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Epidemiologic evidence –
Energy balance-related factors and
pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk
World Obesity and WCRF International
Hot Topic Conference
1st September, 2016
Doris Chan
No conflict of interest
Systematic literature review and meta-analysis of energy
balance-related factors and breast cancer risk
• Searched in PubMed and reference list of relevant articles up
to April 2015
• Study designs: Cohorts, case-cohort, and nested case-control,
or pooled studies
• Exposures:
• Body mass index (BMI)
• Waist circumference/ waist-hip-ratio
• Adult weight gain, from age 18-<30 years to study baseline
• Physical activity, all types
• Outcomes: Risk of pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer
incidence in women, overall and by hormone receptor status of the
tumour and menopausal hormone therapy use (MHT)
• Statistical methods:
• Dose-response meta-analyses
• Random-effects models to calculate summary relative risk (SRR)
• Cochrane Q test and I square
• Subgroup meta-analyses
• Egger’s test and funnel plot – small study/publication bias
 Overall 127 publications were included in the meta-analyses
Meta-analysis of energy balance-related factors and
breast cancer risk
Body mass index
(BMI)
NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis
.
.
Premenopausal breast cancer
Bandera
Bhaskaran
Catsburg
Wada
Couto
Cecchini
Manders
Lundqvist
Reeves
Reinier
Li
Lukanova
Michels
Lahmann
Weiderpass
Manjer
van den Brandt
Sonnenschein
Galanis
Kaaks
Tulinius
Tornberg
De Stavola
Vatten
Subtotal (I-squared = 54.5%, p = 0.001)
Postmenopausal breast cancer
Bandera
Kabat
Bhaskaran
Catsburg
Emaus
Guo
Horn
Miao Jonasson
Wada
Couto
Krishnan
Cecchini
Harlid
Sczaniecka
White
Schonfeld
Gaudet
Torio
Rod
Kerlikowske
Song
Lundqvist
Reeves
Krebs
Li
Feigelson
Manjer
van den Brandt
Sonnenschein
Galanis
Kaaks
Tulinius
Tornberg
De Stavola
Vatten
Subtotal (I-squared = 73.6%, p = 0.000)
Author
2015
2014
2014
2014
2013
2012
2011
2007
2007
2007
2006
2006
2006
2004
2004
2001
2000
1999
1998
1998
1997
1994
1993
1992
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2012
2011
2010
2010
2009
2008
2008
2007
2007
2006
2006
2004
2001
2000
1999
1998
1998
1997
1994
1993
1990
Year
0.97 (0.91, 1.03)
0.89 (0.87, 0.91)
1.01 (0.87, 1.17)
1.22 (1.00, 1.47)
0.93 (0.80, 1.08)
1.30 (1.03, 1.62)
0.78 (0.49, 1.24)
0.95 (0.84, 1.08)
0.93 (0.86, 1.00)
0.95 (0.81, 1.13)
1.04 (0.77, 1.42)
0.70 (0.46, 1.08)
0.96 (0.90, 1.03)
0.90 (0.82, 1.00)
0.82 (0.72, 0.93)
1.01 (0.74, 1.37)
0.86 (0.77, 0.96)
0.87 (0.65, 1.19)
1.25 (0.91, 1.71)
0.97 (0.74, 1.26)
1.05 (0.84, 1.31)
0.69 (0.56, 0.84)
1.02 (0.66, 1.59)
0.86 (0.78, 0.95)
0.93 (0.90, 0.97)
1.05 (1.00, 1.11)
1.13 (1.10, 1.16)
1.05 (1.03, 1.07)
1.13 (1.00, 1.29)
1.05 (1.00, 1.11)
1.42 (0.98, 2.07)
1.16 (1.09, 1.25)
1.19 (1.07, 1.33)
1.28 (1.16, 1.40)
1.11 (0.90, 1.37)
1.12 (1.03, 1.21)
1.06 (0.96, 1.17)
1.05 (0.94, 1.18)
1.06 (0.98, 1.16)
1.12 (1.03, 1.22)
1.09 (1.06, 1.12)
0.93 (0.73, 1.19)
1.10 (0.95, 1.34)
1.13 (0.96, 1.33)
1.09 (1.06, 1.12)
1.40 (1.28, 1.61)
1.16 (1.05, 1.28)
1.18 (1.15, 1.22)
1.14 (0.98, 1.32)
1.71 (1.26, 2.34)
1.12 (1.07, 1.18)
0.94 (0.74, 1.19)
1.09 (1.03, 1.14)
1.56 (1.21, 2.01)
1.23 (1.03, 1.47)
0.90 (0.63, 1.28)
1.12 (0.99, 1.26)
1.13 (1.02, 1.26)
0.95 (0.61, 1.47)
0.90 (0.68, 1.18)
1.12 (1.09, 1.15)
kg/m
2
RR (95% CI)
per 5
8.68
10.90
4.37
3.18
4.34
2.52
0.71
5.36
7.96
3.84
1.49
0.82
8.65
6.60
5.25
1.49
6.04
1.53
1.41
1.96
2.55
2.91
0.78
6.66
100.00
4.85
5.86
6.15
2.17
5.03
0.37
4.12
2.70
3.12
1.06
3.64
3.01
2.69
3.54
3.50
5.80
0.81
1.47
1.60
5.74
2.50
3.06
5.64
