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The document analyzes economic trends and financial sector reforms in China, providing background data and scenarios for international investors. It includes over 20 charts examining topics such as China's GDP growth, contributions to growth, trade balances, investment trends, commodity imports and exports, labor markets, household savings rates, and banking sector reforms. The goal is to assess opportunities in China's evolving financial system for international investors.

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Economic Trends and Evolution of Chinese Financial Sector Reforms: Scenarios and Opportunities for International Investors BACKGROUND DATA Prepared by Franco Fornasari f.fornasari@Valuetreepartners.com Bethesda, 14-Jan-2013
FONTI – DATA SOURCES A-CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri, The Dragon Index, November 2012; ADBI, Asian Development Bank Institute, Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Working Paper 366, 2012; Bloomberg News, China Picks Wenzhou for Small-Business Funding Experiment, March 28th, 2012; Caixin Media, Zhou, Xiaochuan, “Special Interview—everything about the renminbi”, Century Weekly, January 2, 2012; CIC, China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011; CICC, China International Capital Corporation Ltd., “China Economy Research”, November 6, 2012; CSEC (China Securities Regulatory Commission), Annual Report 2011; Euromoney – Bank of China, “The 2012 Euromoney Guide to China Cash Management”, June 2012; Euromeney – RBS, Renminbi convergence, is it inevitable and what are the risks? May 2012; Financial Times, Kathrin Hille and Rahul Jacob, “Beyond the conveyor belt”, October 15, 2012; Financial Times, Neil Buckley, “Beijing Targets European Shift”, November 9, 2012; Financial Times, China Special Report, December 12, 2012; FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012; Global Finance, Laurence Neville, China in Europe, May 2012; Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, “China: Cooling off: The drivers and implications of CNY hot money outflows”; October 8, 2012; Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economic Analyst, “China shifting to a lower gear”, N.12/16, September 20, 2012; Garcia-Herrero Alicia, D.Santabarbara, “Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform”, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market and Internationalization of the RMB, Helsinki, September 17-18, 2012; HKIMR (HONG KONG INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY RESEARCH), Dong He, Renminbi Internationalization: A Primer; July, 31st, 2012; ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012; IMF, Country Report No. 12/ 195 – People Republic of China – 2012 Article IV Consultation, July 2012; IMF - World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment Report, 2011; IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012; IMF- G20, People’s Republic of China, Sustainability Report 2011;
IMF, Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, “Investment-led Growth in China: Glogbal Spillovers”, IMF WP 12/267, September 2012 IMF, Asfid Ahuja et Al., “An End to China Imbalances?”, Working Paper 12/100, April 2012; IMF, Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, “The RMB Internationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages”, WP 12/133, May 2012; IMF, Shaun K.Roche, “China’s Impact on World Commodities Markets”, IMF Wp 12/115; March 2012; Institutional Investor, Neil Sen,”China Spreads its Wings”, September 2012; JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20, 2012; Oliver Wyman, “The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking”, Marsh-McLennan Co., London, 2012; Oksanen, H. (2012), “Re-pegging the renminbi to a basket: issues and implications”, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.x UNIDO, Breaking In and Moving Up: New Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income Countries, Industrial Development Report 2009; Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “China cracks the whip over informal lending”, October 17, 2011; Wall Street Journal, Dinny McMahon, “China Private Funds Bolster Local Government Projects, Raise Risks”, November 10-11, 2012; Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “Lanscape Shifts for China Banks”, November 12, 2012; Wall Street Journal, Tom Orlik, Bob Davis, “Xi Inherits an Economy that needs Work, November 13, 2012; Wall Street Journal, Currency Trading, “China Finds a Friend Outside”, November 30, 2012; Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, January 7th 2013 Wall Street Journal, “China:Hidder Risks of Shadow Finance”, November 27, 2012 Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013 World Bank – DRC of the State Council, People’s Republic of China, “China 2030”, Washington,2011; World Bank, Global Financial Development Report 2013, Rethinking the Role of State in Finance, Washington, 2012; Yi Gang, Renminbi Exchange Rates and relevant Institutional Factors, Cato Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2, Spring-Summer 2008; Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of the Chinese patent explosion, 27 September 2011
4 Chart 1: Crescita Reale del PIL e Inflazione nel Lungo Termine Long-Term GDP Growth and Inflation JPMorgan Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
5 Chart 2: Tassi di Crescita del PIL; Graduatoria del PIL ($ Tril); PIL Pro-capite GDP Growth; Global GDP Rankings ($ Trillion); Per-capita GDP Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
6 Chart 3-A: Contributi delle Componenti del PIL alla Crescita Contributions of GDP Components to Growth Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
7 Chart 3-B: Dinamica di Esportazioni e Investimenti Immobiliari Dynamics of Export and Real Estate Investment Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
8 Chart 3-C: Saldo di Conto Corrente - Bilancia dei Pagamenti: Proiezioni IMF – Art. IV Consultations 2012 / BOP-Current Account Balance: IMF Projections Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
9 Chart 4: Esportazioni Totali e per Mercati di Destinazione 2011-12 Export Volumes and By Market of Destination 2011-12 Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
10 Chart 5: Crescita degli Investimenti Fissi Privati Industriali e Fatturato Private Fixed Asset Investment and Sales Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
11 Chart 6: Composizione degli Investimenti Fissi Totali e Industriali Fixed Assets Investment by Sector and % of Manufacturing Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
12 Chart 6 - Bis: Capacita’ Produttiva manifatturiera - Veicoli Leggeri Production Capacity Build Up in Manufacturing - Light Vehicles Fonte / Source: Financial Times, 1st January 2013 Car production in China in 2013 is likely to be 10 times higher than in 2000 – when its share of global auto manufacturing was just 3.5 per cent as opposed to a likely 23.8 per cent in 2013. Scott Corwin, an automotive expert at the Booz & Co consultancy, said that even with relatively strong growth projected in vehicle output and demand in both the US and China, “these markets alone won’t do much to pull the whole world forward” .
