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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
05 April 2016
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1
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Hotline: +91 731 664 2300
Alternate: +91 731 664 2320
Or give us a missed call at
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Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
APR 8120 8420 8100 8348 +3.04 11310
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8159
SUPP. 2
7969
PIVOT
8289
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8479
RES. 2
8609
CORIANDER
APR 7085 7384 7085 7384 +4.00 4730
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7185
SUPP. 2
6985
PIVOT
7285
Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7484
RES. 2
7584
GUARGUM
APR 5440 5600 5440 5510 +1.85 8259
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5433
SUPP. 2
5357
PIVOT
5517
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5593
RES. 2
5677
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 4614 4522 +2.03
CORIANDER 7085 7073 +0.17
GUARGUM 5380 5410 -0.55
JEERA 15495 15565 -0.45
MUSTARD
SEED
4200 4157 +1.03
SOYABEAN 4119 4010 +2.72
TURMERIC 8096 8110 -0.17
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
SUGAR M GRADE 20-05-2016 3543.00 -100.00 -2.74%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CHANA 20-04-2016 4788.00 288.00 6.40%
CORIANDER 20-04-2016 7384.00 334.00 4.74%
REF SOYA OIL 20-04-2016 653.60 18.70 2.95%
TURMERIC 20-04-2016 8348.00 238.00 2.93%
WHEAT 20-04-2016 1580.00 14.00 0.89%
BARLEY 20-04-2016 1532.00 9.00 0.59%
Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Private firm Weather Risk Management Services has said that India will
receive normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season,
welcome news in a country where as much as 60% of the farmland is rain-
fed.The forecast from the government's India Meteorological department (
IMD) is expected by the last week of April. Local authorities use IMD's
prediction to decide on their monsoon preparations."The 2016 monsoon
rains will be normal and well distributed. The models are indicating above
average rainfall from June to September," said Kanti Prasad, head-
meteorology at Gurgaon headquartered Weather Risk Management
Services.Monsoon rainfall was deficit in 2015-16 and 2014-15 at 14% and
12% respectively.However, Prasad said that there may be some areas in
northeast India, Maharashtra and Rajasthan where overall rainfall activity
may be somewhat on the negative side of the normal during monsoon."In
the four-month rainy season, rains in June are expected to be the maximum,
thereby reducing over the next three months," said Prasad.The
meteorologist said that most global models indicated continued weakening
of El Nino conditions over the coming months, returning to normal by late
spring or early summer 2016 and a chance of La Nina development by fall.
"These signals are favourable for above normal monsoon rainfall over the
country during June to September, 2016," he said.Sonu Agrawal, managing
director of Weather Risk Management Services, said that the firm will
update its monsoon forecast fortnightly.Information and forecasts of
weather are largely sought by clients in aviation, energy, insurance,
banking, agriculture and trading, apart from logistics, chemicals and
commodity companies. Weather Risk Management Services has clients
from Pepsico, Bayer, Syngenta, Mother Dairy, Multi Commodity
Exchange and Reliance infra-backed BSES power distribution company,
among others.Presenting its long-range weather forecast on April 1 in
Delhi, the company said it processed data from the American scientific
agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to come to this
conclusion.
Sugar Futures closed higher in weekly basis but traded down on
Friday on profit bookings. Sugar May futures closed lower by 2.70% to
settle at Rs. 3,538 per quintal. However, spot prices at Vashi increased
by 1.67% on good physical demand. Sugar production as on March 31
is 4.43% lower than the sugar production during corresponding period
of previous year as per ISMA data release. All India sugar production
is 237 lt, up to March 31, 2016, which is about 11 lt less than last
year.India is expected to produce 25.64 mt of sugar lower from 26 mt
forecasted last month in 2015-16 marketing year against 28.3 mt in the
previous year on deficient rains. On the export front, Indian millers
have so far, contracted about 14 lt of sugar for exports and likely to see
over 80% jump to 20 lt in 2015-16 marketing year.We expect sugar to
trade sideways to lower due to selling pressure at higher levels.
However, expectation of good summer demand coupled with lower
output and good exports may keep price stable.
Chana futures continue its increasing trend, as demand surpasses
arrivals due to increased procurement by government. Chana futures
for April delivery closed higher by 5.02% on weekly basis to settle at
Rs 4,604 per quintal. Market participants are expecting good spot
demand in coming months, as arrivals have been steady across country.
Moreover, Govt. has also started to procure directly from farmers to
create buffer stock for pulses including chana.Imported chana has also
hit the markets this month and traders & stockists are buying up to their
respective stock limits for the new season crop. India has imported 5.79
lt of Chana until December in the current financial year. In December,
country imported over 2 lt of chana which is a record. In the second
advance estimate for 2015-16, government forecasted 8.09 mt of chana
this year, which is more than production estimated last year (7.17 mt).
According to IMD, fresh spell of rain may lash North-West this week
due to western disturbances but still no traces of rains in Rajasthan.
5
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
All India average prices of Castor seed decreased by 0.53 % to Rs 3000.64
per qtl week on week basis. It was being traded at Rs 3016.72 per qtl. during
the week ended 23rd March-2016.Weak buying interest by plants, stockiest at
current price and subdued import demand have restricted cash market from
getting firmer. Mostly markets remained closed in the last week of March.
