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- 1. Oracle Fusion CloudDemand Management Product Overview
- 2. Demand planning challenges Sense,predict and shape demand Self Learning Shape NPI Collaboration Price Simulation Predict Statistical forecasting Causal analysis Machine learning Sense Shipments Orders Leading indicators Digital demand Social data Forecast accuracy Channel data Segmentation Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. 2
- 3. Copyright © 2022Oracle and/or its affiliates. 3 Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain Planning A complete solution Projects Configure to Order Mixed Mode Mfg. Distribution Service Multitier planning for sourcing, inventory, delivery and in-house or outsourced operations Accelerate Innovation Shape Business Outcomes Improve Profitability Unified planning Empowered planners Better results faster Demand Management Sales & Operations Planning Supply Planning Supply Chain Collaboration Supply Chain Visibility
- 4. Copyright © 2022Oracle and/or its affiliates. 4 Sales & Operations Planning Supply Planning Supply Chain Collaboration Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain Planning Demand Management Collaborative Forecasting Comparative analysis Demand Sensing Segmentation and affinity analysis Interactive Demand Shaping What-if scenarios Anticipate Demand Accurately Demand Planning Predictive Demand Modeling Forecasting and shaping Demand Management
- 5. Achieve Business Objectives Anticipate changes with multi- dimensional analysis Enhance plans using business insights and social collaboration Unify Demand-Supply process Shape Oracle Fusion Cloud Demand Management Differentiated capabilities to overcome challenges Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. 5 Improve Demand Visibility Assimilate multiple demand signals as needed Detect market condition changes Capture both qualitative & quantitative demand insights Manage Demand Variability Diagnose statistical forecast and constituents visually Resolve chronic issues via error and variability analysis Simulate forecast scenarios to make confident decisions Sense Predict
- 6. Sense Demand Transform diversedemand signals into actionable insights
- 7. Manage multiple demandsignals Improve demand visibility Consolidate all demand signals from multiple sources • Channel demand at different levels of detail • Different business units and product lines Incorporate leading indicators • Diverse features (events, weather, economic, and other causal factors) • External customer and market information Detect changes in market conditions via real- time access to demand signals and exception notifications • Short-term issues that require immediate intervention • Long-term strategic impacts 7 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 8. Sense demand changes 8Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. Demand shocks Regime changes Outliers Demand Shock Start Forecast considering pattern changes Automatically detect anomalies External events Uplift due to event (weather,…) Shock Expected End
- 9. Segment demand totailor your forecasts to different conditions Segment your supply chain based on flexible rules: • Static attributes (channel, geography, category) • Dynamic attributes (demand volume, demand patterns, price, cost) • Custom attributes may be used as well Segments automatically adjust to reflect business conditions • Manually override the assignments as needed Assign specific forecast models for a segment Analyze forecasts and other data by segment 9 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 10. Analyze demand signals Performa quick health-check by monitoring business KPIs Proactively anticipate your customer’s needs and changes by visually analyzing the plan and using guided navigation Perform simpler, better and faster analysis by personalizing the app Analyze customer segment demand trends by slicing and dicing the data and if needed, by using Microsoft Excel® 10 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 11. Capture business insights Enhanceview of your customers’ demand by overlaying your own knowledge Improve visibility by engaging all stakeholders, while capturing and preserving their view of the demand Assimilate forecast inputs anytime, anywhere by leveraging mobile devices Drive accountability by documenting plan discussions, decisions and assumptions 11 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 12. Collaborative Supply Forecast Collaborate with customers Seamlesslyincorporate customer demand into an enterprise plan Gather retail, distributor, franchisee, or channel partner consumption history to drive demand planning Compare customer and enterprise forecasts to uncover mismatches Share the collaborative supply forecast with customers to align expectations Monitor status and exceptions 12 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. Customers Retail Outlets Channel Partners Distributors Franchisees Consumption Forecasts Enterprise Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain Collaboratio n Oracle Fusion Cloud Demand Managemen t Automated file, web service, & portal access
- 13. Predict Demand Anticipate changeunder all business conditions
- 14. Leverage built-in intelligence Supervisedmachine learning algorithms Gather Incorporates new data streams as possible inputs Captures seasonality, trend, holidays, events, social sentiment, price, and other causal effects Model Multiple models analyzing for linear, non-linear, auto- regressive features Addresses intermittency, co- linearity, anomaly detection, level shifts, short and long trend components Refine Model ensemble using Bayesian information criteria Test robustness of models using cross-validation learning Automatically tuned to data availability 14 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. Historical data Machine Learning Forecast Models Multiple causal factors (features) Forecast Bayesian combine d model
