Population Dynamics Lab ReportUse the following formula to c.docxharrisonhoward80223
Population Dynamics
Lab Report
Use the following formula to complete the charts below: pf = pi * ert
Where:
pf = final population
pi = initial population
e = a physical constant whose value is 2.7183
r = rate of growth
t = time (doubling time)
Change the rate of growth into a decimal by dividing by 100.
Use either your calculator that has an ex function or the calculator found on the following website: http://www.math.com/students/calculators/source/scientific.htm
Example:
pi = 5.2 X 109 (initial population of 5.2 billion people in developing countries)
t = 39 years (from table 1)
r = 1.8% (from table 1)
r = 1.8% = 0.018
Multiply r and t 0.018 * 39 = 0.702
Pf = 5.2 * (e0.702)
On calculator, enter 0.702, then INV, then ex
Pf = 5.2 * (2.02)
Pf = 10.49 or 10.5 X 109
Or 10.5 billion people
Table 1: Growth Rates and Doubling Times for Various Countries
Region
Growth Rate (%)
Doubling Time (years)
World
1.4
50
Developed Countries
0.4
175
Developing Countries
1.8
39
Africa
2.5
28
Asia
1.6
44
United States
1.0
70
Mexico
1.7
41
Europe
0.2
350
Russia
0.3
233
Oceania
1.5
47
Exercise One:
Part A: Using information from table 1, fill in the chart below and then calculate the final population for each.
Part B: Using information from table 1, fill in Part B of the chart but use the developed countries’ doubling time.
Region
r (%)
dt (years)
Pi (X 109)
Pf (X 109)
A
Developing
4.7
Developed
1.2
United States
0.303
Mexico
0.107
Africa
0.048
B
Developing
**
4.7
**Use doubling time of developed countries
Exercise Two:
Calculate the final population for developed nations where (r) starts at 0.6 and decreases by 0.1 percent every ten years until (r) = 0.0 percent (ZPG). The final population becomes the initial population for the next ten year period.
r (%)
t (years)
Pi (X 109)
Pf (X 109)
0.6
10
1.2
0.5
10
0.4
10
0.3
10
0.2
10
0.1
10
0.0
10
Calculate the final population for developing nations where (r) starts at 2.0 percent and decreases by 0.4 percent every ten years until (r) = 0.0 percent (ZPG). Remember, the final population becomes the initial population for the next ten years.
r (%)
t (years)
Pi (X 109)
Pf (X 109)
2.0
10
4.7
1.6
10
1.2
10
0.8
10
0.4
10
0.2
10
0.0
10
Using information from exercise one, answer the following questions.
1. Which country/region (do not consider the first three lines of information) has the highest growth rate? The lowest? How do you account for this difference?
2. Why do some countries/regions have a shorter or lower doubling time?
3. What would happen to the final population of developing countries if their growth rate is maintained over a developed countries doubling time?
Using information from exercise two, answer the following questions:
1. How do the final populations of developed regions and developing regions compare when zero population growth is reached?
2. Why were the growth rates used in this exercise differen.
Making Cities Safe and Resilient to disaster JIT KUMAR GUPTA
In the face of ongoing scenario of; globalization, liberalization of economies; rapid population growth; ever expanding urban footprints; rapid industrialization; global warming, rising temperature, climate change; depleting ozone layers and increasing carbon footprints, human settlements are fast becoming vulnerable and victim to natural and manmade disasters. Cities are now facing increasing threat posed by cyclones, storms, heavy precipitation, earthquakes, landslides, floods, and avalanches., putting them in perpetual danger of damage and destruction. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, evolved by UNO, defined targets to promote safety, including; understanding disaster risk; strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster ; investing in disaster reduction for resilience and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. For making cities safe against natural and manmade risks, disasters management and mitigation should be made integral part of urban planning and development process besides carrying out analysis of the land-use planning; zoning, environment , ecology, investment; risk and vulnerability mapping; land suitability analysis defining worst-case scenarios for emergency preparedness; promoting planned development; achieving sustainability and safety; making cities spongy and resilient; empowering and involving communities , should remain the underlying and governing principles to make cities safe. Working holistically with and supporting nature; preserving, protecting and promoting flora, fauna and bio-diversity; making optimum use of Pachbhutas (Prithvi, Agni, Vayu, Jal, Akaash), and minimizing conflict between development and nature, will remain most critical for planning, designing and construction of safe and secure built environment. Nature based solutions offer the best options for promoting sustainability and safety to human settlements against natural and manmade disasters.
Population Dynamics Lab ReportUse the following formula to c.docxharrisonhoward80223
Population Dynamics
Lab Report
Use the following formula to complete the charts below: pf = pi * ert
Where:
pf = final population
pi = initial population
e = a physical constant whose value is 2.7183
r = rate of growth
t = time (doubling time)
Change the rate of growth into a decimal by dividing by 100.
Use either your calculator that has an ex function or the calculator found on the following website: http://www.math.com/students/calculators/source/scientific.htm
Example:
pi = 5.2 X 109 (initial population of 5.2 billion people in developing countries)
t = 39 years (from table 1)
r = 1.8% (from table 1)
r = 1.8% = 0.018
Multiply r and t 0.018 * 39 = 0.702
Pf = 5.2 * (e0.702)
On calculator, enter 0.702, then INV, then ex
Pf = 5.2 * (2.02)
Pf = 10.49 or 10.5 X 109
Or 10.5 billion people
Table 1: Growth Rates and Doubling Times for Various Countries
Region
Growth Rate (%)
Doubling Time (years)
World
1.4
50
Developed Countries
0.4
175
Developing Countries
1.8
39
Africa
2.5
28
Asia
1.6
44
United States
1.0
70
Mexico
1.7
41
Europe
0.2
350
Russia
0.3
233
Oceania
1.5
47
Exercise One:
Part A: Using information from table 1, fill in the chart below and then calculate the final population for each.
Part B: Using information from table 1, fill in Part B of the chart but use the developed countries’ doubling time.
Region
r (%)
dt (years)
Pi (X 109)
Pf (X 109)
A
Developing
4.7
Developed
1.2
United States
0.303
Mexico
0.107
Africa
0.048
B
Developing
**
4.7
**Use doubling time of developed countries
Exercise Two:
Calculate the final population for developed nations where (r) starts at 0.6 and decreases by 0.1 percent every ten years until (r) = 0.0 percent (ZPG). The final population becomes the initial population for the next ten year period.
r (%)
t (years)
Pi (X 109)
Pf (X 109)
0.6
10
1.2
0.5
10
0.4
10
0.3
10
0.2
10
0.1
10
0.0
10
Calculate the final population for developing nations where (r) starts at 2.0 percent and decreases by 0.4 percent every ten years until (r) = 0.0 percent (ZPG). Remember, the final population becomes the initial population for the next ten years.
r (%)
t (years)
Pi (X 109)
Pf (X 109)
2.0
10
4.7
1.6
10
1.2
10
0.8
10
0.4
10
0.2
10
0.0
10
Using information from exercise one, answer the following questions.
1. Which country/region (do not consider the first three lines of information) has the highest growth rate? The lowest? How do you account for this difference?
2. Why do some countries/regions have a shorter or lower doubling time?
3. What would happen to the final population of developing countries if their growth rate is maintained over a developed countries doubling time?
Using information from exercise two, answer the following questions:
1. How do the final populations of developed regions and developing regions compare when zero population growth is reached?
2. Why were the growth rates used in this exercise differen.
Making Cities Safe and Resilient to disaster JIT KUMAR GUPTA
In the face of ongoing scenario of; globalization, liberalization of economies; rapid population growth; ever expanding urban footprints; rapid industrialization; global warming, rising temperature, climate change; depleting ozone layers and increasing carbon footprints, human settlements are fast becoming vulnerable and victim to natural and manmade disasters. Cities are now facing increasing threat posed by cyclones, storms, heavy precipitation, earthquakes, landslides, floods, and avalanches., putting them in perpetual danger of damage and destruction. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, evolved by UNO, defined targets to promote safety, including; understanding disaster risk; strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster ; investing in disaster reduction for resilience and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. For making cities safe against natural and manmade risks, disasters management and mitigation should be made integral part of urban planning and development process besides carrying out analysis of the land-use planning; zoning, environment , ecology, investment; risk and vulnerability mapping; land suitability analysis defining worst-case scenarios for emergency preparedness; promoting planned development; achieving sustainability and safety; making cities spongy and resilient; empowering and involving communities , should remain the underlying and governing principles to make cities safe. Working holistically with and supporting nature; preserving, protecting and promoting flora, fauna and bio-diversity; making optimum use of Pachbhutas (Prithvi, Agni, Vayu, Jal, Akaash), and minimizing conflict between development and nature, will remain most critical for planning, designing and construction of safe and secure built environment. Nature based solutions offer the best options for promoting sustainability and safety to human settlements against natural and manmade disasters.
Population growth, variation among nationsHarsh Rastogi
Group of individuals of species occupying a definite geographic area at a given time.
The population will continue to grow till equilibrium is achieved, i.e.
Number of births = Number of deaths
Population growing by 90 million/year.
Of which 93 % in developing countries .
Spread of public health programmes in developing countries.
Rise in food production after World War II.
Every second 4-5 children are born and 2 people die.
Nearly 2.5 persons get added every second.
Due Thurs. 4-30-15 4pmPlease answer in 1 ½ two 2 paragraphs, be very.docxjacksnathalie
Due Thurs. 4-30-15 4pmPlease answer in 1 ½ two 2 paragraphs, be very detailed."Growing Cities" Please respond to the following:Based on the Webtext materials and article below, address the following:
Examine the main reasons why people are attracted to urban areas in the developing world, the problems they encounter once they arrive and the key issues that make this rural to urban migration such a difficult problem for governments to deal with.
A Report by the UN Population Fund
By Lisa Schlein and Joe De Capua
June 28, 2007
For humanity’s sake, developing world must prepare for soaring urbanization. In 2008, the world reaches an invisible but momentous milestone: for the first time in history, more than half its human population, 3.3 billion people, will be living in urban areas. By 2030, this is expected to swell to almost five billion. Many of the new urbanites will be poor. Their future, the future of cities in developing countries throughout the world, the future of humanity itself, all depend very much on decisions made now in preparation for this growth.
While the world’s urban population grew very rapidly (from 220 million to 2.8 billion) over the 20th century, the next few decades will see an unprecedented scale of urban growth in the developing world. This will be particularly notable in Africa and Asia where the urban population will double between 2000 and 2030: that is, the accumulated urban growth of these two regions during the whole span of history will be duplicated in a single generation. By 2030, the towns and cities of the developing world will make up 81 percent of our urban humanity.
The United Nation Population Fund, UN agency, says in a new report that humanity will have to undergo a “revolution in thinking” to deal with a doubling of urban populations in Africa and Asia. The UN continues to say that the number of people in African and Asian cities will grow by 1.7 billion by the year 2030. And worldwide, the number of city dwellers will reach five billion or 60 per cent of the world’s population. The report ‘State of the World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth’ says globally, all future population growth will take place in cities, nearly all of it in Africa, Asia and Latin America. “What’s more, the growth marks “a decisive shift from rural to urban growth, changing a balance that has lasted for millennia.”
The United Nations also warns that a doubling of urban populations in Africa and Asia by 2030 will have harmful consequences if governments do not prepare now for the coming growth. In this year's State of World Population report, the UN Population Fund says this unprecedented wave of urbanization offers potential opportunities or dismal failures. The report explains that next year, for the first time in history, more than half the world's population will be living in cities. It says that by 2030 almost five billion people will be urban dwellers. It says the populations in Af ...
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes vadītāja Jura Kravaļa lekcija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences" Biznesa augstskolā "Turība" 2019. gada 8. oktobrī.
The Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Nigeriatheijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
The papers for publication in The International Journal of Engineering& Science are selected through rigorous peer reviews to ensure originality, timeliness, relevance, and readability.
Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modeling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework and should be capable of replication. It is expected that all materials required for replication (including computer programs and data sets) should be available upon request to the authors.
The International Journal of Engineering & Science would take much care in making your article published without much delay with your kind cooperation
Considered both the future of society, the future of the people, the way of the future of education in a multi-stakeholder, the activities of the order to continue to create "Future Education Consortium" is, in fiscal 2015, such as consumers and companies · NPO / NGO · Students through the co-creation projects by various participants "21 Century Future Enterprise Project", we derive the "social and companies of the future scenario of 2030".
http://miraikk.jp/cat-03/2882
EMS 4304 Unit II Project TemplateHealth problem Primary .docxSALU18
EMS 4304 | Unit II Project Template
Health problem:
Primary Prevention
Secondary Prevention
Tertiary Prevention
Group
Organization
Community
Policy
Running Head: HEALTH AND RISK
1
Health and Risk
8
HEALTH AND RISK
Paul Grasso
CSU
12/10/2017Introduction
The health risk is the chances or probability that human being is likely to suffer from a particular account. It can be accidental or caused but still pose a threat to human life. Today human beings face various risks in their lives based on where they live, the population, economic status and their financial base. In the American setup today the primary threat is the housing and population sector. The number of people living in poor condition has kept on rising in the US and this is raising a concerned how the issue can be addressed (Brebbia, 2009). The number has been increased to over thirteen million by 2013.
The increase in the number is a great worry to the state as it destabilizes the development. Housing has also been a challenge since the population far much surpasses the houses meant for the low earners. Although the government has spent more than $14 billion to construct a low-cost house there still a deficit to be bridged. The most poverty-stricken cities are found in the northeast and Midwest. Cities like Detroit majorly occupied by the black-American the highest number of population. Despite the low level of income the federal governments tend to bring development in those areas to abide by the Supreme Court ruling of inclusivity (Brebbia, 2009). Demographic
The size of the population in Detroit has gone over seven Hundred thousand with the blacks having the highest share of over 82% followed by the whites. The community has been revealed to be increasing at an increasing rate pilling pressure on the available resources. The population in Detroit have a majority of young people of under 18 years and the aged over 60 years. This trend has been caused by the level of poverty on there are pushing those who are still in the employable brackets to move and look job jobs out of the area. Most of the people who get jobs out of the city prefer settling in another area of improved conditions. The industry which existed in the area collapsed leading to rising of a number of the unemployment thus increasing the poverty levels (Brebbia, 2009).
Social status. In this area the levels of education of education are comparatively low, this is because of the unfortunate and unfair distribution of resources. The particular kind of resource distribution has led to the fall in the education level. Initiatives have been made to increase the number by offering a scholarship to high achievers, and the result is evidence as it led to increasing in graduate and postgraduates by seventeen percent by the end of 2015. The level of those who are married is high compared to other cities in the US a population of over 70%of those above 30 years are married thou the rate i ...
