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Thematic study on consumption,
 food insecurity and vulnerability

        Oluyemisi Kuku, Astrid Mathiassen, Amit Wadhwa,
                  Lucy Myles and Akeem Ajibola



         NSSP National Conference 2012:
  “Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation
 Agenda with policy analysis and research evidence”

              Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Introduction
 A Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability
  Analysis (CFSVA). Attempt to develop broad-based
  national indicators on food security and vulnerability
  of various segments of a population across regions.

 Joint report with WFP

 Data: Living Standards Measurement Study-
  Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA).
   • National bureau of statistics (NBS) and the World
     Bank.
   • Approx. 5000 respondents who are interviewed
     every two years.
   • This analysis relies on post-harvest data
Key Findings
 Food insecurity and poverty are intricately linked
 The poorest livelihoods are found in agriculture
 Households that engage in agriculture and other
  activities fare better than those in agriculture alone
 The vulnerable and food insecure are mostly found in
  rural areas and the North West and North East regions of
  Nigeria
 High food prices are a major constraint to vulnerable
  households
 Poor households engage in extreme coping strategies to
  deal with food shortages
What is food security?


 “Food security exists when all people, at
 all times, have physical, social, and
 economic access to sufficient, safe and
 nutritious food which meets their dietary
 needs and food preferences for an active
 and healthy life.”
 – World Food Summit, 1996
Dimensions of food security

                           Food Security




   Availability                  Access                  Utilization
 • Domestic production     • Household production     • Care and feeding
 • Commercial imports      • Financial resources to     practices
                             purchase food            • Food preparation
 • Reserves and food aid
                           • Food prices and          • Intra-household
                             markets                    distribution
                           • Existence of             • Biological utilization of
                             formal/informal social     food consumed
                             safety nets


    Stability
DEMOGRAPHICS


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Household characteristics

                    Household head (%)          Basic literacy(%)

                           male          household head      spouse
Zone
    North central          89                 56               33
    North east             97                 50               29
    North West             98                 62               45
    South East             71                 61               68
    South South            77                 72               75
    South West             79                 73               73
Sector
    Urban                  82                 78               72
    Rural                  86                 55               42
On average about half of the household
members are dependents (children or elderly)

             6
                                  51
female

                   24
                                                                age 60+
             9
             8                                                  age 15-59
                                                                age 6-14
             8                                                  age 2-5
                             45                                 age 0-2
male




                       26
             10
             9


         0        10        20         30        40   50   60
                                       percent
DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Food Consumption Score

 The Food Consumption Score (FCS) is a composite score
  based on dietary diversity, food frequency and the relative
  nutritional importance of different food groups
 The FCS serves as a proxy for current food security
 The FCS is calculated by observing the frequency by which
  households consume various food items over a seven day
  recall period
 Each food item is put into a category and the categories
  are given a weight based on its relative nutritional value
 The FCS was developed and extensively used by WFP in
  food security assessments
Food Consumption Groups

   Food consumption groups are created from the FCS based on
    standard thresholds

   A FCS of 21 is a minimum. A FCS below 21 assumes a household
    does NOT to eat at least staple foods and vegetables on a daily
    basis and is thus considered to have a poor diet.

   A FCS between 21 and 35 reflects borderline food consumption. A
    FCS of 35 assumes daily consumption of staple and vegetables
    complemented by consumption of oil and pulses 4 days per week.


     Food consumption group              Standard threshold
     Poor food consumption                      0 – 21
     Borderline food consumption              21.5 - 35
     Acceptable food consumption                >35.5
Wealth Index:
A proxy indicator of household level wealth
   The wealth index is a composite index which attempts to measure
    wealth without relying on income and expenditure data
   The index is created by using a form of data reduction analysis
    called Principle Component Analysis (PCA)
   A number of variables are used collectively to describe the wealth
    of a household. In Nigeria, 16 variables were used to construct
    the wealth index
   After creating the index, the households are ranked and placed in
    quintiles to describe wealth groups within the population
        Assets                         Households amenities
        •   TV                         •   Improved walls / roof / floor
        •   Mobile phone               •   Improved drinking water
        •   Iron / sewing machine      •   Improved sanitation
        •   Refrigerator / stove       •   Electricity
        •   Electricity generator      •   Cooking fuel
        •   Car
        •   Sofa / chairs / table
Livelihood groups
 Due to the lack of proper income data we rely
  on time use data to assign household
  livelihood groups.
 Household members reports time spent in
  income generating activities. Total time spent
  in each activity is added for all household
  members.
 We assign the household to a livelihood
  group according to the proportion of time
  spent in the income generating activities.
Description of livelihood profiles
 Livelihood group                   Definition
Subsistence farmer, fisherman or
hunter only                         All time use in subsistence activities only

Mixed crop or cash crops only       All time use in agricultural activities only
Mainly agriculture with other       More than 50 percent of time in agriculture, with other
activities                          activities
                                    More than 50 percent of time use as an industry
Mainly industrial laborer           employee

Mainly small business (craftsman)   Mainly self employed artisans and craftsmen
                                    Mainly managing a business, involved in sales, and other
Mainly business/commerce            larger commercial activities

Mainly livestock/poultry            More than 50 percent of time use in animal husbandry
                                    Salaried workers in public or private sector with
Mainly professionals                professional qualifications.
                                    More than 50 percent of time use in provision of services
Mainly service laborers             that require no rigorous qualification
Agricultural & non agricultural     Carries out a variety of livelihood activities in agriculture
mixed activities                    and other sectors
                                    Carries out a variety of activities in the non-agricultural
Non agricultural mixed activities   sector.
Percent of total households
 in each livelihood group
          25


          20                                   21.4



          15
                     15.2
Percent




                            13.3
                                                                   12.3
          10                                                11.3

                                   7.7
          5
                                         5.0
               3.8                                                        4.3   4.0
                                                      1.6
          0
FOOD SECURITY AND
VULNERABILITY INDICATORS
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
WHICH GROUPS ARE MOST
VULNERABLE?
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Geographic distribution of wealth
                         0%                20%              40%            60%                 80%             100%

         North Central    25.5                     25.6                  21.1             19.1                8.7


           North East     36.2                               30.4                      17.8           10.9


          North West      38.2                                   30.5                   18.4            9.2
Region




           South East     8.9       16.3           26.4                  25.4                  23.1


          South South     6.4 13.4           21.0                 27.7                  31.5


           South West     9.4       9.8     17.4             25.5                37.9


                Urban         7.7   20.4              30.1                      39.4
Sector




                 Rural    31.5                            28.1                  19.8             13.3          7.2


                 poorest            poorer            moderate              wealthier                wealthiest
Percent of population in the two poorest
wealth quintiles – by region
          80


          60                     67
                       64

               50
          40
Percent




          20                               22
                                                    19
                                                              16

          0




 • A greater proportion of households are poor in the northern regions
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Livelihood groups by rural/urban divide

 Percent of households
                                                                                              urban      rural
                                                        30.1



                                                                                      17.33
                                                               15.75   15.27
                         10.08                                                                9.04
                                                                               8.64                   8.24
                                 6.14   6.48   4.03                                                          1.2




                                                      Wealthy livelihood groups


• Poor livelihoods are more prevalent in rural areas
Vulnerability: High food expenditures
                   Food expenditure share >75% by region
 80%

                                                                              73%
 60%                                                            64%
                                  62%

       48%                                     50%
 40%
                                                                                               39%              41%

 20%                 27%                                                                                                       29%


 0%
                      Urban



                                       Rural
        National




                                                                 North East
                                                North Central




                                                                               North West




                                                                                                                                South West
                                                                                                                 South South
                                                                                                   South East
                              Sector                                                        Zone
Vulnerability: High Food expenditures

      Food expenditure>75% : By livelihood group
   80%
                                           78%
         72%
   60%         68%
                     63%
                                                             55%
   40%
                           41% 41%
                                     37%               36%
   20%                                           30%
                                                                   21%
    0%
FOOD DEFICITS AND
COPING STRATEGIES
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Food Sources by geographic area

                            100%               4%                                                                                      5%
                                   16%                                                        18% 17% 14%
                                                        24% 26% 28%
                            80%
Share of food expenditure



                            60%                73%                                                                                     72%
                                   66%                                                        66% 67% 70%                                           Own production
                                                        62% 58% 59%
                            40%
                                                                                                                                                    Purchased
                            20%
                                                                                                                                                    Away from home
                                   15% 20% 12% 14% 11% 16% 14% 13% 19%
                             0%



