I am not gonna lie but Econometrics was really my nightmare in the student life. This was the toughest subject I learned at the Faculty of Management and Tourism, Hanoi University.
Luckily, I passed all the tests :) However, don't ask me anything about it 'cause I can't remember anything.
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Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Econometrics: My nightmare
1. Nguyen Quynh Anh
Hoang Thi Ut Chinh
Mai Duc Ha
Tran Thu Huong
Pham Thanh Tung
HANOI UNIVERSITY
Faculty of Management and Tourism
ECONOMETRICS
3. INTRODUCTION
• Vietnam is a big importer (petrol, cars,
machineries, steel, etc.)
• 5 biggest import markets: China,
Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Korea
• GDP continues to grow (estimated at 8.5-
10% in 2008)
• CPI generally increases over time
• These economic elements have captured
our interest
14. CV = SE of regression / Mean dependent
variable
CV1 ( in linear model ) = 0.104807
CV2 ( in log-log model ) = 0.010144
CV3 ( in lin-log model ) = 0.132146
CV4 ( in log-lin model ) = 0.00868
The final equation
Ln^Imports = 4.047323 + 7.54E-06*GDP
+ 0.035012*CPI
15. Errors in the model
1. Multicollinearity
Ho: there is no relationship among independent variables
H1: there is relationship among independent variables
Test at α = 0.05
Fcritical = F(0.05,1,8) = 5.32
Fstatistics < Fcritical Do not reject H0
Conclusion: Not existing a relationship among independent
variables.There is no multicollinearity in our model
16.
17. 2. Heteroscedasticity
• White test with no cross term was used,
H0: Homoscedasticity
• H1: Heteroscedasticity exists
• W = 4.565952
• X2 (0.05, 4) = 9.48773
• Since W < X2 (0.05, 4)
• Do not reject Ho. So, heteroscedasticity
does not exist in this model
18.
19. 3. Autocorrelation
• The Breusch-Godfrey (BG) test was used
• Ho: no autocorrelation
• H1: autocorrelation exists.
• BG-statistic = 0.014217
• Compare it to X2 (0.05, 1) = 3.84146 (at α
= 0.05) , for BG < X2 (0.05, 1)
• Do not reject Ho. Thus, the model does
not have autocorrelation phenomenon.
20.
21. Discussion
• Our model:
Ln^Imports = 4.047323 + 7.54E-06
GDP + 0.035012 CPI
• R2= 0.975484 states that about 98% of
the variation in Imports can be
explained by variation of GDP and CPI
22. CONCLUSION
• Imports have a positive relationship with
GDP and CPI
• Apart from the two selected independent
variables, there are still other ones that
have influence on imports in Vietnam
(tariffs, barrier removal, etc.)