Here are three things I hope to achieve: 1. Provide insightful analysis and recommendations to help address logistical constraints in Sub-Saharan African ports and their hinterlands. 2. Facilitate productive discussions on how to improve infrastructure like roads, railways, and cold storage to better connect ports and regional markets. 3. Offer a balanced perspective on opportunities and challenges with growing trade and investment from countries like China, considering both economic benefits as well as need for responsible partnerships.

1. Logistical Constraints in Sub-Saharan
Ports and Their Hinterland
25 April 2012

2. “If you’re smart enough to make [grow]
it, aggressive enough to sell it –
then any dummy can get it there.”
Lalonde quoted in Langley (1986)

3. Dummy #1
“…it’s late because of a dock strike …”

4. Dummy #2
“…I can assure you your order is on the water …”

5. Dummy #3
“…your shipment is waiting to be released …”

6. Dummy #4
“…looks like your order has been bumped …”

7. Dummy #5
“…sure, we can do drop shipments …”

8. Dummy #6
“…there is a holdup at customs …”

9. Shifting Seas

10. Hopeless Case Or Hopeless Forecast?
May 2000
“Floods in Mozambique; threats of
famine in Ethiopia (again); mass
murder in Uganda; the implosion
of Sierra Leone; and a string of
wars across the continent. The new
millennium has brought more
disaster than hope to Africa.
Worse, the few candles of hope are
flickering weakly.”

11. Hopeless Case Or Hopeless Forecast?
December 2011
“Since The Economist regrettably
labelled Africa ‘the hopeless
continent’ a decade ago, a
profound change has taken
hold.”

12. The Lions Of Africa Starts To Roar
2001-2010 2011-2015
Angola 11.1 China 9.5
China 10.5 India 8.2
Myanmar 10.3 Ethiopia 8.1
Nigeria 8.9 Mozambique 7.7
Ethiopia 8.4 Tanzania 7.2
Kazakhstan 8.2 Vietnam 7.2
Chad 7.9 Congo 7.0
Mozambique 7.9 Ghana 7.0
Cambodia 7.7 Zambia 6.9
Rwanda 7.6 Nigeria 6.8
World’s Ten Fastest Growing Economies
Economist Intelligence Unit (2011)

13. Burgeoning Traffic In The Region’s Ports
Region % Change CAGR
East Africa 374.6% 14.1%
Southern Africa 294.4% 11.4%
West Africa 248.7% 9.5% Ocean Shipping Consultants (2008); UNCTAD Stats (2009)

14. Burgeoning Traffic In The Region’s Ports
AICD Ports Database (2008)

15. Burgeoning Traffic In The Region’s Ports
Region % Change CAGR
East Africa 278% 10.7%
Southern Africa 532% 18.2%
West Africa 265% 10.2% Ocean Shipping Consultants (2008)

16. We Can’t Keep Up With Demand
AICD Ports Database (2008)

17. We Can’t Keep Up With Demand
AICD Ports Database (2008)

18. Globalisation Made The World Flat!
Spot your vessel …..
Vesseltracker.com (2012)

19. Not Like That! Like This …
Rodrique (2010)

20. Are We Just Not Performing?
Container Handling Performance Across Sub-Saharan Africa Ports
Ocean Shipping Consultants (2008); AICD (2009)
Competing against Port Said – 40 moves/hour & Tangier Med over 30 moves/hour
Average for other ports typically 20 – 30 moves/hour

21. Are We Just Not Performing?
Region
Container handling (ship-to-
gate) US$
General cargo (over-the-
quay per metric ton) US$
East Africa 135-275 6-15
Southern Africa 110-243 11-15
West Africa 100-320 8-15
North Africa 110-260 8-15
Rest of world 80-154 7-9
Region Truck cycle times (hours) Dwell times (days)
Minimum Average Maximum Minimum Average Maximum
East Africa 3.5 5.5 24 5 12 28
Southern Africa 2 4 12 4 6 8
West Africa 6 10 24 11 15 30
North Africa 2.5 4 6 5 8 20
Gateway Container Handling and General Cargo Costs
Ocean Shipping Consultants (2008)
Typical Truck Cycle and Dwell Times

22. We Just Don’t Get To Practice Enough
LSCI data from UNCTAD (2008, 2009)

23. This Is What Is Supposed To Happen …
Rodrique & Notteboom (2010)

24. Gateways, Corridors And Inland Ports
Rodrique & Notteboom (2010)

25. Spatial Modelling For Optimising Hinterland
Harvestchoice.org (2011)

26. Roads – Connecting The Dots
African Development Bank (2008)

27. Roads - The Burden Of Maintenance
Corridor Length (km)
Roads in good
condition (%)
Trade density
(US$
million/km)
Implicit speed
(km/hour)
Freight tariff
(US$/tonne-
km)
Western 2050 72 8.2 6 0.08
Central 3280 49 4.2 6.1 0.13
Eastern 2845 82 5.7 8.1 0.07
Southern 5000 100 27.9 11.6 0.05
Teravaninthom and Rablland (2008)

28. African Road Rage!

29. Railways - Not Pulling Their Weight
World Bank (2011)

30. Cold Chain…Plug points?...Electricity?
African Development Bank (2008)

31. Port-Management Models
Prevalence of Alternative Institutional Models in Africa Ports
AICD & World Bank (2009)

32. Growing Pace of Institutional Reform
“Institutional reform is a prerequisite for the modernization of Africa’s ports.
Positive signs of reform have appeared, and the pace is increasing, but much
remains to be done.”
Vagliasindi (2008)

33. What Needs To Change?
Rodrique (2010)

34. Enter The Dragon …
Inflows of FDI from China into Sub-Saharan Africa
UN Comtrade (2011)

35. And Then Some …
Composition of FDI Stocks in Sub Saharan Africa from BICs
UNCTAD (2006); Chinese Authorities

36. Context Matters, But History Is Not Destiny
Frost (2011)
“Africa could be on the brink of an economic
take-off, much like China was 30 years ago and
India 20 years ago.” – World Bank

37. The Size Of The Prize
The Economist (2010)

38. The Size Of The Prize
The Economist (2010)

39. Africa Rising
The Economist ends its lead editorial with a helpful reminder:
“Autocracy, corruption and strife will not disappear overnight.
But at a dark time for the world economy, Africa’s progress is
a reminder of the transformative promise of growth.”

40. What Are The Three Things You Hope To
Achieve?
“Demosthenes, the greatest of
Athenian orators, was asked
what the three tests of a great
speech were. “Action, action
and action‟ was his reply.”
James C. Humes