Dr Steve Goldman's Top Ten Business Continuity Predictions / Trends for 2014

1
My Top Ten
Business Continuity
Predictions / Trends
for 2014
Dr. Steven B. Goldman

2
MY TOP TEN BUSINESS CONTINUITY
PREDICTIONS/TRENDS FOR 2014
is an internationally
recognized expert and
consultant in Business
Continuity, Crisis
Management, Disaster
Recovery, and Crisis
Communications.

3
AGENDA
• Welcome and Introduction
• My Top Ten BC/DR Predictions/Trends for
2014
• Wrap up
• Questions
• Conclusion
• Adjourn

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AN UNEXPECTED EVENT WILL SOON
MAKE YOUR LIFE MORE EXCITING

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CAVEATS
• These are my observations
– Yours may differ
• Well, an observation or two may not be
completely mine
– References are provided
• “What does this mean to you?”
– Added after each trend/prediction
– You have to adapt this guidance to your particular situation

6
The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the ﬁle.
2014

7
10
There has been an
overall worldwide
increase in the
number of natural
disasters

8
INCREASE IN NATURAL DISASTERS
• Incidence of natural disasters worldwide has
steadily increased
• Climate-related disasters
– Floods, storm surge, and coastal flooding; storms, tropical cyclones,
local storms, heat/cold waves, drought, and wildfires
– (2000 to 2009) = 3 x (1980 to 1989)
• Geophysical disasters
– Earthquakes, volcanoes, dry rock falls, landslides, and avalanches
– Fairly stable since the 1970's
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1109877?query=featured_home
http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/2014_01_07_press_release.aspx

11
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO YOU?
• Expect these events
• Do not surrender to Mother Nature!
• Be prepared for whatever Mother Nature can
dish out
• Planning, preparation, and execution

12
9
The rise in malicious
cyber attacks will
continue

13
MCAFEE® LABS THREATS REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2013
• Several familiar trends
• New trends
–  Steady growth in mobile and overall malware
–  A sharp upturn in worldwide spam
–  The shutdown of the online market Silk Road, which sold drugs
and other illegal products
–  The emergence of the “Deep Web,” an online supply for
cybercriminals
–  An increase in the use of digital currencies by cybercriminals to
maintain anonymity for their illegal activities
http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2013.pdf

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http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/11/18/swansea-police-
pay-ransom-after-computer-system-was-hacked/

15
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/56b4382c-5ea7-11e3-8621-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2q6R7apxd

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MCAFEE® LABS THREATS REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2013
• Mobile malware rose by 33 percent
• New malware of all types exceeded 20 million
this period
• All-time tally to more than 172 million binaries
• New rootkits, AutoRun threats
• Signed malware increased by almost 50
percent

17
CONSIDER THESE:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/
SB10001424052702304644104579192393329283358
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/target-says-70-million-
customers-were-hit-by-dec-data-breach-more-than-first-reported/
2014/01/10/0ada1026-79fe-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html
http://news.cnet.com/
8301-1009_3-57617075-83/credit-card-hackers-
hit-neiman-marcus/

18
AND CONSIDER THESE:
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/04/hackers-find-
weaknesses-in-car-computer-systems/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dick-cheneys-heart/2

19
•  More and more corporate assets and operations
are online
•  Your organization must have a cyber attack
prevention program as well as a response and
recovery strategy
•  Think outside the box your cell phone came in.
Can you survive an attack on your mobile
communications assets?

20
8
Some disruptions are
becoming more
predictable

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SOME DISRUPTIONS ARE BECOMING
MORE PREDICTABLE
• On the one hand
–  Economies around the world have become increasingly
vulnerable to the ever-changing nature of the sun. Solar flares can
disrupt power grids, interfere with high-frequency airline and
military communications, disrupt Global Positioning System (GPS)
signals, interrupt civilian communications, and blanket the Earth’s
upper atmosphere with hazardous radiation
• On the other hand
–  With more and more massive amounts of technology and data
available, we are more adept at better predicting weather
patterns, natural disasters, system breakdowns, even human
threats.
–  Forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
are expecting G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm conditions to occur
on Earth Jan. 9 and 10
http://www.noaa.gov/features/01_economic/spaceweather_3.html

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• Have strategies and plans that become more
preventative than reactive
–  An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of response
• Listen and anticipate problems
–  Weather, cyber attacks, pandemic, power outages
• Don’t wait for a hurricane to begin
implementing response plans

23
http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2012/10/31/sandy102612_custom-
f3f593114fe3a3dd3479472fb0fd855e3dfff4fb-s6-c30.gif
High-Def Storm
Models Yielded
Accurate
Predictions
http://www.npr.org/2012/10/31/164046039/high-def-
storm-models-yielded-accurate-predictions

24
7
Disruptions should be
considered the norm.