The following pairs of co-morbid disorders and a write 700 words .docxssuser454af01
The following pairs of co-morbid disorders and a write 700 words
based on your research:
Depression and substance abuse
Address
the following:
Discuss the general concept of co-morbidity.
Format
your paper consistent with APA guidelines.
.
The following is an access verification technique, listing several f.docxssuser454af01
The following is an access verification technique, listing several files and the access allowed for a single use.
Identify the control technique used here and for each,
explain the type of access allowed
.
a. File_1 R-E-
b. File_12 RWE
c. File_13 RW--
d. File_14 --E-
2.
. The following is an access verification technique, listing several users and the access allowed for File_13.
Identify the control technique used here and for each and
explain the type of access allowed.
Finally, describe who is included in the WORLD category.
a. User_10 --E-
b. User_14 RWED
c. User_17 RWE-
d. WORLD R---
.
The following discussion board post has to have a response. Please r.docxssuser454af01
The following discussion board post has to have a response. Please read the post and respond back according to the instructions attached below. Make sure to respond as instructed. Check attachment for response instruction and respond accordingly.
The instructions for the response to post is attached and highlighted.
The due date is Tuesday 5/10/2021 by 11:59 a.m. NO LATE WORK WILL BE ACCEPTED!
.
The following information has been taken from the ledger accounts of.docxssuser454af01
The following information has been taken from the ledger accounts of Isaac Stern Corporation
Total Income since incorporation$317,000
Total Cash Dividends pai d60,000
Total value of stock dividends distributed30,000
Gains on treasury stock transactions18,000
Unamortized discount of bonds payable32,000
Directions: Determine the current balance of retained earnings
.
The following attach files are my History Homewrok and Lecture Power.docxssuser454af01
The following attach files are my History Homewrok and Lecture Power Point. Please answer those questions by your own words and read the instructions carefully beofer you start writing.
Course Information:
In this course we will survey the history of technological developments from the Renaissance to the current day. We will focus on a series of technological objects—machines, tools, and systems—considering them in their broader historical (social, cultural, and political) contexts. Organized chronologically we will trace this history beginning with Leonardo Da Vinci and ending with the International Space Station. This is not, however, a teleological assessment, which assumes a progressive improvement of technology—each age has merits in its own rights.
.
The following is adapted from the work of Paul Martin Lester.In .docxssuser454af01
The following is adapted from the work of Paul Martin Lester.
In order to find meaning from a visual message, you need to learn a systematic way for studying images.
1.
Make an inventory list of every element in the image,
2.
Note the lighting used in the image,
3.
Note any eye contact by subjects in the image,
4.
Note the visual cues of color, form, depth, and movement,
5.
Note how the gestalt laws apply toward the composition of picture,
6.
Note any semiotic signs that are a part of the image's content, and
When you've gone through the six steps noted above, it's time to apply the six perspectives for visual analysis to the piece. Each perspective is noted below.
Personal Perspective - Gut Reaction
Rick Williams' Omniphasism (all in balance) or Personal Impact Analysis
1.
What is the picture's story?
2.
List primary words.
3.
List associative words.
4.
Select most significant associative words.
5.
Pair up primary & most significant associative words.
6.
Relate word pairs with your own feelings.
7.
Relate any inner symbolism.
8.
Write a brief story concerning personal insights.
Historical Perspective - The image's place in history
When do you think the image was made?
Is there a specific style that the image imitates?
Technical Perspective - Consider the process decisions
How was the image produced?
What techniques were employed?
Is the image of good quality?
Ethical Perspective - Moral Responsibility
Was the image maker socially responsible?
Has any person's rights been violated?
Are the needs of viewers met?
Is the picture aesthetically appealing?
Do the picture choices reflect moderation?
Is the image maker empathetic with the subject?
Can all the image choices be justified?
Does the visual message cause unjustified harm?
Cultural Perspective - Societal Impact
What is the story and the symbolism involved with the elements in the visual message?
What do they say about current cultural values?
Critical Perspective - Reasoned Opinion
What do I think of this image now that I've spent so much time looking and studying it?
Project Overview:
This week, you were introduced to six analytical perspectives for analyzing media. These perspectives form the foundation for your Media Analysis Project (MAP). Over the next three weeks, you will analyze a visual work from any media (print, film, television, Internet), of your own choosing.
Due Date:
June 5
Time Line:
·
Topic Assignment (Listed under Paper Topic)
·
June 5 Thesis and Outline (Listed in appropriate headings below)
·
June 5 Final Paper
NOTE: Thesis and Outline, and Final Paper are two separate documents.
Requirements:
Your analysis must encompass all six perspectives. This will be a detailed analysis consisting of 6-8 written pages. You must also use four credible academic sources in addition to the media itself. All sources must be cited in-text as well as on a reference page using standard APA format. Information on using .
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Population growing by 90 million/year.
Of which 93 % in developing countries .
Spread of public health programmes in developing countries.
Rise in food production after World War II.
Every second 4-5 children are born and 2 people die.
Nearly 2.5 persons get added every second.
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A Report by the UN Population Fund
By Lisa Schlein and Joe De Capua
June 28, 2007
For humanity’s sake, developing world must prepare for soaring urbanization. In 2008, the world reaches an invisible but momentous milestone: for the first time in history, more than half its human population, 3.3 billion people, will be living in urban areas. By 2030, this is expected to swell to almost five billion. Many of the new urbanites will be poor. Their future, the future of cities in developing countries throughout the world, the future of humanity itself, all depend very much on decisions made now in preparation for this growth.
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The United Nations also warns that a doubling of urban populations in Africa and Asia by 2030 will have harmful consequences if governments do not prepare now for the coming growth. In this year's State of World Population report, the UN Population Fund says this unprecedented wave of urbanization offers potential opportunities or dismal failures. The report explains that next year, for the first time in history, more than half the world's population will be living in cities. It says that by 2030 almost five billion people will be urban dwellers. It says the populations in Af ...
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes vadītāja Jura Kravaļa lekcija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences" Biznesa augstskolā "Turība" 2019. gada 8. oktobrī.
The Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Nigeriatheijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
The papers for publication in The International Journal of Engineering& Science are selected through rigorous peer reviews to ensure originality, timeliness, relevance, and readability.
Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modeling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework and should be capable of replication. It is expected that all materials required for replication (including computer programs and data sets) should be available upon request to the authors.
The International Journal of Engineering & Science would take much care in making your article published without much delay with your kind cooperation
Considered both the future of society, the future of the people, the way of the future of education in a multi-stakeholder, the activities of the order to continue to create "Future Education Consortium" is, in fiscal 2015, such as consumers and companies · NPO / NGO · Students through the co-creation projects by various participants "21 Century Future Enterprise Project", we derive the "social and companies of the future scenario of 2030".
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EMS 4304 Unit II Project TemplateHealth problem Primary .docxSALU18
EMS 4304 | Unit II Project Template
Health problem:
Primary Prevention
Secondary Prevention
Tertiary Prevention
Group
Organization
Community
Policy
Running Head: HEALTH AND RISK
1
Health and Risk
8
HEALTH AND RISK
Paul Grasso
CSU
12/10/2017Introduction
The health risk is the chances or probability that human being is likely to suffer from a particular account. It can be accidental or caused but still pose a threat to human life. Today human beings face various risks in their lives based on where they live, the population, economic status and their financial base. In the American setup today the primary threat is the housing and population sector. The number of people living in poor condition has kept on rising in the US and this is raising a concerned how the issue can be addressed (Brebbia, 2009). The number has been increased to over thirteen million by 2013.
The increase in the number is a great worry to the state as it destabilizes the development. Housing has also been a challenge since the population far much surpasses the houses meant for the low earners. Although the government has spent more than $14 billion to construct a low-cost house there still a deficit to be bridged. The most poverty-stricken cities are found in the northeast and Midwest. Cities like Detroit majorly occupied by the black-American the highest number of population. Despite the low level of income the federal governments tend to bring development in those areas to abide by the Supreme Court ruling of inclusivity (Brebbia, 2009). Demographic
The size of the population in Detroit has gone over seven Hundred thousand with the blacks having the highest share of over 82% followed by the whites. The community has been revealed to be increasing at an increasing rate pilling pressure on the available resources. The population in Detroit have a majority of young people of under 18 years and the aged over 60 years. This trend has been caused by the level of poverty on there are pushing those who are still in the employable brackets to move and look job jobs out of the area. Most of the people who get jobs out of the city prefer settling in another area of improved conditions. The industry which existed in the area collapsed leading to rising of a number of the unemployment thus increasing the poverty levels (Brebbia, 2009).
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based on your research:
Depression and substance abuse
Address
the following:
Discuss the general concept of co-morbidity.
Format
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.
The following is an access verification technique, listing several f.docxssuser454af01
The following is an access verification technique, listing several files and the access allowed for a single use.
Identify the control technique used here and for each,
explain the type of access allowed
.
a. File_1 R-E-
b. File_12 RWE
c. File_13 RW--
d. File_14 --E-
2.
. The following is an access verification technique, listing several users and the access allowed for File_13.
Identify the control technique used here and for each and
explain the type of access allowed.
Finally, describe who is included in the WORLD category.
a. User_10 --E-
b. User_14 RWED
c. User_17 RWE-
d. WORLD R---
.
The following discussion board post has to have a response. Please r.docxssuser454af01
The following discussion board post has to have a response. Please read the post and respond back according to the instructions attached below. Make sure to respond as instructed. Check attachment for response instruction and respond accordingly.
The instructions for the response to post is attached and highlighted.
The due date is Tuesday 5/10/2021 by 11:59 a.m. NO LATE WORK WILL BE ACCEPTED!
.
The following information has been taken from the ledger accounts of.docxssuser454af01
The following information has been taken from the ledger accounts of Isaac Stern Corporation
Total Income since incorporation$317,000
Total Cash Dividends pai d60,000
Total value of stock dividends distributed30,000
Gains on treasury stock transactions18,000
Unamortized discount of bonds payable32,000
Directions: Determine the current balance of retained earnings
.
The following attach files are my History Homewrok and Lecture Power.docxssuser454af01
The following attach files are my History Homewrok and Lecture Power Point. Please answer those questions by your own words and read the instructions carefully beofer you start writing.
Course Information:
In this course we will survey the history of technological developments from the Renaissance to the current day. We will focus on a series of technological objects—machines, tools, and systems—considering them in their broader historical (social, cultural, and political) contexts. Organized chronologically we will trace this history beginning with Leonardo Da Vinci and ending with the International Space Station. This is not, however, a teleological assessment, which assumes a progressive improvement of technology—each age has merits in its own rights.
.
The following is adapted from the work of Paul Martin Lester.In .docxssuser454af01
The following is adapted from the work of Paul Martin Lester.
In order to find meaning from a visual message, you need to learn a systematic way for studying images.
1.
Make an inventory list of every element in the image,
2.
Note the lighting used in the image,
3.
Note any eye contact by subjects in the image,
4.
Note the visual cues of color, form, depth, and movement,
5.
Note how the gestalt laws apply toward the composition of picture,
6.
Note any semiotic signs that are a part of the image's content, and
When you've gone through the six steps noted above, it's time to apply the six perspectives for visual analysis to the piece. Each perspective is noted below.
Personal Perspective - Gut Reaction
Rick Williams' Omniphasism (all in balance) or Personal Impact Analysis
1.
What is the picture's story?
2.
List primary words.
3.
List associative words.
4.
Select most significant associative words.
5.
Pair up primary & most significant associative words.
6.
Relate word pairs with your own feelings.
7.
Relate any inner symbolism.
8.
Write a brief story concerning personal insights.
Historical Perspective - The image's place in history
When do you think the image was made?
Is there a specific style that the image imitates?
Technical Perspective - Consider the process decisions
How was the image produced?
What techniques were employed?
Is the image of good quality?
Ethical Perspective - Moral Responsibility
Was the image maker socially responsible?
Has any person's rights been violated?
Are the needs of viewers met?
Is the picture aesthetically appealing?
Do the picture choices reflect moderation?
Is the image maker empathetic with the subject?
Can all the image choices be justified?
Does the visual message cause unjustified harm?
Cultural Perspective - Societal Impact
What is the story and the symbolism involved with the elements in the visual message?
What do they say about current cultural values?
Critical Perspective - Reasoned Opinion
What do I think of this image now that I've spent so much time looking and studying it?
Project Overview:
This week, you were introduced to six analytical perspectives for analyzing media. These perspectives form the foundation for your Media Analysis Project (MAP). Over the next three weeks, you will analyze a visual work from any media (print, film, television, Internet), of your own choosing.
Due Date:
June 5
Time Line:
·
Topic Assignment (Listed under Paper Topic)
·
June 5 Thesis and Outline (Listed in appropriate headings below)
·
June 5 Final Paper
NOTE: Thesis and Outline, and Final Paper are two separate documents.
Requirements:
Your analysis must encompass all six perspectives. This will be a detailed analysis consisting of 6-8 written pages. You must also use four credible academic sources in addition to the media itself. All sources must be cited in-text as well as on a reference page using standard APA format. Information on using .
The following article is related to deterring employee fraud within .docxssuser454af01
The following article is related to deterring employee fraud within organizations and answers some related questions. After reading the case, answer the following questions:
Read the article the following article:
Wells, J. T. (2004, December). Small business, big losses.
Journal of Accountancy,
198
(6), 42-47. Retrieved from Business Source Complete database.
Section:FRAUD
Audits and hotlines stack up as the bestcrime busters in a new ACFE study.
Occupational fraud has become--at least so far--the crime of the 21st century. It is a widespread phenomenon that affects practically every organization. The frauds in the 2004 Report to the Nation on Occupational Fraud and Abuse, from the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, caused over $761 million in total losses, with a disproportionate percentage committed against small businesses--almost half of the frauds in the study took place in businesses with fewer than 100 employees. Not surprisingly such businesses are less likely to be audited or employ antifraud measures than the larger ones.
Several broad conclusions can be drawn from the 2004 report. First, though the losses have been stable over the years, the fact that in one year alone they are approaching $660 billion is cause for concern. Dishonest executives and employees are plying essentially the same schemes with the same results. Second, although large financial statement frauds receive the most attention, they are relatively uncommon compared to asset misappropriations and corruption. Third, small businesses remain the most vulnerable to occupational fraud because of three factors: They are the least likely to have an audit, a hotline or adequate internal controls. Fourth, audits--both internal and external--although excellent prevention devices are not the most effective means of detecting frauds. Fifth, hotlines and other reporting mechanisms are a vital part of any organization's prevention efforts but should go beyond employees to vendors and customers, too. Finally, occupational fraud cannot be eliminated but organizations that use both hotlines and auditors can greatly reduce these costly crimes.
