This document provides an overview of the Russian market for European managers. It summarizes the leading industries in Russia, including energy, construction, metallurgy, retail, automotive, ICT, and chemicals. It also identifies driving factors for Russia-EU business such as success stories of European companies in Russia, a simplified visa regime, and a growing Russian middle class. Finally, it outlines general challenges of doing business in Russia.
The document discusses the future of the Russian middle class. It analyzes the current state of the middle class in Russia based on interviews with 1,300 people. The middle class is defined based on material status, with an annual income per family member of 17,000-25,000 euros. The document forecasts that the middle class will continue growing and their lifestyle and consumption will change in the future. It also discusses opportunities for Finnish companies to engage with the evolving Russian middle class market.
ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL ECONOMIC INSTRUMEN...IAEME Publication
This document analyzes trends in the development of financial instruments used for large-scale urban construction projects in Moscow. It summarizes data on the mortgage lending market in Russia from 2006-2016, focusing on Moscow, the Moscow region, and St. Petersburg. Moscow had the largest share of the national mortgage market in terms of loans issued and debt levels. The ratio of loan defaults to total debt was highest in Moscow compared to other regions during this period.
The paper deals with the choice of the nominal euro conversion rates for the acceding countries upon their accession to EMU. The paper reviews theoretical models of equilibrium exchange rates as well as discusses their interpretation and the ensuing policy recommendations. Problems with empirical estimations of existing models are addressed. It is argued that despite several equilibrium exchange rate theories not all of them are useful for the real policy choice of the nominal conversion rate. This and the intrinsic uncertainty of equilibrium exchange rate estimates lead to the conclusion that the range of “optimal” euro conversion rates is quiet wideand other issues must be taken into account. In particular, a smooth transition to the euro conversion rate and minimisation of risks of potential shocks to the economy should be the keyconcern. Consequently, recommendations for the selection of nominal conversion rates are largely dependent on the current exchange rate regime.
Authored by: Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2003
This document discusses opportunities for foreign investment and business expansion in the Udmurt Republic region of Russia. It notes that while most foreign investment projects in Russia are located in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the regional markets may offer more growth potential. The Udmurt Republic is highlighted as a promising region for foreign direct investment, with unique natural resources, developed infrastructure, skilled workforce, and growing consumer market. The document also profiles the industrial sectors and state support available to foreign investors in the Udmurt Republic.
The misleading eastern alternative: Republic of Moldova and The Russia – Kaza...IDIS Viitorul
The document discusses Moldova's consideration of joining the Russia-Kazakhstan-Belarus Customs Union as an alternative to European integration. Key points:
1) Institutionally, joining the Customs Union would be difficult for Moldova as the members have differing statuses in the World Trade Organization and legal frameworks are uncertain.
2) Economically, the Customs Union market is much smaller than the EU's and relies heavily on oil and gas exports rather than technology and investment, providing limited benefits to Moldova.
3) Aligning with the Customs Union could undermine Moldova's existing free trade agreements with European countries and negotiations for a trade agreement with the EU.
This paper employs a standard Tobin-Markowitz framework to analyse the determinants of capital flows into the CIS countries. Using data from 1996-2006, we find that the Russian financial crisis of 1998 has had a profound impact on capital flows into the CIS (both directly and indirectly). Firstly, it introduced a structural shift in the investors' behaviour by shifting the focus from the external factors to the internal ones, e.g. domestic interest and GDP growth rates. Secondly, it also drastically changed the impact of a number of explanatory variables on capital flows into the CIS. Political risk was found to be the second most important determinant of capital flows into the CIS. Additionally, we report some strong evidence of co-movement between portfolio flows into the CIS and CEEC, coupled with strong complementarity between global stock market activity and portfolio inflows into the CIS. Interestingly, external factors tend to be of a higher significance than internal factors for the largest members (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) of the CIS; whereas domestic variables tend to have a greater impact on the capital flows into the smaller CIS countries.
Authored by: Oleksandr Lozovyi
Published in 2007
Report on the development of chinese enterprises in the eu 2019Hubery shi
This document provides an overview of the report on the development of Chinese enterprises in the European Union from 2019. Some key points:
- Chinese investment in the EU has grown rapidly in the past decade, though it has declined recently, with Chinese firms now employing over 330,000 directly and millions indirectly.
- Chinese companies are establishing R&D centers, factories and other facilities, strengthening economic and trade connections between China and the EU.
- The report analyzes the benefits Chinese firms bring to EU countries, such as fueling industry upgrades, improving livelihoods, and conducting research.
- It also examines the business environment and challenges Chinese companies face in the EU, such as increasingly strict investment policies and
The paper analyses possible consequences of the EU enlargement on the EU – CIS-7 trade. It considers current situation in trade between two country groups, describes the factors limiting this trade, and discusses the opportunities for the trade associated with the EU accession of the Central and East European countries with strong historical ties to the CIS-7. The paper concludes that the EU enlargement creates some potential for expansion of trade and, importantly, exports from CIS-7 to Europe.
Authored by: Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2004
The document discusses the future of the Russian middle class. It analyzes the current state of the middle class in Russia based on interviews with 1,300 people. The middle class is defined based on material status, with an annual income per family member of 17,000-25,000 euros. The document forecasts that the middle class will continue growing and their lifestyle and consumption will change in the future. It also discusses opportunities for Finnish companies to engage with the evolving Russian middle class market.
ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL ECONOMIC INSTRUMEN...IAEME Publication
This document analyzes trends in the development of financial instruments used for large-scale urban construction projects in Moscow. It summarizes data on the mortgage lending market in Russia from 2006-2016, focusing on Moscow, the Moscow region, and St. Petersburg. Moscow had the largest share of the national mortgage market in terms of loans issued and debt levels. The ratio of loan defaults to total debt was highest in Moscow compared to other regions during this period.
The paper deals with the choice of the nominal euro conversion rates for the acceding countries upon their accession to EMU. The paper reviews theoretical models of equilibrium exchange rates as well as discusses their interpretation and the ensuing policy recommendations. Problems with empirical estimations of existing models are addressed. It is argued that despite several equilibrium exchange rate theories not all of them are useful for the real policy choice of the nominal conversion rate. This and the intrinsic uncertainty of equilibrium exchange rate estimates lead to the conclusion that the range of “optimal” euro conversion rates is quiet wideand other issues must be taken into account. In particular, a smooth transition to the euro conversion rate and minimisation of risks of potential shocks to the economy should be the keyconcern. Consequently, recommendations for the selection of nominal conversion rates are largely dependent on the current exchange rate regime.
Authored by: Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2003
This document discusses opportunities for foreign investment and business expansion in the Udmurt Republic region of Russia. It notes that while most foreign investment projects in Russia are located in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the regional markets may offer more growth potential. The Udmurt Republic is highlighted as a promising region for foreign direct investment, with unique natural resources, developed infrastructure, skilled workforce, and growing consumer market. The document also profiles the industrial sectors and state support available to foreign investors in the Udmurt Republic.
The misleading eastern alternative: Republic of Moldova and The Russia – Kaza...IDIS Viitorul
The document discusses Moldova's consideration of joining the Russia-Kazakhstan-Belarus Customs Union as an alternative to European integration. Key points:
1) Institutionally, joining the Customs Union would be difficult for Moldova as the members have differing statuses in the World Trade Organization and legal frameworks are uncertain.
2) Economically, the Customs Union market is much smaller than the EU's and relies heavily on oil and gas exports rather than technology and investment, providing limited benefits to Moldova.
3) Aligning with the Customs Union could undermine Moldova's existing free trade agreements with European countries and negotiations for a trade agreement with the EU.
This paper employs a standard Tobin-Markowitz framework to analyse the determinants of capital flows into the CIS countries. Using data from 1996-2006, we find that the Russian financial crisis of 1998 has had a profound impact on capital flows into the CIS (both directly and indirectly). Firstly, it introduced a structural shift in the investors' behaviour by shifting the focus from the external factors to the internal ones, e.g. domestic interest and GDP growth rates. Secondly, it also drastically changed the impact of a number of explanatory variables on capital flows into the CIS. Political risk was found to be the second most important determinant of capital flows into the CIS. Additionally, we report some strong evidence of co-movement between portfolio flows into the CIS and CEEC, coupled with strong complementarity between global stock market activity and portfolio inflows into the CIS. Interestingly, external factors tend to be of a higher significance than internal factors for the largest members (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) of the CIS; whereas domestic variables tend to have a greater impact on the capital flows into the smaller CIS countries.
