Daily Economic Update: September 16, 2010
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U.S. producer prices increased in August led by higher energy prices, particularly gasoline and heating oil. Food prices declined due to falling egg prices over salmonella concerns. Overall producer price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in August while core prices excluding energy rose 0.1%. Initial unemployment claims fell to 450,000, the lowest since July, but need to drop below 400,000 to signal a meaningful job market recovery. Continuing unemployment claims also declined in September.
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Tough economic conditions and poor weather in the UK have led to declines in wholesale energy prices. Gas and electricity prices fell by 15-22% year-over-year in mid-June due to low global energy demand from slowing economies in Europe, the US and China. Unseasonably cold and stormy weather in the UK increased gas demand from households and small businesses, offsetting declines in industrial use and highlighting the economy's continued reliance on energy consumption. Future price movements will depend on resolutions to the Eurozone debt crisis and economic performance in the US and China.
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Mortgage Delinquencies by State
The states with the highest mortgage delinquency rates in the fourth quarter of 2010 were Mississippi, Nevada, and Georgia. Florida had the highest foreclosure inventory rate, followed by Nevada and New Jersey. Nevada, Arizona and Florida had the highest foreclosure starts rates. The document provides data on foreclosure inventory, serious delinquency rates, foreclosure starts, and new delinquencies by state from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2010 and year-over-year changes.
Mortgage Delinquencies
The document summarizes mortgage delinquency and foreclosure statistics from the 4th quarter of 2010. Key points include:
- Mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates decreased from the prior quarter and year.
- Serious delinquency (90+ days past due or in foreclosure) fell to 8.57% nationally.
- Foreclosure starts and inventory declined across the US from the prior year's high levels.
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011
Inflation is important for real estate agents because changes in prices can impact interest rate policy set by the Federal Reserve. While fears of deflation emerged during the financial crisis, inflation has now become a concern, with some worried that high unemployment and inflation could result in stagflation, making it difficult for the Fed to address inflation without further hurting the job market. Producer prices are showing signs of inflation and commodity prices remain high, though consumer prices are more subdued, putting upward pressure on prices from a weak dollar and increasing costs of imported goods.
Recovery to Normalcy: Feb 2011
This document summarizes Lawrence Yun's presentation on the recovery of the housing market and job market to normal levels. It finds that while consumer confidence about current conditions is low, confidence about the future is improving. It also notes that jobs growth has added over 1 million jobs in the past year but it could take until 2015 to return to normal 6% unemployment levels. The housing market fundamentals have returned to justifiable levels with home prices stabilizing and sales improving in line with job growth, but mortgage underwriting remains too strict. The outlook predicts moderate GDP growth and over 2 million new jobs added annually over the next two years, with housing sales and values expected to improve gradually as the job market recovers.
Home Price Monitor
Home prices were relatively stable in November and December according to most data sources, with slight declines reported for both the month and year by many measures. However, some measures showed slight price increases and new home prices rose robustly. Rising home sales and shrinking inventories are expected to contribute to ongoing price stability, especially for new homes which have inventories near record lows. Strong job growth and increases in job openings and hires bode well for continued growth in home sales and prices in the coming months.
How Risky is the FHA’s Low Down Payment Program?
The document summarizes concerns about the Federal Housing Administration's (FHA) low down payment mortgage program and its effects. It notes that FHA's capital reserves have fallen dangerously low due to increased defaults. While FHA borrowers' credit has improved since 2007, the agency now insures a much larger share of loans with low down payments, which some argue increases risk. However, data shows that high loan-to-value FHA loans have lower foreclosure rates than other products, and stricter underwriting has boosted credit profiles. Removing FHA's low down payment options could significantly hurt the housing market but also reduce risks to taxpayers.
Metro Area Monthly Mortgage Payments: 2005 vs 2010
The document compares median home prices and estimated monthly mortgage payments in 2010 and 2005 for various metro areas in the United States. It shows that for most metro areas, median home prices and monthly payments decreased between 2005 and 2010, with percentage decreases typically ranging from 5-50%. A few metro areas such as Honolulu saw smaller decreases or even increases over this period.
Metro Area Unemployment
Detroit saw the largest year-over-year decline in unemployment rate from November 2009 to November 2010, though this was partially due to a reduction in the labor force. Las Vegas saw the largest increase in unemployment rate, and Denver, Miami, and New Orleans all experienced increases over 1%. Unemployment rates varied across major metro areas from 4-16% in November 2010.
State by State Employment Trends
The document contains charts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing total nonagricultural employment numbers for various states from 2006 to 2010. The charts provide monthly seasonally adjusted employment figures in thousands of workers for states including Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, and Idaho.
Economic Indicators for the Week of January 18th
This document provides a weekly economic forecast and updates from January 18-21, 2011. It forecasts modest GDP growth of 2.5-2.8% in 2010-2011 and 1.9 million new jobs added in 2011. Mortgage rates are expected to be around 5.3% by mid-2011 while unemployment is forecasted to be 9.2%. Economic updates throughout the week report on housing starts, existing home sales, jobless claims and mortgage rates.