1.82
0.53
4.90
0.85
4.79
0.78
1.36
0.42
2.41
2.76
0.28
0.65
100.00
Weight
%
AMBER Consortium
CPRD
CSDLH
Eight Japanese cohorts
WLHS
P-1
HEBON
Sweden,Finland Co-twin study,1975
MWS
VMC
SWHS
NSHDC
NHS II
EPIC
WLHS, Sweden and Norway
MPP
Pooling Project
NYUWHS
Hawaii State Department of Health, 1975
DOM-project Utrecht
Reykjavik Study, 1968
Sweden, 1971
Guernsey G2 and G3
Norway, 1974
AMBER Consortium
WHI
CPRD
CSDLH
EPIC-PANACEA
Northern China 2006-2011
Norwegian Nord-Trondelag Health Study
Swedish National Diabetes Register Cohort Study
Eight Japanese cohorts
WLHS
MCCS
P-1 and STAR
NSHDC
VITAL
MEC
Four NCI cohorts
Columbia, MO cohort
CLUE II
CCHS
BCSC
KNHIC
Sweden,Finland Co-twin study,1975
MWS
SOF
SWHS
CPS II
MPP
Pooling Project
NYUWHS
Hawaii State Department of Health, 1975
DOM-project Utrecht
Reykjavik Study, 1968
Sweden, 1971
Guernsey G2 and G3
Norway National Health Screening Service, 1974
Description
Study
0.97 (0.91, 1.03)
0.89 (0.87, 0.91)
1.01 (0.87, 1.17)
1.22 (1.00, 1.47)
0.93 (0.80, 1.08)
1.30 (1.03, 1.62)
0.78 (0.49, 1.24)
0.95 (0.84, 1.08)
0.93 (0.86, 1.00)
0.95 (0.81, 1.13)
1.04 (0.77, 1.42)
0.70 (0.46, 1.08)
0.96 (0.90, 1.03)
0.90 (0.82, 1.00)
0.82 (0.72, 0.93)
1.01 (0.74, 1.37)
0.86 (0.77, 0.96)
0.87 (0.65, 1.19)
1.25 (0.91, 1.71)
0.97 (0.74, 1.26)
1.05 (0.84, 1.31)
0.69 (0.56, 0.84)
1.02 (0.66, 1.59)
0.86 (0.78, 0.95)
0.93 (0.90, 0.97)
1.05 (1.00, 1.11)
1.13 (1.10, 1.16)
1.05 (1.03, 1.07)
1.13 (1.00, 1.29)
1.05 (1.00, 1.11)
1.42 (0.98, 2.07)
1.16 (1.09, 1.25)
1.19 (1.07, 1.33)
1.28 (1.16, 1.40)
1.11 (0.90, 1.37)
1.12 (1.03, 1.21)
1.06 (0.96, 1.17)
1.05 (0.94, 1.18)
1.06 (0.98, 1.16)
1.12 (1.03, 1.22)
1.09 (1.06, 1.12)
0.93 (0.73, 1.19)
1.10 (0.95, 1.34)
1.13 (0.96, 1.33)
1.09 (1.06, 1.12)
1.40 (1.28, 1.61)
1.16 (1.05, 1.28)
1.18 (1.15, 1.22)
1.14 (0.98, 1.32)
1.71 (1.26, 2.34)
1.12 (1.07, 1.18)
0.94 (0.74, 1.19)
1.09 (1.03, 1.14)
1.56 (1.21, 2.01)
1.23 (1.03, 1.47)
0.90 (0.63, 1.28)
1.12 (0.99, 1.26)
1.13 (1.02, 1.26)
0.95 (0.61, 1.47)
0.90 (0.68, 1.18)
1.12 (1.09, 1.15)
kg/m
2
RR (95% CI)
per 5
8.68
10.90
4.37
3.18
4.34
2.52
0.71
5.36
7.96
3.84
1.49
0.82
8.65
6.60
5.25
1.49
6.04
1.53
1.41
1.96
2.55
2.91
0.78
6.66
100.00
4.85
5.86
6.15
2.17
5.03
0.37
4.12
2.70
3.12
1.06
3.64
3.01
2.69
3.54
3.50
5.80
0.81
1.47
1.60
5.74
2.50
3.06
5.64
1.82
0.53
4.90
0.85
4.79
0.78
1.36
0.42
2.41
2.76
0.28
0.65
100.00
Weight
%
1.45 1 2.2
Premenopausal breast cancer
Per 5 kg/m2
SRR: 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.97)
Postmenopausal breast cancer
SRR: 1.12 (95% CI: 1.09-1.15)
Summary RRs per 5 kg/m2
BMI and postmenopausal breast cancer by menopausal
hormone therapy use
Never users
Never/former users
Current users
Ever users
MHT
1.16 (1.10, 1.23)
1.20 (1.15, 1.25)
0.98 (0.90, 1.06)
1.01 (0.96, 1.06)
RR (95% CI)
15
4
5
13
Studies
10487
3369
3940
3004
Cases
72%
0%
69%
0%
I
2
1.16 (1.10, 1.23)
1.20 (1.15, 1.25)
0.98 (0.90, 1.06)
1.01 (0.96, 1.06)
RR (95% CI)
15
4
5
13
Studies
1.88 1 1.25
Summary RRs per 5 kg/m2
BMI and postmenopausal breast cancer by hormone
receptor status
ER-positive
ER-negative
PR-positive
PR-negative
Subtype
1.17 (1.09, 1.25)
1.00 (0.95, 1.06)
1.47 (1.36, 1.60)
1.05 (0.93, 1.18)
RR (95% CI)
14
13
5
5
Studies
9587
2180
1314
654
Cases
91%
7%
0%
0%
I
2
1.17 (1.09, 1.25)
1.00 (0.95, 1.06)
1.47 (1.36, 1.60)
1.05 (0.93, 1.18)
RR (95% CI)
14
13
5
5
Studies
1.625 1 1.6
Waist circumference and premenopausal breast
cancer risk
Studies not adjusted for BMI
Per 10 cm
SRR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95-1.04)
Studies adjusted for BMI
SRR: 1.14 (95% CI: 1.04-1.26)
NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis
.
.