                                                                                               North west




                                                                                                                                       South west
                                                Urban




                                                                                                            South east
                                    National




                                                         Rural




                                                                                 North east
                                                                 North central




                                                                                                                         South south
                                                Sector                                              Zone
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Mean number of days per week food item
is consumed at home
                Rural        6.6   2.9 5.0            3.4             2.4 5.4
Sector
                Urban        6.4   3.1    4.9         4.3               2.5 5.3
                                                                                              cereals and tubers
           South West        6.3   2.9 4.5           4.2               4.8                    pulses
                                                                                              vegetables
          South South        6.7   2.8 4.9                5.0                      5.7
                                                                                              fruit
           South East        6.1   2.3 4.1          3.8                4.9                    meat and fish
Region




                                                                                              milk
          North West         6.7   2.9 5.5            2.3         3.4        5.9
                                                                                              sugar
           North East        6.7   3.8        5.4          3.1         3.8      5.5           oil

         North Central       6.5   3.0 5.1            3.9             2.6 5.7

             National        6.5   2.9 4.9            3.7             2.5 5.4


                         0               10                      20                      30
                                         Days
Food consumption categories by
wealth quintile

Wealthiest        13.0                84.8

                                                             poor
Wealthier         14.3                82.2
                                                             borderline

                                                             acceptable
 Moderate          12.4               82.1



   Poorer          15.3                79.7



  Poorest                20.4            71.0


             0%          20%    40%   60%       80%   100%
Causes of food shortages

                           29.5
  High food prices
                           35.8
                           4.8
 Financial hardship
                           21.0
                           7.9
     Other reasons
                           16.1
                           16.0
Lack of farm inputs
                           3.9
                           13.8                       Rural
    Small land size
                           5.0                        Urban
                           9.9
           Drought
                           4.7
                           6.8
 Crop pest damage
                           2.2
                           2.6
  Civil unrest/riots
                           5.6

                       0          10   20   30   40
Most frequent coping strategies for
dealing with food shortages
30

25

20                                           Go a whole day without
                                             food
15
                                             Reduce number of
10                                           meals eaten in a day

 5                                           Rely on less preferred
                                             foods
 0




• Poorer households use more severe coping strategies
Conclusion
 Key message:
   • Rural/urban differences
   • Regional differences
   • Poverty concentrated in the agricultural sector

 Analysis is ongoing – the full report is
  forthcoming
THANK YOU


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
NSSP Report 11




The role of Nigerian agriculture in West African
                Food Security

                      Dr. R.O. Babatunde
                         University of Ilorin, Nigeria




NSSP 2012 National Conference, 13-14 November, 2012, Rockview Hotel Royale,
                          Wuse 2, Abuja, Nigeria.
NSSP Report 11

This study was commissioned by IFPRI to:

       Identifies Nigeria’s potentials and comparative advantage in the
        production of main agricultural commodities within the sub-region

       Assess the implication of Nigeria’s agricultural production and the
        potential of its export in enhancing food security in the WA sub-region

       Identify the key drivers of food security in WA and the role of Nigeria

Approach:

        Review and analysis of secondary information obtained from ECOWAS,
         FAOSTAT, CBN and NBS
        Specific evidences in different countries
NSSP Report 11

                                  Outline
 Background
   • State of food security and agricultural production in West Africa
   • Significance of Nigeria’s economy in West Africa sub-region
 Nigeria’s agricultural potentials
   • Agricultural resources in Nigeria
   • Key agricultural commodities and their production level
 Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria
   •   Agriculture
   •   Intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities
   •   Agricultural research and development
   •   Peace and security
   •   Technology transfer
 Conclusion and policy issues
NSSP Report 11

 West Africa – socioeconomic characteristics

  • 15 countries with a total population of 317 million people (2012 estimation)

  • Population density ranges from 168/km2 in the forest to 3/km2 in the sahel

  • Population growth rate is 2.6% per annum in 2000-2005, expected to grow
    at 1.2% in 2045-2050 (OECD, 2009)

  • Population of WA is expected to exceed 400 million by 2020 and 500
    million between 2030 and 2050

  • Urban population in WA is 45% and expected to reach 70% in 2050

  • Annual urbanization rate of approximately 4% (USAID, 2010)
NSSP Report 11

 West Africa – socioeconomic characteristics
  • Land area of WA is 5,113,000 km2 (2.4 times the size of India and 1.8
    times the size of 27 EU countries)

  • Nigeria account for 50% of the population of WA
NSSP Report 11

 West Africa – economy

  • One of the least developed regions in the World, mostly agro-based
    economies with agriculture contributing 35% of regional GDP and over
    15% of export earnings

  • Average regional GDP of $391 billion, growing at 5.89% annually for the
    last 10 years (USAID, 2010)

  • Average GNI per capita of $1,198 in 2011 based on 2005 PPP

  • Human development index (HDI) ranges from 0.295 in Niger to 0.568 in
    Cape Verde (average HDI is 0.403) (UNDP, 2012)

  • Life expectancy ranges from 47.8 years in Sierra Leone to 74.2 years in
    Cape Verde (average life expectancy at birth is 56.3 years)
NSSP Report 11


 West Africa – agriculture and food security
  • About 60% of the population is involve in agriculture, but the region as a
    whole import 20% of its food need

  • Agricultural land make up about 49.7% of the total land area with the
    highest in Nigeria (81.8%) and lowest in Cape Verde (21.8%)

  • The region has about 9 million hectare of irrigable land (OECD, 2009)

  • WA has one of the lowest yields in the World and only 30% of growth in
    agric production is through productivity increases

  • Main staple food crops include
    sorghum, millet, cassava, yam, plantains, maize (maize and livestock
    being the most traded) (USAID, 2010)
NSSP Report 11
 Profile of West African countries
Countries               Population     Food supply     Food insecurity      Stunting        Poverty
                         (millions)   (kcal/cap/day)     (% of pop)      (% of children)   (% of pop)
Benin                        9.4          2,510              12               44.7           39.0
Burkina Faso                 17.5         2,670              8                35.1           46.4
Cape Verde                   0.5          2,550              11               NA             26.6
Cote d’Ivoire                20.6         2,510              14               39.0           42.7
Gambia                       1.8          2,350              19               27.6           58.0
Ghana                        25.5         2,850              5                28.6           28.5
Guinea                       10.5         2,530              16               39.3           53.0
Guinea-Bissau                1.6          2,288              22               28.1           64.7
Liberia                      4.2          2,160              32               39.4           63.8
Mali                         16.3         2,580              12               38.5           47.4
Niger                        16.6         2,310              16               54.8           59.5
Nigeria                   166.6           2,710              6                41.0           54.7
Senegal                      13.1         2,320              19               20.1           50.8
Sierra Leone                 6.1          2,130              35               37.4           66.4
Togo                         6.3          2,150              30               26.9           61.7
West Africa                  317         2,441.2            17.1              40.5           50.8
Ref. year                    2012       2006/07             2008             2010            2009

Source: UNDP, 2012 Africa Human Development Report
NSSP Report 11
 In summary ………..
   Dietary energy supply (DES) has increased in WA from about 2,000
    kcal/capita/day in 1980s to 2,440 kcal/capita/day in 2007
      •   The increase is more in the coastal zone than in the sahelian zone
      •   Protein availability also increase from 45g to 50g per capita/day
      •   Diet quality and diversity has not improve proportionally
      •   Child malnutrition has actually increase (UNDP, 2012)


   Prevalence of undernourishment also declines from 22.1% of the
    population in 2004/05 to 17.1% in 2008 (UNDP, 2012)
      • In SSA the prevalence has fallen from 27.2% to 26.5%
      • Region may not reach the MDG target if prevailing trends persist


   Despite improvement, challenges still persist
      • Conflict in northern Mali
      • Flooding in Nigeria, Benin has affected more than 1.5 million people
      • Desert locust in Niger and Mali
NSSP Report 11

