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EU-Ukraine Association Agreement:
reforms and results
Veronika Movchan
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
The presentation is based on the materials developed within 3dcftas.eu project funded by the SIDA
For the conference “The European Union and Ukraine: How to enhance the cooperation and maintain the
reform process?”
Berlin, Representation of the European Commission in Germany, 7 June 2018
2
Survey of exporters and importers
Current impact of the Association
Agreement
Expected impact of the Association
Agreement
28.3
31.6
6.2
6.0
61.2
60.3
4.3
2.2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2016
2017
firm gained firm lost no impact hard to say
45.4
51.5
6.9
5.8
25.1
22.6
22.6
25.4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2016
2017
firm gained firm lost no impact hard to say
Source: Trade Facilitation Dialogue Action implemented by the IER and funded by the EU
3
The Association Agreement and the economic growth
The Association Agreement creates opportunities for the stronger economic
growth of Ukraine by stimulating investments and exports. It is done by:
• Placing the rule of law among fundamental principles of the Agreement
 better protection of property rights as investments prerequisite
• Anchoring the regulatory environment in Ukraine to the EU norms and practices
 higher predictability of Ukraine’s business climate
 easier access to the markets of the third countries
• Liberalizing the market access to the EU market
 more exports opportunities
4
Ukraine: some of launched reforms
Area of reforms Brief description of key undertakings
Judicial and anti-corruption New structure of judiciary system, increased independence of
judges; new anti-corruption institutions; higher transparency
Food and industrial products safety New legislation and institutions; increased recognition
State aid and competition policy New law on state aid; strengthened competition authority
Public procurements On-line transparent public procurement
Energy sector New laws on gas and energy markets; independent regulator
Customs Single window at customs
Environmental protection Law on environmental impact assessment; national emissions
reduction plans
Digital sector Laws on electronic commerce and electronic trust services
Intellectual property rights protection High Court for Intellectual Property Matters
5
Ukraine’s export in goods by destination
USD bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
EU-28 Russia ROW
% of total
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
EU-28 Russia ROW
• In 2017, Ukraine exports to the EU was USD 17.5 bn (highest since 2011) and 41% of total (absolute max since
independence)
• After steep reduction, exports to Russia stabilized at USD 4 bn and 9% of total. Still, Russia remained the largest
export destination among individual
countries
6
Exports to the EU by level of processing
European Union Rest of the World
• Importance of finished products in exports to the EU increased from 32% in 2013 to 43% in 2017,
while importance of raw materials exports reduced
• Key finished products exported to the EU are sunflower oil and electric machinery
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Raw materails
Semi-processed goods
Processed goods
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Raw materails
Semi-processed goods
Processed goods
7
Exports to the EU: variety
Number of products, 6-digit HS
2965
3114
2893
1738
2150
2015
2196
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
# products exported to world, exports >10K USD
# products exported to EU, exports >10K USD
% EU share of product variety exported to world
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
# products exported to EU / # products exported to world,
exports >10K USD
• Product diversify of exports to the EU has increased noticeably since the DCFTA launch
• Compared to 2013, in 2017 Ukraine exported 181 products more, while variety of its exports to the ROW
shrunk by 173 products
8
Challenges and risks
• External:
• Reduction in global prices on key commodities
• Growing protectionism of trade partners:
• EU introduced import duties on maize (maize is subject to TRQs under DCFTA)
• EU anti-dumping duty on steel products
• USA safeguard import duties on steel and aluminum
• Internal:
• Uncompleted reform agenda and slowdown of reforms
• Growing domestic protectionism and violation of commitments:
• Moratorium on wood logs exports
• “Buy Ukrainian” draft law
Thank you!!!
