Oecd interim economic ocde outlook march 2017 embargo (3)Daniel BASTIEN
Global GDP growth is projected to modestly increase to around 3.5% in 2018, boosted by fiscal initiatives. However, disconnects between financial markets and fundamentals, potential market volatility, financial vulnerabilities, and policy uncertainties could derail the modest recovery. Vulnerabilities remain from high debt levels, rising house prices, and non-performing loans. Risks are also high for emerging markets from factors like rising corporate debt and vulnerability to external shocks. Stronger growth would enhance resilience, but policy uncertainty and potential changes to trade policy pose ongoing risks.
- The document summarizes major market developments in June 2011, including disappointing US economic data and European sovereign debt issues that dampened investor confidence and sparked an equity market pullback.
- Key factors that contributed to the market downturn included weak economic data from the US and Europe, as well as ongoing concerns about European sovereign debt and the Greek debt crisis.
- The resource-heavy Canadian market, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite, underperformed other markets in June due to its exposure to declining commodity prices. Energy and materials sectors saw some of the largest declines.
The FOMC minutes revealed disagreement among members about whether to raise rates in September. This uncertainty is causing volatility in markets. While some signals point to a rate hike, others suggest the Fed may pause due to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and its potential impact on the US. Commodities have continued declining, suggesting weakness in the global economy. The Fed faces challenges in responding to economic troubles abroad while the US risks being impacted as well.
- The document analyzes global economic growth trends and forecasts from 2008-2017. It summarizes The World Bank's forecast of moderate global GDP growth rising to 3.0% in 2015 and averaging 3.3% through 2017.
- The strategist argues The World Bank is overly optimistic given factors like China's economic slowdown and the end of the commodity super cycle. Slow global growth is expected to continue in the near future.
- Key themes discussed include diverging economic policies driving US dollar strength and deflation, China's transition from manufacturing to services, and tailwinds for short-term US growth amid a challenging global environment.
Global Research
1) Global rebalancing will weigh on risk assets like equities over the coming years as current account imbalances continue to narrow.
2) European and Asian equities excluding Japan are preferred to US equities for 2016.
3) Overweight defensive equity sectors, underweight government bonds, and prefer investment grade over high yield credit.
The document provides an economic update from the Young Fabians in August 2019. It summarizes recent UK economic developments, including GDP contracting in Q2 2019 for the first time since 2012, a weakening housing market, and slowing global growth due to trade wars. It then looks forward, noting potential GDP recovery in Q3 but continued trade tensions. Charts show declining business and consumer confidence, falling stock markets, and downgraded GDP and higher unemployment forecasts by the IMF and YFEF compared to other institutions.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
Oecd interim economic ocde outlook march 2017 embargo (3)Daniel BASTIEN
Global GDP growth is projected to modestly increase to around 3.5% in 2018, boosted by fiscal initiatives. However, disconnects between financial markets and fundamentals, potential market volatility, financial vulnerabilities, and policy uncertainties could derail the modest recovery. Vulnerabilities remain from high debt levels, rising house prices, and non-performing loans. Risks are also high for emerging markets from factors like rising corporate debt and vulnerability to external shocks. Stronger growth would enhance resilience, but policy uncertainty and potential changes to trade policy pose ongoing risks.
- The document summarizes major market developments in June 2011, including disappointing US economic data and European sovereign debt issues that dampened investor confidence and sparked an equity market pullback.
- Key factors that contributed to the market downturn included weak economic data from the US and Europe, as well as ongoing concerns about European sovereign debt and the Greek debt crisis.
- The resource-heavy Canadian market, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite, underperformed other markets in June due to its exposure to declining commodity prices. Energy and materials sectors saw some of the largest declines.
The FOMC minutes revealed disagreement among members about whether to raise rates in September. This uncertainty is causing volatility in markets. While some signals point to a rate hike, others suggest the Fed may pause due to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and its potential impact on the US. Commodities have continued declining, suggesting weakness in the global economy. The Fed faces challenges in responding to economic troubles abroad while the US risks being impacted as well.
- The document analyzes global economic growth trends and forecasts from 2008-2017. It summarizes The World Bank's forecast of moderate global GDP growth rising to 3.0% in 2015 and averaging 3.3% through 2017.
- The strategist argues The World Bank is overly optimistic given factors like China's economic slowdown and the end of the commodity super cycle. Slow global growth is expected to continue in the near future.
