime. This
revolutionary camera core is poised to make thermal imaging
available to a new generation of mobile and handheld
devices, as well as small fixed-mount camera systems.
This technology has allowed FLIR to reduce the cost of a
camera from over $5,000 to around $250. This allows them to
enter new markets and distribution channels as the
technology becomes more affordable for commercial use.
FLIR’s continued efforts into innovative technologies have
allowed them to be first to market in many new high growth
sectors through various automotive and mobile phone
applications. These new technologies will remain on the higher
end during our investment horizon, allowing FLIR to charge
premium pricing that will drive margin expansion.
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 8
Geopolitical Instability
FLIR’s surveillance segment benefits greatly from geopolitical
tensions as governments ramp up surveillance of borders and
the monitoring of large metropolitan areas following
geopolitical instability domestically and worldwide.
The recent instability resulting from the Syrian civil war and the
subsequent threat from ISIL has resulted in Europe’s worst
refugee crisis since World War II. Germany, who has pledged
to accept the vast majority of refugees has come under
pressure in recent months from threats of terrorists entering the
country through refugee channels.
Frontex, the European Union’s border patrol agency will
receive €332 million up from €143 million last year. Much of the
added budget will go towards border and internal surveillance.
Lepton Technology
Approved Asylum Applications
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Germany Sweden Italy France Holland U.K.
9. Recommendation: BUY
Catalysts Continued
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 9
FLIR’s security segment poses the largest opportunity over our
investment horizon as international markets further their demand
for commercial and retail security products. A large demand
driver has been international airports worldwide adopting
stricter security protocols and demanding premium security
products.
Historically, FLIR has supplied foreign markets through its Lorex
brand which is mainly composed of bundle cameras that had
little to no infrared capabilities. Going forward, the upgrade
cycle from international markets towards higher end products
that include full infrared capabilities will drive demand globally.
Again, this is possible by FLIR’s commitment to innovation and
cost savings throughout its product lines.
Growing Security Expenditure
FLIR is the premium supplier to fringe OEMs that drive
technological innovation in the infrared industry. One of the
most successful segments has been automobile infrared
integration. The firm has been active in developing
relationships with high end manufacturers in order to build a
steady backlog of demand for its products. Beginning in 2006
with BMW, FLIR has expanded its high end automobile OEM
partnerships to include Mercedes, Audi, and Cadillac. FLIR
technology is available only on the highest end models as an
add-on.
Another high growth opportunity is the mobile accessories
segment. With the implementation of Lepton technology, FLIR
has been able to cram the infrared capabilities of a $5,000+
commercial device into a mobile accessory for around $250.
Emerging Segment Growth
Wireless Speakers
Smart Thermostat
Smart Home Security
Domestic Robots
Smart CO Detectors
Smart Lighting 6%
6%
8%
9%
11%
17%
U.S. Homes With Smart Technology
10.
Recommendation: BUY
Risks & Mitigants
Speed of Technology
Dependence on Defense Budgets
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 10
A large portion of revenues are dependent on U.S. government defense spending. Accounting for roughly 20%
of revenues, the Department of Defenses’ appropriations drive demand for FLIR. However, FLIR has moved away
from strictly supplying the government and has diversified its product portfolio to mitigate the risk of a sharp
decrease in defense spending.
International Exposure
Approximately 47% of FLIR’s sales come from overseas, providing exposure to the various risks brought on by
the slowing markets of Europe and Asia. However, the opportunities available in these markets exceed the risk.
By being the premier supplier of surveillance technology to Middle Eastern and European governments, FLIR
will continue to see growth throughout the tumultuous markets it may face.
Macroeconomic Environnent
The performance of the security industry is closely tied to the health of the economy. If the economy goes into a
recession, per capita disposable income decreases, and the unemployment rate increases, less Americans will
be able to afford expensive security systems and high-end visualization solutions. However, FLIR is continually
working to manage its sales mix to include more commercial clients in order to lock in as many long-term
contracts as possible.
FLIR is at the forefront of detection technologies, and in order to maintain its strong market presence, it will need
to remain innovative to be competitive in the future. The firm has historically allocated roughly 8-10% of annual
revenue to R&D and plans to keep this positive relationship well into the future.
Military Firefighting Traffic Diagnostic Tools Mobile
Maritime Man-Portable Hunting Boating
11.
