This document provides an equity and debt market strategy update for mid-July to August 2018. On the equity side, it notes the divergence between large cap and mid cap index performance, and recommends a neutral stance on equities with a 50-50 allocation to large cap and multi cap mutual funds. It also recommends balanced funds for lower risk investors. On the debt side, it discusses the recent RBI rate hike, inflation trends, bond yields, and liquidity levels. Key risks mentioned include global monetary tightening, rising inflation, crude prices, and fiscal deficits.

1. Equity & Debt Strategy
Mid July – Aug’ 2018

2. Equity Market Update
&
Equity MF Strategy

3. Confidential | 3
Wide divergence in Large Cap and Mid Cap index performance
continue. Reliance and TCS lift Nifty50
17,700
18,200
18,700
19,200
19,700
20,200
20,700
21,200
10,300
10,400
10,500
10,600
10,700
10,800
10,900
30/05 05/06 11/06 17/06 23/06 29/06 05/07
NIFTY Index Nsemcap index
RBI hiked
policy rate
by 25 bps
US imposed further
tariffs on Chinese
goods & China
retaliated
Profit booking
ahead of RBI
Policy meet
Easing crude
prices,
appreciation of
USDINR
13,117
-6,130
-9,276
-4,221
-2,574 -2,750
1,372
7,4779,276
11,167
13,085
6,486
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18
FII DII excl MF MF
Crude and US-china kept market range bound with downward
pressure
FII selling and MF buying continues
Balanced Fund inflows have decreased substantially
Source: Bloomberg, KIE, AMFI
As of 10th July, 2018
cr
Net Flows to Equity Mutual Funds fell this month to 10k cr
cr
11,047
13,446 13,083
10,623
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18
Net investment in Cash market
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18
Pure Equity Inflow Balanced Inflow
Pure Equity Redemption Balanced Redemption
Note: April excludes Arbitrage Funds
cr

4. Confidential | 4
Emerging Markets under pressure as Monetary tightening is in motion,
India protected till now due to strong Domestic flows
Since 31st Jan, In Dollar terms Emerging markets have corrected by
14%, Nifty 50 has still fared better
Rising Crude prices and Dollar strength is impacting India outlook for
FIIs
QE Unwind program is gaining pace, Fed’s Balance sheet leaner by
$178 bn in last 1 Year
As of 10th July 2018
Source: Bloomberg
40
50
60
70
80
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Oct
16
Nov
16
Jan
17
Feb
17
Apr
17
May
17
Jul
17
Aug
17
Sep
17
Nov
17
Jan
18
Feb
18
Apr
18
May
18
Jul
18
Dollar Index LHS Crude $/BBL
Most EMs especially India and Russia witnessed heavy selling from FII
in Equity market
4,150,000
4,200,000
4,250,000
4,300,000
4,350,000
4,400,000
4,450,000
4,500,000
4,550,000
Aug14
Oct14
Dec14
Feb15
Apr15
Jun15
Aug15
Oct15
Dec15
Feb16
Apr16
Jun16
Aug16
Oct16
Dec16
Feb17
Apr17
Jun17
Aug17
Oct17
Dec17
Feb18
Apr18
Jun18
-8.7%
-17.4%
-14.3%
-23.2%
-14.4%
-13.1%
-15.8%
-1.4%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Nifty 50 Nifty
Midcap
MSCI EM Shanghai South
Korea
Hongkong Thailand US
$ Mn
For May 2018

5. Confidential | 5
31.1
24.6
76.0
43.1
7.8 6.4 7.5
19.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18
Commercial vehicle sales Passenger vehicle sales
23.8
18.3
16.9
9.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18
2 Wheeler Sales
Strong 2 Wheeler Sales indicate rural economy recovering
PMI rises to 53.1, Manufacturing strong, orders from overseas
increasing
Credit Growth has started to pick up, higher bond yields also helping
Commercial Vehicle Sales (an early indicator of industrial growth)
showing impressive growth
Source: KIE, Nomura
YoY% growth
Domestic Economy showing greenshoots in both Consumption and
Manufacturing , Credit also picking up
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Credit growth (services) Credit growth (personal loans)
49.7
50.8
51.9
50.4
53.3
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
%%
% %