BMI not adjusted
Catsburg
Harris
Palmer
Lahmann
Huang
Kaaks
Subtotal (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.904)
BMI adjusted
Harris
Lahmann
Huang
Subtotal (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.853)
Author
2014
2011
2007
2004
1999
1998
2011
2004
1999
Year
1.01 (0.89, 1.14)
0.97 (0.88, 1.07)
1.03 (0.95, 1.12)
0.97 (0.86, 1.09)
0.99 (0.86, 1.15)
0.93 (0.76, 1.13)
0.99 (0.95, 1.04)
1.14 (1.00, 1.29)
1.10 (0.91, 1.35)
1.20 (0.97, 1.47)
1.14 (1.04, 1.26)
cm (95% CI)
RR per 10
15.34
21.75
30.44
16.09
10.79
5.59
100.00
55.57
23.17
21.26
100.00
Weight
%
CSDLH
NHS II
BWHS
EPIC
NHS
DOM-project
NHS II
EPIC
NHS
Description
Study
1.01 (0.89, 1.14)
0.97 (0.88, 1.07)
1.03 (0.95, 1.12)
0.97 (0.86, 1.09)
0.99 (0.86, 1.15)
0.93 (0.76, 1.13)
0.99 (0.95, 1.04)
1.14 (1.00, 1.29)
1.10 (0.91, 1.35)
1.20 (0.97, 1.47)
1.14 (1.04, 1.26)
cm (95% CI)
RR per 10
15.34
21.75
30.44
16.09
10.79
5.59
100.00
55.57
23.17
21.26
100.00
Weight
%
1.75 1 1.5
Waist circumference and postmenopausal breast
cancer risk
Studies not adjusted for BMI
Per 10 cm
SRR: 1.11 (95% CI: 1.09-1.13)
Studies adjusted for BMI
SRR: 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.12)
NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis
.
.
BMI not adjusted
Kabat
Catsburg
Gaudet
Ahn
Palmer
Krebs
Rinaldi
MacInnis
Folsom
Huang
Kaaks
Subtotal (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.590)
BMI adjusted
Kabat
Gaudet
Lahmann
Sellers
Huang
Subtotal (I-squared = 72.0%, p = 0.006)
Author
2015
2014
2014
2007
2007
2006
2006
2004
2000
1999
1998
2015
2014
2004
2002
1999
Year
1.11 (1.08, 1.13)
1.08 (0.97, 1.20)
1.13 (1.08, 1.19)
1.09 (1.04, 1.14)
1.02 (0.93, 1.11)
1.14 (1.02, 1.28)
1.12 (1.02, 1.23)
1.13 (1.03, 1.24)
1.16 (1.10, 1.22)
1.10 (1.03, 1.18)
1.25 (0.90, 1.73)
1.11 (1.09, 1.13)
1.11 (1.09, 1.14)
1.00 (0.92, 1.08)
1.09 (1.00, 1.20)
1.02 (0.96, 1.07)
1.09 (0.98, 1.20)
1.06 (1.01, 1.12)
cm (95% CI)
RR per 10
47.69
2.21
11.24
12.10
3.27
1.95
2.77
3.07
10.18
5.29
0.25
100.00
29.21
17.77
15.40
23.22
14.40
100.00
Weight
%
WHI-CT and OS
CSDLH
CPS II
NIH-AARP
BWHS
SOF
EPIC
MCCS
IWHS
NHS
DOM-project
WHI-CT and OS
CPS II
EPIC
IWHS
NHS
Description
Study
1.11 (1.08, 1.13)
1.08 (0.97, 1.20)
1.13 (1.08, 1.19)
1.09 (1.04, 1.14)
1.02 (0.93, 1.11)
1.14 (1.02, 1.28)
1.12 (1.02, 1.23)
1.13 (1.03, 1.24)
1.16 (1.10, 1.22)
1.10 (1.03, 1.18)
1.25 (0.90, 1.73)
1.11 (1.09, 1.13)
1.11 (1.09, 1.14)
1.00 (0.92, 1.08)
1.09 (1.00, 1.20)
1.02 (0.96, 1.07)
1.09 (0.98, 1.20)
1.06 (1.01, 1.12)
cm (95% CI)
RR per 10
47.69
2.21
11.24
12.10
3.27
1.95
2.77
3.07
10.18
5.29
0.25
100.00
29.21
17.77
15.40
23.22
14.40
100.00
Weight
%
1.75 1 1.5
Early adult BMI and pre- and postmenopausal
breast cancer risk
NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis
.
.
Premenopausal breast cancer
Bandera
Catsburg
Manders
Suzuki
Burton
Li
Michels
Weiderpass
London
Subtotal (I-squared = 14.9%, p = 0.310)
Postmenopausal breast cancer
Bandera
Catsburg
Han
Krishnan
White
Suzuki
Burton
Kawai
Torio
Li
Morimoto
Sellers
van den Brandt
London
Subtotal (I-squared = 43.5%, p = 0.042)
Author
2015
2014
2011
2011
2010
2006
2006
2004
1989
2015
2014
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2010
2010
2006
2002
2002
1997
1989
Year
0.87 (0.75, 1.01)
0.86 (0.61, 1.21)
0.61 (0.31, 1.21)
0.78 (0.57, 1.06)
1.28 (0.62, 2.59)
0.90 (0.59, 1.38)
0.83 (0.74, 0.94)
0.90 (0.77, 1.10)
0.68 (0.58, 0.80)
0.82 (0.76, 0.89)
0.88 (0.75, 1.03)
0.89 (0.62, 1.29)
0.90 (0.73, 1.11)
0.90 (0.79, 1.04)
0.88 (0.82, 0.95)
0.77 (0.59, 1.02)
0.86 (0.53, 1.47)
0.44 (0.25, 0.77)
0.90 (0.70, 1.22)
0.76 (0.50, 1.17)
0.75 (0.62, 0.91)
0.67 (0.59, 0.76)
0.86 (0.71, 1.05)
0.79 (0.63, 0.99)
0.82 (0.76, 0.88)
kg/m
2
(95% CI)
RR per 5
20.42
4.92
1.34
6.06
1.23
3.40
28.01
15.88
18.74
100.00
10.12
3.20
7.52
11.58
16.44
5.17
1.81
1.52
5.01
2.47
8.14
12.15
8.17
6.69
100.00
Weight
%
AMBER Consortium
CSDLH
HEBON
JPHC I and II
Glasgow Alumni Cohort study
SWHS
NHS II
WLHCS
NHS
AMBER Consortium
CSDLH
ARIC
MCCS
MEC
JPHC I and II
Glasgow Alumni Cohort study
MCS
CLUE II
SWHS
WHI-OS
IWHS
NLCS
NHS
Description
Study
0.87 (0.75, 1.01)
0.86 (0.61, 1.21)
0.61 (0.31, 1.21)
0.78 (0.57, 1.06)
1.28 (0.62, 2.59)
0.90 (0.59, 1.38)
0.83 (0.74, 0.94)
0.90 (0.77, 1.10)
0.68 (0.58, 0.80)
0.82 (0.76, 0.89)
0.88 (0.75, 1.03)
0.89 (0.62, 1.29)
0.90 (0.73, 1.11)
0.90 (0.79, 1.04)
0.88 (0.82, 0.95)
0.77 (0.59, 1.02)
0.86 (0.53, 1.47)
0.44 (0.25, 0.77)
0.90 (0.70, 1.22)
0.76 (0.50, 1.17)
0.75 (0.62, 0.91)
0.67 (0.59, 0.76)
0.86 (0.71, 1.05)
0.79 (0.63, 0.99)
0.82 (0.76, 0.88)
kg/m
2
(95% CI)
RR per 5
20.42
4.92
1.34
6.06
1.23
3.40
28.01
15.88
18.74
100.00
10.12
3.20
7.52
11.58
16.44
5.17
1.81
1.52
5.01
2.47
8.14
12.15
8.17
6.69
100.00
Weight
%
1.45 1 2.5
Premenopausal breast cancer
Per 5 kg/m2
SRR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76-0.89)
Postmenopausal breast cancer
SRR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76-0.88)
Adult weight gain and pre- and postmenopausal
breast cancer risk
Premenopausal breast cancer
SRR per 5 kg increase:
0.99 (95% CI: 0.96-1.03)
Postmenopausal breast cancer
SRR: 1.06 (95% CI: 1.05-1.08)
NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis
.
