French Election Guide Part 2: Candidate Strengths

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The Ultimate Guide to the 2017 French Elections – Part II
The first round of the French Presidential elections is due to be held in 25 days (on 23rd
April), with the likely second round two weeks later on 7th May. In many ways this is
proving to be a unique election campaign but the centre-left Emmanuel Macron still
comfortably leads National Front candidate Marine Le Pen in second round polls.
This in-depth four-part Election Series examines all core elements of the upcoming
presidential and legislative elections and takes a quantitative and qualitative approach. In
Part II, I tackle seven questions, looking at past presidential elections where appropriate:
Q1: Who are the presidential candidates?
Eleven candidates, spanning the breadth of the political spectrum, will officially contest the
first round in a bid to capture the 46 million or so votes up for grabs. However, Emmanuel
Macron and Marine Le Pen remain comfortably ahead in the polls on around 25%.
Q2: What are their relative strengths and weaknesses?
The recent televised debate between the top five candidates was high calibre, in my view,
and the front-runners have in recent months shown clear strengths…but also weaknesses.
Q3: What are the odds of a candidate winning an absolute majority in the first round?
No candidate has ever obtained more than 50% of the popular vote in the first round. This
time looks no different and a second round is a near certainty based on latest polls.
Q4: Does the number of sponsors have a bearing on first round results?
The relationship is tenuous but does suggest that Le Pen will fail to win the presidency.
Q5: Does the number of candidates have a bearing on first round results?
The large number of candidates points to the winner and runner-up of the first round
winning only just over half of the votes, broadly in line with recent opinion polls.
Q6: Does the first round result have a bearing on the outcome of the second round?
Precedent suggests that a small margin of victory in the first round makes the second
round outcome harder to predict. This year’s election could prove a break with the past.
Q7: Does it matter who came third or fourth in the first round?
It has on a few occasions but assuming that Fillon comes third and the left-wing candidates
fourth and fifth, polls point to a convincing Macron win versus le Pen in the second round.

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22 Questions & Answers
PART I (The Ultimate Guide to the 2017 French Elections, Part I, 17 March 2017)
1. Why are French presidential elections important?
2. How are French presidential elections run?
3. What about voter turnout?
4. What are the key themes for this presidential election?
5. Why are French legislative elections important?
PART II
6. Who are the presidential candidates?
7. What are their relative strengths and weaknesses?
8. What are the odds of a candidate winning an absolute majority in the first round?
9. Does the number of sponsors have a bearing on first round results?
10. Does the number of candidates have a bearing on first round results?
11. Does the first round result have a bearing on the outcome of the second round?
12. Does it matter who came third or fourth in the first round?
PART III
13. At this stage can we predict with any accuracy the eventual winner?
14. Are French presidential opinion polls useful in predicting the eventual winner?
15. What are French opinion polls currently predicting?
16. Do regional elections tell us anything about candidates’ chances?
17. Which two candidates are most likely to make it to the second round?
18. What are the odds of a left-wing candidate becoming President?
PART IV
19. Who will be president?
20. What are the possible implications for the future of the eurozone and EU?
21. How will financial markets react?
22. Who will be Prime Minister and why is this important?

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1. WHO ARE THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES?
The Conseil Constitutionnel (French Constitutional Council) officially confirmed on 18th
March that eleven
presidential candidates (from 11 different political parties or movements) had met the requirements to
contest the first round on 23rd
April, namely that they were sponsored by at least 500 elected officials from
at least 30 of the 101 French Departments1
(see Figure 1). A total of 61 candidates had put forward their
candidacies for the 2017 presidency and they secured, in aggregate, a total of 14,586 sponsors which was
broadly in line with the 2012 elections (about 15,000 sponsors).
Figure 1: It’s official – 11 candidates will contest the first round of the 2017 presidential elections
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel
Note: 290 invalid sponsorship forms were excluded from the finally tally
In the previous nine presidential elections ten candidates on average contested the first round (see “Does
the number of candidates have a bearing on first round results?” below).
The eleven candidates’ party, current role, background and previous presidential election bids are
summarised in Figure 2.
1 In order to qualify for the first round of voting, a candidate had to collect the signatures of at least five hundred
elected representatives among a total of more than 47,000; these could be mayors, general councillors, regional
councillors, deputies, senators and members of the European Parliament elected in France. A sponsor could only give
his official support to one candidate. No more than 10% of the sponsors (i.e. 50) could come from the same
department (sponsorship in excess of this threshold was discounted in the final tally). These rules were designed to
ensure that the candidate enjoys broad-based support rather than just local or regional support.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Official number of sponsors for presidential candidates (final tally excluding invalid votes)
% of total number of sponsors, right scale

