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Financial Modeling for HCI/Cloud
@Twitter
2
3-Tier Infrastructure Lens Perspective
3
Shift perspective to strategic big
picture
Achieve project funding
Help ensure & measure project
success
What is the Objective of an ROI/TCO Analysis?
4
IDC Report: Expenses Related to Virtualization as Percent of Total Cost
33%
80%
66% 20%
1996 2014
Operating
Expenses
Capital Expenses
Source: IDC Worldwide Ratio of Annual Server Opex to Annual Server Capex 2014
Year
Operating expenses are taking over datacenter costs
5
Nutanix Economics
6
Example Only
Traditionally assets must be purchased up front causing
high waste of depreciation
3-Tier Infrastructure Economic Challenges
7
1-Click Simplicity & Financial Enhancement
8
New DT VMs per Year New Nodes per Year
Year 1 1000 8
Year 2 1000 6
Year 3 1000 5
Year 4 1000 4
Year 5 1000 3
Nutanix “Pay as You Grow” Slashes Project Cost
& Maximizes Performance
9
IDC: Administration Time Reduced 71%
10
Nutanix
Acropolis
Hypervisor Savings
11
vSphere AHV
License Cost $3,500/CPU + SNS Inc.
Management Cost vCenter $6,000 + SNS + HW Inc.
Analytics Cost
vRealize Operations
~$1,000/CPU + SNS?
Inc.
DR Cost SRM ~$300/CPU + SNS Inc.
Resiliency
SQL Server or Oracle + HW +
set-up
Inc.
Design Costs Extensive for large deployment Minimal
Business Disruption Costs
Disruptive upgrades & 3rd party
SW increase risk
Very low risk
TCO Variables: vSphere vs. AHV
12
External TCO/ROI Validation
13
TCO: Nutanix vs. Vblock
14
Nutanix Pay-as-Your-Grow Slashes Costs & Risk
Aggregated Financial Metrics
Year Physical
Desktop
Virtual
Desktop
Net
Cash Flow
Without
Staff Costs
Investment - $1,405,404 ($1,405,404) ($1,405,404)
Year 1 $7,840,528 $4,144,415 $3,696,113 $3,042,630
Year 2 $7,840,528 $4,821,823 $3,018,705 $1,719,239
Year 3 $7,840,528 $4,101,510 $3,739,018 $1,793,568
Year 4 $7,840,528 $4,751,831 $3,088,698 $ 680,198
Year 5 $7,840,528 $4,201,693 $3,638,385 $1,230,335
Total $39,202,642 $23,426,676 $15,775,966 $7,060,566
ROI 1123% 502%
Payback 4.6 Months 5.5 Months
IRR 252% 180%
VDI ROI: St. Luke’s Healthcare System
15
St. Luke’s Before/After
16
“I love the new Virtual Desktop! I honestly
think it is THE most successful thing that our
IT department has done in the last 5 years.”