Authored by: Oleksandr Lozovyi
Published in 2007
Report on the development of chinese enterprises in the eu 2019Hubery shi
This document provides an overview of the report on the development of Chinese enterprises in the European Union from 2019. Some key points:
- Chinese investment in the EU has grown rapidly in the past decade, though it has declined recently, with Chinese firms now employing over 330,000 directly and millions indirectly.
- Chinese companies are establishing R&D centers, factories and other facilities, strengthening economic and trade connections between China and the EU.
- The report analyzes the benefits Chinese firms bring to EU countries, such as fueling industry upgrades, improving livelihoods, and conducting research.
- It also examines the business environment and challenges Chinese companies face in the EU, such as increasingly strict investment policies and
The paper analyses possible consequences of the EU enlargement on the EU – CIS-7 trade. It considers current situation in trade between two country groups, describes the factors limiting this trade, and discusses the opportunities for the trade associated with the EU accession of the Central and East European countries with strong historical ties to the CIS-7. The paper concludes that the EU enlargement creates some potential for expansion of trade and, importantly, exports from CIS-7 to Europe.
Authored by: Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2004
The document discusses business and human resource issues facing the hotel industry in Russia. It notes that while Russia has experienced rapid tourism growth, the hotel industry struggles with understaffing due to a lack of trained hospitality workers and high employee turnover. International hotels have addressed this through joint ventures with Russian partners and investments in hospitality education to develop the local workforce. However, cultural and management style differences between foreign and Russian employees continue to pose challenges.
The paper first considers why central European countries wish to join EMU soon. The main reasons are the risk of macroeconomic instability they face outside the euro zone if they wish to grow quickly. At the same time, Central Europe is highly integrated as regards trade with EMU, so it is little exposed to asymmetric shocks that would require a realignment of exchange rates. Finally, it is argued that there is no cost in terms of slower growth from EMU accession, so that there is no trade-off, as has been claimed, between nominal convergence to EMU and real convergence to EU average GDP levels. Second, the paper assesses whether Central European accession to EMU would be disadvantageous to current members. It concludes that accession cannot increase inflationary pressure on existing EMU members, as has been claimed, but that slow growing members of EMU might suffer increased unemployment, unless they increase the flexibility of their labour markets. Incumbent members may also be unwilling to share power with Central Europeans in EMU institutions.
Authored by: Jacek Rostowski
Published in 2003
This paper discusses the processes of nominal and real convergence and their dependence on exchange rate regimes adopted in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) in thecontext of their future EMU accession. We focus our argument on the possibility of trade-off between the pace of disinflation and the maintenance of competitiveness and growth. Fixednominal exchange rate shifts the burden of adjustment on to the tradable sector but whether this pressure results in faster restructuring and faster productivity growth or becomes a straightjacket for the economy is an open question. The paper implements a simple empirical assessment of convergence of inflation to EU levels and economic growth of 7 CEE economies which had adopted different exchange rate regimes in period 1993-2002. Results indicate that fixed exchange rates seem to have been a better tool of fighting inflation as compared to floating exchange rates or intermediate regimes. The presence of a fixed exchange rate has also been characterised byhigher real GDP growth rates implying an absence of trade-off between nominal and real convergence in the investigated sample. Qualifications attached to these results are discussed.
Authored by: Przemyslaw Kowalski
Published in 2003
The purpose of this paper is to look at implications of the EMU accession on international trade flows of the new member states with members of the enlarged EU. I begin with the evaluation of an early impact of the EMU on trade based on a gravity model. The results are then employed in the calculation of potential levels of trade of the Central and East European countries. The results show a high degree of trade integration between most of the new member states and the EU except for Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. In trade among the new member states, potential trade flows by far exceed actual levels for all countries except the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Authored by: Maryla Maliszewska
Published in 2004
International Finance - EM Strasbourg Business School - Final Research Paper ...Daniel Patino Vieito
This research paper examines the role of trade finance in international trade and its impact on the 2008-2009 global trade collapse. It discusses how trade finance provides working capital and insures risks for 90% of world trade. During the financial crisis, trade finance supply contracted significantly, restricting trade credit availability. Combined with falling demand for imports due to recession, this shortage in trade finance contributed to a 30% decline in world trade, the steepest since the Great Depression. The paper reviews academic literature on the relationship between trade finance and trade volumes, and evidence from the IMF on the crisis impact. It also outlines policy responses to address trade finance gaps and lessons learned for mitigating future shortages.
he paper examines theoretical literature, recent EMU accession examples, and current CEECs performance in search of the optimal currency regime for meeting the Maastricht criteria. Currency board arrangements seems to provide the fastest convergence. For other regimes, the markets may have theoretical and historical reasons to believe in the government's temptation to devalue on the ERM-2 entry. The government should announce the final date, and, possibly indicate the final exchange rate for the regime switch to avoid excessive currency and yield volatility. It should also underscore the central bank’s and EU authorities importance (even if non-existent) in the parity setting process to avoid excessive domestic debt inflation premium ahead of the accession. Recent experience shows that it will be easy to get rid of the remaining influence of cross rates on CEECs exchange rates.
Authored by: Mateusz Szczurek
Published in 2003
Financial market integration and growth 2011sirio788
This document provides an introduction to a volume on financial market integration and growth in the European Union. It discusses how policy events over the last two decades have influenced the structure of financial markets among original EU members and incentives to invest in new member economies. The volume aims to study relevant European and global dynamics through chapters focusing on topics like the transatlantic banking crisis, financial market integration in the EU15, and the impact of financial development and foreign direct investment in countries like Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain as well as new member states. The introduction argues that new member countries represent both a geographical enlargement of the EU and a natural experiment in institutional changes and economic internationalization, providing analytical challenges to understand developments across the EU.
This paper quantifies transparency of monetary policy in the three EU New Member States that have adopted direct inflation targeting strategy. Two measures of transparency are applied. The institutional measure reflects the extent to which a central bank discloses information that is related to the policymaking process. The behavioural measure reflects the clarity among the financial market participants about the true course of monetary policy. The paper shows an ambiguous association between the two measures of transparency, which may be attributed to the active exchange rate management policy that undermines the actual transparency proxied by the behavioural measure.
Authored by: Mariusz Jarmuzek, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Artur Radziwill
Published in 2004
The document discusses trade and investment cooperation between Thailand and Russia. It provides a chronology of the relationship between the two countries beginning in the 19th century. Bilateral trade has grown significantly in recent years, with Russian exports to Thailand including fuel and energy, and Thai exports including agricultural and food products. Key industries for cooperation include energy, real estate, defense, and agriculture. Challenges to investment include regulatory issues and economic instability, but opportunities exist in sectors such as agriculture, mining, and infrastructure development. Several successful Thai investments in Russia are highlighted.
Moldova unilaterally declares its EU membership aspirations and started the process of economic, legal and institutional approximation targeted at establishing free market economy, stable democratic institutions and sound legal system. In the paper the authors made an attempt to assess the competitive and institutional capacity of Moldova in the context of EU membership requirements. It presents Polish achievements in European integration process as a CEE successful way towards full membership. The paper is devoted to transfer know how on Polish experience in EU integration at first stages of the process, with the emphasis on assessment of fulfillment of Copenhagen criteria and the role of association stage in the integration process as a whole. Basing on Poland's example, it provides the recommendations for Moldova on possible ways of integration with the EU so that Moldovan economy and society would be able to benefit most from the process - in other words, to successfully conclude the transformation of economy and adjust law and state institutions to European standards.
The analysis does not cover the political aspects of Transdniestrian conflict as it is an important and broad issue that requires deep separate analysis. In the paper there is also no evaluation of cooperation within Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe since we consider Moldova as Eastern European country with clear geopolitical position neighboring Ukraine and Romania.
Authored by: Iurie Gotisan, Karina Kostrzewa, Eugen Osmochescu
Published in 2005
This document analyzes the effects of the 2004 EU enlargement, Russia's entry into the WTO, and a potential free trade agreement between Russia and the enlarged EU using a computable general equilibrium model. It finds small positive effects on GDP and trade from EU enlargement. Russia's WTO accession on top of an enlarged EU is estimated to further increase trade somewhat. A free trade agreement between Russia and the EU could significantly boost bilateral trade flows, with overall moderate economic impacts.