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Figure 2: Presidential candidates – Their party, position and experience
Source: Ministère de l’Intérieur, Conseil Constitutionnel, European Parliament, Assemblée Nationale
Note: (1) Political movement rather than party per se
2. WHAT ARE THEIR RELATIVE STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
I gage the top five candidates’ perceived strengths and weaknesses in an attempt to predict who
will ultimately sway public opinion come the 23rd
April and 7th
May.
The 3-hour long televised debate on 20th
March between Le Pen, Macron, Fillon, Hamon and Mélenchon
was high calibre, in my view, and the front-runners have in recent months shown clear strengths…but also
weaknesses. Admittedly, a candidate’s (and his/her party’s) strengths and weakness are somewhat
subjective and his/her attributes can be both a strength and a weakness while a perceived strength can
quickly become a weakness and/vice versa.
Marine LE PEN
Strengths
Le Pen is an experienced politician who has been in politics for over 30 years and who came third in the
2012 presidential elections (with 18% support). She has toned down the right-wing rhetoric of her father
Name Party Current position Former positions Former presidential bids
Marine LE PEN National Front Party leader, MEP Regional councillor 3rd in 2012 (17.9%), 4th in
2007 (10.44%)
Emmanuel MACRON Independent / En-Marche!(1) -- Minister of Economy --
François FILLON Republican Party National Assembly deputy Prime Minister, Minister of
Labour, Senator
--
Jean-Luc MELENCHON Independent / Unsubmissive
France (1)
MEP Senator 4th in 2012 (11.1%)
Benoît HAMON Socialist Party National Assembly deputy Minister of National Education,
MEP
--
Nathalie ARTHAUD Workers' Struggle Municipal councillor Teacher (economics), party
spokesperson
9th in 2012 (0.56%)
François ASSELINEAU Popular Republican Union Inspector General for
finances
Official in ministries of Industry,
Tourism and Foreign Affairs
--
Jacques CHEMINADE Solidarity and Progress Head of LaRouche
movement in France
Civil Servant 10th in 2012 (0.25%), 9th
in 1995 (0.28%)
Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN France Arise Mayor, National Assembly
deputy
UMP (Republican Party) member 7th in 2012 (1.8%)
Jean LASSALLE Independent National Assembly deputy Vice President of General
Council of the Pyrenees-Atlantic
--
Philippe POUTOU New Anticapitalist Party Trade unionist -- 8th in 2012 (1.15%)
Candidates for first round of French presidential elections (Top five candidates according to latest opinion polls)

