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Economic Mobility Through
Education
SXSWedu 2015
Katie Bardaro, Lead Economist Jim Wolfston, CEO
THE AMERICAN DREAM
The promise that one can rise,
through education and hard
work, to any position in
society.
“RISE” to “POSITION”
* the promise of economic
mobility is a key incentive for
work and contribution
“…income distribution survives as one of
the most robust and important factors
associated with growth duration.”
– IMF Economists Andrew Berg and Jonathan Ostry
Source: “Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?” April 2011, International Monetary
Fund
Economic Mobility = Fewer
Recessions, Longer Recovery Periods
Do you believe the U.S. is
providing for sufficient
economic mobility?
“…the United States has both the
lowest mobility and highest
inequality among all* wealthy
democratic countries.”
– MIT Economist David Autor
*study of 13 OECD member countries for which consistent data were available
Source: “Skills, Education and the Rise of Earnings Inequality Among the ‘Other 99 Percent’” May 2014, Science
Intergenerational mobility disappearing
United States
1 in 20 Americans age 25 to 34 surpassed
the educational level of their parents.
20 Richest Nations
Average is 1 in 4.
Source: “Closing Education Gap Will Lift Economy, a Study Finds,” Feb 2015, The New York Times
Source: The Social Mobility Index – socialmobilityindex.org
Every year, 90% of the U.S. population
“transfers” $2 trillion to the top 10%.
That exceeds the trade deficit by 4x.
Source: "Capital in the 21st Century," Thomas Piketty - (trade deficit 2014 = $500 billion)
Our Biggest Economic Threat Is at
Home, Not Abroad
“The principal force for convergence
[reduction of inequality] –the diffusion of
knowledge –…depends in large part on
educational policies, access to training and
to the acquisition of appropriate skills, and
associated institutions.”
– Economist Thomas Piketty
Do you believe higher
education is driving
economic mobility?
“If the ladder of educational opportunity rises
high at the doors of some youth and scarcely
rises at the doors of others, while at the same
time formal education is made a prerequisite to
occupational and social advance, then…
…education may become the means, not of
eliminating race and class distinctions, but of
deepening and solidifying them.”
- President Harry S. Truman (1947)
Discounted Tuition
Still Out of Reach
College tuition (net
price) represents 84%
of avg. family HHI for
lowest-income students
Source: “Indicators of Higher Eduation Equity in the United
States,” 2015, The Pell Institute and Penn Ahead
“Rich kids graduate;
poor and working-class kids don’t.”
(~Paul Tough, NYT) Students from high-
income families 8x
more likely to
obtain a bachelors’
degree by age 24
than those from
low-income families
Gap is widening…
Source: “Indicators of Higher Eduation Equity in the United States,” 2015, The
Pell Institute and Penn Ahead; “Who Gets to Graduate?” May 2014, The New
York Times
Too many schools
landing in the high
debt, low ROI
quadrant
Just the Numbers
• Median net ROI (with aid)
adjusted for borrowing ¼ of
college cost = 7.9%
• Average return on university
endowment = 8.2%
Source: “College or the Stock Market?” March 2015,
PayScale College ROI Report
Qualitative
Factors
Quantitative
Factors
Social
Factors
Value of
Education
Of Course, What You Gain Is More Than
Increased Earning Potential
• Increased Knowledge
• Critical Thinking Skills
• Lifelong friendships
• Strong Career Network
• More Career Opportunities
• Increased Civic Engagement
• Better Health
• Rely Less on Gov’t Assistance
• Less Likely to be Incarcerated
• Higher Tax Revenue
• Social Mobility
• Additional Income
• Lower Unemployment
From a financial standpoint, college is a
good investment
if you graduate and if you don’t over-
extend yourself on student loans.
Those are big ifs for low-income students.
Until 2009, young adults with student loan debt
were more likely to:
• own homes
• have car loans
• have better credit scores
But now the opposite is true.
Source: “The Hefty Yoke of Student Loan Debt,” Feb 2014, The New York Times
Economic Opportunity Not Materializing
SOLUTION BRAINSTORM
What will make a
difference for low-
income students?
FOR DISCUSSION: Possible Solutions
• Eliminate tax deductibility of contributions to higher ed
unless the donation goes to admitting, advancing, and
funding students from below median income families
• Reform the Pell Grant system so that funds go only to
families below median income
• Tax inheritance to fund schooling grants to families
below the median income
• Vary tuition charges by major
• Set quotas for admission based upon family income

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Economic Mobility Through Education

  • 1. Economic Mobility Through Education SXSWedu 2015 Katie Bardaro, Lead Economist Jim Wolfston, CEO
  • 2. THE AMERICAN DREAM The promise that one can rise, through education and hard work, to any position in society.