- Key themes discussed include diverging economic policies driving US dollar strength and deflation, China's transition from manufacturing to services, and tailwinds for short-term US growth amid a challenging global environment.
Global Research
1) Global rebalancing will weigh on risk assets like equities over the coming years as current account imbalances continue to narrow.
2) European and Asian equities excluding Japan are preferred to US equities for 2016.
3) Overweight defensive equity sectors, underweight government bonds, and prefer investment grade over high yield credit.
The document provides an economic update from the Young Fabians in August 2019. It summarizes recent UK economic developments, including GDP contracting in Q2 2019 for the first time since 2012, a weakening housing market, and slowing global growth due to trade wars. It then looks forward, noting potential GDP recovery in Q3 but continued trade tensions. Charts show declining business and consumer confidence, falling stock markets, and downgraded GDP and higher unemployment forecasts by the IMF and YFEF compared to other institutions.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
From the BPV Capital Management investment team comes our most recent update on capital markets. In this issue, we examine the Brexit vote and global uncertainty and market volatility as a result of that vote.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
The document provides a quarterly review by Seaport Investment Management. It summarizes the volatile market conditions in Q1 2016, with global equities rebounding from losses to end barely positive. It discusses ongoing economic slowing and downward revisions to growth forecasts. Seaport's portfolio returned 2.2% in Q1 through a defensive structure that has buffered volatility while providing stable income. The portfolio remains defensively positioned across asset classes like equity, credit, and mortgage to balance upside potential with downside protection.
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
2017 Market Outlook - Global Fixed IncomeT. Rowe Price
Portfolio Manager Quentin Fitzsimmons discusses his perspective on the current global fixed income environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
China data is set to drive risk appetite this weekHantec Markets
We could begin to learn a lot more this week about the current outlook for the global economy as there is a whole raft of economic data points out of China to drive risk appetite as they will paint a picture of how the economic re-balancing of the world’s second largest economy is progressing.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
2017 Market Outlook - International Equity T. Rowe Price
Our Head of International Equity, Chris Alderson, discusses his perspective on the current global equity environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
1) The document provides an outlook and asset allocation for 2013, noting that global GDP growth is expected to be similar to 2012 while central banks continue quantitative easing.
2) Quantitative easing is expected to be positive for equities, real estate, and commodities while keeping government bond yields low.
3) In the US, growth is forecast at around 2% as the private sector offsets government contraction, while the Fed continues bond purchases.
4) The Eurozone is expected to see modest recovery in 2013 led by Germany and France, while southern Europe continues to contract amid austerity and high financing costs.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
The document provides an overview of India's economic growth and business opportunities. It discusses how India has transformed from a mixed economy after independence in 1947 to becoming one of the fastest growing free market democracies today. Several statistics are presented showing India's strong GDP growth, increasing foreign investments and exports, and potential to become the third largest economy globally by 2032. Various Indian and international companies that have found success leveraging opportunities in India are highlighted.
US inflation in focus with bond markets increasingly keyHantec Markets
There has been a significant shift in the outlook on bond markets and this is impacting across asset classes. How this plays out in the coming days could be key for the medium term outlook. Focus is on US inflation data this week. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. It discusses recent volatility in the bond markets, particularly the German bund market, and provides Fasanara Capital's medium and long-term views. In the medium term, they expect bund yields to fall further, European government bond spreads to tighten, and European equities to rise. In the long term, they believe deflationary trends will continue in Europe and central banks will need to continue monetary stimulus to prevent economic deterioration, which could eventually lead to a break in the euro currency peg.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentasIgnacio Jimenez
The global economy has seen sluggish growth in 2015 as emerging markets struggle. Global growth is projected to be just 2.5% in 2015 and modestly increase to 2.9% in 2016, below historical averages. Advanced economies are doing relatively well, while emerging markets face headwinds from falling commodity prices, China's economic slowdown, and anticipated higher US interest rates. Global trade growth has also been disappointing and is expected to be around 1% in 2015 before a slight pickup in 2016. China now accounts for 18% of global GDP, making its economic performance a dominant factor for global growth.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
From the BPV Capital Management investment team comes our most recent update on capital markets. In this issue, we examine the Brexit vote and global uncertainty and market volatility as a result of that vote.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
The document provides a quarterly review by Seaport Investment Management. It summarizes the volatile market conditions in Q1 2016, with global equities rebounding from losses to end barely positive. It discusses ongoing economic slowing and downward revisions to growth forecasts. Seaport's portfolio returned 2.2% in Q1 through a defensive structure that has buffered volatility while providing stable income. The portfolio remains defensively positioned across asset classes like equity, credit, and mortgage to balance upside potential with downside protection.