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and National Front founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, and made the party more acceptable to a mainstream
audience. The National Front performed well in the 2015 regional elections and is well represented at the
local level, particularly in Northern France’s old industrial heartland and in the South of France. Her tough
stance on immigration and national security has resonated given multiple terrorist attacks on French soil in
the past two years and she has arguably benefited from popular, Europe-wide support for nationalist and
populist policies. Her promise of holding a referendum on French EU membership has arguably divided
voters.
Weaknesses
Le Pen’s policies are still divisive and recent presidential elections in Austria and national elections in the
Netherlands suggest that while nationalist and/or populist parties in Europe are in the ascendancy, there
has been a tendency to over-estimate their reach (see Going Dutch and Fed’s next big data hurdle, 17
March 2017). The French business community is tacitly critical of her goal of taking France out of the EU
and eurozone. Le Pen’s economic agenda is arguably more limited than some of her rivals and she has lost
her mantle of “non-mainstream” politician to Macron. She lacks her father’s charisma and oratory skills. Her
close links with President Putin and her promise, if elected, to cancel EU sanctions on Russia may be
hurting her appeal as is her comparison to US President Trump. She is currently under investigation for
misappropriation of EU funds and publication of violent images.
Emmanuel MACRON
Strengths
As a young (39 year-old), independent, centre-left candidate Macron has promoted the idea that he is a
welcome break from traditional politics and politicians, particularly from the Socialist and Republican parties
which have largely dominated French politics for the past 30 years. He is vying to become the first centrist
president since Valéry Giscard d'Estaing in 1974, the first independent candidate to become France’s head
of state and the youngest ever President under the Fifth Republic (see Figure 3 and Question 1B in The
Ultimate Guide to the 2017 French Elections – Part I, 7 March 2017). He has found support amongst those
who are unwilling to vote for the more polarised candidates on the left and right. He arguably held his own
against far more experienced candidates in the recent televised debate.
Weaknesses
Macron has a lack of political experience with his two-year stint as Economy Minister in 2014-2016 under
Socialist President Hollande his only major political posting. At the same time, his former membership of
the unpopular Socialist Party is viewed as a liability. He does not enjoy the backing of a major party-
machine and has struggled to gain nation-wide support. His political program has been described as
somewhat lacking in substance. Moreover, his critics argue that his four-year stint as an investment banker
at Rothschild in 2008-2012 tarnish his credentials as a man of the people. Questions have been raised as
to how his net financial assets, which he declared on 16th
March (a pre-condition to being an official
presidential candidate), amount to only €200,000.

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Figure 3: Emmanuel Macron aiming to be youngest ever French President
Source: Ministère de l’Intérieur, Conseil Constitutionnel
François FILLON
Strengths
Fillon is an experienced politician who was prime minister in 2007-2012. He convincingly won the
Republican primaries on 27th
November, beating Alain Juppé by 66.5% to 33.5% in the second round. He
also enjoys by far the greatest support among political sponsors. Of the 14,296 politically-appointed
members who sponsored a presidential candidate, Fillon obtained the backing of 25.4%, almost as much
as Hamon (14.3%) and Macron (12.8%) combined. He is seen as the more acceptable face of right-wing
politics in France with his tough stance on immigration balanced by the desire to keep France within a
reformed Europe. During the recent televised debate he kept his cool and acted presidential when the other
candidates did not.
Weaknesses
Fillon was formally charged on 15th
March for the misappropriation of parliamentary funds in relation to
payments he made to his wife (as a National Assembly Deputy’s assistant) and to his children for work that
they allegedly did not undertake. Mrs Fillon was also formally charged on 28th
March and she is also being
investigated for falsification of documents relating to her alleged fictitious work. Fillon has lost the support of
Republican Party grandees who have urged him to pull out of the presidential race. He has also come
under intense criticism for allegedly accepting a number of payments and expensive gifts in exchange for
political favours including during his time as Prime Minister in 2007-2012 and these links may be formally
investigated. His pro-Russian stance has also divided popular opinion. From a policy perspective, his pro-
austerity stance – including increased working hours and pensionable-age – has arguably alienated those
in the centre and left of the political spectrum.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1965 1969 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2007 2012 2017
First round Winner of second round
Average age of presidential candidates (years)
Average (1965-
2017): 55
Average (1965-2012): 62