- St. Luke’s physician
St. Luke’s Health System – Brett Taylor
17
County of San Mateo
18
Nutanix Pay-as-Your-Grow Slashes Costs & Risk
Aggregated Financial Metrics
Year
Physical
Servers
Virtual
Servers
Net
Cash Flow
Without
Staff Costs
Investment
-
$ 725,000 ($ 725,000) ($ 725,000)
Year 1 $2,537,600 $ 39,671 $2,497,929 $2,137,929
Year 2 $2,834,400 $1,151,731 $1,682,669 $1,142,669
Year 3 $2,951,200 $ 130,175 $2,821,025 $2,281,025
Year 4 $3,068,000 $ 444,490 $2,623,010 $2,083,010
Year 5 $3,184,800 $ 505,805 $2,678,995 $2,138,995
Total $14,576,000 $ 2,997,373 $11,578,627 $9,058,627
ROI 1597% 1249%
Payback 3.5 Months 4.1 Months
IRR 326% 268%
San Mateo County ROI
Server ROI: County of San Mateo
19
Business Drivers Trump Infrastructure Savings
Business Savings Trump Infrastructure Savings
20
“[Organizations] are realizing that their application infrastructures, which was
designed — in some cases — over 10 years ago, cannot support the demand
for the real-time analytics, development agility, deployment flexibility and
fast reconfiguration of business networks required to successfully compete
in the digital era.“ – Massimo Pezzini, Vice President and Gartner Fellow
(Gartner Press Release April 2015)
Nutanix product
development
Infrastructure Agility Improves Business Profitability
21
83%
Reduce Time Per
Storage Upgrade
51%
Improved Application
Performance
38%
Reduced Time To
Release Applications
$499,560
Additional Revenue
from Improved
Operations
$190,863
Additional Revenue
from Reduced
Downtime
$
$
IDC Validation of Business Savings
22
Tractor Supply Company
23
✓ Agility
✓ Predictable Scale
✓ Low Opex
Revenue Forecast
2015 $6B Run Rate
Public Cloud Comes Closest to the Notion of
Invisible Infrastructure
24
Source: http://www.datacommunitydc.org/blog/2013/01/gce-versus-ec2-a-comparison-of-instance-pricing-
and-characteristics-part-1
Sandy Bridge
8 Core 2.6GHz
16 Hyper
Threads
2 Per Core
44 EC2 Instance
2.75 Per Hyper Thread
Many IT professionals do not fully understand their application’s
utilization before moving to the cloud
EC2 Does not Equal CPU
25
75%
vs
Elasticity Predictability
25%
75% of workloads are predictable
Enterprise Workloads are Heavily Weighted Towards
Predictable Workloads
26
✓ EC2
✓ EBS
✓ EBS w/IOPS
✓ Elastic Load Balancer
✓ Cloud Front
✓ Cloud Search
✓ Cloud Watch Alarming System
Add-on Services
The Gotchas in Cloud
27
Just Migrating to Public Cloud is Expensive
28
AWS: 141% more to run over 5 years
• Total Cash Flow savings of $1,047,903
– Amazon: $1,789,962
– Nutanix: $742,059
• Equipment Supply Company Use Case Example
(Actual workload)
– 68 VMs of C4.4xlarge and M4.xlarge
– Compute turned down during off hours
• Cloud: Enterprise vs. Public
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
$2,000,000
Option 1: AWS Option 2: Nutanix
Total Cost Comparison Over 5 Years
Public Cloud Costs Nutanix On-Prem Cloud Peoples Cost
141%+
Cloud: Enterprise vs. Public
29
60 Months OpEx Spend
Option 1: AWS Option 2: Azure
Option 3:
Nutanix
Option 4:
Nutanix Lease
Users Supported 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000
VM Supported 300 300 300 300
Operating Costs
Depreciation Expense $0 $0 $1,442,005 $1,442,005
Maintenance Amortization $0 $0 $975,274 $975,274
Interest Expense $0 $0 $0 $163,028
Power & Cooling Expense $0 $0 $517,187 $517,187
Data Center Expense $0 $0 $34,286 $34,286
Sub-Total Operating Costs $0 $0 $2,968,752 $3,131,780
People Costs
Full Time Equivelent @ $210K $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000
Sub-Total People Costs $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000
Cloud Costs
Compute $3,666,060 $8,672,400 $0 $0
Storage $1,152,000 $334,200 $0 $0
Bandwidth costs $2,141,925 $963,866 $0 $0
AWS Support charges (one-time) $0 $0 $0 $0
AWS Support charges (monthly) $215,700 $60,000 $0 $0
Sub-Total Cloud Costs $7,175,685 $10,030,466 $0 $0
Total OpEx $15,575,685 $18,430,466 $11,368,752 $11,531,780
Monthly Cost per VM $865 $1,024 $632 $641
Monthly Cost per User $0.43 $0.51 $0.32 $0.32
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
$18,000,000
$20,000,000
Option 1: AWS Option 2: Azure Option 3: Nutanix Option 4: Nutanix
Lease
Total OpEx
Operating Costs People Costs Cloud Costs
Nutanix vs. Cloud Financial Summary
30
92
45
42 41 39 39 38
29 27
22
VMware
Cisco
HP
NetApp
Microsof
t
Dell
Citrix
Nutanix
Apple
EMC
Nutanix has won the NorthFace Scoreboard Award for
Excellence in Service Delivery
2013, 2014 & 2015
Quantifying Support
31
Best Buy
Thank You

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Financial Modeling for HCI/Cloud

  • 1. 1 Financial Modeling for HCI/Cloud @Twitter
  • 3. 3 Shift perspective to strategic big picture Achieve project funding Help ensure & measure project success What is the Objective of an ROI/TCO Analysis?
