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October 2014 
Epic Estimation – Agile or High Risk 
Guesswork? 
Ian Hawkins – Siemens Healthcare 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2013 All rights reserved. siemens.co.uk
Epic questions.... 
 How many people here have been involved in estimation of “epics” as part of 
project planning? 
 If the work took longer than originally estimated put your hands down. 
This talk explores when your Agile project can cope with this uncertainty in 
estimation, and when it will kill it. 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 2
First of two simple “mini project” games 
1) Pair numbers, by swapping tickets 
2) As a group get as many pairs as possible in 2 minutes 
3) When you have a pair stand up 
2T mim012i:ne03 u0utpe!s 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 3
Second “mini project” game 
1) Order tickets in ascending order (gaps allowed, swapping allowed) 
2) Connect everyone up in ascending order in 2 minutes 
3) Pass wool along to monitor route 
Start2Tmim012i:ne03 u0utpe!s 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 4
Difference between the two projects 
Project 1 - Independent work 
each adding value 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 5 
Project 2 – Single large 
requirement, all or nothing 
 Backlog composition matters – we will return to this later
Structure of talk 
 Business context 
 Review of one of our projects over 3 successive 
years 
 Lessons learned and Recommendations 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 6
Business Context - Siemens Globally 
Founded in 1847 
370,000 employees 
• First electric railway 
• First underground railway in continental Europe 
• First ultrasound 
• First cardiac pacemaker 
• First positron emission tomography (PET) scan 
• World’s brightest white light emitting diode 
• World’s most efficient gas turbine 
• World’s longest rotor blade 
• etc 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 7
Siemens Sectors and Divisions 
Healthcare Energy 
Divisions Divisions 
 Imaging & Therapy 
 Clinical Products 
 Diagnostics 
 Fossil Power Generation 
 Renewable Energy 
 Oil & Gas 
 Energy Service 
 Power Transmission & Distribution 
Industry Infrastructure & Cities 
Divisions 
 Drive Technologies 
 Industry Automation 
 Industry Solutions 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 8 
Divisions 
 Mobility 
 Building Technologies 
 Power Distribution
Molecular Imaging 
Use of tiny quantities of injected radioactive chemicals to observe live biological 
processes. 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 9
Business Context - Architecture 
Siemens Medical 
Imaging Platform 
Neurology Oncology Cardiology 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 10 
... 
Medical Imaging Applications
Software Development Context - Oncology 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 11 
Scrum 1 
Scrum 2 
Scrum 3 
Scrum 4 
Planning 
Formal QA 
(Regulated 
Environment)
Planning 
- Decision Gates 
 Key points where executives decide level of investment 
 Commitment to key features required for these meetings 
 Uncertainty is not typically discussed 
- Fixed dates, as many applications are shipping on common platform 
- Fixed resources 
Scope – “Commitment Expected” 
$$$ 
Schedule Fixed Resources Fixed 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 12 
Larger investments require greater 
expectation of commitments
Planning 
- Multiple constraints drive the need for “up front epic estimation” 
- So how has this worked in practice... 
- We will explore three releases of a project 2012, 2013, 2014 with a focus on the 
2013 project 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 13
Project 2012 
- Initial work estimated by architects 
- Teams estimated all work in story points (~2 weeks worth of estimation) 
- Relatively low number of issues on new features during development 
- Scope implemented achieved successfully 
Yes – we are all estimation super heroes! 
Hmmm – maybe…. 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 14
Project 2013 
- Initial work estimated by architects 
- More time spent on team estimates in story points (~6 weeks) 
- High profile feature - one really large chunk of work including lots of restructuring 
of codebase, divided into 3 requirements. Would not fit. Hmm. 
- Moved work between teams, reduced scope. More re-estimation. Still 
considered too big at 85% of team capacity. 
- Previous project went well, same team. Yes we can do it. 
Flagged with stakeholders as risk 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 15
Project 2013 ctd 
- Two iterations in. Velocity too low. Is that enough data to be significant? 
- Another iteration. Still too low. 
- Difficult meetings with stakeholders 
 Is there value in delivering two of the three requirements? No, all or nothing. 
 Can we back out the 3 months work ok and deliver in 2014 instead? 
Fortunately yes. 
