The document discusses open source intelligence (OSINT) and proposes improvements to the traditional intelligence cycle. It suggests that the focus should shift from mere collection of information to better analysis, visualization, sharing of perspectives, and contextualization. Specifically, it recommends using visual tools to understand complexity, encouraging interaction and diversity of views, introducing scenarios and "what ifs" to explore context, and communicating insights in a straightforward manner to decision-makers. The goal is to move beyond the current frameworks and harness the potential of open source information through new approaches and multi-stakeholder collaboration.

1. Gathering Open Source Information and Turning it into Intelligence [email_address] Horizon Scanning Applied:

2. Scope OSINF: A paradigm shift Improving the Intelligence Cycle Beyond the current framework

3. Key Conclusions Visualise Share Contextualise

4. Scope OSINF: A paradigm shift Improving the Intelligence Cycle Beyond the current framework

5. Information is no Longer Power Source: flickr.com

6. About OSINT Open Source Intelligence involves: collecting information from open sources; analysing it to produce actionable recommendations. Open sources include (inter alia): Media - newspapers, magazines, radio, television, and computer-based information (free or paying); Official data – e.g. government reports, budgets, demographics, hearings, press conferences, speeches; Professional and academic – e.g. conferences, symposia, professional associations, academic papers, and experts; Other sources - e.g. Commercial satellite imagery, weblogs, social networking on the internet, youtube videos. Source: EUROSINT FORUM

7. Open Sources: Just One of Many? Seven major intelligence disciplines : human intelligence, imagery intelligence, measurement and signature intelligence, signals intelligence, open-source intelligence , technical intelligence, counter-intelligence. The Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC®)

8. Open Sources: Not just Internet SATINT HUMINT SIGINT Classified Google Earth… „ ASKINT“… TV, Radio… Open … Satellite Human Signals

9. The Similarities & Differences A wide variety A wide variety Impact/speed is essential Accuracy is essential Vast quantity Limited quantity Many collectors/views Few collectors/views Can be wrong Can be wrong Open sources Classified sources

10. OSINF = A Flood of Information Source: Flickr.com

11. Hence the Challenges Complexity Information overload Immediate response fire-fighting

12. Key Conclusions Visualise complexity to use the right brain Share perspectives to minimise overload Contextualise responses in the bigger picture

13. Scope OSINF: A new paradigm Improving the Intelligence Cycle Beyond the current framework

14. The “Intelligence Cycle” Direction Collection Analysis Dissemin- ation Source: European Defence Agency

15. Why the Focus on Collection? “ We have information coming out of our ears, but we just cannot analyse it. Yet governments persist in spending 95% of their budgets on collecting more information rather than filtering and analysing it!” A government official at the EUROSINT FORUM

16. The “Intelligence Cycle” Direction Collection Analysis Dissemin- ation

17. The “Intelligence Cycle” Direction Collection Analysis Dissemin- ation

18. Change Perspectives Visualise complexity: See a new viewpoint Source: National Geographic

19. Source: Parmenides Eidos Software Suite

20. Beware of Experts Working Alone Interaction to get the big picture Quelle: Vernetztes Denken

21. Source: Parmenides Eidos Software Suite

22. Look to the Future “ Fluid” scenarios to explore context Quelle: Vernetztes Denken

23. Source: Parmenides Eidos Software Suite

24. Push the Limits of Scenarios Group Diversity Introduce “wild cards“/”black swans” Play and playact

25. The “Intelligence Cycle” Direction Collection Analysis Dissemin- ation

26. Leaders have Mental Maps We must change a leader‘s map to impact decisions Source: ” Maps for sale“

27. Visualise: Right Brain Power Source: Global Stress Points Matrix Oxford Analytica

28. Share: Give Deciders Options… Source: Parmenides Eidos Software Suite

29. … And Let Them Choose Source: Parmenides Eidos Software Suite

30. Contextualise: Keep it short… Source: Jane‘s Intelligence Review, Country Risk Scenario Methodology

31. … in a language they understand! Source: “Le Courrier International“ So, lets recapitulate, we have the choice between attacking Luxembourg, Canada and the Maldives… Err… actually Mr President its Syria, Iran or North Korea. Who is next?!?

32. Key Conclusions Visualise Share Contextualise

33. Scope OSINF: A new paradigm Improving the Intelligence Cycle Beyond the current framework

34. The “Intelligence” Cycle? “ Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results “ Bill O'Hanlon Direction Collection Analysis Dissemin- ation

35. Why Scan the Horizon ? “ Luck is when planning meets opportunity“ Seneca the Younger

36. But who should have planned? The key actors in finance: Government Bankers Insurance brokers Hedge Fund managers Parliamentarians Media Citizens Security = Multi-Stakeholder & Public Planning

37. Long Term Loses to Short Term Elections in 5 not 50 years! Lobbyists: why change unless forced? Fear of revealing a problem (secrecy) So: Build pressure with society-wide debates!

38. The Cynefin framework Source: David Snowden, Cognitive Edge Simple Cause and effect relations repeatable and predictable Complicated Cause and effect separated over time & space Complex Cause and effect coherent in retrospect do not repeat Chaotic No Cause and effect relationships perceivable

39. Financial Meltdown: Chaos? But is the current world chaotic? Time for tools beyond reason? Source: Rex Babin, the Sacramento Bee We must break out of the box

40. The Ultimate OSINT? Make citizens your analysts Keep the process public Tap the Collective Unconscious