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Jean-Luc MELENCHON
Strengths
An experienced politician who came fourth in the first round of the 2012 presidential elections with 11% of
the popular vote. He was seen as having performed strongly in the 20th
March televised debate and has
since overtaken Hamon in the polls to fourth place on around 13-14%. His left-wing economic agenda and
pro- immigration clearly has some appeal.
Weaknesses
Mélenchon is very much on the left of the political spectrum which has seemingly alienated even centrist
voters. His generous promises on the social and economic front imply significant tax rises which may prove
unpopular given the already reasonably high tax take in France. His refusal to curb immigration or take a
hard-line approach to national security is perceived as being as increasingly at odds with recent events,
including numerous terrorist attacks on French and European soil.
Benoît HAMON
Strengths
Hamon enjoys the backing, even if partial, of the Socialist Party – one of the two largest parties in France –
and has also received the endorsement of the Green Party led by Yannick Jadot. His promise to extend
and broaden generous state-benefits and introduce a €750/month universal income for all French (adult)
citizens has unsurprisingly found some support.
Weaknesses
The backing of the Socialist Party is proving a double-edged sword given the unpopularity of Socialist
President François Hollande and the general backlash against socialist policies in Europe (including in the
UK and Netherlands). He was seen to have not performed strongly in the recent televised debate and has
recently slipped to fifth in opinion polls behind Mélenchon, with only 10-11% support.
3. WHAT ARE ODDS OF CANDIDATE WINNING ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN FIRST ROUND?
The odds of any of the presidential candidates winning more than 50% of the votes in the first
round and being elected President without going to a second round are extremely low.
Since the start of the Fifth Republic on 4th
October 1958, there have been ten presidential elections, of
which nine have been conducted on the basis of a popular vote (in the 1958 elections an Electoral College
voted for the President). All nine elections have gone to a second round (see Figure 4). No candidate has
ever obtained more than 44.65% in the first round (Charles de Gaulle in 1965) with the winner of the first
round on average gaining a third of the popular vote.

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Figure 4: No candidate has ever obtained more than 44.65% of the vote in the first round
This is partly due to the large number of candidates with sizeable bases of support which have historically
entered the first round and split the vote. This is in contrast to the US where typically only the Republican
and Democrat candidates have stood any chance of becoming President, with even the third-placed
candidate winning only a modest share of the vote.2
There is nothing to suggest that this year’s French presidential elections will be any different. The
independent centre-left Emmanuel Macron and National Front leader Marine Le Pen have led opinion polls
for the first round for months but are still both stuck on around 25% (see Figure 5) and neither has pushed
beyond 28%. Popular support for third-placed Republican candidate François Fillon has recovered slightly
in recent days but has yet to break 20%. None of these candidates looks even remotely close to potentially
obtaining 50% or more of the votes in the first round. If anything, the winner of the first round may win a
smaller-than-average share of the vote (see Question 5 below).
Beyond the top five presidential candidates, only Nicolas Dupont-Aignan – the candidate of the euro-
sceptic France Arise Party – is likely to get more than 1-2% of the popular vote in the first round based on
latest polls. Dupont-Aignan, who won 1.8% of the votes in the first round of the 2012 presidential elections,
is currently polling around 3-4%.
2 In the 1992 US Presidential elections independent candidate Ross Perot won 18.9% of the popular vote (but no
electoral college votes), making him the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of the popular vote
since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election.
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1965 1969 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2007 2012
Winner Second place Third place
Percentage of popular vote won in first round of presidential elections - 1965 to 2012
Average:
33.1%
Average:
24.9%
Average:
17.5%

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Figure 5: Le Pen and Macron are vying for first place in the first round, according to polls
Source: Les Echos, L’Internaute
4. DOES THE NUMBER OF SPONSORS HAVE A BEARING ON FIRST ROUND RESULTS?
The electoral pre-requisite of obtaining at least 500 sponsors has attracted much criticism across the
political spectrum (see Fed 25 and 500 Godfathers, 10 March 2017). Candidates, in particular those of
smaller political parties but also Le Pen, argue that the number of sponsors does not reflect the level of
popular support.
Figure 6 would tend to support this view. The correlation between the number of sponsors and votes won in
the first round of the 2007 and 2012 presidential elections is not that strong, particularly for candidates with
few sponsors. For example Marine Le Pen obtained only 550 or so sponsors in each of these two elections
but won, respectively, 10.4% and 17.9% of the votes in the 2007 and 2012 elections.
5
10
15
20
25
30
16-Mar 18-Mar 20-Mar 22-Mar 24-Mar 26-Mar 28-Mar
Le Pen
Macron
Fillon
Mélenchon
Hamon
Voting intentions for first round of presidential elections, % (average of opinion polls)

