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October 2018 (draft 3)
DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE
FOR THE PREPARATION OF DESTINATION MANAGEMENT PLANS
FOR SELECTED TOURISM DESTINATIONS OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
1. BACKGROUND
Tourism is an important contributor to KP’s economy and job creation, and the number of
domestic tourists traveling to KP keeps growing rapidly. According to the World Travel &
Tourism Council, the total contribution of travel and tourism to Pakistan’s GDP was USD
22,286.3 million, or 7.4% of GDP in 2017, and further growth for 2018 was expected to be 5.8%.
The total contribution of this sector to employment including jobs indirectly supported by the
industry was 6.5% of total employment and was expected to rise further by 2.3% in 2018 and
travel and tourism investment, 9.1% of total investments in 2017 is expected to rise by 5.2% in
2018.
With the devolution of federal tourism ministry after the passage of 18th amendment to the
constitution in 2010, the responsibility to manage and promote tourism was shifted to the
provinces. KP is blessed with diverse tourism attractions, catering to all interest types. The
province has beautiful scenic beauty including mountains, valleys, forests and rivers.
Furthermore, it also at the confluence of the world’s three highest mountain ranges, the
Himalaya, the Karakoram and the Hindukush. Moreover, the province has rich history and is
home to one of the oldest civilizations in the world with Peshawar being considered as one of the
oldest living cities in the world. The province also has rich culture and traditions which attract
hundreds of tourists every year. For adventure seekers looking for activities like mountaineering,
trekking, skiing, hunting, sport angling etc., the province offers ample opportunities.
KP’s rising interest in the sector is also evident from the fact that its expenditure in tourism
sector rose from Rs. 86.23 million in financial year 2012-13 to a massive Rs. 783.21 million in
financial year 2016-171. This increased emphasis on tourism promotion has led to an
unprecedented increase in tourist traffic in the province, resulting in rise in economic activity in
the province and creation of new employment opportunities for the local population.
KP’s government is targeting inclusive growth to ensure future with quality jobs. This requires
an appropriate, empowered and resourced system able to manage the rapid, and highly seasonal
growth in arrivals. Current developments are largely unplanned and ad-hoc and mainly demand
driven. KP province and its residence are at risk of missing the potential positive impact of
tourism through job creation, income and improved service delivery and be left with the costs of
a depredated environment, insufficient service delivery and a ruined destination image. Early
signs include traffic congestion, littering & failing waste collection, river pollution and road
degradation amongst others.
To a certain extent, KP has become a victim of its own success in tourism promotion, initial
beautification projects and subsequent growth in accommodation establishments. A critical mass
1 According to data collected from PIFRA reporting system

of tourism assets, enterprises and visitor numbers has been reached in certain areas which
requires an active intervention to ensure the tourism offering is safeguarded against over-use and
degradation. There is therefore a need for detailed tourism development & management planning
at destination area level, identifying optimum revenue opportunities from tourism and
strengthening the policies and regulations in support of a sustainable, inclusive tourism system in
KP province.
KP is facing the risk ofbecoming a low-cost destination, unable to generate sufficient revenues to
protect and develop the very natural assets on which tourism depends. Private sector investments
need to be guided towards sites & areas where sustainable growth is possible and existing
enterprise can capture higher yields/visitor by creating industry linkages, introducing (self-
guided) standards and brand recognition. The current market is controlled by the supply-side
which means that, in season, these enterprises can charge any rate they like which limits the need
for quality in service and facilities as a means of market diversification. Maximizing the number
of visitor arrivals without increasing value creation and ensuring sustainability would result in
unsustainable economic gains, as uncontrolled increase in numbers of tourists can overuse the
environment and tourism assets, without generating revenues for their protection and
conservation.
KP has the means to attract private sector investment and increase the value generated per
visitor (i.e. average daily spend per visitor multiplied by their average length of stay)
through a structured sustainable development approach. Sustainability refers to the
environmental, economic, and socio-cultural aspects of tourism development, and the need to
establish a suitable balance between these three dimensions to guarantee that a destination
continues to provide benefits in the long-term.2 A sustainable strategy would entail efforts to
increase the per tourist revenue by offering a more diverse set of higher-value, sustainable nature
activities and higher quality facilities that appeal to the middle and high-income tourists, while
also better protecting the environment and trying to increase at a controlled rate the annual
number of tourism arrivals. Sustainable tourism requires a higher level of coordination than other
industries, especially at the destination level.3
To this end, KP’s tourism sector needs to address several important constraints at
destinations. Among them: (i) limited product diversification, as the sector has not made the
transition from a town-based, seasonal tourism to a more diverse form of nature-based tourism
thereby missing-out on higher value market segments such as wellness, ecotourism, wildlife and
adventure tourism ; (ii) Weak planning and budgeting of small and medium utilities and
infrastructures related to tourism (e.g. trekking trails, small bridges, camping sites, picnic spots,
recreational parks, water, waste management and electricity) and inadequate planning and zoning
– i.e. destination planning and zoning should seek to provide for a range of experiences catering
for different market segments and consider seasonality of some KP’s destinations. (iii)
Inadequate coverage and quality of the road and air network has been a longstanding problem,
2 In recent years, sustainability has emerged as a critical concern that must be addressed in any viable tourism development
strategy. Expressed simply, sustainable tourism can be defined as “Tourism that takes full account of its current and future
economic, social and environmental impacts, addressing the needs of visitors, the industry, the environment, and host
communities”.
3 A tourism destination is a physical space with tourism attractions and resources in which a visitor spends at least one overnight.
It has physical and administrative boundaries defining its management, images and perceptions defining its market
competitiveness.