6. Confidential | 6
Earnings and Valuation
Post recent correction, Mid Caps still at a 13% premium over large
caps
We expect 26% EBITDA growth in Q1FY19 from our KIE universe
companies
Post stable outlook in the beginning, FY19 earrings expectation has
also started to taper off
KIE expects 23% and 20% Nifty 50 Earnings growth for FY19
and FY20
21.1
24.0
41.7
11.3
28.2
19.7 18.9
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Auto Banking Consumers Energy Pharma Tech Nifty 50
PE 2019E
400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
650.00
700.00
Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18
FY2019 FY2018 FY2017
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
EBITDA Growth (YOY) % PAT Growth (YOY) %
Source: Bloomberg, KIE * Based on KIE Estimates on free float basis.
Better if Actual vs Expected >5%, Worse if Actual vs Expected <-5%
As of 11th July 2018
12.8%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18
Premium of Mid Cap over Large Cap

7. Confidential | 7
Key Triggers
• Global Economic data : World economy improving
• Resolution of NPA: Effective addressal of NCLT lists
• Weaker Rupee: To benefit IT and Pharma
• Monsoon/Rural recovery: Government focus on rural economy
including increase of MSP could benefit rural consumption
Positive Triggers
• FII Outflow from EM: US tax reforms and rising global rates could
trigger capital flight from Emerging Markets like India
• Earnings: Consensus expected earnings growth for domestic equities is
high at around 22% for FY19, any downgrade would make the valuations
more expensive
• Trade Wars: Further tariffs imposed by US/China and strict enforcement
of Iran sanctions
• Monetary Policy: Faster than expected monetary tightening in Europe
and US
• Weaker Macro: Higher crude prices and low GST collection could lead
to de-rating of Equity valuations
• Higher Provisioning : Due to recent RBI rule and continued slippages,
Banks could show high provisioning this FY also thus impacting Nifty EPS
• Elections: A combined opposition can be threat to BJP in next elections
Risks

8. Confidential | 8
India Equities: Valuations & Strategy – Maintain Neutral Stance
Nifty was flat for the month of June for the second consecutive month. However the midcap index once again saw a huge
divergence and lost ~4%. The month was driven by depreciation seen in INR which is down ~8% for 2018 and currently stands at
69/USD. Crude stood at $78/barrel much higher than comfort zone of $68/barrel. FIIs flows remained negative for the third month
in a row, however this was compensated by positive DII flows.
At current levels of approx. 11,008 (17th July 2018), Nifty is trading at a 1 year forward PE of 18.8X. In the current scenario, we
continue to maintain a Neutral stance..
Mutual Funds: As domestic liquidity continues to drive markets, we advise new investments to be staggered in Mutual Funds via
SIPs/STPs.
Recommended allocation within equity mutual funds is as under:
• 50% Large Cap allocation (Prefer Large Caps due to relatively Favorable Valuations)
• 50% Multi Cap allocation (such funds currently have a bias toward large cap)
• For investors who want equity exposure but have low appetite for volatility, they can take equity exposure through
Balanced Funds. Balanced funds have around 25% to 30% of their portfolio into Debt instruments which provides cushion
to the portfolio return during market volatility.
Source: EPS Estimates by KIE

9. Confidential | 9
Recommended Large Cap, Multi Cap & Balanced Fund Performances
Source: MFI Explorer
Returns are CAGR as on July 16, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on June 29, 2018.
Scheme Name Corpus (In crs.) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Investor Suitability
Large Cap Funds
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund) 17,496 6.40 12.46 9.53 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Large & Mid Cap Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Advantage Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Advantage Fund) 5,948 2.35 10.29 22.22 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra)
Axis Focused 25 Fund 4,724 19.49 14.98 19.43 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Franklin India Equity Fund (erstwhile Franklin India Prima Plus Fund) 11,470 3.79 7.74 18.59 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Standard Multicap Fund (erstwhile Kotak Select Focus Fund) 19,827 5.32 11.72 21.05 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T India Value Fund 7,648 -1.95 11.26 24.05 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mirae Asset India Equity Fund (erstwhile Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund) 7,945 6.38 11.31 20.88 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Motilal Oswal Multicap 35 Fund 13,016 6.30 12.45 - All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mid & Small Cap Funds (Mid Cap/Small Cap)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Small Cap Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Small & Midcap Fund ) 2,182 -2.95 13.50 24.58 All Risk Profiles except Secure
HDFC Small Cap Fund 4,143 11.51 17.20 22.86 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme 3,163 0.59 11.49 26.42 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Midcap Fund 2,808 0.96 14.72 28.47 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Aggressive Hybrid Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Hybrid '95 (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Balanced 95) 14,484 1.57 8.49 16.65 All Risk Profiles except Secure
HDFC Hybrid Equity Fund (erstwhile HDFC Balanced Fund) 21,961 1.44 9.60 18.72 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Hybrid Equity Fund (erstwhile L&T India Prudence Fund) 10,570 3.20 9.50 17.97 All Risk Profiles except Secure
SBI Equity Hybrid Fund (erstwhile SBI Magnum Balanced Fund) 24,959 6.43 8.68 16.95 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Balanced Advantage Funds (Balanced Advantage OR Dynamic Asset Allocation)
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 27,877 6.00 8.44 14.25 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Indices
Nifty 10.56 8.30 12.92