  • 4. 4 IDC Report: Expenses Related to Virtualization as Percent of Total Cost 33% 80% 66% 20% 1996 2014 Operating Expenses Capital Expenses Source: IDC Worldwide Ratio of Annual Server Opex to Annual Server Capex 2014 Year Operating expenses are taking over datacenter costs
  • 6. 6 Example Only Traditionally assets must be purchased up front causing high waste of depreciation 3-Tier Infrastructure Economic Challenges
  • 7. 7 1-Click Simplicity & Financial Enhancement
  • 8. 8 New DT VMs per Year New Nodes per Year Year 1 1000 8 Year 2 1000 6 Year 3 1000 5 Year 4 1000 4 Year 5 1000 3 Nutanix “Pay as You Grow” Slashes Project Cost & Maximizes Performance
  • 11. 11 vSphere AHV License Cost $3,500/CPU + SNS Inc. Management Cost vCenter $6,000 + SNS + HW Inc. Analytics Cost vRealize Operations ~$1,000/CPU + SNS? Inc. DR Cost SRM ~$300/CPU + SNS Inc. Resiliency SQL Server or Oracle + HW + set-up Inc. Design Costs Extensive for large deployment Minimal Business Disruption Costs Disruptive upgrades & 3rd party SW increase risk Very low risk TCO Variables: vSphere vs. AHV
  • 14. 14 Nutanix Pay-as-Your-Grow Slashes Costs & Risk Aggregated Financial Metrics Year Physical Desktop Virtual Desktop Net Cash Flow Without Staff Costs Investment - $1,405,404 ($1,405,404) ($1,405,404) Year 1 $7,840,528 $4,144,415 $3,696,113 $3,042,630 Year 2 $7,840,528 $4,821,823 $3,018,705 $1,719,239 Year 3 $7,840,528 $4,101,510 $3,739,018 $1,793,568 Year 4 $7,840,528 $4,751,831 $3,088,698 $ 680,198 Year 5 $7,840,528 $4,201,693 $3,638,385 $1,230,335 Total $39,202,642 $23,426,676 $15,775,966 $7,060,566 ROI 1123% 502% Payback 4.6 Months 5.5 Months IRR 252% 180% VDI ROI: St. Luke’s Healthcare System
  • 16. 16 “I love the new Virtual Desktop! I honestly think it is THE most successful thing that our IT department has done in the last 5 years.” - St. Luke’s physician St. Luke’s Health System – Brett Taylor
  • 18. 18 Nutanix Pay-as-Your-Grow Slashes Costs & Risk Aggregated Financial Metrics Year Physical Servers Virtual Servers Net Cash Flow Without Staff Costs Investment - $ 725,000 ($ 725,000) ($ 725,000) Year 1 $2,537,600 $ 39,671 $2,497,929 $2,137,929 Year 2 $2,834,400 $1,151,731 $1,682,669 $1,142,669 Year 3 $2,951,200 $ 130,175 $2,821,025 $2,281,025 Year 4 $3,068,000 $ 444,490 $2,623,010 $2,083,010 Year 5 $3,184,800 $ 505,805 $2,678,995 $2,138,995 Total $14,576,000 $ 2,997,373 $11,578,627 $9,058,627 ROI 1597% 1249% Payback 3.5 Months 4.1 Months IRR 326% 268% San Mateo County ROI Server ROI: County of San Mateo
  • 19. 19 Business Drivers Trump Infrastructure Savings Business Savings Trump Infrastructure Savings
  • 20. 20 “[Organizations] are realizing that their application infrastructures, which was designed — in some cases — over 10 years ago, cannot support the demand for the real-time analytics, development agility, deployment flexibility and fast reconfiguration of business networks required to successfully compete in the digital era.“ – Massimo Pezzini, Vice President and Gartner Fellow (Gartner Press Release April 2015) Nutanix product development Infrastructure Agility Improves Business Profitability