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
2017 Market Outlook - Global Fixed IncomeT. Rowe Price
Portfolio Manager Quentin Fitzsimmons discusses his perspective on the current global fixed income environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
China data is set to drive risk appetite this weekHantec Markets
We could begin to learn a lot more this week about the current outlook for the global economy as there is a whole raft of economic data points out of China to drive risk appetite as they will paint a picture of how the economic re-balancing of the world’s second largest economy is progressing.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
2017 Market Outlook - International Equity T. Rowe Price
Our Head of International Equity, Chris Alderson, discusses his perspective on the current global equity environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
1) The document provides an outlook and asset allocation for 2013, noting that global GDP growth is expected to be similar to 2012 while central banks continue quantitative easing.
2) Quantitative easing is expected to be positive for equities, real estate, and commodities while keeping government bond yields low.
3) In the US, growth is forecast at around 2% as the private sector offsets government contraction, while the Fed continues bond purchases.
4) The Eurozone is expected to see modest recovery in 2013 led by Germany and France, while southern Europe continues to contract amid austerity and high financing costs.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
The document provides an overview of India's economic growth and business opportunities. It discusses how India has transformed from a mixed economy after independence in 1947 to becoming one of the fastest growing free market democracies today. Several statistics are presented showing India's strong GDP growth, increasing foreign investments and exports, and potential to become the third largest economy globally by 2032. Various Indian and international companies that have found success leveraging opportunities in India are highlighted.
US inflation in focus with bond markets increasingly keyHantec Markets
There has been a significant shift in the outlook on bond markets and this is impacting across asset classes. How this plays out in the coming days could be key for the medium term outlook. Focus is on US inflation data this week. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. It discusses recent volatility in the bond markets, particularly the German bund market, and provides Fasanara Capital's medium and long-term views. In the medium term, they expect bund yields to fall further, European government bond spreads to tighten, and European equities to rise. In the long term, they believe deflationary trends will continue in Europe and central banks will need to continue monetary stimulus to prevent economic deterioration, which could eventually lead to a break in the euro currency peg.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentasIgnacio Jimenez
The global economy has seen sluggish growth in 2015 as emerging markets struggle. Global growth is projected to be just 2.5% in 2015 and modestly increase to 2.9% in 2016, below historical averages. Advanced economies are doing relatively well, while emerging markets face headwinds from falling commodity prices, China's economic slowdown, and anticipated higher US interest rates. Global trade growth has also been disappointing and is expected to be around 1% in 2015 before a slight pickup in 2016. China now accounts for 18% of global GDP, making its economic performance a dominant factor for global growth.
The document discusses the shift in global economic power from developed to emerging markets. It notes that emerging markets now make up 24% of global equity market capitalization, attracted by higher growth prospects. Developed nations face decades of low growth and high debt levels from stimulus measures. Emerging economies like China, India, Brazil are seen as the next generation of growth engines, with investors pouring money into these markets. Going forward, emerging markets will play a more prominent role in the global economy and its management.
The document discusses China's growing dominance over the global economic stage and the impact of China's economic slowdown and currency depreciation. It notes that China's economic troubles in 2015 caused stock market declines, currency volatility, and pressure on commodity exporters around the world. The rest of the global economy will continue to feel significant impacts even as China's economy gradually slows in the coming years. With China's increasing size in the global economy, its health will be a major determinant of overall global economic growth and conditions over the coming decades.
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
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MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
This document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2007-2008 and its impacts. It provides background on how the crisis started with the US housing market collapse and spread globally. It then summarizes recent news headlines reflecting ongoing issues and debates around global economic recovery efforts. Charts on international trade flows and GDP statistics by country are also presented.
The document discusses the challenges governments face in withdrawing fiscal and monetary stimulus programs as economic recovery takes hold. It notes that withdrawing support too soon could undermine the recovery, but waiting too long risks unsustainable debt levels and inflation. Most developed nations will likely pursue a gradual tightening over the next year or two. Asia is already beginning to tighten policies as some countries see strong growth return. Overall recovery in 2010 may slow as liquidity declines, but the foundations for rising asset prices remain in place, leaving the author cautiously optimistic.
