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2010   1   28


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•
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•

•

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CONTENTS
1.
2.
3.

4. Dynamic ARMS
5.


                  3
4
                  1
        2

       RSI MACD


    2



            5










    6
           1
    2










        7
•
•

•   ●●


•          20

•
•
         EBT (Evidence-based Trading)
                TM




                      8
9
10
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
    11
12
13
14
15
EXCEL




        16
EXCEL




        17
18
19
93.6105791505791

       0.22095741817381

                 93.641

                 90.001

       3.55597311397643

       12.6449447873233

      -1.13028828500927

     0.0790229964857671

                 14.583

                 86.383

                100.966

               24245.14

                   259




20
2009 USDJPY




              21
EXCEL

•



    •           C          Y

        •   C=a+bY
    •        y=ax+b

    •

                      22
EXCEL

 R    0.977311184421718

 R2   0.955137151195781

R2    0.95496258758176

      0.75464931815529

                   259




                                                                  F

                     1 3116.035388 3116.035388 5471.5706737 2.978E-175

                   257 146.3603675 0.569495593

                   258 3262.395755



                                        t          P-            95%         95%        95.0%        95.0%

       2.3925448588935 1.234066182 1.938749229 0.0536266382 -0.0376245 4.822714186 -0.03762447 4.822714186

      0.97466148800168 0.013176431 73.97006607 2.97783E-175 0.94871397   1.00060901 0.948713966   1.00060901




                                             23
R




24
25
26
27
28
29
(             )Universa Investments
•                                                 �




•   http://www.universa.net/

•             Universa Investments L.P. is an
    investment management firm that
    specializes in hedging tail risks for its
    clients.

•   Universa Investments L.P. is an
    investment management firm that
    specializes in protecting its clients' portfolios
    against extreme risks – i.e. universal fat tail
    risks or Black Swans

                                         30
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•

    •

        •
    •

        •

            33
•
    •



•
    •

        34
35
•

•

•


•
•

    36
37
Dynamic ARMS


   Dynamic

                  Auto Regressive Model
    ARM

                     Statistical Edge
      S



             38
Dynamic ARMS FX
•
•   24                FX

•
•
•
•    FX   24
•
               39
Dynamic ARMS FX
• GBP/JPY
• EUR/JPY
• GBP/USD

         40
41







    42



 6




      43
44
45
1.
2.
3.

4. Dynamic ARMS


                  46
Dynamic ARMS Web
•
•   URL   http://d-arms.com




                      47
•
•   Dynamic ARMS




          48
twitter




          yoshiyuki_hongo




           49
Dynamic ARMS FX
 •   GBP/JPY   102,900
 •   EUR/JPY   102,900
 •   GBP/USD   102,900
 •              260,400
 3                        20




                     50
Dynamic ARMS FX
•




                51
 Dynamic ARMS FX
      4
1.        FX
2. FX
3.                        FX
4. Dynamic ARMS FX             HP




                     52
•
•             Indepa

•     Independent Person

•
•
•   URL http://indepa.net

                            53
54
FX
●

●

●
        1           10



●
●                                        1                    0.5
                                                         /    1        100           1
                   10,000                         5,000
                            1                     20,000
    1            10,000

●
●



                                                                   8 18
                          0120-86-9686       E-mail   sts@sec.himawari-group.co.jp
                                                              150

                                             55
FX
●                 FX


●                 FX
●


●


●
●

●                                            10,000                     10,000
         10,000                20,000

●
●



                                                               8   18
                       0120-86-9686     E-mail   sts@sec.himawari-group.co.jp
                                                         150

                                        56

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