Summary of December 2010 Existing-Home Sales
The document summarizes existing home sales statistics for December 2010. It shows that total existing home sales decreased 3.3% from December 2009 but median home prices rose 1.2% year-over-year. Charts depict trends in annualized sales, median prices, and price changes from 2006-2010. Sales were strongest in the South and West and weakest in the Northeast and Midwest. Most homes sold were priced between $100,000-$250,000, though sales of higher-priced homes rose while lower-priced homes fell.
Inflation Watch for January, 2011
Inflation is important for real estate agents because changes in prices can impact interest rate policy set by the Federal Reserve. During the financial crisis, there were fears of deflation leading to a downward price spiral similar to the Great Depression. While deflation fears have lessened, some worry high inflation in coming years could result in stagflation, with high unemployment and inflation making it hard for central banks to address inflation without further hurting jobs. Commodity and metal prices are rising along with oil, adding inflationary pressure, though the dollar is showing recent strength against these pressures.
Daily Economic Update for January 5, 2011
Mortgage purchase applications fell slightly last week while refinancing increased, and average 30-year mortgage rates rose. An ADP survey found private payrolls rose by 297,000 in December, much higher than predicted and led by gains at medium and small sized businesses in the service sector.
Daily Economic Update for January 04, 2011
Factory orders rose 0.7% between October and November, stronger than expected, led by gains in fabricated metals, computers, and electronics. While industrial machinery and aircraft orders fell, non-durable goods orders rose 1.7% and capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.1%, suggesting businesses are investing again which will support economic expansion and job growth.
Daily Economic Update, January 3, 2011
Construction spending increased by 0.4% in November for the third consecutive month, driven by a 3.3% rise in public non-residential spending, while private residential and non-residential spending declined; the construction market remains weak with excess supply and mostly government office projects. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.0 in December, signaling economic expansion, as new orders and production increased substantially.
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Pending Home Sales Statistics
The November 2010 pending home sales statistics document contains the following key points:
1) The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index decreased 5.0% in November 2010 compared to November 2009.
2) By region, pending home sales decreased the most in the West at 17.6% year-over-year, followed by the Midwest at 7.7% and the South at 7.2%.
3) Pending home sales increased 3.5% from October 2010 to November 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Daily Economic Update: December 30, 2010
Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in over two years at 388,000 for the week, below the 400,000 threshold needed for sustainable job creation. This confirms that the economy is improving as job creation is happening. At the height of the recession, jobless claims peaked at 651,000 in March 2009, showing the progress that has been made in recovering jobs lost during the economic downturn.
Daily Economic Update, December 28, 2010
Home prices for the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city index decreased 1% in October compared to September and 0.8% compared to October 2009, with only 4 cities seeing year-over-year gains. Consumer confidence decreased in December according to the Conference Board's index, driven by a decline in perceptions of the present situation and jobs being difficult to obtain. The graph shows declines in both the home price index and consumer confidence index since mid-2007, demonstrating their link to employment growth and consumer sentiment.
Daily Economic Update, December 27, 2010
Oil prices rose as cold weather hit parts of the US and Europe, increasing $0.26 per barrel to $93.72. Prices last exceeded $100 per barrel in 2008, and may reach that level again in the first half of 2011 due to rising demand during winter. An economic research group reported on current oil price increases and potential future rises.
Economic Indicators for Week of December 20-23, 2010
The Research staff analyzes the week's key data releases and tell you what they mean for you and your business.
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Daily Economic Update: September 16, 2010
- 1. Daily Economic Update Daily Economic Update September 16, 2010 News of increased U.S. producer prices eased some fears of deflation. The overall p p PPI increased 0.4 percent since July. The rise is largely from an increase in energy prices. Food prices declined. Excluding energy, the core level PPI inched up only 0.1 percent since July. Within energy the largest increase in prices was for gasoline followed by heating Within energy, the largest increase in prices was for gasoline, followed by heating oil. Residential gas and electricity rose as well. The drop in food prices was largely led by the falling price of fresh eggs, as consumers were concerned with salmonella. Since last year, the overall PPI fell to 3.0 percent from 4.1 percent in July (seasonally adjusted). The core PPI also decreased to 1.3 percent from 1.5 percent the prior month. Not accounting for seasonality, August PPI was up 3.1 percent while the core was up 1.3 percent. Positive news on the labor market came from the jobless claims report The number Positive news on the labor market came from the jobless claims report. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell for the second month in a row, down 3,000. Initial claims were at 450,000 for the week of September 11, for the lowest total since July. It still needs to fall below 400,000 per week to have any meaningful broad job market recovery. Continuing claims also fell, down 84,000 in data for the broad job market recovery Continuing claims also fell down 84 000 in data for the September 4 week to 4.485 million. Produced by NAR Research