The document summarizes projections from a PwC report about how the global economic order may change by 2050. Some of the key findings include:
- Emerging economies like China, India, Indonesia and others in the E7 group are projected to account for around 50% of global GDP by 2050, up from 35% currently, driven by faster growth rates compared to advanced G7 nations.
- China is projected to surpass the US as the largest economy by 2030 when measured at market exchange rates, and it already surpassed the US in 2014 when measured at purchasing power parity. India may become the 2nd largest economy by 2050.
- The top 15 fastest growing economies are all projected to
1) Global growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016, which is weak for a recovery period and low over a prolonged period.
2) Unfavorable economic fundamentals such as low productivity growth, aging populations, high debt levels, and slowing world trade contribute to weak global growth prospects.
3) Risks to the global outlook include adverse market reactions to anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes and a sharper slowdown in China that could negatively impact other emerging markets.
Vietnam's Recent Economic Development 2013Quynh LE
This report provides an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments. It summarizes that global growth is stabilizing at a moderate pace, though recovery in industrial production has been uneven across countries. Financial market conditions have improved due to monetary easing, but capital costs for developing countries are rising as risks in high-income countries recede. Inflation remains benign in most countries, prompting further monetary policy easing. Trade growth has slowed after a cyclical rebound, while most commodity prices have weakened in response to increased supply and substitution.
Investment Opportunity In Indonesia 12 November 2011Adrian Teja
This document discusses several global and Indonesian economic issues:
1) It analyzes balance sheet recessions, quantitative easing, China's role, and the risk of a US Treasury bond bubble bursting.
2) It provides an overview of Indonesia's strong GDP growth drivers like demographics and domestic demand, noting Indonesia may become a safe haven.
3) It outlines Indonesia's "hot issues" for 2012 like demographic bonuses and efficiency-driven growth supporting continued strong capital inflows.
De acuerdo con el último informe difundido por Crédito y Caución, las insolvencias de muchas de las economías europeas se mantendrán muy por encima de los niveles de 2007 en 2014 y 2015.
El panorama económico mundial se ha deteriorado en los últimos seis meses. El ritmo de crecimiento en la zona euro y China ha sido más débil de lo esperado y la intensificación de la crisis geopolíticas referentes a Rusia y al Estado Islámico en Oriente Medio han minado la confianza internacional.
The Global Economy in 2014 – 5 Key Trends - Global Perspectives White Paper -...GECKO Governance
Every year Global Perspectives publishes its annual white paper covering the 5 keys trends we see impacting the global economy in the year ahead.
This year we will look the major global economies and examine the major trends that will influence them over the next twelve months.
Sign up for all our white papers on the site or email:-
shane@globalperspectives.co.uk
Perspectivas Semanais de Mercado Fincor- Semana 15 OutubroJoão Pinto
The document provides a weekly summary of markets and economic perspectives. It discusses weakness in equity markets following the Fed's QE3 announcement, earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup, and downward revisions to global growth forecasts by the IMF. Other topics covered include industrial production in the Eurozone, China's exports, US consumer confidence reaching a 5-year high, and monetary policy decisions from central banks in Brazil, South Korea, Turkey and Japan.
The document provides an overview of recent developments in global financial markets and the world economy. Key points include:
1) Equity markets showed weakness in the past 4 weeks after the announcement of QE3, while bank stocks sold off on mixed earnings reports.
2) The IMF cut its global growth forecasts and warned of downside risks from fiscal issues in the US and a possible slowdown in China. Growth is expected to remain sluggish.
3) S&P downgraded Spain's credit rating to BBB- with a negative outlook, citing risks to growth and budget targets. Moody's is expected to announce a rating action on Spain this month.