The efforts to stabilize the Moldovan economy after the crisis of 1998 have been largely successful. The country avoided international default as current account position radically improved, cooperation with international financial institutions was re-established and a significant primary fiscal surplus was achieved. As a result, the exchange rate was stabilised and inflation substantially reduced. Moreover, several important structural reforms were implemented and privatisation of key-industries pursued with much more determination than previously. However, only economic growth would bring real solutions to the persistent problems of external and internal imbalances of the Moldovan economy and would allow the country to face its heavy debt burden in the future. Unfortunately, prospects for sustainable growth remain weak, as the most important issues that constrain private entrepreneurship and investments have not been effectively tackled. These issues include: lack of territorial integrity, ineffective legal system, widespread corruption and rent seeking. It is unlikely that these problems can be solved until the Moldovan parliament assumes full ownership of reform process.
Authored by: Larisa Lubarova, Oleg Petrushin, Artur Radziwill
Published in 2000
Limited Liability Partnership “AKTAM Project Management Ltd.” was created in 2013 with a purpose of provision of drilling services, chemical analyses, development of the design of the mining operations, preparation of feasibility study, provision of geological works to the mining companies and metallurgical plants. In addition, company supplies mining trucks, underground loaders, drilling equipment and tools, spare parts.
This document provides background information on Kyrgyzstan's accession to the WTO. It discusses the country's initial conditions, including its geography, history as part of the Soviet Union, and post-independence economic challenges. It describes Kyrgyzstan's small, aid-dependent economy and its strategic choice to pursue an open, liberal trade policy and multilateral approach to economic cooperation as it transitioned to a market system. The document then examines Kyrgyzstan's process of WTO accession in greater detail.
This paper evaluates the implications of Eastern EU enlargement with the use of a computable general equilibrium model. The focus is on accession to the Single Market, with explicit modelling of the removal of border costs and costs of producing to different national standards. The results indicate significant welfare gains for the CEECs (volume of GDP increases by 1.4-2.4%) and modest gains for the EU. The steady state scenarios, which allow for the capital stock adjustment in response to higher return to capital, more than double the static welfare gains.
Authored by: Maryla Maliszewska
Published in 2004
Both the economic and the political economy arguments point to fast EMU accession of NMS. Looking at the 'classical' optimum currency area criteria, i.e. trade integration, co-movement of business cycles and actual factor mobility, NMS' record is not worse, on average, than that of the current Eurozone members, and should further improve before Eurozone entry, decreasing risk of their exposure to idiosyncratic shocks. After joining the EMU, the common currency should help NMS to develop additional intra- EMU trade links, further synchronize business cycle and increase factor mobility. Both theoretical arguments and empirical experience demonstrates that so-called real convergence accompanies nominal convergence, and that there is synergy rather than a trade-off between the two.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2005
An attempt is made to explore the basic implications of differences in productivity growth rates in countries within a monetary union and tailor them to the case of the EU new member countries running up to the EMU. By using the mathematical model of Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect and linking productivity and relative price dynamics with monetary policy, it is shown that: 1) productivity growth in faster-growing countries (FGC) leads to either inflation there, or union-wide exchange rate appreciation, or both in certain proportions, depending on the monetary policy stance taken by the union, but does not cause increase in inflation in slower-growing countries (SGC) by itself, unless the union’s monetary authorities take pro-inflationary policy; 2) because of presence of FGC, the SGC do not become less competitive in the world, and can benefit from increased export of their goods to FGC, provided their labour markets are flexible enough; 3) the real challenge for SGC posed by FGC is not inflation, but rather loss of jobs and export revenues, if their labour markets are not flexible enough to adjust under tight union-wide monetary policy aimed at keeping the union-wide overall price level unchanged, or the labour productivity increase in FGC is not met by adequate improvement in labour productivity in SGC. It should be noted, however, that this ‘adequate improvement’ is enough to constitute only a fraction of the productivity growth in FGC.
Authored by: Nikolai Zoubanov
Published in 2003
The document discusses several proposals for the Bank of Moscow to establish an international financial center (IFC) in Russia, including:
1) Developing IFC centers in multiple cities, such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Novosibirsk.
2) Increasing citizens' financial competence through educational programs and marketing.
3) Implementing legal initiatives to attract foreign investment.
4) Restructuring the Bank of Moscow's services to better support the IFC through online banking and financial planning tools.
This paper is focused on the development of a proper macroeconomic strategy in the process of Poland's accession to the European Monetary Union. It is argued that due to legal and political considerations Poland may not opt out from EMU participation. The country will however command net gains from participation in the eurozone, mainly due to reduced macroeconomic and microeconomic uncertainty. In order to achieve even higher gains it is necessary to reduce price and wage rigidities, eliminate constraints on free movement of labor, further promote trade links with EU and its diversification. Loss of monetary and exchange rate instruments will require responsive but generally conservative fiscal policy. Particularly, as Poland might experience major economic upturn at the outset in the EU membership, the country should achieve positive budget balance by this time. It will allow for fiscal expansion in case of future negative asymmetric shock or recessions. Fiscal policy should be therefore assigned to improve saving-investment balance and consequently current account, so that direct inflation targeting is well placed to achieve fulfillment of Maastricht price stability criterion. Real exchange rate is not an independent instrument to target current account, as real appreciation of domestic currency is unavoidable due to rapid productivity gains in Poland. Finally, the accession to EMU should follow promptly the accession to EU. Unilateral introduction of Euro is too risky for banking and real sectors. Slower process of joining EMU would hamper credibility of macroeconomic adjustment commitment.
Authored by: Arthur Radziwill
Published in 2001
This document provides a landscaping report on financial inclusion in Russia. It discusses the demand for and usage of formal financial services in Russia, noting that remote, rural, older and lower-income populations face greater financial exclusion. It also examines the supply landscape, including banks, microfinance institutions, payment service providers and financial infrastructure/initiatives. Key challenges include expanding access to underserved areas, improving financial literacy and consumer protections, and determining the long-term impacts of recent legislation on financial inclusion. The report provides an overview of the evolving financial inclusion ecosystem in Russia.
This document provides a landscaping report on financial inclusion in Russia. It discusses the demand for and usage of formal financial services in Russia, noting that remote, rural, older and lower-income populations face greater financial exclusion. It also examines the supply landscape, including banks, microfinance institutions, payment service providers and financial infrastructure/initiatives. Key challenges include expanding access to underserved areas, improving financial literacy and consumer protections, and determining the long-term impacts of recent legislation on financial inclusion. The report aims to analyze opportunities and recommendations to further advance financial inclusion in Russia.
The document discusses business and human resource issues facing the hotel industry in Russia. It notes that while Russia has experienced rapid tourism growth, the hotel industry struggles with understaffing due to a lack of trained hospitality workers and high employee turnover. International hotels have addressed this through joint ventures with Russian partners and investments in hospitality education to develop the local workforce. However, cultural and management style differences between foreign and Russian employees continue to pose challenges.
The paper first considers why central European countries wish to join EMU soon. The main reasons are the risk of macroeconomic instability they face outside the euro zone if they wish to grow quickly. At the same time, Central Europe is highly integrated as regards trade with EMU, so it is little exposed to asymmetric shocks that would require a realignment of exchange rates. Finally, it is argued that there is no cost in terms of slower growth from EMU accession, so that there is no trade-off, as has been claimed, between nominal convergence to EMU and real convergence to EU average GDP levels. Second, the paper assesses whether Central European accession to EMU would be disadvantageous to current members. It concludes that accession cannot increase inflationary pressure on existing EMU members, as has been claimed, but that slow growing members of EMU might suffer increased unemployment, unless they increase the flexibility of their labour markets. Incumbent members may also be unwilling to share power with Central Europeans in EMU institutions.
Authored by: Jacek Rostowski
Published in 2003
This paper discusses the processes of nominal and real convergence and their dependence on exchange rate regimes adopted in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) in thecontext of their future EMU accession. We focus our argument on the possibility of trade-off between the pace of disinflation and the maintenance of competitiveness and growth. Fixednominal exchange rate shifts the burden of adjustment on to the tradable sector but whether this pressure results in faster restructuring and faster productivity growth or becomes a straightjacket for the economy is an open question. The paper implements a simple empirical assessment of convergence of inflation to EU levels and economic growth of 7 CEE economies which had adopted different exchange rate regimes in period 1993-2002. Results indicate that fixed exchange rates seem to have been a better tool of fighting inflation as compared to floating exchange rates or intermediate regimes. The presence of a fixed exchange rate has also been characterised byhigher real GDP growth rates implying an absence of trade-off between nominal and real convergence in the investigated sample. Qualifications attached to these results are discussed.