Occupational fraud schemes can be as simple as pilferage of company supplies or as complex as sophisticated financial statement frauds. This article summarizes some of the key findings of certified fraud examiners (CFEs) in cases they investigated. Internal and external auditors and CPAs advising small business clients will learn of the most effective antifraud measures.
MEASURING THE COST OF FRAUD
Determining the true cost of occupational fraud is an impossible task. Because fraud is a crime based on concealment, organizations often do not know when they are being victimized. Many frauds never are detected or are caught only after they have gone on for several years. Many of those are never reported or prosecuted. In fact, there is no agency or organization that is specifically charged with gathering comprehensive fraud-relat.
The Five stages of ChangeBy Thursday, June 25, 2015, respond to .docxssuser454af01
The Five stages of Change
By Thursday, June 25, 2015, respond to the discussion.
Discussion Question
Anthony is a 27 year old heterosexual Caucasian male. He was arrested 2 weeks ago for his second DWI and is facing a license suspension. He works as a delivery driver for a local store and after disclosing the arrest to his employer, as well as the consequences including loss of his license, he was terminated.
Anthony lives with his girlfriend of 3 years and their 2 year old son. Anthony’s drinking behavior has increased to consumption of a case of beer on Saturday and Sunday evenings each week. He consumes several beers after work during the week “to maintain.” He has also been using methamphetamines, specifically “crystal meth” several times weekly. Anthony’s girlfriend ended their relationship as a result of his increasing substance use and ongoing difficulties. Anthony feels depressed and anxious about his current life situation, especially now that he realizes that he has no job and may be homeless because of his substance use. He is also feeling down about the loss of his relationship. He researched a few outpatient treatment programs to help him stop using both alcohol and methamphetamines, but is ambivalent about entering treatment. Anthony has considered the need to stop using substances to improve his life and relationships with significant others, though fears that he will lose his friends and miss partying with them if he stops. He also fears what life will be like without the comfort of getting high.
Consider and discuss the 5 stages of change. Based upon the information provided discuss what stage Anthony is in, and provide a rationale for your decision. Next, discuss the other stages of change and what indicators we might see as Anthony progresses on through these stages. Your posting must be a minimum of 500 words.
.
The first step in understanding the behaviors that are associated wi.docxssuser454af01
The first step in understanding the behaviors that are associated with mental disorders is to be able to differentiate the potential symptoms of a mental disorder from the everyday fluctuations or behaviors that we observe. Read the following brief case histories.
Case Study 1:
Bob is a very intelligent, 25-year-old member of a religious organization based on Buddhism. Bob’s working for this organization has caused considerable conflict between him and his parents, who are devout Baptists. Recently, Bob has experienced acute spells of nausea and fatigue that have prevented him from working and have forced him to return home to live with his parents. Various medical tests are being conducted, but as yet, no physical causes for his problems have been found.
Case Study 2:
Mary is a 30-year-old musician who is very dedicated and successful in her work as a teacher in a local high school and as a part-time member of local musical groups. Since her marriage five years ago, which ended in divorce after six months, she has dated very few men. She often worries about her time running out for establishing a good relationship with a man, getting married, and raising a family. Her friends tell her she gets way too anxious around men, and, in general, she needs to relax a little.
Case Study 3:
Jim was vice-president of the freshmen class at a local college and played on the school’s football team. Later that year, he dropped out of these activities and gradually became more and more withdrawn from friends and family. Neglecting to shave and shower, he began to look dirty and unhealthy. He spent most of his time alone in his room and sometimes complained to his parents that he heard voices in the curtains and in the closet. In his sophomore year, he dropped out of school entirely. With increasing anxiety and agitation, he began to worry that the Nazis were plotting to kill his family and kidnap him.
Case Study 4:
Larry, a 37-year-old gay man, has lived for three years with his partner, whom he met in graduate school. Larry works as a psychologist in a large hospital. Although competent in his work, he often feels strained by the pressures of his demanding position. An added source of tension on the job is his not being out with his co-workers, and, thus, he is not able to confide in anyone or talk about his private life. Most of his leisure activities are with good friends who are also part of the local gay community.
For each case, identify the individual's behaviors that seem to be problematic for the patient.
For each case study, explain from the biological, psychological, or socio-cultural perspective your decision-making process for identifying the behaviors that may or may not have been associated with the symptoms of a mental disorder.
Based on your course and text readings, provide an explanation why you would consider some of these cases to exhibit behaviors that may be associated with problems that occur in everyday life, while others could be as.
The first one is due Sep 24 at 1100AMthe French-born Mexican jo.docxssuser454af01
The first one is due Sep 24 at 11:00AM
the French-born Mexican journalist and author, Elena Poniatowska, will give a
public lecture
on the topic "
We Can All Be Writers" at
ASU
.
To receive the extra credit, you need to
attend the entire event and submits a short rhetorical analysis
(250 words):
identify one thing the speaker did well, and one thing she did not do well, in anticipating and reaching her target audience
https://ihr.asu.edu/news-events/events/we-can-all-be-writers-lecture-elena-poniatowska
___________________________________________________________________________
The second one is due Sept 25 at 11:00AM
the fiction writer and poet, Matt Bell, will
read from and discuss his work
at ASU
.
Anybody who
attends the entire event and submits a short report
(250 words)
and a personal reflection
(what did you learn? what was surprising? was there something you could relate to your
personal experience or writing?
- 500 words)
http://english.clas.asu.edu/mfareadingseries
.
The first part is a direct quote, copied word for word. Includ.docxssuser454af01
The
first part
is a
direct quote, copied word for word. Include the author's last name and the page number of the quote in parantheses. MLA format.
The
second part
of the journal entry, is
one paragraph that explains why you found the passage to be important
.
.
The final research paper should be no less than 15 pages and in APA .docxssuser454af01
The final research paper should be no less than 15 pages and in APA format. The 15 pages does not include the references/bibliography pages. You should also include visuals such as charts, pictures, or other media visuals to support and compliment your study. All papers will be submitted through eCourse and a link will be provided for submission
.
The first one Description Pick a physical activity. Somethi.docxssuser454af01
The first one
Description: Pick a
physical activity
. Something you do all the time, or something you’ve never done before: bike riding, running, swimming, hiking, golf, playing twister, roller skating, soccer, basketball, etc. Now go and spend at least twenty minutes participating in this activity. Really do it. Engage. Explore and experience it. Pay attention to every part of your body and mind as you play/do the activity. Even if you’ve done it all your life, engage with every nuance of the activity. What do your muscles do and feel like when doing the activity? What is challenging? What is smooth and easy? What sounds to you experience? smells? Tastes? Sights? Sensations? What about your mind? Where do your thoughts go as you perform the activity? Really pay attention and discover the experience of the activity. Perform it for at least twenty minutes, mindfully paying attention to every part of the experience. Experience and notice the details. Now go home. And write about what you experienced. Detail it. Tell me about what was hard, easy, unusual, fun, new? What did you feel, taste, smell, hear, see? Take me through it beat by beat, moment by moment, nuance by nuance.
The second one
Description: Go to a busy café or diner, or some other eatery, where you can sit near TWO other people, engaged in a conversation, a dynamic interesting conversation with tenstion… where something is happening between the two people… EAVES DROP on conversations – without being obvious. Find one that has something interesting going on. Anticipate spending at least 20-30 minutes listening in to this conversation.
From this conversation, listen carefully, pay attention to what is being said, what conflict is arising, what is expressed and revealed through the language. NOW, also pay attention to the people involved. What do they look like? What is their body language? Pay attention to all the details. Do not write anything at the busy café or diner. Just listen to what is said. Watch. Pay attention to all the details.
At a later time (when you get back home)
write a letter as if you are one of the people you observed in the café. Write the letter addressing the person that they were at the café with. This can be a love letter, a complaint, an email, an apology, an explanation, etc… For this exercise to work, you must have 1) chosen a conversation to listen to where something was HAPPENING and 2) you must really have spent the time, listening in on a conversation and paying attention to the dramatic tension… something between the two people must have been witnessed, heard, experienced, by YOU the writer. If not this letter will be flat, uninteresting, and lacking conflict. Write about something you heard or observed happening between the two people, but write about it as if you are one of the people in the conversation to the other. Write about some inherent need, conflict, obstacles. The letter can be a complaint, an apology, a .
The first column suggests traditional familyschool relationships an.docxssuser454af01
The first column suggests traditional family/school relationships and the second identifies a more collaborative approach. Provide an example of a situation (attendance, behavior problems, academic difficulties) that could arise at school and suggest how this issue may be resolved with a collaborative approach. Respond to at least two of your classmates’ postings.
.
The first president that I actually remembered was Jimmy Carter. .docxssuser454af01
The first president that I actually remembered was Jimmy Carter. I do remember as a child Ford being mentioned, but I was certainly not engaged in his presidency. However, I remember Reagan quite well. He came to office after a major financial down turn and his policies did seem to improve things immediately. Some have said that his actions of borrowing money were a hindrance to the future. Do you feel that Reganomics was beneficial to future generations or did he just borrow from the future in order to benefit his present circumstance? Did this set precedence for future presidents to take the nation into debt in order to help their political careers? I look forward to your thoughts?
.
The final project for this course is the creation of a conceptual mo.docxssuser454af01
The final project for this course is the creation of a conceptual model for an integrated afterschool childhood prevention, education, or intervention program (Boys and Girls Club, for example). The program serves a wide range of age groups (ages 4 through 17) and demographic backgrounds. Students should design a program that can appropriately address the needs of the various learners. This final project should include a program foundation, program description, research proposal, and self-reflection.
The final product represents an authentic demonstration of competency because it requires students to apply classic theory in order to compose an original program based on advanced developmental principles. The project is divided into
four milestones
, which will be submitted at various points throughout the course to scaffold learning and ensure quality final submissions. These milestones will be submitted in
Modules Three, Five, Seven, and Ten.
Main Elements
1.
Program Foundation:
a narrative/essay format that will describe the main concept of the program (prevention, education, intervention) and if the program will focus on a specific topic (math, English, drugs, bullying, coping skills for stress or anxiety, peer pressure, or your choice). This foundational narrative will provide citations that link the program concept to at least two of the classical theories presented in this course (Montessori, Piaget, Vygotsky, Bandura, Bronfenbrenner). (approximately 3–4 pages)
·
What type of program will be the focus of this project? Will it be a prevention program to stop kids from using alcohol and drugs? To try and prevent bullying? Will the program be an educational model, for example, a program focused on improving educational outcomes like math, critical thinking, problem solving, science, language skills, or other? Will the program be an intervention model or a program that targets kids for problematic behaviors like truancy, acting out in class, running away, vandalism, minor theft, or underage possession of alcohol or substances?
·
Consider the critical tasks of development as laid out by the chosen theory that may help organize the approaches utilized for each age group.
2.
Program Description
: This section will provide specific descriptions of the elements (tasks, materials, activities) for the each developmental level spanning the age ranges from 4 through 17. These levels should be consistent with at least one of the two classical theories proposed in your program foundation narrative. (approximately 3–4 pages)
·
In what setting will this program be offered, for example, school setting, community center, treatment center, or a faith-based organization?
·
How will your topic differ across each developmental level?
·
How will you describe the activities, materials, and tasks that will take place in the program for each age range?
·
Are the age ranges consistent with at least one of the classic theories employed to guide this.
The finance department of a large corporation has evaluated a possib.docxssuser454af01
The finance department of a large corporation has evaluated a possible capital project using the NPV method, the Payback Method, and the IRR method. The analysts are puzzled, since the NPV indicated rejection, but the IRR and Payback methods both indicated acceptance. Explain why this conflicting situation might occur and what conclusions the analyst should accept, indicating the shortcomings and the advantages of each method. Assuming the data is correct, which method will most likely provide the most accurate decisions and why?
.
The Final Paper must have depth of scholarship, originality, theoret.docxssuser454af01
The Final Paper must have depth of scholarship, originality, theoretical and conceptual framework, clarity and logic in its presentation and adhere to grammar guidelines. You will select a topic for your Final Paper related to the Future of Managed Health Care Delivery Systems, which will be submitted to your instructor for approval during Week Two. The 10-15 page paper (excluding title and reference pages) must follow APA guidelines for written assignments and contain eight to ten scholarly and/ or peer-reviewed sources, excluding the course textbook.
Your paper must address the following bolded topics, which should be titled appropriately in your paper:
Include an
Abstract
which is a synopsis of the overall paper.
Managed Health Care Quality
should address such factors as whether or not patient health care needs and even preferences are being met; the care is right for the illness, care is timely, and unnecessary test and procedures are not ordered.
Provider Contracting
is when doctors and health care practitioners have a contract agreement through a third party payer to accept a specified payment for services provided to patients.
Cost Containment
deals with managing the costs of doing business within a specified budget while restraining expenditures to meet a specified financial target.
Effects on Medicare and Medicaid
in managed health care appear to be moving in a direction where both types of recipients will be enrolled in some type of managed health care plan in the near future.
The Future Role of Government Regulations
, to include ERISA and HIPAA health care policies.
Include
Three Recommendations
each, related to quality and change in Medicare and Medicaid managed health care plans.
Writing the Final Paper
Must be ten- to fifteen double-spaced pages in length and formatted according to APA style as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center.
Must have a cover page that includes:
Title of paper
Student’s name
Course name and number
Instructor’s name
Date submitted
Must include an introductory paragraph with a succinct thesis statement.
Must address the topic of the paper with critical thought.
Must end with a conclusion that reaffirms your thesis.
Must use at least eight scholarly and /or peer-reviewed sources, published within the last five years, including a minimum of three from the Ashford University Online Library.
Must document all sources in APA style, as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center.
Must include a separate reference page, formatted according to APA style as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center.
.
The Final exam primarily covers the areas of the hydrosphere, the bi.docxssuser454af01
The Final exam primarily covers the areas of the hydrosphere, the biosphere and the lithosphere. As in the Midterm, special attention should be paid to the lecture notes and the PowerPoint files, as well as the Discussion Boards. These sections are dependent on the text and the laboratory exercises, but the discussions and the lecture notes are more conducive to explanation and understanding with a essay-driven format. Additionally, the animated PowerPoints are good at achieving an understanding of processes that are in motion, especially when looking at the lithosphere, giving them more of a 3-dimensional quality.
For this final essay exam you are required to answer all five (5) of the questions. Although there is no set word limit for these essay questions, you will be graded on your knowledge of the material and the detail with which you write your answers. You should take care to cite your sources in APA format and provide full references in a Works Cited list.