10. Debt Market Update
&
Debt MF Strategy

11. Confidential | 11
Indicators
Policy Action
• Rate hiked by 25bps to 6.25%
• Tone remained cautious with focus on upside inflation
risks
• We now expect another 25 bps rate hike in August
Inflation
• CPI was at 5.0% in June 2018 was below expectation
• RBI increased expectation of 2HFY19 to 4.7% from
earlier 4.4%
• We expect March 2019 CPI at 4.6% vs RBI’s 4.7%
10 Year G-Sec Benchmark Yield
• G-Sec segment expected to be volatile
• We expect that this will be a shallow rate hike cycle
Liquidity
• Liquidity at neutral level
• Given the increased allowance in SLR for LCR, Bank’s CD
issuance should reduce
INR
• FII outflows and CAD put pressure on INR, RBI
expected to support INR
• Broad range of 66-68 to hold
Key Risks
• Global monetary tightening
• Increase in Inflation expectation
• Crude Prices
• Impact of GST revenues and spending on Fiscal Deficit
• Adverse Monsoons
G-Sec Supply
• RBI has done 2 OMO of 10,000 cr
• Still weak demand sentiment and low volumes
Debt Market: Key Variables

12. Confidential | 12
10 Year Benchmark close to 8% level , RBI sees upside risk to inflation
107
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
AmountinRs.Bn
164
7.89
6.25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
5.75
6.25
6.75
7.25
7.75
Spread(bps)
%Yield
Spread 10 Year G Sec Repo Rate
Despite rate hike, 10 Year spread over repo still at high level
5
-3
2
-2
2
0
-6
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
6.00
6.40
6.80
7.20
7.60
8.00
8.40
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 8Y 10Y
Spread(bps)
%Yield
Change Current G-Sec Yield 1M earlier G-Sec Yield
Yields have stabilized
Liquidity maintained at surplus level
Rising household inflation expectation and core inflation are
a concern
Note: As of 11th July 2018, Source Bloomberg
5.00%
6.35%
Aug
17
Sep
17
Oct 17 Nov
17
Dec
17
Jan 18 Feb
18
Mar
18
Apr 18 May
18
Jun
18
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
CPI Core Inflation

13. Confidential | 13
INR under pressure due to higher crude prices and FII outflows
2,757
-221
379
1,470
-421 -803
-2,105
-2,629
-1,621
Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
USDMillion
FIIs have sold ~7.6 bn USD since 31st Jan 2018
68.65
Aug
17
Sep
17
Oct
17
Nov
17
Dec
17
Jan
18
Feb
18
Mar
18
Apr
18
May
18
Jun
18
Jul 18
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
69.0
70.0
Indian currency has depreciated by ~ 8% in 2018 reaching a low of
INR 69/USD
956.1
Oct 17Nov 17Dec 17Jan 18Feb 18Mar 18Apr 18May 18Jun 18
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
GST collections improve but could be due to seasonality effect
Note: As of 10th July 2018, Source Bloomberg, Nomura
78.07
Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Brent at $78/bbl is above Fiscal estimates based on $68/bbl
$/bbl
Rs bn

14. Confidential | 14
Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
Public Banks Private Banks Mutual Funds
After consecutive months of selling, PSU Banks were net buyers
in June 2018
6.92
7.89
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 8Y 10Y
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
Gsec Yield curve is steep till 4 Year and then almost flattish, hence it
better to stay at the short end
Debt Market Trends
Note: As of 11th July 2018, Source Bloomberg, MFI
CCIL Gsec Net buying
8.08
7.45
Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
1 Year CD 6M CD
6 Month and 1 Year rate still at attractive level
Rs cr
6.76 6.40
4.76
5.54
0.99
Liquid
Ultra
Short/Low
Duration/M
oney
Market/F…
Short
Term/Corp
orate
Bond/Bank
ing
Medium/
Credit
Funds
Mediumto
Long/Dyna
mic/Gilt
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
In Last 1 Year , Liquid Funds have outperformed other Debt
categories due to marked to market impact