making access to many areas with tourism potential difficult. (iv) Lack of predictability of
regulatory environment for private sector development, and (v) Rigidity of regulatory limits and
authorizations to tourism activities in protected areas and forests.
2. RATIONALE
Government strategies and action plans emphasize tourism as a priority sector for private
sector development and job creation in Pakistan and KP Province. The new government has
also identified tourism as a means to revitalize economic growth and job creation, and its
gathering inputs from the provinces on the roadmap for tourism sector promotion and
development.
In this context, the World Bank Group (WBG) is supporting the Government of KP’s
commitment to accelerate growth and diversify tourism offering in priority destinations.
The WBG, pursues its mission of reducing poverty and improving people’s lives by promoting
sustainable private sector development through investment and advisory services. The WBG
support will be focused on up to 20 tourist destinations in KP. The objective would not only be
to increase the number of tourists (including high spenders) in KP, but also to improve the
quality and diversity of the tourism offering through better horizontal and vertical coordination
in tourism, improved governance at the destination level, identification and implementation of
tourism investments needs in infrastructure, e.g. roads and tourist facilities, regulatory reform for
improved sustainability, and capacity building of communities and local private sector.
3. CONSULTANCY OBJECTIVES
The purpose of the Consultancy is to to assist the Government of KP province in preparing
innovative and detailed growth visions and related investment plans and governance plans
for the rapid and sustainable development of tourism in selected priority destinations over
five years. This Consultancy will be informed by the 2018 “Tourism Sector Analysis” of the
GoKP through the ERKF project for four destinations, and: (a) carry out research and analysis
which will result in a thorough understanding of the profile of current domestic tourists in the
priority destinations (e.g. market of origin, destination preferences, length of stay, expenditure
patterns) and the key target markets for future growth, as well as diagnosing destination-specific
infrastructure and skills gaps; (b) prepare a sustainable growth vision for each priority
destinations and; (c) prepare a detailed destination investment plan for each priority destination
Deliverables of this Consultancy will help inform subsequent implementation of key
activities aimed at developing sustainable destination, notably: (i) sustainable destination
management and private sector investment (ii) promotion and marketing strategy and (iii)
budgeting and procurement of tourism-related development works, equipment, services and
training. Pre-designs and costing of identified infrastructure requirements will be carried out by
other technical specialists and are not part of this Consultancy. The resources will be made
available through pipeline World Bank project called Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Integrated Tourism
and Enterprise Development Project (KITE) to get this done. It is also expected that this phased
approach for a detailed assessment, growth vision and detailed public investment plan can be
replicated at other destinations which may not be part of these Consultancy.