Describe the paths of water through the hydrologic cycle. Explain the processes and the energy gains and losses involved in the changes of water between its 3 states. Operationally, we often most concerned with water does when it reaches the solid earth, both on the surface and in the sub-surface. Explain the relationship between the saturated zone, the water table, a ground water well and the cone of depression, all within the sub-surface.
The food chain is a valuable concept in biogeography. Give an example of a specific food chain, labeling the various levels of the food chain. After looking at characteristics of food chains, explain how a geographer’s approach to the study of organisms might be different than biologist’s study of organisms; what would each try to emphasize more than the other? What exactly is a biome? Compare/contrast the concept of the biome with that of the zoogeographic region. Compare/contrast the floral characteristics of 2 of the following biomes: Desert, Tundra, Midlatitude Grassland and Boreal Forest.
Theorize the difference in soil development in adjoining soils developed on forested, sloped area versus a grassed flat area. What are the soil-forming factors? Explain the importance of the nature of the parent material to soil formation and type. Then, cite at least 2 examples in which the influence of parent materials might be outweighed by other soil-forming factors. Explain the “struggle” between the internal and external processes in shaping the Earth’s surface. What are the different ways that the surface of the Earth is changed over time?
Describe the general sequence of events in continental drift since the time of 5 separate continents 450 million years ago. What is the difference between the older continental drift theory by Wegener and the more recent plate tectonic theory? Plate tectonics theory explains many seemingly unrelated phenomena. Explain how the patterns of volcanoes and earthquakes related to plate tectonics..
The Final Paper must be 8 pages (not including title and reference p.docxssuser454af01
The Final Paper must be 8 pages (not including title and reference pages) and should demonstrate an understanding of the reading assignments, class discussions, your own research, and the application of new knowledge. It must include citations and references for six to eight sources; one may be the text.
Micozzi, M. S. (2010). Fundamentals of complementary and alternative medicine. (4th ed.). St. Louis, MO: Saunders Elsevier.
At least four must be from the ProQuest, EBSCOhost, or PubMed Central databases in the University Library, and the remaining sources must be from other scholarly or professional Internet resources.
For the Final Paper,
Complementary and alternative medicines >> (
Natural Products)
Provide a brief discussion of the protocols, and provide details of historical events that shaped the practice.
Chronic Pain
Describe the disease or condition from the CAM perspective
Include potential cultural challenges faced by the afflicted patient population as well as the practitioner.
Describe how the CAM (Natural Products) practitioner diagnoses and treats the condition.
Identify potential questions or skepticisms other health care providers and potential clientele may have regarding the CAM selected, and address the questions, supporting your responses with a minimum of two sources of research for the health condition and system chosen.
Identify and substantively describe a minimum of two other CAM practice interventions that could be suggested to assist in minimizing the impact of the illness/condition. Justify implementation of the two interventions you are recommending.
Must begin with an introductory paragraph that has a succinct thesis statement.
Must address the topic of the paper with critical thought.
Must end with a restatement of the thesis and a conclusion paragraph.
Must utilize six to eight sources; one may be the text, at least four must be from the ProQuest, EBSCOhost, or PubMed Central databases, and the remaining sources must be from other scholarly or professional Internet resources.
Must document all sources in APA style.
Must include a separate reference page that is formatted according to APA style.
.
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
1. F
CHAPTER6
ComingGame-Changers?BurgeoningCities,ClimateChange,and
Climate-InducedCatastrophes
uturedisasterrisks(acombinationofhazard,exposure,andvulnerabil
ity)may
change as a result of two powerful trends: burgeoning cities and
a changing
climate. The latest United Nations (UN) estimates suggest that,
globally, the urban
population exceeded the rural for the first time in 2008 (UN
Populations Division
2008).Inlessdevelopedregions,thisthresholdisexpectedtobereache
dbyaround
2020. How will changing distributions of population and income
in the context of
growingcitieschangeourexposureandvulnerabilitytonaturalhazard
s?Howwillthe
incidenceofclimateandweatherextremesaffectfutureeconomiesan
dwell-being?
Forexample,widespreadmigrationtocoastalregionsmaygreatlyincr
easeriskeven
if the climate were to remain constant, while increasing
prosperity may work to
reducerisk,eveniftheclimatehazardsthemselvesareincreasingorint
ensifying.
Andwhataboutclimate-
inducedcatastrophes,definedheretomeandisastersthat
2. occuronaglobalscaleandarelikelytobeirreversibleoveranyrealistic
timeframe
fordecision-
making?Forexample,themeltingoftheicesheetonGreenland,asa
consequence of climate change, could raise sea levels by seven
meters, and the
melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet could raise them by five
meters, flooding
manymajorcoastalareas.
The chapter starts with a discussion on cities, whose growth,
especially in the
developingworld,substantiallychangesexposureandvulnerability.
It thenanalyzes
howclimatechangecouldaffecthazardssuchastropicalcyclones,wit
haglimpseof
thesciencebehindtheprojections.Notethatthefocusisontheaddition
alhazards
induced by climate change, distinguishing them from changes in
hazards without
futureclimatechange.Moreover,thefocusonhazardsmeansthatthea
nalysisdoes
notaddressalltheeffectsofclimatechange.1
The risks and costs of climate-induced catastrophes, whose
global scale and
persistencedifferentiatethemfromdisastersonamorelocalandregio
nalscale,are
examinedlast.
Institutionsarethecommonthreadlinkingthethreepossiblegame-
changers.They
need to adapt to all risks—not just those from urbanization,
climate change, and
catastrophe—and function municipally, nationally, and globally.
5. attractingpeopleandinvestments.Theirprosperityarisesfromthediv
isionof labor
that thedensityofpeopleandassetsallows,andfromthe
lowercostofacquiring
productivity-increasing information and technology (“know-
how”). There are now 26
megacities(withmorethan10millionpeople),upfromeightin1950.T
he2009World
DevelopmentReportexaminedthese issues
ineconomicgeographyandconcluded
thatgovernmentsshouldnottrytopreventordiverturbanizationbutsh
ouldinstead
bettersupportcitiesandprovideneededservicestobothurbanandrura
lareas(each
has a different set of challenges). Building on the 2009 WDR’s
framework, this
sectionbeginsbyoutlininghowandwhycitiesgrowandwhyexposuret
ohazards
mayrisebutvulnerabilitymayfallintheaggregateasdensitiesandinc
omesincrease.
Citiesgrowfasterthancountries
Historically, output has grown by about 1 to 2 percentage points
more than
population,sopercapitaincomehasrisenalmosteverywhere.Muchof
thegrowth
has been in cities, where per capita income is higher. Among
150 of the world’s
largestcities,percapitaoutputisabout1.8timestheaveragenationalo
utput.And
urbanpercapitaincomeisonaveragetwicetherural.2Thisisnotnew:c
itieshave
long brought prosperity. Cities’ population is also growing. The
UN estimates the
worldurbanpopulation’ssharewillriseto70percentby2050.3About
6. halfthisgrowth
is “natural” (owing to the fertility of urban dwellers)
(Montgomery 2009), and the
remainderisduetoexpansion(whenadjoiningvillagesgrowtomeet)a
ndmigration
(map6.1).
Many cities are outgrowing the capacity of roads, water supply,
and sewage
disposal systems to serve their inhabitants. Services have not
kept pace largely
becausecitieshavenotinvestedenoughininfrastructure—
eveninthevauntedhomes
of high-tech industries like Bangalore, India. The reasons differ,
but many can be
traced to institutions that do not allow city administrations to
respond to people’s
needs:forexample,thefinancingarrangementsofIndiancitiescouldb
efaulted(Bahl
and Martinez-Vazquez 2008). Congestion, pollution, and
frustration may eventually
chokethecontinuinggrowthofsuchcities,but
theirpeopleareexposedtonatural
hazardstoday.Thesearethecitieswheredangersmaybeunnecessaril
yhigh.
Map6.1Citiesprojectedtohavemorethan100,000peoplebytheyear2
050
The, World Bank, Bank World, and Nations (UN) United.
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Citygrowthwillincreaseexposure
Cities are largely founded at transport intersections—such as
ports, or at the first
bridgeonariverupstream.Somenaturalharborsreflectactivetectoni
cs.Flat land
close to the water was at a premium, reflecting unconsolidated
recent sediments,
often reclaimed for its value. Such land is vulnerable to both
flooding and ground
motionamplification.Forexample,SanFranciscowasoriginallyacit
ybuiltofwooden
buildings,largelydestroyedinthefirethatfollowedthe1906earthqua
9. ke.Thedebris
fromthatearthquakewasthenpushedintotheseatocreatemorereclai
medlandon
whichtheMarinaDistrictwasconstructed,onlytosufferhighlevelsof
damageand
ground settlement in the 1989 earthquake. Such growth
increases exposure and
vulnerabilitytohazardsunlesspeopletakeconsciousmeasurestoprev
entthem.
City-specific population projections to 20504 for this report are
combined with
geographicpatternsofhazardeventsrepresentativeof the1975–
2007period.The
projectednumberofpeopleexposedto
tropicalcyclonesandearthquakes in large
citiesin2050morethandoubles,risingfrom310millionin2000to680
millionin2050
fortropicalcyclones,andfrom370millionto870millionforearthqua
kes(map6.2).
Map6.2Exposuretocyclonesandearthquakesinlargecitiesrisesfrom
680millionpeoplein2000to1.5
billionpeopleby2050
The, World Bank, Bank World, and Nations (UN) United.
Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, edited by World Bank
The, et al., World Bank Publications, 2010. ProQuest Ebook
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The growing exposure continues to vary by region. By 2050,
there will be 246
millioncitydwellersincyclone-
proneareasinSouthAsia,but160millioneachinthe
OECDand inEastAsia.AlthoughEastAsiahasfewerexposedpeople,
theurban
populationexposedtocyclonesisexpectedtogrowat2.2percentayear
,similarto
SouthAsia’s.Sub-SaharanAfrica’sexposuregrowthat3.5percent
isevenhigher,
reaching21millionurbandwellersby2050.
Exposure to earthquakes will likely remain the bane of East
Asia: 267 million in
2050,upfrom83millionin2000.ItisalsohighinLatinAmericaandthe
Caribbean
(150 million in 2050) and OECD countries (129 million in
12. 2050). But the fastest
exposuregrowthisinSouthAsia(3.5percent),followedbySub-
SaharanAfrica(2.7
percent).
Thedensityofpeopleandeconomicactivitynotonlychangestheriske
quation—it
can also change the economics of disaster risk reduction
strategies. And what
applies
topopulationappliesevenmoretoeconomicassetsandoutput.Citiesa
re
enginesofgrowth,andfirmsprefertolocateinurbancenterswithgood
accessto
labor.Eachunitofareathereforegeneratesfarmoreoutputandhostsal
argerstock
of economic assets. This reflects the concentration and greater
economic value of
productiveassets—
aswellaspublicinfrastructureandprivateassetssuchashomes
—
incities.Theexposureofeconomicassetstonaturalhazardsincitieswi
llthusbe
considerably higher than in rural areas. But greater exposure
need not increase
vulnerability:muchdependsonhowcitiesaremanaged.
Citymanagementwilldeterminevulnerability
Acoretaskforcitiesistoprovide,coordinate,anddisseminateinforma
tionsothat
land, housing, and insurance markets can operate efficiently.
Data on hazard
probabilitiesandthevulnerabilityofstructuresandpeople feed
intocomprehensive
riskassessments.Theseshouldbemadeaccessibletoall.Suchinforma
14. P
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residents to make informed location choices and markets to
price hazard risk
appropriately. It also provides the basis for the emergence of
private insurance
markets.Anditservesasasoundbasisfortransparentzoningdecisions
andother
15. land use restrictions. And while hazard mapping has been
performed for many
decades,newtechnologiesallowconstantupdatingofinformationata
fairlylowcost.
Makingthesetechnologiesaccessibletocities—
notonlythelargest,butalsosmaller
andmedium-sizedcitieswithlimitedlocalcapacity—
shouldbeapriority.
Forlarge-
scalecollectivehazardriskreductioninvestments,thecostsandbenef
its
dependinlargepartonthedynamicsoftheurbaneconomy,particularl
yonthevalue
of land. In dynamically growing cities, where land is scarce,
large investments to
make landhabitableor reducesignificant riskmaywellbe
justified.Anexample is
large-scale land reclamation in Hong Kong SAR, China, and
Singapore. Limited
expansion options in the vicinity of high economic density raise
the value of land
significantly.Thisshiftsthecost-
benefitratioinfavoroflargeprotectiveinvestments.
Astricttestiswhetheradeveloperwould,inprinciple,bewillingtopay
apriceforthe
reclaimedorprotectedlandthatreflectsthecostoftheintervention.
All cities are not equal, and the viability of large-scale disaster
reduction
infrastructure will be different in cities with stagnant economies
and little or no
population growth. Today, this is a phenomenon in mature
economies with
demographicdeclinesor incountrieswithstronggeographicshifts
ineconomicand
16. population centers (Pallagst 2008). Examples are the former
socialist countries in
EuropebutalsopartsofScandinaviaandtheMediterraneancountries,
aswellasthe
oldindustrialcoreoftheU.S.midwest.Overtime,givendemographict
rendsinmany
middle-income countries, “shrinking cities” may also emerge in
some of today’s
emergingeconomies,suchasthoseinEastAsia.
Public investments in the wake of Hurricane Katrina sparked
debate over large-
scaleprotective
investmentstoencouragetherebuildingofNewOrleanswithinthe
pre-
Katrinacitylimits.Morethan$200billionoffederalmoneywillbeuse
dtorebuild
the city. Some have argued for providing residents of areas
behind massive flood
control infrastructure with checks or vouchers, and letting them
make their own
decisions about how to spend that money—including the
decision about where to
locateorrelocate.Thechoiceisbetweenspending$200billiononinfra
structurefor
residentsorgivingeachresidentacheckformorethan$200,000—
inaplacewhere
annual per capita income is less than $20,000 and which
reached its peak of
economic importance in 1840.5 There are, of course, political,
cultural, and social
factors that have to be considered in the decision whether to
reconstruct, but this
examplenonethelessshowsthedifficulttradeoffsthatshrinkingcitie
sface.
Reducing urban hazard risk through large-scale infrastructure
19. trieswhere
power is increasingly federal. The challenge is at all levels of
government—from
federal to urban development ministries to small-town mayors.
But the payoffs in
savedlivesandavoideddamageswillbehigh.
Climatechange:Changinghazards,changingdamages
Climate-
relatedhazards(“extremeevents”)haveresultedinanaverageof$59b
illion
ayearinglobaldamages(EMDAT2009)from1990through2008,or0.
1percentof
world product in 2008. Tropical cyclones account for 44
percent, and floods 33
percent.