 Significant of Nigeria’s economy in West Africa sub-region

    Largest economy in WA and second largest in Africa
       • Account for approximately 53% of the population and over 50% of the
         regional gross domestic product (GDS, 2010)
    Largest producer of major agricultural products in the region
       • Responsible for 50-60% of total regional cereals production (GDS, 2010)
    Largest oil producer, followed by Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Ghana
       • Nigeria accounts for 86% of total WA oil production (OECD, 2009)
       • Largest combined oil and gas reserves in WA and Africa
    Provides fuel, electricity and gas to countries in the sub-region
       •   About 80% of fuel consume in Benin is from Nigeria (IMF, 2012)
       •   Supply gas to Ghana
       •   Supply electricity to Niger
       •   5% of Nigeria oil is exported to WA countries (OECD, 2009)
NSSP Report 11


 Agricultural potentials of Nigeria

    Agricultural land area of 79 million hectares
       •   32 million hectares under cultivation
       •   30% of arable land in WA is found in Nigeria (GDS, 2010)
       •   3.14 million hectares of potential irrigable land (Ruma, 2009)
       •   5-8 million hectares of fadama


    Adequate supply of water
       • 267 billion cubic meters of surface water (Ruma, 2009)
       • 57.9 billion cubic meters of underground water (Ruma, 2009)
       • Annual rainfall ranging from 300mm to 4,000mm
NSSP Report 11


 Agricultural potentials of Nigeria

    Availability of labour
       • Population of 166 million (2012 estimates)
       • Close to 70% of the population engage in agriculture


    Availability and supply of other inputs
       • 30,000 tractors available in the country
             • To be increased by 10,000 tractors per annum (Ruma, 2009)
             • 70% of tractors in WA countries are in Nigeria (GDS, 2010)
       •   One extension agent per 10,000 farmers (Ruma, 2009)
       •   Average fertilizer demand of 3 million tons per year
       •   Establishment of 774 agro service centres (1 stop shop for farmers)
       •   4% of bank credit lending go to agric sector (2007)
NSSP Report 11

 Current agricultural production level in Nigeria
    Output of major staple crops has continue to increase
            • Total output and index of production of staples have continue to increase


   Commodities                             Output in 1000 tons           Percent change
                                     1990                        2006
   Maize                             5768                        11005        90.7
   Millet                            5136                        7845         52.7
   Sorghum                           4185                        11239       168.5
   Rice                              2500                        4169         66.7
   Wheat                             554                          15         -97.2
   Beans                             1354                        4739         250
   Cassava                          19043                        38254       100.8
   Yam                              13624                        30188       121.5
   Cocoyam                           731                         2633        260.1
   Plantain                          1215                        1317         83.9
  Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2007
NSSP Report 11

                                                             Total output of major staple agricultural commodities in Nigeria, 1970-2006

                                                   160000
Output of agricultural commodities (1000 tonnes)




                                                   140000


                                                   120000


                                                   100000


                                                    80000


                                                    60000


                                                    40000


                                                    20000


                                                        0
                                                        70

                                                              72

                                                                    74

                                                                          76

                                                                                78

                                                                                      80

                                                                                            82

                                                                                                  84

                                                                                                        86

                                                                                                              88

                                                                                                                    90

                                                                                                                          92

                                                                                                                                94

                                                                                                                                      96

                                                                                                                                            98

                                                                                                                                                  00

                                                                                                                                                        02

                                                                                                                                                              04

                                                                                                                                                                    06

                                                                                                                                                                          08
                                                      19

                                                             19

                                                                   19

                                                                         19

                                                                               19

                                                                                     19

                                                                                           19

                                                                                                 19

                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                             19

                                                                                                                   19

                                                                                                                         19

                                                                                                                               19

                                                                                                                                     19

                                                                                                                                           19

                                                                                                                                                 20

                                                                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                                                                             20

                                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                                         20
                                                                                                                   Year

                                                             Source: FAOSTAT
NSSP Report 11

                                                            Index of production of staples, livestock and fishery in Nigeria (1999 = 100)
                                                     300



                                                     250
    Index of staples, livestock and fishery output




                                                     200



                                                     150



                                                     100



                                                      50



                                                       0
                                                           1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
                                                                                                  Year

                                                                                     STAPLES        LIVESTOCK         FISHERY
Source: FAOSTAT
NSSP Report 11

 Current agricultural production level in Nigeria
     Area under cultivation and productivity of major staple crops has
      increase

 Commodities               Area under cultivation   Yield (t/ha)   Total output
                                 (1000 ha)                         (1000 tons)
 Maize                             4,460               1.59           7,091
 Rice                              2,131               1.97           4,200
 Cassava                           3,261               15.0          48,915
 Wheat                              150                1.09            163
 Millet                              -                  1.3           7,700
 Tomato                             305                  8            2,440
 Sugar Cane                         296                17.9           5322

Source: FMAWR, 2009
NSSP Report 11

 Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria
 Agriculture
    Relative share of Nigeria’s agricultural production in the ECOWAS
     sub-region and implication for food security
       • Largest producer of staple crops in WA (GDS, 2010)
       • Largest producer of Cassava in the World and second largest producer of
         Sweet Potatoes (Eboh et al., 2004)
       • Account for 51% of total food supply in WA (FAOSTAT)
       • Root and tuber output was 89 million tons in 2008 (69% of WA total)
       • Account for 53% of Maize, 48% of Rice, 69% of Millet and 58% of
         Cowpea regional production (GDS, 2010)
       • Livestock production in Nigeria is 36% of total for the region

    Total food output in Nigeria and WA followed similar trend
       • Nigerian agriculture is a major component of regional agriculture?
       • Food output in Nigeria is one of the drivers of WA food security?
NSSP Report 11


West African countries that rank first in average yield, output and cultivated area of
selected food crops, 1980-2002

Crops                Average yield           Production output           Cultivated area
Beans                 Mauritania                Cote d’Ivoire                Guinea
Banana                Cape Verde                   Benin                      Togo
Cassava                 Nigeria                    Nigeria                   Nigeria
Rice                    Nigeria                    Nigeria                   Nigeria
Yam                     Nigeria                    Benin                     Nigeria
Millet                  Nigeria                    Nigeria                    Niger
Maize                   Gambia                     Nigeria                   Nigeria
Groundnut               Gambia                     Nigeria                   Nigeria
Sorghum                 Nigeria                    Nigeria                   Nigeria
Plantain                Ghana                      Nigeria                Cote d’Ivoire

Source: Computed from FAOSTAT
NSSP Report 11

                                            Total food output in Nigeria and West Africa, 1970-2007
                                  400000


                                  350000
Total food output (1000 tonnes)




                                  300000


                                  250000


                                  200000


                                  150000


                                  100000


                                   50000


                                      0
                                       70

                                       72

                                       74

                                       76

                                       78

                                       80

                                       82

                                       84

                                       86

                                       88

                                       90

                                       92

                                       94

                                       96

                                       98

                                       00

                                       02

                                       04

                                       06
                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     19

                                     20

                                     20

                                     20

                                     20
                                                                NIGERIA   Year   WEST AFRICA


                                           Source: FAOSTAT
NSSP Report 11

 Agriculture

    Contribution of Nigeria’s agricultural production to regional food security

       • During the 2005 food crisis, Nigeria supplies 60-70% of Niger’s grain import
         (Diao, 2010), which help to improve food availability in the country
       • 80-100 % of markets in Niger are supplied dry grains from Nigeria every
         week (FEWSNET, 2010)
       • Food produce from Nigeria are exported and sold in markets in Benin, Mali
         and Ghana (GDS, 2010)
            • Nigeria herself is a net importer of food such as rice, wheat, meat sugar, milk
       • Many of the countries in WA obtain part of their food import from Nigeria
            • Larger proportion of this food import are smuggled and unaccounted for, example include
              grain, garri and yam (GDS, 2010)
       • There is re-exportation of food from Nigeria to WA countries, which has
         contributed to food availability in those countries, e.g. Benin, Ghana
         (GDS, 2010)
NSSP Report 11

 Agriculture

    Role of Nigeria in ECOWAS regional agricultural policy (ECOWAP)

       • Nigeria supported the establishment of ECOWAP as a regional policy
         framework for agriculture and food security in 2005
            • ECOWAP proposes a common agricultural policy in WA countries
            • Aims to improve productivity and competitiveness of agriculture in WA
            • Implement trade regimes within the region and between the region and outsider


       • Nigeria facilitated the signing of ECOWAP/CAADP agreement in 2009, when
         the country is holding the chairmanship of ECOWAS