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•  Business interruptions - whether acts of nature or man-
made or technical glitches - are no longer outlying
anomalies, but are becoming the norm.
•  Consider the potential for business disruption like bad
weather – you don’t like it, but it’s part of business life; be
prepared to deal with it
•  Embrace interruption as part of expected “day to day”
processes and plan accordingly
•  Most days are relatively nice; but be prepared for the
occasional thunderstorm.

27
6
Cloud-to-cloud
continuity will get
serious with Software-
as-a-Service (SaaS)
Rachel Dines, Forrester Research, for her contribution to http://blogs.forrester.com/james_staten/13-12-04-
cloud_computing_predictions_for_2014_cloud_joins_the_formal_it_portfolio

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CLOUD-TO-CLOUD CONTINUITY WILL
GET SERIOUS WITH SAAS
• Disaster recovery (DR) is a leading driver for
public cloud use
–  Mostly by enterprises looking to improve the resiliency of mid- to
low-end apps
–  For smaller companies putting their entire recovery strategy in the
cloud
• Cloud-based DR will go cloud-to-cloud
–  Cloud-to-cloud backups for mainstream SaaS offerings

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•  A new market of backup solutions is rising to
meet this need
–  These solutions automate the protection of critical data that is stored
with SaaS providers so organizations can recover this data if it is
accidentally, or maliciously, deleted
•  Forrester wants to be clear that this is not
replacing DRaaS and cloud DR, but it's more of
an extension/different route that will be big in
2014. DRaaS is still continuing along at a very
steady pace.

30
5
The role of the
Business Continuity /
Disaster Recovery
professional is
changing for the better

31
Old Joke: What is the difference between
a highly paid/highly recognized BCP Manager and a Unicorn?

32
Old Joke: What is the difference between
a highly paid/highly recognized BCP Manager and a Unicorn?
Answer: They are both mythical creatures!

33
Trending in Business Continuity - An Assessment of Data Collected
Between 2009 – 2011; Prepared by BC Management, Inc. - June 2012
www.BCManagement.com
“One of our studies has shown
that since 2009, respondents have
indicated that IT/Disaster
Recovery and Business Continuity
strategies have increasingly
supported organizational needs.”
Cheyene Marling
President, BC Management, Inc.

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OTHER 2012 BCM INDUSTRY SURVEY
TRENDS
•  Increased awareness at the chief officer level
•  A shift in program sponsor from mid management/
management to the chief officer level/ board committee.
•  The chief level program sponsors are stepping up their level of
engagement with the business continuity management program.
•  Adding more full-time, permanent personnel dedicated to the
program and a decrease in downsizing of personnel in the next
year.
•  A shift to an enterprise-wide resiliency focus with increased
executive support
•  Acknowledgement of increased standards that will more than
likely continue to evolve the profession in the future.

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•  Life is Good!
•  We are becoming recognized more and more
•  We are being taken seriously
•  We have a career path
–  Vice President, Business Continuity
–  Vice President, Disaster Recovery
–  Chief Resiliency Officer

36
4
Communications
expectations are
increasing: The speed
of information is faster
than the speed of light

37
COMMUNICATIONS DEVICES
ARE INCREASING
http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/product-reviews/research-
institute/12-companies-with-great-recycling-programs

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THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGY MOVES FAST!
• To reach 70% of US households:
–  Basic landline telephone: 52 Years
–  Cell phones: 17 years
• Apple App Store
–  2008 ~ 500 apps
–  Today > 1,000,000 apps
• Facebook
–  0 to > 1.1 Billion users 9 years
Apps image from : http://www.geek.com/apple/apple-
app-store-subscriptions-1314201/

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http://bostonherald.com/
business/technology/
technology_news/2014/01/
the_new_stars_of_social_media

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•  You need to keep up with the technology
•  This technology allows your employees, customers,
suppliers, etc., to communicate quickly and freely
•  On the other hand, this technology raises the
expectation that your employees, customers,
suppliers, etc., will be contacted quickly when
necessary – like in an emergency
•  Communication plans need to factor in these
expectations

42
Boston Marathon bombings
More than 27 million Tweets were sent as the world discussed the
bombings, the manhunt, and the spirit of #bostonstrong.
After shutting down an entire city, Boston Police announced the capture
of Boston Marathon terror suspects. This single tweet eliminated the
tense atmosphere in the city.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markfidelman/2013/12/14/twitter-these-are-the-most-popular-tweets-of-2013/

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WHAT DOES THIS ALSO MEAN TO YOU?
•  Fast initial communications are more important
today than ever.
•  You have to get in front of an event before it
swallows you up.
•  Bad advice from a public relations manual:
–  “Assess severity, length of issue and media life. If you believe this is a
very small ‘flash in the pan’ it may be best to not make public
statements for 24-48 hours and see how quickly the issue goes
away.”