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Figure 6: Relationship between number of sponsors and election results revealsinteresting pattern
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel
Note: While the Conseil Constitutionnel published the official number of sponsors for each candidate in the 2007
presidential elections, it did not in the 2012 elections. Candidates had the option of not revealing the total number of
sponsors they had, as Nicolas Sarkozy and François Bayrou chose to do. Bold indicates winner of the second round.
The relationship also looks tenuous if we compare the number of sponsors with opinion polls for the first
round of the 2017 presidential elections (see Figure 7).
Figure 7: No clear relationship between number of sponsors and latest opinion polls for first round
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel, Les Echos, Internaute
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Number of sponsors (before substracting sponsors which breached the 50-sponsor-per-department limit)
Percentageofvotesinfirstroundof
presidentialelections
Sponsors and first round results (2012 and 2017 presidential elections)
Ségolene
Royal, 2007
Nicolas
Sarkozy, 2007
François
Hollande, 2012
François
Bayrou, 2007
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon, 2012
Marine Le Pen,
2012
Marine Le Pen,
2007
Marie-George
Buffet, 2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Number of sponsors (before substracting sponsors which breach the 50-sponsor-per-depatment limit)
Popularsupportinfirstround,%(latestopinionpolls)
Le Pen Macron
Fillon
Mélenchon
Hamon
Dupont-Aignan
Arthaud
Cheminade Asselineau
2017 presidential elections - Number of sponsors and first round opinion polls
Lassalle
Poutou

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However, the correlation is somewhat stronger as the number of sponsors increases. In particular, Nicolas
Sarkozy and François Hollande, who respectively won the 2007 and 2012 presidential elections, had
respectively 3,885 sponsors3
and about 4,750 sponsors4
. If this statistical relationship holds this year, Le
Pen’s chances of becoming president are slim. Conversely, the odds of Macron making it to the second
round and winning the presidency would appear reasonably strong on this basis.
Moreover, this relationship between sponsors and election results would suggest that Fillon and Hamon
may perform a little better in the first round than currently predicted by opinion polls. However, the odds of
either Hamon or Mélenchon making it to the second round remain very slim. I would venture that one of
them only stands a chance of making it to the second round if the other drops out of the presidential race
and gives his support to the other left-wing candidate – a very unlikely scenario at this late stage of the
race, in my view.
5. DOES NUMBER OF CANDIDATES HAVE A BEARING ON FIRST ROUND RESULTS?
Precedent suggests that the large number of presidential candidates this year (11) increases the
probability of no candidate winning more than 50% and the top two candidates winning only a
modest share of the vote in the first round of voting.
The share of votes gained by the winner of the first round which averaged around 44.1% in the 1965, 1969
and 1974 elections has since dropped sharply, averaging only 27.6%. Similarly, the share of the popular
vote won by the second-placed candidate, which averaged 29.2% in 1965-1974, has since fallen to about
22.8%. As a result the aggregate share of the vote gained by the winner and runner-up of the first round
has fallen sharply from an average of 73.3% to just above 50%. This is partly due to the larger number of
presidential candidates in recent elections (see Figure 8).
3 Before subtracting sponsors which breached the 50-sponsor-per-department limit.
4 The Constitutional Court did not publish official sponsorship figures in 2012 but the Socialist Party claimed that
Hollande had the confirmed support of 4,500-5,000 sponsors.

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Figure 8: Ten candidates have on average contested first round, with top two winning 58% of the vote
Indeed, Figure 9 shows an inverse correlation between the number of candidates and the share of the
votes gained by the winner, with one notable outlier – the 1974 elections where the top two candidates won
76% of the vote despite 12 candidates entering the first round. Similarly, Figure 10 shows an inverse
correlation between the number of candidates and the aggregate share of votes gained by the winner and
runner-up.
Figure 9: Correlation between number of
candidates and first round winner’s vote
Figure 10: Correlation between number of
candidates and top two candidates’ votes
Source: Ministère de l’Intérieur, Conseil Constitutionnel Source: Ministère de l’Intérieur,Conseil Constitutionnel
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5 7 9 11 13 15 17
Number of candidates
%ofvotegainedbywinner
1974 , won by Valéry
Giscard d'Estaing
First round of presidential elections
1965 to 2012
30
40
50
60
70
80
5 7 9 11 13 15 17
%ofvotewonbythetoptwocandidates
1974 , won by Valéry
Giscard d'Estaing
1965 to 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
900
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1965 1969 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2007 2012 2017
Number of candidates, left scale
Share of vote won by top two candidates (%), inverted scale
First round of presidential elections - 1965 to 2017
Average: 10
Average:
58%