       • Nigeria facilitated the decision by ECOWAS to establish the regional
         programme for food security (RPFS) as a component of ECOWAP
            • Based on the success of the Nigeria’s special programmes for food security
              (SPFS) (Ruma, 2009)
NSSP Report 11

  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria
 Intra-regional trade

    Role of Nigeria in intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities

       • Promote intra-regional trade in ECOWAS countries
           • 5% of Nigeria export is to WA countries and 2% of import is from WA countries
           • Important for cross-border trade in agricultural commodities (GTZ, 2010)
           • Participate in more than 60% of intra-regional trade involving mostly agricultural
             commodities
                • Level of intra-regional trade is still low with export and import within the region making up
                  8.4 and 16.7% respectively of the total value of regional export and import
           • Adopted trade liberalization in 2004


       • Facilitate access to agricultural commodities through the cross-border trade
         (GDS, 2010)
           • Net supplier of millet, sorghum, maize to Niger, Chad and Cameroun (GDS, 2010)
NSSP Report 11




 Intra-regional trade

    Role of Nigeria in regional trade integration

       • Major supporter of the ECOWAS common currency
       • Reduced her protectionist trade policy and adopted the ECOWAS common
         external tariff (CET) regime
       • Instrumental to the negotiation of economic partnership agreement (EPA) with
         the EU in 2007 (GDS, 2010)
       • Nigeria Banks providing financial services in WA countries e.g. Ghana, Liberia
NSSP Report 11

  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria
 Agricultural research and development

    Role of Nigeria in regional agricultural research and development

       • Promotion of agricultural R&D
           • Has the largest R&D in WA in terms of investment and number of researchers
           • Investment in R&D doubled from 12 million naira in 2000 to 24 million naira in
             2008 (Flaherty et al., 2010)
           • Nigeria has some of the best agricultural universities and research institutes in the
             WA region
           • Between 2000 and 2008, research capacity increased from 1,300 to more than
             2,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) researchers
           • Agricultural R&D in Nigeria is primarily funded by government and donor
           • Mainly focus on crops and livestock improvement, with cassava and poultry being
             the most heavily researched components (Flaherty et al., 2010)
NSSP Report 11

  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria
 Peace and security

    Role of Nigeria in regional peace and security

       • Maintenance of peace and security in the region
           • Leading contributor to ECOMOG intervention force to monitor ceasefire in conflict-
             stricken countries (GDS, 2010)
           • Provide support for the establishment of AU parliament and the court of justice
           • Maintain bilateral agreement for maritime and border security e.g. with Benin


       • Resolution of conflicts in the region
           • Mediate and facilitate conflict resolution in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire
           • Participate in UN peace keeping operation even beyond WA region e.g. in Sudan,
             Chad, Somalia, Angola and Congo (Okunnu, 2010)
NSSP Report 11

  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria
 Technology transfer

    Role of Nigeria in technology transfer

       • Deployment of Technical Aid Corps

           • Agricultural experts are deployed to countries in WA to assist in capacity building
             for improve agricultural production
NSSP Report 11

 Conclusion


   At the regional level, agriculture, trade, peace and security, R&D and
    technology are the main drivers of food security and in these sectors,
    Nigeria has the greatest potential to contribute to increase food security

         Agriculture will guarantee food availability
         Intra-regional trade can enhances food accessibility
         Agricultural R&D can improves yield and increase food availability
         Peace and security can ensure stability of food supplies

   Implication is that Nigeria’s agricultural production has the greatest
    potentials to contribute to food security through intra-regional trade in
    agricultural commodities
       Largest producer and marketer of agricultural commodities in WA
NSSP Report 11

What should be done………..
  Support Nigeria’s effort to increase the production of key agricultural
   commodities such as cereals, root and tuber where the country has
   comparative advantage

     •   Development of smallholder agriculture
     •   Intensify agricultural R&D to improve yield
     •   Investment in rural infrastructure and storage facilities
     •   Input subsidies for farmers


  Strengthen regional integration in trade especially in agricultural
   commodities

     • Remove barriers to trade and ensure free movement of goods and people
     • Harmonization of tariffs to the ECOWAS common external tariff
     • Single currency should be pursued more vigorously like in the EU
NSSP Report 11




Thank you for your attention
Making micronutrients accessible in Nigeria through
         biofortification of staple crops




     Paul Ilona, Country Manager - Nigeria
Background

• The Copenhagen Consensus – 2008 reviewed and identified
  the best ways to solve the world’s biggest problems

• Of the top 10 solutions 5 are focussed on reducing malnutrition

• Biofortification is one of such interventions. It ranked 5th along
  with supplementation (1st) and Fortification (2nd)

    This is an acknowledgement of a problem that
   is so widespread, needing more than one set of
       solutions or interventions to make impact.
What constitutes malnutrition?
 Inadequate intake of food nutrients required by the body cells
 to function properly:

Macronutrients
• Carbohydrate
• Protein
• Fat


Micronutrients
• Vitamins (A, B, C etc)
• Minerals (Fe, Zn etc)
Malnutrition: a contributory cause of half of
              under-five deaths in Nigeria

• Malnutrition and nutrition related
  diseases continue to be problems of                       2%
  public health importance in Nigeria                                        Neonatal
                                                     10% 3%
                                                                   24%       Malaria
•    Nutrition should be considered a
                                                    11% Malnutrition
                                                                             Pneumonia
    critical component of National
    development which cuts across many                                       Diarrhoea
    sectors                                                 53%              Measles
                                                    13%                20%
                                                                             Others
•    Malnutrition slows economic growth                    17%               HIV/AIDS
    and perpetuates poverty through                                          Injuries
    direct losses in productivity from poor
    physical status; indirect losses from
    poor cognitive function and deficits in   Wasting and vitamin A deficiency
    schooling; and losses owing to            increase substantially the risk of
                                              dying from the listed conditions.
    increased health care costs.
Status of micronutrient deficiency in Nigeria


Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD)      Iodine deficiency (IDD)

- 23% among children < 5 yrs    - 13% among children < 5 yrs
                                - 10% among pregnant women
- 13% among mothers
                                - 13% among nursing mothers
- 19% among pregnant women


Iron Deficiency Anaemia (IDA)   Zinc Deficiency


- 34% among u-5 children        - 20% among u-5 children
- 24% among mothers             - 28% among mothers
- 48% among pregnant women      - 44% among pregnant women
Status of Malnutrition in Nigeria by region
Why the attention on Vit A?

        Importance                    Consequences
• Vision (night, day, colour) •   Blindness
•   Epithelial cell integrity •   Preventable illness
    against infections        •   Stunted growth
•   Immune response           •   Lower cognitive ability
•   Red Blood Cell Production •   Reduced ability to work
•   Skeletal growth           •   Loss in GDP
•   Embryogenesis and fetal   •   Premature death
    development
    A weak and malnourished labour force will
        contribute less to ATA in Nigeria
Strategies employed to fight deficiency

                            Commercial
                            Fortification
What is biofortification?
Biofortification is the process of breeding food crops that are rich
in bioavailable micronutrients such as vitamin A, Iron and Zinc
Targeted crops to deliver micronutrients
            Target Micro-N   Target Release date Target Country


Rice             Zinc              2013          Bangladesh / India

Wheat            Zinc              2013          India / Pakistan

Millet           Iron              2012          India

Bean             Iron              2012          Rwanda / DRC

Maize            Vit A             2012          Zambia / Nigeria

Cassava          Vit A             2011          Nigeria / DRC

Sweet P          Vit A             2007          Uganda / Moz / Nig?
Will Biofortification Work?

    • Can breeding increase nutrient levels
      enough to improve human nutrition?


    • Will the extra nutrients be bioavailable at
      sufficient levels to improve micronutrient
      status?

    • Will farmers adopt and consumers buy/eat
      in sufficient quantities?
Progress in meeting targets
Three Vit A cassava varieties were released in Nig in 2011
  (1) UMUCASS 36 (2) UMUCASS 37 (3) UMUCASS 38
                                                 7 – 8 u/g of TCC
Progress in meeting targets

                                 7 – 8 u/g of TCC




Vitamin A maize released in July 2012
Next wave of imp. Vit A Cas varieties and target levels


 2015                                                                   ???


