Dr Frans Cronje of the South African Institute of Race Relations - South Africa's next ten years (SABPP)
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This document presents scenarios for South Africa's next ten years based on time-traveler forecasts. It includes graphs and data on economic growth rates, unemployment levels, living conditions, education enrollment, electricity capacity, opinion polls, and protests between 1994-2020. Four potential scenarios for South Africa's future are described: Wide Road (open politics, extensive reform), Narrow Road (limited reform), Rocky Road (closed politics, volatility), and Toll Road (some reform). Graphs project economic and political trends under each scenario from 2020-2024.
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Dr Frans Cronje of the South African Institute of Race Relations - South Africa's next ten years (SABPP)
- 1. South Africa’s Next Ten Years: The Time-Traveller Scenarios Produced by the Centre for Risk Analysis – a product of the IRR .
- 4. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 2 000 000 4 000 000 6 000 000 8 000 000 10 000 000 12 000 000 Employed:Unemployed ratios
- 5. 37,0% 38,0% 39,0% 40,0% 41,0% 42,0% 43,0% 44,0% 45,0% 46,0% 47,0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Labour force absorption
- 6. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 12 600 000 12 800 000 13 000 000 13 200 000 13 400 000 13 600 000 13 800 000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jobs and unemployment Unemployment rate (expanded) Employed people
- 7. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 500 000 1 000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000 3 000 000 3 500 000 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Unemployment by age Rate (expanded) Number (expanded)
- 8. 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jobs by sector Government Mining Manufacturing Fin
- 9. 0 2 000 000 4 000 000 6 000 000 8 000 000 10 000 000 12 000 000 14 000 000 16 000 000 18 000 000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 South Africa’s developmental policy model Employed people Welfare recipients
- 10. 0 2 000 000 4 000 000 6 000 000 8 000 000 10 000 000 12 000 000 14 000 000 16 000 000 0 1 000 000 2 000 000 3 000 000 4 000 000 5 000 000 6 000 000 7 000 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SWR A better life for all 2001 2012 SWR 2001 SWR 2012 Number of people/LSM Number of people getting grants
- 11. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Formal house Shack Piped water Electricity Refuse removal Poverty Living conditions and poverty 1994 2013
- 12. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Formal houses Shacks Piped water Electricity Daily increase in households with services – post 1994
- 13. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Rent/mortgage > R5000/pm Household income > R20 000/pm Property valued over R1.5m Medical insurance Middle classes White Black African
- 14. 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 1950 1976 1994 2014 Changing structure of GDP Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Finance
- 16. 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 900 000 1 000 000 19851987 1989 1991 19931995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20072009 2011 Enrolment in tertiary education
- 17. 0 10 20 30 40 50 Business and management Engineering Law Healthcare sciences Social sciences The astonishing racial transformation of higher education Ratio white: black African South African 2012 Ratio white: black African South African 1991
- 18. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Electricity supply Total capacity (MW) Demand at 4% growth Demand at 6% growth
- 19. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Opinion polls Government performs 'well' Happy with service delivery Confident of happy future
- 20. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Major protests and public violence Incidents of public violence Major service delivery protests
- 21. 0 2 000 000 4 000 000 6 000 000 8 000 000 10 000 000 12 000 000 14 000 000 16 000 000 Labour volatility
- 22. 22 Increasingly closed, patronage driven political system Free and open political system Extensive economic policy reform process Limited economic policy reform ROCKY ROAD WIDE ROAD TOLL ROAD NARROW ROAD
- 23. -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Economic futures Wide/narrow road: real GDP growth Wide/narrow road: unemployment rate Rocky road: real GDP growth Rocky road: unemployment rate Toll road: real GDP growth Toll road: unemployment rate
- 24. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Political futures Wide road ANC Wide road DA Wide road RL Narrow road ANC Narrow road DA Narrow road RL Rocky road ANC Rocky road DA Rocky road RL Toll road ANC Toll road DA Toll road RL