13 Chart 7: Composizione delle Importazioni per Prodotto Import Composition by Product Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
14 Chart 8: Economie più Intergrate Commercialmente con l’Industria Cinese Economies with Highest Trade Integration with China Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
15 Chart 9: Capacità Utilizzata Media dell’Economia Cinese - Stime IMF Chinese Economy Average Capacity Utilization – IMF Estim. Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
16 Chart 10: Popolazione Attiva per Età - Rapporto Capitale Prodotto Active Population by Age Groups – Incremental Capital-Output Ratio Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
17 Chart 11: Crescita Salariale, CLUPI e Margini nel Manifatturiero Wage Growth, Unit Labor Cost and Industrial Profit Margins Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
18 Chart 12: Occupazione per Settore e Urbanizzazione Employment by Sector and Urbanization Rate Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
19 Chart 13: Stima del “Punto di Svolta di Lewis” – i.e., Azzeramento dell’Attuale Eccesso di Offerta sul Mercato del Lavoro Estimated “Lewis Turning Point” – i.e., Elimination of the Current Surplus in the Labor Market Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
20 Chart 14: Divari nei Salari Reali in Alcune Provincie Cinesi Real Wage Dispersion Across Provinces Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
21 Chart 15: Risparmio per Settore, Reddito Disponibile e Investimenti Saving by Sector, Disposable Income, Investment Fonte / Source: G20 - PRC Sustainability Report 2011
22 Chart 16: Reddito Disponibile e Consumi delle Famiglie, Investimenti Household Disposable Income & Consumption, Investment Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
23 Chart 17: Spesa Sociale per Istruzione, Tasso Reale sui Depositi Public Spending on Education, Real Interest Rate on Deposits Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
24 Chart 18: Dinamica dei Depositi Presso il Sistema Bancario Dynamics of Bank Deposits Fonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
25 Chart 19:Peso delle Importazioni Cinesi di Commodities sul Commercio Mondiale; Consumi Pro-capite di Energia e Metalli; China’s Share of Global Commodity Trade; Per-capita Consumption of Energy and Metals Fonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012
26 Chart 20: Le Ragioni di Scambio della Cina e Confronti Internazionali China Terms of Trade and International Comparisons Fonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012 Fonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012; IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012
27 Chart 21:Confronti Internazionali dei Prezzi di Carburanti e Acqua Water and Gas Prices – International Comparisons Fonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012; IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012
28 Chart 22-A: Motori della Crescita Cinese / Engines of Chinese Growth Fonte / Source: Fan Zhigang, ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, 2012
29 Chart 22-B: Confronti Internazionali di Sentieri di Crescita “Trappola del Reddito Medio”/ Comparative Growth Paths & “Middle Income Trap”
30 A B C D E Chart 22-C: Ipotesi Neo-Strutturalista sulla Crescita/ The “Neo Structuralist” Hypothesis on Growth What a country manufactures matters for its growth. Both diversity and sophistication in industry are drivers of faster growth. Each group of countries follows a “transition path” A: Slow-growing low-and-middle-income countries: Production intensities narrowed towards the low to mid-range of product sophistication, as they exited sectors of high sophistication. B: Fast-growing low-income countries diversified their manufacturing base and raised their level of product sophistication, increasing production intensity in both low- and high-sophistication products. C: Slow-growing middle income countries lagged behind their more successful middle-income rivals in such sectors as machinery and electrical machinery. D: Fast growing middle income countries shifted strongly in the direction of more sophisticated products and reduced their production intensity of lower-sophistication products to about the world average. At the same time, they increased the intensity of production of highly sophisticated goods to about 60 per cent of the global average, driven by a substantial increase in the intensity of machinery production. They also maintained a strong orientation towards production of electrical machinery. Fonte / Source: UNIDO - Industrial Development Report 2009, Breaking In and Moving Up: New Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income Countries