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Assuming this relationship holds for this year’s elections and if we exclude the 1974 elections from the
calculations:
- The winner of the first round of this year’s election should gain about 29% of the vote (see Figure 11).
- The top two candidates should win about 52% (see Figure 12), which would imply the runner-up
winning about 23%.
This broadly tallies with current opinion polls which, in aggregate, have Le Pen and Macron winning about
50% of the first round vote. Of course this is a merely a statistical estimation based on a small sample and
a historical relationship which could break down for a number of reasons. Nevertheless, it does reinforce
the consensus view, which I share, that this year’s elections will very likely to go to a second round.
Figure 11: Correlation more obvious if 1974
presidential election is excluded
Figure 12: Large number of candidate tends to
reduce share of votes won by top two candidates
Source: Ministère de l’Intérieur, Conseil Constitutionnel Source: Ministère de l’Intérieur,Conseil Constitutionnel
6. DOES FIRST ROUND RESULT HAVE A BEARING ON OUTCOME OF SECOND ROUND?
Precedent suggests the winner of the first round is more likely to win the second round, particularly
if he/she won the first round by a significant margin. When the margin of victory in the first round
has been small, the outcome in the second round has been harder to predict.5
This year’s election
could prove to be a significant break with the past if Macron comes a close second in the first
round but wins the second round by a significant margin.
5 The first and second rounds are independent votes with no votes from the first round carried through to the second
round.
y = -2.332x + 54.845
R² = 0.6405
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5 7 9 11 13 15 17
%ofvotegainedbywinner
1965 to 2012, excluding 1974
y = -3.2403x + 87.761
R² = 0.6543
30
40
50
60
70
80
5 7 9 11 13 15 17
%ofvotewonbythetoptwocandidates
1965 to 2012, excluding 1974

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At first glance, there is no obvious correlation between the share of the votes gained by the winner of the
first round and his/her share of the vote in the second round (see Figure 13). But this is partly due to one
outlier – the 2002 elections. Incumbent President Jacques Chirac (Republican) won the first round with only
19.9% of the vote and Front National Leader Jean-Marie Le Pen was a very close second (16.9%). The
very low voter turnout (71.6%) and meek support for President Chirac, a mainstream candidate, partly
reflected popular discontent with his presidency while Le Pen’s strong showing echoed a popular desire for
more right-wing policies – in effect a protest-vote against the status quo.
Figure 13: First round result of presidential elections appears not to have a bearing on second round result
However, in the second round Jacques Chirac won a massive 82.2% of the vote (vs 17.8% for Le Pen) on
a far higher voter turnout of 79.7% – the largest ever margin of victory in a presidential election under the
Fifth Republic. The share of support for Le Pen was broadly unchanged from the first round – the first time
ever for a presidential candidate – as a result of two factors. First, the majority of those who voted for
neither Chirac nor Le Pen in the first round voted for Chirac in the second. Also, a share of those who voted
Le Pen in a first round “protest vote” switched their support to Chirac in the second round. In essence, the
French electorate were simply not willing to elect as President a controversial extreme-right candidate,
regardless of their misgivings about Chirac.
If these 2002 elections are omitted, there is a positive correlation between the share of the votes gained by
the winner of the first round and his/her share of the vote in the second round (see Figure 14) – i.e. the
larger his/her share in the first round, the higher the probability of him/her winning the second round (and
thus becoming president).
y = -0.0199x + 55.621
R² = 0.0002
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
0 5 10 15 20 25
Gap between winner and runer-up of 1st round (share of vote, percentage points)
%ofvoteswonin2ndroundbywinnerof1stround
2002
1965
1988
1969
2007
1981
1995
2012
1974
Presidential elections: 1965-2012

