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TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS: The future just isn’t the same anymore…I see…Uhhh…Kurt AckermannGetaway Travel & Tourism Conference            1 September 2011     	Ozinsky & Ackermann
SMART PHONES ON(BUT SILENT)Conference Hashtag:#GT&TC2011@kurt_a
Once upon a time back in 2010…
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…
The futureNightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
The futureNightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
The futureNightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
circa-2012Future Tourism Economy(pessimist view)
The futureNightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)Aristocratic elite travellersTourism industry as anarcho-syndicalist commune(Lovely muck)Future Tourism Economy(optimist view)NostalgicPython-ic
OK, let’s get serious…
“What ARE the key developments affecting the future of South Africa’s tourism industry?”
First, a brief pause to get defensive…
1400+ industriesNo ‘Tourism’ per se
‘Industry’vs.‘Economy’Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
Overcapacity!Undercapacity!MunicipalitiesBad marketing!0No DomesticFocus!Poor Service Quality!SMMEsPrivate SectorNational DepartmentSA TourismDMOs0Global Recession!0Airline Fees!
(2010 IMNSHO)
Brand improvement
2010 a technical and football success“FIFA President, SeppBlatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising a successful World Cup.” (12 July 2010)
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
“I am shocked, shocked…”
“Loss of permanent visitors”“The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a hard lesson: they over-estimate the benefits beforehand and get stuck with under-utilised infrastructure afterwards. They face an extended period of anti-climax…”October 2007
SINCE 2010
Jozi, Cape Town IRT bus services
High-speed railPhoto: urbanjoburg
MPUMALANGA…the implosion continuesTSHWANE…getting it togetherBUFFALO CITY?!?
400+2011 est. 15 July218Rhino poaching 31 May173Source: SAN Parks data via stoprhinopoaching.com
TODAY
Bookings DownOver-capacity‘Oh *(@#!’Too ExpensiveLong Haul is DeadTourism Stats
“A rising tide lifts all boats”SA Economic Output DoubledSouth Africa’s GDP
World GDP Growth
Tourism Core Market GDP Growth
Your Traditional Customer
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
The Pain is Real.Photo: flickr.com/allforblue
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
Key FactsOverseas and domestic travel down
African land travel volume up
Total spend up
Weak job creation
Government spending up
Innovation required to stay competitiveKey ActionsR35bn government investment in tourism infrastructure by 2020
Resolution of land ownership obstacles by 2012
Minimum work standards by 2012
Domestic tourism focus
5 new African offices
More regional programmes (TFCAs)
Emphasize rural & less visited areas
TBCSA or similar at provincial and city levels
National Convention Bureau
PCO accreditation
National VICs using national database
Grading extensions beyond accommodation
Government procurement from BEE-compliant service providers onlyThenNow
NowThen
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
Companies Act 71 of 2008
Electricity Tariff IncreaseElectricity price doubles twice in 10 years90%77%
BRIC + SPhoto: China News
Lion’s share of GDP growth to 2014Not driven by consumer spendingBigger economies than G7 by 2050
National Standard for Responsible Tourism
Cape Town DeclarationRESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONSShaping sustainable spaces into better placesWe, representatives of inbound and outbound tour operators, emerging entrepreneurs in the tourism industry, national parks, provincial conservation authorities, all spheres of government, tourism professionals, tourism authorities, NGOs and hotel groups and other tourism stakeholders, from 20 countries in Africa, North and South America, Europe and Asia; having come together in Cape Town to consider the issue of Responsible Tourism in Destinations have agreed this declaration…200220011996HighExpectations2004200620082009201120112010Calabash Tours (PE): Overall Winner 2004Calabash Tours (PE): Best for Poverty Reduction 2004Dyer Island Cruises: Best In a Marine Environment 2006 – Highly CommendedVoluntours: Best Volunteering Organisation 2008- Highly CommendedStormsriver Adventures: Best for Poverty Reduction 2008- Highly CommendedGreat Plains Conservation: Best for Conservation of Wildlife and Habitats 20092011Cape Town: Best Destination 2009IOC Sport and Environment Award 2011KZN: Best Destination 2011 - LonglistedSANS 1162:2011National Standard for Responsible Tourism
HEADED OUR WAY
Tourism BEE Charter targets ratchet up in 2013
Carbon-constrained future
?
UNCERTAINTY:Risk? or Opportunity?
LONGER TERM FACTORS
City-regions as gateways
Local Travel. Slow Travel.
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
LOHAS
“The Good Life”
OMG
+2 billion people in next 40 years…
Consider 2001 – 2011…
The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
$73.44/bbl20112.5x increasein real dollar terms$29.23/bbl2001

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