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Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000
Toronto, ON M5E 1S9
www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards.
No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or
other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals.
© 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
CANADIAN OVERVIEW
By now it’s well known that the harsh winter
put a damper on the economic rebound
expected in the second quarter. However,
despite the slow start to the year, overall real
GDP growth is forecast to reach about 2.4% in
2014 and 2.7% in 2015 (RBC Economics).
The fact that Alberta’s economy outpaced the rest of Canada (3.7%
growth projected) was illustrated by the province’s second quarter
real estate absorption rate, which made all other industrial markets
appear lackluster by comparison.
Manufacturing has delivered some good news, with sales advancing in
four of the first five months of 2014, including a 1.6% rise in May.
Energy and auto assembly recorded the strongest gains for the
month. Auto parts sales have risen in nine of the last ten months, and
are up 11.3% year-to-date. This was driven by stronger demand from
the U.S., as well as a more competitive Canadian dollar.
Canadian industrial markets remained active but subdued from an
expansionary demand perspective, with the exception of Calgary,
where recent strength in energy prices has injected some adrenalin
into demand for industrial space. For other major markets, overall
absorption was 160,000 square feet (sf) in the second quarter.
Make no mistake though, business confidence, along with the
prospect of expansionary demand, is picking up in most markets.
Vacancy dropped to 6.2% over the quarter and development activity
is on an upswing. The dominant Greater Toronto Area industrial
market, for example, has 7.1 million square feet (msf) rising based on
positive expectations.
WESTERN CANADA
The Alberta economy has grown at an average rate of 4.3% over the
past four years, nearly twice the national average. A recent upswing in
oil and natural gas prices after a frigid winter and a rapid rise in
production of crude oil ignited Calgary’s industrial market driving
record absorption over the first half of 2014.
These massive swings in momentum are not new for Alberta’s
industrial markets. As huge oil sands projects ramp up, so does
demand for industrial space. However, the scarcity of serviced land in
Calgary and surrounding markets has limited development and sale
opportunities, which has increased both lease and sale rates.
With the strike at the Port of Vancouver in the rear view mirror,
B.C. is expecting real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2014 (RBC). Weak base
metal prices have subdued B.C.’s mining growth, which curtailed
expansionary industrial demand in the second quarter. However,
metal prices, such as copper, may be on the rise due to a pick-up of
demand from China, which saw June factory orders expand at the
fastest rate in 18 months.
STATS ON THE GO
Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Y-O-Y
CHANGE
12-MONTH
FORECAST
Overall Vacancy 6.3% 6.2% -0.1pp
Direct Net Asking Rents
(psf/yr)
$5.77 $6.05 4.9%
YTD New Supply (sf) 5,537,799 3,747,823 -32.3%
OVERALL RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 2014
psf/yr
OVERALL NET RENTAL RATE OVERALL VACANCY RATE
CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS11.2
3.9
5.4
8.0
10.1
3.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
sf(millions)
Q2 2014CANADA
INDUSTRIAL SNAPSHOT
MARKETBEAT
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000
Toronto, ON M5E 1S9
www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards.
No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or
other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals.
© 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
VANCOUVER
Vancouver remains a tale of two markets with a very strong
acquisition climate. Lack of availability is pushing pricing to historic
highs, and cap rates are being achieved that would have been
unfathomable two years ago. While expansionary demand momentum
softened significantly over the second quarter, producing absorption
of 46,000 sf, a positive rebound in momentum could become the
story of the latter half of 2014 due to a strengthening U.S. economy
and potentially stronger demand out of China. Vacancy remains tight
at 4.2% but development activity is strong with in excess of 2 msf of
product under construction.
CALGARY
It would seem a far leap to achieve in excess of 3 msf of positive
absorption in Calgary’s industrial market in one quarter, yet that is
exactly what happened in the second quarter. A pick-up in both oil
and natural gas prices, along with an acceleration in oil output, helped
contribute to this exceptional growth. Continued improvement in the
U.S. and China could mean oil price stability at higher prices over the
next few quarters, which would support continued growth across
Calgary’s industrial markets. Vacancy fell significantly over the quarter
to 5.0% from 7.4%, though displacement of space as tenants relocate
into newly committed space will provide some relief in the quarters
to come. Over 1 msf in new developments under construction will
arrive at market over the next year.
EDMONTON
Leasing activity strengthened across Edmonton’s industrial markets
over the second quarter. Land sales in Acheson have been strong for
the first half of 2014, with developers positioning themselves for the
next wave of new developments within this lower cost alternative
market.
With output from the province’s oil sands projected to more than
double to 4.1 million barrels a day by 2025, growth in Edmonton’s
industrial market will remain active as long as oil prices remain stable.