Andrew Teich — President and CEO
Teich has been CEO since May 2013. Previously, he served as a
director for Sensata Technologies Inc. His career in the thermal
imaging industry spans over 30 years. He obtained a B.S. from
Arizona State University and is an alumnus of Harvard Business
School.
Recommendation: BUY
Management Team
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 11
Tom Surran — COO
Surran has been Senior VP and COO for FLIR since January 2014.
He has held positions at TDK Corporation, Headway Technologies,
Inc., and Everex Systems, Inc. He received his B.S. from Xavier
University and an MBA from the University of Chicago.
Shane Harrison — SVP, Corporate Development & Strategy
Harrison has been with FLIR since 2010 after being a VP at Lehman
Brothers in their Global Technology Investment Banking Group. He
also was an Analyst at Goodrich Aerospace and an Auditor at
Deloitte & Touche. He achieved a B.S. from the University of Oregon
and an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Amit Singhi — CFO
Singhi is the firm’s CFO and has been the Senior VP of Finance.
Previously, he worked on the finance team for Ford Motor Company.
His MBA and M.S. in Electrical Engineering Systems are from the
Indian Institute of Technology.
12.
We conducted a sensitivity
analysis on the EV/EBITDA multiple
that drives this model to account
for both adverse and favorable
scenarios that FLIR could face
through 2020, such as demand
fluctuations in its Surveillance
segment. Over the past 6 years,
FLIR’s EV/EBITDA multiple has
been well above 14 times. This
poses a significant upside as the
multiple regresses to a higher
historical average.
Recommendation: BUY
Valuation
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 12
EV/EBITDA Model
We utilized multiple valuation methods to arrive at a target price for 2020. Our first model is an EV/EBITDA
multiple model. FLIR is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple much lower than its three-year historical
average. Its three-year historical average EV/ EBITDA multiple is 13.4 times. We have the multiple expanding
over our investment horizon due to the increase in surveillance demanded by European and Asian countries,
high demand for commercial applications, and higher than expected demand for its emerging market offerings
including mobile and automobile applications. At 18.2 times EBITDA in 2020, FLIR will have a market cap of
roughly $6.5 billion and an equity value per share of $50.93.
13.
A sensitivity analysis was conducted on
the multiple in order to account for a
variety of scenarios the firm could face
through 2020. Over the past 5 years,
FLIR’s P/E multiple has remained within an
average range of around 20. Our estimates
of EPS coupled with multiple expansion
provide a comfortable value proposition.
We used multiple valuation methods to arrive at a target price for 2020. Using three different P/E multiple models,
we gauged the probable returns for FLIR over our five-year investment horizon. FLIR’s P/E is currently
approximately 19, while its three-year average is roughly 26.7. This presents us with an opportunity to buy and is
why we recommend using a P/E expansion model. We expect the multiple to regress back up as a result of more
surveillance spending as well as high growth in segments such as Surveillance and OEM & Emerging Markets.
- In a bull case with expectations for a higher multiple, we expect a 2020 price target of $53.58.
- Assuming a constant multiple and base case earnings growth, we expect a price target of $46.22.
- FLIR offers a favorable risk-reward investment, with a bear case price target of $43.96.
Recommendation: BUY
P/E Model
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 13
14.
We conducted a scenario analysis
on our free cash flow to equity
model to account for changes in
discount rates and terminal values.
Even in our bear case scenario,
FLIR is 26.7% undervalued.
Recommendation: BUY
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Equity Research | March 29, 2016 | NASDAQ: FLIR Analysts: Gino Jo, Dylan Kesterson, Zoe Knapke, Bridget Parsells 14
We used a free cash flow to equity model to value what FLIR is worth today, deriving a terminal value of $53.58
from our P/E model. The model implies the stock is roughly 31% undervalued in our base case scenario. The
model has implied assumptions based on our expectations of the firm, its competitors, and the industry
landscape:
- Top line growth will increase as we observe: a global shift by governments towards surveillance
complementing traditional defense, high growth in emerging technologies including mobile and automobile
applications, and growth in the Security segment.
- Bottom line growth is driven by margin expansion by the wide commercialization of Lepton technology.
- Using a 60-month regression, we arrived at a beta of 1.11. In the long term, stocks regress towards a beta of 1,
therefore, we adjusted beta slightly to 1.09 to accommodate future changes for an appropriate discount rate.