  • 21. 21 83% Reduce Time Per Storage Upgrade 51% Improved Application Performance 38% Reduced Time To Release Applications $499,560 Additional Revenue from Improved Operations $190,863 Additional Revenue from Reduced Downtime $ $ IDC Validation of Business Savings
  • 23. 23 ✓ Agility ✓ Predictable Scale ✓ Low Opex Revenue Forecast 2015 $6B Run Rate Public Cloud Comes Closest to the Notion of Invisible Infrastructure
  • 24. 24 Source: http://www.datacommunitydc.org/blog/2013/01/gce-versus-ec2-a-comparison-of-instance-pricing- and-characteristics-part-1 Sandy Bridge 8 Core 2.6GHz 16 Hyper Threads 2 Per Core 44 EC2 Instance 2.75 Per Hyper Thread Many IT professionals do not fully understand their application’s utilization before moving to the cloud EC2 Does not Equal CPU
  • 25. 25 75% vs Elasticity Predictability 25% 75% of workloads are predictable Enterprise Workloads are Heavily Weighted Towards Predictable Workloads
  • 26. 26 ✓ EC2 ✓ EBS ✓ EBS w/IOPS ✓ Elastic Load Balancer ✓ Cloud Front ✓ Cloud Search ✓ Cloud Watch Alarming System Add-on Services The Gotchas in Cloud
  • 27. 27 Just Migrating to Public Cloud is Expensive
  • 28. 28 AWS: 141% more to run over 5 years • Total Cash Flow savings of $1,047,903 – Amazon: $1,789,962 – Nutanix: $742,059 • Equipment Supply Company Use Case Example (Actual workload) – 68 VMs of C4.4xlarge and M4.xlarge – Compute turned down during off hours • Cloud: Enterprise vs. Public $0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 $2,000,000 Option 1: AWS Option 2: Nutanix Total Cost Comparison Over 5 Years Public Cloud Costs Nutanix On-Prem Cloud Peoples Cost 141%+ Cloud: Enterprise vs. Public
  • 29. 29 60 Months OpEx Spend Option 1: AWS Option 2: Azure Option 3: Nutanix Option 4: Nutanix Lease Users Supported 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000 VM Supported 300 300 300 300 Operating Costs Depreciation Expense $0 $0 $1,442,005 $1,442,005 Maintenance Amortization $0 $0 $975,274 $975,274 Interest Expense $0 $0 $0 $163,028 Power & Cooling Expense $0 $0 $517,187 $517,187 Data Center Expense $0 $0 $34,286 $34,286 Sub-Total Operating Costs $0 $0 $2,968,752 $3,131,780 People Costs Full Time Equivelent @ $210K $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000 Sub-Total People Costs $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000 Cloud Costs Compute $3,666,060 $8,672,400 $0 $0 Storage $1,152,000 $334,200 $0 $0 Bandwidth costs $2,141,925 $963,866 $0 $0 AWS Support charges (one-time) $0 $0 $0 $0 AWS Support charges (monthly) $215,700 $60,000 $0 $0 Sub-Total Cloud Costs $7,175,685 $10,030,466 $0 $0 Total OpEx $15,575,685 $18,430,466 $11,368,752 $11,531,780 Monthly Cost per VM $865 $1,024 $632 $641 Monthly Cost per User $0.43 $0.51 $0.32 $0.32 $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $14,000,000 $16,000,000 $18,000,000 $20,000,000 Option 1: AWS Option 2: Azure Option 3: Nutanix Option 4: Nutanix Lease Total OpEx Operating Costs People Costs Cloud Costs Nutanix vs. Cloud Financial Summary
  • 30. 30 92 45 42 41 39 39 38 29 27 22 VMware Cisco HP NetApp Microsof t Dell Citrix Nutanix Apple EMC Nutanix has won the NorthFace Scoreboard Award for Excellence in Service Delivery 2013, 2014 & 2015 Quantifying Support