Authored by: Przemyslaw Kowalski
Published in 2003
The purpose of this paper is to look at implications of the EMU accession on international trade flows of the new member states with members of the enlarged EU. I begin with the evaluation of an early impact of the EMU on trade based on a gravity model. The results are then employed in the calculation of potential levels of trade of the Central and East European countries. The results show a high degree of trade integration between most of the new member states and the EU except for Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. In trade among the new member states, potential trade flows by far exceed actual levels for all countries except the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Authored by: Maryla Maliszewska
Published in 2004
International Finance - EM Strasbourg Business School - Final Research Paper ...Daniel Patino Vieito
This research paper examines the role of trade finance in international trade and its impact on the 2008-2009 global trade collapse. It discusses how trade finance provides working capital and insures risks for 90% of world trade. During the financial crisis, trade finance supply contracted significantly, restricting trade credit availability. Combined with falling demand for imports due to recession, this shortage in trade finance contributed to a 30% decline in world trade, the steepest since the Great Depression. The paper reviews academic literature on the relationship between trade finance and trade volumes, and evidence from the IMF on the crisis impact. It also outlines policy responses to address trade finance gaps and lessons learned for mitigating future shortages.
he paper examines theoretical literature, recent EMU accession examples, and current CEECs performance in search of the optimal currency regime for meeting the Maastricht criteria. Currency board arrangements seems to provide the fastest convergence. For other regimes, the markets may have theoretical and historical reasons to believe in the government's temptation to devalue on the ERM-2 entry. The government should announce the final date, and, possibly indicate the final exchange rate for the regime switch to avoid excessive currency and yield volatility. It should also underscore the central bank’s and EU authorities importance (even if non-existent) in the parity setting process to avoid excessive domestic debt inflation premium ahead of the accession. Recent experience shows that it will be easy to get rid of the remaining influence of cross rates on CEECs exchange rates.
Authored by: Mateusz Szczurek
Published in 2003
Financial market integration and growth 2011sirio788
This document provides an introduction to a volume on financial market integration and growth in the European Union. It discusses how policy events over the last two decades have influenced the structure of financial markets among original EU members and incentives to invest in new member economies. The volume aims to study relevant European and global dynamics through chapters focusing on topics like the transatlantic banking crisis, financial market integration in the EU15, and the impact of financial development and foreign direct investment in countries like Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain as well as new member states. The introduction argues that new member countries represent both a geographical enlargement of the EU and a natural experiment in institutional changes and economic internationalization, providing analytical challenges to understand developments across the EU.
This paper quantifies transparency of monetary policy in the three EU New Member States that have adopted direct inflation targeting strategy. Two measures of transparency are applied. The institutional measure reflects the extent to which a central bank discloses information that is related to the policymaking process. The behavioural measure reflects the clarity among the financial market participants about the true course of monetary policy. The paper shows an ambiguous association between the two measures of transparency, which may be attributed to the active exchange rate management policy that undermines the actual transparency proxied by the behavioural measure.
Authored by: Mariusz Jarmuzek, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Artur Radziwill
Published in 2004
The document discusses trade and investment cooperation between Thailand and Russia. It provides a chronology of the relationship between the two countries beginning in the 19th century. Bilateral trade has grown significantly in recent years, with Russian exports to Thailand including fuel and energy, and Thai exports including agricultural and food products. Key industries for cooperation include energy, real estate, defense, and agriculture. Challenges to investment include regulatory issues and economic instability, but opportunities exist in sectors such as agriculture, mining, and infrastructure development. Several successful Thai investments in Russia are highlighted.
Moldova unilaterally declares its EU membership aspirations and started the process of economic, legal and institutional approximation targeted at establishing free market economy, stable democratic institutions and sound legal system. In the paper the authors made an attempt to assess the competitive and institutional capacity of Moldova in the context of EU membership requirements. It presents Polish achievements in European integration process as a CEE successful way towards full membership. The paper is devoted to transfer know how on Polish experience in EU integration at first stages of the process, with the emphasis on assessment of fulfillment of Copenhagen criteria and the role of association stage in the integration process as a whole. Basing on Poland's example, it provides the recommendations for Moldova on possible ways of integration with the EU so that Moldovan economy and society would be able to benefit most from the process - in other words, to successfully conclude the transformation of economy and adjust law and state institutions to European standards.
The analysis does not cover the political aspects of Transdniestrian conflict as it is an important and broad issue that requires deep separate analysis. In the paper there is also no evaluation of cooperation within Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe since we consider Moldova as Eastern European country with clear geopolitical position neighboring Ukraine and Romania.
Authored by: Iurie Gotisan, Karina Kostrzewa, Eugen Osmochescu
Published in 2005
This document analyzes the effects of the 2004 EU enlargement, Russia's entry into the WTO, and a potential free trade agreement between Russia and the enlarged EU using a computable general equilibrium model. It finds small positive effects on GDP and trade from EU enlargement. Russia's WTO accession on top of an enlarged EU is estimated to further increase trade somewhat. A free trade agreement between Russia and the EU could significantly boost bilateral trade flows, with overall moderate economic impacts.
The efforts to stabilize the Moldovan economy after the crisis of 1998 have been largely successful. The country avoided international default as current account position radically improved, cooperation with international financial institutions was re-established and a significant primary fiscal surplus was achieved. As a result, the exchange rate was stabilised and inflation substantially reduced. Moreover, several important structural reforms were implemented and privatisation of key-industries pursued with much more determination than previously. However, only economic growth would bring real solutions to the persistent problems of external and internal imbalances of the Moldovan economy and would allow the country to face its heavy debt burden in the future. Unfortunately, prospects for sustainable growth remain weak, as the most important issues that constrain private entrepreneurship and investments have not been effectively tackled. These issues include: lack of territorial integrity, ineffective legal system, widespread corruption and rent seeking. It is unlikely that these problems can be solved until the Moldovan parliament assumes full ownership of reform process.
Authored by: Larisa Lubarova, Oleg Petrushin, Artur Radziwill
Published in 2000
Limited Liability Partnership “AKTAM Project Management Ltd.” was created in 2013 with a purpose of provision of drilling services, chemical analyses, development of the design of the mining operations, preparation of feasibility study, provision of geological works to the mining companies and metallurgical plants. In addition, company supplies mining trucks, underground loaders, drilling equipment and tools, spare parts.
This document provides background information on Kyrgyzstan's accession to the WTO. It discusses the country's initial conditions, including its geography, history as part of the Soviet Union, and post-independence economic challenges. It describes Kyrgyzstan's small, aid-dependent economy and its strategic choice to pursue an open, liberal trade policy and multilateral approach to economic cooperation as it transitioned to a market system. The document then examines Kyrgyzstan's process of WTO accession in greater detail.
This paper evaluates the implications of Eastern EU enlargement with the use of a computable general equilibrium model. The focus is on accession to the Single Market, with explicit modelling of the removal of border costs and costs of producing to different national standards. The results indicate significant welfare gains for the CEECs (volume of GDP increases by 1.4-2.4%) and modest gains for the EU. The steady state scenarios, which allow for the capital stock adjustment in response to higher return to capital, more than double the static welfare gains.
Authored by: Maryla Maliszewska
Published in 2004
Both the economic and the political economy arguments point to fast EMU accession of NMS. Looking at the 'classical' optimum currency area criteria, i.e. trade integration, co-movement of business cycles and actual factor mobility, NMS' record is not worse, on average, than that of the current Eurozone members, and should further improve before Eurozone entry, decreasing risk of their exposure to idiosyncratic shocks. After joining the EMU, the common currency should help NMS to develop additional intra- EMU trade links, further synchronize business cycle and increase factor mobility. Both theoretical arguments and empirical experience demonstrates that so-called real convergence accompanies nominal convergence, and that there is synergy rather than a trade-off between the two.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2005
An attempt is made to explore the basic implications of differences in productivity growth rates in countries within a monetary union and tailor them to the case of the EU new member countries running up to the EMU. By using the mathematical model of Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect and linking productivity and relative price dynamics with monetary policy, it is shown that: 1) productivity growth in faster-growing countries (FGC) leads to either inflation there, or union-wide exchange rate appreciation, or both in certain proportions, depending on the monetary policy stance taken by the union, but does not cause increase in inflation in slower-growing countries (SGC) by itself, unless the union’s monetary authorities take pro-inflationary policy; 2) because of presence of FGC, the SGC do not become less competitive in the world, and can benefit from increased export of their goods to FGC, provided their labour markets are flexible enough; 3) the real challenge for SGC posed by FGC is not inflation, but rather loss of jobs and export revenues, if their labour markets are not flexible enough to adjust under tight union-wide monetary policy aimed at keeping the union-wide overall price level unchanged, or the labour productivity increase in FGC is not met by adequate improvement in labour productivity in SGC. It should be noted, however, that this ‘adequate improvement’ is enough to constitute only a fraction of the productivity growth in FGC.