Similar to Emerging Markets Have The Really Decoupled From The Rest Of The World (20)
Poonawalla Fincorp’s Strategy to Achieve Industry-Leading NPA Metricsshruti1menon2
Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, under the leadership of Managing Director Abhay Bhutada, has achieved industry-leading Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) below 1% and Net Non-Performing Assets (NNPA) below 0.5% as of May 31, 2024. This success is attributed to a strategic vision focusing on prudent credit policies, robust risk management, and digital transformation. Bhutada's leadership has driven the company to exceed its targets ahead of schedule, emphasizing rigorous credit assessment, advanced risk management, and enhanced collection efficiency. By prioritizing customer-centric solutions, leveraging digital innovation, and maintaining strong financial performance, Poonawalla Fincorp sets new benchmarks in the industry. With a continued focus on asset quality, digital enhancement, and exploring growth opportunities, the company is well-positioned for sustained success in the future.
5 Compelling Reasons to Invest in Cryptocurrency NowDaniel
In recent years, cryptocurrencies have emerged as more than just a niche fascination; they have become a transformative force in global finance and technology. Initially propelled by the enigmatic Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies have evolved into a diverse ecosystem of digital assets with the potential to reshape how we perceive and interact with money.
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Calculation of compliance cost in the fishing industry of Russia after extended SCM model (Veterinary and sanitary control of aquatic biological resources (ABR) - Preparation of documents, passing expertise)
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Discovering Delhi - India's Cultural Capital.pptxcosmo-soil
Delhi, the heartbeat of India, offers a rich blend of history, culture, and modernity. From iconic landmarks like the Red Fort to bustling commercial hubs and vibrant culinary scenes, Delhi's real estate landscape is dynamic and diverse. Discover the essence of India's capital, where tradition meets innovation.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Explore the world of investments with an in-depth comparison of the stock market and real estate. Understand their fundamentals, risks, returns, and diversification strategies to make informed financial decisions that align with your goals.
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideDaniel
Cryptocurrency is digital money that operates independently of a central authority, utilizing cryptography for security. Unlike traditional currencies issued by governments (fiat currencies), cryptocurrencies are decentralized and typically operate on a technology called blockchain. Each cryptocurrency transaction is recorded on a public ledger, ensuring transparency and security.
Cryptocurrencies can be used for various purposes, including online purchases, investment opportunities, and as a means of transferring value globally without the need for intermediaries like banks.
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
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2. Contents:
Preface 3
How it became omnipresent? 4
What’s up next? 5
What’s happening in Developing Economies? 6
Where are Developing Economies headed to? 8
Are they (Developing Economies) really “decoupling” or
lagging in parallel? 9
Bibliography 13
Vivek Sharma Page 2
3. Preface
Things could scarcely have looked rosier for the world economy at the start of 2007.
The Emerging Markets, led by the giants of China, India, Russia and Brazil (the BRIC
countries) had been posting 7%-10% growth rates for years. Property and stock market
booms had brought consistent growth in North America and Europe. Investment was
bringing economic development to much of the South East Asia, Middle East and Africa,
and even Japan was recovering from its deflationary times.
What difference a year makes?
The global economy was then punched back by a series of economic events that may
be setting the stage for stagflation to make a come-back. It started with the sub-prime
crisis in the US, caused by loans to risky or sub-prime mortgagees who did not have
strong credit histories. While house prices were rising there wasn’t a problem, but as
house prices slowed and then crashed to earth, default rates started to rise.
To add fuel to the fire, sub-prime loans had been packaged and re-packaged in a range
of derivative financial instruments such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). It
was not always clear what the contents CDOs consisted of, as they were combined,
sliced and re-sold between financial institutions and funds, and which in some cases
allowed risky debt such as sub-prime loans to be packaged as part of low-risk
instruments.
Vast swathes of CDO investments had to be written off, and banks became suspicious
of investment, borrowing and lending, since it was not always clear what the underlying
security was. Once banks stopped lending, the Credit Crunch hit.
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4. How it became omnipresent?
World then witnessed extraordinary scenes of government regulators in US and UK
having to help save collapsing banks in order to avert a meltdown of the financial
system, and to Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) from the developing world taking large
stakes in venerable western banks like Citibank and UBS in return for keeping them
liquid.
With house prices having fallen more than 20% in many areas of the United States,
even prime mortgage holders now find themselves with negative equity. The federal
government has been forced to step in and assume responsibility for both Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac, who between them back over half of all American mortgages.
The part II of the blow involved the rise of commodity prices. Just before the dawn of the
21st century, oil average $16 a barrel. By 2008, less than 10 years later, oil hit a high of
$146 a barrel; a stunning rise of more than 800%. From early 2007 to mid 2008 alone
the price has risen more than threefold from the mid $40s (McKinsey Quarterly).