15. Confidential | 15
India Fixed Income: Strategy
Substantial part of the portfolio should be deployed through a mix of high rated and credit accrual strategies. Exit from duration
funds only for investors who have completed 3 years and can deploy with another 3 years view.
Investment Focus:
Passive Accrual-Oriented Debt funds
 High quality portfolios (~100% AAA / Sovereign)
 Portfolio is run on a passive accrual basis i.e buying a bond and holding it till maturity thereby earning from the accruing of
interest
 Higher predictability of return, lower volatility & lower interest rate risk
High Yield Credit-Oriented Funds
 Low volatility on account of maturity of portfolio between 3 – 5 years, attractive and stable accrual yields
 Experienced teams to carefully evaluate and tightly monitor high yielding debt instruments
Short Term Bond Funds
 Actively managed to run a low avg. maturity of 2-3 years, attractive risk-reward
 Lower volatility and interest rate risk than Dynamic Bond Funds, better suited from a risk-adjusted basis in volatile markets
For investments up to 3 months, prefer Ultra Short Term Funds
For investments for atleast 6 months, prefer a mix of Ultra Short Term Funds and Arbitrage Funds.
Source : AMCs, other Financial websites

16. Confidential | 16
Recommended Short Term Bond, High Yield & Debt Others Performances
Source: MFI Explorer
Scheme Returns are as on July 16, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Crisil indices returns are as on July 15, 2018. Returns are CAGR. Corpus
size is as on June 29, 2018.
Scheme Name Corpus (In crs.) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Investor Suitability
Short Term 1-3 yrs (Corporate Bond/ Banking & PSU/Short Duration)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Short Term
Fund)
15,654 3.16 5.14 7.03 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Axis Banking & PSU Debt Fund 816 3.62 6.04 6.93 All Risk Profiles
Edelweiss Corporate Bond Fund 338 -0.07 4.05 6.45 All Risk Profiles except Secure
IDFC Corporate Bond Fund 11,170 2.56 4.79 6.94 All Risk Profiles
HDFC Banking and PSU Debt Fund 3,218 0.43 4.22 6.74 All Risk Profiles except Secure
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 5,590 2.01 3.92 7.12 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund 1,022 2.31 4.53 6.88 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Sundaram Corporate Bond Fund (erstwhile Sundaram Flexible Fund - Flexible Income) 382 -2.75 2.04 5.90 All Risk Profiles
Medium & Credit Risk Funds (Medium Duration/Credit Risk)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Credit Risk Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond
Fund)
7,409 4.50 5.75 8.40 All Risk Profiles except Secure
BOI AXA Credit Risk Fund 1,602 6.07 7.55 9.28 All Risk Profiles except Secure & Conservative
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund) 10,886 4.54 5.67 7.60 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Credit Risk Fund (erstwhile Kotak Income Opportunities Fund) 5,191 3.59 5.40 7.38 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Credit Risk Fund (erstwhile L&T Income Opportunities Fund) 3,798 1.95 4.87 7.28 All Risk Profiles except Secure
UTI Credit Risk Fund (erstwhile UTI Income Opportunities Fund) 5,090 1.97 5.01 7.24 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Dynamic Debt (Medium to Long Duration/ Dynamic Bond/Gilt)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund 6,502 1.10 -0.41 4.52 All Risk Profiles except Secure
HDFC Income Fund 1,108 -2.32 -1.25 3.88 All Risk Profiles except Secure
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan) 2,103 1.50 2.58 7.74 All Risk Profiles except Secure
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Income Opportunities Fund) 3,298 -1.59 1.94 5.83 All Risk Profiles
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt Fund) 1,192 -1.79 0.29 6.53 All Risk Profiles except Secure
LIC MF Bond Fund 313 -1.55 0.25 4.71 All Risk Profiles
SBI Magnum Gilt Fund (erstwhile SBI Magnum Gilt Long Term Plan) 2,141 -1.03 -0.65 6.82 All Risk Profiles except Secure
SBI Magnum Income Fund 1,676 -0.42 1.99 6.81 All Risk Profiles except Secure
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund 1,307 0.07 1.50 7.22 All Risk Profiles except Secure

17. Confidential | 17
Disclaimer
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