Alberta added almost 82,000 jobs last year, while the rest of Canada
experienced overall losses. According to data compiled by
Bloomberg, Alberta would pass Quebec as the country’s second
largest provincial economy within three years.
CENTRAL CANADA
Ontario’s constrained pace of economic growth over the first quarter
of 2014 caused GDP growth estimates to fall to 2.3% for 2014 (RBC).
Everyone has been waiting for the export sector to kick into gear,
and it appears that this is finally taking place. The province is
expected to benefit from a strengthening U.S. economy and lower
Canadian dollar thanks to Ontario’s close ties to that massive market.
This will only improve as we move into 2015. Despite a tough start to
the year, manufacturing sales grew by 3.3% in the second quarter
compared to the same period a year ago.
Improving conditions are also providing the confidence that
companies need to ramp up their capital investments. Statistics
Canada’s Investment Intentions survey released in February forecast a
3.7% increase in non-residential spending for 2014 – much improved
compared to the 4.5% decline in 2013.
While increased demand will impact southern Ontario in a more
pronounced fashion, Montreal also stands to benefit given its
proximity to U.S. markets. Positive absorption is expected to return
by late 2014 and into 2015.
Generally, central Canadian markets have struggled from a growth
perspective, with combined absorption across Ottawa, Montreal and
Toronto of negative 1.3 msf over the first half of 2014. However, the
shift in momentum was evidenced in the second quarter when the
combined absorption rose to negative 100,000 sf – a definite step in
the right direction.
The Greater Toronto Area market is by far the largest in Canada, and
the third largest in North America, and is the one to watch as a
strong U.S. economy drives both optimism and demand for industrial
space.
GREATER TORONTO AREA
Business optimism is improving across GTA industrial markets, but
expansionary demand has yet to gain any real traction. What we are
no longer seeing is a deep bleeding of space to market -- an indication
that a positive shift is underway.
While overall absorption has been marginally negative, a robust U.S.
economy will continue to increase demand for goods and services,
which are enhanced by a low Canadian dollar.
The vacancy rate has been edging tighter over the past year or so and
now sits at 5.5% - the lowest it’s been since before the recession of
2008. Even smaller block availabilities are seeing reduced availabilities
and upward pressure on rental rates, which could stimulate
development activity in this product category.
Development activity targeting large block users is much more active
than it was one year ago. About 7.1 msf of new development is either
underway or about to start. This speaks to the anticipation of much
better economic times to come, manifested by a significant pick-up in
demand as we move through 2014 and into 2015.
Owner-occupier demand remains red hot across GTA industrial
markets, with the greatest limitation being product availability.
Demand for land is also strong, though increases in development
charges are leading to creative solutions, including the redevelopment
of older properties.
OVERALL VACANCY RATES VS. SUPPLY
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YTD
msf
NEW SUPPLY VACANCY RATE
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000
Toronto, ON M5E 1S9
www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards.
No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or
other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals.
© 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
MONTREAL
Business optimism is strengthening across Montreal’s industrial
markets. While expansionary demand was marginally positive over
the second quarter, Montreal, like Toronto, will benefit from much
stronger growth and business demand driven by stronger U.S.
demand for Canadian goods and services. That said, two notable
factory closings over the quarter brought unwanted news to the
market. This included Energizer Holdings’ announcement that it will
shut down its Montreal manufacturing operations as activities are
relocated to Delaware. While leasing activity remains weak and
vacancy rose modestly to 9.6%, expansionary momentum should gain
traction as we move into 2015. Institutional investors, including
HOOPP, Forgestone Capital and Canderel recently purchased the
former Liberty Business Park in the borough of Saint-Laurent.
OTTAWA
The Ottawa region continues to experience very weak overall
demand as the federal government’s aim to achieve a balanced budget
suppresses activity. Real GDP growth was only 0.1% across 2013 and
is expected to increase to a modest 0.9% in 2014.
As Canada’s capital, Ottawa’s industrial market remains generally
stable from both a vacancy and a rental rate perspective. Sectors
connected to the global economy, such as technology, will see some
growth due to a strengthening U.S. economy. Overall absorption
across 2013 averaged negative 12,000 sf per quarter. Over 100,000 sf
of positive absorption occurred in the first quarter of 2014, though
absorption was negligible in the second quarter. Momentum will likely
remain weak into 2015.
