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Wargaming Europe
Julien Alphonse
Senior Live Ops Analyst
1
Live Ops Structure 2
Data Science
New projects
Server Side
Events
CRM + PRMPInfluencers
Live Ops Analytics
Provide models, market research
Pre & Post analysis, Dashboard & tools, Forecasts, market research
Revenue forecast 4
Forecast
Will we be on track with
our targets?
Do we have enough events
to reach targets?
Adapt
What can we do to save
the month?
Analyze
Why some events under-
performed?
Synthetic Control Group 5
Overview
Event
This event is supposed to have an
impact on revenue by increasing credits
expenditures
Active daysActive days, revenues, credits spent
Active daysActive days, revenues, credits spent
CG
TG
Before
Synthetic Control Group 6
Procedure
Data extraction
Data transformation
Synthetic CG
Synthetic Control Group 7
Data transformation
Player ID Revenues Active days Credits spent
1234 $0 4 234 758
1235 $12.458 7 387 965
Player ID Revenues Active days Credits spent
1234 0 4 3
1235 2 7 5
Quantile QuantileNo
transformation
Synthetic Control Group 8
Control Group construction
Revenues Active days Credits spent Players in TG (A) Similar players (B) Ratio B/A
0 4 3 12 246 20.5
2 7 5 54 149 2.76
9 1 1 1 0 0
Match 1 TG player with X
similar players
Share of TG that will be
retained
1:1 98%
2:1 96%
3:1 95%
4:1 74%
9
Analysis
Synthetic Control Group
Pre-analysis 10
Ex: Missions definition
What is the probability to win 5 battles in
a row?
1
25
= 3,125%
In order to boost retention, we want to design some missions that will offer some freebies to our players.
11
W L W W L W L L L W W W
Pre-analysis
Ex: Missions definition
12
What is the probability to win 5 battles in
a row?
1
25
= 3,125%
Pre-analysis
Ex: Missions definition
THANK YOU
Q & A
13

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  • 2. Live Ops Structure 2 Data Science New projects Server Side Events CRM + PRMPInfluencers Live Ops Analytics Provide models, market research Pre & Post analysis, Dashboard & tools, Forecasts, market research
  • 3.
  • 4. Revenue forecast 4 Forecast Will we be on track with our targets? Do we have enough events to reach targets? Adapt What can we do to save the month? Analyze Why some events under- performed?
  • 5. Synthetic Control Group 5 Overview Event This event is supposed to have an impact on revenue by increasing credits expenditures Active daysActive days, revenues, credits spent Active daysActive days, revenues, credits spent CG TG Before
  • 6. Synthetic Control Group 6 Procedure Data extraction Data transformation Synthetic CG
  • 7. Synthetic Control Group 7 Data transformation Player ID Revenues Active days Credits spent 1234 $0 4 234 758 1235 $12.458 7 387 965 Player ID Revenues Active days Credits spent 1234 0 4 3 1235 2 7 5 Quantile QuantileNo transformation
  • 8. Synthetic Control Group 8 Control Group construction Revenues Active days Credits spent Players in TG (A) Similar players (B) Ratio B/A 0 4 3 12 246 20.5 2 7 5 54 149 2.76 9 1 1 1 0 0 Match 1 TG player with X similar players Share of TG that will be retained 1:1 98% 2:1 96% 3:1 95% 4:1 74%
  • 10. Pre-analysis 10 Ex: Missions definition What is the probability to win 5 battles in a row? 1 25 = 3,125% In order to boost retention, we want to design some missions that will offer some freebies to our players.
  • 11. 11 W L W W L W L L L W W W Pre-analysis Ex: Missions definition
  • 12. 12 What is the probability to win 5 battles in a row? 1 25 = 3,125% Pre-analysis Ex: Missions definition