31 A B C D Chart 22-D: Le Imprese Cinesi piu’ vicine alla Frontiera dell’Innovazione Chinese Companies are Approaching the Innovation Frontier The number of domestic patent filings in China increased at an annual rate of 35% from 1999 to 2006. A new dataset of 20,000 Chinese manufacturing firms shows that the explosion has been ignited by the ICT equipment sector. Thus,there is no evidence of a wider technological take-off among Chinese companies, which is confined to a limited range of industries and even within these industries is undertaken by very few, albeit highly active, firms. The analysis of the patenting decision and the patent productivity of Chinese firms reveals that firms patenting both in China and the US, which account for the overwhelming share of both SIPO and USPTO filings by companies registered in China; Firms are very large, relatively young, more R&D-intensive than their peers, and strongly (but not exclusively) export- oriented – in short, true global players. A substantial share of patents covers product innovation albeit of relatively low-tech character. Process innovations and combinations of product and process innovation covered by patents held by these companies appear to be technologically more innovative and potentially valuable. Hence, these few, patent-active companies are (at least to some extent) innovative companies highly integrated into the global economy. Fonte / Source: Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of the Chinese patent explosion, 27 September 2011 http://www.voxeu.org/article/china-imitator-innovator
32 Chart 23: Architettura del Sistema Finanziario / Financial System Archtecture Fonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
33 Chart 24: Riforme del Sistema Finanziario al 2010 / Financial Reform up to 2010 Fonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
34 Chart 25: Tassi di Interesse Bancari e Inflazione (2005-2012) Bank Interest Rates and Inflation (2005-2012) Fonte / Source: Bert Gochet, JPMorgan-Chase
35 Chart 26: Margini di Profitto Minimi e Distribuzione dei Tassi sui Prestiti Bank Interest Margin and Distribution of Effective Lending Rates Fonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012
36 Chart 27: Struttura Attività Finanziarie Totali – Confronti Internazionali Total Financial Assets Composition – International Comparisons Fonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011; Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages,IMF WP 12/133, May 2012
37 Chart 28: Flussi di Credito all’Economia - 2005-2012 Credit Flows to the Economy – 2005-2012 A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012 Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
38 Chart 29: Tassi di Riferimento e Tassi Medi sui Prestiti Bancari Benchmark and Average Bank Lending Rates Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
39 Box 1: La Riforma 2012 dei Tassi di Interesse / 2012 Interest Rate Reform Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
40 Chart 30-A: Il Mercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking Market Fonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co., 2012
41 Chart 30-B: Il Mercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking Market Fonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co., 2012
42 Chart 31: Gli Investimenti Esteri nel Sistema Finanziario Cinese Foreign Direct Investment into the Chinese Financial Sector Fonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012
43 Chart 31 – Bis : Le Banche Estere sono il 2% degli Assets del Settore Foreign Banks are 2% of the Banking Sector Assets Foreign banks have long targeted China as a key market for future growth, but they are still niche players, accounting for less than 2% of the banking sector's total assets, according to a KPMG Report Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, 26-Sep-12
44 Chart 32:Indicatori Finanziari del Sistema Banca / Selected Banking Indicators Fonte / Source:: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012; IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
45 Chart 32 Bis: Attività Estere del Sistema Bancario Cinese Foreign Assets of Chinese Banks The Value of Overseas Assets and Pretax Profits show that the “Big Four banks” remain firmly dependent on their home operations. Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal / China Scope Financial , 27-Nov.12 Note: At the Exchange rate of 6.13 RMB per US$, 1 Trillion of RMB Assets = 163 Million US$
46 Chart 33:Emissione di Obbligazioni Imprese Non-Finanziarie e Crescita Credito all’Economia / Issuance of Non-Financial Corporate Debt and Growth of Total Credit Components Fonte / Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012
47 Chart 34:Finanziamenti del Sistema Bancario Ombra e Trusts Cinesi Shadow Banking Finance: Trust Loans, Bonds, and AUM Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 10-11, 2012 China Private Funds Bolster Local Government Projects, Raise Risks; and November 27, 2012, “China: Hidden Risks of Shadow Finance;
48 Chart 35-A:Il Sistema Bancario Ombra – Confronti Internazionali The Shadow Banking System – International Comparisons Fonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012
49 Chart 35-B:Il Sistema Bancario Ombra: Crescita di Altri Intermediari The Shadow Banking System: Growth of Other Fin. Intermediaries Fonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012
50 Chart 36:Funzioni di una Moneta di Riserva Dimensions of an International Currency Fonte/ Source: Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
51 Chart 37:Transazioni di Conto Corrente Regolate in RMB Cross-Border Trade Settled in RMB Fonte/ Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012 ; Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
52 Chart 37-Bis: Linee di Credito in RMB (CNY) fra Banche Centrali e la PBOC fino al 1 Trim 2012/ Swop Lines in RMB (CNY) between the Peoples Bank of China and Other Central Banks up to the 1st Quarter 2012 Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;
53 Chart 38:Regolazione di Pagamenti di Importazioni Cinesi via Hong Kong RMB Settlement of Import of Goods from China via Hong Kong Fonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