 Feature extracted out for completion in 2014 project 
So what did we learn... ? 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 16
Lessons learned - change 
- There is significant increase in knowledge through a project 
- Changes in our project backlog included 
- 15% new requirements, 7% removed requirements after initial planning 
- Increase in number of backlog items by factor 5 due to elaboration, which 
reflects further grooming and understanding 
- 5000 updates to backlog item specifications 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 17
Lessons Learned – Project Uncertainty 
- Agile influences the “cone of uncertainty” but does not remove it 
Epic 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 18 
Alternate uncertainty curve
Lessons Learned – Making Major Adjustments 
- Agile provided fast feedback on progress  
- Ability to back out feature increased options for business 
- Allowed sensible re-planning rather than attempting the impossible  
- Painful for business. Handling schedule uncertainty as “risk” is insufficient  
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 19
Lessons Learned – Backlog Composition 
- Not all epics of size say 50 SP carry the same schedule risk 
“Delighters” “Essentials” 
De-scoping by removing delighters increases schedule risk. 
Architectural changes can often be the equivalent of 100% essential features. 
Prioritisation is also important, defer higher fidelity until later in project. 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 20 
 

Lessons Learned – Backlog Dependencies 
- Dependency impacts schedule risk 
“Independent” “Mutually dependent” 
- In “Project 2013” we completed 2 of the 3 features but still could not release. 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 21 
 

Lessons Learned – Project Control 
- Needed to handle project change - do your projects look like this? 
Requirements Added 
Feature Simplification 
Support for other 
projects 
Estimated 6 months Actual ~6 months 
- If you do not have flexibility in your backlog your are in Big Trouble and Agile 
won’t be able to help. 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 22 
Integration Issues 
Tradeshow 
support 
Staffing Changes 
Tooling 
changes
What is hard to estimate? – Six Thoughts 
- Why are some epics estimated less well than others? 
- Feedback from retrospective and input from 7 other scrum teams 
Concern Recommendation 
1 Epics with minimal break down 
and many story points 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 23 
Increase the amount of slicing 
2 Work in areas unfamiliar to team Invite an expert, explore code 
and tests 
3 Development in areas of lower 
quality code 
Allow for refactoring and TDD 
support
What is hard to estimate? – Six Thoughts 
Concern Recommendation 
4 Changes that impact lots of 
features 
Suggest you take the above and customise based on your own teams 
experiences. 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 24 
Allow more time for collaboration 
and issue fixing 
5 Features that are against the 
grain of the product 
Do a spike, talk to experts 
6 Unstable requirements Identify all stakeholders. Initial 
changes can be a sign of later 
changes.
Project 2014 
- So what happened with the epic deferred to 2014? 
 Added further experienced staff early on to reduce risk 
 Carried out tight project control 
 Maintained quality (TDD, Stop the line etc) 
 Reached “scope implemented” on schedule 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 25
Recommendations – In Priority Order 
1. Consider shorter release cycles (as advocated by “Lean”) 
 Reduces cost of estimation 
 Reduces risk for all stakeholders 
 Gets value to customers faster 
$$$ 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 26 
$ $ $ 
Value 
Delivered 
Value 
Delivered 
Value 
Delivered
Recommendations 
2. Enable Project Control - Epic by Epic 
- Compare each epic with historical data to get a base size estimate 
- Decide on level of uncertainty/contingency considering 
 Historical variation or industry standard variation for phase of project 
 Number of matches on your “hard to estimate” list 
 Options for varying fidelity 
- Do not negotiate the uncertainty or assume you will be lucky... 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 27 
Line in the sand
Recommendations 
2. Enable Project Control – Across All Epics 
- Check composition of your backlog as well as its size. 
One Large Epic, Squeezed In, No Optional Stories 
Epic 1 Epic 2 Epic 3 Epic 4 Epic 5 Epic 6  
“Agile works, when you have flexibility in scope” 
- Actively discuss uncertainty with management during project planning 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 28 

Recommendations 
3) Ensure you have a viable pre-agreed fall-back option 
4) Get superhero costume? 
Perhaps Not… 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 29
Resources / Further Reading 
Interesting recent studies on 
software estimation 
Professor Magne Jørgensen 
Thanks – Any Questions? 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 30 
http://code.google.com/p/gource/ 
Still very relevant… 
Comments/ideas welcomed - ian.hawkins@siemens.com
Resources 
Interesting recent studies on 
software estimation 
Professor Magne Jørgensen 
Thanks – Any Questions? 
Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. 
Page 31 
http://code.google.com/p/gource/ 
Still very relevant… 
Comments/ideas welcomed - ian.hawkins@siemens.com

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Epic Estimation - Agile or High Risk Guesswork

  • 1. October 2014 Epic Estimation – Agile or High Risk Guesswork? Ian Hawkins – Siemens Healthcare Unrestricted © Siemens 2013 All rights reserved. siemens.co.uk
  • 2. Epic questions....  How many people here have been involved in estimation of “epics” as part of project planning?  If the work took longer than originally estimated put your hands down. This talk explores when your Agile project can cope with this uncertainty in estimation, and when it will kill it. Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 2
  • 3. First of two simple “mini project” games 1) Pair numbers, by swapping tickets 2) As a group get as many pairs as possible in 2 minutes 3) When you have a pair stand up 2T mim012i:ne03 u0utpe!s Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 3
  • 4. Second “mini project” game 1) Order tickets in ascending order (gaps allowed, swapping allowed) 2) Connect everyone up in ascending order in 2 minutes 3) Pass wool along to monitor route Start2Tmim012i:ne03 u0utpe!s Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 4
  • 5. Difference between the two projects Project 1 - Independent work each adding value Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 5 Project 2 – Single large requirement, all or nothing  Backlog composition matters – we will return to this later
  • 6. Structure of talk  Business context  Review of one of our projects over 3 successive years  Lessons learned and Recommendations Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 6
  • 7. Business Context - Siemens Globally Founded in 1847 370,000 employees • First electric railway • First underground railway in continental Europe • First ultrasound • First cardiac pacemaker • First positron emission tomography (PET) scan • World’s brightest white light emitting diode • World’s most efficient gas turbine • World’s longest rotor blade • etc Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 7
  • 8. Siemens Sectors and Divisions Healthcare Energy Divisions Divisions  Imaging & Therapy  Clinical Products  Diagnostics  Fossil Power Generation  Renewable Energy  Oil & Gas  Energy Service  Power Transmission & Distribution Industry Infrastructure & Cities Divisions  Drive Technologies  Industry Automation  Industry Solutions Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 8 Divisions  Mobility  Building Technologies  Power Distribution
  • 9. Molecular Imaging Use of tiny quantities of injected radioactive chemicals to observe live biological processes. Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 9
  • 10. Business Context - Architecture Siemens Medical Imaging Platform Neurology Oncology Cardiology Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 10 ... Medical Imaging Applications
  • 11. Software Development Context - Oncology Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 11 Scrum 1 Scrum 2 Scrum 3 Scrum 4 Planning Formal QA (Regulated Environment)
  • 12. Planning - Decision Gates  Key points where executives decide level of investment  Commitment to key features required for these meetings  Uncertainty is not typically discussed - Fixed dates, as many applications are shipping on common platform - Fixed resources Scope – “Commitment Expected” $$$ Schedule Fixed Resources Fixed Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 12 Larger investments require greater expectation of commitments
  • 13. Planning - Multiple constraints drive the need for “up front epic estimation” - So how has this worked in practice... - We will explore three releases of a project 2012, 2013, 2014 with a focus on the 2013 project Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 13
  • 14. Project 2012 - Initial work estimated by architects - Teams estimated all work in story points (~2 weeks worth of estimation) - Relatively low number of issues on new features during development - Scope implemented achieved successfully Yes – we are all estimation super heroes! Hmmm – maybe…. Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 14
  • 15. Project 2013 - Initial work estimated by architects - More time spent on team estimates in story points (~6 weeks) - High profile feature - one really large chunk of work including lots of restructuring of codebase, divided into 3 requirements. Would not fit. Hmm. - Moved work between teams, reduced scope. More re-estimation. Still considered too big at 85% of team capacity. - Previous project went well, same team. Yes we can do it. Flagged with stakeholders as risk Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 15
  • 16. Project 2013 ctd - Two iterations in. Velocity too low. Is that enough data to be significant? - Another iteration. Still too low. - Difficult meetings with stakeholders  Is there value in delivering two of the three requirements? No, all or nothing.  Can we back out the 3 months work ok and deliver in 2014 instead? Fortunately yes.  Feature extracted out for completion in 2014 project So what did we learn... ? Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 16