The price of food has also started spiralling. Rice and other grain prices have doubled
from 2007 - 2008, leading to food riots in a score of developing markets. Most
agricultural and farm produce prices have been going through the roof. In fact almost all
commodities, including those used for energy, construction and consumption, have
been rising rapidly.
Price rises have been fuelled by the demands of the emerging markets, particularly the
BRIC nations, who together account for nearly 3 billion people. In order to maintain their
high rates of growth and help lift more of their populace out of poverty, they require
more and more commodities.
A similar crisis was faced in the 1970s. After a period of strong global economic growth,
when the world economy was averaging 5% a year GDP increases, the world hit supply
constraints in oil and food. For the next fifteen years, global GDP growth slowed to an
average of 3.2% per year. This became known as the stagflation era. Growth
opportunities were limited, but prices continued to rise with a continued lack of supply.
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5. What’s up next?
Reports by IMF presume that a sustained recession, frozen banks, and rising
unemployment are likely to keep the US and many other countries in recession but
projected that the global economy would experience a gradual recovery in 2010, with
growth picking up to 3 percent. However, the outlook is highly uncertain, and the timing
and pace of the recovery depend critically on strong policy actions.
Recently, World Bank in one of its quarterly economic updates (March 2009) iterated
that advanced economies (especially G8s) are suffering the deepest recession since
World War II. They are expected to contract 2.0 percent in 2009, a sharp downward
revision from the negative 0.3 percent estimate two months ago. The Bank also expects
the U.S. economy, at the center of an intensifying global financial storm, to contract 1.6
percent in 2009, sharply down from its estimate of a 0.7 percent growth issued just two
months ago (January 2009).
Although the Obama Administration is trying hard to handle things optimally but there
are numbers to tussle them stiffly. The recent US Treasury report quoted that monthly
budget deficit soared to $192.3 billion in March and is near $1 trillion just halfway
through the budget year, as costs of the financial and auto industry bailouts and the
recession mount. It also said that through the end of March, $293.4 billion had been
provided to support companies through the $700 billion bailout fund Congress passed
last October. That support has been provided primarily to banks, although insurance
giant American International Group Inc. and auto companies General Motors and
Chrysler also have received assistance.
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6. What’s happening in Developing Economies?
While all of the major advanced economies are projected to shrink in 2009 and recover
only gradually thereafter, the large emerging economies (particularly China and India)
are expected to experience only a slowdown not a contraction in 2009 and generally
retain much better medium term prospects than the advanced economies. PwC
(Pricewaterhouse Coopers; global giant in audit and advisory) projects that by 2014 the
share of emerging economies rise to just over half (50.5%) of world GDP in purchasing
power parity (PPP) terms, up from 43.7% in 2007. The PwC figures are based on
analysis of IMF data on current world GDP shares combined with the firm’s latest
medium-term growth projections.
Other notable findings from this analysis by PwC include that, by 2014:
while the US would remain the largest economy in the world, its share of global GDP at
PPPs is projected to be down from 21.3% in 2007 to 19%;
China could overtake the euro area and move into second place;
India could nudge ahead of Japan; and
The UK share of world GDP in PPP terms could fall from 3.3% in 2007 to 2.9% in 2014.
The study states some sharp slowdowns in emerging market growth in 2009, notably in
Russia and Brazil. Growth in China and India could slow to only around 5-6% in 2009,
but this is still a pretty respectable performance when contrasted with expected declines
in GDP of around 1% or more in the US, Japan and the euro area. The UK economy
could shrink by close to 2% in 2009, putting us at the bottom of the G7 league table. Of
course there are many uncertainties around any such projections, with short-term risks
still weighted to the downside for all the major economies. But the conclusion that the
emerging economies are likely to increase their weight in world GDP significantly over
the next five to six years seems relatively robust, even though they are clearly not
immune to the global downturn.