44
3
Social Media will
continue to drive BC/
DR response.

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SOCIAL MEDIA WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE BC/DR RESPONSE
• Social media is here to stay
• A powerful tool to notify and communicate
before, during, and after an event
• Can also be a burden to crisis responders
–  Incorrect information, rumors, everyone is a spokesperson

48
SOCIAL MEDIA WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE BC/DR RESPONSE
•  How Dan in West Virginia
learned about the WV spill
–  Dan lives and works in West
Virginia
–  Leak occurs just south of Dan’s
home
–  Someone in WV posts the event
on Facebook
–  Dan’s sister lives in upstate NY;
she reads about the event on
Facebook
–  Dan’s sister calls Dan in WV and
informs him of the leak
–  Dan has not heard about the
event!
–  15 minutes later, local news
announces the leak

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•  Organizations must know how to:
–  Leverage social media
–  Harness its power rather than let it control your response
•  Companies/agencies need policies on what
information (non-emergency response) employees
can give out to the public, the media, and even their
family & friends.
•  Employees need to know and understand your
communication policies and protocols, especially
during a disaster

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• Make sure you have emergency
communications policies such as:
–  “Statements to the public and news media concerning an
emergency at {Organization} are to be made only with the
knowledge and guidance of the Emergency Communications
Team.”
–  “Information requests made to individual {Organization}
employees and contractors by the public, media, and government
officials must be referred to the Emergency Communications
Team.”

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• What about the social media? You should
have a policy such as:
–  “Employees shall not use social media to discuss, describe, or
inform anyone about any aspect of an emergency at
{Organization}”

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{Organization}”
• But wait!!!
•

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{Organization}”
• But wait!!!
• Is that policy legal???
Picture from: http://www.veteransnewsnow.com/2011/10/24/

54
A LAWYER’S PERSPECTIVE:
JULIE MEADOWS-KEEFE
OF THE LAW FIRM GROSSMAN, FURLOW & BAYÓ
• It’s a thorny issue. That policy could raise
some First Amendment and other issues
• If employee is in a life or death situation. . .
–  Probably no company discipline
• If employee tweeting on a personal account. .
–  Violating company policy but within First Amendment protections

55
A LAWYER’S PERSPECTIVE:
JULIE MEADOWS-KEEFE
OF THE LAW FIRM GROSSMAN, FURLOW & BAYÓ
•  Policy should be a “Strong Recommendation” not
to discuss events on social media
•  If you do, make sure it is clear that the message
is identified as a personal opinion
•  Realistically: hard to implement or enforce
•  Organizations should:
–  Train all employees on your policies and
–  Assume employee common sense

57
TWITIOTS WILL CONTINUE
• Several people will become famous – or
infamous – by tweeting/blogging something
stupid!

58
Justine Sacco - the
now-former
Communications
Director for IAC - lost
her job
approximately 12
hours after boarding
her flight.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2527330/Blonde-female-PR-executive-tweets-Going-Africa-Hope-I-dont-AIDS-Just-kidding-Im-white-causes-international-outrage-likely-
fired.html

59
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/anthony-weiner-resigns-scandal_n_878161.html

60
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/pan-am-karine-vanasse-canceled-twitter-bridget-279433

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•  Everyone with an internet connection/e-mail/twitter
account – essentially all your employees - must
understand that by pressing the “Send” button, you
are sending your “personal” message to potentially
over 2.4 Billion people
•  That’s over one third of the world’s population
•  There are no take-backs
•  Again, what is your social media policy during an
emergency?

62
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/04/29/article-1381820-0BD506C300000578-443_964x635.jpg
SEND

63
1
Be prepared for the
Matrix, the Robot
Uprising, or Skynet!

64
1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Matrix
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
How_to_Survive_a_Robot_Uprising
http://technorati.com/technology/article/
skynet-goes-active-terminator-judgment-
dayapril/
http://pogoprinciple.wordpress.com/2012/10/03/

65
KEEP THE MACHINES FROM
TAKING YOU OVER!
• Store data in offline forms and/or on local
devices
• Keep continuity plans on paper and/or on
local devices
• Have emergency shutdown protocols for
your data center

66
• These three strategies can and should be
applied to more mundane – and more likely –
disasters
–  Loss of power to your data center
–  Evacuation of the data center
–  Loss of access to the building containing the data center
• If you have a data center building
evacuation:
–  Can you quickly and orderly shutdown (and transfer) your data
center?
–  How do you access plans and data that are stored online or on
your network?

