The weekly report provides an overview of currency exchange rates and the Indian rupee from September 2nd to September 6th, 2013. The rupee posted its largest monthly decline in at least 18 years but rebounded on aggressive central bank intervention. The report analyzes currency exchange rates, gives support and resistance levels for various currency pairs, and outlines upcoming economic indicators and international news that may impact currencies.

1. 02 SEPT - 06 SEPT 2013
W E E K L Y
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E
P
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T
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2. REFERENCE
RATE (USD)
66.5742
REPO RATE 7.25%
REVERSE REPO 6.25%
CRR 4%
INFLATION 5.79%
KEY RATESAs on 30/08/2013
MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK
The Indian rupee posted its biggest
monthly fall in at least 18 years but
gained for a second straight session on
Friday as aggressive central bank
intervention and positive local and
regional cues helped. The rupee
recovered sharply to the day's high of
66 per dollar following the intervention
and was trading at 66.010. The rupee's
8.1 per cent fall is likely the worst
performance for the currency ever. The
Indian central bank likely sold dollars via
state-run banks starting at around
66.60 rupee levels. The government is
seeking support from other emerging
market countries for coordinated
intervention in offshore foreign
exchange markets after a currency rout
for the past three months.
Government pushes for joint
forex intervention from other
emerging markets.
Rupee ends at 65.70/71; posts
biggest monthly fall in at least
18 years.
Sterling supported by improving
UK data, early rate hike bets
intact.
CURRENCIES
PREVIOUS
RATE
CURRENT
RATE
% CHANGE
USDINR 63.9900 66.7275 4.27
EURINR 85.4925 88.2625 3.24
GBPINR 99.7250 103.4850 3.77
JPYINR 64.6375 67.9500 5.12

3. USDINR
EURINR
USDINR last week followed its bull rally and rebounded from the crucial mark of 70.0000 and
corrected in last two sessions closing below 23.6% retracement level of 67.1800. If this correction
continues then 38.2% retracement of 65.5000 will act as strong support. Volatility is expected to
continue as it is still in the strong zone where 68.0000 will act as near term resistance for it.
EURINR continued its bull rally and tested new highs last week but correction found support around
trend line coming from previous lows. Now, if it trades below this trend line 86.7000 will act as
strong support while if strength continues then 90.0000 will act as crucial level above which again it
may lead towards new highs.

4. CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
USDINR 65.5800 64.7000 63.8000 68.0000 69.0000 70.0000
EURINR 87.5000 86.4000 85.0000 90.0000 91.1000 92.2000
GBPINR 102.3000 101.0000 99.2000 105.4000 107.2500 109.5000
JPYINR 66.7000 65.5000 63.8500 69.2000 70.1000 71.0000
PIVOT TABLE
DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT
BLOOMBERG
ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS
LEVEL
03-Sept-2013
7:30
PM
US
ISM
Manufacturing
PMI
54.2 55.4
04-Sept-2013
06:00
PM
US Trade Balance -38.6B -34.2B
05-Sept-2013
06:00
PM
US
Unemployment
Claims
330k 331k
06-Sept-2013
06:00
PM
US
Unemployment
Rate
7.4% 7.4%
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES
 Yen Gains Versus Majors on Emerging-Market Concern; Krone
Slides.
 Dollar Climbs on Taper Bets Amid Syria Tension; Rupee
Tumbles.
 Bitcoin Exchange Tradehill Pauses for Regulatory Reasons.

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