Authored by: Nikolai Zoubanov
Published in 2003
The document discusses several proposals for the Bank of Moscow to establish an international financial center (IFC) in Russia, including:
1) Developing IFC centers in multiple cities, such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Novosibirsk.
2) Increasing citizens' financial competence through educational programs and marketing.
3) Implementing legal initiatives to attract foreign investment.
4) Restructuring the Bank of Moscow's services to better support the IFC through online banking and financial planning tools.
This paper is focused on the development of a proper macroeconomic strategy in the process of Poland's accession to the European Monetary Union. It is argued that due to legal and political considerations Poland may not opt out from EMU participation. The country will however command net gains from participation in the eurozone, mainly due to reduced macroeconomic and microeconomic uncertainty. In order to achieve even higher gains it is necessary to reduce price and wage rigidities, eliminate constraints on free movement of labor, further promote trade links with EU and its diversification. Loss of monetary and exchange rate instruments will require responsive but generally conservative fiscal policy. Particularly, as Poland might experience major economic upturn at the outset in the EU membership, the country should achieve positive budget balance by this time. It will allow for fiscal expansion in case of future negative asymmetric shock or recessions. Fiscal policy should be therefore assigned to improve saving-investment balance and consequently current account, so that direct inflation targeting is well placed to achieve fulfillment of Maastricht price stability criterion. Real exchange rate is not an independent instrument to target current account, as real appreciation of domestic currency is unavoidable due to rapid productivity gains in Poland. Finally, the accession to EMU should follow promptly the accession to EU. Unilateral introduction of Euro is too risky for banking and real sectors. Slower process of joining EMU would hamper credibility of macroeconomic adjustment commitment.
Authored by: Arthur Radziwill
Published in 2001
This document provides a landscaping report on financial inclusion in Russia. It discusses the demand for and usage of formal financial services in Russia, noting that remote, rural, older and lower-income populations face greater financial exclusion. It also examines the supply landscape, including banks, microfinance institutions, payment service providers and financial infrastructure/initiatives. Key challenges include expanding access to underserved areas, improving financial literacy and consumer protections, and determining the long-term impacts of recent legislation on financial inclusion. The report provides an overview of the evolving financial inclusion ecosystem in Russia.
This document provides a landscaping report on financial inclusion in Russia. It discusses the demand for and usage of formal financial services in Russia, noting that remote, rural, older and lower-income populations face greater financial exclusion. It also examines the supply landscape, including banks, microfinance institutions, payment service providers and financial infrastructure/initiatives. Key challenges include expanding access to underserved areas, improving financial literacy and consumer protections, and determining the long-term impacts of recent legislation on financial inclusion. The report aims to analyze opportunities and recommendations to further advance financial inclusion in Russia.
This document provides a landscaping report on financial inclusion in Russia. It summarizes that access to formal financial services has increased rapidly in recent years but remains unequal, with remote, rural, older and lower-income populations most excluded. It also notes initiatives to improve financial literacy and establish a financial ombudsman to strengthen consumer protection. The report then analyzes demand and usage patterns before examining the landscape of various financial service providers, infrastructure developments and challenges and opportunities to further advancing inclusion in Russia.
The document provides an overview of the Russian venture capital market in 2014. It notes that 2014 saw increased activity from pre-seed and seed investors, with over 100 deals from the Internet Initiatives Development Fund. However, larger businesses were generally inactive in co-investing. Exits from investments increased from 11 in 2013 to 29 in 2014 as investors realized prospects were no longer viable due to economic problems. The amount received from exits decreased as well. Overall the market saw over 450 deals but the flow of venture capital investments slowed compared to previous years.
We are delighted to present our July newsletter, which covers developments in the products and services offered by the exchange, as well as news, interviews, and market data.
Accenture aims to enter the Russian consulting market and grow its revenue to $100 million by 2020. It will focus on communications/high-tech, financial services, and resources industries. Acquiring BDO-Russia's consulting department could help Accenture achieve this goal by providing an established client base and expertise in these strategic sectors. The acquisition is estimated to cost around $74 million and have a payback period of 4-5 years given BDO-Russia's profitability.
Accenture aims to enter the Russian consulting market and grow its revenue to $100 million by 2020. It will focus on communications/high-tech, financial services, and resources industries. Acquiring BDO-Russia's consulting department could help achieve this goal, providing expertise in strategic sectors and a client base, while preserving BDO's existing links. The acquisition is estimated to cost around $74 million and have a payback period of 4-5 years.
Rye, Man & Gor Securities is pleased to present a fresh issue of the Russian Venture Capital Market Overview, which includes a rundown of Russia’s venture capital market in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The primary goal of this report is to make Russia’s innovative sector more alluring for both foreign and domestic investors and increase the efficiency of contacts between investors and innovative companies seeking financing.
This document discusses barriers facing foreign investors in Russia and Central Asia. It identifies the main barriers as lack of accurate information about doing business in the region, and the complexity and inefficiency of business environments. Corruption and lack of rule of law are also issues. Recent government efforts to improve investment climate include a ten-point plan to increase transparency and eliminate barriers. Experts discuss these measures and whether they adequately address key problems deterring foreign investment.
The document summarizes Accenture Russia's participation in the 17th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Some key details include:
- It was the first time Accenture Russia took part in the major economic forum joined by 7,000 participants from 71 countries.
- Sander van't Noordende, Accenture's Group CEO of Management Consulting, spoke at a session on strategies for Russian firms expanding globally.
- Accenture signed an agreement with Skolkovo Foundation to create an innovation center specializing in predictive analytics to support clients in industries like energy and oil/gas.
- Accenture organized social media walls and supported media coverage to promote their involvement in the forum
The paper discusses the role of regional public goods vs. global goods in influencing postcommunist transition in Central and Eastern Europe and former USSR with special attention given to three particular factors: (i) external anchoring of national reform process; (ii) international trade arrangements and (iii) international financial stability.
Authored by: Marek Dabrowski, Artur Radziwill
Published in 2007
1. The speaker discusses opportunities for business growth in Russia and the BRIC markets, noting Russia's strong economic growth rate and potential opportunities in the printing industry.
2. While there are some risks in doing business in Russia related to bureaucracy and corruption, the speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the local business culture and developing the right local strategies and partnerships.
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Russian Internet Deal Book: Invesments in Russian Internet Companies and Star...Михаил Тукнов
The document summarizes investment trends in the Russian internet market from 2012-2013. Some key points:
- Total investments grew 18% in 2012 to $643M and 4% in 2013 to $667M, decelerating from 2011.
- Funding increased across all stages but most in later rounds. Post-money valuations are 6.5-1.7x cheaper than in the US.
- Exits grew from 10 in 2010 to 30 in 2013, including major acquisitions like Sapato.ru and Kinopoisk.ru.
- Russia is in the early stages of venture capital and many funds may begin raising new funds in 2014-2015.
Russian internet Deal Book 2012-2013 Fastlane VenturesAndrey Kulikov
The document summarizes investment trends in the Russian internet market from 2012-2013. Some key points:
- Total investments grew 18% in 2012 to $643M and 4% in 2013 to $667M, decelerating from 2011.
- Funding increased across all stages, especially later rounds. Post-money valuations are 6.5-1.7x lower than in the US.
- Exits grew from 10 in 2010 to 30 in 2013, including major acquisitions of Sapato.ru and Kinopoisk.ru.
- Russia is in the early stages of venture capital and many funds may begin raising second funds in 2014-2015.
Russian Internet Dealbook 2012 2013 Fastlane VenturesVasily Ryzhonkov
Research about investments in Russian Internet Startups. Just to remind you that Russia in 2013 had the biggest Internet users in Europe around 60 mln people.
Russian Venture Capital Market Overview 1st Quarter 2015Rmg partners
The Russian venture capital market shrank significantly in the first quarter of 2015, with deal numbers and investment value nearly halving from the previous year. State entities accounted for over half of all deals but private capital still dominated total investment. There were no exit deals due to devaluation reducing asset values. Early-stage deals increased while growth-stage deals declined, as that stage was seen as too risky with slow returns. Several later-stage projects are now seeking buyers after capital injections were delayed.