- 15. Generate accurate forecasts Startwith a good baseline demand plan Predict forecast using machine learning, for your unique business segments • Use cross-validation learning to score forecast models using out-of-sample historical demand • Automatically detect anomalies such as outliers, regime changes or demand patterns such as intermittent demand Simulate the impact of any causal factor (e.g. price, events) or model parameters Gain transparency into forecast recommendations by visually analyzing constituents of the statistical forecast • Decompose the forecast to various influencing factors – seasonality, trends, events 15 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 16. 16 Copyright ©2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. Multiple Linear Regression Logistic Regression Analytical models 19 Models: Automatically applied, validated and combined using Bayesian Learning Moving Average/Exp. Smoothing Non-Linear Regression Intermittent Markov Chain Monte Carlo . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
- 17. Forecast configure-to-order products Incorporatecustomer preferences into product-mix by using attach rates to derive options forecast for models • Derive attach rates automatically • Supported flavors include pick to order Analyze and visualize forecast of both models and options simultaneously using out-of-the- box reports Improve customer service levels by simulating impact of changes to attach rates or forecast of model and options 17 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 18. Measure and trackforecast accuracy Monitor forecast accuracy by measuring error (MAPE, MAD) and Bias for each demand signal Detect chronic accuracy issues by analyzing each demand segment’s variability Detect trends in forecasts over time using waterfall analysis Improve accuracy by diagnosing root cause of inaccuracy and tracking improvements to statistical forecast 18 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 19. 19 Copyright ©2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. Manage new product introduction and product portfolio optimization Predictive and prescriptive forecasting using Planning Advisor* Predict customer demand and dynamically balance supply with demand • Accurately predict new product introduction (NPI) launch shape using a machine learning model that incorporates product attributes and other features likely to impact sales • Leverage timely advice to make better decisions • Gain deep insights based on previous launch product attributes Influencing factors Product Attributes Location Attributes Machine Learning Model Sales Data NPI Forecast *Additional subscriptions required
- 20. Existing Products HR Monitor:No Maximum Incline: 10 Maximum Track Speed: 10 Maximum Weight Capacity: 250 iFit Compatible: No Bluetooth Speakers: No Launch Date: Nov 2017 HR Monitor: Yes Maximum Incline: 15 Maximum Track Speed: 12 Maximum Weight Capacity: 300 iFit Compatible: No Bluetooth Speakers: No Launch Date: April 2018 HR Monitor: Yes Maximum Incline: 20 Maximum Track Speed: 12 Maximum Weight Capacity: 350 iFit Compatible: Yes Bluetooth Speakers: Yes Launch Date: Oct 2019 Optimize forecasts using Planning Advisor Example Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. 20 Target Product (Typically New Products) HR Monitor: Yes Maximum Incline: 15 Maximum Track Speed: 12 Maximum Weight Capacity: 300 iFit Compatible: Yes Bluetooth Speakers: Yes Launch Date: July 2021 XG Boost Machine Learning
- 21. Shape Demand Take initiativeto achieve business objectives
- 22. Incorporate business insights Enhancebaseline plan by adjusting forecast to incorporate business knowledge and stakeholder forecasts, with ease to audit and trace changes Easily identify areas of concern by monitoring exceptions to business rules and correcting forecast Collaborate with stakeholders documenting reasons for changes in forecasts using notes Edit forecast at aggregate level with the option to lock certain values, and then automatically disaggregate to lower level 22 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 23. Collaborate to achievea better forecast Achieve consensus on demand plan by collaborating with cross-functional team Incorporate executive decisions into demand plan by leveraging Oracle Sales & Operations Planning Cloud Enhance product availability and increase responsiveness by planning demand and supply simultaneously Incorporate customer insights as well through demand collaboration 23 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 24. Manage forecasts forproducts in all lifecycle stages Forecast new products by learning behavior from similar products and making volume adjustments • Manage new product launches by introducing them to new channels, customers and geographies • Improve new product forecast accuracy by reconciling marketing forecasts, and incorporating executive feedback • Configure demand impacts to similar products • Honor NPI dates Forecast for End-of-life (EOL) Products • Honor EOL dates • Configure demand transitions from EOL product to new product 24 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 25. Manage forecasts byplanning attributes Plan demand by project, grade, country of origin, or other attributes Manually enter forecast striped by attributes such as a project Optionally import an externally derived forecast striped by attributes or update manually entered forecast by attributes • Import from a file or via REST services • Automatically create combinations based on existing demand data Use the forecast with attributes as a demand schedule in Supply Planning cloud 25 Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates.