.
Premenopausal
Catsburg
Michels
Manders
Palmer
Li
Lahmann
Breslow
Subtotal (I-squared = 12.7%, p = 0.333)
Postmenopausal
Zhang
Catsburg
Alsaker
Krishnan
White
Kawai
Ahn
Palmer
Li
Lahmann
Feigelson
Radimer
Breslow
van den Brandt
Folsom
Subtotal (I-squared = 37.5%, p = 0.071)
Author
2014
2012
2011
2007
2006
2005
2001
2015
2014
2013
2013
2012
2010
2007
2007
2006
2005
2004
2004
2001
1997
1990
Year
1.01 (0.93, 1.09)
0.96 (0.92, 1.00)
0.94 (0.78, 1.15)
1.02 (0.97, 1.08)
1.01 (0.90, 1.13)
0.99 (0.89, 1.08)
1.18 (0.97, 1.45)
0.99 (0.96, 1.03)
1.06 (1.05, 1.08)
1.06 (1.01, 1.11)
1.10 (1.03, 1.18)
1.06 (1.03, 1.10)
1.07 (1.05, 1.08)
1.26 (1.00, 1.59)
1.05 (1.03, 1.07)
1.00 (0.94, 1.07)
1.26 (1.13, 1.40)
1.05 (1.00, 1.10)
1.07 (1.04, 1.09)
1.12 (1.01, 1.24)
1.14 (0.99, 1.30)
1.05 (0.98, 1.13)
1.14 (1.03, 1.25)
1.06 (1.05, 1.08)
RR (95% CI)
Weight gain
13.43
38.66
2.60
25.66
6.98
10.22
2.45
100.00
18.66
5.25
2.94
8.84
18.66
0.27
15.76
3.45
1.18
5.59
12.94
1.35
0.80
2.82
1.47
100.00
Weight
%
CSDLH
NHS and NHS II
HEBON
BWHS
SWHS
EPIC
NHEFS
NHS
CSDLH
HUNT2
MCCS
MEC
MCS
NIH-AARP
BWHS
SWHS
EPIC
CPS-II Nutrition Cohort
FHS
NHEFS
NLCS
IWHS
Description
Study
1.01 (0.93, 1.09)
0.96 (0.92, 1.00)
0.94 (0.78, 1.15)
1.02 (0.97, 1.08)
1.01 (0.90, 1.13)
0.99 (0.89, 1.08)
1.18 (0.97, 1.45)
0.99 (0.96, 1.03)
1.06 (1.05, 1.08)
1.06 (1.01, 1.11)
1.10 (1.03, 1.18)
1.06 (1.03, 1.10)
1.07 (1.05, 1.08)
1.26 (1.00, 1.59)
1.05 (1.03, 1.07)
1.00 (0.94, 1.07)
1.26 (1.13, 1.40)
1.05 (1.00, 1.10)
1.07 (1.04, 1.09)
1.12 (1.01, 1.24)
1.14 (0.99, 1.30)
1.05 (0.98, 1.13)
1.14 (1.03, 1.25)
1.06 (1.05, 1.08)
RR (95% CI)
Weight gain
13.43
38.66
2.60
25.66
6.98
10.22
2.45
100.00
18.66
5.25
2.94
8.84
18.66
0.27
15.76
3.45
1.18
5.59
12.94
1.35
0.80
2.82
1.47
100.00
Weight
%
1.7 1 1.43
Physical activity and pre- and postmenopausal
breast cancer risk – dose-response meta-analysis
Exposure Premenopausal breast
cancer
Postmenopausal breast
cancer
Physical
activity
RR (95% CI), I square (%)
Number of studies/cases
Recreational
Per 10 MET-
hour/week
0.96 (0.90-1.03), 69%
3 studies, 2 331 cases
0.98 (0.97-0.99), 0%
5 studies, 18 486 cases
Vigorous
Per 30
minute/day
0.91 (0.83-1.01), 0%
3 studies, 1 473 cases
0.94 (0.86-1.02), 0%
3 studies, 3 293 cases
Summary RRs per increment unit of physical activity
Summary
• Greater abdominal obesity increases risk of pre- and
postmenopausal breast cancer
• Weight gain and general obesity are more relevant after
menopause
• Early adult obesity and physical activity are inversely
associated with pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer
• Higher body fatness increases the risk of ER/PR+ breast
cancers and not ER/PR- breast cancers
• Menopausal hormone therapy use masks the association
of body fatness with breast cancer risk
Epidemiologic evidence – energy balance-related factors and
pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk
Thank you
Acknowledgements
WCRF International
CUP Principal Investigator:
Dr Teresa Norat
CUP teammates (past and present):
Leila Abar, Dagfinn Aune, Rosa Lau
Elli Polemiti, Deborah Navarro Rosenblatt,
Christophe Stevens, Ana Rita Vieire, Rui Vieira
Snieguole Vingeliene
http://www.wcrf.org/int/research-we-fund/continuous-update-project-cup

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Epidemiologic evidence – Energy balance-related factors and pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk - Doris Chan

  • 1. Epidemiologic evidence – Energy balance-related factors and pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk World Obesity and WCRF International Hot Topic Conference 1st September, 2016 Doris Chan No conflict of interest