                                                         TMS
 2013                                               07/0593, NR
                                                       07/0220
                                         TMS
                                     01/1368, TMS
 2011
                                     01/1412, TMS
                                       01/1371

 2008             TMS 96/1089A



<2007       TMS 30572



        0    2      4    6       8      10     12      14    16   18   20     22
                    Total carotene content (ug/g) FW
Bioavailability of vitamin A in cassava

Comparatively higher than in other crops
   (average of 3-5 units = 1 retinol)
                                       90
                                       80
                                       70
                                       60




                       Retention (%)
                                       50
                                       40
                                       30
                                       20
                                       10
                                       0
                                            Boiled   Fried   Gari   Fufu
Consumer acceptance study
• This study investigated consumer acceptance
  of biofortified gari from two yellow cassava
  varieties (TMS 01/1368 and TMS 01/1371) vs
  local varieties in Oyo and Imo states
• Consumer acceptance investigated in terms of
    – Sensory (organoleptic) evaluation
    – Economic valuation (willingness to pay)
• Some consumers accepted yellow cassava
  varieties only after receiving information on
  their nutritional benefits while others
  accepted these varieties even without any
  information
    – Information was received as a simulated radio
      message in local languages.
    – This message explained the importance of Vitamin
      A for family health and that yellow cassava
      contained Vitamin A
Ex ante cost-effectiveness study
• This study estimated the costs and potential benefits of
  biofortification of cassava with vitamin A in Nigeria
• Benefits of biofortification were estimated in terms of the
  reduction in Disability Adjust Life Years (DALY) burden of vitamin
  A deficiency
• Cost per DALY averted as a result of biofortification of cassava
  with Vitamin A in Nigeria range from $8 in optimistic scenario to
  $137 in pessimistic scenario
• According to the World Bank (World Development
  Report, 1993), public health interventions costing less than
  $196 per DALY averted (in 2004 dollars) are highly cost effective.
• Therefore even in the pessimistic scenario, biofortification is a
  cost-effective public health intervention for combatting vitamin
  A deficiency in Nigeria
Multiplication and dissemination of stems
                                                      Over 500 ha planted in 2012




100,000 households to receive planting materials in
                      2013
Advocacy
Conclusion
• Rural health is very important if agriculture is to
  continue to contribute to GDP
• Agriculture is fundamental for good health through the
  production of more nutritious foods
• Biofortification will make agriculture deliver necessary
  nutrients naturally through the foods we eat, more cost
  efficiently and sustainably
• Therefore agriculture and health policies should not be
  treated in isolation
• Relevant policies in agriculture, health and perhaps
  education should be analysed to create synergies

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Day 2, Session 4: Enhancing Food Security and Nutrition through Agricultural Growth