The focus of the Consultancy will be on a selection of two priority tourism destinations in KP
province reflecting the regional and resource scope and in different stages of the product life
cycle currently identified as: Naran (with special emphasis on management of the Saiful Muluk
& Duduput National Parks) and Kumrat National Park (District Dir). Based on the performance
of the consultant, the same consultancy could be extended to include other destinations such as
Chitral (with special emphasis on the development of alternate tourist attractions, and
management of the tourist influx and resultant stress on three Kalash valleys that have limited
carrying capacity), , and Kalam (with special emphasis on outdoor activities such as trekking,
camping and water resort) and additional destinations (up to twenty) as identified by the
government of KP.
4. SCOPE OF WORK
The Consultancy will include the following main phased activities, whose content is described
more in detail in Annex:
Identify relevant international destination development models that reflect the resources, market
demand and patterns of travel similar to that of KP province and have shown effective
development outcomes.
Prepare a detailed Sustainable Growth Vision: A preferred growth vision for the sustainable
development will be prepared through building consensus, after presenting main options for the
sustainable growth of each destination, with (a) spatial organization of each destination and its
specific tourism areas, tour routes and itineraries, with maps, and (b) public investment need
analysis (scale and nature of transport, utilities and tourism-related infrastructures, facilities,
products and services, human resources and capacity building needed to achieve proposed
options), (c) private investment potential analysis, and (d) economic and social impact
assessment on local incomes, poverty level and shared prosperity.
Prepare a detailed Public Investment Plan: Development of detailed public investment plans,
PPP and concessions for transport and utilities infrastructure, tourism related infrastructure, as
well as investment for training and capacity building. Investments should be prioritized and
sequenced, and the investment plan will guide the work of engineering and planning specialists
to enable the pre-design and costing of the required infrastructure. The investment plan should
propose budget holders and procurement entities for each of investments. Pre-designs and
costing of infrastructure requirements will be carried out by other technical specialists and are
not part of this Consultancy.
5. METHODOLOGY
Desk research and assessment of existing development plans. Prior to field work, the
consultancy should conduct a thorough desk research of the tourism sector in KP, including
reviewing the 2018 KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA TOURISM SECTOR ANALYSIS prepared
with World Bank assistance (it covered both Naran and Kumrat), as well as other relevant
policies and plans at the national and province level and development authorities, and assess
their feasibility, results if implemented, and need for update and/or comprehensive restructuring.
Field visits and stakeholders’ consultations. In addition to desk review and data analysis, the
consultant will undertake stakeholders’ consultations, field visits, and prepare detailed maps

showing the baseline and impact of proposed development of each destination in tourism areas
within each destination. The Consultancy will provide creative assistance for the publication of
highly visual and easy to read growth vision for public dissemination.
Identification of successful tourism models in diversifying nature-based tourism. The
consultancy should describe and analyse successful tourism development models and destination
management plans from around the world and within Pakistan (especially in AJK and Gilgit
Baltistan) that might be adapted to the priority destinations. This description would showcase
key lessons learned related to utilizing nature-based and heritage assets to develop tourism that
benefits local populations and supports inclusive and sustainable economic growth, in particular
in the areas of eco-tourism, (soft) adventure, culture, gastronomy, (water, motor and winter
sports and mountain tourism.
Focus on destination-level analysis. The work of the Consultancy will involve two levels of
analysis: firstly, at the provincial level which will focus on KP as a destination of choice; and
secondly at the destination level where separate assessments are required. It should be noted that
there would be some data and reports available at the national and destination level (depending
on the destinations). However, as most investment will occur at a level that supports specific
destinations, it is expected that the bulk of the level of effort of this Consultancy will be focussed
on the priority destinations, where there is less data available and where a more analysis of
demand and supply will be required to guide the destination-level master planning process. The
analysis at the provincial level requirements should be confined to high level aggregation of key
requirements, for example, overall need for increased airlift capacity and airport throughput,
number of qualified staff required, total number of rooms required, value of investment to be
mobilized.
Consultations with World Bank team and Government officials. The Consultancy must
proceed within a framework of high level and frequent consultation with WBG counterparts and
GoKP officials. This consultation will be facilitated by the WBG team. Key counterparts from
the Government of KP will be the Secretary Tourism as well as Communications and Works
Department (KP), local development authorities in the selected destinations (including Galiyat
Development Authority and the Kaghan Development Authority), Key technical agency include
the Environment Protection Agency, Department of Forest and Wildlife, Directorate of
Archaeology and others.
6. DELIVERABLES & TIMELINE
The key deliverables for this Consultancy are detailed reports, detailed maps and summary
PowerPoint presentations for each selected destination covering the main phased activities,
described in the scope of work section and in Annex. Deliverables should be at such detail that
they directly inform the implementation of future investments in the destinations. An indicative
program for specific deliverables and expected timing is shown below:

Steps Deliverables Timeline
1 Inception report providing:
 Conceptual/analytical framework to identify all relevant
research and analysis
 Detailed analytical approach and work plan including
schematic outlines for:
o Baseline and Future Demand Analysis
o Public Investment Needs Assessment
o Destination Growth Vision, including identification of
critical infrastructure such as roads
o Private Investment Analysis
o Detailed Public Investment Plan
Within 1 week of
contract signature
2 Summary report or presentation of key findings from desk
research
Within 4 weeks of
contract signature
3 Draft Baseline Demand Report and Future Market Demand
Report
Within 10 weeks of
contract signature
4 Draft Public Investment Needs Reports
Final Private Investment Analysis
Final Demand Report and Future Market Demand Report
Within 12 weeks of
contract signature
5
Final Public Investment Needs Reports
Within 14 weeks of
contract signature
6 Draft Growth Visions Option Plans
Draft detailed Public Investment Plan
Within 16 weeks of
contract signature
7 Final detailed Public Investment Plan Within 18 weeks of
contract signature
8 Final Growth Visions, Public Investment Plans, Within 20 weeks of
contract signature
The total level of effort for the assignment is estimated at [9] technical staff months. This does
not include research analyst and other support staff.
7. QUALIFICATIONS OF THE CONSULTANCY FIRM
The Consultant must demonstrate the skills and experience required to undertake the tasks set out
in these terms of reference. Specifically:
 10+ years of international experience in market analysis for the tourism sector
 10+ years international experience in destination development in ecotourism, cultural and
heritage tourism in a rural setting and adventure tourism
 Proven track record of attracting and mobilizing private and public sector resources based
on the research and analytical work
 Experience of carrying out research work and preparation of actionable and detailed
plans for developing tourism in protected areas, including village-based tourism
 Proven ability to account for the inputs and outputs in a community related to the
provision of tourism goods and services, analyzing income and poverty impacts.
 Excellent written and communication skills
 Experience in South Asia, as well as other (comparative) regions is highly regarded

 Experience of analyzing the tourism and travel industry, and good understanding of the
structure and operations of the industry and the factors that impact tourism businesses;
 Ability to provide sound recommendations, founded in data and supported by transparent
assumptions;
 Qualification and competence of key staff and any subcontractors related to the
assignment;
 Understanding of, and work experience in Pakistan and/or similar markets will be an
added advantage.
8. WORKING ARRANGEMENTS
The Consultant will be required to present the findings of the various components of the studies
to GoKP and WBG representatives at key milestones during the Consultancy. The Consultancy
will be extended advisory support from the World Bank Group on its policies and the project, as
appropriate. The Consultancy will also be extended full support from the relevant agencies of the
Government of KP through their designated representatives, regarding access to available data
and information relevant to the preparation of the documents as well as to other key agencies and
other stakeholders.
However, it is the sole responsibility of the qualified expert consultancy to contact the identified
stakeholders, gather the necessary information, synthesize and analyze it as well as prepare all
the assignment deliverables satisfactory to the Government of KP. The same consultant firm may
be tasked to prepare DMPs for additional destinations depending upon satisfactory performance
in this assignment.
The Consultant will report to the Secretary Tourism KP and Project Director, ERKF Project (KP-
PMU).

Annex 1
Priority Tourism Destinations and Boundaries
DESCRIPTION TO BE COMPLETED
Destination Main
Gateway
District
To include areas and
locations:
Municipalities, Population and
Visitors
Naran Kaghan Saif ul Maluk, Naran
Kumrat Dir Main Kumrat, valley,
Darderelli Pass