  • 2. Systematic literature review and meta-analysis of energy balance-related factors and breast cancer risk • Searched in PubMed and reference list of relevant articles up to April 2015 • Study designs: Cohorts, case-cohort, and nested case-control, or pooled studies • Exposures: • Body mass index (BMI) • Waist circumference/ waist-hip-ratio • Adult weight gain, from age 18-<30 years to study baseline • Physical activity, all types • Outcomes: Risk of pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer incidence in women, overall and by hormone receptor status of the tumour and menopausal hormone therapy use (MHT)
  • 3. • Statistical methods: • Dose-response meta-analyses • Random-effects models to calculate summary relative risk (SRR) • Cochrane Q test and I square • Subgroup meta-analyses • Egger’s test and funnel plot – small study/publication bias  Overall 127 publications were included in the meta-analyses Meta-analysis of energy balance-related factors and breast cancer risk
  • 4. Body mass index (BMI) NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis . . Premenopausal breast cancer Bandera Bhaskaran Catsburg Wada Couto Cecchini Manders Lundqvist Reeves Reinier Li Lukanova Michels Lahmann Weiderpass Manjer van den Brandt Sonnenschein Galanis Kaaks Tulinius Tornberg De Stavola Vatten Subtotal (I-squared = 54.5%, p = 0.001) Postmenopausal breast cancer Bandera Kabat Bhaskaran Catsburg Emaus Guo Horn Miao Jonasson Wada Couto Krishnan Cecchini Harlid Sczaniecka White Schonfeld Gaudet Torio Rod Kerlikowske Song Lundqvist Reeves Krebs Li Feigelson Manjer van den Brandt Sonnenschein Galanis Kaaks Tulinius Tornberg De Stavola Vatten Subtotal (I-squared = 73.6%, p = 0.000) Author 2015 2014 2014 2014 2013 2012 2011 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 2001 2000 1999 1998 1998 1997 1994 1993 1992 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2010 2010 2009 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 2004 2001 2000 1999 1998 1998 1997 1994 1993 1990 Year 0.97 (0.91, 1.03) 0.89 (0.87, 0.91) 1.01 (0.87, 1.17) 1.22 (1.00, 1.47) 0.93 (0.80, 1.08) 1.30 (1.03, 1.62) 0.78 (0.49, 1.24) 0.95 (0.84, 1.08) 0.93 (0.86, 1.00) 0.95 (0.81, 1.13) 1.04 (0.77, 1.42) 0.70 (0.46, 1.08) 0.96 (0.90, 1.03) 0.90 (0.82, 1.00) 0.82 (0.72, 0.93) 1.01 (0.74, 1.37) 0.86 (0.77, 0.96) 0.87 (0.65, 1.19) 1.25 (0.91, 1.71) 0.97 (0.74, 1.26) 1.05 (0.84, 1.31) 0.69 (0.56, 0.84) 1.02 (0.66, 1.59) 0.86 (0.78, 0.95) 0.93 (0.90, 0.97) 1.05 (1.00, 1.11) 1.13 (1.10, 1.16) 1.05 (1.03, 1.07) 1.13 (1.00, 1.29) 1.05 (1.00, 1.11) 1.42 (0.98, 2.07) 1.16 (1.09, 1.25) 1.19 (1.07, 1.33) 1.28 (1.16, 1.40) 1.11 (0.90, 1.37) 1.12 (1.03, 1.21) 1.06 (0.96, 1.17) 1.05 (0.94, 1.18) 1.06 (0.98, 1.16) 1.12 (1.03, 1.22) 1.09 (1.06, 1.12) 0.93 (0.73, 1.19) 1.10 (0.95, 1.34) 1.13 (0.96, 1.33) 1.09 (1.06, 1.12) 1.40 (1.28, 1.61) 1.16 (1.05, 1.28) 1.18 (1.15, 1.22) 1.14 (0.98, 1.32) 1.71 (1.26, 2.34) 1.12 (1.07, 1.18) 0.94 (0.74, 1.19) 1.09 (1.03, 1.14) 1.56 (1.21, 2.01) 1.23 (1.03, 1.47) 0.90 (0.63, 1.28) 1.12 (0.99, 1.26) 1.13 (1.02, 1.26) 0.95 (0.61, 1.47) 0.90 (0.68, 1.18) 1.12 (1.09, 1.15) kg/m 2 RR (95% CI) per 5 8.68 10.90 4.37 3.18 4.34 2.52 0.71 5.36 7.96 3.84 1.49 0.82 8.65 6.60 5.25 1.49 6.04 1.53 1.41 1.96 2.55 2.91 0.78 6.66 100.00 4.85 5.86 6.15 2.17 5.03 0.37 4.12 2.70 3.12 1.06 3.64 3.01 2.69 3.54 3.50 5.80 0.81 1.47 1.60 5.74 2.50 3.06 5.64 1.82 0.53 4.90 0.85 4.79 0.78 1.36 0.42 2.41 2.76 0.28 0.65 100.00 Weight % AMBER Consortium CPRD CSDLH Eight Japanese cohorts WLHS P-1 HEBON Sweden,Finland Co-twin study,1975 MWS VMC SWHS NSHDC NHS II EPIC WLHS, Sweden and Norway MPP Pooling Project NYUWHS Hawaii State Department of Health, 1975 DOM-project Utrecht Reykjavik Study, 1968 Sweden, 1971 Guernsey G2 and G3 Norway, 1974 AMBER Consortium WHI CPRD CSDLH EPIC-PANACEA Northern China 2006-2011 Norwegian Nord-Trondelag Health Study Swedish National Diabetes Register Cohort Study Eight Japanese cohorts WLHS MCCS P-1 and STAR NSHDC VITAL MEC Four NCI cohorts Columbia, MO cohort CLUE II CCHS BCSC KNHIC Sweden,Finland