54 Chart 39:Tasso RMB/US$ Onshore (CNY), Offshore (CNH) RMB-US$ Exchange Rates Onshore (CNY) and Offshore (CNH) Fonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
55 Chart 40: Rivalutazione del RMB Implicita sul Mercato Onshore e Offshore (Non- Deliverable Forward – NDF) / Implied 1-Year Appreciation of the RMB on Onshore and Offshore Markets (NDF) Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art..IV Consultation, July 2012
56 Chart 41:Dim Bond - Emissioni di Titoli in RMB (CNH) e Curva dei Rendimenti dei Titoli del Debito Cinese Onshore (CNY) e Offshore (CNH) / Dim Bond Issuance of RMB Bonds, Government Bond Yield Onshore (CNY) & Offshore (CNH) Fonte / Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012
57 Chart 41-Bis: Mercato Offshore Hong Kong in RMB (CNH) / Hong Kong Offshore Market in RMB (CNH) Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;
58 Chart 42:“Banda di Fluttuazione” allargata, Parità Centrale e Tassi di Cambio RMB/US$ - Aprile-Giugno 2012 / Widened “Fluctuation Band”, Central Parity and Closing Exchange Rate RMB-US$ Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012
59 Chart 43:Cambio RMB/US$ e Tasso Nominale Effettivo del RMB verso le altre valute (NEER) / Bilateral RMB/US$ Rate and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate of RMB (NEER) Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012
60 Chart 44 :Tassi di Cambio RMB rispetto alle principali valute 1994-2012 / Bilateral Exchange rate of RMB vis-a-vis the Main Currencies 1994-2012 Legenda: Indice espresso in unità di RMB per valuta indicata, quindi l’abbassamento (aumento) della linea denota deprezzamento (apprezzamento) della valuta indicate rispetto al RMB Fonte / Source: Oksanen, H. (2012), Re-pegging the Renminbi to a basket: issues and implications. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.x
61 Chart 45: Movimenti di Capitali a Breve e Differenziale Tassi di Interesse / Hot Money Capital Flows and Interest Rate Differentials Fonte / Source : Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, China, “Cooling off: The drivers and implications of CNY hot money outflows”, October 8, 2012
62 Chart 46: Variazione Fondi in Valuta nel Bilancio della Banca Centrale e delle Banche ( i.e., Interventi sul Mercato dei Cambi) / Variations in FX Funds Held by the Central Bank and Commercial Banks (i.e., Interventions in the FX Market) Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research, November 6th, 2012
63 Chart 47:Cambio RMB-US$ nel 2012 / Exchange Rate RMB-US$ in 2012 Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research, November 6th, 2012 Legenda: Indice espresso in US$ per unità di RMB, quindi l’abbassamento (aumento) della linea denota deprezzamento (apprezzamento) del RMB rispetto al US$
64 Chart 48: Misure di Apertura del Conto Capitale e “Triangolo Impossibile” / Measures to Open the capital Account; the “Impossible Trinity” Fonte / Source: ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012; Fonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012
65 Chart 49:Portafoglio di China Investment Corporation 2011 / Investment Portfolio of CIC 2011 Fonte / Source: China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011
66 Chart 49–Bis: Investmenti Cinesi di SOEs e Privati in USA / Investment Flows of Chinese SOEs and Private Investors into the USA Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013
67 Chart 50: Indice degli Investimenti Cinesi Verso l’Estero (ODI) Index of Chinese Direct Investment Abroad (ODI) Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;
68 Tav. 50-Bis: Tuttavia, I dati mostrano una riduzione di ODI Cinese nell’Area Euro / However Chinese FDI outflows to the Euro Area show a decline in 2012 Fonte / Source: Mark Thompson fDiMagazine, December 14, 2012 According to greenfield investment monitor fDi Markets, there have been 244 Chinese FDI projects recorded between January and October 2012, a significant decline from the same period in 2011, when there were 349 projects. This means that, unless there is a substantial uptick in outward investment in the final two months of the year, 2012 will be China's worst year for outbound FDI since 2008, when 282 projects were recorded. One possible reason for the decline is the crisis in Europe. Historically, Germany has been the main destination for Chinese FDI, accounting for 12% of all outgoing projects between January 2003 and October 2012. In 2011, there were 80 Chinese investments in Germany, while in 2012 so far there has been just 11 such investments. Investment in Hong Kong has increased in 2012, however, with twice the number of Chinese FDI projects recorded in the city-state compared to 2011. Chinese FDI into the UK and the US has remained relatively stable compared to the previous year.
69 Chart 51: Composizione Investimenti Cinesi verso l’Estero - 2012 Composition of Chinese Outward Direct Investment (ODI)- 2012 Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;
70 Chart 52: Opportunità di Investimento in RMB per Non-Residenti / Investment Opportunities in RMB for Foreign Corporates & Investors Fonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012
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Fic en it-chart book presentation_14-jan-13

  • 1.
    Economic Trends andEvolution of Chinese Financial Sector Reforms: Scenarios and Opportunities for International Investors BACKGROUND DATA Prepared by Franco Fornasari f.fornasari@Valuetreepartners.com Bethesda, 14-Jan-2013
  • 2.
