This document discusses Amesbury school district enrollment projections and scenarios. It shows that enrollment has declined across elementary, middle, and high schools over the last 10-14 years. If trends continue, high school enrollment could drop to 542 students by 2022, making the high school potentially unsustainable. The document raises questions about why families are choosing other school options and what the district can do to attract and retain students.

1. Amesbury
Enrollment
Projection
Scenarios
Rob Chamberlain
Source DESE data

2. Elementary 1- 4 737
2010
Middle School 738
High School -
632
2014 2018
Change in Enrollment from same cohorts
14% loss
Amesbury Population
2000 2004 2008 2010 2014
16,450 16,737 16,584 16,283 17,294
How does overall enrollment change for a cohort
of 4 grades as they move through the schools?

3. Elementary 1- 4 867
2000
Middle School 868
High School -
729
2004 2008
Change in Enrollment from same cohorts
16% loss
What did district look like 10 years ago?
Amesbury Population
2000 2004 2008 2010 2014
16,450 16,737 16,584 16,283 17,294

4. Elementary 1- 4 707
2014
Middle School 677 High School - ?
2018 2022
What could HS look like in 4 years
4% loss

5. Elementary 1- 4 726
2006
Middle School 763
High School -
632
2010 2014
Elementary 1- 4 819
2002
Middle School 766 High School 668
2006 2010
12.8% loss
Elementary 1- 4 728
2010
Middle School 738 High School 630
2014 2018
6.5% loss
17.2% loss
5.1% gain
14.6% loss
1.4% gain

6. Projected HS Enrollment 2022
4 years from now, what the HS could look like if we don’t act
:
MS Enrollment 2018 - 677
20% drop from Middle School - 542 - potential lost CH70 revenue - $609,300
15% drop from Middle School - 575 - potential lost CH70 revenue - $456,975
10% drop from Middle School - 609 - potential lost CH70 revenue - $304,650
Is HS sustainable with 542 students?
Recent 8th to 9th attrition rates
2018 =16% - 2017 =19% - 2016 =23% - 2015=17%
This does not include increases seen in 9th to 10th attrition.

7. How has HS Enrollment changed since 2004
Year Total Enrollment Change from 2004 % Change from
2004
2004 810
2008 729 - 81 - 10%
2018 632 -178 - 22%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we don’t break recent trend of 20% attrition from MS (677 current enrollment)
2022 542 -268 - 33%
2026 486 -324 - 40%
268 fewer students equals 1.2 million less CH70 aid compared to 2004
90 fewer students equals 450k less CH70 aid compared to now
Can we break the trend?
Plan for a HS of 700
Students? 800 ?

8. MS Enrollment Changes
Year Total Enrollment Change from 2004 % Change from
2004
2004 868
2014 738 -130 -15%
2018 677 -191 -22%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we don’t break recent trend of 5% in MS (640)
2022 608 -260 30%
260 fewer students equals $859,000 less in CH70 aid compared to 2004
69 fewer students equals $310,000 less in CH70 aid than now

9. Elementary Enrollment Changes 1-4
Year Total Enrollment Change from 2004 %
Change from 2004
2004 746
2014 707 - 39 - 5%
2018 640 -106 - 14%
106 fewer students equals $477,000 less in CH70 aid annually (at 4500 a student)

10. Questions
- Problem - Increased recent attrition trends within Middle School
and recent acceleration in 8th to 9th attrition means even fewer students going to AHS
- At what size are schools not viable independently?
- Local regional schools also facing declines (except tech schools)
- Which districts in the region are increasing enrollment? Why?
- Are we serious about knowing why families are choosing other options?
- Do we know what types of families we’re losing?
- What are we doing to bring students back from charters, private, and parochial
schools?
- How are communicating with families looking at private MS?
- I’m concerned when I hear school leaders dismiss declining enrollment as just “families moving”.
We can’t solve problems if we can’t properly assess what the problems are.)

11. What districts could be templates for Amesbury
I Left out wealthiest and poorest
districts which are growing even
faster than those listed on left.
Districts have grown over the last
10 years.

12. Enrollment changes by county last 10 years
Overall enrollment has increased in Essex county
the last 10 years