Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research team believes that as the massive El Niño weather pattern gains strength, it should become a boon to the U.S. economy, potentially adding 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter.

1. El Niño Could Add
$30 Billion to U.S. Economy
January 2016
Macroeconomic and Investment Research

2. 2/5
El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy
A strong El Niño reduces the chance of harsh winters in the
U.S., according to American Meteorological Society research.
The result has historically included lower heating costs,
increased consumer spending, reduced travel costs,
more jobs, and less storm damage.
The powerful El Niño of 1997 boosted the U.S. economy by
almost $18 billion, equivalent to 0.8% of real 4Q GDP at the
time. Our projections indicate that the current El Niño could
add $30 billion to the economy in 2015-2016.
Estimated El Niño Impact on U.S. ($ Billions)
Benefits 1997–1998 Inflation-Adjusted for 2015
Savings due to the absence of floods and Atlantic hurricanes 6.9 9.5
Savings from less Heating Costs 6.7 9.2
Increase in Consumer Spending 5.6 7.7
Reduce Operating Costs from Airlines and Ground Transportation 1.8 2.5
Income from Increased Construction and Employment 0.5 0.7
Savings from less Highway Snow Removal 0.4 0.5
Total Benefits 21.9 30.0
Losses 1997–1998 Inflation-Adjusted for 2015
Property Losses from El Niño related Storms 2.8 3.8
Agricultural Losses 0.7 1.0
Federal Government Relief 0.4 0.5
Lost sales from Snow Removal and Tourist Industry 0.2 0.3
State Assistance Costs 0.1 0.1
Total Losses 4.2 5.8
Net Benefits 17.7 24.3
U.S. Private Consumption Contribution to GDP (1950-Present) U.S. Population-weighted Average Temperature Deviation from Normal (1950-Present)
0.0%
T (Immediate ) T + 1st Quarter T + 2nd Quarter T + 3rd Quarter T + 4th Quarter
-2.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.5
1982
1997
1987
1965
1972
Year
Air Pressure Anomalies
measured by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
measured by Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
NOAAOceanic Niño Index (0.5 defined as El Niño; -0.5 defined as La Niña) NOAA Oceanic Niño Index (0.5 defined as El Niño; -0.5 defined as La Niña)
ConsumptionContributiontoGDPGrowth(QoQSAAR)
Temp.DeviationfromNormal(Fahrenheit)
Mild El Niño
(Avg.=1.9%)
Normal
(Avg.=1.8%)
La Niña
(Avg.=2.4%)
Strong El Niño
(Avg.=4.1%)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
-1.5
-2
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
62%
32%
29%
15% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
El NiñoNormalLa Niña
11/2015
0.0%
T (Immediate ) T + 1st Quarter T + 2nd Quarter T + 3rd Quarter T + 4th Quarter
-2.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.5
1982
1997
1987
1965
1972
Year
Air Pressure Anomalies
measured by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
measured by Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
NOAAOceanic Niño Index (0.5 defined as El Niño; -0.5 defined as La Niña) NOAA Oceanic Niño Index (0.5 defined as El Niño; -0.5 defined as La Niña)
ConsumptionContributiontoGDPGrowth(QoQSAAR)
Temp.DeviationfromNormal(Fahrenheit)
Mild El Niño
(Avg.=1.9%)
Normal
(Avg.=1.8%)
La Niña
(Avg.=2.4%)
Strong El Niño
(Avg.=4.1%)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
-1.5
-2
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
62%
32%
29%
15% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
El NiñoNormalLa Niña
11/2015
Source: American Meteorological Society, NOAA, Haver, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 11.30.15