    FONTI – DATASOURCES A-CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri, The Dragon Index, November 2012; ADBI, Asian Development Bank Institute, Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Working Paper 366, 2012; Bloomberg News, China Picks Wenzhou for Small-Business Funding Experiment, March 28th, 2012; Caixin Media, Zhou, Xiaochuan, “Special Interview—everything about the renminbi”, Century Weekly, January 2, 2012; CIC, China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011; CICC, China International Capital Corporation Ltd., “China Economy Research”, November 6, 2012; CSEC (China Securities Regulatory Commission), Annual Report 2011; Euromoney – Bank of China, “The 2012 Euromoney Guide to China Cash Management”, June 2012; Euromeney – RBS, Renminbi convergence, is it inevitable and what are the risks? May 2012; Financial Times, Kathrin Hille and Rahul Jacob, “Beyond the conveyor belt”, October 15, 2012; Financial Times, Neil Buckley, “Beijing Targets European Shift”, November 9, 2012; Financial Times, China Special Report, December 12, 2012; FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012; Global Finance, Laurence Neville, China in Europe, May 2012; Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, “China: Cooling off: The drivers and implications of CNY hot money outflows”; October 8, 2012; Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economic Analyst, “China shifting to a lower gear”, N.12/16, September 20, 2012; Garcia-Herrero Alicia, D.Santabarbara, “Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform”, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market and Internationalization of the RMB, Helsinki, September 17-18, 2012; HKIMR (HONG KONG INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY RESEARCH), Dong He, Renminbi Internationalization: A Primer; July, 31st, 2012; ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012; IMF, Country Report No. 12/ 195 – People Republic of China – 2012 Article IV Consultation, July 2012; IMF - World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment Report, 2011; IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012; IMF- G20, People’s Republic of China, Sustainability Report 2011;
  • 3.
    IMF, Ashvin Auhia, Mahlar Nabar, “Investment-led Growth in China: Glogbal Spillovers”, IMF WP 12/267, September 2012 IMF, Asfid Ahuja et Al., “An End to China Imbalances?”, Working Paper 12/100, April 2012; IMF, Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, “The RMB Internationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages”, WP 12/133, May 2012; IMF, Shaun K.Roche, “China’s Impact on World Commodities Markets”, IMF Wp 12/115; March 2012; Institutional Investor, Neil Sen,”China Spreads its Wings”, September 2012; JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20, 2012; Oliver Wyman, “The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking”, Marsh-McLennan Co., London, 2012; Oksanen, H. (2012), “Re-pegging the renminbi to a basket: issues and implications”, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.x UNIDO, Breaking In and Moving Up: New Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income Countries, Industrial Development Report 2009; Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “China cracks the whip over informal lending”, October 17, 2011; Wall Street Journal, Dinny McMahon, “China Private Funds Bolster Local Government Projects, Raise Risks”, November 10-11, 2012; Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “Lanscape Shifts for China Banks”, November 12, 2012; Wall Street Journal, Tom Orlik, Bob Davis, “Xi Inherits an Economy that needs Work, November 13, 2012; Wall Street Journal, Currency Trading, “China Finds a Friend Outside”, November 30, 2012; Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, January 7th 2013 Wall Street Journal, “China:Hidder Risks of Shadow Finance”, November 27, 2012 Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013 World Bank – DRC of the State Council, People’s Republic of China, “China 2030”, Washington,2011; World Bank, Global Financial Development Report 2013, Rethinking the Role of State in Finance, Washington, 2012; Yi Gang, Renminbi Exchange Rates and relevant Institutional Factors, Cato Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2, Spring-Summer 2008; Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of the Chinese patent explosion, 27 September 2011
  • 4.
    4 Chart 1: CrescitaReale del PIL e Inflazione nel Lungo Termine Long-Term GDP Growth and Inflation JPMorgan Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 5.
    5 Chart 2: Tassidi Crescita del PIL; Graduatoria del PIL ($ Tril); PIL Pro-capite GDP Growth; Global GDP Rankings ($ Trillion); Per-capita GDP Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  • 6.
    6 Chart 3-A: Contributidelle Componenti del PIL alla Crescita Contributions of GDP Components to Growth Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  • 7.
    7 Chart 3-B: Dinamicadi Esportazioni e Investimenti Immobiliari Dynamics of Export and Real Estate Investment Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  • 8.
    8 Chart 3-C: Saldodi Conto Corrente - Bilancia dei Pagamenti: Proiezioni IMF – Art. IV Consultations 2012 / BOP-Current Account Balance: IMF Projections Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 9.
    9 Chart 4: EsportazioniTotali e per Mercati di Destinazione 2011-12 Export Volumes and By Market of Destination 2011-12 Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 10.
    10 Chart 5: Crescitadegli Investimenti Fissi Privati Industriali e Fatturato Private Fixed Asset Investment and Sales Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  • 11.
    11 Chart 6: Composizionedegli Investimenti Fissi Totali e Industriali Fixed Assets Investment by Sector and % of Manufacturing Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  • 12.