Even without climate change, economic development and
population growth are
expected to increase the baseline damages from extreme events
over the next
century(figure6.1).Ifthereisnoconsciouschangeinadaptationpolici
estoextreme
events, baseline damages without climate change are expected
to triple to $185
billion a year from economic and population growth alone.
Floods and tropical
cyclonesareexpectedtocontinuetobetheprominentsources.Butheat
wavesare
expectedtobecomemoreprominent.
Thereiswidespreadconcernthatclimatechangecouldincreasefuture
damages
fromextremeevents(IPCC2007a,IPCC2007b,WorldBank2009).Ea
rlierstudies
projected increased tropical cyclone activity alone might result
20. in additional annual
damagesintheUnitedStatesof$100to$800million6andglobalannua
ldamagesby
$630million(Pearceandothers1996).Morerecentstudiessuggesttha
tadoubling
of greenhouse gas concentrations could increase tropical
cyclone damage by 54
percent to 100 percent in the United States and double tropical
cyclone damage
globally.7Somestudiesofhistorictrendsofextremeeventinsurancec
laimsfindthat
extremeeventsarerisingatarapidandevenexponentialrate(SwissRe
2006;Stern
2007).However,thesetrendlineanalysesdonotseparatechangesinth
eexposed
populationandchangesintheextremeeventsthemselves(Pielkeand
Downton2000;
Pielkeandothers2008).
Analysis commissioned for this report uses an integrated
assessment model
combiningscienceandeconomicstoestimatetheadditionaldamagefr
omhazardsas
aresultofclimatechange.8Whiletheanalysisattemptedtoestimateth
eadditional
damagefromallhazards,theanalysisofpotentialchangesinthelocati
on,frequency,
andintensityof
futuretropicalcyclonesisthemostcomplete.Box6.1explains the
methodologyusedfortropicalcyclones.
Figure6.1Current(2008)andprojected(2100)damagesfromextreme
eventswithoutclimatechange
The, World Bank, Bank World, and Nations (UN) United.
Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, edited by World Bank
26. e
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.
becometropicalcyclones.Theremainingeventsconstitutethetropica
lcycloneclimatologyassociatedwiththe
projectionsofeachparticularglobalcirculationmodel.
Climate change is predicted to have very different impacts on
tropical cyclones across the globe. The
intensity,frequency,andtracksoftropicalcyclonesaresensitivetoan
umberofenvironmentalconditions,not
allofwhichchangeinthesamedirectionwhenclimatechanges.Forexa
mple,anincreaseintemperature
increasestropicalcycloneintensity,otherthingsbeingequal,butwin
dshearcaninhibitstormformationand
development.Intensitiesandfrequenciesthereforechangeacrossthe
differentclimatemodels.Boxfigure6.1
showsthepercentagechange ofcoastalpower
dissipation,ameasureof thepotentialdestructivenessof
tropicalcyclonesoverthefourmodelsandfiveoceanbasins.Formosto
ftheclimatemodels,thecyclone
simulationindicatesasmallincreaseintheintensityofstormsintheAtl
anticandNorthwestPacificOceans.
One climate model predicts an increase in intensity at landfall
in the North Indian Ocean and Southern
HemisphereOceanbutmostofthemodelspredictadecreaseinintensit
yintheseoceansornoeffectatall.
Notethatincreases(decreases)instormintensityimplyclimatechang
ecausesdamages(benefits).
Boxfigure6.1Intensityoftropicalcycloneswillvaryoverthefiveocea
nbasinsby2100
30. Withoutclimatechange,expectedtropicalcyclonedamagesincrease
from$26billion
today to $55 billion by 2100 because of the growth in income
and population.10
Climatechangecouldaddabout$54billionworthoftropicalcycloned
amageseach
year, doubling future baseline damage. The estimated increase
in damages from
climatechangevariesacrossclimatemodelsbetween$28and$68billi
on(or51to
124 percent of the future baseline). These estimates are
sensitive to the elasticity
between damages and income. If the income elasticity of
damages were unitary
(instead of 0.41, as estimated), future baseline damages become
$195 billion and
climatechangeaddsabout$178billion––
almostdoublethebaselinedamages.
Averagesmaskextremes
Theestimatesoftheabovedamagesarein“expectedvalue”termspery
ear.Butthe
damages are not expected to come in a steady stream. Even with
the current
climate, 10 percent of tropical cyclones are responsible for 90
percent of the
expecteddamages.Evenifclimatedoesnotchange,damageswillvary
agreatdeal
fromyeartoyearanddecadetodecade.Climatechangeisexpectedtosk
ewthe
damagedistributionoftropicalcyclonesandislikelytocauserare—
butverypowerful
—
tropicalcyclonestobecomemorecommon.Withawarmedclimate,th
34. countryvariationindamagesislikely
Thebulkofthetropicalcyclonedamagesfromclimatechangefallson
NorthAmerica
($30 billion) and Asia ($21 billion). Three countries bear 90
percent of global
damages:theUnitedStates($30billion),Japan($10billion)andChin
a($9billion).
However,whendamagesarescaledbyGDP,theCaribbeanislandsare
amongthe
worsthit.
Theglobaltropicalcycloneanalysisisbasedonnationaldatasetssotha
titisnot
possible to show how effects vary within most countries.
However, for the United
States, detailed data at state and county levels are available
concerning tropical
cyclonedamages,intensities,andfrequencies,allowingspatiallydet
ailedanalysisto
beconducted.Box6.2describestheseresults.AtleastfortheUnitedSt
ates,thereis
awiderangeofeffectswithinthecountry.Itislikelythatforlargecount
riesatleast,
therewillbesubstantialintracountryvariation.
Box6.2Withincountryeffects:ThecaseoftheUnitedStates
TheclimatechangestudyoftropicalcyclonesintheUnitedStatesused
informationaboutthecountiesthat
eachtropicalcyclonestruck.Thespatialscaleoftheanalysiswasmuch
finerthanthecountryscaleforthe
globalanalysis,permittinglargeintracountryvariationsindamagest
obeseen(boxfigure6.2).Mostof the
damagesfromtropicalcyclonesintheUnitedStatesoccurintheGulfst
atesandFlorida(87percent).The
damagesfallquiterapidlyasonemovesnorthalongtheAtlanticseaboa
37. Note:Damagesareinbillions$/yrfor2100.
Source:Mendelsohn,Emanuel,andChonabayashi2010b.
These results provide insight into adaptation to tropical
cyclones. The
preponderance of damages from tropical cyclones is caused by
rare and very
powerfulstorms.Toadapt,onemaybetemptedtobuildextensiveseaw
allsalong
the coast as one might against sea level rise. However, very
powerful storms are
likelytooverwhelmsuchmeasuresmakingthemineffective.Building
higherfortified
sea walls in selected places of high value and population
density (cities) may be
justified but the costs have to be weighed against the damages.
Further, in some
locationsitwillbedifficulttobuildsufficientlyhighseawalls.Inthisc
ase,retreatmay
be the only option. In places that cannot be defended, land use
rules could be
developedtoencouragerobustlanduses,suchasopenspaceandagricu
lture,which
can survive occasional storms. Further research into efficient
adaptation to such
eventsisahighpriority.
The analysis also attempted to estimate additional damages from
other (non-
tropicalcyclone)extremeevents(box6.3).Forreasonsexplainedbelo
w,estimating
suchdamagesisinherentlymorechallenginganduncertain.Conseque
ntly,thispartof
38. theanalysisprovidesapointofdepartureforfurtherworkonlearninga
boutthelikely
directionandextentofthedamagesfromtheseevents.
Box 6.3 Estimating additional damages from climate change-
induced extreme events (other than
tropicalcyclones)
The analysis for the non-tropical cyclone extreme events
(floods, droughts, heat waves, and cold events)
followsasimilarthoughnotidenticalapproach.Itismoreuncertainbe
causethelinkbetweenclimatechange
and these extreme events is more difficult to discern
(Mendelsohn and Saher 2010). For the SRES A1B
emission scenario (IPCC 2000), three climate models (CNRM,
ECHAM, and GFDL) are used to estimate
changesinfuturetemperatureandprecipitationmeansandvariances.
Thelinkbetweendamagesfromthese
eventsandtheseclimatemeasuresisthenmeasuredusinginternationa
ldatafrom1960through2008.The
climateforecastsarethencombinedwiththecoefficientsfromthedam
agefunctiontopredictfuturedamages
in2100.Damagesfromclimatechangewerecalculatedasthedifferenc
ebetweendamagesin2100inthe
warmedclimateanddamagesin2100withthecurrentclimate,whileco
ntrollingforincomeandpopulation
growth.Changesintornadoes,thunderstorms,andhailareassumedtoi
ncreaseinfrequencyinthesame
proportionasfoundinaclimatechangestudyofthunderstormsintheU
S(Trappandothers2007).
The, World Bank, Bank World, and Nations (UN) United.
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Following this approach (and related assumptions detailed in
the background paper), baseline damages
(withoutclimatechange)fromsuchextremeeventsareexpectedtoinc
reasefromtheircurrentlevelof$28
billiontoabout$113billionayearin2100.Climatechangeisthenexpe
ctedtoaddbetween$11billionand$16
billion a year of damages by 2100. The estimates presented in
this analysis are inherently uncertain. The
scientificresultsforthunderstormsintheUnitedStatesmaynotholdin
otherlocationsnormaytheyapplyto
hailandtornadoes.Thedamagefunctionlinkingdamagestoclimateva
riablesmayunderestimatedamages
becausetheavailabledataareatanational levelwhereasmanyof
41. theseextremeeventsoccuratafiner
spatialscale.Forexample,flashfloodsdependonprecipitationinsom
etimessmallareas,whicharepoorly
measuredbyvarianceestimatesacrossmuchlargerareas.Floodsdepe
ndonlocalhydrologicalconditions
that are only crudely accounted for in a global analysis. These
uncertainties are over and above other
uncertaintiesinherentinanyclimateprojections.Muchmoreworkisn
eededtogenerateprecisedamagesfrom
suchevents,anditisimportantnottoplacemuchweightonthespecific
numbers.
Source:WorldBankstaff,basedonMendelsohnandSaher2010.
Estimating impacts of climate change–induced extreme events is
relatively new.
Continued research will improve our understanding and ability
to estimate the
impacts.Betterdatawillalsolikelyhelp.Disastersarepoorlymeasure
devenunder
currentclimaticconditions.Severalcountriesdonotevenreportdama
ges,andthe
globaldamagedatasetsdonotreporteventintensity.Eventheverylarg
estextreme
events, tropical cyclones, are poorly measured on a global scale.
Although the
number of storms has been well documented since the advent of
satellites, the
intensity of these storms is still not measured globally. More
accurate and global
measurementsofbothstormsanddamageswilllikelyleadtobetterund
erstandingof
howclimatechangeleadstodamagesfromhazards.Finally,thereisthe
questionof
scale. It is likely that sub-national analysis would provide even
more accurate
45. measurementsbeganin1993.The2007IPCCreportprojectsagradual
rise
of 0.2 to 0.6 meters over the 21st century from thermal
expansion of the
oceans.ButthedislodgingandmeltingoftheWestAntarcticorGreenl
andice
sheetseventuallycouldraisesealevelsby5–
7meterseach.Thespeedof
suchamassiveincreaseinsealevelisasubjectofcurrentresearch.Itmi
ght
takecenturiesforanimpactofthisscaletounfoldfully,thoughitislikel
ythat
ameterofsealevelrisecouldoccurinthiscentury,withaprobableuppe
r
limitofabouttwometers(Rahmstorf2007).Ineithercase,theemissio
nsto
trigger large-
scalesealevelrisescouldbegeneratedinthiscenturyalone.
Suchriseswouldfloodlargeinhabitedareasanddramaticallychangeh
uman
activity. For example, a five-meter rise would require mass
migrations of
coastalpopulationsandtotalevacuationoflow-
lyingislands.Althoughhuman
societycouldadapt,thischangewouldbeextremelydifficultandcostl
y.
Disruptionofoceancurrents.Large-
scalemeltingofpolaricesheetswould
increasefreshwaterinthecoldNorthAtlanticOcean,weakeningthefl
owof
warm currents from lower latitudes. This diminution of the
Atlantic
ThermohalineCirculation(THC)couldaffecttheclimateofmuchofn
orthern
Europe.13
46. Large-scale disruptions to the global ecosystem. The impacts of
even
gradual climate change could suddenly disrupt a variety of
ecosystem
services.Thesecouldincludereducedbiodiversity,reducedaccessto
water
inthecurrentlocationsofsignificantpopulations,acidificationofoce
ans,and
rapid changes in land cover on a large scale. The social,
economic, and
environmentalconsequencesoftheselosses,notknown,couldbevery
large.
Accelerated climate change from large releases of trapped
methane.
Warming beyond a certain point could release into the
atmosphere large
quantities of methane in oceans and permafrost. This possibility
is an
exampleofa“tippingpoint,”whenlargeandpossiblyirreversiblecha
ngesin
the climate might result from exceeding a poorly understood
threshold.
Because methane resides in the atmosphere for only a few
decades, the
direct effect would be a temporary if powerful acceleration of
temperature
increase.Butsucha largeandrapid increaseintemperaturecould in
itself
leadtosevereandirreversibleconsequences.RapidmeltingofArctics
eaice
isalreadyhappening,andlargeandrapidwarmingcouldsetinmotiono
ther
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factors (such as accelerating melting of heat-reflecting snow
cover) that
causeafurtheraccelerationinclimatechange.
A second concern is that multiple smaller hardships or
disruptions from climate
changeoverashorterperiodcouldcombinetocreateacumulativeeffe
ctworsethan
the sum of the independent hazards. For example, a worsening
of droughts and
damagestoecosystemsinmanyareasoverashortperiodcouldleadtoe
49. conomic
andsocialdisruptionforlargenumbersofpeoplefromthedirecteffect
softhemore
localized impacts. But it could also lead to forced migration,
armed conflict, and
widespreadfailuresofinstitutions.
Gradualorcascading,muchisstillbeingdiscoveredanddebated.Seal
evelrise
estimatesarethemostconcreteindicationofthepotentialforcatastrop
hicimpacts
from climate change. But even sea level rise scenarios involve
uncertainties about
vulnerabilityandadaptation.14Thesizeoflosseswilldependonthesp
eedofchange
insealevelriseaswell,onthedegreeofexposurerelativetocurrentcon
ditions,and
onmeasuresthatcanbetakentoreducetheimpacts.Thepotentialmagn
itudesand
likelihoodsofotherworrisomecatastropherisks,suchasabruptchang
esinlandand
oceanecosystemsorthepotentialfor“runaway”accelerationofclima
techangefrom
methanereleases,aredifficulttogauge.