This document summarizes a study on the impact of donor policies on small and medium enterprise (SME) assistance projects in post-Soviet Russia. It discusses how Western donor organizations initially promoted "shock therapy" economic reforms that contributed to Russia's difficulties. The study examines an SME development project in Samara, Russia undertaken from 1995-1996 by the author's organization with co-funding from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Swiss government. It aimed to help the city develop start-up SMEs and support the conversion of state enterprises to the private sector. The document provides context on the importance of SMEs to economic development and the challenges of transitioning Russia's economy from Soviet-era central planning to a
This document is the first public analytical report on implementing Russia's Strategy for Innovative Development from 2013-2020. It was prepared by the Russian Venture Company with assistance from the Ministry of Economic Development and over 80 experts. The report assesses progress on the strategy's goals of transitioning Russia to an innovation-driven economy through developing human capital, encouraging innovative businesses, improving commercialization of research, creating an innovative state and building innovation infrastructure. It contains conclusions and recommendations based on input from startups, investors, technology firms and other market participants.
This document provides an overview of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2015, including:
- The forum included over 150 events with 668 speakers from 120 countries discussing topics related to stability and growth.
- Key events included a plenary session with the Russian President Putin and roundtables with ministers and heads of state from countries like China, Iraq, and Mongolia.
- Over 10,000 people attended including CEOs from 486 Russian and 319 foreign companies.
- 205 agreements were signed totaling RUB 293.4 billion, including RUB 44.2 billion in credit agreements.
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Doing business in russia research project vm consult 2011
1. 1
Doing Business in Russia -
Industry Overview
Prepared by VM Consult
Russian Federation
January 2011
www.consultvm.com
VM Consult – “Your first step onto a new market”
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2. 2
Executive Summary
This report will present a general overview of the most important elements of the Russian market for a
target audience of European managers and executives considering a move onto the Russian market.
After providing a brief introduction we move on to describing the leading industries in the country and
with the help of statistical data and our own experience we analyse the current state of these sectors,
identify trends and try to provide a forecast for the future. Next we look at potential driving factors for
business relations between Russia and the EU and explain our choice. Following this we draw on our
own professional experience as well as reports, testimonies and other data in order to identify and
inform about the challenges of doing business in Russia for a foreign entrepreneur. In the conclusion we
draw all of our points together and try to provide some points for further reflection.
VM Consult – “Your first step onto a new market”
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3. 3
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1
About Us ........................................................................................................................................................ 3
Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 4
2. Leading Industries in Russia .................................................................................................................. 6
2.1 Energy.................................................................................................................................................. 6
2.2 Construction ........................................................................................................................................ 6
2.3 Metallurgy and minerals ..................................................................................................................... 7
2.4 Retail and consumer............................................................................................................................ 9
2.5 Automotive........................................................................................................................................10
2.6 Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) ......................................................................11
2.7 Chemicals ..........................................................................................................................................11
3. Driving Factors for Russia-EU Business ...............................................................................................12
4. General Challenges of Doing Business in Russia .................................................................................15
5. Conclusions .........................................................................................................................................17
6. Sources ................................................................................................................................................18
7. Contacts...............................................................................................................................................20
About Us
VM Consult is an international business consulting firm that specialises in Russian market entry
consulting. We create value for our clients through attaining a considerable increase in the probability of
the success of their venture onto Russian market.
We offer a full spectrum of services for foreign small- and medium-sized enterprises wishing to break
into the challenging Russian market - from preliminary market research to building of local partner
networks, from analysis of the economic expediency of working in Russia to support with product
localisation.
Our core advantages are:
- Result based pricing (we are confident in achieving positive results and are able to base part of our
price on achieved results)
VM Consult – “Your first step onto a new market”
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4. 4
- Holistic approach (working with our client we suggest not a set of activities, but a complex approach
aligned with the client's goals)
- Industry experience (we can involve not just marketing professionals in projects, but also specialists
with specific industry experience)
VM Consult does not promise any secret tools or magic formulas that will provide you with enormous
results overnight, but working with us will help you to significantly increase the certainty of your foreign
market projects.
Foreword
The Russian market is regularly referred to as “untapped”, “a gold mine” or “very promising” but also
“risky” and “challenging”. It is the task of this report to assemble, arrange and analyse both primary and
secondary data from various sources including articles, books, interviews ,questionnaires and statistics
in order to provide an overview of the main issues, positive and negative, regarding doing business on
the Russian market. No study can claim to be entirely exhaustive but we aim to provide a general and
well-researched introduction to the topic for both our partners and clients, drawing on domestic, in-
house and international experience and testimonials.
1. Introduction
With a population of 142 million people and a place within the top 10 economies of the world, Russia is,
without a doubt, an emerging economic powerhouse. Following on from the tumultuous early years of
the transition to capitalism, since late 1999 and the advent of high oil prices and the arrival of President
Putin, the economic situation in Russia has stabilised and in many cases even flourished. On the back of
revenues from oil and gas the economy has been given the chance to consolidate and diversify and
Russia has climbed to become the EU’s third trading partner, with growth rates of around 6-7% over
the last 10 years and FDI per capita exceeding 3% of GDP, which is a figure comparable to China.1 It is
easy therefore to see why Russia has shed its image of lawlessness and danger and transitioned into a
promising and profitable market. As such, it seems that the administration has chosen to adhere to the
conviction of Putin’s political idol, former Prime Minister Stolypin, when the latter asserted:
“Give me twenty years of [domestic] peace, and you will not recognise Russia!”
However, problems remain. A poor infrastructure combined with instances of endemic corruption and
bureaucracy reminiscent of the Soviet era and a general uncertainty as to the long-term political
direction of the country lead some to write Russia off as “too risky”. Despite this many European
businesses continue to prosper in Russia, with a significant proportion even resolving to weather out the
worst of the financial crisis and bear any short-term losses associated with remaining in Russia in order
to maintain a foothold in what is seen as an invaluable strategic investment. As an expert international
1
De Souza, L.V., Foreign Investment in Russia in ECFIN Country Focus, Vol. 5 Issue 1, 11.1.08
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5. 5
business consultancy specialising in opening up the Russian market for European firms it is our job to
objectively analyse these benefits and risks for our clients and to assist them in whatever decision they
may take; this report will attempt to do just that.
Source: Rosstat
Source: The Economist/MSU-Ciber Market Potential Index for Emerging Markets, 2009
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6. 6
2. Leading Industries in Russia
2.1 Energy – 30.3% of EU crude oil, 7.9% of hard coal and 30.7% of natural gas imports originate in
Russia.2 Nordstream AG, a Russian-European joint venture to establish a natural gas pipeline under the
Baltic Sea is a prime example of the ability of Russian and European firms to work together and to
garner government support. Moreover, the recent BNP-Rosneft deal regarding exploitation of Arctic oil
fields is another landmark in EU-Russian business cooperation. Russia can boast more than 35% of
proved natural gas reserves and around 15% of total world oil reserves, but many of these reserves are
in inaccessible areas such as around the arctic shelf or in mountainous areas. In order to bring the sector
to full capacity enormous sustained investment is required, presenting enormous opportunities for
foreign engineering and energy firms.
2.2 Construction – The “Russian Transport 2008” project presented in Sochi details a 13 trillion
RUB investment package in infrastructure over the period 2010-2015. More than 17,000 km of federal,
regional and local roads, and more than 100 air fields will be built or upgraded. The capacity of Russian
sea ports will be increased to more than 400 million tons per year and more than 3000 km of new
railway lines will be constructed. Many of the projects will be Public Private Partnerships on the British
model and will seek foreign partners. This package, approved by the state Duma represents the largest
ever investment programme in Russia. Moreover, according to the British Chambers of Commerce
Russia export guide, demand for high quality building products is estimated to be growing at a rate of
10-15% per year and the market for building products valued at around 5 billion USD. According to
FINAM forecasts the construction market should grow to reach around 150-160 billion USD in 2011.
Problems on the market however include regulation, licensing and the presence of some powerful
competitors such as Inteco the PIC group and DSK-1. Nevertheless, with the Russian government’s
commitment to modernisation, the approaching Winter Olympics in 2014 in Sochi and the World Cup in
2018, prospects for the construction industry remain good.
