The final estimate of 4Q 2014 real GDP put growth at 2.2% q/q saar. The Commerce Department noted new home sales rose 7.8% and durable goods orders slipped 1.4% in February. The increase in inventory was revised lower again, but that means that inventories should be less of a drag on growth for 1Q 2015. The U.S. economy continues to grow at an above-trend rate.

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Jobs
The Labor Department reported the U.S. job market added 288,000 jobs and the unemployment rate
dropped to 6.1% in June from 6.3% in May. Initial jobless claims dccreased by 11,000 to 304,000. The
Labor Department reported the four week sadkfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfamoving average was
311,500.
Inflation
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in May. The Producer Price Index had the largest increase
since January 2010, closing at 0.6% in April (+2.1% y/y). Import prices decreased at a faster rate
than expected, which could moderate inflation expectations goiasdfasdfasdfafdasdfasdfasdfng
forward.
Rates
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped. The Federal Open Market Committee announced
bond purchases have dropped to $asdfasdf35 billion from $45 billion. Monthly mortgage-backed
securities purchases will drop to $15 billion from $20 billion. The European Central Bank voted to
keep the
Growth
The Commerce Department noted whaolesale trade increased 0.7% in May 2014. The Federal Reserve
posted consumer credit increased at an
annasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfual rate of 7.5% in May, impacted by
non-revolving credit.
Profits
The second quarter earnings seasaasdfasdfaasdfasdfasfon started with the S&P 500 operating earnings
on target to be $29.24, which embodies a 10.9a% year-over-year growth increase. According to S&P
Dow Jones Indices divided net increases for U.S. domestic common stock increased $12.6 billion in
second
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 828,000 in the
week ending March 21, 2015. The four-week moving average was 297,000. The February
employment report stated nonfarm payrolls rose by 295,000 and the U.S. unemployment
rate dropped by 0.2% to 5.5%. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of
unemployed persons (8.7 million) dropped by 1.2% and 1.7 million in February.
Core CPI inflation slightly rose to 1.7% year-over-year. Headline consumer prices
increased 0.2% between Jan. and Feb., and are currently down 0.1% year-over-year.
Headline inflation was stronger primarily due to increases in very low gasoline and
energy prices. Final demand producer inflation dropped further in February (-0.7%
year-over-year), with weakness coming from the previous 10.3% slip in energy prices.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury Note yield increased 0.02% to 1.95% for the week ending
March 27, 2015. There were no policy changes in the FOMC’s March statement, but it
opened the opportunity for a rate increase this year by removing the word “patient.”
The Fed stressed a rate increase would only happen after more improvement in the
labor market and when the Committee had “reasonable confidence” inflation would hit
2% in the medium term.
Economic Snapshot
March 30, 2015
The final estimate of 4Q 2014 real GDP put growth at 2.2% q/q saar. The Commerce
Department noted new home sales rose 7.8% and durable goods orders slipped 1.4% in
February. The increase in inventory was revised lower again, but that means that
inventories should be less of a drag on growth for 1Q 2015. The U.S. economy
continues to grow at an above-trend rate.
The BEA posted corporate profits dropped 1.4% at a quarterly rate in 4Q of 2014, after
rising 3.1% in the 3Q. According to the S&P Dow Jones Indices, as of March 12, 2015,
of the 497 S&P 500 Index companies reporting 4Q earnings, 343- beat analysts’
estimates. The S&P 500 operating earnings are estimated to be $26.67 for 4Q,
representing a -5.6% year-over-year growth. Lower earnings were primarily due to low
oil prices, pension write-offs and a strong dollar.
Jobs
Inflation
Rates
Growth
Profits

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