Annex 2: Description of specific tasks and outputs
1-Baseline supply and market analysis per destination (expected to be informed by the Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa Tourism Sector Analysis once approved)
 Present historical trend data and projected outlook for the following:
o General tourist and protected area (PA) visitor demand encompassing; Arrivals, and PA
visitor numbers (including domestic), Profiles per type of accommodation, nationality,
age etc. Segmentation (motivations, profile – including for village-based experiences,
activities and products of interest), Average spend and length of stay, Patterns of
movement within destination, Consumer feedback of experience, Demand outlook
o Compare demand profile with one or two benchmark competitors (to be agreed)
o Analysis of global demand drivers and trends in relevant travel segments.
 Provide a future outlook based on the overview of scope, location, access, characteristics and quality
of destination for tourism development purposes as described in the 2018 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Tourism Sector Analysis, including future outlook. The overview should include analysis of the
applicable PA management plan, and assessment of social and environmental strengths and
weaknesses regarding tourism development.
 Seasonality pattern of the destination(s)
 Hospitality historical data (monthly occupancy, ADR, inventory) at provincial level
 Distribution channels trend data (detailed analysis of tour operator driven business vs no tour operator
driven business).
 Overview of main tourism products serving destination areas (numbers of businesses, size, capacity,
quality, performance, target markets). Products include those physically present within the destination
(accommodations, restaurants, visitor centers, etc.) and those outside the PA (hotels, activity centers,
etc.) which are nevertheless dependent to some extent on the tourism product that the PA offers.
 Analysis of village based tourism products in and around PAs, their performance and growth.
 Details of potential/new hospitality supply/projects serving PAs especially in terms of capacity,
brand, and quality, or new projects that will have an impact on tourism development at the destination
level.
2 – Future/Potential market demand analysis
The consultant shall undertake the following activities, in each case providing sound justification:
 Provide an indication of which destination areas (and areas in/around them) are most market-
ready for tourism development to attract the selected market segments.
 Based on the market analysis, provide an assessment of the types of products and facilities that
would be considered most feasible for future development in and around the destination areas,
including but not be restricted to accommodation, and accounting for foreign, domestic, public
and private investment, and concession product opportunities. Village-based tourism products
should also be considered. Management plans and social and environmental limitations are to be
considered.
 Provide an indication of how many properties/businesses could be supported in each destination
(inside and outside the parks) based on supply/demand analysis. This should identify the
requirements for meeting the demands of different segments of tourists including high spenders
and backpackers and hence hotel standards ranging from a 7 star to a 2 star, etc.
 Analysis of the prospective client mix, possible pricing, quality, brand, types of
amenities/services

 Analysis of how the various products should be developed in terms of phasing. Which types of
products can be brought to the market first, and in/around which destination areas.
 Constraints to investments, including but not limited to access to capital, skills, knowledge, land,
labour, other inputs, and security of tenure will be analysed.
 Provide an indication of prospective arrivals, visitation figures, entry fees and average spend (and
other revenues) based on the phased development of new products.
4- Investor Analysis
Analyse the investor market for each destination, levels of FDI and domestic investment, types of
tourism projects in each category and asset class (existing and pipeline), identify specific investors
and categorize types of investors, access and availability of finance, size of projects, target market
segment and typical structure of deals. Clary what do existing investors think about the destinations?
5 – Analysis of tourism impact on local incomes, poverty level and shared prosperity
 Assess the likely change in incomes and poverty levels in communities at the destinations as a
result of tourism development, taking into account the multiplier impact of revenues from goods
and services provided to tourists.
 Analyze which sections of the community at the destination stands to gain most from tourism.
Pay specific attention to women and disadvantaged groups in the communities.
 Based on the above evaluate the options of tourist goods and services, types and scale, modes of
delivery (community, local entrepreneur, external investor) identified above, from the perspective
of likely impact on incomes, poverty level and shared prosperity and the sustainability of the
impacts.
 Recommend interventions, such as skill development or access to credit, to allow impact of
tourism broad based.
6 – Public Investment Analysis and Plan
The consultant shall identify and quantify the major infrastructure and destination facility barriers (and
risks) related to tourism development in and around these destination areas, and recommend appropriate
investments assessing operating and maintenance costs. The investment plan will be notably based on the
quantification of demand indicators such as peak visitor loads (at both the destination and key site level),
numbers of additional hotel rooms, additional capacity of transport networks (roads, airports etc.)
numbers of skilled staff required etc.
 Inventory of existing development plans, and rules regarding their preparation by municipalities,
provinces and other public bodies;
 Inventory of priority connectivity/transport/utilities infrastructures (including air and road road
connection, water management,waste management) at destination level and timing required to
fill the gaps identified (reflecting seasonality conditions)
 Inventory and needs of tourism-related infrastructure (including visitor information centers,
signage, lighting, parking, access to lakes, viewpoints, villages and hilltops, construction and
renovation of tourism infrastructure in protected areas to improve trekking and scenic trails, safe
drinking water,viewpoints, shelters, accommodation).
 Training and capacity building for private sector development and public-sector management of
public interest assets:capacity building, training services and facilities, and equipment needed to
facilitate SMEs and local communities’ involvement, as well as build capacity among local

government and protected areas management authorities to better enforce safeguards and
environmental protection standards.
 Resource modelling and income/expenditure assessment for priority infrastructure investments

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