Adecisionframeworkforcatastrophes
Thetriggersorthresholdsthatcouldsetoffcatastrophesareuncertain,
asarethe
probabilities of occurrence and the consequences, though recent
scientific
assessments indicate that the risks of climate change generally
look worse today
thansomeyearsago(Smithandothers2009).Expertjudgmentsmustb
ebroughtto
bear in the absence of more concrete information. How then
50. should policymakers
weighthecostsandbenefitsofalternativepolicyresponses?
Standardcost-
benefitanalysescanbeextendedtoincorporateriskswithknownor
subjectively specified probabilities, but both probabilities and
types of potential
outcomes are unknown for climate catastrophes. The possibility
of catastrophic
climate change is characterized by deep structural uncertainties
in the science
coupledwithaneconomicinabilitytoevaluatemeaningfullythewelfa
re lossesfrom
high temperatures. (Analyzing the most recent available climate
models, Weitzman
(2009)concludesthatthefutureholdsabouta5percentchancethattem
peratures
will rise by about 10 degrees Celsius—a world difficult to
imagine.) The costs of
mitigation also are uncertain, as they depend on the pace of
future technological
changeandthewaypoliciesandregulationsoperateacrosscountries.
Nevertheless,
some weighing of options by balancing pros and cons is
desirable and uncertainty
doesnotjustifyinaction.Butarguingfortoorapidandaggressiveinter
ventionscould
leadtomeasuresthatareverycostlyrelativetothepotentialreductions
inrisk.
Whileuncertaintycannotjustifyinaction,ithasimplicationsforhowd
ecisionmaking
The, World Bank, Bank World, and Nations (UN) United.
Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, edited by World Bank
The, et al., World Bank Publications, 2010. ProQuest Ebook
Central,
52. tio
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is undertaken. Posner(2004) suggests a tolerable-windows
approach: a range of
plausibleestimatesareestablishedtoascertainalevelofrisk-
reductioneffortwhere
thebenefitsclearlyexceedthecostsandalevelwherecostsclearlyexce
edbenefits.
Policiesthencanbeadoptedthatfallwithinthiswindow.
Whencostsareincurredwellbeforethebenefits,asintakingmeasurest
omitigate
the potential for climate change catastrophes, the selection of a
discount rate to
53. compareearliercostswith laterbenefits
isafocusofuncertaintyanddebate.The
2010 WDR notes there is no consensus on the “correct” discount
rate for climate
change evaluation (and may never be). But decisions about
responses to climate
changecatastropherisksinvolvethepresentgenerationmakingaltrui
sticchoiceson
behalfoffuturegenerations.Thechoiceofalowerdiscountrateforval
uingreduced
long-term climate change hazards involves current generations
reducing their well-
beingforthebenefitoffuturegenerations.Thisisalsotrueforotherinv
estmentsthat
improvetheprospectivewell-beingoffuturegenerations.
Aportfolioofresponses
Dealing with catastrophic threats hinges on policies for dealing
with “fat tail” risks.
Climate change is expected to worsen the distribution of
damages from tropical
cyclonesandthisshiftwill takeplace in theextremerighthandtailof
thedamage
probabilitydistributionfunction,fatteningthetail.Policiestoaddres
stailrisksdepend
inpartonsociety’swillingnesstodevoteresourcestoreducetheproba
bilityandlikely
impactof therisk, relative tobenefits fromotherusesof
thoseresources.Sucha
comparison isverydifficult
toquantify,especiallywhenconfrontedwithwell-known
behavioralbiasesforcatastrophiceventsandwhentherearecompetin
gcatastrophic
risks.Withoutsuchestimations,prudenceinrespondingtocatastroph
icthreatscalls
54. for a portfolio of measures that emphasizes learning and mid-
course corrections
(noting however the tremendous inertia that exists in the climate
system, the built
environment,aswellasininstitutionsandbehaviors,WDR2010).Abr
oaderportfolio
of measures is desirable because of the uncertainties
surrounding the costs and
potential effectiveness of individual measures. Thus,
incorporating several distinct
measuresmakestheresultingsetofpolicyoptionsmorerobust.Thepor
tfolioshould
include:
Rapidemissionsreductiontostabilizegreenhousegasconcentrations
inthe
atmosphereatsomelevellowenoughtoachieveadesiredreductionint
he
perceivedriskofcatastrophe.Differenttechnologicalpathscouldbef
ollowed
toaccomplishthis,anditisvirtuallycertainthatnosingleapproachwo
uldbe
successful.Rapidscalingupofrenewableenergycertainlywouldbep
artof
the response. But given continuing uncertainties about the
future cost and
physicalavailabilityofdifferenttypesofrenewablesandourabilityto
store
energytooffsettheinherentintermittencyofmostrenewables,thisres
ponse
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also would require addressing expanded nuclear power and
introducing
carboncaptureandgeologicalstorageonaverylargeorevenglobalsca
le.
Variouslargescaleadaptationmeasuresimplementedacrosstheworl
dover
the medium term, beyond efforts by individuals and single
governments, to
anticipate and significantly reduce the potential impacts of a
climate
catastrophe.Prioritymeasureswouldincludeextensivechangesinlan
duse
policies and practices to limit further increases in coastal area
57. vulnerability
andtoexpandandfortifyprotectedareastosafeguardcriticalecosyste
ms.
The adaptation measures could even include large-scale
anticipatory
relocationsofespeciallyvulnerablepopulations,suchasthosevulner
ableto
anticipated sea level rises and increases in storm surges. With
such
relocation would come the need to rebuild infrastructure and
other fixed
capital.
These two categories of actions may not be enough to
satisfactorily lower the
chanceofcatastrophes,particularlyiftheworldcannotcometoanagre
ementabout
sharing the burden of mitigation efforts. It is therefore also
necessary to consider
geoengineeringasanotherpotentialmeasuretoreducetheriskofcatas
trophe(box
6.4).
Dealingwith the threatofcatastrophicclimatechange isanexercise
inreducing
uncertainty with only a limited ability to assess the results.
Considerations in
developingaportfolioof responses include thecostsof
thevariousmeasures, the
lead times needed (particularly important when some
uncertainties may decline as
scienceandtechnologyimprovebutinertiaremainsverylarge),andth
einformation
abouttheirprospectiveeffectiveness.Theportfoliocanchangeoverti
measmoreis
learned about the nature of catastrophe risks and the costs and
58. effectiveness of
differentresponses.Sincenoclimatecatastrophehasbeenexperience
dinrecorded
memory, people may underestimate or overestimate this “virgin
risk” (Kousky and
Zeckhauser2010).
Box6.4Geoengineering’spotentialandpitfalls
SomeeffectsofadoublinginCO2concentrationcouldinprinciplebeo
ffsetbyblockingasmallpercentageof
sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. The most commonly
discussed option for reducing absorbed solar
radiationinvolvesseedingtheupperatmospherewithparticulatematt
ertoreflectsunlight.Otherapproaches
include increasing the reflectivity of the earth (massive rooftop
retro-fits), changing cloud cover, and even
building mirrors in space as a planetary “sunshade.” Other types
of geoengineering include increased
absorptionofCO2byoceansorgiantmachinestocaptureCO2fromthe
atmosphere.Allthesemeasures
haveknownsideeffects,someofwhichwould
induceunknownbutpossibly largechanges in theclimate
system.
Geoengineeringcouldarrestorpotentiallyavertcatastrophesinduce
dbyclimatechange.Butadjustingthe
earth’stemperaturebyreflectingsunlightmayadverselyaffectotherc
limatevariables,suchasprecipitation.
Oneclearpitfallofgeoengineeringistechnological.Launchingreflec
tiveparticlesintotheupperatmosphereto
increasetheearth’sreflectivitywouldneedtobecarefullycontrolledf
ortworeasons.First,theparticlesremain
The, World Bank, Bank World, and Nations (UN) United.
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61. necessarytoprovidesomeprotectionfromfurtherwarmingwhileeffe
ctivelylimitinganysideeffects.
Asecondreasoncomesfromthestrongincentivestodeploysuchtechn
ologiesunilaterally.Theproblemof
internationalcooperationinmanaginggeoengineeringistheinverseo
fachievinginternationalcoordinationfor
drastic mitigation. With mitigation, the incentives for acting
unilaterally are extremely weak because of the
strongincentivetofree-
ride.Withgeoengineering,givenapotentialforlowdirectcostsandfai
rlyimmediate
directbenefitsofimplementation,incentivestoactunilaterallycould
beverystrong—especiallyinthefaceof
severethreatsfromclimatechange.16So,itmaybeimpossibleforcou
ntriestocrediblycommittoabstaining
from geoengineering. Also, how might potentially beneficial
uses of geoengineering be distinguished from
hostilemeasurestoinflictharmonothercountries?Moreover,howwo
uldpotentialconflictsamongcountries
overtheimplementationofgeoengineeringberesolved?Forexample,
supposethatcountryAseekstolocally
coolitsclimateandstimulateraininanefforttoprotectitsharvestandst
aveofffamine.ButwhatifcountryA’s
application of geoengineering had side effects that threatened
crops or water supplies in country B? This
questionisparticularlytroublingifcountryBabutsA,andisahistorica
lrivalorenemy.Forthesereasons,it
wouldbepreferabletoundertakeinternationallyfundedandcoordina
tedresearchongeoengineeringprecisely
sothatitspotentialapplicabilityandriskscanbewidelyunderstood.
Source:WorldBankstaff.
Examiningcurrentandpotentialcostsofalternativemeasuresandcon
sideringtheir
62. effectivenesscanhelpprotectagainstpossiblebiases.Thepotentialfo
rcatastrophe
certainly makes aggressive action more desirable, but how much
more remains
uncertain. Postponing sound measures to curtail the growth of
greenhouse gas
concentrations will reduce the effectiveness of “crash”
emissions abatement and
massivelyincreasecosts.15Similarly,postponingstrongerlanduse
measurestolimit
growth of coastal settlements will greatly increase the cost of
later adaptation
throughrelocation.
Anyportfolio
foraddressingcatastropheriskwillneedtobeadjustedover time.
Onerobustconclusionfromthecomparisonofresponseoptionsisthat
asignificant
investmentinreducingthecostofimplementationandincreasingthee
ffectivenessof
eachoptionshouldbeahighpriority.Effortstoimproveunderstandin
gofthepotential
ofgeoengineeringandtolowerthecostsandpotentialrisksofveryrapi
dmitigation
options are a high priority. Given the likely high costs of large-
scale anticipatory
adaptationmeasures,amorecautiousapproachwouldfocusfirstonin
creasingthe
prospects for the survival of critical ecosystems and placing
some limits on the
growthofsettlementsinmoreat-riskareas.
ConnectingthethreeCs:Cities,climate,catastrophes
Thefutureisalwaysuncertain,yetitseemsclearthatcitieswillgrowan
dthatclimate
willchange,althoughdisparately.Wellmanagedcitiescanreducethei
65. of increased
conflicts: armed struggles have historically been associated with
droughts and
desertificationinAfrica,forexample.Butsquabblingoverresourcesl
eadstoconflict
whencompetingclaimscannotbepeacefullyresolvedandwheninstit
utionstoresolve
conflicting claims are inadequate. There is thus a large premium
on strengthening
institutionsforresolvingtomorrow’sresource-
relatedconflictsmorepeacefully.
Theseoutcomesrequiremuch.Urbanizationshiftsthebalanceofprev
entionfrom
individualmeasurestocollectiveaction.Althoughgovernmentswill
havealargerrole,
they must harness the market in better ways, with greater
sensitivity to when and
how prices get distorted. For collective prevention to be
effective, national
governmentsandcitiesmustdeliverbetterservices,includingpreven
tion.Theymust
design,build,andmaintaininfrastructureandbemoreawareof—
andresponsiveto—
whatindividualscanandcannotdo:providingdetailedseismicmapso
ffaultlines,for
example,butallowingdevelopersandpeoplewholiveinbuildingstod
ecidehowto
construct safe structures. Knowledge and know-how are needed
more than funds;
without them, the funds would be poorly allocated. Global
institutions could also
spreadwordofwhatcanbedoneandhelpgovernmentsintheirtasks.
Whiletherearegoodreasonsforhope,therearealsoinstancesofconcer
n.Take
70. Climate change will not adversely affect all cities, and while
ports may be
important,itisdifficulttopredictwhichwillthrive.Inthe18thcentury
,fewthoughtthat
New York, which then ranked well behind Boston and
Charleston, would become
America’s largest and richest city, especially since Baltimore
and Philadelphia had
better ports. Jakarta’s prosperity may well continue (it
contributes 25 percent of
nationalnon-
oilGDP).Andifitdoes,itwouldbeinthesamesituationasRotterdam
today:havingtoconsiderexpensivemeasurestoprotectitspeopleand
assetsfrom
floods and sea surges. But such choices would be less stark, and
ultimately less
wasteful, if other Indonesian cities in safer locations grew.
Jakarta is not unique;
MexicoCity,Mumbai,andmanyothersaresimilar.
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Figure6.4FifteenyearsofurbanizationinJakarta,beforeandafter
Source:HahmandFisher2010.
Cities, climate, and pending catastrophes are altering the
disaster prevention
landscape.Whilehazardswillalwaysbewithus,disastersshowthatso
methinghas
failed.Butdeterminingwhathasfailedanddecidingonthecorrective
measuresare
notalwaysobvious.AnddebatingwhetherHurricaneKatrinaorCyclo
neNargiswasa
resultofclimatechangedetractsattentionfrompoliciesthatcontinuet
omispricerisk,
subsidizeexposure,reduce individuals’
incentivestoreducerisk,andpromoterisky
behaviorinthelongrun.
Peopleriseoutofpovertythroughbettertechnology,greatermarketac
cess,and
more investment inactivities thatspillbenefits
fromonesetofeconomicactors to
othersthroughgreaterinterdependence,higherproductivity,andstro
ngerinstitutions.
76. shoutingthroughthedoortowakemeupandtheswayingaswetookthes
tairsdown
four floors. Some things from that day are hazy, but other
details are etched
permanentlyinmymemory.
ItwastheRepublicDayholiday.Thegroundwasstillshakingwhenwe
emerged
fromtheflatandIcouldseethetalltelecomtowerswaying.Itriedtorem
emberwhat
Iknewaboutearthquakes,anditwaspreciouslittle.Immediatelyafter
realizingthatI
had survived a deadly disaster, and assuming that the
earthquake had struck just
Ahmedabad, I realized that my parents, who lived in the city of
Bhuj some 400
kilometersaway,wouldbeworriedwhentheygotnewsoftheearthqua
ke,especially
becauseIwasnotreachablethroughthemostlydisabledphonesystem.
