Pakistan: Iran Oil Minister Zanganeh, “Given the current conditions, we do not have hope for exporting gas to Pakistan,” citing lack of finance. Another part of energy crisis solution lost, again to a mix of geopolitical sensitivity and lack of domestic political will. See attached Frontier Alpha graphic.

1. Pakistan – Emblematic Energy Crisis
(2% to 4% GDP Drag)
Causes
Solutions
Vested Interests
- Non Payment: consumers, industrialists, government
- Cash injection to resolve circular debt
- Domestic political-business elite
- Network theft (30%)
- Targeted subsidies (average tariff hikes)
- Sindh province claim on Thar coal
- Indiscriminate subsidies
- Change imported fuel mix to clean coal
- US on Iran gas via IP vs Turkmen via TAPI
- Generation mix biased to expensive imported oil
- Diversify gas imports
- India on use of Indus water
- Inter agency rivalry in government
- Construct new hydro generation
- Exploit Thar desert coal (lignite)
- Create central Ministry
- Governance (central Ministry, law & order)
- Higher tax collection (9% of GDP)
Generation Mix (2012)
Electricity is a Voter Priority
Most Important Issue to Resolve
Expectations are High
Will PML-N End Electricity Shortage
2%0.3%
Oil
29%
36%
Gas
Other
Quite Possible
Food
5%
Transport
Hydro
Slightly Possible
17%
Education
41%
Gas Shortage
Not Possible
Poverty
Coal
29%
Imported
Unemployment
37%
Inflation
Electricity Shortage
0%
Source: NEPRA
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Source: Gallup Pakistan
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Source: Gallup Pakistan
No Answer