    12 Chart 6 -Bis: Capacita’ Produttiva manifatturiera - Veicoli Leggeri Production Capacity Build Up in Manufacturing - Light Vehicles Fonte / Source: Financial Times, 1st January 2013 Car production in China in 2013 is likely to be 10 times higher than in 2000 – when its share of global auto manufacturing was just 3.5 per cent as opposed to a likely 23.8 per cent in 2013. Scott Corwin, an automotive expert at the Booz & Co consultancy, said that even with relatively strong growth projected in vehicle output and demand in both the US and China, “these markets alone won’t do much to pull the whole world forward” .
  • 13.
    13 Chart 7: Composizionedelle Importazioni per Prodotto Import Composition by Product Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  • 14.
    14 Chart 8: Economiepiù Intergrate Commercialmente con l’Industria Cinese Economies with Highest Trade Integration with China Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  • 15.
    15 Chart 9: CapacitàUtilizzata Media dell’Economia Cinese - Stime IMF Chinese Economy Average Capacity Utilization – IMF Estim. Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 16.
    16 Chart 10: PopolazioneAttiva per Età - Rapporto Capitale Prodotto Active Population by Age Groups – Incremental Capital-Output Ratio Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  • 17.
    17 Chart 11: CrescitaSalariale, CLUPI e Margini nel Manifatturiero Wage Growth, Unit Labor Cost and Industrial Profit Margins Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 18.
    18 Chart 12: Occupazioneper Settore e Urbanizzazione Employment by Sector and Urbanization Rate Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 19.
    19 Chart 13: Stimadel “Punto di Svolta di Lewis” – i.e., Azzeramento dell’Attuale Eccesso di Offerta sul Mercato del Lavoro Estimated “Lewis Turning Point” – i.e., Elimination of the Current Surplus in the Labor Market Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 20.
    20 Chart 14: Divarinei Salari Reali in Alcune Provincie Cinesi Real Wage Dispersion Across Provinces Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  • 21.
    21 Chart 15: Risparmioper Settore, Reddito Disponibile e Investimenti Saving by Sector, Disposable Income, Investment Fonte / Source: G20 - PRC Sustainability Report 2011
  • 22.
    22 Chart 16: RedditoDisponibile e Consumi delle Famiglie, Investimenti Household Disposable Income & Consumption, Investment Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  • 23.
    23 Chart 17: SpesaSociale per Istruzione, Tasso Reale sui Depositi Public Spending on Education, Real Interest Rate on Deposits Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  • 24.
    24 Chart 18: Dinamicadei Depositi Presso il Sistema Bancario Dynamics of Bank Deposits Fonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  • 25.
    25 Chart 19:Peso delleImportazioni Cinesi di Commodities sul Commercio Mondiale; Consumi Pro-capite di Energia e Metalli; China’s Share of Global Commodity Trade; Per-capita Consumption of Energy and Metals Fonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012
  • 26.
    26 Chart 20: LeRagioni di Scambio della Cina e Confronti Internazionali China Terms of Trade and International Comparisons Fonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012 Fonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012; IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012
  • 27.
    27 Chart 21:Confronti Internazionalidei Prezzi di Carburanti e Acqua Water and Gas Prices – International Comparisons Fonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012; IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012
  • 28.
    28 Chart 22-A: Motoridella Crescita Cinese / Engines of Chinese Growth Fonte / Source: Fan Zhigang, ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, 2012
  • 29.
    29 Chart 22-B: ConfrontiInternazionali di Sentieri di Crescita “Trappola del Reddito Medio”/ Comparative Growth Paths & “Middle Income Trap”
  • 30.
    30 A B C D E Chart 22-C: IpotesiNeo-Strutturalista sulla Crescita/ The “Neo Structuralist” Hypothesis on Growth What a country manufactures matters for its growth. Both diversity and sophistication in industry are drivers of faster growth. Each group of countries follows a “transition path” A: Slow-growing low-and-middle-income countries: Production intensities narrowed towards the low to mid-range of product sophistication, as they exited sectors of high sophistication. B: Fast-growing low-income countries diversified their manufacturing base and raised their level of product sophistication, increasing production intensity in both low- and high-sophistication products. C: Slow-growing middle income countries lagged behind their more successful middle-income rivals in such sectors as machinery and electrical machinery. D: Fast growing middle income countries shifted strongly in the direction of more sophisticated products and reduced their production intensity of lower-sophistication products to about the world average. At the same time, they increased the intensity of production of highly sophisticated goods to about 60 per cent of the global average, driven by a substantial increase in the intensity of machinery production. They also maintained a strong orientation towards production of electrical machinery. Fonte / Source: UNIDO - Industrial Development Report 2009, Breaking In and Moving Up: New Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income Countries
  • 31.