Meanwhile,thedamageinAhmedabadwasbecomingapparent:peopl
ewentabout
onscootersandmotorcyclestomakesurethattheirrelativesandfriend
sweresafe.
Aswewereunsureofthesafetyofourmultistorybuilding,aclosefrien
dvisitedto
checkuponme.Hetookmeandmyroommatestohisuncle’sgroundflo
orhome,
whichwasrapidlybecominganemergencyshelterforothersintheneig
hboringhigh-
risebuildings.
News of the size and scope of the earthquake slowly began
trickling in through
transistor radios. I learned later in the evening that Delhi and
Mumbai had felt the
79. edtoask
others(someincars,othersonfootandcarts)abouttheconditionofroa
dsandthe
towns they came from, and the news was disturbing. People
spoke of “all being
destroyed,”andthiswashownewsspread.Iwitnessedthedestructionf
irsthand,
andIhadastrangefeelingwhenIsawthemanygovernmentbuildingsd
estroyed,
includingpolicequarters.ThiswasstrangebecauseIalwaysthoughto
f thesarkar
(government) as invincible, so it was unnerving to see it as
equally vulnerable and
incapacitated as the rest of us. In contrast, I was overwhelmed
by trucks that
stopped to give people bottled water and packets of food, and
realized that
volunteerswerealreadyorganizingrelief.Someonethrewmeabottle
ofwater,andI
wasabouttohanditbackwhenIrealizedthatIshouldjustacceptit.
Thenormal6to8hourjourneytook12hours.EventhoughIwasusedtos
eeing
Bhujwithoutelectricity,itwaspitchdarklikeneverbefore.WhenIrea
chedmyhome,
to my utmost relief, I found my parents and neighbors
assembling a makeshift
tarpaulinshelteronthestreet.Theytoldmewhathappened:myfatherw
aspraying
indoorsandmymotherwas in thekitchenwhentheyfelt theshaking.
Instinctively,
theyranoutdoorsfromthebackdoortothegardenwheretheyheldonto
apapaya
treeuntiltheviolentshakingsubsided.
MyfatherhadthehousebuiltwellunderhissupervisionjustbeforeIwa
80. sborn,and
itwithstoodthequakebutacantileveredoverhangcamecrashingdow
n.Hadthey
escapedfromthefrontdoor,theoverhangwouldhavehurtthem.Thequ
akecracked
thewallsandhaddestroyedallelectronicsandcrockery.Ialsofoundou
tthenthat
becausepowerandphonelinesweredown,myfatherhadthepresenceo
fmindto
go to the intercity bus terminal and give slips of paper with my
name and phone
numberandthatofotherrelativestostrangersfleeingthecity,askingth
emtocall
andconveyhiswell-
being.Severalofthesemessagesgotthroughincomingdaysto
ourrelativesinvariouscities.
Day 3. Exhausted physically and emotionally, about 30 of us
slept outside that
night.Despitethechillywinternight,nobodywaswillingtoentertheir
homes.Early
next morning, we were awakened by an aftershock, only to see
an electric pole
hangingbythewires justaboveour tarpaulin.
Isupposeweweredoubly lucky: to
havesurvivedthe initialquakeandthentohavesurvivedpossible
injuries fromthis
aftershock.Werealizedthatsuchaftershockswouldcontinueforseve
raldays,sowe
decidedtolockupourBhujhomeandmovetoourancestralhomeinRaj
kot(some
240 kilometers away). It seemed unaffected by the quake, and
we monitored the
mediaandgotnewsfromfriendsaboutthescaleofthedevastation.
83. Afterseveralinquiries,wefoundhim,fullybandagedfromthewaistdo
wnataprivate
hospitalinRajkot.Hiswifeandsonsurvivedwithminorinjuriesfromt
heircollapsed
home,buthis14-year-
olddaughternevermadeitoutofthebedroom.Mr.Kathiwala
wasburiedundertheoverheadtankforhoursbeforeneighborsrescued
him.
Even in the midst of such misfortune and the risk of losing a
leg, Mr. Kathiwala
recountedhowgratefulhewastotheDaudiVohracommunity—
acloselyknitgroupof
prosperoustradersthathebelongedto.
WhenDaudiVohramembersinothertownsheardofthediresituationi
nAnjar,they
hiredtruckstobringfirstaid.Theytransportedtheinjuredtohospitals
andthemore
severely hurt to larger cities with better care. In addition to
providing for medical
treatment,accommodation,meals,andbasichouseholdnecessities,t
heDaudiVohra
raisedfundstopayforthebestavailablemedicalcare.Theyalsogavefa
miliesRs.
5,000 in cash for incidental expenses. This humane support
greatly alleviated the
traumaoftheearthquake.
Threeweekslater.Lifehadtogoon,andIeventuallyreturnedtoAhmed
abadfor
thescheduledexaminations—
onlytofindanoticethattheywerepostponedbythree
monthsbecauseofthedamageduniversitybuilding.Istayedwithafrie
ndbecause
ourfourthfloorflatwasnotconsideredsafe.Icametoknowonedaythat
84. theUN
disastermanagementteamwasseekingvolunteerstoworkinareasrav
agedbythe
disaster,andIjoinedthemexactlythreeweeksaftertheearthquake.
Helping with post-disaster assistance enabled me to see things
from a different
perspective. Statistics cannot fully capture what happened. The
poorest suffered
mostandtooklongesttorecover.Inmanytownstherewaslittledamage
inwealthy
areaswithwell-builtbungalow-stylehouses,but
thepoorlybuiltstructuresof those
lesswelloffmostlycollapsed.Itwasamazinghowquicklythegovern
mentrestored
life-
lineservicesintheworstaffecteddistricts.Itembarkedonahugerecon
struction
program, and an efficient model for community-based recovery
and reconstruction
evolved.
Not all that I saw and heard was this inspiring. The old walled
city of Bhuj was
largelydestroyed,andIheardtalesthatinsonibazaar,wheregoldsmit
hsplytheir
trade, the survived shop owners offered passers-by money to
recover the gold
ornamentsandstrongboxesfrominsidetheteeteringbuildings.Ialsoh
eardthatthe
foreignfoodpacketswerenotservingtheirpurposebecausethelargel
yvegetarian
populationwasaversetoconsumingfoodinwrapperswithanundeciph
erableforeign
language.Whilemanyvolunteersweretirelesslyhelpingwithreliefa
ndrecovery,a
87. epeoplecare
forothers:butwithlimitedresourcesattheirhand,everyonehelpsthei
rcommunities
andfriendsfirst—
andonlythenanyothers.TheGujaratearthquakewaspivotalinthe
paradigmshiftfromemergencyresponsetoriskreductionandprepare
dness.Many
who believed that natural disasters like earthquakes cannot be
prevented are now
activelyhelpingreducingthedisasterrisksintheirownlivesandaroun
dthem.
Thelongest45minutesinAceh
December26,2004.ItwasSundaymorningaround8a.m.Myparentsw
ereaboutto
leave for the Hajj that week, expecting friends and relatives to
say goodbye. My
fatherwas in theshower,andmysisterandacousinwere in
thekitchenwashing
dishes.Then,theearthquakestruck—
bigandlong.MaybeitwasoneofGod’sways
toremindusofourinsignificanceinthelargerschemeofthings.Weran
outside.
Outside.Theshakingfinallystopped.Buthavingexperiencedearthqu
akesbefore,
weknewtherewouldbeaftershocksandwaitedoutside.Then,fivemin
uteslater,as
expected, another earthquake, this time smaller but longer.
More crying. I silently
recitedmyprayers,trustedthatGodwouldtakecareofthis,tawakkal
—that’swhat
wesayinIslam.Itrelaxesusslightly.Withthethirdquake,peoplestart
edtocryand
screamevenmore.
88. Thenallofasudden,wesawourneighborsrunningtowardus,screamin
g“RUN…
RUN…TOTHEMOSQUE.”Withoutknowingwhy,weallstartedtoru
n.Somepeople
tried to lock their houses before running. None knew what was
in store. We then
heardahorrible,helicopter-
likesound,butmuchlouder.WhilerunningIlookedbehind
andthere itwas.Darkbrown,high,amonsterwave3–
4metershigh!And itwas
approachingfast.
Wemadeit to themosque,whichwasnot far
fromourhouse.Themenquickly
askedall
thewomenandchildrentogoupstairs(themosquehadtwofloors).The
mosquewasbigandhadmanypillarswithnowallssothewatercouldjus
tflowin
easily. My dad insisted that he would stay downstairs, and the
rest of the family
insistedequally thatwewouldnotgoupstairs.
Itwasaverydifficultmoment.The
water,therealready,hadrisentomywaist.
We had to make a quick decision. Then, we compromised. Since
she was
physicallystrongerthanbothmeandmymom,mysisterstayeddownst
airswithmy
dadwhilemymomandIwentup.Wehuggedandkissedandcried.Thew
aterwas
nowuptomychestandtheearthwasstillshaking.Themosquecouldha
vecollapsed
butwereallyhadnooption.
Upstairs.Isawmanyofmyneighbors,cryingandpraying.Thoughmyh
eartwas
95. with at least 100
quakes.Wekeptrunningoutsidealmostevery5minutes—
sodepressing.Ikepton
hearingsounds.Helicoptersorwater?Notclear. I feltdeeplyguilty
for leavingmy
friendintheclinicandprayedthatshesurvived.LaterthatweekIfound
outthatshe
didn’tmakeit.Better,perhaps,sinceeverybodyinherfamilyhadalsod
ied.
Theassistance.Wehadtorationourfoodsupplies.Fuelwasscarce.My
mom—
so strong throughout—broke down when she found out that her
only sister had
passedaway.Shejustsatinthecorner,prayingeveryday.Shehadonlyo
nedress
towear—
theonethatshehadrunin.MysisterandIcouldatleastborrowsomeof
thegirls’clothes.Underwearwasabigissueforallofus.Idon’tneedtoe
xplainit
further.
We heard rumors that assistance had arrived but was piled up in
the airports.
Roadsremainedblocked,soonlyhelicopterscouldget
topeople.Allwecoulddo
wastobepatientandtightenourbelts.
Afewdayslater,mybrotherandunclecamewithacarfulloffood.They
hadflown
toMedan—theclosestcitytoBandaAceh—
anddrivenhome.Ittookthem14hours.
Theyalsobroughtsomeclothes,cleanunderwear,andcash.
Later, we received more cash and other types of humanitarian
assistance from
96. many friends from foreign countries. Each day, random people
came to the house
andbroughtusassistance.Wewillneverforgetthat.Indonesianvolunt
eers,national
andforeignsoldiers,localandinternationalNGOs,religiousgroups,n
ameit.Iwould
say the Red Cross, volunteers, and soldiers were crucial in
removing debris to
restoreroadlinks.
Things were a lot better after the second week. Among the
assistance we
received,theonlythingsIdislikedwerethefortifiedbiscuitsfromWF
P.Westayedin
thehouseforaboutamonth.Ithadtwosmallbedroomsbutsomehowwe
managed,
along with many others who came as well for shelter. We
wanted to rent another
place to lessen the burden but couldn’t find anything affordable.
It’s amazing how
rentalpriceshadsoaredsohigh.Peoplewouldrenttheirhomesonlyto
UNandNGO
offices.Amedium-sizehousewasaround100dollarsaday.
Home?Backhometocheckthedamage,wefoundoutwehadlostsevera
lwalls.
Twodeadbodieswerefloatinginthekitchen—oneofa5-year-
oldgirlandtheother
of a man. The house looked scary and dark—full of trees,
garbage, and water. I
lookedatmydadwithallhisgrayhairwithwateruphiswaisttryingtosal
vageour
belongings.Myfatherisacivilservantabouttoretireintwoyears,and
mymomisa
teacher.Wewerenotpoor,butwewerenotricheither.Thatwasouronly
100. acceptable to reduce the amount of cement or concrete or steel
to cut down the
price.Weneedtorememberthatlocalengagementstendtoworkbettert
hanpaper
regulations.Weneedtoensurethatpolicies,regulations,andknowled
gearrivewhere
peoplelive.
Commonthreads
Notwodisastersunfoldthesameway,andnotwopeopleareexactlyali
ke.Butthe
twonarrativesrevealcommonthreads.Family,friends,andneighbors
arethefirstto
help.Aid,thoughuseful,comesmuchlater.Knowingthehazardsandb
eingprepared
(knowingwhattoexpectanddo)arereallyuptoyou.
Youcanalsoaskmoreofyourgovernment:notmorespending,butmor
eeffective
preventionmeasuresandmoreinformationabouthazards,suchasmap
soffaultlines
andfloodplains.Makingitreadilyaccessiblewouldhelp.Andwhendi
sastersexpose
weaknesses,makesureyourrepresentativeslookintotheunderlyingc
ausesandtell
youwhatisbeingdonetopreventitfromhappeningagain.
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103. andrelief“softentheblow,”andthischapterexaminestheirrolesintur
n.
Thechapterbeginswiththebasicsoftheinsurancebusiness:theadvant
agesof
poolingandtransferringrisktothosewillingtobearitandhowinsurers
dealwiththe
many complications that arise from adverse selection and moral
hazard. Insurance
clearly increases a person’s choice and thus well-being: the
contract specifies the
resources transferred from one person to another when the event
(such as a
disaster)occurs.Indoingso,
itshiftstheriskfromtheindividualtothepoolofthe
insured.Butsofteningadisaster’sblowconcomitantlydilutestheince
ntivetoprevent
—unless the premium reflects the risk and the prevention
measures a person
undertakes.
Commercial
insurancecompaniescalculatethepremiausingdetaileddataonthe
frequencies and intensities of hazards and how they affect
exposed assets. The
premia must also cover the considerable costs of administration,
marketing, and
monitoring.Manypeoplemayforgoinsuranceifthepremiaaretoohig
h.Andwhile
parametric insurance—a type of insurance that specifies the
payout based on a
parameterrelatedtothehazardbutunrelatedtoactualdamagesincurre
d—reduces
someofthemonitoringcosts,suchschemeshavelowpenetrationrates
indeveloping
countrieswheretheyhavebeenintroduced.
104. Whenaninsuranceindustrydoesdevelop,itinvariablydrawsthegove
rnmentinas
regulator, as provider (in many countries), or as reinsurer.
Governments inevitably
addapoliticaldimension,andpressurestosubsidizethepremiamayin
crease.The
U.S.experiencewithfloodinsuranceshowsthatthisisnotjustanissuei
ndeveloping
countries. Too low a premium encourages construction in
hazard-prone areas,
therebyincreasingexposureandvulnerability.