Profit booking at higher level in Rajkot commodity exchange pressurized
seed in cash and RCX and weak tone likely to continue in the first week of
April. Higher arrivals are expected in April as markets remained closed last
week due to March Closing. Mostly active traders remained active to settle
their accounts. Oil demand was seen lower as importers have covered their
immediate needs.
India exports 11614.20 T castor Oil during the week ended 20th March at an
average price of $1095.61 per T. China ,Thailand and US were the major
buyers last week. The flow of export would continue as importers are taking
advantage of lower price and they are stocking castor oil. Higher export
volume indicates that if prices firms up in coming months ,they may restrict
buying oil.
Agricultural Statistics Division, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, India
has revised its Second Adv estimate for foodgrains and estimated 17.27 lakh
tonne castor seed production for 2015-16 crop year,to be marketed in MY
2016-17.The production target for the year had been fixed at 20.34lakh tonne.
India had produced 18.70 lakh tonne castor seed last year as per final estimate
by DES..Against this private estimates hinges in the range of 14 to 15 lakh
tonne for this year.
CENTER 04-Apr-15 02-Apr-15 Change
SUMERPUR 3000 3000 Unch
PATAN 3000 3050 -50
MEHSANA 3025 Closed -
BHABAR 3025 NR +15
HARJI 3050 3050 UNCH
RAJKOT 3100 3055 +45
KADI NR 3500 -
Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 7390 TARGET 7435 7585 SL
BELOW 7325
SELL GUARGUM APRIL BELOW 5380 TARGET 5330 5260 SL
ABOVE 5440
SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8300 TARGET 8256 8196 SL
ABOVE 8360
Disclaimer
 The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any
responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.
 Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and
up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility.
 The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide
individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments
and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any
transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.
 The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all
estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the
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Epic research daily agri report 5th april 2016

  • 1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 05 April 2016 HNI & NRI Sales Contact Australia Mintara Road, Tarneit, Victoria. Post Code 3029 Phone.: +61 422 063855 HNI & NRI Sales Contact USA 2117 Arbor Vista Dr. Charlotte (NC) Cell: +1 704 249 2315 Toll Free Number 1-800-200-9454 All queries should be directed to Info@epicresearch.co 1 Epic Research India 411 Milinda Manor (Suites 409- 417) 2 RNT Marg. Opp Central Mall Indore (M.P.) Hotline: +91 731 664 2300 Alternate: +91 731 664 2320 Or give us a missed call at 026 5309 0639 Our Presence YOURMINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
  • 2. Market Views 2 MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL TURMERIC APR 8120 8420 8100 8348 +3.04 11310 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 8159 SUPP. 2 7969 PIVOT 8289 Turmeric short term trend is bearish and May continue in coming days.RESISTAN CE RES. 1 8479 RES. 2 8609 CORIANDER APR 7085 7384 7085 7384 +4.00 4730 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP.1 7185 SUPP. 2 6985 PIVOT 7285 Coriander short term trend is bullish and May continue in coming days.RESISTAN CE RES. 1 7484 RES. 2 7584 GUARGUM APR 5440 5600 5440 5510 +1.85 8259 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 5433 SUPP. 2 5357 PIVOT 5517 Guargum short term trend is bearish and May continue in coming days.RESISTAN CE RES. 1 5593 RES. 2 5677 CASTORSEED - - - - - - - INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 - SUPP. 2 - PIVOT - - RESISTAN CE RES. 1 - RES. 2 -
  • 3. Most Active Contract 3 NCDEX INDICES Index Value Pre. Close % Change CASTORSEED - - - CHANA 4614 4522 +2.03 CORIANDER 7085 7073 +0.17 GUARGUM 5380 5410 -0.55 JEERA 15495 15565 -0.45 MUSTARD SEED 4200 4157 +1.03 SOYABEAN 4119 4010 +2.72 TURMERIC 8096 8110 -0.17 TOP LOSERS SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE CURRENT PRICE CHANGE CHANGE % SUGAR M GRADE 20-05-2016 3543.00 -100.00 -2.74% TOP GAINERS SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE CURRENT PRICE CHANGE CHANGE % CHANA 20-04-2016 4788.00 288.00 6.40% CORIANDER 20-04-2016 7384.00 334.00 4.74% REF SOYA OIL 20-04-2016 653.60 18.70 2.95% TURMERIC 20-04-2016 8348.00 238.00 2.93% WHEAT 20-04-2016 1580.00 14.00 0.89% BARLEY 20-04-2016 1532.00 9.00 0.59%
  • 4. Commodities In News 4 ECONOMIC NEWS Private firm Weather Risk Management Services has said that India will receive normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, welcome news in a country where as much as 60% of the farmland is rain- fed.The forecast from the government's India Meteorological department ( IMD) is expected by the last week of April. Local authorities use IMD's prediction to decide on their monsoon preparations."The 2016 monsoon rains will be normal and well distributed. The models are indicating above average rainfall from June to September," said Kanti Prasad, head- meteorology at Gurgaon headquartered Weather Risk Management Services.Monsoon rainfall was deficit in 2015-16 and 2014-15 at 14% and 12% respectively.However, Prasad said that there may be some areas in northeast India, Maharashtra and Rajasthan where overall rainfall activity may be somewhat on the negative side of the normal during monsoon."In the four-month rainy season, rains in June are expected to be the maximum, thereby reducing over the next three months," said