  • 3. “RISE” to “POSITION” * the promise of economic mobility is a key incentive for work and contribution
  • 4. “…income distribution survives as one of the most robust and important factors associated with growth duration.” – IMF Economists Andrew Berg and Jonathan Ostry Source: “Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?” April 2011, International Monetary Fund Economic Mobility = Fewer Recessions, Longer Recovery Periods
  • 5. Do you believe the U.S. is providing for sufficient economic mobility?
  • 6. “…the United States has both the lowest mobility and highest inequality among all* wealthy democratic countries.” – MIT Economist David Autor *study of 13 OECD member countries for which consistent data were available Source: “Skills, Education and the Rise of Earnings Inequality Among the ‘Other 99 Percent’” May 2014, Science
  • 7. Intergenerational mobility disappearing United States 1 in 20 Americans age 25 to 34 surpassed the educational level of their parents. 20 Richest Nations Average is 1 in 4. Source: “Closing Education Gap Will Lift Economy, a Study Finds,” Feb 2015, The New York Times
  • 8. Source: The Social Mobility Index – socialmobilityindex.org
  • 9. Every year, 90% of the U.S. population “transfers” $2 trillion to the top 10%. That exceeds the trade deficit by 4x. Source: "Capital in the 21st Century," Thomas Piketty - (trade deficit 2014 = $500 billion) Our Biggest Economic Threat Is at Home, Not Abroad
  • 10. “The principal force for convergence [reduction of inequality] –the diffusion of knowledge –…depends in large part on educational policies, access to training and to the acquisition of appropriate skills, and associated institutions.” – Economist Thomas Piketty
  • 11. Do you believe higher education is driving economic mobility?
  • 12. “If the ladder of educational opportunity rises high at the doors of some youth and scarcely rises at the doors of others, while at the same time formal education is made a prerequisite to occupational and social advance, then… …education may become the means, not of eliminating race and class distinctions, but of deepening and solidifying them.” - President Harry S. Truman (1947)
  • 13. Discounted Tuition Still Out of Reach College tuition (net price) represents 84% of avg. family HHI for lowest-income students Source: “Indicators of Higher Eduation Equity in the United States,” 2015, The Pell Institute and Penn Ahead
  • 14. “Rich kids graduate; poor and working-class kids don’t.” (~Paul Tough, NYT) Students from high- income families 8x more likely to obtain a bachelors’ degree by age 24 than those from low-income families Gap is widening… Source: “Indicators of Higher Eduation Equity in the United States,” 2015, The Pell Institute and Penn Ahead; “Who Gets to Graduate?” May 2014, The New York Times
  • 15. Too many schools landing in the high debt, low ROI quadrant
  • 16. Just the Numbers • Median net ROI (with aid) adjusted for borrowing ¼ of college cost = 7.9% • Average return on university endowment = 8.2% Source: “College or the Stock Market?” March 2015, PayScale College ROI Report
  • 17. Qualitative Factors Quantitative Factors Social Factors Value of Education Of Course, What You Gain Is More Than Increased Earning Potential • Increased Knowledge • Critical Thinking Skills • Lifelong friendships • Strong Career Network • More Career Opportunities • Increased Civic Engagement • Better Health • Rely Less on Gov’t Assistance • Less Likely to be Incarcerated • Higher Tax Revenue • Social Mobility • Additional Income • Lower Unemployment
  • 18. From a financial standpoint, college is a good investment if you graduate and if you don’t over- extend yourself on student loans. Those are big ifs for low-income students.
  • 19. Until 2009, young adults with student loan debt were more likely to: • own homes • have car loans • have better credit scores But now the opposite is true. Source: “The Hefty Yoke of Student Loan Debt,” Feb 2014, The New York Times Economic Opportunity Not Materializing
  • 20. SOLUTION BRAINSTORM What will make a difference for low- income students?
  • 21. FOR DISCUSSION: Possible Solutions • Eliminate tax deductibility of contributions to higher ed unless the donation goes to admitting, advancing, and funding students from below median income families • Reform the Pell Grant system so that funds go only to families below median income • Tax inheritance to fund schooling grants to families below the median income • Vary tuition charges by major • Set quotas for admission based upon family income