    31 A B C D Chart 22-D: LeImprese Cinesi piu’ vicine alla Frontiera dell’Innovazione Chinese Companies are Approaching the Innovation Frontier The number of domestic patent filings in China increased at an annual rate of 35% from 1999 to 2006. A new dataset of 20,000 Chinese manufacturing firms shows that the explosion has been ignited by the ICT equipment sector. Thus,there is no evidence of a wider technological take-off among Chinese companies, which is confined to a limited range of industries and even within these industries is undertaken by very few, albeit highly active, firms. The analysis of the patenting decision and the patent productivity of Chinese firms reveals that firms patenting both in China and the US, which account for the overwhelming share of both SIPO and USPTO filings by companies registered in China; Firms are very large, relatively young, more R&D-intensive than their peers, and strongly (but not exclusively) export- oriented – in short, true global players. A substantial share of patents covers product innovation albeit of relatively low-tech character. Process innovations and combinations of product and process innovation covered by patents held by these companies appear to be technologically more innovative and potentially valuable. Hence, these few, patent-active companies are (at least to some extent) innovative companies highly integrated into the global economy. Fonte / Source: Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of the Chinese patent explosion, 27 September 2011 http://www.voxeu.org/article/china-imitator-innovator
  • 32.
    32 Chart 23: Architetturadel Sistema Finanziario / Financial System Archtecture Fonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  • 33.
    33 Chart 24: Riformedel Sistema Finanziario al 2010 / Financial Reform up to 2010 Fonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  • 34.
    34 Chart 25: Tassidi Interesse Bancari e Inflazione (2005-2012) Bank Interest Rates and Inflation (2005-2012) Fonte / Source: Bert Gochet, JPMorgan-Chase
  • 35.
    35 Chart 26: Marginidi Profitto Minimi e Distribuzione dei Tassi sui Prestiti Bank Interest Margin and Distribution of Effective Lending Rates Fonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012
  • 36.
    36 Chart 27: StrutturaAttività Finanziarie Totali – Confronti Internazionali Total Financial Assets Composition – International Comparisons Fonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011; Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages,IMF WP 12/133, May 2012
  • 37.
    37 Chart 28: Flussidi Credito all’Economia - 2005-2012 Credit Flows to the Economy – 2005-2012 A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012 Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
  • 38.
    38 Chart 29: Tassidi Riferimento e Tassi Medi sui Prestiti Bancari Benchmark and Average Bank Lending Rates Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
  • 39.
    39 Box 1: LaRiforma 2012 dei Tassi di Interesse / 2012 Interest Rate Reform Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
  • 40.
    40 Chart 30-A: IlMercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking Market Fonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co., 2012
  • 41.
    41 Chart 30-B: IlMercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking Market Fonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co., 2012
  • 42.
    42 Chart 31: GliInvestimenti Esteri nel Sistema Finanziario Cinese Foreign Direct Investment into the Chinese Financial Sector Fonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012
  • 43.
    43 Chart 31 –Bis : Le Banche Estere sono il 2% degli Assets del Settore Foreign Banks are 2% of the Banking Sector Assets Foreign banks have long targeted China as a key market for future growth, but they are still niche players, accounting for less than 2% of the banking sector's total assets, according to a KPMG Report Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, 26-Sep-12
  • 44.
    44 Chart 32:Indicatori Finanziaridel Sistema Banca / Selected Banking Indicators Fonte / Source:: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012; IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  • 45.
    45 Chart 32 Bis:Attività Estere del Sistema Bancario Cinese Foreign Assets of Chinese Banks The Value of Overseas Assets and Pretax Profits show that the “Big Four banks” remain firmly dependent on their home operations. Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal / China Scope Financial , 27-Nov.12 Note: At the Exchange rate of 6.13 RMB per US$, 1 Trillion of RMB Assets = 163 Million US$
  • 46.
    46 Chart 33:Emissione diObbligazioni Imprese Non-Finanziarie e Crescita Credito all’Economia / Issuance of Non-Financial Corporate Debt and Growth of Total Credit Components Fonte / Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012
  • 47.
    47 Chart 34:Finanziamenti delSistema Bancario Ombra e Trusts Cinesi Shadow Banking Finance: Trust Loans, Bonds, and AUM Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 10-11, 2012 China Private Funds Bolster Local Government Projects, Raise Risks; and November 27, 2012, “China: Hidden Risks of Shadow Finance;
  • 48.
    48 Chart 35-A:Il SistemaBancario Ombra – Confronti Internazionali The Shadow Banking System – International Comparisons Fonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012
  • 49.
    49 Chart 35-B:Il SistemaBancario Ombra: Crescita di Altri Intermediari The Shadow Banking System: Growth of Other Fin. Intermediaries Fonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012
  • 50.
    50 Chart 36:Funzioni diuna Moneta di Riserva Dimensions of an International Currency Fonte/ Source: Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
  • 51.
    51 Chart 37:Transazioni diConto Corrente Regolate in RMB Cross-Border Trade Settled in RMB Fonte/ Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012 ; Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
  • 52.
    52 Chart 37-Bis: Lineedi Credito in RMB (CNY) fra Banche Centrali e la PBOC fino al 1 Trim 2012/ Swop Lines in RMB (CNY) between the Peoples Bank of China and Other Central Banks up to the 1st Quarter 2012 Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;
  • 53.
    53 Chart 38:Regolazione diPagamenti di Importazioni Cinesi via Hong Kong RMB Settlement of Import of Goods from China via Hong Kong Fonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
  • 54.