ATLANTIC CANADA
Halifax, Moncton, and St. John’s are the largest industrial markets in
Atlantic Canada. Overall, Atlantic Canada has seen slow growth over
the first half of 2014 and will likely see modest improvement over the
balance of the year and into 2015. In New Brunswick, the good news
has been that job gains in the private sector have offset the impact of
job losses in the public sector. In addition, non-residential building
construction has gained some momentum, with preliminary work
beginning for the $450-million modernization plan for the Irving pulp
and paper mill.
New Brunswick’s manufacturing and export sector remains
challenged, however, with shipments at a two-year low.
Nova Scotia presents a slightly more optimistic story, with real GDP
growth for 2014 forecast at 2.2%, boosted in part by a full year of
production at the Deep Panuke offshore natural gas field. Further,
Nova Scotia has seen an upswing in international merchandise
exports because of strong demand for seafood products from China.
In addition, it will see an estimated $335 million invested in the 180-
km undersea link project in 2014 and benefit from projects relating to
the $25-billion shipbuilding contract for the Arctic offshore patrol
ships (RBC).
Newfoundland and Labrador experiences the most volatile shifts in
GDP growth in the country. 2013 saw real growth of about 7.9%
after a 4.4% decline in 2012. This year, growth is forecast to fall back
to 0.6% (RBC). The mining sector was hit by weak iron ore prices
and lower than expected production on top of the impact of severe
weather conditions. A return to health in this sector is expected over
the long run, and a number of capital investment projects are
underway that will raise production of iron ore in 2015 and beyond.
Statoil recently contracted Seadrill West Hercules to drill the Flemish
Pass Basin off Newfoundland. Among Statoil’s three oil finds in the
basin is the Bay du Nord, its biggest oil discovery outside of Norway,
where an estimated 300 to 600 million barrels of recoverable oil
exists. Projects like these will put the momentum back into the St.
John’s industrial market.
HALIFAX
The overall vacancy rate rose over the second quarter to 11.2% from
9.3% one quarter ago. The bulk of this occurred in Burnside Business
Park, where vacancy increased to 11.1% from 9.0% last quarter. A
significant amount of negative absorption was caused by the
contraction of Armour Transport, which vacated 50,000 sf at 71
Thornhill Drive. Sleeman’s Brewery also brought 30,000 sf back into
the Burnside market.
Spending on major project initiatives is expected to increase by 11%
in 2015 as the Maritime link project gets underway. Projects directly
impacting Halifax include the MacDonald Bridge renovation,
construction of the recently approved Nova Centre, and continued
preparation work at the Halifax shipyard to upgrade and modernize
the facility to accommodate the building of Artic Offshore Patrol
Vessels. These projects and others should bring stability to Halifax’s
industrial market over the latter half of 2014 and into 2015.
MONCTON
The completion of the fully-occupied 385,000-sf Kent Distribution
Center in Caledonia Industrial Park during the second quarter
represents a 40% expansion for Kent, and the space they displace will
provide opportunities for tenants looking for competitively priced
space in the market. Vacancy is now 12.4%. An additional 200,000 sf
of new construction will be added over the next year. While about
40% of this space will be displaced as tenants relocate into their new
premises, the balance represents growth of the existing tenant base
within Moncton's industrial market. Moncton is one of the most
vibrant and best-located areas in the Atlantic region and an overall
pick up in demand strength is expected across the latter half of 2014
and into 2015.
OVERALL VACANCY RATES VS. NET ABSORPTION
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
-5
0
5
10
15
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YTD
msf
NET ABSORPTION VACANCY RATE
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000
Toronto, ON M5E 1S9
www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards.
No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or
other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals.
© 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
St. John’s
The St. John’s industrial market remains a landlords’ market, achieving
some of the highest net rental rates in the country. That said, new
product has been arriving into the market, which is drawing tenants
out of older product and putting upward pressure on vacancy,
particularly in older product. The vacancy rate is now at 9.5%, up
from 5.5% one year ago.
Acquisitions and build-to-suit facilities are expected to remain popular
among tenants in the St. John’s market. Stable oil production and an
increase in capital investments in the energy and mining sectors,
particularly in support of the drilling program within the Bay du Nord,
will ensure the industrial markets continue to see expansionary
demand through 2014 and into 2015.