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Figure 14: But correlation more obvious if 2002 presidential elections excluded
However, in three of the past nine elections, the runner-up in the first round of the elections won the second
round to become President – Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (Centrist) in 1974, François Mitterrand (Socialist) in
1981 and Jacques Chirac (Republican) in 1995 (the red diamonds in Figure 14).
 In both 1981 and 1995 the gap in the share of votes won between the winner and runner-up in the
first round was particularly small (2.5 percentage points) and the margins of victory in the second
round were narrow (51.8% vs 48.2% in 1981 and 52.6% vs 47.4% in 1995).
 In 1974 François Mitterrand won the first round convincingly (43.3% of the votes), with Valéry
Giscard d'Estaing a distant second with only 32.6%. Yet Valéry Giscard d'Estaing won the second
round to become president, albeit with the smallest ever share of the vote recorded (50.8%).
If Macron and Le Pen share the top two spots in the first round of this year’s election, as currently predicted
by opinion polls, the above statistical analysis would point to a closely thought second round. However,
opinion polls have consistently showed Macron winning by a margin of about 22 percentage points in a
second-round run-off against Le Pen (see Figure 15). Should this outcome indeed materialise – a close-
thought first round followed by a comfortable (but not crushing) victory by Macron in the second round, it
would be somewhat unique in French presidential election history.
y = 0.424x + 48.374
R² = 0.6419
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
0 5 10 15 20 25
Gap between winner and runer-up of 1st round (share of vote, percentage points)
%ofvoteswonin2ndroundbywinnerof1stround
Presidential elections: 1965-2012, excluding 2002
1981
1995
1974
2012
2007
1965
1988
1969

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Figure 15: Macron maintains a sizeable lead against le Pen in polls for the second round
Source: Les Echos, Internaute
7. DOES IT MATTER WHO CAME THIRD OR FOURTH IN THE FIRST ROUND?
Focus tends to gravitate towards the top two candidates but the third or even fourth-placed
candidates have, on occasion, had an important bearing on the outcome of the second round. This
is unlikely to be the case in this year’s elections, in my view.
In elections since 1969, the top three candidates in the first round have represented the broad spectrum of
the main political parties, namely the Communist, Socialist, Centrist, Republican and National Front parties
(see Figure 16). The 1995 elections were somewhat unique as the second and third placed candidates in
the first round – incumbent President Jacques Chirac (20.8% of the vote) and incumbent Prime Minister
Edouard Balladur (18.6%) – shared a not too dissimilar political platform. Chirac was a Republican and
while Edouard Balladur ran as an independent he had strong support from the Republican Party (and
centrist party).
Chirac increased his modest share of the popular vote in the first round to 52.6% in the second round to
become President, thanks in large part to Balladur’s support. The take-away, if any, was that a second-
round candidate who can count on the support (and voters) of a candidate who performed strongly in the
first round may have a better chance of becoming president.
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
16-Mar 18-Mar 20-Mar 22-Mar 24-Mar 26-Mar 28-Mar
Macron Le Pen
Voting intentions for second round of presidential elections, % (average of opinion polls)

17
Figure 16: A strong third-placed candidate in first round can have a bearing on the second round of voting
Note: The Republican Party was formerly known as the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP),Rally for the Republic
(RPR), Union of Democrats for the Republic (UDR) and Union for the New Republic
This year’s election is pitting candidates with arguably very different political platforms. Bar Hamon and
Mélenchon who share similar left-wing agendas, the candidates have little in common (see Figure 17).
While Le Pen and Fillon are to the right of the spectrum in terms of their views on immigration and national
security, Le Pen wants to take France out of the EU and eurozone but Fillon does not. Macron and Le
Pen’s economic policies share some common traits – including supporting the lower paid – but Macron is
pro-EU and has a far more moderate take on immigration. Fillon and in particular Macron want France to
remain in a reformed EU but Fillon’s economic policies are much further to the right than Macron’s (see
Question 4, Key themes in this year’s elections, The Ultimate Guide to the 2017 French Elections – Part I, 7
March 2017).
However, opinion polls suggest that Macron will, in the second round, win a far larger share of the votes
won in aggregate by Fillon, Hamon, Mélenchon and the other six candidates in the first round than Le Pen
will (see Figure 15). Opinion polls reveal that first round support for third-placed Fillon and for Dupont-
Aignan and Asselineau, both euro sceptic right-wing candidates, is somewhat more likely to switch to Le
Pen in the second round. Conversely, support for the left-wing candidates (Mélenchon, Hamon, Arthaud) in
the first round is far more likely to switch to Macron (than to Le Pen) in the second round.
First round of presidential elections - political party of candidates
1st place 2nd place 3rd place
1969 Republican Centrist French Communist Party
1974 Socialist Centrist Republican
1981 Centrist Socialist Republican
1988 Socialist Republican Centrist
1995 Socialist (Jospin) Republican (Chirac) Independent, Republican/Centrist support (Balladur)
2002 Republican National Front Socialist Party
2007 Republican Socialist Centrist
2012 Socialist Republican National Front