“Furthermore, private business should play a part in implementing infrastructure projects. This only
makes sense because businesses display interest in these projects.
2
Eurostat
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7. 7
Another step is to make all forms of public-private partnership attractive and adopt long-overdue
amendments to the Law on Concessive Agreements. Business should receive full support from all
institutions concerned with development, including the Investment Fund.”3 V.V.Putin
2.3 Metallurgy and minerals – Russia is a leading producer of ferrous, non-ferrous and precious
metals. Metals and metal products make up the second largest group in Russian exports. Whereas the
oil and natural gas industries were either kept in government hands or reacquired during the
transitional period, the metal and mining sector is largely a private enterprise. Russia has huge reserves
of all of the world’s major raw materials and is responsible for around 14% of world extraction according
to the BRIC Spotlight report on the sector from February 2010.4 Metal prices fell significantly in the
second half of 2008 which has driven many industry leaders to consolidate and increase the efficiency of
their operations in the face of sluggish demand from the construction sector. Huge companies such as
Norilsk, RUSAL and Severstal are all looking to internationalise – a pattern which will seep down to
SMEs. Foreign technology and expertise is needed to modernise the industry especially in the areas of
prospecting and extraction. Moreover Chinese demand remains a key factor in determining the
prospects of these industries. Meanwhile the prices and demand for precious metals will continue to
grow in 2011.
Source: FINAM Report “Strategy for 2011”, 17.12.10
3
Putin, V.V., Sochi, 20/5/08 - http://government.ru/eng/docs/1383/
4
Thomas White Global Investing Report “Sitting on a Gold Mine – Metals and Mining in Russia”
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8. 8
VM Consult – “Your first step onto a new market”
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2.4 Retail and consumer – The Russian retail market has shown growth in every sector and is
currently the fastest growing market for luxury goods. In 2008, Russia was ranked the third most
attractive retail market in the Global Retail Development Index. Although established retailers have
carved out a space, the market is by no means saturated – a fact demonstrated by the continued
interest in the market shown by the Walmart chain, for example. As with the other sectors, problems
and challenges exist (and indeed some of these challenges have plagued Walmart itself) but the
expanding idea of a middle class lifestyle which radiates from Moscow and St. Petersburg outwards to
Russia’s 13 cities with around 1 million or more inhabitants is a strong incentive. FINAM estimates that
levels of real disposable income among the Russian population will increase by 2-4% in 2011.5
Source: AT Kearny Global Retail Development Index 2008
5
FINAM Report “Strategy for 2011”, 17.12.10
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Moreover, established giants such as Pepsi and Danone have moved onto the Russian retail market,
recognising the potential benefits. Pepsi’s acquisition of the Russian food and beverage firm Wimm-Bill-
Danone’s merger with Unimilk prove the high-level of attractiveness of the Russian retail market.
2.5 Automotive – The development of the automotive industry is one of the top governmental
priorities; a fact illustrated by the support shown for automobile manufacturers such as AvtoVAZ and by
the introduction of a scrappage scheme during the recent financial crisis. Many predictions were made
before the crisis as to the Russian automobile market’s potential to become the biggest in Europe and
although these have mostly not come true, car ownership remains at a third of European levels (0.213,
Rosstat) and the signs of economic recovery in late 2010/early 2011 may well put the market back on
track. Some international component manufacturers have entered the Russian market, mostly by means
of joint venture, but the number remains relatively low and so success stories such as Toyota and
Hyundai have the potential to be repeated on a smaller scale. The government measures surrounding
the market such as the scrappage scheme favour products (even foreign products) produced within
Russia, making the establishment of production facilities in Russia an attractive proposition. FINAM
estimates growth in the sector of imported vehicles in 2011 to be around 11% and growth in the sector
of foreign brand vehicles produced on Russian territory to be around 25%. Moreover, paradoxically, the
sometimes poor quality of Russian roads make the market for replacement components an especially
attractive proposition also. Localisation of products and services is also an important factor to consider
on the automotive market in Russia as recent changes in the law (December 2010) mean that up to 55%
of production must be locally sourced within 6 years for new factories and up to 60% for existing
factories. These changes favour Russian manufacturers and provide an additional, although not
insurmountable obstacle for foreign companies.
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Source FINAM Report, “Strategy for 2011”, 17.12.10
2.6 Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) – The Russian ICT market
represents 2% of the world ICT market and is still less developed in comparison with Western Europe.
More than half of the Russian market consists of hardware products but the highest potential growth
area is software products. Attesting to this fact, 70% of software is currently imported. The most
promising sectors are manufacturing, utilities and the public sector. Thanks to the strong Russian
educational system (around 2/3 of the population are educated to degree level) there is a large highly-
skilled and, in comparison with Western Europe, cost-effective labour pool. The 2.6 billion USD “e-
Russia” programme as well as the “Skolkovo” technology park project demonstrate the support and
focus on the industry emanating from the highest echelons of government and industry.
2.7 Chemicals
The market for chemicals had largely recovered and reached pre-crisis levels in Russia by the end of
2010 and the prospects for the future look good in most branches. The International Fertilizer
Association forecasts that by 2014 the volume of demand for mineral fertilizers should grow by almost
12%6 as a result both of population growth worldwide and the reducing amount of fertile farmland.
Owing to the wildfires which plagued Russia during the summer and caused significant damage to the
harvest, demand for fertilizing chemicals remains high. The nitric fertilizer industry appears to be
stagnating somewhat but the demand for phosphorous- and potassium-based fertilizers is forecast to
grow strongly.
6
International Fertilizer Industry Association
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3. Driving Factors for Russia-EU Business
Below are compiled some of, what we consider to be the most important factors which can, or already
are contributing to an intensification of Russia-EU business relations in the near future:
Current success stories (GSK, Fuller’s, M&S, BP, IKEA, Sbarro, Pepsi, Danone) – There is no shortage of
well-known European and American companies which have moved onto the Russian market and are
prospering. These success stories will serve as examples and inspiration for a plethora of SMEs to
emulate their actions.
Simplified visa regime – Following the “reset” of Russia-USA relations, talk of a simplified or even visa-
free regime with Russia has intensified in Europe. With the backing of key European states such as
Finland and Italy we can speculate that prospects for a visa-free (or much simplified) visa regime
between the EU and Russia within the next 5-10 years are good.
Growing Russian middle class – Estimates vary, but according to many Russian sociologists between 15-
25% of the country’s 142 million strong population belong to the middle class or middle class periphery.
Most of this number are concentrated in Russia’s two main cities: Moscow and St. Petersburg. The
UNDP report on Russia’s regions 2006-7 notes that: “Personal incomes of Muscovites are around 20% of
personal incomes in Russia, although the share of Moscow in the country’s population is only 7%”7 This
disparity between the regions and the centre represents a major opportunity for tenacious businesses
as the regions try frantically to match the living standards of the centre.
Average monthly salary per person
500,00 € (Euros)
450,00 €
400,00 €
350,00 €
300,00 €
250,00 €
200,00 €
150,00 €
100,00 €
50,00 €
0,00 €
2008 2009 2010
Year
Source: Rosstat
7
http://europeandcis.undp.org/home/show/9F97FBF7-F203-1EE9-BC75CCA4A0B0D23F, p.15
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Decline of growth rates in the traditional EU, US markets – Growth rates in traditional markets have
slowed in many cases and even stagnated in others with figures of below 1% becoming more and more
commonplace. By contrast, Russia even after the economic crisis retains a relatively low ration of per
capita GDP to national debt and seems to be emerging from the crisis in a good position with continued
focus on diversification to avoid the boom-bust cycles typical of resource-centred economies.
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Sochi 2014 – The approaching winter Olympics to be held in the Black Sea resort of Sochi in 2014
promise a wealth of opportunities for foreign firms and investors. A total of 47 transport infrastructure
construction and modernization projects are underway and there are also plentiful opportunities in
terms of telecoms, energy and environmental protection. The 14 billion USD investment package in
Sochi and the determination of the government to make the Olympics a domestic and international
success make Sochi an attractive proposition.
WTO membership for Russia – Should Russia finally be accepted into the WTO in 2011, solving the
current problems with the organisation on issues such as protectionism, state enterprises, the cost of
oil/gas and intellectual property rights, this will mean amongst other things that Russia will provide for
improved market access for foreign firms and a much healthier competitive environment domestically.