Co-twin study,1975 MWS SOF SWHS CPS II MPP Pooling Project NYUWHS Hawaii State Department of Health, 1975 DOM-project Utrecht Reykjavik Study, 1968 Sweden, 1971 Guernsey G2 and G3 Norway National Health Screening Service, 1974 Description Study 0.97 (0.91, 1.03) 0.89 (0.87, 0.91) 1.01 (0.87, 1.17) 1.22 (1.00, 1.47) 0.93 (0.80, 1.08) 1.30 (1.03, 1.62) 0.78 (0.49, 1.24) 0.95 (0.84, 1.08) 0.93 (0.86, 1.00) 0.95 (0.81, 1.13) 1.04 (0.77, 1.42) 0.70 (0.46, 1.08) 0.96 (0.90, 1.03) 0.90 (0.82, 1.00) 0.82 (0.72, 0.93) 1.01 (0.74, 1.37) 0.86 (0.77, 0.96) 0.87 (0.65, 1.19) 1.25 (0.91, 1.71) 0.97 (0.74, 1.26) 1.05 (0.84, 1.31) 0.69 (0.56, 0.84) 1.02 (0.66, 1.59) 0.86 (0.78, 0.95) 0.93 (0.90, 0.97) 1.05 (1.00, 1.11) 1.13 (1.10, 1.16) 1.05 (1.03, 1.07) 1.13 (1.00, 1.29) 1.05 (1.00, 1.11) 1.42 (0.98, 2.07) 1.16 (1.09, 1.25) 1.19 (1.07, 1.33) 1.28 (1.16, 1.40) 1.11 (0.90, 1.37) 1.12 (1.03, 1.21) 1.06 (0.96, 1.17) 1.05 (0.94, 1.18) 1.06 (0.98, 1.16) 1.12 (1.03, 1.22) 1.09 (1.06, 1.12) 0.93 (0.73, 1.19) 1.10 (0.95, 1.34) 1.13 (0.96, 1.33) 1.09 (1.06, 1.12) 1.40 (1.28, 1.61) 1.16 (1.05, 1.28) 1.18 (1.15, 1.22) 1.14 (0.98, 1.32) 1.71 (1.26, 2.34) 1.12 (1.07, 1.18) 0.94 (0.74, 1.19) 1.09 (1.03, 1.14) 1.56 (1.21, 2.01) 1.23 (1.03, 1.47) 0.90 (0.63, 1.28) 1.12 (0.99, 1.26) 1.13 (1.02, 1.26) 0.95 (0.61, 1.47) 0.90 (0.68, 1.18) 1.12 (1.09, 1.15) kg/m 2 RR (95% CI) per 5 8.68 10.90 4.37 3.18 4.34 2.52 0.71 5.36 7.96 3.84 1.49 0.82 8.65 6.60 5.25 1.49 6.04 1.53 1.41 1.96 2.55 2.91 0.78 6.66 100.00 4.85 5.86 6.15 2.17 5.03 0.37 4.12 2.70 3.12 1.06 3.64 3.01 2.69 3.54 3.50 5.80 0.81 1.47 1.60 5.74 2.50 3.06 5.64 1.82 0.53 4.90 0.85 4.79 0.78 1.36 0.42 2.41 2.76 0.28 0.65 100.00 Weight % 1.45 1 2.2 Premenopausal breast cancer Per 5 kg/m2 SRR: 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.97) Postmenopausal breast cancer SRR: 1.12 (95% CI: 1.09-1.15)
  • 5. Summary RRs per 5 kg/m2 BMI and postmenopausal breast cancer by menopausal hormone therapy use Never users Never/former users Current users Ever users MHT 1.16 (1.10, 1.23) 1.20 (1.15, 1.25) 0.98 (0.90, 1.06) 1.01 (0.96, 1.06) RR (95% CI) 15 4 5 13 Studies 10487 3369 3940 3004 Cases 72% 0% 69% 0% I 2 1.16 (1.10, 1.23) 1.20 (1.15, 1.25) 0.98 (0.90, 1.06) 1.01 (0.96, 1.06) RR (95% CI) 15 4 5 13 Studies 1.88 1 1.25
  • 6. Summary RRs per 5 kg/m2 BMI and postmenopausal breast cancer by hormone receptor status ER-positive ER-negative PR-positive PR-negative Subtype 1.17 (1.09, 1.25) 1.00 (0.95, 1.06) 1.47 (1.36, 1.60) 1.05 (0.93, 1.18) RR (95% CI) 14 13 5 5 Studies 9587 2180 1314 654 Cases 91% 7% 0% 0% I 2 1.17 (1.09, 1.25) 1.00 (0.95, 1.06) 1.47 (1.36, 1.60) 1.05 (0.93, 1.18) RR (95% CI) 14 13 5 5 Studies 1.625 1 1.6
  • 7. Waist circumference and premenopausal breast cancer risk Studies not adjusted for BMI Per 10 cm SRR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95-1.04) Studies adjusted for BMI SRR: 1.14 (95% CI: 1.04-1.26) NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis . . BMI not adjusted Catsburg Harris Palmer Lahmann Huang Kaaks Subtotal (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.904) BMI adjusted Harris Lahmann Huang Subtotal (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.853) Author 2014 2011 2007 2004 1999 1998 2011 2004 1999 Year 1.01 (0.89, 1.14) 0.97 (0.88, 1.07) 1.03 (0.95, 1.12) 0.97 (0.86, 1.09) 0.99 (0.86, 1.15) 0.93 (0.76, 1.13) 0.99 (0.95, 1.04) 1.14 (1.00, 1.29) 1.10 (0.91, 1.35) 1.20 (0.97, 1.47) 1.14 (1.04, 1.26) cm (95% CI) RR per 10 15.34 21.75 30.44 16.09 10.79 5.59 100.00 55.57 23.17 21.26 100.00 Weight % CSDLH NHS II BWHS EPIC NHS DOM-project NHS II EPIC NHS Description Study 1.01 (0.89, 1.14) 0.97 (0.88, 1.07) 1.03 (0.95, 1.12) 0.97 (0.86, 1.09) 0.99 (0.86, 1.15) 0.93 (0.76, 1.13) 0.99 (0.95, 1.04) 1.14 (1.00, 1.29) 1.10 (0.91, 1.35) 1.20 (0.97, 1.47) 1.14 (1.04, 1.26) cm (95% CI) RR per 10 15.34 21.75 30.44 16.09 10.79 5.59 100.00 55.57 23.17 21.26 100.00 Weight % 1.75 1 1.5