    54 Chart 39:Tasso RMB/US$Onshore (CNY), Offshore (CNH) RMB-US$ Exchange Rates Onshore (CNY) and Offshore (CNH) Fonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
  • 55.
    55 Chart 40: Rivalutazionedel RMB Implicita sul Mercato Onshore e Offshore (Non- Deliverable Forward – NDF) / Implied 1-Year Appreciation of the RMB on Onshore and Offshore Markets (NDF) Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art..IV Consultation, July 2012
  • 56.
    56 Chart 41:Dim Bond- Emissioni di Titoli in RMB (CNH) e Curva dei Rendimenti dei Titoli del Debito Cinese Onshore (CNY) e Offshore (CNH) / Dim Bond Issuance of RMB Bonds, Government Bond Yield Onshore (CNY) & Offshore (CNH) Fonte / Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012
  • 57.
    57 Chart 41-Bis: MercatoOffshore Hong Kong in RMB (CNH) / Hong Kong Offshore Market in RMB (CNH) Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;
  • 58.
    58 Chart 42:“Banda diFluttuazione” allargata, Parità Centrale e Tassi di Cambio RMB/US$ - Aprile-Giugno 2012 / Widened “Fluctuation Band”, Central Parity and Closing Exchange Rate RMB-US$ Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012
  • 59.
    59 Chart 43:Cambio RMB/US$e Tasso Nominale Effettivo del RMB verso le altre valute (NEER) / Bilateral RMB/US$ Rate and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate of RMB (NEER) Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012
  • 60.
    60 Chart 44 :Tassidi Cambio RMB rispetto alle principali valute 1994-2012 / Bilateral Exchange rate of RMB vis-a-vis the Main Currencies 1994-2012 Legenda: Indice espresso in unità di RMB per valuta indicata, quindi l’abbassamento (aumento) della linea denota deprezzamento (apprezzamento) della valuta indicate rispetto al RMB Fonte / Source: Oksanen, H. (2012), Re-pegging the Renminbi to a basket: issues and implications. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.x
  • 61.
    61 Chart 45: Movimentidi Capitali a Breve e Differenziale Tassi di Interesse / Hot Money Capital Flows and Interest Rate Differentials Fonte / Source : Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, China, “Cooling off: The drivers and implications of CNY hot money outflows”, October 8, 2012
  • 62.
    62 Chart 46: VariazioneFondi in Valuta nel Bilancio della Banca Centrale e delle Banche ( i.e., Interventi sul Mercato dei Cambi) / Variations in FX Funds Held by the Central Bank and Commercial Banks (i.e., Interventions in the FX Market) Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research, November 6th, 2012
  • 63.
    63 Chart 47:Cambio RMB-US$nel 2012 / Exchange Rate RMB-US$ in 2012 Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research, November 6th, 2012 Legenda: Indice espresso in US$ per unità di RMB, quindi l’abbassamento (aumento) della linea denota deprezzamento (apprezzamento) del RMB rispetto al US$
  • 64.
    64 Chart 48: Misuredi Apertura del Conto Capitale e “Triangolo Impossibile” / Measures to Open the capital Account; the “Impossible Trinity” Fonte / Source: ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012; Fonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012
  • 65.
    65 Chart 49:Portafoglio diChina Investment Corporation 2011 / Investment Portfolio of CIC 2011 Fonte / Source: China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011
  • 66.
    66 Chart 49–Bis: InvestmentiCinesi di SOEs e Privati in USA / Investment Flows of Chinese SOEs and Private Investors into the USA Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013
  • 67.
    67 Chart 50: Indicedegli Investimenti Cinesi Verso l’Estero (ODI) Index of Chinese Direct Investment Abroad (ODI) Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;
  • 68.
    68 Tav. 50-Bis: Tuttavia,I dati mostrano una riduzione di ODI Cinese nell’Area Euro / However Chinese FDI outflows to the Euro Area show a decline in 2012 Fonte / Source: Mark Thompson fDiMagazine, December 14, 2012 According to greenfield investment monitor fDi Markets, there have been 244 Chinese FDI projects recorded between January and October 2012, a significant decline from the same period in 2011, when there were 349 projects. This means that, unless there is a substantial uptick in outward investment in the final two months of the year, 2012 will be China's worst year for outbound FDI since 2008, when 282 projects were recorded. One possible reason for the decline is the crisis in Europe. Historically, Germany has been the main destination for Chinese FDI, accounting for 12% of all outgoing projects between January 2003 and October 2012. In 2011, there were 80 Chinese investments in Germany, while in 2012 so far there has been just 11 such investments. Investment in Hong Kong has increased in 2012, however, with twice the number of Chinese FDI projects recorded in the city-state compared to 2011. Chinese FDI into the UK and the US has remained relatively stable compared to the previous year.
  • 69.
    69 Chart 51: ComposizioneInvestimenti Cinesi verso l’Estero - 2012 Composition of Chinese Outward Direct Investment (ODI)- 2012 Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;
  • 70.
    70 Chart 52: Opportunitàdi Investimento in RMB per Non-Residenti / Investment Opportunities in RMB for Foreign Corporates & Investors Fonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.