CANADA
SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL
VACANCY
RATE
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
YTD
CONSTRUCTION
COMPLETIONS
CURRENT
QUARTER
ABSORPTION
YTD
ABSORPTION
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE NET
RENTAL RATE
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE GROSS
RENTAL RATE
Vancouver 195,299,565 4.2% 2,008,334 1,889,007 45,942 1,662,616 $8.00 $11.19
Calgary 114,172,756 5.0% 1,441,084 828,585 3,048,356 3,290,356 $9.41 $13.24
Toronto 768,748,839 5.5% 7,061,643 1,030,083 (101,842) (291,044) $5.34 $8.36
Ottawa 21,857,719 6.0% 0 0 (9,738) 108,550 $8.48 $13.42
Montreal 284,816,148 9.6% 178,000 165,750 10,953 (1,111,261) $5.00 $8.10
Fredericton 463,925 16.2% 0 0 (6,905) (4,555) $7.48 $12.08
Saint John 432,031 16.9% 0 0 17,650 15,290 $6.86 $10.41
Moncton 3,812,565 12.4% 200,000 385,000 318,152 242,630 $6.01 $8.88
Halifax 7,543,358 11.2% 0 32,000 (146,288) (163,576) $7.22 $11.60
St. John’s 3,429,323 9.5% 59,000 117,398 32,792 44,752 $10.52 $13.67
TOTALS 1,400,576,229 6.2% 10,948,061 3,747,828 3,209,072 3,793,758 $6.05 $9.21
* RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR
VACANCY RATES
4.2%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
9.6%
16.2%
16.9%
12.4%
11.2%
9.5%
Vancouver
Calgary
Toronto
Ottawa
Montreal
Fredericton
Saint John
Moncton
Halifax
St. John's
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000
Toronto, ON M5E 1S9
www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards.
No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or
other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals.
© 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Significant 2014 Lease Transactions MARKET SUBMARKET TENANT/BUYER SQUARE FEET
Hopewell Distribution Park Phase 2 Building A Calgary Southeast Canadian Tire Corporation 454,977
Stoney Industrial Center – Building 6 Calgary Northeast Excel Global Logistics Inc. 416,412
6780 Creditview Road Toronto Mississauga SCI Logistics 324,600
Stoney Industrial Center – Building 5 Calgary Northeast Target Corporation 299,812
4700 47th Street Calgary Southeast Enerflex Ltd. 281,417
6810 40th Street SE Calgary Southeast Dominion Warehousing 247,093
5800 76th Ave SE Building 1 Calgary Southeast Sears 243,947
16068 Portside Road Vancouver Richmond Western Canada Express Inc. 212,761
501 Palladium Drive Ottawa Kanata MobilShred / Lockheed Martin 212,466
107 Alfred Kuehne Blvd. Toronto Brampton Calyx Transportation Group Inc. 192,712
Significant 2014 Sale Transactions MARKET SUBMARKET BUYER PURCHASE
PRICE
SQUARE
FEET
86 Pillsworth Road Toronto Bolton Prime Industrial Real Estate Trust $57,000,000 627,791
6757 Northwest Drive Toronto Mississauga LaSalle Investment Management $34,461,000 451,510
501 Palladium Drive Ottawa Kanata BMO Life Assurance (75% Interest) $25,294,287 258,341
South Burnaby Corporate Centre Vancouver Burnaby Investors Group $47,600,000 223,103
9740 27th Street NE; 8241 30th Street SE; 700
58th Ave. SE
Calgary NE & SE York Realty Inc. $22,800,000 219,432
107 Alfred Kuehne Toronto Brampton Kingsett Capital Inc. $16,500,000 192,712
1235 Ormont Drive Toronto North York Caplink Limited $9,100,000 177,935
351 Gifford Street Vancouver New Westminster 351 Gifford Holdings Ltd. $8,300,000 174,664
Significant 2014 Construction
Completions
MARKET SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT COMPLETION
DATE
SQUARE
FEET
2 1 Merchant Road Toronto Caledon Acklands Grainger Q2 2014 537,248
Boundary Bay Logistics Centre Vancouver Delta APPS Cargo Q1 2014 439,970
Kent Building Distribution Center New Brunswick Moncton Kent Building Supplies Q2 2014 385,000
2675 Steeles Avenue Toronto Brampton Shoppers Drug Mart Q2 2014 311,065
550 Terminal Avenue Vancouver Vancouver Mercedes Dealership Q1 2014 164,000
Great Planes Business Park Calgary Southeast Tree of Life Q2 2014 137,650
35 Brownridge Road Toronto Halton Hills Speculative Build Q2 2014 105,475
19347 24 Avenue (Blackthorn IV) Vancouver Surrey Speculative Build Q2 2014 101,225
Significant Projects Under Construction MARKET SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT ANND/OR DEVELOPER COMPLETION
DATE
SQUARE
FEET
13304 Coleraine Drive Toronto Bolton Canadian Tire Q4 2014 1,491,814
12333 Airport Road Toronto Caledon Hopewell Development Q3 2014 575,000
3275 Argentia Road Toronto Mississauga Prologis Canada Inc. Q3 2014 531,928
5827 274th Street Vancouver Langley Masonite Q2 2015 270,000
Queensborough Logistics Centre Vancouver New Westminster Speculative Build Q4 2014 245,000
572&588 Aero Drive NE Building 2 Calgary Northeast YYC Global Logistics Center Q4 2014 227,000
Golden Ears Business Centre – Bldg 300 Vancouver Pitt Meadows Speculative Build Q3 2014 219,330
Airport Crossing Building 1 Calgary Northeast Enright Capital Ltd./Sun Life Q3 2014 202,002

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C&W Marketbeat - Canadian Industrial Report- Q2-2014