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7. World economic output shares: GDP at PPPs
Real GDP growth (main scenario)
Shares Shares Average
Major economies 2007 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011-14
US 21.30% 19.00% 1.30% -1.30% 1.30% 2.80%
Euro area 16.10% 13.90% 1.10% -0.90% 1.30% 1.90%
China 10.80% 14.70% 9.40% 6.00% 7.00% 8.50%
Japan 6.60% 5.60% 0.20% -1.10% 1.00% 1.60%
India 4.60% 5.90% 7.20% 5.50% 6.50% 7.90%
UK 3.30% 2.90% 0.90% -1.80% 0.80% 2.40%
Russia 3.20% 3.60% 6.80% 3.10% 4.50% 5.50%
Brazil 2.80% 2.90% 4.80% 2.70% 3.30% 4.20%
Mexico 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% -0.20% 1.70% 3.40%
Canada 2.00% 1.80% 0.60% -0.50% 1.50% 2.50%
Other advanced economies 7.00% 6.40% 2.20% -0.20% 1.50% 3.00%
CEE and other CIS 5.30% 5.30% 4.50% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00%
Other developing Asia 4.70% 5.30% 6.00% 3.50% 4.50% 5.50%
Middle East 3.80% 4.20% 6.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.30%
Other Western hemisphere 3.40% 3.40% 4.50% 2.50% 3.20% 3.80%
Africa 3.00% 3.30% 5.20% 3.00% 4.00% 5.30%
Advanced economies 56.30% 49.50%
Emerging economies 43.70% 50.50%
World 100% 100%
Source: PwC & IMF
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8. Where are Developing Economies headed to?
According to the ADB’s (Asian Development Bank) report on Macroeconomics of
Sustainability; growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to slow
sharply from 6.25 percent in 2008 to 3.75 percent in 2009, under quot;the drag of falling
export demand and financing, lower commodity prices, and much tighter external
financing constraints.quot; China's growth rate is expected to ease from near 9.0 percent in
2008 to around 6.7 percent in 2009.
It also mentioned that stronger economic frameworks in many emerging economies
have provided more room for policy support to growth than in the past, helping to
cushion the impact of this unprecedented external shock. Although these economies will
experience serious slowdowns, their growth is projected to remain at or above rates
seen during previous global downturns, it added.
Meanwhile, in emerging economies, despite some recent moderation, sovereign and
corporate spreads are still elevated. As economic prospects have deteriorated, equity
markets in both advanced and emerging economies have made little or no gains, and
currency markets have been volatile
All told, rapidly developing economies could spend as much as $6. 6 trillion on
infrastructure in coming years, according to Merrill Lynch estimates. Some of the
projects could be delayed or canceled as a result of the global slowdown. Regardless,
the opportunities are substantial. With more than 1.3 billion people in China, 1.1 billion
people in India, 190 million in Brazil, 140 million in Russia, 85 million in Vietnam, 71
million in Turkey—and hundreds of millions more in other rapidly developing countries—
the potential is huge, even in these tough times (World Bank Database).
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9. Are they (Developing Economies) really “decoupling” on lagging in parallel?
First, while worldwide economic growth is expected to drop from 5% in 2007 to 3% in
2009, according to International Monetary Fund projections, there is a significant
difference between projected gross domestic product quot;growthquot; in the developed
economies of the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan—all of which have already tipped
into recession—and those in the rapidly developing economies (RDEs). Economic
growth in the developed economies is expected to decline by half of a percent, while the
RDEs are expected to post an average growth rate of 6.1%. Both projections may prove
overly optimistic, but the key point is that the RDEs are expected to grow next year,
while the developed economies are not Boston Consulting Group).
Second, the global economic downturn is taking place in the new era of quot;globality,quot; with
companies everywhere competing with everyone for energy, raw materials, skilled and
unskilled workers, management talent, scientists and engineers, knowledge, financing,
customers, markets, and virtually everything else along with complex interdependent
business models. The West no longer calls all the shots.
The first major opportunity relates to cost. During these times of economic uncertainty,
businesses and consumers in the U.S. and Europe are quot;trading down,quot; choosing lower-
priced goods. A recent BCG (Boston Consulting Group) survey, for instance, found that
consumers are trading down in almost every category, from mobile phones to snack
foods.
Because of the trading-down phenomenon, companies will rely even more on RDEs,
where production costs are 20% to 30% lower than in the developed economies.
Although labor rates have increased in recent years, they are still a fraction of what they
are in Western Europe and the U.S. rising productivity, declining bulk shipping costs,
and falling currency exchange rates, particularly against the dollar, increase the RDE
cost advantage (Franklin Temple: Global Investment Scenario 2009).