- 26. Continuously Replenish Demand Triggerdemand-driven replenishments and rebalance stock across your network
- 27. Copyright © 2022Oracle and/or its affiliates. 27 Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain Planning Demand Management Balance Service Levels and Inventory Replenishment Planning Inventory Policy Planning Match policy to demand patterns Segment Inventory Analysis Automatically classify item-locations Plan Performance & Simulation Monitor, simulate and update Replenishment Execution Set & forget routine replenishments Demand Management Sales & Operations Planning Supply Planning Supply Chain Collaboration
- 28. Copyright © 2022Oracle and/or its affiliates. Adapt to changing demand and supply requirements Leverage forward-looking, time-phased demand and order generation parameters Start with statistically forecasted demand Specify inventory policy by segment • Min-max, reorder point, fixed order calendar… • Specifiable as units or days Set key policy attributes • Safety stock, min, order quantity, max Use transit lead times to compute inventory policy parameters Visualize policy effectiveness Automatically review and update inventory policy parameters 28
- 29. Copyright © 2022Oracle and/or its affiliates. Automate replenishment execution Continuously evaluate supply requirements and generate replenishments Net change data collections for supplies and demands Frequent, fast, net-change plan runs to find item-locations with changes in supply or demand Automatic policy-based replenishment calculation for changed item-locations Auto release of replenishment orders Configure sell-in demand at stores to sell- through demand at DC conversions 29
- 30. 30 Copyright ©2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. Rebalance inventory across the network Use local excess to respond rapidly to shortages Quickly respond to local demand variations and reduce unnecessary replenishments Transfer supply from stores or depots that have an excess to other locations that need it Respond to localized supply shortages faster than centralized distribution centers could Avoid replenishing stores with new stock when unused supply’s already available nearby Store 1 Store 2 1-day lead time Excess Transfer (60 units) Replenishment Order (60 units) Distribution Center 3-day lead time ✘ ✓
- 31. Tailor, Integrate, andExtend Adapt Oracle Fusion Cloud Demand Management to your environment and way of working
- 32. Drive end-to-end supplychain planning processes Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. 32 Integrated Sales & Operations Planning Integrated Demand and Supply Planning
- 33. Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain Planning OpenInterfaces CSV based upload Office 365 Excel Integration REST Web Services Integration Automation OTBI, BIP, OAC Reports Easily integrate and extend Connect with applications, processes, desktop users, analytics and reporting Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. 33
- 34. Suppliers Integrate with theenterprise and beyond Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. 34 Customers Supply Chain Planning Sales Orders Forecast Commits Order Forecasts Order Management Global Order Promising Availability Sales Forecasts Receipts Operational Plans Financial Plans Enterprise Performance Management Product Development Supply Chain Collaboration New Items/ ECOs WIP Sales Demand Managemen t Supply Planning Sales & Operations Planning Capacity Purchase Requisitions Purchase Orders Work Orders On Hand Shipments Procurement Inventory Management Manufacturing Planned Orders
- 35. Business Intelligence &Reporting Custom Screen Colors, Fonts, Logo Additional Planning Data Fields Custom Labels Big Data & IoT Demand Sensing Complementary Custom Planning Apps Planning Content Management Measures Hierarchies Planning Cycles Planning Profiles Screen Layouts Exceptions Analytics Do More Within Your Cloud. Make It Your Own. Upgrade Safe. Easily Create New Processes & Applications. Enrich Your SaaS. Enrich Planning Cloud OCI Tailor Planning Cloud SaaS Configure Planning Cloud Work Your Way. Match Your Business & Goals. Social Collaboration Self-service configurability, upgrade protected Your Cloud. Your Way. Copyright © 2022 Oracle and/or its affiliates. 35
- 36.