  • 1. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. CANADIAN OVERVIEW By now it’s well known that the harsh winter put a damper on the economic rebound expected in the second quarter. However, despite the slow start to the year, overall real GDP growth is forecast to reach about 2.4% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015 (RBC Economics). The fact that Alberta’s economy outpaced the rest of Canada (3.7% growth projected) was illustrated by the province’s second quarter real estate absorption rate, which made all other industrial markets appear lackluster by comparison. Manufacturing has delivered some good news, with sales advancing in four of the first five months of 2014, including a 1.6% rise in May. Energy and auto assembly recorded the strongest gains for the month. Auto parts sales have risen in nine of the last ten months, and are up 11.3% year-to-date. This was driven by stronger demand from the U.S., as well as a more competitive Canadian dollar. Canadian industrial markets remained active but subdued from an expansionary demand perspective, with the exception of Calgary, where recent strength in energy prices has injected some adrenalin into demand for industrial space. For other major markets, overall absorption was 160,000 square feet (sf) in the second quarter. Make no mistake though, business confidence, along with the prospect of expansionary demand, is picking up in most markets. Vacancy dropped to 6.2% over the quarter and development activity is on an upswing. The dominant Greater Toronto Area industrial market, for example, has 7.1 million square feet (msf) rising based on positive expectations. WESTERN CANADA The Alberta economy has grown at an average rate of 4.3% over the past four years, nearly twice the national average. A recent upswing in oil and natural gas prices after a frigid winter and a rapid rise in production of crude oil ignited Calgary’s industrial market driving record absorption over the first half of 2014. These massive swings in momentum are not new for Alberta’s industrial markets. As huge oil sands projects ramp up, so does demand for industrial space. However, the scarcity of serviced land in Calgary and surrounding markets has limited development and sale opportunities, which has increased both lease and sale rates. With the strike at the Port of Vancouver in the rear view mirror, B.C. is expecting real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2014 (RBC). Weak base metal prices have subdued B.C.’s mining growth, which curtailed expansionary industrial demand in the second quarter. However, metal prices, such as copper, may be on the rise due to a pick-up of demand from China, which saw June factory orders expand at the fastest rate in 18 months. STATS ON THE GO Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Y-O-Y CHANGE 12-MONTH FORECAST Overall Vacancy 6.3% 6.2% -0.1pp Direct Net Asking Rents (psf/yr) $5.77 $6.05 4.9% YTD New Supply (sf) 5,537,799 3,747,823 -32.3% OVERALL RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 2014 psf/yr OVERALL NET RENTAL RATE OVERALL VACANCY RATE CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS11.2 3.9 5.4 8.0 10.1 3.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD sf(millions) Q2 2014CANADA INDUSTRIAL SNAPSHOT MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
  • 2. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. VANCOUVER Vancouver remains a tale of two markets with a very strong acquisition climate. Lack of availability is pushing pricing to historic highs, and cap rates are being achieved that would have been unfathomable two years ago. While expansionary demand momentum softened significantly over the second quarter, producing absorption of 46,000 sf, a positive rebound in momentum could become the story of the latter half of 2014 due to a strengthening U.S. economy and potentially stronger demand out of China. Vacancy remains tight at 4.2% but development activity is strong with in excess of 2 msf of product under construction. CALGARY It would seem a far leap to achieve in excess of 3 msf of positive absorption in Calgary’s industrial market in one quarter, yet that is exactly what happened in the second quarter. A pick-up in both oil and natural gas prices, along with an acceleration in oil output, helped contribute to this exceptional growth. Continued improvement in the U.S. and China could mean oil price stability at higher prices over the next few quarters, which would support continued growth across Calgary’s industrial markets. Vacancy fell significantly over the quarter to 5.0% from 7.4%, though displacement of space as tenants relocate into newly committed space will provide some relief in the quarters to come. Over 1 msf in new developments under construction will arrive at market over the next year. EDMONTON Leasing activity strengthened across Edmonton’s industrial markets over the second quarter. Land sales in Acheson have been strong for the first half of 2014, with developers positioning themselves for the next wave of new developments within this lower cost alternative market. With output from the province’s oil sands projected to more than double to 4.1 million barrels a day by 2025, growth in Edmonton’s industrial market will remain active as long as oil prices remain stable. Alberta added almost 82,000 jobs last year, while the rest of Canada experienced overall losses. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Alberta would pass Quebec as the country’s second largest provincial economy within three years. CENTRAL CANADA Ontario’s constrained pace of economic growth over the first quarter of 2014 caused GDP growth estimates to fall to 2.3% for 2014 (RBC). Everyone has been waiting for the export sector to kick into gear, and it appears that this is finally taking place. The province is expected to benefit from a strengthening U.S. economy and lower Canadian dollar thanks to Ontario’s close ties to that massive market. This will only improve as we move into 2015. Despite a tough start to the year, manufacturing sales grew by 3.3% in the second quarter compared to the same period a year ago. Improving conditions are also providing the confidence that companies need to ramp up their capital investments. Statistics Canada’s Investment Intentions survey released in February forecast a 3.7% increase in non-residential spending for 2014 – much improved compared to the 4.5% decline in 2013. While increased demand will impact southern Ontario in a more pronounced fashion, Montreal also stands to benefit given its proximity to U.S. markets. Positive absorption is expected to return by late 2014 and into 2015. Generally, central Canadian markets have struggled from a growth perspective, with combined absorption across Ottawa, Montreal and Toronto of negative 1.3 msf over the first half of 2014. However, the shift in momentum was evidenced in the second quarter when the combined absorption rose to negative 100,000 sf – a definite step in the right direction. The Greater Toronto Area market is by far the largest in Canada, and the third largest in North America, and is the one to watch as a strong U.S. economy drives both optimism and demand for industrial space. GREATER TORONTO AREA Business optimism is improving across GTA industrial markets, but expansionary demand has yet to gain any real traction. What we are no longer seeing is a deep bleeding of space to market -- an indication that a positive shift is underway. While overall absorption has been marginally negative, a robust U.S. economy will continue to increase demand for goods and services, which are enhanced by a low Canadian dollar. The vacancy rate has been edging tighter over the past year or so and now sits at 5.5% - the lowest it’s been since before the recession of 2008. Even smaller block availabilities are seeing reduced availabilities and upward pressure on rental rates, which could stimulate development activity in this product category. Development activity targeting large block users is much more active than it was one year ago. About 7.1 msf of new development is either underway or about to start. This speaks to the anticipation of much better economic times to come, manifested by a significant pick-up in demand as we move through 2014 and into 2015. Owner-occupier demand remains red hot across GTA industrial markets, with the greatest limitation being product availability. Demand for land is also strong, though increases in development charges are leading to creative solutions, including the redevelopment of older properties. OVERALL VACANCY RATES VS. SUPPLY 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD msf NEW SUPPLY VACANCY RATE
  • 3. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. MONTREAL Business optimism is strengthening across Montreal’s industrial markets. While expansionary demand was marginally positive over the second quarter, Montreal, like Toronto, will benefit from much stronger growth and business demand driven by stronger U.S. demand for Canadian goods and services. That said, two notable factory closings over the quarter brought unwanted news to the market. This included Energizer Holdings’ announcement that it will shut down its Montreal manufacturing operations as activities are relocated to Delaware. While leasing activity remains weak and vacancy rose modestly to 9.6%, expansionary momentum should gain traction as we move into 2015. Institutional investors, including HOOPP, Forgestone Capital and Canderel recently purchased the former Liberty Business Park in the borough of Saint-Laurent. OTTAWA The Ottawa region continues to experience very weak overall demand as the federal government’s aim to achieve a balanced budget suppresses activity. Real GDP growth was only 0.1% across 2013 and is expected to increase to a modest 0.9% in 2014. As Canada’s