  • 8. Waist circumference and postmenopausal breast cancer risk Studies not adjusted for BMI Per 10 cm SRR: 1.11 (95% CI: 1.09-1.13) Studies adjusted for BMI SRR: 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.12) NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis . . BMI not adjusted Kabat Catsburg Gaudet Ahn Palmer Krebs Rinaldi MacInnis Folsom Huang Kaaks Subtotal (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.590) BMI adjusted Kabat Gaudet Lahmann Sellers Huang Subtotal (I-squared = 72.0%, p = 0.006) Author 2015 2014 2014 2007 2007 2006 2006 2004 2000 1999 1998 2015 2014 2004 2002 1999 Year 1.11 (1.08, 1.13) 1.08 (0.97, 1.20) 1.13 (1.08, 1.19) 1.09 (1.04, 1.14) 1.02 (0.93, 1.11) 1.14 (1.02, 1.28) 1.12 (1.02, 1.23) 1.13 (1.03, 1.24) 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) 1.10 (1.03, 1.18) 1.25 (0.90, 1.73) 1.11 (1.09, 1.13) 1.11 (1.09, 1.14) 1.00 (0.92, 1.08) 1.09 (1.00, 1.20) 1.02 (0.96, 1.07) 1.09 (0.98, 1.20) 1.06 (1.01, 1.12) cm (95% CI) RR per 10 47.69 2.21 11.24 12.10 3.27 1.95 2.77 3.07 10.18 5.29 0.25 100.00 29.21 17.77 15.40 23.22 14.40 100.00 Weight % WHI-CT and OS CSDLH CPS II NIH-AARP BWHS SOF EPIC MCCS IWHS NHS DOM-project WHI-CT and OS CPS II EPIC IWHS NHS Description Study 1.11 (1.08, 1.13) 1.08 (0.97, 1.20) 1.13 (1.08, 1.19) 1.09 (1.04, 1.14) 1.02 (0.93, 1.11) 1.14 (1.02, 1.28) 1.12 (1.02, 1.23) 1.13 (1.03, 1.24) 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) 1.10 (1.03, 1.18) 1.25 (0.90, 1.73) 1.11 (1.09, 1.13) 1.11 (1.09, 1.14) 1.00 (0.92, 1.08) 1.09 (1.00, 1.20) 1.02 (0.96, 1.07) 1.09 (0.98, 1.20) 1.06 (1.01, 1.12) cm (95% CI) RR per 10 47.69 2.21 11.24 12.10 3.27 1.95 2.77 3.07 10.18 5.29 0.25 100.00 29.21 17.77 15.40 23.22 14.40 100.00 Weight % 1.75 1 1.5
  • 9. Early adult BMI and pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis . . Premenopausal breast cancer Bandera Catsburg Manders Suzuki Burton Li Michels Weiderpass London Subtotal (I-squared = 14.9%, p = 0.310) Postmenopausal breast cancer Bandera Catsburg Han Krishnan White Suzuki Burton Kawai Torio Li Morimoto Sellers van den Brandt London Subtotal (I-squared = 43.5%, p = 0.042) Author 2015 2014 2011 2011 2010 2006 2006 2004 1989 2015 2014 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2010 2010 2006 2002 2002 1997 1989 Year 0.87 (0.75, 1.01) 0.86 (0.61, 1.21) 0.61 (0.31, 1.21) 0.78 (0.57, 1.06) 1.28 (0.62, 2.59) 0.90 (0.59, 1.38) 0.83 (0.74, 0.94) 0.90 (0.77, 1.10) 0.68 (0.58, 0.80) 0.82 (0.76, 0.89) 0.88 (0.75, 1.03) 0.89 (0.62, 1.29) 0.90 (0.73, 1.11) 0.90 (0.79, 1.04) 0.88 (0.82, 0.95) 0.77 (0.59, 1.02) 0.86 (0.53, 1.47) 0.44 (0.25, 0.77) 0.90 (0.70, 1.22) 0.76 (0.50, 1.17) 0.75 (0.62, 0.91) 0.67 (0.59, 0.76) 0.86 (0.71, 1.05) 0.79 (0.63, 0.99) 0.82 (0.76, 0.88) kg/m 2 (95% CI) RR per 5 20.42 4.92 1.34 6.06 1.23 3.40 28.01 15.88 18.74 100.00 10.12 3.20 7.52 11.58 16.44 5.17 1.81 1.52 5.01 2.47 8.14 12.15 8.17 6.69 100.00 Weight % AMBER Consortium CSDLH HEBON JPHC I and II Glasgow Alumni Cohort study SWHS NHS II WLHCS NHS AMBER Consortium CSDLH ARIC MCCS MEC JPHC I and II Glasgow Alumni Cohort study MCS CLUE II SWHS WHI-OS IWHS NLCS NHS Description Study 0.87 (0.75, 1.01) 0.86 (0.61, 1.21) 0.61 (0.31, 1.21) 0.78 (0.57, 1.06) 1.28 (0.62, 2.59) 0.90 (0.59, 1.38) 0.83 (0.74, 0.94) 0.90 (0.77, 1.10) 0.68 (0.58, 0.80) 0.82 (0.76, 0.89) 0.88 (0.75, 1.03) 0.89 (0.62, 1.29) 0.90 (0.73, 1.11) 0.90 (0.79, 1.04) 0.88 (0.82, 0.95) 0.77 (0.59, 1.02) 0.86 (0.53, 1.47) 0.44 (0.25, 0.77) 0.90 (0.70, 1.22) 0.76 (0.50, 1.17) 0.75 (0.62, 0.91) 0.67 (0.59, 0.76) 0.86 (0.71, 1.05) 0.79 (0.63, 0.99) 0.82 (0.76, 0.88) kg/m 2 (95% CI) RR per 5 20.42 4.92 1.34 6.06 1.23 3.40 28.01 15.88 18.74 100.00 10.12 3.20 7.52 11.58 16.44 5.17 1.81 1.52 5.01 2.47 8.14 12.15 8.17 6.69 100.00 Weight % 1.45 1 2.5 Premenopausal breast cancer Per 5 kg/m2 SRR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76-0.89) Postmenopausal breast cancer SRR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76-0.88)