67
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Virtual_Private_Network_overview.svg

68
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Virtual_Private_Network_overview.svg
http://www.outagealarm.com/
Loss of power
Robot Uprising or

69
BONUS
TREND
Your company/agency/
organization will be
impacted by a disaster
in 2014

70
YOUR COMPANY/AGENCY/ORGANIZATION
WILL BE IMPACTED BY A DISASTER IN 2014
• Directly
–  Hurricane
–  Credit card hacking
–  Chemical spill/release
–  Etc, etc, etc.
• Indirectly
–  Post-Target system checks
–  Crisis affecting your neighbor
–  Crisis affecting your industry
–  Etc, etc, etc.

71
•  Are you prepared????
•  The usual “stuff”
–  Management support, BIA, plans, procedures, staffing, equipment,
facilities, training, drills, exercises, lessons learned, etc
•  Collateral damage from someone else’s crisis
•  Management awareness?

73
PREDICTING TRENDS IS ALWAYS A RISK
http://www.nationalreview.com/tags/boston-marathon-bombing#!
http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/2013/10/boston-celebrates-red-
sox-world-series-victory/#6

75
REFERENCES
Trend Information
Source
10
§  http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1109877?query=featured_home
§  http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/2014_01_07_press_release.aspx
9
§  http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2013.pdf
§  http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/11/18/swansea-police-pay-ransom-after-computer-system-was-hacked/
§  http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/56b4382c-5ea7-11e3-8621-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2q6R7apxd
§  http://blogs.adobe.com/conversations/2013/10/important-customer-security-announcement.html
§  http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/target-says-70-million-customers-were-hit-by-dec-data-breach-more-than-first-reported/
2014/01/10/0ada1026-79fe-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html
§  http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57617075-83/credit-card-hackers-hit-neiman-marcus/
§  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dick-cheneys-heart/2/
§  http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/04/hackers-find-weaknesses-in-car-computer-systems/
8
§  http://www.noaa.gov/features/01_economic/spaceweather_3.html
§  http://www.npr.org/2012/10/31/164046039/high-def-storm-models-yielded-accurate-predictions
7 None
6
§  Rachel Dines, Forrester Research, for her contribution to http://blogs.forrester.com/james_staten/13-12-04-
5
§  “Contingency Management Trends; What are the most “successful” programs doing right?” presentation by Cheyene Marling, October 2013
§  Trending in Business Continuity - An Assessment of Data Collected Between 2009 – 2011; Prepared by BC Management, Inc. - June 2012
4
§  http://visualizingeconomics.com/2008/02/18/adoption-of-new-technology-since-1900
§  Boston MA Globe, January 8, 2014: “Apple says $10b spent in app store”, Associated Press story
§  Facebook Reports First Quarter 2013 Results - Facebook. Investor.fb.com (May 1, 2013). Retrieved on July 21, 2013
§  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2396909/Police-inundated-calls-cable-outage-Breaking-Bad-began.html
§  http://www.forbes.com/sites/markfidelman/2013/12/14/twitter-these-are-the-most-popular-tweets-of-2013/
§  http://www.mvma.org/MediaResources/3-Crisis%20Communications.pdf
3
§  Julie Meadows-Keefe of the law firm Grossman, Furlow & Bayó; personal conversations, January 9, 2014
§  http://www.gfblawfirm.com/bio_keefe.html
2
§  http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2013/12/23/justine-sacco-and-the-self-inflicted-perils-of-twitter/
§  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2527330/Blonde-female-PR-executive-tweets-Going-Africa-Hope-I-dont-AIDS-Just-kidding-Im-white-
causes-international-outrage-likely-fired.html
§  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/anthony-weiner-resigns-scandal_n_878161.html
§  http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/pan-am-karine-vanasse-canceled-twitter-bridget-279433
§  http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#4-anthony-weiner
§  http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#6-karine-vanasse
1 §  Another tip of the hat to Rachel Dines: http://blogs.forrester.com/rachel_dines/13-04-01-continuity_planning_for_the_robot_uprising

76
Dr. Steve Goldman
Web site: www. SteveGoldmanAssociates.com
E-mail: Steve@SteveGoldmanAssociates.com

77
MAY YOUR 2014 BE A YEAR OF
UNEVENTFUL PREPAREDNESS!

78
Thank you!
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