capital, Ottawa’s industrial market remains generally stable from both a vacancy and a rental rate perspective. Sectors connected to the global economy, such as technology, will see some growth due to a strengthening U.S. economy. Overall absorption across 2013 averaged negative 12,000 sf per quarter. Over 100,000 sf of positive absorption occurred in the first quarter of 2014, though absorption was negligible in the second quarter. Momentum will likely remain weak into 2015. ATLANTIC CANADA Halifax, Moncton, and St. John’s are the largest industrial markets in Atlantic Canada. Overall, Atlantic Canada has seen slow growth over the first half of 2014 and will likely see modest improvement over the balance of the year and into 2015. In New Brunswick, the good news has been that job gains in the private sector have offset the impact of job losses in the public sector. In addition, non-residential building construction has gained some momentum, with preliminary work beginning for the $450-million modernization plan for the Irving pulp and paper mill. New Brunswick’s manufacturing and export sector remains challenged, however, with shipments at a two-year low. Nova Scotia presents a slightly more optimistic story, with real GDP growth for 2014 forecast at 2.2%, boosted in part by a full year of production at the Deep Panuke offshore natural gas field. Further, Nova Scotia has seen an upswing in international merchandise exports because of strong demand for seafood products from China. In addition, it will see an estimated $335 million invested in the 180- km undersea link project in 2014 and benefit from projects relating to the $25-billion shipbuilding contract for the Arctic offshore patrol ships (RBC). Newfoundland and Labrador experiences the most volatile shifts in GDP growth in the country. 2013 saw real growth of about 7.9% after a 4.4% decline in 2012. This year, growth is forecast to fall back to 0.6% (RBC). The mining sector was hit by weak iron ore prices and lower than expected production on top of the impact of severe weather conditions. A return to health in this sector is expected over the long run, and a number of capital investment projects are underway that will raise production of iron ore in 2015 and beyond. Statoil recently contracted Seadrill West Hercules to drill the Flemish Pass Basin off Newfoundland. Among Statoil’s three oil finds in the basin is the Bay du Nord, its biggest oil discovery outside of Norway, where an estimated 300 to 600 million barrels of recoverable oil exists. Projects like these will put the momentum back into the St. John’s industrial market. HALIFAX The overall vacancy rate rose over the second quarter to 11.2% from 9.3% one quarter ago. The bulk of this occurred in Burnside Business Park, where vacancy increased to 11.1% from 9.0% last quarter. A significant amount of negative absorption was caused by the contraction of Armour Transport, which vacated 50,000 sf at 71 Thornhill Drive. Sleeman’s Brewery also brought 30,000 sf back into the Burnside market. Spending on major project initiatives is expected to increase by 11% in 2015 as the Maritime link project gets underway. Projects directly impacting Halifax include the MacDonald Bridge renovation, construction of the recently approved Nova Centre, and continued preparation work at the Halifax shipyard to upgrade and modernize the facility to accommodate the building of Artic Offshore Patrol Vessels. These projects and others should bring stability to Halifax’s industrial market over the latter half of 2014 and into 2015. MONCTON The completion of the fully-occupied 385,000-sf Kent Distribution Center in Caledonia Industrial Park during the second quarter represents a 40% expansion for Kent, and the space they displace will provide opportunities for tenants looking for competitively priced space in the market. Vacancy is now 12.4%. An additional 200,000 sf of new construction will be added over the next year. While about 40% of this space will be displaced as tenants relocate into their new premises, the balance represents growth of the existing tenant base within Moncton's industrial market. Moncton is one of the most vibrant and best-located areas in the Atlantic region and an overall pick up in demand strength is expected across the latter half of 2014 and into 2015. OVERALL VACANCY RATES VS. NET ABSORPTION -3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% -5 0 5 10 15 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD msf NET ABSORPTION VACANCY RATE