Contacts
@IER_Kyivwww.ier.com.ua
8/5-А Reytarska str., Kyiv 01030, Ukraine
tel: +38-044-278-6360
e-mail: institute@ier.kiev.ua
IER.Kyiv

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EU-Ukraine Association Agreement: reforms and results

  • 1. EU-Ukraine Association Agreement: reforms and results Veronika Movchan Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting The presentation is based on the materials developed within 3dcftas.eu project funded by the SIDA For the conference “The European Union and Ukraine: How to enhance the cooperation and maintain the reform process?” Berlin, Representation of the European Commission in Germany, 7 June 2018
  • 2. 2 Survey of exporters and importers Current impact of the Association Agreement Expected impact of the Association Agreement 28.3 31.6 6.2 6.0 61.2 60.3 4.3 2.2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 2017 firm gained firm lost no impact hard to say 45.4 51.5 6.9 5.8 25.1 22.6 22.6 25.4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 2017 firm gained firm lost no impact hard to say Source: Trade Facilitation Dialogue Action implemented by the IER and funded by the EU
  • 3. 3 The Association Agreement and the economic growth The Association Agreement creates opportunities for the stronger economic growth of Ukraine by stimulating investments and exports. It is done by: • Placing the rule of law among fundamental principles of the Agreement  better protection of property rights as investments prerequisite • Anchoring the regulatory environment in Ukraine to the EU norms and practices  higher predictability of Ukraine’s business climate  easier access to the markets of the third countries • Liberalizing the market access to the EU market  more exports opportunities
  • 4. 4 Ukraine: some of launched reforms Area of reforms Brief description of key undertakings Judicial and anti-corruption New structure of judiciary system, increased independence of judges; new anti-corruption institutions; higher transparency Food and industrial products safety New legislation and institutions; increased recognition State aid and competition policy New law on state aid; strengthened competition authority Public procurements On-line transparent public procurement Energy sector New laws on gas and energy markets; independent regulator Customs Single window at customs Environmental protection Law on environmental impact assessment; national emissions reduction plans Digital sector Laws on electronic commerce and electronic trust services Intellectual property rights protection High Court for Intellectual Property Matters
  • 5. 5 Ukraine’s export in goods by destination USD bn 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 EU-28 Russia ROW % of total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 EU-28 Russia ROW • In 2017, Ukraine exports to the EU was USD 17.5 bn (highest since 2011) and 41% of total (absolute max since independence) • After steep reduction, exports to Russia stabilized at USD 4 bn and 9% of total. Still, Russia remained the largest export destination among individual countries
  • 6. 6 Exports to the EU by level of processing European Union Rest of the World • Importance of finished products in exports to the EU increased from 32% in 2013 to 43% in 2017, while importance of raw materials exports reduced • Key finished products exported to the EU are sunflower oil and electric machinery 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Raw materails Semi-processed goods Processed goods 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Raw materails Semi-processed goods Processed goods
  • 7. 7 Exports to the EU: variety Number of products, 6-digit HS 2965 3114 2893 1738 2150 2015 2196 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 # products exported to world, exports >10K USD # products exported to EU, exports >10K USD % EU share of product variety exported to world 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 # products exported to EU / # products exported to world, exports >10K USD • Product diversify of exports to the EU has increased noticeably since the DCFTA launch • Compared to 2013, in 2017 Ukraine exported 181 products more, while variety of its exports to the ROW shrunk by 173 products
  • 8. 8 Challenges and risks • External: • Reduction in global prices on key commodities • Growing protectionism of trade partners: • EU introduced import duties on maize (maize is subject to TRQs under DCFTA) • EU anti-dumping duty on steel products • USA safeguard import duties on steel and aluminum • Internal: • Uncompleted reform agenda and slowdown of reforms • Growing domestic protectionism and violation of commitments: • Moratorium on wood logs exports • “Buy Ukrainian” draft law
  • 9. Thank you!!! Contacts @IER_Kyivwww.ier.com.ua 8/5-А Reytarska str., Kyiv 01030, Ukraine tel: +38-044-278-6360 e-mail: institute@ier.kiev.ua IER.Kyiv