Editor's Notes
- #7 Capture internal business data including shipments, bookings, sales orders Import external customer and market information e.g. sell-thru, industry and syndicated data via flat files Understand demand trends and relative contribution of multiple demand signals Monitor changes in demand signals real-time, via exceptions and thresholds
- #10 Gain quick understanding of demand plan via summary infotiles and embedded analytics Investigate further via personalized multi-dimensional analysis workbench Customize measures, calculations and exceptions to support your analysis Slice and dice the data to reveal demand trends by leveraging pivot tables and data visualization elements Integrate with Microsoft Excel®
- #11 Input sales, marketing and stakeholder forecasts Enter forecast manually at any level in hierarchy Key in forecast on-the-go using mobile devices Capture qualitative inputs via Oracle social network and embedded notes
- #12 Improve your overall forecast accuracy and align plans by incorporating customer input in your demand planning process. With release 22A, your channel partners, franchisees, distributors and retail customers can now share their forecasts and consumption history information with you through Cloud Supply Chain Collaboration. This information is immediately available in your demand management process to update the current forecast. The updated forecast is then shared with your customers through Cloud Supply Chain Collaboration. Update 22B further simplifies this demand collaboration process and adds the capability to analyze multiple customer forecasts in a single view.
- #15 Use statistical forecast models in Bayesian forecasting framework View side-by-side, each forecast model value and the blended forecast value Correlate demand to causal factors Visualize breakdown of forecast into baseline, trend, seasonality and causal impact Simulate and confidently finalize changes to models and parameters
- #17 Derive options’ forecast for ATO/PTO models at the moment that statistical forecast is generated Use existing attach rates specified in BOM Predict attach rates based on the historical trend in options’ mix Review forecast for models and options in a special BOM view Calculate dependent demand instantaneously and simulate for manual changes to attach rates
- #18 Monitor MAPE, MAD, Bias errors at aggregate level, and for every demand signal Focus attention on inaccurate product segments Drill to detailed waterfall error analysis report to identify root causes Inspect the constituents of the forecast, and re-configure forecast parameters to resolve issues
- #22 Adjust baseline forecast with additional insights, at any level in hierarchy Edit quickly using one-click ability to increase/decrease forecast across several weeks or as a percentage of current value Edit selectively only where exception is noticed and intervention required Disaggregate and aggregate automatically Monitor forecast adjustments independent of system generated statistical forecast
- #23 Reconcile stakeholder forecast and resolve deviations Leverage built-in and custom exceptions to gain alignment Use conditional formatting to visually identify specific weeks, items or customers needs first attention Leverage ‘Oracle Sales & Operations Planning’ which has visibility to demand plan and to incorporate executive decisions to refine demand plan Approve forecast for use by supply planning
- #24 Utilize history or forecast of like product and indicate % volume adjustment Specify launch date, customers, orgs for each unique product launch Determine the contribution of new product revenue to the overall product portfolio Reconcile with marketing forecasts, and incorporate any other executive feedback Monitor Product Lifecycle
- #25 Limited support for Attribute-Based Planning in Demand Management Does not support Attribute-Based Forecasting Statistical Forecasting Engine will not generate a forecast by attribute Demand History Collections will not collect history stripped by attribute File-Based Data Import (FBDI) for demand history and other measures does not support attributes Planning attribute dimensions cannot be assigned to: Pre-defined Measures Measures used in Forecasting Profiles Configure-To-Order Measures Cannot be used in combination with Configure-To-Order
- #33 You can also integrate with external systems. In the cloud, the way to get data into or out of the system is via standard interfaces rather than direct access to database tables. We provide multiple ways to integrate: Open Interfaces with csv based upload ADFdi gives you on-line excel based interfaces for mass updates Web Services provide ways to query and post data OTBI (Transactional Business Intelligence) provides ad-hoc reporting capabilities, and is service enabled, so you can get to the report data via a service Many are available now…more coming soon.
- #34 This chart illustrates that, DM Cloud is tightly integrated with other planning applications (S&OP, SP, Planning Central, GOP) as well as the broader set of SCM Cloud applications.
- #35 You can also extend S&OP Cloud. I’ve already spoken about the numerous ways you can configure S&OP Cloud, but you can also do even more to extend the solution using Oracle PaaS capabilities.