Thechapternextturnstowhethergovernmentsshouldbuyinsurancet
ohavefunds
to spend after a disaster, simply borrow, or set aside funds in
reserve. Many are
alreadyindebtedandeventhosewithlowdebtsmayfinditdifficulttob
orrowwhen
theymostneedto.Politicianswhowanttospendonworthyprogramste
ndtodeplete
fundssetasideinareservefund.Toavoidthis“honeypotsyndrome,”g
overnments
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may purchase insurance. The World Bank’s Catastrophe Risk
Deferred Drawdown
Optionandothersuchfacilitiescanhelpcountries.
While individualsarerisk-averse, therearegoodreasons
forsomegovernments
actingontheirbehalftoberisk-neutral.Arisk-
neutralentitywouldbuyinsuranceonly
ifthepremiumwerelowerthantheprobabilitytimestheexpectedloss(
whichleaves
nothing to cover the insurer’s costs). But the likelihood of a
disaster that is large
relativetoaneconomy’ssize(asintheCaribbean,wherethemainunkn
owniswhich
island will be hit) may make some governments risk-averse,
especially when rapid
accessto
fundsafterdisasterscouldbedifficultorcostly.Suchgovernments,an
d
those seeking to avoid the “honey pot syndrome,” would benefit
107. from buying
insurance. The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility
pools disaster risks
regionally, helping countries purchase insurance less
expensively than otherwise.
Comparing prices offered by insurance firms against those in
capital markets, as
Mexicodidwhenissuingcatastrophebonds,isalsoadvantageous.
The chapter then examines remittances sent by private
individuals and groups
abroadtohelppeoplecopewithadisaster.Remittancesaredirectedtov
ictimsand
theirsurvivors,evenwhenthedisasterdoesnotattractanymediapubli
city.Thefunds
arrive quickly without the involvement of governments or other
organizations. But
sometimes unnecessary government policies (controls on capital
flows, dual
exchangerates)impedearrivalofthefunds.Remittancesthatarrivebe
foreadisaster
also help with prevention. Although remittances augment
consumption, particularly
consumerdurables, theyarealsousedto
improvethequalityofhousing.Mudand
strawhutsgivewaytohousesbuiltofbrickandcement.Privateremitta
ncesalsohelp
develop banking and money transfer facilities, which in turn
strengthen the area’s
commercialtieswithotherpartsofthecountryandtheworld.
Last,thechapterexaminestheroleofaidinprevention.Post-
disasteraidcanalso
bedouble-
edged:whilesomeaidiswarranted,itcanalsogiverisetotheSamaritan
’s
108. dilemma—theinability tocrediblydenyhelpfollowingadisaster
tothosewhohave
not taken sufficient prevention measures. Some new but not
very strong evidence
shows that post-disaster aid could reduce prevention. Donors
should therefore be
awareof thedisincentives theymaycreate,andconcern for
thevictimsshouldbe
moderatedbytheeffectonincentives.
Insurance:Usefulifthepremiumispricedright
Aswithanyvoluntarytransaction,
insurancebenefitsallpartiestothecontract: the
insurerbenefitsfromthebusinessandtheinsuredreducetheadversity
oftheworst
statesofnaturebygivingupsomeofthebenefitsinthegoodstates.
Thebasicsofthebusiness
Insurerstakeprideincoveringuniqueriskslikeanoperasingercatchin
gacold,ora
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racehorsebreakinga leg.Butsuch insurance
isasideshow,andthebulkof their
businesscoversmoremundane,predictable,anddiversifiablerisks(s
uchaslifeand
propertyinsurance).Considerinsuringhousesagainstfire:onecanno
ttellwhenandif
aparticularhousewillcatchfire,butdataonpastfiresallowthenumber
ofhouse
fires in an area to be reliably predicted with probabilities
attached. Making the
average lossmorepredictableallowsfirmsto insure
individualhousesagainst fire:
theinsurercollectsanannualpayment(premium)fromrisk-
aversehomeowners(the
insured) and promises to pay (the insured amount could be
actual damages or a
specifiedsum)iftheirhouseburnsdown(thetrigger).Theaggregatean
nualpremia
collected from the insured must cover the insurer’s operating
costs and the likely
payouts. And if unexpectedly fewer houses burn down, the
insurer has a surplus
beyonditsnormalprofits.
112. insured’s price
sensitivitytopremiathatmustcoverthesecosts.
Thecostsresultinapremiumthatgreatlyexceedsexpectedlosses,buts
ufficiently
risk-averse people buy insurance all the same because it
protects them from the
devastating financial implications of a disaster. Insurance does
not “shift the loss”
collectively:theinsuredpayforthelossesthroughtheirpremia,andth
osewhodonot
makeaclaim,essentiallypayforotherswhodo.
Insurance can be a competitive industry, but some economists
find that there is
littlecompetition(insurersareexemptfromantitrustlawsintheUnite
dStates)orthat
costsarenotdrivendown.Administrativeandmarketingcostsareabo
ut35percent
of aggregate premia in the United Kingdom (the insured get
roughly 50 percent in
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payouts,afigurethatisbroadlysimilarintheUnitedStates)wherepriv
ateinsurance
firms compete, in contrast to 10 percent in Spain where a state-
owned monopoly
provides coverage (Von Ungern-Sternberg 2004). Germany
privatized its provincial
monopolyprovidersunderaEuropeanUniondirectiveonlytofindthat
operatingand
administrative costs rose as a consequence and insurance premia
were raised
between35and75percentinfiveyears.
Regardless of who owns insurers, governments invariably get
involved as
regulatorsifnotasprovidersbecausebuyers“gettheproduct”(thepro
misedpayout)
only after a disaster; and the insurer may find some reason to
refuse payment,
reducecoverage,orgooutofbusiness.
Thegovernment’sinevitableinvolvement
115. Insuranceislimitedinthedevelopingworld,butalargeindustryinman
ydeveloped
countries.1 These countries’ governments are involved in each
of them, though in
differentways.Courts,notgovernments,enforcecontracts,but
thepayouts to the
insuredmaybedelayedordenied.Insurersinvariablywriteandinterpr
ettheclauses
to theiradvantage(“the fineprint”),andseemingly
fairclausesarenotalwaysso.
British insurers and the insured could cancel a policy with
seven days’ notice, and
insurers cancelled coverage in 1997 when it became apparent
that the erupting
volcanoonMontserratwoulddestroyeverybuildingontheisland,aki
ntocancelling
coverageafterafirehasstarted(VonUngern-Sternberg2004).
Inthe1800s,insurancewasfornamedperils,withcoveredlossesstem
mingonly
from the specified risk. In the 1930s, all peril property
insurance became more
common.Whateverthecoverage,governmentstrytoensurethatinsur
ershonortheir
contracts(consumerprotection),andwhenthisrequires insurers
tohaveadequate
funds(solvency),regulationsoftenextendtoapprovingthepremia.T
hepremiaare
sometimeshigh,andtoensurecoverage,propertyinsuranceissometi
mesmandatory
(asinGermanyandmanySwisscantons);butsometimespopulistpress
urescause
premia to be too low (as in the United States with flood
insurance), needlessly
increasingexposureinhazardousareas.
Thefertile lands in the floodplainsattract
116. farmers,andmanysettlements in the
United States are periodically inundated. Sympathy for the
victims would prompt
publicassistance,andsettlerswouldrebuild in
thesamearea.Afterseveralmajor
floodsinthe1950sand1960s,privateinsurerswerenolongerwillingt
ocoverfloods
(which became an “uninsurable” risk), and the U.S. government,
recognizing that it
wasunableorunwillingtodenyassistancetothoseaffected,establishe
dtheNational
FloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP)in1968.
Thepremiawereset lowto inducehomeowners tobuy theNFIP
insurance,but
veryfewpeoplevoluntarilypurchasedcoverage(KunreutherandMic
hel-Kerjan2009).
The federal government then required this coverage as a
condition for federally
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insuredmortgages,butthemandatewaspoorlyenforcedandmanypeo
plecanceled
theirpolicies,especiallyiftherewasnofloodforseveralyears,andoth
erspurchased
insurance just after a flood (Michel-Kerjan and Kousky 2010).
They examine more
thanfivemillioninsurancepolicies,thelargestfloodinsurancesampl
eeverstudied,
and find thatof theonemillionresidentialNFIPflood
insurancepolicies inplace in
Floridain2000,athirdwerecancelledby2002andabouttwo-
thirdswerecancelled
by2005.Therewasnoeffectivemechanismtopreventordiscouragem
orepeople
from settling in the areas known to be hazardous: the NFIP is a
federal program,
whilezoningandinsuranceregulationarestateissues,andlocalpoliti
ciansreflected
the settlers’ desires. The number of policies nationwide
managed by the NFIP
increasedfrom2.5million in1992to5.6million in2007and,
innominal terms,the
property value covered rose from $237 billion to $1,100 billion
119. during the same
period.
TheNFIP’sothershortcomingswereexposedafterHurricaneKatrina
floodedmuch
ofNewOrleansin2005.TheNFIPcoversfloods,butprivateinsurance
coverswind
damage.Manydisputesaroseoverwhoshouldpaywhendamagefrom
windcould
not be easily separated from that by floods (Kunreuther and
Michel-Kerjan 2009).
Victimsweregiventherunaroundandpayoutsweredelayed.
In a background paper for this report, Kunreuther and Michel-
Kerjan note how
multihazard insurancecanaddress insurer-
insureddisputesbyhavinghomeowners’
coveragemovefromthetraditionalone-
yearinsurancecontracttomultiyearcontracts
(say10or15years)tiedtotheproperty(nottheownerasisthecasetoday
).The
premiawouldreflect insurers’bestestimateof theriskover
thatperiodandwould
assure policy holders of coverage. The possible denial of
coverage was a major
concerninhazard-
proneareasbecauseinsurerscanceledpoliciesfollowingthe1992
and2005hurricaneseasons.FollowingHurricaneAndrew,Floridapa
sseda law in
1992limitingthecancellationofpoliciesbyinsurersto5percentayear
atthestate
levelandto10percentatthecountylevel(JamettiandvonUngern-
Sternberg2009).
Bothinsurersandhomeownerscancelpoliciesfordifferentreasons,a
ndthepremia
aresubjecttopoliticalpressures.Thesemajorchangesingovernment
120. policyrequire
appropriateregulatoryauthorityanddecisions(KunreutherandMich
elKerjan2008).
Comprehensive,multihazard
insurancewillentailhigherpremia.Somepolicyholders
may think they are being charged for coverage they do not need
(a person in an
earthquakeareanotpronetohurricanesandfloodsmayonlyhavequak
einsurance),
buttheywouldnotbeoverchargedifpremiareflectriskaccurately.Wh
etherpremia
accuratelyreflectrisksbecomesallthemoreimportant.
Governmentinvolvementinevitablybringspoliticalpressures;andv
estedinterests
and populist pressures exist in all countries, though they
manifest themselves
differently.Insurancesubsidiesareusuallyregressive:thosewithass
etstoinsureare
generallybetteroffthanthepoorersegmentsthatoftenpayindirecttax
esthatpay
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forthesubsidies.Butunderpricedinsuranceisnotalwaystheresultofg
overnment
pressures. Insurerssometimesmakemistakesormay
takeunwarrantedrisksand
then discover that the risks were greater than they assumed. To
compensate for
thesemistakes,insurersoftenfindreasonstodenypayments,redefine
therisksthat
are covered (terrorism was made a separate risk that got
excluded), and raise
deductiblesandpremia.2
Pricingthepremium
Thepremiumisanimportantprice:
toolow,andexcessiveconstructioninexposed
areasandinsufficientpreventionresult;toohigh,andfewbuyinsuran
ce.Calculating
theappropriatepremiumisnottrivial:probabilitydistributionsandlo
ssfunctionsmust
beestimated,andtherelevantpoolandobservablecharacteristicsthat
correlatewell
123. withtheunderlyingrisk(anunobservable)mustbeidentified.Thesees
timatesarea
firm’s “proprietary information.” And while competition may
drive insurers to
continually
improvethesecorrelatesandhencetheircontracttermsandprices,the
European experience (showing the lower operating costs of
monopoly providers)
suggeststhatthismaynotalwaysfollow.
Some additional complexities arise with infrequent hazards:
diversification among
manypolicyholders(contemporaneous)maynotsuffice,anddiversif
icationovertime
(intertemporal) is more difficult (box 5.1). Examining data from
the largest U.S.
catastrophic risk reinsurer for 1970 to 1998, Froot (2001) finds
that catastrophe
insurancepremiaare farhigher thanexpected losses(up toseven
timesgreater).
Themostlikelyreasonsarereinsurancemarketimperfections(suchas
government
intervention in insurance markets) and the market power exerted
by traditional
reinsurers.
Asnotedinseveralpartsofthisreport,governmentscandomuchtoimp
rovedata
qualityandaccessibility.Hurricanesaremorefrequentthanearthqua
kes,butconsider
what it
takestosetthehurricaneinsurancepremium:severalsetsofdetailedda
ta
areneeded includingthefrequency, the
likelypathsandseverityofhurricanes, the
value and type of construction of all structures in their path (so
124. accurate property
recordsareessential),andhowmuchdamageeachstructurewouldlike
lysufferat
various wind speeds (so local universities and engineering
associations must know
andtestthestrengthofmaterialsanddesignsofexistingbuildings).Cli
matescience
modelsestimatetheforces(suchaswindspeedandairpressure)anden
gineering
determines how buildings withstand them; allowing estimates of
loss exceedance
curves (insurers use this combination of cumulative probability
distribution function
withvaluesatrisk).
Even with good data, it is far from clear whether the frequency
and severity of
hurricaneshaschanged(chapter6discusseshowfrequencyandseveri
tymightbe
affectedinthefuturebecauseofclimatechange).InsurersintheUnited
Stateshad
taken note of the dangers to property after 1992’s Hurricane
Andrew, but were
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nevertheless caught unprepared for the string of storms and
major hurricanes
(Katrina, Rita, and Wilma) in 2004 and 2005. Insurers incurred
large payouts and
raisedthepremia;butonecannottellifthestringofhurricaneswerealo
wprobability
drawingfromanunchangeddistribution(makingthepremiaincrease
unjustified)—ora
shiftinthedistributionitself.
Box5.1Catastropheriskininsuranceandfinancialmarkets
Poolingrisksreducesaggregatevariance;solossesthatarelargeandu
npredictableforavictimbecomesmall
andpredictableintheaggregatepool.Riskpoolingcouldbecontempo
raneousorintertemporal,butthelatter
requirestheinsurertohaveenoughcapitaltomakethepayoutsandrepl
enishitovertimewithannualpremia.
Catastrophesareinfrequent,andinsuringagainstthemillustratesthei
ssueswithintertemporaldiversification.
Theriskthataneventcouldgeneratealargelossforacountry(1998Hur