Through commitment to WTO rules and norms, trade with, investment in and expansion onto the
Russian market will become much more predictable for foreign firms, thus reducing the “risk cost” of
the entry ticket onto the market. The most recent reports suggest that Russia could be looking at an
April 2011 accession to the organisation.8
A closer political relationship – With an emerging foreign ministry in Europe and 4 roadmaps for
cooperation currently regulating EU-Russia cooperation, prospects for a closer political relationship are
good. Some of the most powerful and influential EU states such as Germany, the UK and Italy all pursue
very close ties with Russia and prize their business relationships with the country. The value of this
relationship is clearly illustrated by the fact that the UK remains one of Russia’s main investors despite
the plethora of political issues over the last years which could have de-railed this cooperation.
4. General Challenges of Doing Business in Russia
Bureaucracy - Corruption, the rule of law, questions as to the independence of the judiciary, red tape
and customs formalities are just some of the problems which can be located under the broad umbrella
of bureaucracy. The enduring problems with bureaucracy increase the transaction costs of any potential
venture on the Russian market and must be taken into account when planning.
Language and culture – Language remains an obvious stumbling block for many would be entrepreneurs
both from small and large companies. Competency in Russian as a foreign language remains relatively
low in Europe and despite improvements in the English language competency of many Russians it is still
to be expected that many firms will not communicate effectively in English. There are also some
differences in corporate culture and etiquette which should be anticipated and researched thoroughly.
The “risk” factor – This commonly heard cliché refers to the idea that Russia is an inherently risky place
to invest. Political stability has been achieved but it is young and widely criticised and the Russian
government is known for making u-turns in policy and sometimes attacking the very foreign assistance it
once encouraged, as in the case of BP and TNK in the late 90s/early 2000s. High-profile cases such as the
Yukos affair highlight the sometimes capricious nature of the authorities and while progress has been
8
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/wto-sights-set-on-april/429186.html
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made in the spheres of property rights and the rule of law, for example, a potential investor must
carefully weigh the benefits and risks associated with any move onto the Russian market.
Difficulty in raising capital – Businesses continue to complain of strict credit terms and a lack of
available credit from Russian banks. Interest rates remain high in comparison with Western
counterparts and terms remain mostly short which makes locating capital for large, complex and time-
consuming ventures difficult. The situation has improved somewhat with the entry onto the Russian
market of leading European and Western banks such as Barclays, HSBC, Raiffeisen and others but this
still lack of capital still hampers small- and medium-sized enterprises especially. Tax evasion as a means
to increase cash-flow still takes place among some Russian businesses.
Finding the right partner – In numerous surveys of representatives of business, (when the question is
included) difficulty in finding partners is nearly always listed as a key concern for foreign companies. The
difficulty is not one which besets only small- and medium-sized enterprises but, in fact, has proved a
decisive factor even for giants such as Walmart which recently closed (temporarily at least) its Russian
office which had been engaged in trying to find a partner for the retail behemoth for years.9 Visa
regulations for foreign workers have become stricter over the last years which makes finding local
partners a more pressing need yet language problems, cultural differences and a lack of equivalency to
Western/European standards all make the search for an effective partner a difficult affair.
Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Report Russia, 2010-11
Poor infrastructure in Russia – The Russian rail network is around 85,000km long, making it the second
longest in the world and it is this network which handles the bulk of freight transports within the
9
http://www.npr.org/2010/12/14/132046158/Wal-Mart-Abandons-Efforts-To-Enter-Russian-Market
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country.10 Major investment is occurring in Russian ports, especially in the Northern Sea route as this is a
prerequisite necessary to support Russia’s expanding role as an energy superpower and net exporter of
resources, yet they remain inefficient. The situation with the ports is compounded by the fact that most
rivers in the centre of the country run from North to South/South to North rather than from East to
West/West to East as may benefit the transport industry. Road density is very low at 40m per km² and
the majority of roads are of low quality with asphalt used in many cases as an inferior alternative to the
more expensive concrete. As a result average speeds achieved on the country’s roads remain low and
the frequency of accidents remains high. Moreover, there is an acute lack of roads throughout the
country with many more remote areas being served by nothing more than dirt roads. There is also a lack
of competition and know-how within the Russian logistics sector which can exacerbate the problems
with infrastructure. All in all, across rail, roads, sea ports and airports there is a lack of efficiency and a
dearth of modern facilities and practices.
5. Conclusions
Russia is no longer Churchill’s “riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma” but the market is
certainly challenging. A lot of the spectacular growth that has occurred has had more to do with
catching up than with real dynamic processes within the country but this does not detract from the fact
that a huge and tantalising market awaits the bold entrepreneur. For most experts the transition period
has come to an end and regardless of one’s views on the path of Russian democracy, from 1999
onwards we have seen a comparatively transformed climate for business and a resurgent population
desperate to share in the nation’s new-found wealth. The wealth is, however, not new-found; it has
always been there awaiting efficient and strategic exploitation and the direction and wisdom from
above necessary to see that an abundance of natural resources is only a stepping stone to long-term,
sustainable prosperity.
With the right assistance and preparation the Russian market presents numerous enticing opportunities
for both small- and medium-sized enterprises as well as multi-national corporations. As we have seen
throughout this report, prospects in Russia are promising and the country is emerging from recession in
a strong position but the pitfalls inherent to doing business here must be thoroughly researched,
understood and planned for before any venture onto the market. However, as the cliché goes, “fortune
favours the bold”.
10
Handbuch Logistik Russland | Doborjginidze / Abelmann 2005 (http://www.logit-
club.de/fileadmin/upload/Handbuch_Russland.pdf)
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Sources
1. AT Kearny Global Retail Development Index 2008
(http://www.atkearney.com/images/global/pdf/GRDI_2008.pdf)
2. British Chambers of Commerce – Russia Market Brief
(http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/zones/export/publications)
3. “British Investors show Interest in Russia's Hi-tech Hub” from RIA-Novosti
(http://en.rian.ru/business/20101112/161300566.html)
4. CIA World Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/)
5. De Souza, L.V., Foreign Investment in Russia in ECFIN Country Focus, Vol. 5 Issue 1, 11.1.08
6. Deutsch-Russische Aushandelskammer Report “100 Fragen und Antworten zum
Russlandsgeschaeft 2010”
(http://www.hk24.de/starterkit/views/printpdf.jsp?contentId=362236)
7. Euromonitor (http://www.euromonitor.com/)
8. Eurostat (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/)
9. Finam Report 17.12.10 by Vladimir Sergievskii, “Strategiya na 2011 god: dlya polucheniya
dokhodnosti pridyetsa zhertvovat’ likvidnosti” (Strategy for 2011: To Achieve Profitability you
have to Sacrifice Liquidity”)
10. Handbuch Logistik Russland | Doborjginidze / Abelmann 2005 (http://www.logit-
club.de/fileadmin/upload/Handbuch_Russland.pdf)
11. IMF World Economic Outlook Report, April 2009
(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf)
12. International Fertilizer Industry Association (http://www.international-fertilizer-industry-
association.net)
13. KMPG Report “Doing Business in Russia – Tax”
(http://www.kpmg.ru/russian/supl/library/taxlegal/Doing_business_in_Russia.pdf)
14. Rosstat (http://www.gks.ru)
15. “Russia’s Middle Class” in Businessweek
(http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_42/b3703093.htm)
16. “Russia’s Sickly Car Market” in The Economist (http://www.economist.com/node/14563660)
17. The Economist/MSU Ciber Market Potential Index for Emerging Markets, 2009
(http://globaledge.msu.edu/resourcedesk/mpi/)
18. The Government of the Russian Federation Website (http://premier.gov.ru/)
19. The Moscow Times (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/index.php)
20. Thomas White Global Investing Report “Sitting on a Gold Mine – Metals and Mining in Russia”
(http://www.kpmg.ru/russian/supl/library/taxlegal/Doing_business_in_Russia.pdf)
21. UKTI – Russia Business Guide
(http://www.ukti.gov.uk/export/countries/europe/easterneurope/russia/doingbusiness.html)
22. UKTI Sector Report “Automotive Russia”
(www.ukti.gov.uk/download/.../Automotive%20Sector%20in%20Russia.html)
23. United Nations Development Programme – Europe and the CIS (http://europeandcis.undp.org/)
24. WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2010-11
(http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2010-11.pdf)
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This report was compiled by Steven Kelly on behalf of VM Consult Ltd. in January 2011.
The author can be contacted with questions/comments at steven.kelly@consultvm.com or at
steven.kelly@mail.ru
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e-mail: info@consultvm.com
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