  • 1. Thematic study on consumption, food insecurity and vulnerability Oluyemisi Kuku, Astrid Mathiassen, Amit Wadhwa, Lucy Myles and Akeem Ajibola NSSP National Conference 2012: “Informing Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda with policy analysis and research evidence” Abuja, Nigeria – November 13-14, 2012 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 2. Introduction  A Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA). Attempt to develop broad-based national indicators on food security and vulnerability of various segments of a population across regions.  Joint report with WFP  Data: Living Standards Measurement Study- Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). • National bureau of statistics (NBS) and the World Bank. • Approx. 5000 respondents who are interviewed every two years. • This analysis relies on post-harvest data
  • 3. Key Findings  Food insecurity and poverty are intricately linked  The poorest livelihoods are found in agriculture  Households that engage in agriculture and other activities fare better than those in agriculture alone  The vulnerable and food insecure are mostly found in rural areas and the North West and North East regions of Nigeria  High food prices are a major constraint to vulnerable households  Poor households engage in extreme coping strategies to deal with food shortages
  • 4. What is food security? “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” – World Food Summit, 1996
  • 5. Dimensions of food security Food Security Availability Access Utilization • Domestic production • Household production • Care and feeding • Commercial imports • Financial resources to practices purchase food • Food preparation • Reserves and food aid • Food prices and • Intra-household markets distribution • Existence of • Biological utilization of formal/informal social food consumed safety nets Stability
  • 7. Household characteristics Household head (%) Basic literacy(%) male household head spouse Zone North central 89 56 33 North east 97 50 29 North West 98 62 45 South East 71 61 68 South South 77 72 75 South West 79 73 73 Sector Urban 82 78 72 Rural 86 55 42
  • 8. On average about half of the household members are dependents (children or elderly) 6 51 female 24 age 60+ 9 8 age 15-59 age 6-14 8 age 2-5 45 age 0-2 male 26 10 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 percent
  • 9. DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 10. Food Consumption Score  The Food Consumption Score (FCS) is a composite score based on dietary diversity, food frequency and the relative nutritional importance of different food groups  The FCS serves as a proxy for current food security  The FCS is calculated by observing the frequency by which households consume various food items over a seven day recall period  Each food item is put into a category and the categories are given a weight based on its relative nutritional value  The FCS was developed and extensively used by WFP in food security assessments
  • 11. Food Consumption Groups  Food consumption groups are created from the FCS based on standard thresholds  A FCS of 21 is a minimum. A FCS below 21 assumes a household does NOT to eat at least staple foods and vegetables on a daily basis and is thus considered to have a poor diet.  A FCS between 21 and 35 reflects borderline food consumption. A FCS of 35 assumes daily consumption of staple and vegetables complemented by consumption of oil and pulses 4 days per week. Food consumption group Standard threshold Poor food consumption 0 – 21 Borderline food consumption 21.5 - 35 Acceptable food consumption >35.5
  • 12. Wealth Index: A proxy indicator of household level wealth  The wealth index is a composite index which attempts to measure wealth without relying on income and expenditure data  The index is created by using a form of data reduction analysis called Principle Component Analysis (PCA)  A number of variables are used collectively to describe the wealth of a household. In Nigeria, 16 variables were used to construct the wealth index  After creating the index, the households are ranked and placed in quintiles to describe wealth groups within the population Assets Households amenities • TV • Improved walls / roof / floor • Mobile phone • Improved drinking water • Iron / sewing machine • Improved sanitation • Refrigerator / stove • Electricity • Electricity generator • Cooking fuel • Car • Sofa / chairs / table
  • 13. Livelihood groups  Due to the lack of proper income data we rely on time use data to assign household livelihood groups.  Household members reports time spent in income generating activities. Total time spent in each activity is added for all household members.  We assign the household to a livelihood group according to the proportion of time spent in the income generating activities.
  • 14. Description of livelihood profiles Livelihood group Definition Subsistence farmer, fisherman or hunter only All time use in subsistence activities only Mixed crop or cash crops only All time use in agricultural activities only Mainly agriculture with other More than 50 percent of time in agriculture, with other activities activities More than 50 percent of time use as an industry Mainly industrial laborer employee Mainly small business (craftsman) Mainly self employed artisans and craftsmen Mainly managing a business, involved in sales, and other Mainly business/commerce larger commercial activities Mainly livestock/poultry More than 50 percent of time use in animal husbandry Salaried workers in public or private sector with Mainly professionals professional qualifications. More than 50 percent of time use in provision of services Mainly service laborers that require no rigorous qualification Agricultural & non agricultural Carries out a variety of livelihood activities in agriculture mixed activities and other sectors Carries out a variety of activities in the non-agricultural Non agricultural mixed activities sector.
  • 15. Percent of total households in each livelihood group 25 20 21.4 15 15.2 Percent 13.3 12.3 10 11.3 7.7 5 5.0 3.8 4.3 4.0 1.6 0
  • 16. FOOD SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY INDICATORS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 17. WHICH GROUPS ARE MOST VULNERABLE? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 18. Geographic distribution of wealth 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% North Central 25.5 25.6 21.1 19.1 8.7 North East 36.2 30.4 17.8 10.9 North West 38.2 30.5 18.4 9.2 Region South East 8.9 16.3 26.4 25.4 23.1 South South 6.4 13.4 21.0 27.7 31.5 South West 9.4 9.8 17.4 25.5 37.9 Urban 7.7 20.4 30.1 39.4 Sector Rural 31.5 28.1 19.8 13.3 7.2 poorest poorer moderate wealthier wealthiest
  • 19. Percent of population in the two poorest wealth quintiles – by region 80 60 67 64 50 40 Percent 20 22 19 16 0 • A greater proportion of households are poor in the northern regions
  • 20. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 21. Livelihood groups by rural/urban divide Percent of households urban rural 30.1 17.33 15.75 15.27 10.08 9.04 8.64 8.24 6.14 6.48 4.03 1.2 Wealthy livelihood groups • Poor livelihoods are more prevalent in rural areas
  • 22. Vulnerability: High food expenditures Food expenditure share >75% by region 80% 73% 60% 64% 62% 48% 50% 40% 39% 41% 20% 27% 29% 0% Urban Rural National North East North Central North West South West South South South East Sector Zone
  • 23. Vulnerability: High Food expenditures Food expenditure>75% : By livelihood group 80% 78% 72% 60% 68% 63% 55% 40% 41% 41% 37% 36% 20% 30% 21% 0%
  • 24. FOOD DEFICITS AND COPING STRATEGIES INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 25. Food Sources by geographic area 100% 4% 5% 16% 18% 17% 14% 24% 26% 28% 80% Share of food expenditure 60% 73% 72% 66% 66% 67% 70% Own production 62% 58% 59% 40% Purchased 20% Away from home 15% 20% 12% 14% 11% 16% 14% 13% 19% 0% North west South west Urban South east National Rural North east North central South south Sector Zone
  • 26. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 27. Mean number of days per week food item is consumed at home Rural 6.6 2.9 5.0 3.4 2.4 5.4 Sector Urban 6.4 3.1 4.9 4.3 2.5 5.3 cereals and tubers South West 6.3 2.9 4.5 4.2 4.8 pulses vegetables South South 6.7 2.8 4.9 5.0 5.7 fruit South East 6.1 2.3 4.1 3.8 4.9 meat and fish Region milk North West 6.7 2.9 5.5 2.3 3.4 5.9 sugar North East 6.7 3.8 5.4 3.1 3.8 5.5 oil North Central 6.5 3.0 5.1 3.9 2.6 5.7 National 6.5 2.9 4.9 3.7 2.5 5.4 0 10 20 30 Days
  • 28. Food consumption categories by wealth quintile Wealthiest 13.0 84.8 poor Wealthier 14.3 82.2 borderline acceptable Moderate 12.4 82.1 Poorer 15.3 79.7 Poorest 20.4 71.0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
  • 29. Causes of food shortages 29.5 High food prices 35.8 4.8 Financial hardship 21.0 7.9 Other reasons 16.1 16.0 Lack of farm inputs 3.9 13.8 Rural Small land size 5.0 Urban 9.9 Drought 4.7 6.8 Crop pest damage 2.2 2.6 Civil unrest/riots 5.6 0 10 20 30 40
  • 30. Most frequent coping strategies for dealing with food shortages 30 25 20 Go a whole day without food 15 Reduce number of 10 meals eaten in a day 5 Rely on less preferred foods 0 • Poorer households use more severe coping strategies
  • 31. Conclusion  Key message: • Rural/urban differences • Regional differences • Poverty concentrated in the agricultural sector  Analysis is ongoing – the full report is forthcoming
  • 32. THANK YOU INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 33. NSSP Report 11 The role of Nigerian agriculture in West African Food Security Dr. R.O. Babatunde University of Ilorin, Nigeria NSSP 2012 National Conference, 13-14 November, 2012, Rockview Hotel Royale, Wuse 2, Abuja, Nigeria.
  • 34. NSSP Report 11 This study was commissioned by IFPRI to:  Identifies Nigeria’s potentials and comparative advantage in the production of main agricultural commodities within the sub-region  Assess the implication of Nigeria’s agricultural production and the potential of its export in enhancing food security in the WA sub-region  Identify the key drivers of food security in WA and the role of Nigeria Approach:  Review and analysis of secondary information obtained from ECOWAS, FAOSTAT, CBN and NBS  Specific evidences in different countries
  • 35. NSSP Report 11 Outline  Background • State of food security and agricultural production in West Africa • Significance of Nigeria’s economy in West Africa sub-region  Nigeria’s agricultural potentials • Agricultural resources in Nigeria • Key agricultural commodities and their production level  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria • Agriculture • Intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities • Agricultural research and development • Peace and security • Technology transfer  Conclusion and policy issues
