Long-term disequilibrium and short-term equilibrium dynamics in West Indian biogeography
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This document discusses long-term disequilibrium and short-term equilibrium dynamics in West Indian biogeography. It reviews literature on equilibrium vs. disequilibrium models and proposes testing long-term disequilibrium patterns through lineage accumulation functions over time. Area change can explain most change in species richness on the Greater Antilles and Bahamas, though additional work is still needed. The document advocates using an equilibrium null model and statistical framework to properly test long-term patterns and questions like extinction, requiring data on multiple colonization and extinction events over time.
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Long-term disequilibrium and short-term equilibrium dynamics in West Indian biogeography
- 1. Long-term disequilibrium and short-term equilibrium dynamics in West Indian biogeography Liliana M. Dávalos Ecology and Evolution, SUNY at Stony Brook Amy L. Russell Biology, Grand Valley State University
- 2. Equilibrium vs. disequilibrium M&W 1963 Evolu.on Cracra2 1983 Syst. Biol.
- 3. Dynamic equilibrium ETIB Preston 1962 Ecology
- 4. Disequilibrium Iturralde Vinent & MacPhee 1999 Bull. Amer. Mus. Nat Hist.
- 5. How to test disequilibrium? • ETIB lineage accumulaKon as a funcKon of Kme – FiNed line • Species = f(S arriving + speciaKon – exKncKon) • Lineages = f(S arriving) Ricklefs & Bermingham 2001 Science
- 6. Equilibrium and disequilibrium in colonizaKon cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
- 7. Dumont, Dávalos 2012 PRS-‐B Also: Stadelmann et al. 2007 Dávalos 2010
- 8. Very long-‐term disequilibrium 10 8 6 4 2 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 10 20 30 40 50 Time in millions of years Number of lineages Natalidae colonization event Colonization rates Single rate model Two-rate slow Two-rate fast
- 9. Changes more recently Dávalos & Turvey 2012 Bones, Clones & Biomes
- 10. Buckets of Caribbean fossils
- 11. Why they went exKnct • CompeKKon by other invasive bats – Koopman & Williams 1951 • Cave flooding – Morgan 2001 • Interglacial floods – McFarlane & Lundberg 2004 • Anthropogenic habitat destrucKon – Gannon et al. 2005
- 12. Can area change explain species loss? Dávalos & Russell 2012 Ecology & Evolu.on
- 13. Change in area explains most change in species richness R2 = 0.83 R2 = 0.85 Log of present/LGM area in the Greater Antilles í í í í í í ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! í í í í í í í ! ! ! ! ! ! Log of present/LGM area in the Bahamas Log of present/LGM species í í í í í í ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! í í í í
- 14. Room for addiKonal work ! ! Observed species richness Greater Antilles 16 6.3 2.5 1 1 1.6 2.5 4.0 6.3 10 16 25 25 10 4.0 1.6 Perfect prediction Figure 4 Observed species richness Bahamas Predicted richness 4.0 2.5 1.6 1 1 1.6 2.5 4.0 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 6.4
- 15. How to answer the right quesKon • Equilibrium null model • StaKsKcal framework for tesKng long-‐term paNerns – Requires mulKple colonizaKon/exKncKon events – Floor on biodiversity required to apply widely – ExKncKon? Drawing by A. Tejedor