  • 4. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. St. John’s The St. John’s industrial market remains a landlords’ market, achieving some of the highest net rental rates in the country. That said, new product has been arriving into the market, which is drawing tenants out of older product and putting upward pressure on vacancy, particularly in older product. The vacancy rate is now at 9.5%, up from 5.5% one year ago. Acquisitions and build-to-suit facilities are expected to remain popular among tenants in the St. John’s market. Stable oil production and an increase in capital investments in the energy and mining sectors, particularly in support of the drilling program within the Bay du Nord, will ensure the industrial markets continue to see expansionary demand through 2014 and into 2015. CANADA SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL VACANCY RATE UNDER CONSTRUCTION YTD CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS CURRENT QUARTER ABSORPTION YTD ABSORPTION WEIGHTED AVERAGE NET RENTAL RATE WEIGHTED AVERAGE GROSS RENTAL RATE Vancouver 195,299,565 4.2% 2,008,334 1,889,007 45,942 1,662,616 $8.00 $11.19 Calgary 114,172,756 5.0% 1,441,084 828,585 3,048,356 3,290,356 $9.41 $13.24 Toronto 768,748,839 5.5% 7,061,643 1,030,083 (101,842) (291,044) $5.34 $8.36 Ottawa 21,857,719 6.0% 0 0 (9,738) 108,550 $8.48 $13.42 Montreal 284,816,148 9.6% 178,000 165,750 10,953 (1,111,261) $5.00 $8.10 Fredericton 463,925 16.2% 0 0 (6,905) (4,555) $7.48 $12.08 Saint John 432,031 16.9% 0 0 17,650 15,290 $6.86 $10.41 Moncton 3,812,565 12.4% 200,000 385,000 318,152 242,630 $6.01 $8.88 Halifax 7,543,358 11.2% 0 32,000 (146,288) (163,576) $7.22 $11.60 St. John’s 3,429,323 9.5% 59,000 117,398 32,792 44,752 $10.52 $13.67 TOTALS 1,400,576,229 6.2% 10,948,061 3,747,828 3,209,072 3,793,758 $6.05 $9.21 * RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR VACANCY RATES 4.2% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 9.6% 16.2% 16.9% 12.4% 11.2% 9.5% Vancouver Calgary Toronto Ottawa Montreal Fredericton Saint John Moncton Halifax St. John's
  • 5. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2014 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Significant 2014 Lease Transactions MARKET SUBMARKET TENANT/BUYER SQUARE FEET Hopewell Distribution Park Phase 2 Building A Calgary Southeast Canadian Tire Corporation 454,977 Stoney Industrial Center – Building 6 Calgary Northeast Excel Global Logistics Inc. 416,412 6780 Creditview Road Toronto Mississauga SCI Logistics 324,600 Stoney Industrial Center – Building 5 Calgary Northeast Target Corporation 299,812 4700 47th Street Calgary Southeast Enerflex Ltd. 281,417 6810 40th Street SE Calgary Southeast Dominion Warehousing 247,093 5800 76th Ave SE Building 1 Calgary Southeast Sears 243,947 16068 Portside Road Vancouver Richmond Western Canada Express Inc. 212,761 501 Palladium Drive Ottawa Kanata MobilShred / Lockheed Martin 212,466 107 Alfred Kuehne Blvd. Toronto Brampton Calyx Transportation Group Inc. 192,712 Significant 2014 Sale Transactions MARKET SUBMARKET BUYER PURCHASE PRICE SQUARE FEET 86 Pillsworth Road Toronto Bolton Prime Industrial Real Estate Trust $57,000,000 627,791 6757 Northwest Drive Toronto Mississauga LaSalle Investment Management $34,461,000 451,510 501 Palladium Drive Ottawa Kanata BMO Life Assurance (75% Interest) $25,294,287 258,341 South Burnaby Corporate Centre Vancouver Burnaby Investors Group $47,600,000 223,103 9740 27th Street NE; 8241 30th Street SE; 700 58th Ave. SE Calgary NE & SE York Realty Inc. $22,800,000 219,432 107 Alfred Kuehne Toronto Brampton Kingsett Capital Inc. $16,500,000 192,712 1235 Ormont Drive Toronto North York Caplink Limited $9,100,000 177,935 351 Gifford Street Vancouver New Westminster 351 Gifford Holdings Ltd. $8,300,000 174,664 Significant 2014 Construction Completions MARKET SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT COMPLETION DATE SQUARE FEET 2 1 Merchant Road Toronto Caledon Acklands Grainger Q2 2014 537,248 Boundary Bay Logistics Centre Vancouver Delta APPS Cargo Q1 2014 439,970 Kent Building Distribution Center New Brunswick Moncton Kent Building Supplies Q2 2014 385,000 2675 Steeles Avenue Toronto Brampton Shoppers Drug Mart Q2 2014 311,065 550 Terminal Avenue Vancouver Vancouver Mercedes Dealership Q1 2014 164,000 Great Planes Business Park Calgary Southeast Tree of Life Q2 2014 137,650 35 Brownridge Road Toronto Halton Hills Speculative Build Q2 2014 105,475 19347 24 Avenue (Blackthorn IV) Vancouver Surrey Speculative Build Q2 2014 101,225 Significant Projects Under Construction MARKET SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT ANND/OR DEVELOPER COMPLETION DATE SQUARE FEET 13304 Coleraine Drive Toronto Bolton Canadian Tire Q4 2014 1,491,814 12333 Airport Road Toronto Caledon Hopewell Development Q3 2014 575,000 3275 Argentia Road Toronto Mississauga Prologis Canada Inc. Q3 2014 531,928 5827 274th Street Vancouver Langley Masonite Q2 2015 270,000 Queensborough Logistics Centre Vancouver New Westminster Speculative Build Q4 2014 245,000 572&588 Aero Drive NE Building 2 Calgary Northeast YYC Global Logistics Center Q4 2014 227,000 Golden Ears Business Centre – Bldg 300 Vancouver Pitt Meadows Speculative Build Q3 2014 219,330 Airport Crossing Building 1 Calgary Northeast Enright Capital Ltd./Sun Life Q3 2014 202,002