The second opportunity is for global engineering and capital-goods companies to
capture business in the RDEs by focusing on their massive investments in
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10. infrastructure. China, for instance, is building upwards of 100 new airports, 186,000
miles of new roads, 75,000 miles of new railroad tracks, and may add additional
projects, according to news reports, to make up for the slowdown in consumer goods
exports. China also plans to expand port capacity by 85% between 2010 and 2020. This
creates a huge opportunity for U.S., European, and Japanese companies (Xinhua).
Similarly, India's government has plans to invest up to $460 billion on infrastructure in
the next five years. Overall, infrastructure spending in India could increase from 5% to
9% of GDP by 2012. Although not as substantial, the other two BRIC countries—Brazil
and Russia—are also planning to make hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure
investments over the next several years (The Economy Watch).
In addition to emerging markets, frontier markets also present attractive investment
opportunities. Frontier markets include economies at the lower end of the development
spectrum. They are generally smaller and less developed than other emerging markets
but have the potential to grow at a fast pace and could become tomorrow’s emerging
markets.
By offering foreign direct and/ or foreign institutional investors with the opportunity to
invest in a “younger generation of emerging markets”, frontier markets provide an
attractive investment opportunity. Many of the characteristics that have made emerging
markets fascinating to investors are now becoming increasingly evident in frontier
markets. These characteristics include: positive economic trends such as high growth,
high potential for capital market development as well as the presence of attractively
valued companies.
Given the steep market decline, investors have begun to shift their focus to the
increasingly attractive valuations in emerging markets. Many markets are trading at
single-digit price-to-earnings ratios, with many companies trading at below their net
asset value. Stock prices rebounded in December as investors sought to benefit from
the attractive investment opportunities in the asset class. As of mid-December,
emerging markets looked set to end 2008 above their year-lows.
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11. Emerging markets today are better regulated and have improved transparency. The
legal, financial and technological infrastructure in most markets is also much more
advanced. Moreover, emerging market companies have higher quality accounting
standards than in the past. Many of the emerging countries, Asian countries in
particular, have built up sizeable foreign exchange reserves and thus are better able to
withstand turbulence brought about by external forces.
The perception of risk in emerging markets is now beginning to shift as investors realise
that:
(1) Emerging markets have become net creditors with vast holdings of foreign exchange
reserves,
(2) Emerging markets continue to record much higher economic growth compared to
the developed countries and
(3) the debt levels of many emerging market countries is lower than that of developed
countries.
China now has US$1,900 billion in foreign reserves, Russia has US$437 billion, South
Korea’s total is US$200 billion, Taiwan has US$281 billion, and India has US$246
billion. Average economic growth in 2009 for emerging markets is expected to be 3.8%
compared to a 0.8% decline for developed countries. For example, while China is
expected to grow by 8.1%, the US economy is expected to contract by 0.6%. The total
debt to GDP ratio of emerging countries averages 94%, while the ratio for developed
countries is 233%. Japan’s ratio is 365%, the US is 240%, while the ratio for China is
130%, and Brazil is 90% (IMF Data).
While there has been much talk about emerging markets “decoupling” from the US
market, the reality is that, in this day and age, decoupling is not possible given the
tremendous improvements in communications, money transfers and world trade. There
has been a move in recent decades towards more intense globalization and
interdependence between world economies. But whereas in the past, the US was the
centre as the largest economy in the world, the US economy’s dominance is waning, as
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12. other economies continue to grow at much faster rates. This has especially been the
case in the emerging market countries where we are seeing new centers of economic
wealth and growth. China, Russia, Brazil and India are clear examples. Moreover, there
is a great deal of new growth taking place in the world today. Overall it cannot be ruled
out that the emerging economies are vulnerable to the global economic turmoil but
alongside their immunity; although limited; lies more in their own infrastructure
development and public consumption and spending patterns for which there needs to
be a recurring capital flow from the developed economies as well.
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13. Bibliography:
Newsletters, reports, periodicals, journals, factsheets, research papers and databases
of:
The World Bank
International Monetary Fund
Asian Development Bank
The Banker
The Economist
Pricewaterhouse Coopers
Boston Consulting Group
Franklin Templeton
Merrill Lynch
The Economy Watch
Reuters
Securities and Exchange Board of India
Center for Development Policy Research (School of Oriental and African Studies)
Xinhua (China)
The Business Week
The United States Treasury Department
McKinsey Quarterly
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