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Whales, True Fans and the Ethics of
           Free-to-Play
             Nicholas Lovell
              GAMESbrief

            Develop Liverpool
           November 24th 2011
Nicholas Lovell, GAMESbrief

            • Author, How to Publish a Game
            • Director, GAMESbrief
            • Clients include Atari, Channel
              4, Channelflip, Firefly, IPC, nDream
              s, Rebellion and Square Enix
            • @nicholaslovell / @gamesbrief
Subscribe to the blog
Show offer: Get 80% off

             • Go to www.gamesbrief.com/store
             • Enter code DEVELOP
             • Get How to Publish a GAME for
              80% off:
              • Digital:    £99    £19.80
              • Physical:   £149   £29.90
              • Both:       £149   £29.90
ASK THE AUDIENCE
Q1: Are free-to-play games evil?
Q1: Are free-to-play games evil?
                 Interactive options:


    Yes

           14%




    No

                                        86%
Q2: Is Zynga evil?
Q2: Is Zynga evil?
           Interactive options:


    Yes

                                  46%




    No

                                        54%
Q3: Is Tiny Tower evil?
Q3: Is Tiny Tower evil?
                 Interactive options:


    Yes

           10%



    No

                           30%



    What’s Tiny Tower?

                                        60%
Q4: Is the National Lottery evil?
Q4: Is the National Lottery evil?
           Interactive options:


    Yes

                     35%




    No

                                    65%
FREE – IT WORKS
Free has been hugely successful
               • Zynga:
                 • filed its S-1
                 • $600m + in revenues
                 • Valuation expected >$10bn
               • Tiny Tower:
                  • 2 men, four months
                  • Currently #12 in the top grossing chart
                  • Conservative estimate: $3m revenue
                    in first 12 months
                  • (PS: # 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 are free too)
               • Bigpoint
                 • €200 million in revenue
                 • €650 million valuation
Free is a marketing technique
• Free means you have a lower barrier to entry
• Free means more people try your game
• Free gives you players; players are potential customers
• It’s all about the conversion from free users to revenue
 generating users

• If you are not free, you are competing with free
   • Advertising-funded
   • Pirated
   • Free from someone else
WHY DOES FREE
WORK?
The price/demand curve

                                    • In an era of physical
PRICE
                                      distribution, you need to set a
                                      single price
                                    • For games, around $40
        “It’s great
        value, I’d have
        paid much more”




                          “That’s too
                          expensive for me”

                                                         Demand
Now we let users set the price

              • Hypothesis: Allow users to choose how
PRICE
               much they spend on your product, and
               your revenues will go up

                     DDO revenues up 500%
                     LOTRO and Everquest II showed a
                      similar story
               $3
               $5 $5
                 $1 $5 $3
                                            $10 MMO
                 $3   $3 $3
                $1 $5                     subscription

                                          Demand
WRONG!
Allowing users to choose how little to pay
is not the secret
                       • We all knew that 95% of users played for
PRICE                    free
                       • We now know that 80-90% of revenues
                         come from 0.5% of users

                               Spending $50 - $10,000 or more




                                                       Demand
        Paying: 5%                      Free: 95%
          80-90% of revenue from 0.5% of users
Making it pay
                • The 10th Drone from
                    DarkOrbit
                •   Sells for €1,000
                •   2,000 sold
                •   That’s €2 million in
                    revenue
                •   In 4 days!
The Nine Inch Nails Example

        Ghosts I – IV Ultra Deluxe Edition: $300
PRICE

                      Ghosts I – IV Deluxe Edition: $75


                                    Ghosts I – IV physical: $10


                                              Ghosts I – IV digital: $5


                                                             Ghosts I: $0
                                                                  Demand
The rule of 0-1-100
• Make it enjoyable for people to play for free for ever
• Make it easy for people to spend $1
• Make it possible for people to spend $100 per month
An iOS example: Pocket Frogs
An iOS example: Pocket Frogs
ARE FREE / FREEMIUM
/ F2P GAMES EVIL?
NO
F2P = evil (or not)
• The business model is designed to take money from you
  • So is the coin-op, or the MMO, or the DLC
  • Games are a business – we should always remember that
• Some people spend lots of money on it
  • You get lots of content for free
  • Instead of paying for access, you pay for the experience that you
    VALUE
• They’re not real games
  • Grow up.
  • Oh, and the games will grow up too
• They don’t have enough skill / fairness / challenge
  • Well don’t play them then
  • Just because you don’t like them, doesn’t mean they are evil
Some valid concerns
• How much money is it ethical to take from a single
  player, in a single month?
• Are microtransactions appropriate for children?
• Are there certain games that aren’t suited to free-to-play
  • I say no
  • There may be some players who aren’t suited to microtransactions
• Free-to-play games that are just operant conditioning
 chambers (“Skinner boxes”) are likely to stop working
Beware marshmallow eaters
Whales versus true fans
• True fans spend money because of what you do
• Whales spend money because of who they are


• This is not a perfect distinction


• Make high-value content and consumables THAT YOU
 BELIEVE IN

• Hold your head up high
Avoid buyer’s remorse
Conclusion
• Free-to-play doesn’t have to be exploitative
• Sell things that players value – these don’t have to be
  expensive to make
• Be generous
• Seek out true fans, not whales
• Make games you can be proud of
Thank you
 nicholas@gamesbrief.com