  • 10. Adult weight gain and pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk Premenopausal breast cancer SRR per 5 kg increase: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96-1.03) Postmenopausal breast cancer SRR: 1.06 (95% CI: 1.05-1.08) NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis . . Premenopausal Catsburg Michels Manders Palmer Li Lahmann Breslow Subtotal (I-squared = 12.7%, p = 0.333) Postmenopausal Zhang Catsburg Alsaker Krishnan White Kawai Ahn Palmer Li Lahmann Feigelson Radimer Breslow van den Brandt Folsom Subtotal (I-squared = 37.5%, p = 0.071) Author 2014 2012 2011 2007 2006 2005 2001 2015 2014 2013 2013 2012 2010 2007 2007 2006 2005 2004 2004 2001 1997 1990 Year 1.01 (0.93, 1.09) 0.96 (0.92, 1.00) 0.94 (0.78, 1.15) 1.02 (0.97, 1.08) 1.01 (0.90, 1.13) 0.99 (0.89, 1.08) 1.18 (0.97, 1.45) 0.99 (0.96, 1.03) 1.06 (1.05, 1.08) 1.06 (1.01, 1.11) 1.10 (1.03, 1.18) 1.06 (1.03, 1.10) 1.07 (1.05, 1.08) 1.26 (1.00, 1.59) 1.05 (1.03, 1.07) 1.00 (0.94, 1.07) 1.26 (1.13, 1.40) 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) 1.07 (1.04, 1.09) 1.12 (1.01, 1.24) 1.14 (0.99, 1.30) 1.05 (0.98, 1.13) 1.14 (1.03, 1.25) 1.06 (1.05, 1.08) RR (95% CI) Weight gain 13.43 38.66 2.60 25.66 6.98 10.22 2.45 100.00 18.66 5.25 2.94 8.84 18.66 0.27 15.76 3.45 1.18 5.59 12.94 1.35 0.80 2.82 1.47 100.00 Weight % CSDLH NHS and NHS II HEBON BWHS SWHS EPIC NHEFS NHS CSDLH HUNT2 MCCS MEC MCS NIH-AARP BWHS SWHS EPIC CPS-II Nutrition Cohort FHS NHEFS NLCS IWHS Description Study 1.01 (0.93, 1.09) 0.96 (0.92, 1.00) 0.94 (0.78, 1.15) 1.02 (0.97, 1.08) 1.01 (0.90, 1.13) 0.99 (0.89, 1.08) 1.18 (0.97, 1.45) 0.99 (0.96, 1.03) 1.06 (1.05, 1.08) 1.06 (1.01, 1.11) 1.10 (1.03, 1.18) 1.06 (1.03, 1.10) 1.07 (1.05, 1.08) 1.26 (1.00, 1.59) 1.05 (1.03, 1.07) 1.00 (0.94, 1.07) 1.26 (1.13, 1.40) 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) 1.07 (1.04, 1.09) 1.12 (1.01, 1.24) 1.14 (0.99, 1.30) 1.05 (0.98, 1.13) 1.14 (1.03, 1.25) 1.06 (1.05, 1.08) RR (95% CI) Weight gain 13.43 38.66 2.60 25.66 6.98 10.22 2.45 100.00 18.66 5.25 2.94 8.84 18.66 0.27 15.76 3.45 1.18 5.59 12.94 1.35 0.80 2.82 1.47 100.00 Weight % 1.7 1 1.43
  • 11. Physical activity and pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk – dose-response meta-analysis Exposure Premenopausal breast cancer Postmenopausal breast cancer Physical activity RR (95% CI), I square (%) Number of studies/cases Recreational Per 10 MET- hour/week 0.96 (0.90-1.03), 69% 3 studies, 2 331 cases 0.98 (0.97-0.99), 0% 5 studies, 18 486 cases Vigorous Per 30 minute/day 0.91 (0.83-1.01), 0% 3 studies, 1 473 cases 0.94 (0.86-1.02), 0% 3 studies, 3 293 cases Summary RRs per increment unit of physical activity
  • 12. Summary • Greater abdominal obesity increases risk of pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer • Weight gain and general obesity are more relevant after menopause • Early adult obesity and physical activity are inversely associated with pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer • Higher body fatness increases the risk of ER/PR+ breast cancers and not ER/PR- breast cancers • Menopausal hormone therapy use masks the association of body fatness with breast cancer risk
  • 13. Epidemiologic evidence – energy balance-related factors and pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk Thank you Acknowledgements WCRF International CUP Principal Investigator: Dr Teresa Norat CUP teammates (past and present): Leila Abar, Dagfinn Aune, Rosa Lau Elli Polemiti, Deborah Navarro Rosenblatt, Christophe Stevens, Ana Rita Vieire, Rui Vieira Snieguole Vingeliene http://www.wcrf.org/int/research-we-fund/continuous-update-project-cup