Prasad.The meteorologist said that most global models indicated continued weakening of El Nino conditions over the coming months, returning to normal by late spring or early summer 2016 and a chance of La Nina development by fall. "These signals are favourable for above normal monsoon rainfall over the country during June to September, 2016," he said.Sonu Agrawal, managing director of Weather Risk Management Services, said that the firm will update its monsoon forecast fortnightly.Information and forecasts of weather are largely sought by clients in aviation, energy, insurance, banking, agriculture and trading, apart from logistics, chemicals and commodity companies. Weather Risk Management Services has clients from Pepsico, Bayer, Syngenta, Mother Dairy, Multi Commodity Exchange and Reliance infra-backed BSES power distribution company, among others.Presenting its long-range weather forecast on April 1 in Delhi, the company said it processed data from the American scientific agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to come to this conclusion. Sugar Futures closed higher in weekly basis but traded down on Friday on profit bookings. Sugar May futures closed lower by 2.70% to settle at Rs. 3,538 per quintal. However, spot prices at Vashi increased by 1.67% on good physical demand. Sugar production as on March 31 is 4.43% lower than the sugar production during corresponding period of previous year as per ISMA data release. All India sugar production is 237 lt, up to March 31, 2016, which is about 11 lt less than last year.India is expected to produce 25.64 mt of sugar lower from 26 mt forecasted last month in 2015-16 marketing year against 28.3 mt in the previous year on deficient rains. On the export front, Indian millers have so far, contracted about 14 lt of sugar for exports and likely to see over 80% jump to 20 lt in 2015-16 marketing year.We expect sugar to trade sideways to lower due to selling pressure at higher levels. However, expectation of good summer demand coupled with lower output and good exports may keep price stable. Chana futures continue its increasing trend, as demand surpasses arrivals due to increased procurement by government. Chana futures for April delivery closed higher by 5.02% on weekly basis to settle at Rs 4,604 per quintal. Market participants are expecting good spot demand in coming months, as arrivals have been steady across country. Moreover, Govt. has also started to procure directly from farmers to create buffer stock for pulses including chana.Imported chana has also hit the markets this month and traders & stockists are buying up to their respective stock limits for the new season crop. India has imported 5.79 lt of Chana until December in the current financial year. In December, country imported over 2 lt of chana which is a record. In the second advance estimate for 2015-16, government forecasted 8.09 mt of chana this year, which is more than production estimated last year (7.17 mt). According to IMD, fresh spell of rain may lash North-West this week due to western disturbances but still no traces of rains in Rajasthan.
  • 5. 5 Fundamental Watch : Castorseed CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET National Market Update All India average prices of Castor seed decreased by 0.53 % to Rs 3000.64 per qtl week on week basis. It was being traded at Rs 3016.72 per qtl. during the week ended 23rd March-2016.Weak buying interest by plants, stockiest at current price and subdued import demand have restricted cash market from getting firmer. Mostly markets remained closed in the last week of March. Profit booking at higher level in Rajkot commodity exchange pressurized seed in cash and RCX and weak tone likely to continue in the first week of April. Higher arrivals are expected in April as markets remained closed last week due to March Closing. Mostly active traders remained active to settle their accounts. Oil demand was seen lower as importers have covered their immediate needs. India exports 11614.20 T castor Oil during the week ended 20th March at an average price of $1095.61 per T. China ,Thailand and US were the major buyers last week. The flow of export would continue as importers are taking advantage of lower price and they are stocking castor oil. Higher export volume indicates that if prices firms up in coming months ,they may restrict buying oil. Agricultural Statistics Division, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, India has revised its Second Adv estimate for foodgrains and estimated 17.27 lakh tonne castor seed production for 2015-16 crop year,to be marketed in MY 2016-17.The production target for the year had been fixed at 20.34lakh tonne. India had produced 18.70 lakh tonne castor seed last year as per final estimate by DES..Against this private estimates hinges in the range of 14 to 15 lakh tonne for this year. CENTER 04-Apr-15 02-Apr-15 Change SUMERPUR 3000 3000 Unch PATAN 3000 3050 -50 MEHSANA 3025 Closed - BHABAR 3025 NR +15 HARJI 3050 3050 UNCH RAJKOT 3100 3055 +45 KADI NR 3500 -
  • 6. Technical Outlook 6 BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 7390 TARGET 7435 7585 SL BELOW 7325 SELL GUARGUM APRIL BELOW 5380 TARGET 5330 5260 SL ABOVE 5440 SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8300 TARGET 8256 8196 SL ABOVE 8360
  • 7. Disclaimer  The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.  Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility.  The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.  The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for. Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved.  Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.  We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.