      Follow my blog
    www.gamesbrief.com

     Buy my books
DEVELOP (until Friday 11 pm)

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Ethics of free to play games

  • 1. Whales, True Fans and the Ethics of Free-to-Play Nicholas Lovell GAMESbrief Develop Liverpool November 24th 2011
  • 2. Nicholas Lovell, GAMESbrief • Author, How to Publish a Game • Director, GAMESbrief • Clients include Atari, Channel 4, Channelflip, Firefly, IPC, nDream s, Rebellion and Square Enix • @nicholaslovell / @gamesbrief
  • 4. Show offer: Get 80% off • Go to www.gamesbrief.com/store • Enter code DEVELOP • Get How to Publish a GAME for 80% off: • Digital: £99 £19.80 • Physical: £149 £29.90 • Both: £149 £29.90
  • 6. Q1: Are free-to-play games evil?
  • 7. Q1: Are free-to-play games evil? Interactive options:  Yes 14%  No 86%
  • 8. Q2: Is Zynga evil?
  • 9. Q2: Is Zynga evil? Interactive options:  Yes 46%  No 54%
  • 10. Q3: Is Tiny Tower evil?
  • 11. Q3: Is Tiny Tower evil? Interactive options:  Yes 10%  No 30%  What’s Tiny Tower? 60%
  • 12. Q4: Is the National Lottery evil?
  • 13. Q4: Is the National Lottery evil? Interactive options:  Yes 35%  No 65%
  • 14. FREE – IT WORKS
  • 15. Free has been hugely successful • Zynga: • filed its S-1 • $600m + in revenues • Valuation expected >$10bn • Tiny Tower: • 2 men, four months • Currently #12 in the top grossing chart • Conservative estimate: $3m revenue in first 12 months • (PS: # 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 are free too) • Bigpoint • €200 million in revenue • €650 million valuation
  • 16. Free is a marketing technique • Free means you have a lower barrier to entry • Free means more people try your game • Free gives you players; players are potential customers • It’s all about the conversion from free users to revenue generating users • If you are not free, you are competing with free • Advertising-funded • Pirated • Free from someone else
  • 18. The price/demand curve • In an era of physical PRICE distribution, you need to set a single price • For games, around $40 “It’s great value, I’d have paid much more” “That’s too expensive for me” Demand
  • 19. Now we let users set the price • Hypothesis: Allow users to choose how PRICE much they spend on your product, and your revenues will go up  DDO revenues up 500%  LOTRO and Everquest II showed a similar story $3 $5 $5 $1 $5 $3 $10 MMO $3 $3 $3 $1 $5 subscription Demand
  • 21. Allowing users to choose how little to pay is not the secret • We all knew that 95% of users played for PRICE free • We now know that 80-90% of revenues come from 0.5% of users  Spending $50 - $10,000 or more Demand Paying: 5% Free: 95% 80-90% of revenue from 0.5% of users
  • 22. Making it pay • The 10th Drone from DarkOrbit • Sells for €1,000 • 2,000 sold • That’s €2 million in revenue • In 4 days!
  • 23. The Nine Inch Nails Example Ghosts I – IV Ultra Deluxe Edition: $300 PRICE Ghosts I – IV Deluxe Edition: $75 Ghosts I – IV physical: $10 Ghosts I – IV digital: $5 Ghosts I: $0 Demand
  • 24. The rule of 0-1-100 • Make it enjoyable for people to play for free for ever • Make it easy for people to spend $1 • Make it possible for people to spend $100 per month
  • 25. An iOS example: Pocket Frogs
  • 26. An iOS example: Pocket Frogs
  • 27. ARE FREE / FREEMIUM / F2P GAMES EVIL?
  • 28. NO
  • 29. F2P = evil (or not) • The business model is designed to take money from you • So is the coin-op, or the MMO, or the DLC • Games are a business – we should always remember that • Some people spend lots of money on it • You get lots of content for free • Instead of paying for access, you pay for the experience that you VALUE • They’re not real games • Grow up. • Oh, and the games will grow up too • They don’t have enough skill / fairness / challenge • Well don’t play them then • Just because you don’t like them, doesn’t mean they are evil
  • 30. Some valid concerns • How much money is it ethical to take from a single player, in a single month? • Are microtransactions appropriate for children? • Are there certain games that aren’t suited to free-to-play • I say no • There may be some players who aren’t suited to microtransactions • Free-to-play games that are just operant conditioning chambers (“Skinner boxes”) are likely to stop working
  • 32. Whales versus true fans • True fans spend money because of what you do • Whales spend money because of who they are • This is not a perfect distinction • Make high-value content and consumables THAT YOU BELIEVE IN • Hold your head up high
  • 34. Conclusion • Free-to-play doesn’t have to be exploitative • Sell things that players value – these don’t have to be expensive to make • Be generous • Seek out true fans, not whales • Make games you can be proud of
  • 35. Thank you nicholas@gamesbrief.com Follow my blog www.gamesbrief.com Buy my books DEVELOP (until Friday 11 pm)