  • 17. Lessons learned - change - There is significant increase in knowledge through a project - Changes in our project backlog included - 15% new requirements, 7% removed requirements after initial planning - Increase in number of backlog items by factor 5 due to elaboration, which reflects further grooming and understanding - 5000 updates to backlog item specifications Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 17
  • 18. Lessons Learned – Project Uncertainty - Agile influences the “cone of uncertainty” but does not remove it Epic Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 18 Alternate uncertainty curve
  • 19. Lessons Learned – Making Major Adjustments - Agile provided fast feedback on progress  - Ability to back out feature increased options for business - Allowed sensible re-planning rather than attempting the impossible  - Painful for business. Handling schedule uncertainty as “risk” is insufficient  Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 19
  • 20. Lessons Learned – Backlog Composition - Not all epics of size say 50 SP carry the same schedule risk “Delighters” “Essentials” De-scoping by removing delighters increases schedule risk. Architectural changes can often be the equivalent of 100% essential features. Prioritisation is also important, defer higher fidelity until later in project. Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 20  
  • 21. Lessons Learned – Backlog Dependencies - Dependency impacts schedule risk “Independent” “Mutually dependent” - In “Project 2013” we completed 2 of the 3 features but still could not release. Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 21  
  • 22. Lessons Learned – Project Control - Needed to handle project change - do your projects look like this? Requirements Added Feature Simplification Support for other projects Estimated 6 months Actual ~6 months - If you do not have flexibility in your backlog your are in Big Trouble and Agile won’t be able to help. Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 22 Integration Issues Tradeshow support Staffing Changes Tooling changes
  • 23. What is hard to estimate? – Six Thoughts - Why are some epics estimated less well than others? - Feedback from retrospective and input from 7 other scrum teams Concern Recommendation 1 Epics with minimal break down and many story points Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 23 Increase the amount of slicing 2 Work in areas unfamiliar to team Invite an expert, explore code and tests 3 Development in areas of lower quality code Allow for refactoring and TDD support
  • 24. What is hard to estimate? – Six Thoughts Concern Recommendation 4 Changes that impact lots of features Suggest you take the above and customise based on your own teams experiences. Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 24 Allow more time for collaboration and issue fixing 5 Features that are against the grain of the product Do a spike, talk to experts 6 Unstable requirements Identify all stakeholders. Initial changes can be a sign of later changes.
  • 25. Project 2014 - So what happened with the epic deferred to 2014?  Added further experienced staff early on to reduce risk  Carried out tight project control  Maintained quality (TDD, Stop the line etc)  Reached “scope implemented” on schedule Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 25
  • 26. Recommendations – In Priority Order 1. Consider shorter release cycles (as advocated by “Lean”)  Reduces cost of estimation  Reduces risk for all stakeholders  Gets value to customers faster $$$ Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 26 $ $ $ Value Delivered Value Delivered Value Delivered
  • 27. Recommendations 2. Enable Project Control - Epic by Epic - Compare each epic with historical data to get a base size estimate - Decide on level of uncertainty/contingency considering  Historical variation or industry standard variation for phase of project  Number of matches on your “hard to estimate” list  Options for varying fidelity - Do not negotiate the uncertainty or assume you will be lucky... Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 27 Line in the sand
  • 28. Recommendations 2. Enable Project Control – Across All Epics - Check composition of your backlog as well as its size. One Large Epic, Squeezed In, No Optional Stories Epic 1 Epic 2 Epic 3 Epic 4 Epic 5 Epic 6  “Agile works, when you have flexibility in scope” - Actively discuss uncertainty with management during project planning Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 28 
  • 29. Recommendations 3) Ensure you have a viable pre-agreed fall-back option 4) Get superhero costume? Perhaps Not… Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 29
  • 30. Resources / Further Reading Interesting recent studies on software estimation Professor Magne Jørgensen Thanks – Any Questions? Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 30 http://code.google.com/p/gource/ Still very relevant… Comments/ideas welcomed - ian.hawkins@siemens.com
  • 31. Resources Interesting recent studies on software estimation Professor Magne Jørgensen Thanks – Any Questions? Unrestricted © Siemens 2014 All rights reserved. Page 31 http://code.google.com/p/gource/ Still very relevant… Comments/ideas welcomed - ian.hawkins@siemens.com