18
Figure 17: The French political spectrum – From far left to far right and views on Europe (main candidates)
Source: Assemblée Nationale, European Parliament, Ministère de l’Intérieur, national press
Candidate Jean-Luc
Mélenchon
Benoît Hamon Emmanuel
Macron
François Fillon Marine Le Pen
Party /
Movement
Independent / La
France insoumise
Socialist Independent / En
Marche !
Republican National Front
Party President Former Education
Minister
Former Economy
Minister
Former Prime Minister Party President
Position on
European
Union
Critical of EU for
privileging elites and
being secretive. Wants
fiscal & social union
and said either EU
reforms or France
needs to leave
Former Member of
European Parliament
(MEP). Wants
France to remain
within reformed EU
Critical of EU but
wants France to
remain within
reformed EU, with
more EU sovereignty
and integration of EU
institutions and
policies (inc security,
energy sustainability
and digital market)
Very critical of EU,
saying "it is at best
inefficient, useless, out
fashioned and at worst is
an obstacle to our
development and our
freedom.” Wants France
to remain within vastly
reformed EU, with smaller
role for European
Commission and greater
military spending
Wants France to exit EU,
has promised to hold
referendum on France’s
EU membership if elected
President

19
LEXICON
Assemblée Nationale: National Assembly, the Lower House of French Parliament
Cohabition: A situation whereby the President and Prime Minister hail from two different political parties
Conseil Constitutionnel: A jurisdiction created in 1958 whose main task is to ensure that French laws are
compatible with the Constitution. It is composed of nine members appointed by the President for a term of
nine years. The current president is Laurent Fabius, a former Prime Minister and Minister of the Economy.
Debout La France: The party of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (translates to France Arise)
Europe Ecologie Les Verts: Green Party
En Marche!: The political movement led by Emmanuel Macron (translates to On the March! or Forward!)
Front National: National Front Party led by Marine Le Pen
La France Insoumise: The political movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon (translates to Unsubmissive
France)
L’Élysée: The official residence of the President of France since 1848
Lutte Ouvrière:The party of Nathalie Arthaud (translates to Workers’ Struggle)
Ministère de l’Intérieur: French Ministry of the Interior
Nouveau Parti anticapitalist: The party of Philippe Poutou (translates to New Anticapitalist Party)
Parti Communiste Français: French Communist Party
Parti Radical de Gauche: Centre-left party with close affiliation to Socialist Party (translates to Radical
Party of the Left)
Quinquennat:The five-year term served by each President of France
Sénat: Senate, the Upper House of French Parliament
Solidarité et Progrès: The party of Jacques Cheminade (translates to Solidarity and Progress)
Union des Démocrates et Indépendants: Centre-right party (translates to Union of Democrats and
Independents
Union Populaire Républicaine: The Party of François Asselineau (translates to Popular Republican
Union)

20
PRIOR RESEARCH ON FRENCH ELECTIONS AND EUROPEAN NATIONALISM
Going Dutch and Fed’s next big data hurdle (17 March 2017)
Fed 25 and 500 Godfathers (10 March 2017)
The Ultimate Guide to the 2017 French Elections – Part I (7 March 2017)
French elections in focus but US data likely to draw attention (24 February 2017)
Black Swans and white doves (8 December 2016)
EM currencies, Fed, French elections and UK reflation-lite (25 November 2016)
Nationalism, French presidential elections and the euro (18 November 2016)

French Election Guide Part 2: Candidate Strengths

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