  • 36. NSSP Report 11  West Africa – socioeconomic characteristics • 15 countries with a total population of 317 million people (2012 estimation) • Population density ranges from 168/km2 in the forest to 3/km2 in the sahel • Population growth rate is 2.6% per annum in 2000-2005, expected to grow at 1.2% in 2045-2050 (OECD, 2009) • Population of WA is expected to exceed 400 million by 2020 and 500 million between 2030 and 2050 • Urban population in WA is 45% and expected to reach 70% in 2050 • Annual urbanization rate of approximately 4% (USAID, 2010)
  • 37. NSSP Report 11  West Africa – socioeconomic characteristics • Land area of WA is 5,113,000 km2 (2.4 times the size of India and 1.8 times the size of 27 EU countries) • Nigeria account for 50% of the population of WA
  • 38. NSSP Report 11  West Africa – economy • One of the least developed regions in the World, mostly agro-based economies with agriculture contributing 35% of regional GDP and over 15% of export earnings • Average regional GDP of $391 billion, growing at 5.89% annually for the last 10 years (USAID, 2010) • Average GNI per capita of $1,198 in 2011 based on 2005 PPP • Human development index (HDI) ranges from 0.295 in Niger to 0.568 in Cape Verde (average HDI is 0.403) (UNDP, 2012) • Life expectancy ranges from 47.8 years in Sierra Leone to 74.2 years in Cape Verde (average life expectancy at birth is 56.3 years)
  • 39. NSSP Report 11  West Africa – agriculture and food security • About 60% of the population is involve in agriculture, but the region as a whole import 20% of its food need • Agricultural land make up about 49.7% of the total land area with the highest in Nigeria (81.8%) and lowest in Cape Verde (21.8%) • The region has about 9 million hectare of irrigable land (OECD, 2009) • WA has one of the lowest yields in the World and only 30% of growth in agric production is through productivity increases • Main staple food crops include sorghum, millet, cassava, yam, plantains, maize (maize and livestock being the most traded) (USAID, 2010)
  • 40. NSSP Report 11 Profile of West African countries Countries Population Food supply Food insecurity Stunting Poverty (millions) (kcal/cap/day) (% of pop) (% of children) (% of pop) Benin 9.4 2,510 12 44.7 39.0 Burkina Faso 17.5 2,670 8 35.1 46.4 Cape Verde 0.5 2,550 11 NA 26.6 Cote d’Ivoire 20.6 2,510 14 39.0 42.7 Gambia 1.8 2,350 19 27.6 58.0 Ghana 25.5 2,850 5 28.6 28.5 Guinea 10.5 2,530 16 39.3 53.0 Guinea-Bissau 1.6 2,288 22 28.1 64.7 Liberia 4.2 2,160 32 39.4 63.8 Mali 16.3 2,580 12 38.5 47.4 Niger 16.6 2,310 16 54.8 59.5 Nigeria 166.6 2,710 6 41.0 54.7 Senegal 13.1 2,320 19 20.1 50.8 Sierra Leone 6.1 2,130 35 37.4 66.4 Togo 6.3 2,150 30 26.9 61.7 West Africa 317 2,441.2 17.1 40.5 50.8 Ref. year 2012 2006/07 2008 2010 2009 Source: UNDP, 2012 Africa Human Development Report
  • 41. NSSP Report 11  In summary ………..  Dietary energy supply (DES) has increased in WA from about 2,000 kcal/capita/day in 1980s to 2,440 kcal/capita/day in 2007 • The increase is more in the coastal zone than in the sahelian zone • Protein availability also increase from 45g to 50g per capita/day • Diet quality and diversity has not improve proportionally • Child malnutrition has actually increase (UNDP, 2012)  Prevalence of undernourishment also declines from 22.1% of the population in 2004/05 to 17.1% in 2008 (UNDP, 2012) • In SSA the prevalence has fallen from 27.2% to 26.5% • Region may not reach the MDG target if prevailing trends persist  Despite improvement, challenges still persist • Conflict in northern Mali • Flooding in Nigeria, Benin has affected more than 1.5 million people • Desert locust in Niger and Mali
  • 42. NSSP Report 11  Significant of Nigeria’s economy in West Africa sub-region  Largest economy in WA and second largest in Africa • Account for approximately 53% of the population and over 50% of the regional gross domestic product (GDS, 2010)  Largest producer of major agricultural products in the region • Responsible for 50-60% of total regional cereals production (GDS, 2010)  Largest oil producer, followed by Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Ghana • Nigeria accounts for 86% of total WA oil production (OECD, 2009) • Largest combined oil and gas reserves in WA and Africa  Provides fuel, electricity and gas to countries in the sub-region • About 80% of fuel consume in Benin is from Nigeria (IMF, 2012) • Supply gas to Ghana • Supply electricity to Niger • 5% of Nigeria oil is exported to WA countries (OECD, 2009)
  • 43. NSSP Report 11  Agricultural potentials of Nigeria  Agricultural land area of 79 million hectares • 32 million hectares under cultivation • 30% of arable land in WA is found in Nigeria (GDS, 2010) • 3.14 million hectares of potential irrigable land (Ruma, 2009) • 5-8 million hectares of fadama  Adequate supply of water • 267 billion cubic meters of surface water (Ruma, 2009) • 57.9 billion cubic meters of underground water (Ruma, 2009) • Annual rainfall ranging from 300mm to 4,000mm
  • 44. NSSP Report 11  Agricultural potentials of Nigeria  Availability of labour • Population of 166 million (2012 estimates) • Close to 70% of the population engage in agriculture  Availability and supply of other inputs • 30,000 tractors available in the country • To be increased by 10,000 tractors per annum (Ruma, 2009) • 70% of tractors in WA countries are in Nigeria (GDS, 2010) • One extension agent per 10,000 farmers (Ruma, 2009) • Average fertilizer demand of 3 million tons per year • Establishment of 774 agro service centres (1 stop shop for farmers) • 4% of bank credit lending go to agric sector (2007)
  • 45. NSSP Report 11  Current agricultural production level in Nigeria  Output of major staple crops has continue to increase • Total output and index of production of staples have continue to increase Commodities Output in 1000 tons Percent change 1990 2006 Maize 5768 11005 90.7 Millet 5136 7845 52.7 Sorghum 4185 11239 168.5 Rice 2500 4169 66.7 Wheat 554 15 -97.2 Beans 1354 4739 250 Cassava 19043 38254 100.8 Yam 13624 30188 121.5 Cocoyam 731 2633 260.1 Plantain 1215 1317 83.9 Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2007
  • 46. NSSP Report 11 Total output of major staple agricultural commodities in Nigeria, 1970-2006 160000 Output of agricultural commodities (1000 tonnes) 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 Year Source: FAOSTAT
  • 47. NSSP Report 11 Index of production of staples, livestock and fishery in Nigeria (1999 = 100) 300 250 Index of staples, livestock and fishery output 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year STAPLES LIVESTOCK FISHERY Source: FAOSTAT
  • 48. NSSP Report 11  Current agricultural production level in Nigeria  Area under cultivation and productivity of major staple crops has increase Commodities Area under cultivation Yield (t/ha) Total output (1000 ha) (1000 tons) Maize 4,460 1.59 7,091 Rice 2,131 1.97 4,200 Cassava 3,261 15.0 48,915 Wheat 150 1.09 163 Millet - 1.3 7,700 Tomato 305 8 2,440 Sugar Cane 296 17.9 5322 Source: FMAWR, 2009
  • 49. NSSP Report 11  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria  Agriculture  Relative share of Nigeria’s agricultural production in the ECOWAS sub-region and implication for food security • Largest producer of staple crops in WA (GDS, 2010) • Largest producer of Cassava in the World and second largest producer of Sweet Potatoes (Eboh et al., 2004) • Account for 51% of total food supply in WA (FAOSTAT) • Root and tuber output was 89 million tons in 2008 (69% of WA total) • Account for 53% of Maize, 48% of Rice, 69% of Millet and 58% of Cowpea regional production (GDS, 2010) • Livestock production in Nigeria is 36% of total for the region  Total food output in Nigeria and WA followed similar trend • Nigerian agriculture is a major component of regional agriculture? • Food output in Nigeria is one of the drivers of WA food security?
  • 50. NSSP Report 11 West African countries that rank first in average yield, output and cultivated area of selected food crops, 1980-2002 Crops Average yield Production output Cultivated area Beans Mauritania Cote d’Ivoire Guinea Banana Cape Verde Benin Togo Cassava Nigeria Nigeria Nigeria Rice Nigeria Nigeria Nigeria Yam Nigeria Benin Nigeria Millet Nigeria Nigeria Niger Maize Gambia Nigeria Nigeria Groundnut Gambia Nigeria Nigeria Sorghum Nigeria Nigeria Nigeria Plantain Ghana Nigeria Cote d’Ivoire Source: Computed from FAOSTAT
  • 51. NSSP Report 11 Total food output in Nigeria and West Africa, 1970-2007 400000 350000 Total food output (1000 tonnes) 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 NIGERIA Year WEST AFRICA Source: FAOSTAT
  • 52. NSSP Report 11  Agriculture  Contribution of Nigeria’s agricultural production to regional food security • During the 2005 food crisis, Nigeria supplies 60-70% of Niger’s grain import (Diao, 2010), which help to improve food availability in the country • 80-100 % of markets in Niger are supplied dry grains from Nigeria every week (FEWSNET, 2010) • Food produce from Nigeria are exported and sold in markets in Benin, Mali and Ghana (GDS, 2010) • Nigeria herself is a net importer of food such as rice, wheat, meat sugar, milk • Many of the countries in WA obtain part of their food import from Nigeria • Larger proportion of this food import are smuggled and unaccounted for, example include grain, garri and yam (GDS, 2010) • There is re-exportation of food from Nigeria to WA countries, which has contributed to food availability in those countries, e.g. Benin, Ghana (GDS, 2010)
  • 53. NSSP Report 11  Agriculture  Role of Nigeria in ECOWAS regional agricultural policy (ECOWAP) • Nigeria supported the establishment of ECOWAP as a regional policy framework for agriculture and food security in 2005 • ECOWAP proposes a common agricultural policy in WA countries • Aims to improve productivity and competitiveness of agriculture in WA • Implement trade regimes within the region and between the region and outsider • Nigeria facilitated the signing of ECOWAP/CAADP agreement in 2009, when the country is holding the chairmanship of ECOWAS • Nigeria facilitated the decision by ECOWAS to establish the regional programme for food security (RPFS) as a component of ECOWAP • Based on the success of the Nigeria’s special programmes for food security (SPFS) (Ruma, 2009)
  • 54. NSSP Report 11  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria  Intra-regional trade  Role of Nigeria in intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities • Promote intra-regional trade in ECOWAS countries • 5% of Nigeria export is to WA countries and 2% of import is from WA countries • Important for cross-border trade in agricultural commodities (GTZ, 2010) • Participate in more than 60% of intra-regional trade involving mostly agricultural commodities • Level of intra-regional trade is still low with export and import within the region making up 8.4 and 16.7% respectively of the total value of regional export and import • Adopted trade liberalization in 2004 • Facilitate access to agricultural commodities through the cross-border trade (GDS, 2010) • Net supplier of millet, sorghum, maize to Niger, Chad and Cameroun (GDS, 2010)
