Presentation by Ms. Tran Thanh Huyen, M.Sc. (Central for Environmental Fluid Dynamic – Vietnam National University) at the Seminar Cutting Edge Hydro Software for South-East Asia, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2018. Thursday, 6 September 2018, Yogyakarta.

1. Current Situation of the Forecasting and
Early Warning Systems in Vietnam – Limitations and the
Needs for a Centralized - Integrated Forecasting System
Presenter: Tran Thanh Huyen
On behalf of Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics, CEFD, Vienam

2. CONTENTS
1. Hazards in Vietnam
2. Current situation of forecasting and early warning system
in Vietnam – Limitations and needs
3. Framework for an integrated forecasting and early warning
system
4. Challenges in system integration in Vietnam

3. Hazards in Vietnam

4. Hazards in Vietnam -
Lifetime risks to be coped with
•Most common hazards:
• River flooding
• Typhoon (av. 8 per year)
• Storm surges & inundation
• Flash flood
• Drought
• Whirlwind
• Salinity Intrusion
• Landslides
•In 10 years (2003-2013):
• 77 natural disaster
• 3000 fatalities
• 7 billion USD damage

5. Current situation of the forecasting and early warning
systems in Vietnam

6. The forecasting and early warning systems
in Vietnam at a glance
STATUS
Ca. 3000 staff, mostly observers, divided
into top-down levels as shown
in the pyramid beside
LIMITATIONS
• Observation network mostly manual; equipment partly old
• Data transmission (relatively high latency)
• Radar coverage not optimal, poor data processing
• Limited NWP capacity
• Data management fragmented
• Dissemination mostly through textual forecast bulletins
01
National
Centre
09 Regional
Centres
54 Provincial Centres

7. Main bottlenecks, weaknesses of the
Vietnam Meteorological Hydrological Administration (VMHA)
Observation
systems and stations
Transmission
Prov./Region/Central
Forecasts and
warning bulletins
Data collection
and processing
Models and
DSS
Distribution
and delivery
End Users
 Radar system needs upgrade
 Surface network too coarse
 More automated stations needed
 Lack of funds for O&M cause
unreliable network
 Insufficient reliability
 Limited bandwidth
 Too fragmented data handling
 Equipment from many different suppliers
 Many different databases
 Lack of integrated EWS software
 Enhancement of NWP and QPF needed
 More trained staff needed
 Complicated management system
 Limited resources for O&M
 Limited access to modern forecasting and
data display and management tools
Global / regional
weather models
 Dispersed / fragmented
 Manual fax and e-mail delivery
 More timely and accurate forecasts and
warnings needed
 More detailed and locally specific products
that meet specific user needs
 More access to data
 Diversification of end users needed
 Limited paying clients
Prov. / Regional / National Centers
General:
 No formalized forecast evaluation procedure
 Duplication of efforts between national, regional
and provincial centres.

8. Forecasting ranges in NWP models
Weather forecasting:
•Domain selection
•Ensembles: up to 51
•Models: WRF, COSMO, NHM, HWRF

9. Forecasting ranges in NWP models
Weather forecasting:
•Domain selection
•Ensembles: up to 51
•Models: WRF, COSMO, NHM, HWRF

10. Forecasting ranges in NWP models
Weather forecasting:
•Domain selection
•Ensembles: up to 51
•Models: WRF, COSMO, NHM, HWRF

11. What do we need?
1. More station data with
higher reliability
2. Unification of database and
data handling
3. Better management in
coordination/cooperation between
different levels of Meteo-hydro
service centres in Vietnam
4. Modern forecast display
and visual tool supporting
decision making
5. Better means of issuing and
disseminating bulletins
A comprehensive,
centralized
integrated
forecasting and
early warning
system

12. Framework for an integrated forecasting and
early warning system

13. Scheme for an integrated forecasting and early warning system

14. • Central Data Hub (CDH) receives
all observation data from the
stations automatically
• Plug-in modules for standard
format.
• Data Quality Assurance (QA)
• Data synchronisation between
Regional Centres and CDH
• Provincial and Regional Centres
run their ‘own’ hydrological
models through a Client-Server
system.
Center Data Hub (CDH)

15. Data assimilation and forecasting: IT configuration

16. Using Delft-FEWS as a forecasting sub-system
Source: C2-DV4-Package Technical Proposal
Models can be integrated: MIKE (11-NAM),
Wflow, SOBEK, etc.
Input data: NWP, Forecast, Satellites, Station
data…

17. Red River:
- MARINE
- MIKE11
Ma River: NAM
Ca River: NAM
Huong River: MARINE
Thu Bon River:
- MIKE + NAM
- WETSPA + HEC-RAS
Tra Khuc River:
- SSARR
- NAM
Se Ban: MIKE
Ba: MIKE
Srepok: MIKE
Mekong Delta: ISIS
Dinh
Hydrological models
applied for some river
basins in Vietnam

18. A Delft-FEWS example for Red river Basin

19. A Delft-FEWS example in Red river Basin

20. A Delft-FEWS example in Red river Basin

21. A DELFT-FEWS example in Red river Basin

22. A DELFT-FEWS example in Red river Basin

23. End-to-end early warning system
Central Forecasting Service
Regional Forecasting Services
Central Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention Center
Regional/local SCDPC

24. End-to-end early warning system

25. Other issues regarding system integration
• Different hard- and software solutions (inter-
operability issues), requires constant attention (ref.
Decision on System Integration)
• IT modernization requires adaptation in standard
operation procedures
• Delft-FEWS Client-Server approach needs better
explained at all levels and clear task division needed:
 Central level: Delft-FEWS O&M
 Decentral level: models O&M
• Reservoir modelling requires special attention
• Forecasters need to be trained on using the
integrated system

26. Acknowledgement
• Information of projects is provided by Dr. Marcel Marchand from Deltares,
Project manager of the World Bank 5 Project
• Technical assistance consultants of the Project: Joint-venture: Deltares,
the Netherlands; Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics, Vietnam
(CEFD); and HaskoningDHV, the Netherlands/Vietnam
• Vietnam Meteorological Hydrological Administration (VMHA)
• The DV4 contractor: Joint-venture of JBA, UK and Kister, Germany