Dự báo vào kế hoạch tài chính_9389965

1. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Financial Planning and Forecasting
Forecasting Sales
Projecting the Assets and Internally
Generated Funds
Projecting Outside Funds Needed
Deciding How to Raise Funds
Chapter 17
17-1

2. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Preliminary Financial Forecast:
Balance Sheets (Assets)
2012 2013E
Cash and equivalents $ 20 $ 25
Accounts receivable 240 300
Inventories 240 300
Total current assets $ 500 $ 625
Net fixed assets 500 625
Total assets $1,000 $1,250
17-2

3. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2012 2013E
A/P & accrued liabilities $ 100 $ 125
Notes payable 100 190
Total current liabilities $ 200 $ 315
Long-term debt 100 190
Common stock 500 500
Retained earnings 200 245
Total liabilities & equity $1,000 $1,250
Preliminary Financial Forecast: Balance Sheets
(Liabilities and Equity)
17-3

4. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Preliminary Financial Forecast:
Income Statements
17-4
2012 2013E
Sales $2,000.0 $2,500.0
Variable costs 1,200.0 1,500.0
Fixed costs 700.0 875.0
EBIT $ 100.0 $ 125.0
Interest 16.0 16.0
EBT $ 84.0 $ 109.0
Taxes (40%) 33.6 43.6
Net income $ 50.4 $ 65.4
Dividends (30% of NI) $15.12 $19.62
Addition to retained earnings $35.28 $45.78

5. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Key Financial Ratios
2012 2013E Ind Avg Comment
Basic earning power 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% Poor
Profit margin 2.52% 2.62% 4.00% Poor
Return on equity 7.20% 8.77% 15.60% Poor
Days sales outstanding 43.8 days 43.8 days 32.0 days Poor
Inventory turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00x Poor
Fixed assets turnover 4.00x 4.00x 5.00x Poor
Total assets turnover 2.00x 2.00x 2.50x Poor
Debt/Assets 30.00% 40.40% 36.00% OK
Times interest earned 6.25x 7.81x 9.40x Poor
Current ratio 2.50x 1.99x 3.00x Poor
Payout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% OK
17-5

6. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Key Assumptions in Preliminary Financial Forecast for
NWC
• Operating at full capacity in 2012.
• Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales.
• Payables and accruals grow proportionally with
sales.
• 2012 profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be
maintained.
• Sales are expected to increase by $500 million.
(%DS = 25%)
17-6

7. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Determining Additional Funds Needed Using the AFN
Equation
AFN = (A0*/S0)DS – (L0*/S0)DS – M(S1)(1 – Payout)
= ($1,000/$2,000)($500)
– ($100/$2,000)($500)
– 0.0252($2,500)(0.7)
= $180.9 million
17-7

8. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Management’s Review of the Financial Forecast
• Consultation with some key managers has yielded
the following revisions:
– Firm expects customers to pay quicker next year, thus
reducing DSO to 34 days without affecting sales.
– A new facility will boost the firm’s net fixed assets to
$700 million.
– New inventory system to increase the firm’s
inventory turnover to 10x, without affecting sales.
17-8

9. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Management’s Review of the Financial Forecast
• These changes will lead to adjustments in the firm’s
assets and will have no effect on the firm’s liabilities
and equity section of the balance sheet or its
income statement.
17-9

10. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Revised (Final) Financial Forecast:
Balance Sheets (Assets)
2012 2013F
Cash and equivalents $ 20 $ 67
Accounts receivable 240 233
Inventories 240 250
Total current assets $ 500 $ 550
Net fixed assets 500 700
Total assets $1,000 $1,250
17-10

11. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Key Financial Ratios: Final Forecast
2012 2013F Ind Avg Comment
Basic earning power 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% Poor
Profit margin 2.52% 2.62% 4.00% Poor
Return on equity 7.20% 8.77% 15.60% Poor
Days sales outstanding 43.8 days 34.0 days 32.0 days OK
Inventory turnover 8.33x 10.00x 11.00x OK
Fixed assets turnover 4.00x 3.57x 5.00x Poor
Total assets turnover 2.00x 2.00x 2.50x OK
Debt/Assets 30.00% 40.40% 36.00% Poor
Times interest earned 6.25x 7.81x 9.40x Poor
Current ratio 2.50x 1.98x 3.00x Poor
Payout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% OK
17-11

12. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
What was the net investment in capital?
17-12
125
,
1
$
625
$
125
$
625
$
625
$
)
190
$
315
($
625
$
NetFA
NOWC
Capital2013










900
$
Capital2012 
225
$
900
$
125
,
1
$
capital
in
investment
Net




13. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
How much free cash flow is expected to be
generated in 2013?
FCF = EBIT(1 – T) – Net investment in capital
= $125(0.6) – $225
= $75 – $225
= -$150
17-13

14. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Suppose Fixed Assets Had Been Operating at
Only 85% of Capacity in 2012
• The maximum amount of sales that can be
supported by the 2012 level of assets is:
17-14
$2,353
5
$2,000/0.8
capacity
of
%
sales/
Actual
sales
Capacity



• 2013 forecast sales exceed the capacity sales, so
new fixed assets are required to support 2013 sales.

15. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
How can excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios?
• Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower,
so turnovers would improve.
• Less new debt, hence lower interest and higher
profits
• EPS, ROE, debt ratio, and TIE would improve.
17-15

16. © 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
How would the following items affect the AFN?
• Higher dividend payout ratio?
– Increase AFN: Less retained earnings.
• Higher profit margin?
– Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained
earnings.
• Higher capital intensity ratio?
– Increase AFN: Need more assets for a given level of
sales.
• Pay suppliers in 60 days, rather than 30 days?
– Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital
(i.e., L0*/S0 increases).
17-16