  • 55. NSSP Report 11  Intra-regional trade  Role of Nigeria in regional trade integration • Major supporter of the ECOWAS common currency • Reduced her protectionist trade policy and adopted the ECOWAS common external tariff (CET) regime • Instrumental to the negotiation of economic partnership agreement (EPA) with the EU in 2007 (GDS, 2010) • Nigeria Banks providing financial services in WA countries e.g. Ghana, Liberia
  • 56. NSSP Report 11  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria  Agricultural research and development  Role of Nigeria in regional agricultural research and development • Promotion of agricultural R&D • Has the largest R&D in WA in terms of investment and number of researchers • Investment in R&D doubled from 12 million naira in 2000 to 24 million naira in 2008 (Flaherty et al., 2010) • Nigeria has some of the best agricultural universities and research institutes in the WA region • Between 2000 and 2008, research capacity increased from 1,300 to more than 2,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) researchers • Agricultural R&D in Nigeria is primarily funded by government and donor • Mainly focus on crops and livestock improvement, with cassava and poultry being the most heavily researched components (Flaherty et al., 2010)
  • 57. NSSP Report 11  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria  Peace and security  Role of Nigeria in regional peace and security • Maintenance of peace and security in the region • Leading contributor to ECOMOG intervention force to monitor ceasefire in conflict- stricken countries (GDS, 2010) • Provide support for the establishment of AU parliament and the court of justice • Maintain bilateral agreement for maritime and border security e.g. with Benin • Resolution of conflicts in the region • Mediate and facilitate conflict resolution in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire • Participate in UN peace keeping operation even beyond WA region e.g. in Sudan, Chad, Somalia, Angola and Congo (Okunnu, 2010)
  • 58. NSSP Report 11  Drivers of food security in West Africa and the role of Nigeria  Technology transfer  Role of Nigeria in technology transfer • Deployment of Technical Aid Corps • Agricultural experts are deployed to countries in WA to assist in capacity building for improve agricultural production
  • 59. NSSP Report 11  Conclusion  At the regional level, agriculture, trade, peace and security, R&D and technology are the main drivers of food security and in these sectors, Nigeria has the greatest potential to contribute to increase food security  Agriculture will guarantee food availability  Intra-regional trade can enhances food accessibility  Agricultural R&D can improves yield and increase food availability  Peace and security can ensure stability of food supplies  Implication is that Nigeria’s agricultural production has the greatest potentials to contribute to food security through intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities  Largest producer and marketer of agricultural commodities in WA
  • 60. NSSP Report 11 What should be done………..  Support Nigeria’s effort to increase the production of key agricultural commodities such as cereals, root and tuber where the country has comparative advantage • Development of smallholder agriculture • Intensify agricultural R&D to improve yield • Investment in rural infrastructure and storage facilities • Input subsidies for farmers  Strengthen regional integration in trade especially in agricultural commodities • Remove barriers to trade and ensure free movement of goods and people • Harmonization of tariffs to the ECOWAS common external tariff • Single currency should be pursued more vigorously like in the EU
  • 61. NSSP Report 11 Thank you for your attention
  • 62. Making micronutrients accessible in Nigeria through biofortification of staple crops Paul Ilona, Country Manager - Nigeria
  • 63. Background • The Copenhagen Consensus – 2008 reviewed and identified the best ways to solve the world’s biggest problems • Of the top 10 solutions 5 are focussed on reducing malnutrition • Biofortification is one of such interventions. It ranked 5th along with supplementation (1st) and Fortification (2nd) This is an acknowledgement of a problem that is so widespread, needing more than one set of solutions or interventions to make impact.
  • 64. What constitutes malnutrition? Inadequate intake of food nutrients required by the body cells to function properly: Macronutrients • Carbohydrate • Protein • Fat Micronutrients • Vitamins (A, B, C etc) • Minerals (Fe, Zn etc)
  • 65. Malnutrition: a contributory cause of half of under-five deaths in Nigeria • Malnutrition and nutrition related diseases continue to be problems of 2% public health importance in Nigeria Neonatal 10% 3% 24% Malaria • Nutrition should be considered a 11% Malnutrition Pneumonia critical component of National development which cuts across many Diarrhoea sectors 53% Measles 13% 20% Others • Malnutrition slows economic growth 17% HIV/AIDS and perpetuates poverty through Injuries direct losses in productivity from poor physical status; indirect losses from poor cognitive function and deficits in Wasting and vitamin A deficiency schooling; and losses owing to increase substantially the risk of dying from the listed conditions. increased health care costs.
  • 66. Status of micronutrient deficiency in Nigeria Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) Iodine deficiency (IDD) - 23% among children < 5 yrs - 13% among children < 5 yrs - 10% among pregnant women - 13% among mothers - 13% among nursing mothers - 19% among pregnant women Iron Deficiency Anaemia (IDA) Zinc Deficiency - 34% among u-5 children - 20% among u-5 children - 24% among mothers - 28% among mothers - 48% among pregnant women - 44% among pregnant women
  • 67. Status of Malnutrition in Nigeria by region
  • 68. Why the attention on Vit A? Importance Consequences • Vision (night, day, colour) • Blindness • Epithelial cell integrity • Preventable illness against infections • Stunted growth • Immune response • Lower cognitive ability • Red Blood Cell Production • Reduced ability to work • Skeletal growth • Loss in GDP • Embryogenesis and fetal • Premature death development A weak and malnourished labour force will contribute less to ATA in Nigeria
  • 69. Strategies employed to fight deficiency Commercial Fortification
  • 70. What is biofortification? Biofortification is the process of breeding food crops that are rich in bioavailable micronutrients such as vitamin A, Iron and Zinc
  • 71. Targeted crops to deliver micronutrients Target Micro-N Target Release date Target Country Rice Zinc 2013 Bangladesh / India Wheat Zinc 2013 India / Pakistan Millet Iron 2012 India Bean Iron 2012 Rwanda / DRC Maize Vit A 2012 Zambia / Nigeria Cassava Vit A 2011 Nigeria / DRC Sweet P Vit A 2007 Uganda / Moz / Nig?
  • 72. Will Biofortification Work? • Can breeding increase nutrient levels enough to improve human nutrition? • Will the extra nutrients be bioavailable at sufficient levels to improve micronutrient status? • Will farmers adopt and consumers buy/eat in sufficient quantities?
  • 73. Progress in meeting targets Three Vit A cassava varieties were released in Nig in 2011 (1) UMUCASS 36 (2) UMUCASS 37 (3) UMUCASS 38 7 – 8 u/g of TCC
  • 74. Progress in meeting targets 7 – 8 u/g of TCC Vitamin A maize released in July 2012
  • 75. Next wave of imp. Vit A Cas varieties and target levels 2015 ??? TMS 2013 07/0593, NR 07/0220 TMS 01/1368, TMS 2011 01/1412, TMS 01/1371 2008 TMS 96/1089A <2007 TMS 30572 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Total carotene content (ug/g) FW
  • 76. Bioavailability of vitamin A in cassava Comparatively higher than in other crops (average of 3-5 units = 1 retinol) 90 80 70 60 Retention (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Boiled Fried Gari Fufu
  • 77. Consumer acceptance study • This study investigated consumer acceptance of biofortified gari from two yellow cassava varieties (TMS 01/1368 and TMS 01/1371) vs local varieties in Oyo and Imo states • Consumer acceptance investigated in terms of – Sensory (organoleptic) evaluation – Economic valuation (willingness to pay) • Some consumers accepted yellow cassava varieties only after receiving information on their nutritional benefits while others accepted these varieties even without any information – Information was received as a simulated radio message in local languages. – This message explained the importance of Vitamin A for family health and that yellow cassava contained Vitamin A
  • 78. Ex ante cost-effectiveness study • This study estimated the costs and potential benefits of biofortification of cassava with vitamin A in Nigeria • Benefits of biofortification were estimated in terms of the reduction in Disability Adjust Life Years (DALY) burden of vitamin A deficiency • Cost per DALY averted as a result of biofortification of cassava with Vitamin A in Nigeria range from $8 in optimistic scenario to $137 in pessimistic scenario • According to the World Bank (World Development Report, 1993), public health interventions costing less than $196 per DALY averted (in 2004 dollars) are highly cost effective. • Therefore even in the pessimistic scenario, biofortification is a cost-effective public health intervention for combatting vitamin A deficiency in Nigeria
  • 79. Multiplication and dissemination of stems Over 500 ha planted in 2012 100,000 households to receive planting materials in 2013
  • 81. Conclusion • Rural health is very important if agriculture is to continue to contribute to GDP • Agriculture is fundamental for good health through the production of more nutritious foods • Biofortification will make agriculture deliver necessary nutrients naturally through the foods we eat, more cost efficiently and sustainably • Therefore agriculture and health policies should not be treated in isolation • Relevant policies in agriculture, health and perhaps education should be analysed to create synergies

Editor's Notes

  1. Wealth is the value of all natural, physical and financial assets owned by a household, reduced by its liabilitiesCapturing wealth is not easily done directly
  2. This study is done in collaboration with OAU, NRCRI and Delhi School of EconomicsReferenceOparinde, A., A. Banerji, E. Birol, P. Ilona, S. Bamire and G.Asumugha, 2012. “Consumer Acceptance of Biofortified (Yellow) Cassava in Imo and Oyo States, Nigeria: Preliminary Findings”, Unpublished project report
  3. ReferenceMeenakshi J.V., J. Nancy, V. Manyong, H. De Groote, J. Javelosa, D. Yanggen, F. Naher, J. Garcia, C. Gonzales, and E. Meng. 2010. “How Cost-Effective is Biofortification in Combating Micronutrient Malnutrition? An ex ante Assessment.” World Development 38(1): 64–75.