3. 3/5
In the Northeast, strong El Niños reduce cold and disruptive weather and lead to better business outlook readings.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that this year’s El Niño will continue through the
Northern Hemisphere’s winter, gradually weakening through spring 2016.
What Will El Niño Do to Weather in the U.S.?
Higher Probability
of Wetter Weather
Precipitation Outlook for 12/2015-2/2016 Temperature Outlook for 12/2015-2/2016
Normal
Higher Probability
of Drier Weather
Higher Probability
of Colder Weather
Normal
Higher Probability
of Warmer Weather
Source: Bloomberg, Haver, NOAA. Data as of 11.19.15.
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1982 1997 1987 1965 1972
Consumption Capital Formation Net Exports Total GDP
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-1.5
2.6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Fahrenheit
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
T (Immediate ) T + 1st Quarter T + 2nd Quarter T + 3rd Quarter T + 4th Quarter
1982 Severity 1997 Severity 1987 Severity 1965 Severity 1972 Severity
-2.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.5
1982
1997
1987
1965
1972
Year
Air Pressure Anomalies
measured by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
measured by Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-1.5
2.6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Fahrenheit
62%
32%
29%
15% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Presence of El Niño and Winter Temperature Deviation from Average in NYC (1970-Present)
Presence of El Niño and Probability of Negative Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Readings
3 Quarters from the Start of El Niño (1970-Present)
3/5
In the Northeast, strong El Niños reduce cold and disruptive weather and lead to better business outlook readings.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that this year’s El Niño will continue through the
Northern Hemisphere’s winter, gradually weakening through spring 2016.
What El Niño Will Do to the Weather in the U.S.?
Higher Probability
of Wetter Weather
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR 12/2015-2/2016 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR 12/2015-2/2016
Normal
Higher Probability
of Drier Weather
Higher Probability
of Colder Weather
Normal
Higher Probability
of Warmer Weather
Source: Bloomberg, Haver, NOAA. Data as of 11.19.15.
Presence of El Niño and Winter Temperature Deviation from Average in NYC
(1970-Present)
Presence of El Niño and Probability of Negative Philadelphia Fed Business
Outlook Readings 3Qtrs. from the Start of El Niño (1970-Present)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1982 1997 1987 1965 1972
Consumption Capital Formation Net Exports Total GDP
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-1.5
2.6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Fahrenheit
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
T (Immediate ) T + 1st Quarter T + 2nd Quarter T + 3rd Quarter T + 4th Quarter
1982 Severity 1997 Severity 1987 Severity 1965 Severity 1972 Severity
-2.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.5
1982
1997
1987
1965
1972
Year
Air Pressure Anomalies
measured by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
measured by Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-1.5
2.6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Fahrenheit
62%
32%
29%
15% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
3/5
In the Northeast, strong El Niños reduce cold and disruptive weather and lead to better business outlook readings.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that this year’s El Niño will continue through the
Northern Hemisphere’s winter, gradually weakening through spring 2016.
What El Niño Will Do to the Weather in the U.S.?
Higher Probability
of Wetter Weather
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR 12/2015-2/2016 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR 12/2015-2/2016
Normal
Higher Probability
of Drier Weather
Higher Probability
of Colder Weather
Normal
Higher Probability
of Warmer Weather
Source: Bloomberg, Haver, NOAA. Data as of 11.19.15.
Presence of El Niño and Winter Temperature Deviation from Average in NYC
(1970-Present)
Presence of El Niño and Probability of Negative Philadelphia Fed Business
Outlook Readings 3Qtrs. from the Start of El Niño (1970-Present)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1982 1997 1987 1965 1972
Consumption Capital Formation Net Exports Total GDP
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-1.5
2.6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Fahrenheit
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
T (Immediate ) T + 1st Quarter T + 2nd Quarter T + 3rd Quarter T + 4th Quarter
1982 Severity 1997 Severity 1987 Severity 1965 Severity 1972 Severity
-2.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.5
1982
1997
1987
1965
1972
Year
Air Pressure Anomalies
measured by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
measured by Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-1.5
2.6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Strong La Nina Mild La Nina Normal Mild El Nino Strong El Nino
Fahrenheit
62%
32%
29%
15% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%

4. 4/5
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment
Research team believes that as the massive El Niño weather
pattern gains strength, it should become a boon to the U.S.
economy, potentially adding 1 percent to U.S. gross domestic
product (GDP) in the first quarter.
Milder winters resulting from the El Niño storm pattern
have historically boosted consumer spending and
manufacturing activity.
El Niño’s influence on U.S. GDP should reach its peak in the
storm cycle’s third quarter, which corresponds to the end of
2015 and into the first quarter of 2016.
Over the past five strongest El Niño weather events, the
average total shock to U.S. real GDP growth from the start of
the weather pattern to its third quarter was 1 percent, with
the largest historical shock of 1.5 percent occurring in 1982.
This El Niño is among the largest in recent decades, roughly
on par with the El Niño of 1997. Based on the economic
impact of that episode, we estimate as high as a 1 percent
boost to Q1 2016 GDP, all else equal.
How Will El Niño Impact U.S. GDP?
Mod
the
0.0%
0.4%
0.8%
1.2%
1.6%
0.2%
0.6%
1.0%
1.4%
T (Immediate ) T + 1st Quarter T + 2nd Quarter T + 3rd Quarter T + 4th Quarter
1982 Severity 1997 Severity 1987 Severity 1965 Severity 1972 Severity
-2.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.5
1982
1997
1987
1965
1972
Year
Air Pressure Anomalies
measured by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
measured by Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, IMF, NOAA, Haver, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 12.31.15.
Severe El Niño Events Shock to U.S. GDP Growth (QoQ SAAR)
Year Severity Measured by SOI
(Negative Indicates More Severe)
T
(Immediate)
T +
1st Quarter
T +
2nd Quarter
T +
3rd Quarter
T +
4th Quarter
1982 -2.3 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5%
1997 -1.6 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0%
1987 -1.1 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%
1965 -0.9 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
1972 -0.9 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
Modeled Impact of El Niño on U.S. Real GDP Growth Since the Start of El Niño
(QoQ SAAR, based on the Dallas Fed Model)

5. 5/5
This material presented herein has been prepared for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.
This material contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates,
and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not
assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
© 2016 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted by any means without the express written consent of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
Guggenheim Funds Distributors is an affiliate of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. For more information, visit guggenheiminvestments.com or call 800.345.7999.
CP-ELNINO 20336
Important Notices and Disclosures